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Nuclear power development: Global challenges and strategies

Today's global pattern of supply is not sustainable, and the future must see a mix of for environmental and other reasons by Victor M. Five years after the Earth Summit in Rio de contributing to the goals of sustainable develop- Mourogov Janeiro, a Special Session of the United Nations ment. For its entire energy chain from pro- General Assembly in June 1997 examined duction to waste disposal, it has limited emis- progress toward the goals of sustainable devel- sions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants. opment. Sustainable development is linked to currently provides about 6% of protecting the environment and thus unquestion- global energy and 17% of global sup- ably to the supply and use of energy. ply. Nearly 480 nuclear are operating or With a combination of industrialization, eco- being built in 32 countries. nomic development, and a projected doubling of Despite the record, there is no international the world's population in the 21st century, glob- consensus concerning nuclear's future role. The al will surely continue to policies of a few countries are absolutely increase. Growth will be driven principally by opposed to nuclear power. While some countries the demand in developing countries. They now are decidedly positive, the majority are passive at have 75% of the world's inhabitants but consume best. While nuclear power stagnates in Europe only 31% of all energy produced worldwide. and North America, it continues to expand in Conservation and improved efficiency in energy Asia. Countries in Eastern Europe and the for- use will restrain but not stop demand. The World mer , heavily dependent on nuclear Energy Council (WEC) projects growth in ener- power, are experiencing serious difficulties due gy demand of anywhere between 50% and 300% to a breakdown in the infrastructure necessary to over the next five decades, depending on envi- keep the nuclear power plants operational. ronmental and economic factors. The future will see a mix of energy sources. The makeup of this mix cannot be precisely defined — it will depend not only on environ- The global energy issue mental considerations, but also on technologi- cal, policy, and market factors. For many years, In view of projected energy demands, fossil fuels are expected to continue to play a today's global pattern of is not major role in energy production. With adequate sustainable. There is a solid international con- support the share of new sup- sensus that heavy dependence on fossil fuels — plies should increase. The WEC expects renew- which today account for almost 90% of the total ables to reach a global energy share of between energy supply — must be controlled. Their use 5% and 8% in the next 25 years. Hydroelectric's adversely affects the atmosphere through emis- share will likely remain around the current 6%. sions of greenhouse gases along with other nox- ious gases and toxic pollutants. Though it is not problem free, nuclear power The potential of nuclear power is recognized as having a clear advantage in The challenge for the nuclear community is Mr. Mourogov is the IAEA Deputy Director General head- to assure that nuclear power remains a viable ing the Department of Nuclear Energy. option in meeting the energy requirements of

