THE NEED FOR NUCLEAR POWER VIEWPOINT ON THE WORLD’S CHALLENGING ENERGY FUTURE BY RICHARD RHODES AND DENIS BELLER he world needs more energy. Energy multiplies Thuman labor, increasing productivity. It builds and lights schools, purifies water, powers farm machinery, drives sewing machines and robot assemblers, stores and moves information. World population is steadily increasing, having passed six billion in 1999. Yet one-third of that number — two billion people — lack access to electricity. Development depends on energy, and the 43 alternative to development is suffering: poverty, disease, and death. Such conditions create instability and the potential for widespread violence. National security therefore requires developed nations to help increase energy production in their more populous developing counterparts. For the sake of safety as well as security, that increased energy supply should come from diverse sources. “At a global level,” the British Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering with vigorous conservation, to support consumption at a estimate in a 1999 report on world energy production mere one-third of today’s US nuclear energy and climate would have to triple by 2050 per capita rate. The change, “we can expect our consumption of energy at least Mr. Rhodes is the author of The Making of the Atomic Bomb, Dark Sun, to double in the next 50 years and other books. Mr. Beller is a nuclear engineer and Technical Staff and to grow by a factor of up Member at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA. This article is to five in the next 100 years as based on the authors’ essay in Foreign Affairs, Vol 70, No. 1 (January- the world population increases February 2000) and is published here with permission of the New York and as people seek to improve Times Syndicate. their standards of living.” Even Photo: Maintaining electric power lines in Indonesia. (Credit:UNDP) IAEA BULLETIN, 42/2/2000 International Energy Agency plants, increasing capacity by secure than the fuels they have (IEA) of the Organization for more than 100%. With 433 begun to replace, and their Economic Cooperation and operating reactors worldwide, ascendance should be Development (OECD) nuclear power is meeting the endorsed. projects 65% growth in world annual electrical needs of more Even environmentalists energy demand by 2020, two- than a billion people. should welcome the transition thirds of that coming from In America and around the and reconsider their developing countries. globe, nuclear safety and infatuation with renewable “Given the levels of efficiency have improved energy sources. consumption likely in the significantly since 1990. In future,” the Royal Society and 1998, and again in 1999, unit CARBON-BASED Royal Academy caution, “it capacity factor (the fraction of ENERGY will be an immense challenge a power plant’s capacity that it Among sources of electric- to meet the global demand for actually generates) for power generation, coal is the energy without unsustainable operating reactors reached worst environmental offender. long-term damage to the record levels. The average US (Petroleum, today’s dominant environment.” That damage capacity factor in 1999 was source of energy, sustains includes surface and air 85% for about 100 reactors, transportation, putting it in a pollution and global warming. compared to 58% in 1980 and separate category.) Recent 66% in 1990. Despite a studies by the Harvard School A CLEAN BREAK TO reduction in the number of of Public Health indicate that THE FUTURE power plants, the US nuclear pollutants from coal-burning Most of the world’s energy industry generated 9% more cause about 15,000 premature today comes from petroleum nuclear electricity in 1999 than deaths annually in the United (39%), coal (24%), natural gas in 1998. Average production States alone. Used to generate (22%), hydroelectric power costs for nuclear energy are about a quarter of the world’s 44 (6.9%), and nuclear power now just 1.9 cents per primary energy, coal-burning (6.3%). Although oil and coal kilowatt-hour (kWh), while releases amounts of toxic waste still dominate, their market electricity produced from gas too immense to contain safely. fraction began declining costs 3.4 cents per kWh. Such waste is either dispersed decades ago. Meanwhile, By improving capacity and directly into the air or is natural gas and nuclear power performance alone, nuclear solidified and dumped. Some have steadily increased their power already has made the is even mixed into construction shares and should continue to largest contribution of any materials. do so. American industry to meeting Besides emitting noxious Contrary to the assertions of the US Kyoto commitment to chemicals in the form of gases anti-nuclear organizations, limiting