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Political Transition in a Post-Arab Spring Middle East: a Comparative Analysis of Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen

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Political Transition in a Post-Arab Spring Middle East: a Comparative Analysis of Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen POLITICAL TRANSITION IN A POST-ARAB SPRING MIDDLE EAST: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TUNISIA, EGYPT, AND YEMEN by DOMINIC W. MARTIN A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for Honors in the Major Program in International and Global Studies in the College of Sciences and in the Burnett Honors College at the University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida Spring Term 2014 Thesis Chair: Dr. Houman A. Sadri © 2014 Dominic W. Martin ii ABSTRACT The Arab Spring that began in Tunisia and spread throughout the Middle East shook the region. These populous movements unseated authoritarian rulers whose power and position were well entrenched, potentially setting numerous countries on a path towards democratization. This project seeks to explain why the democratic transitions within the countries of Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen have been largely unsuccessful. The large amounts of literature that flooded the academic forums through articles and books are analyzed, providing numerous explanations as to why these transitions have been unsuccessful such as polarization, deadlock, sectarianism, violence, and institutional conflict. This literature focuses on either one or several of the above-mentioned explanations while not pinning down a central cause for these phenomena, since they are all present in all three cases. This paper asserts that the cause of this hindered transition is the emphasis that these States placed upon electoral democracy. An emphasis placed on elections during transition highlighted and exacerbated factors (polarization, deadlock, sectarianism, violence, and institutional conflict) already present in these societies but kept dormant under authoritarian rule. To illustrate this the initial transitional government, representative body elected, and executive is analyzed to show how each governing unit stressed elections before a constitution. The identification of an overarching cause for the lack of fruitful transition like this project seeks to accomplish is of great importance, filling a much needed gap in the literature of comparative Middle Eastern revolutionary studies; along with providing foreign policy makers a tool to craft more impactful policy. iii To my Mother Lucy and Father Patrick, For providing and nurturing in me everything needed succeed in life Especially my deep-seated love of politics and history iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are numerous people I would like to thank and without who this thesis would not have been possible. First off I would like to thank Dr. Houman A. Sadri for serving as my thesis chair and mentor throughout my undergraduate career. I would also like to thank Dr. Waltraud Morales and Dr. Hakan Ozoglu for their time and service as thesis committee members. I also have to thank Rita Peterson, Justin Faulkner, Gail Garten, and Malia Blake who saw my potential when others did not. They exemplify the type of character needed in a successful educator, and inspired me to become one myself. Without these individuals who mentored me in my youth I would not be half the student I am today and for that I am eternally grateful. v TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Significance................................................................................................................................. 2 Literature ..................................................................................................................................... 2 Research & the Literature ........................................................................................................... 8 Research Design.......................................................................................................................... 9 End Notes .................................................................................................................................. 11 CHAPTER TWO: TUNISIA ........................................................................................................ 12 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 12 The Jasmine Revolution ............................................................................................................ 12 The National Unity Government and Initial Transition ............................................................ 15 Constituent Assembly and Elections ........................................................................................ 18 The Executive ........................................................................................................................... 23 Summer of 2013 Protests .......................................................................................................... 28 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 29 End Notes .................................................................................................................................. 32 CHAPTER THREE: EGYPT ....................................................................................................... 34 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 34 January 25th Movement ............................................................................................................. 34 SCAF & Initial Transition ........................................................................................................ 37 Parliament ................................................................................................................................. 42 The President ............................................................................................................................ 46 July 3rd Coup ............................................................................................................................. 55 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 61 End Notes .................................................................................................................................. 64 CHAPTER FOUR: YEMEN ........................................................................................................ 67 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 67 Yemeni “Revolution”................................................................................................................ 67 GCC Deal .................................................................................................................................. 71 National Dialogue and Transition ............................................................................................. 73 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 76 End Notes .................................................................................................................................. 77 CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSION............................................................................................... 78 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 78 Arab Spring Movements ........................................................................................................... 79 Initial Transition........................................................................................................................ 83 Parliament, Elections, & the NDC ............................................................................................ 85 Executive................................................................................................................................... 87 Overall Significance.................................................................................................................. 91 End Notes .................................................................................................................................. 94 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................. 96 vi ABBREVIATIONS MENA: Middle East and North Africa NDP: National Democratic Party (Mubarak Ruling Party) SCAF: Supreme Council of the Armed Forces NSF: National Salvation Front MB: Muslim Brotherhood FJP: Freedom and Justice Party SCC: Supreme Constitutional Court IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency NUG: National Unity Government (Tunisian Initial Transition Government) RCD: Constitutional Democratic Rally Party (Ben Ali’s Ruling Party) PDP: Progressive Democratic Party DPP: Democratic Patriot’s Party UGTT: Tunisian General Labour Union AQAP: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsular JMP: Joint Meeting Parties NFP: (Look up) PCND: Preparatory Committee for National Dialogue GPC: General People’s Congress (Saleh’s Ruling Party) GCC: Gulf Cooperation Council NDC: National Dialogue YSP: Yemeni
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