Erim - 05 omslag Vromans 5/18/05 2:29 PM Pagina 1 Reliability of Railway Systems 62 M.J.C.M. VROMANS Railway transport plays a key role in mobility in the Netherlands and other countries. It has been recognized that the on-time perfor- M.J.C.M. VROMANS mance is one of the key performance indicators in railway transport. Many different internal and external factors cause the train operations to be disturbed. Moreover, incurred delays are often propagated to other trains and to other parts of the network. Reliability of The societal, managerial, and scientific relevance of research on the on-time performance of railway systems are eminent. This thesis provides a clear picture of the reliability of railway systems. A Railway Systems railway system can be considered as a very large and complex stochastic dynamic system. “Reliability of Railway Systems” describes Reliability of Railway Systems mathematical models for the evaluation and optimization of railway timetables. Special attention is given to the allocation of running time supplements. These supplements can be very useful in con- taining delay propagation. However, the effectiveness of these supplements highly depends on the location within a train line. A surprising, but potentially effective supplement allocation rule is developed to decrease the propagation of delays. Another important subject is the heterogeneity of train traffic, or in other words the speed differences. Besides showing a strong correlation between speed differences and reliability, new measures were developed to capture the heterogeneity. Furthermore, an innovative stochastic linear program is presented that is not only able to evaluate, but also to optimize timetables. It integrates most railway dependencies, and it directly optimizes the average arrival delays. The model shows that considerable improvements are possible with respect to the current timetable in the Netherlands. Several variants of the model are described, such that the model can be used for a wide range of problems. ERIM The Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM) is the Research School (Onderzoekschool) in the field of management of the Erasmus University Rotterdam. The founding participants of ERIM are RSM Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics. ERIM was founded in 1999 and is officially accredited by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW). The research undertaken by ERIM is focussed on the management of the firm in its environment, its intra- and inter-firm relations, and its business processes in their interdependent connections. The objective of ERIM is to carry out first rate research in manage- ment, and to offer an advanced graduate program in Research in Management. Within ERIM, over two hundred senior researchers and Ph.D. candidates are active in the different research programs. From a variety of academic backgrounds and expertises, the ERIM commu- nity is united in striving for excellence and working at the forefront of creating new business knowledge. www.erim.eur.nl ISBN 90-5892-089-5 Reliability of Railway Systems Michiel Vromans Reliability of Railway Systems Betrouwbaarheid van spoorwegsystemen Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam op gezag van de rector magnificus Prof.dr. S.W.J. Lamberts en volgens besluit van het College voor Promoties. De openbare verdediging zal plaatsvinden op woensdag 6 juli 2005 om 16.00 uur door Michiel Johannes Cornelius Maria Vromans geboren te Veghel Promotiecommissie Promoteren: Prof.dr. L.G. Kroon Prof.dr.ir. R. Dekker Prof.dr.ir. J.A.E.E. van Nunen Overige leden: Prof.dr. A.P.M. Wagelmans Prof.Dr.-Ing. I.A. Hansen Prof.Dr. A. Sch¨obel Cover illustration: Part of the train line network in the Netherlands Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM) Erasmus University Rotterdam Internet: http://www.erim.nl ERIM Electronic Series Portal: http://hdl.handle.net/1765/1 ERIM Ph.D series Research in Management 62 TRAIL Thesis series T2005/7, The Netherlands TRAIL Research School ISBN 90-5892-089-5 c 2005, M.J.C.M. Vromans All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmit- ted in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the author. Acknowledgements Writing this thesis has been a lot of hard work, but for most of the time it was a lot of fun as well. Railways are not only the topic of my thesis, but have also been a hot topic in the media: train personnel not liking their schedules, much too expensive new railway lines, overcrowded trains, and above all delays. When studying the reliability of railway systems, there is always something to talk about at parties. Despite the fact that one doesn’t finish his or her thesis during