Embracing the Future of Land Transportation: Valuing Flexibility in Design and Technology Options for Autonomous Vehicle Developments in Singapore
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Embracing the Future of Land Transportation: Valuing Flexibility in Design and Technology Options for Autonomous Vehicle Developments in Singapore by Huiling Eng B.Eng. Bioengineering, Nanyang Technological University, 2007 SUBMITTED TO THE SYSTEM DESIGN AND MANAGEMENT PROGRAM IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT AT THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY FEBRUARY 2017 © 2017 Huiling Eng. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created. Signature of Author: ____________________________________________________________ Huiling Eng System Design and Management Program November 15, 2016 Certified by: __________________________________________________________________ Richard de Neufville Professor of Engineering Systems, MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society Thesis Supervisor Accepted by: _________________________________________________________________ Warren Seering Weber-Shaughness Professor of Mechanical Engineering [This Page is Intentionally Left Blank] 2 Embracing the Future of Land Transportation: Valuing Flexibility in Design and Technology Options for Autonomous Vehicle Developments in Singapore by Huiling Eng Submitted to the System Design and Management Program on November 15, 2016 in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Engineering and Management ABSTRACT This thesis examines the prospects of implementing fully autonomous vehicles in Singapore, and proposes flexible design and development strategies to maximize value creation. This approach recognizes the uncertainties associated with emerging technology domains, and illustrates how an adaptive policy can enable the policymaker to apply policy levers timely to leverage upside opportunities and mitigate downside risks. A review of the autonomous vehicle developments in the industry shows that there is neither a clear consensus on the technological pathway, nor an agreement on a definitive solution to achieve full autonomy. The thesis evaluates the maturity of the technology enablers for autonomous driving capabilities using the Technology Readiness Level definitions adopted by the United States Department of Defense, and concludes that fully autonomous driving capabilities are not yet ready for the road. Based on a realistic assessment of the current state of technology, the thesis identifies three areas of uncertainty: rigor in safety validation, transition from prototyping to full- scale development, and effectiveness of autonomous vehicle deployment in improving road congestion. The thesis further discusses the policy implications specific to the context of Singapore, covering: (1) Personal and societal benefits and costs, (2) Balancing regulations with encouraging innovation, (3) Transportation as a service, (4) Pricing, (5) Ethical considerations and social dilemma, (6) Data management and privacy, (7) Social acceptance, (8) Liabilities and insurance, and (9) Infrastructure. The thesis concludes with actionable recommendations to guide the policymaker to remain capability-defined but technology-agnostic; and application-specific but solution- neutral. The recommendations are based on the following guiding principles: (1) Start small, then grow - prototype and pilot to validate hypotheses before scaling up, (2) Collaborate and leverage, through public-private partnerships, and (3) Do not be in a haste to commit - diversify and keep the options open. Thesis Supervisor : Richard de Neufville Title : Professor of Engineering Systems Institute for Data, Systems, and Society 3 [This Page is Intentionally Left Blank] 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my sponsor, Defence Science and Technology Agency (DSTA), Singapore for giving me the opportunity to pursue a postgraduate education at MIT. This would not have been possible without the support of Mr. Henry Chang, Mdm. Rosemary Yeo, and Mr. Teo Tiat Leng. Next, I would like to thank my thesis advisor, Professor Richard de Neufville, for his time, encouragement, and guidance throughout my thesis work. His insights and thoughtful comments on systems analysis and flexibility in design of technological systems are an inspiration in shaping my thesis scope and content. I am fortunate to be able to learn so much from him in the past months. I would also wish to acknowledge Assistant Professor Lynette Cheah from the Singapore University of Technology and Design who helped review this thesis and provided valuable inputs. I also valued the opportunity to participate in the Planes, Trains, and Automobiles (and Bikes) seminar series organized by the Harvard Kennedy School Taubman Center for State and Local Government, with the timely focus on “How should Policymakers Drive Autonomous Vehicles”. The diverse perspectives gathered from the discussions helped motivate my thinking in-depth about the different policy dimensions in this domain. I would also like to express my appreciation to the System Design and Management Program (SDM) faculty and staff for their assistance throughout the program, and my fellow SDM classmates for their friendship and sharing of experiences and knowledge. They have certainly made my learning journey at MIT an enriching one. Finally, I am grateful to my family and friends for their understanding and encouragement. Huiling Eng [email protected] Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA November 2016 5 [This Page is Intentionally Left Blank] 6 CONTENTS ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................... 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................... 5 LIST OF FIGURES........................................................................................................ 10 LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................... 12 LIST OF ACRONYMS ................................................................................................... 13 CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION .................................................................................. 15 1.1 Motivation ......................................................................................................... 15 1.2 Organization of Thesis ..................................................................................... 17 CHAPTER 2 – LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................ 19 2.1 Definition of Automation Levels ........................................................................ 19 2.2 Evolution of Autonomous Vehicle Technology ................................................. 23 2.3 Land Transportation in Singapore .................................................................... 29 2.3.1 Overview .................................................................................................... 29 2.3.2 Electronic Road Pricing System in Singapore ........................................... 29 2.3.3 Smart Mobility 2030 ................................................................................... 32 2.3.4 Autonomous Vehicles - Turning Vision into Reality ................................... 33 2.5 Global Investments in Autonomous Vehicle Developments ............................. 40 2.6 Government Involvement in Autonomous Vehicle Developments Globally ...... 43 2.7 Benefits and Challenges for Autonomous Vehicle Implementation .................. 50 2.7.1 Benefits ...................................................................................................... 51 2.7.2 Challenges ................................................................................................. 52 CHAPTER 3 – TECHNOLOGY READINESS AND DIFFUSION .................................. 55 3.1 Concept of Technology Readiness .................................................................. 55 3.2 Origin of Technology Readiness Level ............................................................. 56 3.3 Technology Readiness Level Scale ................................................................. 56 3.4 Technology Hype Cycle ................................................................................... 58 3.5 Concept of Technology Diffusion ..................................................................... 60 7 CHAPTER 4 – CONCEPT OF UNCERTAINTY, FLEXIBILITY, AND REAL OPTIONS 63 4.1 The Future is Uncertain .................................................................................... 63 4.2 Flexibility Can Add Value ................................................................................. 65 4.3 Real Options .................................................................................................... 67 4.4 Application to Technology Options ................................................................... 68 4.5 Application to Policymaking.............................................................................. 69 CHAPTER 5 – TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENT OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE CAPABILTIES .............................................................................................. 71 5.1 Overview .......................................................................................................... 71 5.2 System Decomposition ...................................................................................