IAEA BULLETIN, 39/2/1997 FEATURES the next century. It could be a major provider of electricity for baseload as well as for urban Global Energy Use transport in megacities. It can play a role in Gigatonne oil equivalent (Gtoe) non-electric applications in district heating, process industries, maritime transport, Gtoe , hydrogen production, and for 50 applications in remote areas. It can contribute substantially to the security of energy supply 40 and it has the potential to be an almost inex- high haustible long-term energy through 30 the use of breeder reactors. However, the current lack of public support 20 could unquestionably constrain the introduction low of new plants. It will be necessary to openly dis- 10 cuss the concerns that have limited nuclear power's acceptance. But discussions of health and environmental impacts along with severe 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 accidents and waste disposal must not be done in Year isolation as is too frequently the case. As no ener- gy source is risk free, comparative impacts of the various energy systems must be extensively reviewed. Studies of nuclear, fossil, and renew- able energy chains show that there are significant issues and impacts inherent in all options. World Nuclear Capacity Gigawatts-electric Authoritative comparative assessments illus- trate the potential of nuclear power to mitigate energy-related health and environmental dam- age — it can be shown to be one of the most D High Variant environmentally acceptable means of generating • Medium Variant electricity. If external factors, such as the soci- • Low Variant etal costs of climate change, environmental damage, and health effects were included in all analyses, a clear nuclear advantage would arise over fossil fuels — and the economic competi- tiveness of nuclear power in a radically chang- ing financial environment would escalate. This article highlights key factors that will lO O m O O in o in O determine today and tomorrow's optimal energy en g 8 o o g o CO 3 O) CNJ CM CM CM CNJ CM 20 3 CoM sCM CM sCM strategies. It addresses methods to utilize the high content of . use as fuel in nuclear reactors is discussed as is the future potential of a fuel cycle. Various century, a large amount of new generating strategies to increase the economic viability of capacity would be required, averaging as high as nuclear power are brought out. Technological 20 new units annually. There are a number of means to further minimize environmental impacts issues relevant to the fuel cycle and the type of and to enhance safety are covered as they are a reactor desired that must be dealt with now in major factor in public acceptance. Also covered order to provide the best conditions for an are advances anticipated by mid-century in increased nuclear role. and fuel cycle . The IAEA's recent Symposium on Cycle and Reactor Strategies: Adjusting to New Realities (held in Vienna, Austria, 2-6 June Fuel cycle and reactor strategies: 1997) addressed a broad range of topics. They A look at the key factors included those brought about by the slowdown in nuclear power growth and the large amounts If a significant contribution from nuclear of plutonium expected to be recovered from dis- power is to take place by the middle of the next mantled nuclear warheads. One Key Issue Paper

IAEA BULLETIN, 39/2/1997 FEATURES specifically focused on future fuel cycle and ational stage, higher fuel burn-up cycles will uti- reactor strategies. lize more of the uranium-235 contained in the In an increasingly competitive and interna- fuel elements — concurrently tional global energy market, a number of key reducing the amount of spent fuel relative to the factors will affect not only the energy choice, energy produced. but also the extent and manner in which differ- However, reprocessing of spent fuel instead ent energy sources are used. These include: of disposal would allow the recycling of gener- • optimal use of available ; ated plutonium through mixed oxide fuel in • reduction of overall costs; thermal reactors as well as in fast breeder reac- • minimizing environmental impacts; tors and also make available uranium with its • convincing demonstration of safety; and fissionable isotopes that are contained in spent • meeting national and global policy needs. fuel. Reprocessing would significantly increase For nuclear energy, these five factors will the energy potential of today's uranium determine the future fuel cycle and reactor resources — theoretically by a factor of around strategies. As the objective is to optimize these 70 — and also substantially reduce the quantity factors, they will be discussed sequentially under of troublesome long-lived radioactive elements corresponding headings; maximizing resource in the remaining waste. By far, recycling pro- utilization, maximizing economic benefits, max- vides the best use of available uranium imizing environmental benefits, maximizing resources. The current policy of interim spent reactor safety, and satisfying key policy needs. fuel storage before ultimate disposal preserves Although obtaining public acceptance has the potential for future reprocessing to extract not been included as a key factor, it is in reality fissionable material, particularly plutonium. a vital one for nuclear energy. It will be neces- Thorium fuel cycle. Although uranium is sary to communicate the real benefits of nuclear likely to remain the main for power to the public and policy makers in an nuclear power systems, in the longer term the open and credible manner. The growing public use of fertile thorium as a feed material is possi- reluctance, particularly in developed countries, ble. While uranium contains a fissionable iso- to accept new large industrial facilities impacts tope, thorium does not. It must be enriched with policies in the entire energy sector and affects either fissionable uranium-235 or plutonium to the implementation of all power projects. start the fuel cycle. The uranium-233 that is sub- Maximizing resource utilization. Known sequently generated in the reactor from thorium and likely resources of uranium should assure conversion is fissionable. The thorium fuel a sufficient nuclear fuel supply in the short cycle, with its lower operating fuel tempera- and medium term even with reactors operating tures, has advantages in the physical perfor- primarily on once-through cycles with dispos- mance of fuel elements and also with respect to al of spent fuel. However, as uranium demand the characteristics of the core physics. increases and reserves are decreased to meet The existence of indigenous thorium in a the requirements of increased nuclear capaci- number of countries that have limited uranium ty, there will be economic pressure for the deposits would make this an attractive option. optimal use of uranium in a manner that uti- Thorium-based fuel cycles have been devel- lizes its total potential energy content per unit oped in a number of countries. Among these are quantity of ore. A variety of means are avail- the United States, , India, the United able to accomplish this during the enrichment Kingdom, Japan, and Canada, with the first process and at the operational stage. Over the three having successfully demonstrated their longer term, recycling of generated fissionable use in power reactors. The thorium fuel cycle material in thermal reactors and introduction can be used in all types of current systems — of fast breeder reactors will be necessary. light and heavy water as well as high tempera- Thorium could also be a valuable energy ture gas and fast reactors — without requiring resource in the longer term. significant changes in the reactor design or Uranium fuel cycle. Isotopic separation safety concepts. enables lowering the uranium-235 However, present knowledge of the extent of content in the enrichment process waste tailings. thorium resources in the world is poor even This results in extraction of more of the original though extensive deposits with high grade ore 0.7% fraction of this fissionable isotope existing have been found. Extraction of thorium from in the ore that consists primari- ores is a somewhat difficult process, and its eco- ly of non-fissionable uranium-238. At the oper- nomics are not established. There are also diffi-