carbon dioxide releases or toxic particles — sulfur and nuclear power is neither dead into the atmosphere. nitrogen oxides (components of nor dying. France generates Meanwhile, radiation exposure acid rain and smog), arsenic, about 75% of its electricity to workers and waste produced mercury, cadmium, selenium, with nuclear power; Belgium, per unit of energy have hit new lead, boron, chromium, copper, 58%; Sweden, 47%; lows. fluorine, molybdenum, nickel, Switzerland, 36%; Japan, Because major, complex vanadium, zinc, carbon 36%; Spain, 31%; the United technologies take more than monoxide and dioxide, and Kingdom, 29%; and the half a century to spread around other greenhouse gases — coal- United States (the largest the world, natural gas will fired power plants are also the producer of nuclear energy in share the lead in power world’s major source of the world), 20%. The Republic generation with nuclear power radioactive releases into the of Korea and China have over the next hundred years. environment. Uranium and announced ambitious plans to Which of the two will thorium, mildly radioactive expand their nuclear-power command the greater share elements ubiquitous in the capabilities — in the case of remains to be determined. But earth’s crust, are both released IAEA BULLETIN, 42/2/2000 Korea, by building 16 new both are cleaner and more when coal is burned. Radioactive radon gas, Hydropower is not even a true and greenhouse gas. A global produced when uranium in the renewable, since dams solar-energy system without earth’s crust decays and eventually silt in. Most fossil or nuclear backup would normally confined renewables collect extremely also be dangerously vulnerable underground, is released when diluted energy, requiring large to drops in solar radiation coal is mined. A 1000- areas of land and masses of from volcanic events such as megawatt-electric (MWe) coal- collectors to concentrate. the 1815 eruption of fired power plant releases about Manufacturing solar Tambura, which released 40 100 times as much radioactivity collectors, pouring concrete cubic kilometers of ash into into the environment as a for fields of windmills, and the atmosphere. This ash comparable nuclear plant. drowning many square miles significantly reduced solar Worldwide releases of uranium of land behind dams cause radiation for several years and thorium from coal-burning damage and pollution. afterward, which resulted in total about 37,300 tonnes Photovoltaic cells used for widespread crop failure during (metric tons) annually, with solar collection are large the “year without a summer” about 7300 tonnes coming semiconductors; their that followed. from the United States. Since manufacture produces highly Wind farms, besides uranium and thorium are toxic waste metals and requiring millions of pounds potent nuclear fuels, burning solvents that require special of concrete and steel to build coal also wastes more potential technology for disposal. A (and thus creating huge energy than it produces. 1000-MWe solar electric plant amounts of waste materials), The overlooked radioactive would generate 6850 tonnes are inefficient, with low waste that is generated while of hazardous waste from (because intermittent) burning coal emphasizes the metals-processing alone over a capacity. They also cause political disadvantages under 30-year lifetime. A visual and noise pollution and which nuclear power labors. comparable solar thermal are mighty slayers of birds. Current laws force nuclear plant (using mirrors focused Several hundred birds of prey, 45 utilities, unlike coal plants, to on a central tower) would including dozens of golden invest in expensive systems that require metals for eagles, are killed every year by limit the release of construction that would a single California wind farm; radioactivity. Nuclear fuel is generate 435,000 tonnes of more eagles have been killed not efficiently recycled in the manufacturing waste, of by wind turbines than were United States because of which 16,300 tonnes would lost in the disastrous Exxon proliferation fears. These be contaminated with lead Valdez oil spill. The National factors have warped the and chromium and be Audubon Society has economics of nuclear power considered hazardous. launched a campaign to save development and created a A global solar-energy system the California condor from a politically difficult waste- would consume at least 20% proposed wind farm to be disposal problem. If coal of the world’s known iron built north of Los Angeles. A utilities were forced to assume resources. It would require a wind farm equivalent in similar costs, coal electricity century to build and a output and capacity to a would no longer be cheaper substantial fraction of annual 1000-MWe fossil-fuel or than