Evolución Del Mundo Árabe

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Evolución Del Mundo Árabe CENTRO SUPERIOR DE ESTUDIOS DE LA DEFENSA NACIONAL Cuadernos de Estrategia 168 Instituto Español Evolución del mundo de Estudios árabe: tendencias Estratégicos ANIVERSARIO 1964-2014 MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA Cuadernos de Estrategia 168 Instituto Español Evolución del mundo de Estudios árabe: tendencias Estratégicos Casa Árabe MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA CATÁLOGO GENERAL DE PUBLICACIONES OFICIALES http://publicacionesoficiales.boe.es/ Edita: SECRETARÍA GENERAL TÉCNICA http://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es/ © Autor y editor, 2014 NIPO: 083-14-214-0 (impresión bajo demanda) NIPO: 083-14-213-5 (edición libro-e) ISBN: 978-84-9781-992-3 (edición libro-e) Fecha de edición: octubre 2014 Imprime: Imprenta del Ministerio de Defensa Las opiniones emitidas en esta publicación son exclusiva responsabilidad del autor de la misma. Los derechos de explotación de esta obra están amparados por la Ley de Propiedad Intelectual. Ninguna de las partes de la misma puede ser reproducida, almacenada ni transmitida en ningu- na forma ni por medio alguno, electrónico, mecánico o de grabación, incluido fotocopias, o por cualquier otra forma, sin permiso previo, expreso y por escrito de los titulares del © Copyright. ÍNDICE Página Introducción ............................................................................................................. 9 Por Eduardo López Busquets Revolución y contrarrevolución............................................................................. 9 Grietas profundas ..................................................................................................... 11 Y más preguntas de fondo ...................................................................................... 12 El golfo: estabilidad y presencia reforzada........................................................ 13 El factor monárquico ................................................................................................ 13 Nuevos actores: jóvenes, mujeres, redes sociales ........................................... 14 Diversidades y sectarismos: equilibrio delicado .............................................. 14 Comunidad internacional y estados vecinos ...................................................... 15 Capítulo primero Tendencias en la península arábiga desde comienzos de la Primavera Árabe ............................................................................................ 17 Gabriel Alou Forner Introducción ............................................................................................................... 19 La adaptación al cambio ......................................................................................... 20 Nuevos actores .......................................................................................................... 23 Sectarismo e identidad............................................................................................ 25 Retos del cambio y reequilibrios de poder ......................................................... 27 La globalización del golfo ....................................................................................... 32 Las relaciones de seguridad .................................................................................. 35 Arabia Saudí: entre el inmovilismo y la reforma .............................................. 40 Bahréin: el diálogo difícil ........................................................................................ 47 Emiratos Árabes Unidos: la visión estratégica del desarrollo ...................... 51 Kuwait: ¿cincuenta años de Primavera Árabe? ................................................. 55 Omán: primavera tras el renacimiento ................................................................ 61 Qatar: de la globalización al extrañamiento regional ...................................... 67 Yemen: el cambio y sus límites ............................................................................. 73 5 Página Capítulo segundo ¿Hacia dónde nos lleva la guerra civil siria? ............................................. 79 Francisco J. Berenguer Hernández Introducción ............................................................................................................... 81 La comunidad internacional y el inicio de la guerra ........................................ 82 La responsabilidad de proteger y el antecedente libio ................................ 82 Las nuevas prioridades estratégicas de los Estados Unidos ..................... 84 Los elementos más relevantes de esta guerra ................................................. 87 Los intereses internacionales presentes en Siria ........................................ 87 Ventana de oportunidad para el yihadismo ................................................... 89 Combatientes extranjeros en Siria .................................................................. 94 El dimensionamiento de la amenaza química como detonante de una intervención militar .................................................................................... 98 Sin gas sigue habiendo guerra ......................................................................... 107 Las conversaciones de paz ............................................................................... 108 Hacia dónde nos lleva esta guerra ....................................................................... 113 En caso de victoria militar gubernamental .................................................... 113 En caso de victoria militar de la oposición .................................................... 117 El impacto para España de la guerra civil Siria ................................................ 120 Impacto general .................................................................................................. 120 Las tropas en el Líbano ..................................................................................... 120 Conclusiones .............................................................................................................. 122 Capítulo tercero Egipto: crónica de tres años convulsos ....................................................... 125 Emilio Sánchez de Rojas Díaz Introducción ............................................................................................................... 127 Mohamed Ali ........................................................................................................ 128 Las revoluciones................................................................................................. 129 Aparecen las dos tendencias políticas ........................................................... 131 Nacimiento del islamismo político de Al Afgani a Al Banna ....................... 132 Revolución de los Oficiales Libres. Período nacionalista ............................... 134 Oficiales Libres y Hermanos Musulmanes .................................................... 135 La presidencia de Nasser.................................................................................. 135 El período de Sadat ............................................................................................ 137 El período de Mubarak ............................................................................................. 138 El sultanato de Mubarak.................................................................................... 139 La influencia de los Estados Unidos antes de la revolución de 2011........ 141 El período 2010-2011 ........................................................................................ 141 Las revoluciones árabes ......................................................................................... 143 El inicio de la revolución ................................................................................... 144 La reacción norteamericana ............................................................................. 145 Sorpresa para los egipcios también ............................................................... 146 Papel de las Fuerzas Armadas ........................................................................ 147 Período posrevolucionario ..................................................................................... 148 Gobierno del SCAF ............................................................................................. 148 Entre las elecciones parlamentarias y presidenciales ................................ 150 La caída de Morsi ...................................................................................................... 156 El derrocamiento de Morsi y las nuevas elecciones presidenciales ......... 157 Islamistas tras el 30 de junio ........................................................................... 159 Insurgencia islamista en el Sinaí ..................................................................... 160 6 Página Conclusiones .............................................................................................................. 162 Resultados presidenciales ............................................................................... 162 Un futuro incierto ............................................................................................... 163 ¿Hacia una nueva república? ............................................................................ 165 Bibliografía ................................................................................................................. 166 Capítulo cuarto Libia y Túnez: dos transiciones contrapuestas .......................................
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