IAEA BULLETIN, 39/2/1997 FEATURES culties of separation of the produced uranium- of other industrial practices may lead to a more 233 from the spent fuel. But the remaining practical approach to radioactive material with- waste is significantly easier to deal with than the out compromising safety. waste from the current uranium-based fuel cycle Financing. Innovative and novel investment without reprocessing. strategies will be needed to meet evolving and Maximizing economic benefits. As fuel changing investment goals. The large initial costs are relatively low, reduction of overall capital investments required for nuclear power costs by decreasing development, siting, con- projects could be easier to raise in the frame- struction, operation, and initial financing of multinational funding arrangements. expenses is essential to the overall economic Build, operate and transfer arrangements may viability of nuclear energy. Removing the uncer- be used in developing countries that allow for tainties and variability in licensing require- adequate returns on non-domestic investments ments, particularly before commissioning, before shifting ownership. Incremental invest- would allow for more predictable investment ment strategies through modular energy systems and financial strategies. would also decrease initial financing needs. Development costs. The high costs associat- Maximizing environmental benefits. ed with new design development will likely Although nuclear energy has distinct advantages result in less expensive evolutionary improve- over today's fossil burning systems — in terms of ment of today's reactor systems rather than the fuel consumed, pollutants emitted and waste pro- more expensive introduction of revolutionary duced — further reducing environmental concerns new designs and technologies. Governmental can have a major influence on public attitudes. development funding has substantially As the overall health and environmental decreased over the years and as with all mature impact of the is small, atten- technologies, the source of funding will shift tion will be directed at improved techniques to entirely to the private sector. deal with . This would sup- Capital costs. The need to reduce high initial port global sustainable development goals and capital costs will encourage economies in siting at the same time increase competitiveness with and construction. It will lead to multi-unit sites other energy sources that will be required to at existing locations that will also maximize adequately deal with their waste. Reactor sys- infrastructure investments. There will be more tems and fuel cycles can be adjusted to mini- emphasis on plants with standardized systems mize waste production. Design requirements and components as successfully employed in to decrease waste quantities and volume France. Plant size and unit power levels will be reduction techniques such as ultra-compaction matched to regional needs and the choice of will be employed. suppliers will be based on long-term economics Advanced technologies to contain and immo- rather than on short-term advantages. bilize high-level waste are under development. Operations. In the operational area, reduc- But, of most significance, programmes are cur- tion in costs will require high availability and rently in place to demonstrate the adequacy of load factors brought about by high quality sys- deep underground disposal of high-level waste. tems, long core fuel cycle periods, short shut- The construction and operation of a geologic down times and the ability to rapidly return to repository in the next decade could allay public power. There will be a continued evolution of concerns over the safety as well as cost of dis- separate organizations providing various plant posal. If deemed necessary, the long-lived iso- and fuel cycle services, particularly on a topes () that are radioactive for many regional basis. thousands of years can be transmuted in Licensing. Some of the high capital costs of burning reactors. The necessary technology new facilities and extended construction periods exists for these reactors and their associated are related to the uncertainties and demands in chemical separation plants. As already noted, the licensing requirements. Uncertain waste man- thorium fuel cycle results in less long-lived iso- agement and decommissioning requirements topes and lower disposal requirements. and costs deter investments. These factors may Maximizing reactor safety. With more than lead to a rationalization of the licensing process 430 reactors operating for more than 20 years on leading to more certainty in regulation and a average, nuclear power generally has an excel- concurrent decrease in the time from site selec- lent safety record. But the Chernobyl accident in tion to operation. Waste and decommissioning 1986 demonstrated that a very severe nuclear requirements based on comparative assessments accident has a potential to cause national and