social talks, there is no chance of finishing the job without other people. In fact, the summary below is just an attempt to cover the people who have really been indispensable for completing my dissertation. First of all, I would like to thank my promotor Leo Kroon, without whom I’d probably never even started writing a thesis. As my internship supervisor for my Master’s degree, he introduced me to the fascinating railway world. Although the crew duties that I created led to the detested Rondjes om de kerk and high ten- sions within Netherlands Railways, Leo asked me to apply for some more research. Not knowing the hornets’ nest ahead, I greedily accepted the opportunity to do re- search on railway delays. He also provided me with useful tips and innovative ideas. Patiently he read this thesis over-and-over again, before it could be published. Rommert Dekker was my second promotor. He was always able to quickly under- stand the problems at hand. And with his great knowledge of a wide range of logistic processes, he guided me through the labyrinth named science. A further advantage for me was his drive to send me to conferences far away. Jo van Nunen was my mental coach. Even in difficult circumstances, he could push me forward. His presence prevented me from deviating too far from the ideal path, and his overall thesis management made a five year time-line feasible. All the other colleagues at the Erasmus should also be mentioned here. Although I have been in Utrecht more often than at the university, my fellow researchers, es- pecially my fellow-lunchers, have made my period at the university an enjoyable one. My first roommate and also railway Ph.D.-candidate Leon Peeters has introduced i ii me to the practical ins-and-outs of doing research and writing in LATEX. When Leon left for Germany and Switzerland, the other fellow railway Ph.D.-candidate Ramon Lentink took over the LATEX-part. Besides that, Ramon’s presence has always had a positive influence on my output. I hope, and I’m convinced, he will finish his thesis shortly. For the last year, Niels Lang was my roommate. Where I was simulating trains, he was simulating ships: my trains were faster, but his ships carried more cookies. Thanks to the work of Leo Kroon, Rommert Dekker, Matteo Fischetti, Erwin Abbink, Dennis Huisman, Ramon Lentink and Gerrit Timmer several co-authored papers are published, or will be published shortly. The great working atmosphere at the logistics department of NS (Netherlands Railways) has always pushed me forward. Having moved four or five times, and because of the transitive nature of intern-students, a great variety of roommates has passed by. Their Belgian or Berghem-dialect, their Hungarian curses, stories and pictures of trips around the world, their presence at Stairways, and their use of Helpdesk2, all made it a lively and fruitful environment. The cooperation with ProRail has also been useful, particularly with respect to the simulation part of this thesis. Additionally, my new colleagues have helped me to survive the last six months. Besides my promotors, I want to thank Cees Boxum, Chris Coppens, Michiel van Dellen, Monique Geerdink, Gerbrand Hulshof, Ramon Lentink and Marger Verschuur for reading and correcting smaller or larger parts of my thesis. Often overwhelmed by non-understandable mathematics, they critically reviewed my English. Maar ook vrienden en familie die zich niet aan mijn Engels gewaagd hebben, hebben een belangrijke rol gespeeld. Dat zijn er te veel om op te noemen, maar bovenal wil ik mijn vader en moeder bedanken, die me al ruim 29 jaar met raad en daad bijstaan. Ook de afgelopen jaren hebben ze altijd achter me gestaan en me door de moeilijke momenten heen gesleept. Pap en mam: bedankt! Michiel Vromans Rotterdam, May 2005 Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Railway Developments in the Netherlands . 2 1.1.1 The Dutch Railway Industry . 2 1.1.2 Structure of Netherlands Railways . 6 1.2 Reliability, Robustness, Stability, and Punctuality . 9 1.3 Aim and Scope of the Thesis . 14 1.4 Relevance of the Thesis . 15 1.4.1 Scientific Relevance . 15 1.4.2 Social Relevance . 16 1.4.3 Managerial Relevance . 16 1.5 Outline of the Thesis . 17 2 Timetabling and Delays 19 2.1 Introduction to Timetabling . 19 2.1.1 Cyclicity . 25 2.1.2 Symmetry . 25 2.2 Timetabling at Netherlands Railways . 29 2.2.1 Central and Local Planning . 29 2.2.2 From OHT to Daily Plan . 30 2.3 Operations and Dispatching . 31 2.4 Disturbances and their Causes . 32 2.4.1 Size and Distribution of Disturbances . 33 2.4.2 Sources of Disturbances . 33 2.5 Interdependencies and Secondary Delays . 35 2.6 Planning and Reliability . 37 2.6.1 Line Plan and Timetable .