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Factores Desencadenantes Y Procesos De Cambio Político En El Mundo Árabe

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Factores Desencadenantes Y Procesos De Cambio Político En El Mundo Árabe CIDOB • Barcelona Centre for International for Affairs Centre CIDOB • Barcelona documentos E-ISSN: 1887-1801 CIDOB Mediterráneo y Oriente Medio 19 FACTORES DESENCADENANTES Y PROCESOS DE CAMBIO POLÍTICO EN EL MUNDO ÁRABE Inmaculada Szmolka Profesora titular, Departamento de Ciencia Política y de la Administración, Universidad de Granada Esta publicación ha sido realizada en el marco del proyecto financiado por el Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad: «Persistencia del autoritarismo y procesos de cambio político en el norte de África y Oriente Próximo: consecuencias sobre los regímenes políticos y el escenario internacional» (CSO2012- 32917). El CIDOB forma parte de este proyecto de investigación como ente promotor observador (EPO). Asimismo, la investigadora forma parte del proyecto de investigación financiado por el Institut Català Internacional per la Pau: «Les revoltes àrabs. De la Violència unilateral a la guerra: Participació i impacte de l’Islam polític» (2011 RICIP00011). Quisiera agradecer a Eduard Soler los comentarios sugeridos para la mejora de este documento de trabajo Introducción quinta ola de cambio político en Sumario la región del norte de África A raíz de las revoluciones y Oriente Próximo1, pero no Introducción .............................................................................................................................................. 1 y revueltas que estallaron a Factores estructurales contextuales ........................................................................................ 2 ante una quinta ola de de- partir de diciembre de 2010, Desarrollo económico y social ............................................................................................... 2 mocratizaciones (Szmolka, se han abierto distintos pro- Aspectos religiosos y étnicos .................................................................................................. 3 2012). Hasta el momento, cesos de cambio político en Los regímenes políticos antes de las revueltas .......................................................... 4 hemos visto caer los regíme- Tipología de los regímenes árabes ........................................................................................ 4 la región del norte de África Perennidad en el poder de los dirigentes árabes .......................................................... 5 nes de Ben Ali en Túnez, de y Oriente Próximo con conse- La corrupción de los regímenes árabes ............................................................................. 6 Mubarak en Egipto, de Ga- cuencias muy distintas sobre La quiebra de los regímenes autoritarios: dafi en Libia y de Saleh en las protestas y revoluciones ciudadanas ............................................................................ 8 la naturaleza de los regíme- Yemen. Sin embargo, Hamad Origen de los movimientos de contestación social ............................................... 9 nes políticos. Así, algunos Características y valoración de las protestas y revoluciones ....................... 10 ben Isa al-Jalifa en Bahrein países árabes han iniciado el Acción internacional de respuesta a la Primavera Árabe ................................ 11 resistió la marea de deman- camino hacia la instauración Recomposición del sistema de partidos y de la oposición .............................. 11 das democráticas de sus ciu- Reformas constitucionales ......................................................................................................... 13 democrática, mientras que dadanos y al-Assad en Siria Procedimiento .................................................................................................................................. 14 otros se han conformado con Consenso sobre el proceso constitucional .................................................................. 14 libra una encarnizada lucha una liberalización parcial de Contenido y alcance ..................................................................................................................... 15 contra los opositores. Por sus sistemas políticos o con tí- Procesos electorales .......................................................................................................................... 16 otro lado, se han emprendi- Convocatoria y carácter de las elecciones ................................................................... 16 midas reformas políticas con Sistema electoral ............................................................................................................................. 18 do cambios legales que afec- escasas repercusiones sobre el Limpieza y control del proceso electoral ..................................................................... 