IAEA BULLETIN, 39/2/1997 FEATURES

tional collaborative efforts aimed at strengthen- Fuel and Waste Comparisons ing safety worldwide would contribute to pub- 1000-MWe electricity plant in tonnes/year lic awareness of the strong international com- mitment to assuring safety. A wide range of international agreements, non-binding safety standards and international review and advisory services already exists in what is now distinctly seen as an international nuclear safety regime. Highly visible components are the Convention on Nuclear Safety, which entered into force in October 1996, and whose Contracting Parties Nuclear * recently agreed on the review process for the Fue/;27t(160t Natural Fuel: 2.6 million t Convention's implementation; and the Joint uranium/year) (5 trains of 1400t/day) Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and the Safety of Radioactive Wastes: 351 (high level) Wastes: 6.5 million t CO2

31 Ot (intermediate) 900 t SO2 Waste Management, whose adoption is expect- 460t (low level) 4500 t NOX ed at a Diplomatic Conference this year. 320,000 t Ash (with 400t Unquestionably, the most convincing toxic heavy metals) demonstration of safety will be through the safe

'Equipped with latest pollution abatement technology. performance of existing plants and the avoid- ance of any major incident in the future. Satisfying key policy needs. Energy inde- regional radioactive contamination. Although pendence along with non-proliferation concerns safety and environmental impacts are becoming and excess military plutonium are high on the a key issue for all energy sources, many in the list of policy factors at the national and interna- general public perceive nuclear power as partic- tional level that strongly influence the nuclear ularly and intrinsically unsafe. The safety con- option. cerns coupled with the associated regulatory In a political world, requirements will, in the near term, continue to through security of energy supply and a balanced exert a strong influence on nuclear power devel- mix of energy sources are paramount national opment. In order to reduce the magnitude of real interests. With nuclear power, security of supply and perceived accidents, a number of approach- concerns are lessened as adequate strategic es will be used in new facilities. inventories can be relatively easily established Extraordinarily effective barriers (such as with low financial costs. Today's global energy double containments) will reduce the likelihood mix has an almost 90% fossil component. of significant off-site radiological accident con- Clearly, where indigenous resources sequences to an extremely low level to eliminate are lacking, nuclear energy can contribute sub- the need for emergency action plans. Enhancing stantially to the energy mix as it does in France, the integrity of the reactor vessel and reactor the Republic of Korea, and Japan. systems will also decrease the likelihood of on- The potential for nuclear materials and tech- site consequences. nologies to be diverted to nuclear weapons pro- International collaboration will provide reactor duction is a valid concern. The international com- and system designs that incorporate globally munity has recognized the proliferation risks and accepted safety and engineering standards. It will measures exist to prevent diversion of fissile contribute to assuring safety worldwide and materials. These include the Treaty on the Non- encourage country-of-origin licensing as an Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and associated acceptable basis for national licensing of imported safeguards agreements with the IAEA, as well as reactors. Plant designs and processes are more a number of other multilateral agreements. To intrinsically safe by incorporating passive safety further reduce the risks of proliferation, design features rather than active protection systems. efforts are under way for diversion resistant reac- High temperature gas-cooled reactors that employ tors and fuel cycles that generate ceramic graphite fuel can limit the potential for the unsuitable for weapons use. release of radioactive material and may emerge as To deal with present stockpiles of military a viable option. plutonium, proposals exist for their use in mixed Continued development of a strong global oxide fuels in the current generation of water nuclear safety culture brought about by interna- reactors. Employment of a fast

