Self-Driving Vehicles and Driver Assistance Features; Who Caused The Accident?
Alan Moore, P.E. A.B.Moore Forensic Engineering, Inc. Orlando, FL
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 1 Overview of the available technology
• Adaptive cruise control (ACC) • Blind spot monitoring and cross traffic alert • Lane departure warning and lane keeping (LDW, LKA) • Lane centering
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 4 Overview of the available technology
• Forward Collision Warning and Automatic Emergency Braking (FCW, AEB) • Traffic signal awareness • SAE Level 4 “Full Self Driving”
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 5 Overview of the available technology
• Automakers commit to voluntary adoption of AEB by 2022. • Details of the commitment: Participating automakers commit to make AEB standard on virtually all light-duty cars and trucks with a gross vehicle weight of 8,500 pounds or less no later than Sept. 1, 2022, and on virtually all trucks with a gross vehicle weight between 8,501 pounds and 10,000 pounds no later than Sept. 1, 2025.
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 6 Overview of the available technology
• FCW alone, low-speed AEB, and FCW with AEB reduced rear-end striking crash involvement rates by 27%, 43%, and 50%, respectively1 • FCW with AEB increased rates of rear-end struck crash involvements by 20%1 • Model years 2010–2014
1Effectiveness of forward collision warning and autonomous emergency braking systems in reducing front-to-rear crash rates, Cicchino, Jessica B., Accident Analysis and Prevention February 2017
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 7 Overview of the available technology
Tesla crash rates dropped 40% after introduction of Autopilot1 1NHTSA Office of Defects Investigation #PE 16-007, 2017
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 8 Levels of Self-Driving Vehicles
Tesla Autopilot, Self-Driving Vehicles and Driver Assistance Features; Who Caused The Accident?
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 9 SAE Levels of Automation
• Level 1: Cruise Control • Levels 2-3: Adaptive cruise control and lane keeping/departure warning • Levels 4-5: Hands-off operation • The difference is the fallback performance; how much time is the driver given to respond?
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 10 Tesla Fallback performance
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 11
Slow to a safe stop under Level 4 automation Waymo Fallback performance
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 12 SAE Levels of Automation
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 13 The enabling technologies
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 15 Enabling Technologies: Sensors
• Sonar/ultrasound • Cameras (including eye-tracking) • Radar* • GPS • LIDAR • V2V/V2I*
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 16 Radar – Alnstein Video
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 17 V2V, V2I
Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) • Platooning • Traffic alerts • Advance warning of traffic • First responders • Predictive signal timing
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 18 Enabling Technologies: Actuators
• Electric Power Assist Steering (EPAS, EPS) • Throttle by wire • Electronic Stability Control (ESC) brake control
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 19 Enabling Technologies: Infrastructure
• “Cm” road mapping – Centimeter-accuracy mapping of roadways for GPS and environment recognition. • Networked signal timing
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 20 Enabling Technologies: Computing
• Image classification – MobilEye and Bayes theorem • Artificial intelligence and neural nets • Probabilistic decision making
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 21 CES 2016 Nvidia DriveNet demo video
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 22 What is on the road today?
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 23 Subaru “Eyesight” stereo cameras
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 24 Cadillac SuperCruise
• Adaptive cruise and lane centering • Only on mapped limited-access roadways • “Selfie” camera monitors driver attention
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 25 Cadillac SuperCruise
• Adaptive cruise and lane centering • Only on mapped limited-access roadways • “Selfie” camera monitors driver attention
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 26 Volvo Pilot Assist II
• Adaptive Cruise and lane centering • Requires hands on the wheel • “It is important to be aware that steering assistance may toggle between off and on at any time, without prior warning”
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 27 Mercedes Distronic
• Stereo cameras and radar • Adaptive cruise and lane centering • “Attention Assist” • Evasive Steering Assist • Active Lane Change Assist • Car-to-X Communication
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 28 Tesla
• Adaptive Cruise and lane centering • Lane change assist • Requires steering wheel feedback at irregular intervals • Audible and visual alarm at fallback (sometimes)
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 29 Audi Pre Sense Plus, circa 2012
“Audi pre sense front plus can be switched off by the driver. If it is switched off, this mode is stored on the ignition key used at that time and remains off for the user of that key until it is turned back on again. It does not default to ‘on’ at the beginning of a new journey. “ – EURO NCAP advanced, 2012
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 30 Ford, GM, Toyota, ….
• Adaptive Cruise, not all full speed range • Lane departure warning • Lane keeping assist • Forward Collision Warning • Automatic Emergency Braking
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 31 What is on the road today? Comma.ai “Openpilot”
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 32 What is on the road today? Comma.ai “Openpilot” Compatible vehicles: • Acura ILX 2016 with AcuraWatch Plus • Honda Civic 2016-2017 with Honda Sensing • Honda CR-V Touring 2015-2016 • Honda Odyssey 2018 with Honda Sensing • Acura RDX 2018 with AcuraWatch Plus • Honda Pilot 2017 with Honda Sensing • Toyota RAV-4 2016+ non-hybrid with TSS-P • Toyota Prius 2017 • Toyota RAV-4 2017 hybrid • Toyota Corolla 2017 • Lexus RX 2017 hybrid
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 33 Standards & Protocols
ISO, NHTSA, IIHS, SAE and Euro NCAP
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 34 NHTSA AEB Procedure (draft, 2014)
STP = Steel trench plate
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 39 NHTSA 2014 AEB Evaluations
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 40 IIHS and Euro NCAP AEB Target
IIHS Autonomous Emergency Braking Test Protocol (Version I), 2013 Euro NCAP Test Protocol – AEB Systems, Version 1.1, 2015
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 42 NHTSA AEB Target – Strikeable Surrogate Vehicle (SSV)
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 43 Liability and Litigation
• Current and future status • Forensic approaches
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 44 Liability and litigation – current & future status
• Current status: Drivers can blame technology for what may be driver error • Future status: Manufacturers may accept liability if vehicle was operating within design parameters. Insurance rates may lower.