20 tan a los marcos respectivos pluralismo y la competencia Trascendencia de las elecciones .......................................................................................... 21 de los partidos y movimien- política. E, incluso, encontra- Conclusiones .......................................................................................................................................... 22 tos políticos (Túnez, Egipto, Referencias bibliográficas ........................................................................................................... 24 mos casos de inmovilismo y de persistencia del autoritaris- mo cerrado que caracterizaba algunos regímenes políticos. 1. Por cambio político entendemos las transformaciones realizadas en un régimen político y que afectan a sus normas, estructuras, actores, comportamientos y ¿Qué ha cambiado en el mundo árabe en los últimos dos años procesos. Estas transformaciones podrán llevar a una instauración democrática, a una liberalización política –más o menos profunda– o, simplemente, a cambios y cuáles son las perspectivas para la democratización de la cosméticos en el sistema político que solo suponen la parcial mutación del régimen región? Partimos de la idea de que nos encontramos ante una autoritario (Szmolka, 2012). documentos cidob MEDITERRÁNEO 19 . NOVIEMBRE 2012 1 Siria, Marruecos, Argelia, Jordania y Libia). Asimismo, se Las condiciones económicas, sociales y culturales fueron han culminado o iniciado procesos constitucionales (Egipto, percibidas como determinantes de la democratización por la Túnez, Libia, Marruecos, Omán, Siria, Mauritania y Jorda- literatura académica del desarrollo político. No obstante, no nia), aunque no, en todos los casos, las relaciones de poder. creemos que estas puedan ser consideradas requisitos para Por último, se han celebrado una veintena de procesos elec- la democracia, sino que ciertas condiciones pueden favorecer torales, con avances importantes en la competencia política y o dificultar los procesos de cambio político (Carothers, 2002; en la formación democrática del Gobierno en Túnez, Egipto, Teorell, 2010). Marruecos y Libia, aunque sin apenas repercusiones en el resto de los países árabes. Los estudios sobre el excepcionalismo democrático árabe han ex- plicado la persistencia del autoritarismo atendiendo a dife- Para evaluar el contenido y alcance de los cambios políti- rentes factores: culturales, principalmente relacionados con el cos realizados en cada uno de los países árabes, en este do- islam y la cultura árabe (Sharabi, 1988); económicos (Beblawi cumento de trabajo se recogen los siguientes aspectos. En y Luciani, 1987; Posusney, 2004: 130); históricos, basados en la primer lugar, se analizan las características demográficas, herencia colonial y en la artificialidad de las fronteras defini- culturales, económicas, sociales y políticas para ayudarnos das tras los procesos de independencia; institucionales (Lust- a comprender por qué surgen las protestas políticas y cómo Okar, 2004; Bellin, 2004); o de cultura política, explicada por el han influido en los procesos de cambio político. En segundo inmovilismo de las sociedades árabes y la subordinación de lugar, se estudian las protestas y revoluciones árabes como la sociedad civil respecto al Estado3. Algunas de estas tesis, elemento de quiebra de algunos regímenes autoritarios y principalmente culturalistas, se han venido abajo con las re- como desencadenante de los cambios políticos en estos y en cientes movilizaciones populares y los procesos de reformas otros países. En tercer lugar, se evalúa el papel de los acto- políticas que se han producido recientemente en los países res internacionales en la caída de los regímenes autoritarios árabes. y en los procesos de cambio político. Consideramos que la retirada del apoyo de las La retirada del apoyo al régimen de las Desarrollo económico y social élites que ostentan el poder, elites tradicionales propició la caída de junto con el distinto grado La relación causal entre desarro- de implicación y consenso los dirigentes árabes llo y democratización ha dado de los actores regionales y de lugar a una abundante literatu- la comunidad internacional, ra académica desde el estudio ha precipitado la caída de los regímenes de Túnez, Egipto, clásico de Lipset (1959) en el que afirmaba que las democracias, Libia y Yemen. En cuarto lugar, se examinan las transfor- para implantarse y sobrevivir, requerían de cierto grado de cre- maciones que se han producido sobre los respectivos sis- cimiento económico, social y cultural. Los estudios sobre la re- temas de partidos y en las plataformas de la oposición y se lación entre modernización socioeconómica y democratización evalúa cómo han afectado al pluralismo y a la competencia fueron seguidos de notables críticas
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