IAEA BULLETIN, 39/2/1997 FEATURES strategy would reduce the plutonium stockpile that now exists in spent fuel and over the long Global Framework of Nuclear Safety term could eventually eliminate its accumulation. Legally binding international agreements and conventions have been adopted and cover a range of subjects. The subjects include: • Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Direction of IAEA programmes related • Physical Protection of to nuclear power development • Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident • Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear Accident or Taking into account the current situation of Radiological Emergency nuclear energy in the world, a stronger initiative • Nuclear Safety on an international level is required to realize • Safety of Spent Fuel Management and the technology's potential benefits. The Agency Safety of Radioactive Waste Management continues to play a catalytic role in co-ordinat- ing actions, covering the whole range of energy Non-binding common nuclear and safety standards include: issues, undertaken by Member States and differ- • Basic Safety Standards for ent international or specialized organizations. • Safety Fundamentals The IAEA's programmes and activities will be • Nuclear Safety Standards Programme described under the following headings: nuclear • Regulations for the Safe Transport of Radioactive Materials power, nuclear fuel cycle, waste management • Radioactive Waste Safety Standards technology and comparative assessment of ener- • Safety Guides and Practices gy sources. Underlining the work ahead is a reinforced global commitment to safe nuclear operations through legal agreements, safety standards, and International Working Groups in Areas of Nuclear Power associated expert services. (See box.) The dec- laration of the April 1996 Moscow Summit reit- • Advanced Technologies for Light-Water Cooler Reactors erated that safety is the first priority in nuclear • Advanced Technologies for Heavy-Water Cooled Reactor activities. Furthermore, it is to be expected that • Fast Reactors safety targets will continue to rise and this will • High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors require continuous effort and vigilance by the • Management of Nuclear Power Plants IAEA and its Member States to ensure that ade- • Nuclear Power Plant Control and Instrumentation quate levels are maintained. • Nuclear Power Plant Personnel Training and Qualification Nuclear power. The IAEA's efforts in • Water Reactor Fuel Performance and Technology nuclear power will focus on the contribution of nuclear energy to sustainable development, with emphasis on: .-;; , Agency on the programme of activities neces- • promoting design and operation measures sary to meet the needs of Member States. necessary to achieve safe development of Through the IWGs on advanced reactor tech- nuclear power; nologies, the Agency will encourage an interna- • assisting developing Member States in plan- tional exchange of information on non-commer- ning and implementing nuclear power pro- cial technology and co-operative research. grammes and in improving the management of Another important function will be to assist nuclear power projects and operating plants; countries in the preservation of key technologi- • improving operating performance and relia- cal data on advanced nuclear power systems. bility of nuclear power plants through sharing of The Agency will also continue to provide a operating experience and information world- forum for the review of information on the wide in all areas, including training and qualifi- development of innovative nuclear energy sys- cation of personnel. tems such as: One mechanism used by the IAEA to keep • advanced nuclear reactors with passive safety abreast of the technological developments in a features; given area is the constitution of an international • thorium fueled reactors; working group (IWG) for that area. (See box.) It • fast reactors cooled by lead or lead/bismuth; consists of top experts from different Member • accelerator driven and hybrid fusion/fission States. The IWG meets periodically to review concepts. the current status and future directions of activ- A new area of activities relates to the current ities in the area concerned and advises the need to examine the possibility of civilian use of