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 45 Liability and litigation – forensic approaches
• Determine if vehicle was equipped with ADAS tech • Start by looking for windshield camera and bumper radar • If vehicle will power on, find settings for collision warning sensitivity and if emergency braking was disabled (unlikely in most vehicles) • Correlate EDR data to expected emergency braking deceleration profile • Replicate crash conditions with exemplar vehicle; how does it respond?
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 46 Liability and litigation – forensic approaches
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 47 Liability and litigation – forensic approaches
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 48 Liability and litigation – forensic approaches
0.64G, 8mph dV
2017 CADILLAC ESCALADE ESV PLATINUM
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 49 2015 Dodge Charger EDR data elements
NHTSA NASS Case #N-2015-73-023-V2-ACM
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 51 2015 Chrysler 200 EDR data elements
NHTSA NASS Case #N-2015-06-009-V1-ACM
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 52 2015 Camry EDR data elements
NHTSA NASS Case #N-2015-41-037-V2-ACM
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 53 Tesla “EDR” Elements – Camera Images of SUA
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 55 Tesla “EDR” Elements – Camera Images of SUA
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 56 Tesla “EDR” Elements – Camera Images of SUA
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 57 Tesla “EDR” Elements – Camera Images of SUA
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 58 Tesla “EDR” Elements – Camera Images of SUA
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 59 Tesla “EDR” Elements – Camera Images of SUA
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 60 Tesla “EDR” Elements – Camera Images of LTAP
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 61 Tesla “EDR” Elements – Camera Images of LTAP
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 62 Examples of ADAS – successes and the blooper reel
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 65 Examples of ADAS – Lane Departure Warning/Keeping
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 66 Examples of ADAS – Adaptive cruise
• 51st red light • Stopped vehicles with partial speed range ACC • Stopped vehicles above ~50mph • Radar tracking lead vehicle, but camera obscured by rain/snow
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 67 Tesla radar skip
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 68 Examples of ADAS – Automatic Emergency Braking • Balancing risk of false positives and false negatives • Frontal vs rear impact probability • Good performance only to classified objects • Forward collision mitigation • Distance used to alert driver by audible/visual/haptic warnings
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 69 Examples of ADAS – Automatic Emergency Braking
Ford F-150 recall due to false positives when passing a wide, reflective vehicle Recall #15V614000, 09/30/2015, FORWARD COLLISION AVOIDANCE: ADAPTIVE CRUISE CONTROL
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 70 Mazda Automatic Emergency Braking
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 71 Toyota Automatic Emergency Braking
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 72 Manual vs Automatic Braking
Automatic; jerk=1.9 g/s, .69g average
Manual with Dynamic Brake Support (DBS); jerk=6.7 g/s, .84g average
*Limited test data from 1 vehicle (2018 Toyota Camry) and 1 driver
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 73 Tesla Collision Warning
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 74 Volvo Pedestrian Detection at Car Dealership
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 75 Examples of ADAS – Automatic Emergency Braking Failure to classify and respond to an unusual vehicle
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 76 Examples of ADAS – Automatic Emergency Braking How did this happen?
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 77 Examples of ADAS – Automatic Emergency Braking (Tesla Florida fatal crash)
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 79 ISO 22839 – Automatic Emergency Braking
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 80 Tesla Florida fatal crash
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 81 Tesla Florida fatal crash
Final Rest
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 82 Tesla Florida fatal crash
Extraction of SD card from MCU (Media Control Unit)
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 83 Tesla Florida fatal crash– Logged Data
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 84 Tesla Florida fatal crash– Logged Data
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 85 Tesla Florida fatal crash– Logged Data
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 86 Tesla Florida Fatal Crash
DOT HS 812 481: NHTSA Special Crash Investigations: On-Site Automated Driver Assistance System Crash Investigation of the 2015 Tesla Model S 70D, January 2018
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 87 Examples of ADAS – Automatic Emergency Braking 2018 Freightliner Cascadia with Detroit Assurance 2
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 88 Examples of ADAS – Lane Centering
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 89 Tesla S Construction Site
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 90 Tesla autopilot barrier impact
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 91 Hyundai Ghost Ride
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 92 Media and Public Perception
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 93 Media and Public Perception
• Inflation of incidents • Most drivers, when interviewed, claim they won’t rely on ADAS technology. • Studies show that drivers adopt and rely on ADAS tech too quickly and place too much trust1. • Ethics - “Self-driving cars programmed to decide who dies in a crash” 2 • Using augmented reality to improve driver acceptance and Human-Machine Interface
1 Waymo Safety Report, 2017 2 Self-driving cars programmed to decide who dies in a crash, 2017, Todd Spangler, Detroit Free Press
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 94 Looking into the future
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 96 Looking into the future – edge cases
• Unusual and unpredictable scenarios • Fallback behaviors • Limiting Operational Design Domains (ODD)
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 97 Edge case – wheelchair chasing a chicken
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 98 Edge case - Machine vision inadvertent image classification
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 99 Future Work
• NHTSA NASS EDR file review, 2016+ • Fingerprinting of AEB performance in EDR pre-crash data
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 100 Alan Moore, P.E. A.B.Moore Forensic Engineering, Inc. Orlando, FL [email protected] 407-636-7337
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 102 Wrap up and Questions
March 5-7, 2018 Slide 103