IAEA BULLETIN, 39/2/1997 FEATURES military nuclear technologies developed for naval • provision of a basis to define optimal and space applications. Another concerns desali- strategies for the development of the energy nation. An important event was the May 1997 sector, consistent with the aims of sustainable International Symposium on Desalination of development. Seawater with Nuclear Energy in the Republic of A key element is the development and dis- Korea which reviewed experience. Results of this semination of databases and methodologies for symposium will be utilized to define more pre- comparative assessment of energy sources in cisely the IAEA's work in this area. terms of their economic, health and environ- Nuclear fuel cycle. Among key topics mental impacts. Consideration will also be addressed in the recent IAEA nuclear fuel cycle given to dealing with energy demand and supply symposium were the comparative assessment of issues outside the electricity sector. different options for development of the fuel cycle, management of spent fuel and plutonium, and disposal of radioactive waste. The volume of Attaining environmental goals spent fuel in interim storage at both power and research reactors is growing and the long-term The world's record of energy use shows that storage of spent fuel in ageing facilities will continuing the current dependence on fossil become an increasingly crucial issue regardless fuels is not sustainable. Nuclear power can play of the management option chosen. Identification a role in mitigating the detrimental environmen- and mitigation of environmental, health and tal impacts of energy use. With an increased safety vulnerabilities of ageing spent fuel will be nuclear role, the dominant reactor types to mid- emphasized and activities relating to exchange century will be the light- and heavy-water reac- of information, experience and advice on techni- tors with improved economics and safety sys- cal solutions in this area will be expanded. tems. High temperature gas-cooled reactors may With regard to management of plutonium gain a role particularly for specialized applica- from spent fuel and dismantled warheads, there tions. Thorium-fueled reactors would have a is an increasing interest in additional interna- marginal role as it is unlikely that the supporting tional measures to address issues related to its infrastructure for its use will be developed. production, transport, storage, and disposal. Efforts will continue to preserve the potential of Waste management technology. The focus fast-breeder reactors and they could be intro- of activities relating to radioactive waste man- duced gradually by mid-century. agement will be on the following: To make nuclear energy more economically • collection, assessment and exchange of competitive, novel financing methods will have information on waste management strategies to be developed. Moreover, measures to gain and technologies; public acceptance will be necessary. The ade- • provision of general technical guidance, quacy of waste management policies and the assistance in technology transfer, and promotion disposal of high-level waste will be demonstrat- of international collaboration; ed through selection and use of geologically • examination of the long-term prospects of acceptable depositories. To maintain and regional waste management facilities to provide enhance nuclear power's safety and perfor- new opportunities to developing countries in mance record, there will need to be continued resolving their waste management problems in a vigilance to improve safety through design, and cost-effective manner. to implement an effective operational safety cul- Comparative assessment of different ture and international safety agreements. energy sources. The IAEA programme on com- The IAEA will have to play an increasingly parative assessment of sources of energy will important role in co-ordinating the efforts of focus on: Member States and other international organi- • comparative assessment of economic, health, zations in order to realize the potential benefits and environmental aspects of energy systems of nuclear energy for the world's sustainable and introduction of the results into the process development. An important element of pro- of formulation and electricity sys- grammes will be improving regional and inter- tem expansion planning; national co-operation and sharing of infrastruc- • enhancement of the capability of Member ture facilities, developmental costs, and opera- States to incorporate health and environmental tional experience to sustain the development of considerations in the decision making process in in a safe, reliable, and eco- the energy sector; nomic manner. G

IAEA BULLETIN, 39/2/1997