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Nuclear & the environmental debate: The context of choices

Through international bodies on change, the roles of nuclear and other energy options are being assessed

by Evelyne ^Environmental issues are high on international mental Panel on (IPCC), which Bertel and Joop agendas. Governments, interest groups, and citi- has been active since 1988. Since the energy Van de Vate zens are increasingly aware of the need to limit sector is responsible for the major share of an- environmental impacts from human activities. In thropogenic emissions, interna- the energy sector, one focus has been on green- tional organisations having expertise and man- house gas emissions which could to global date in the field of energy, such as the IAEA, are climate change. The issue is likely to be a driving actively involved in the activities of these bodies. factor in choices about energy options for elec- In this connection, the IAEA participated in the tricity generation during the coming decades. preparation of the second Scientific Assessment 's future will undoubtedly be in- Report (SAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on fluenced by this debate, and its potential role in Climate Change (IPCC). reducing environmental impacts from the elec- The IAEA has provided the IPCC with docu- tricity sector will be of central importance. mented information and results from its ongoing Scientifically there is little doubt that increas- programmes on the potential role of nuclear ing atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, such power in alleviating the risk of global climate as dioxide (CO2) and methane, will cause change. In particular, the IAEA prepared, jointly climate change on a global scale. However, the with the of the Organi- natural climate variability is still larger than the zation for Economic Co-operation and Develop- estimated anthropogenic contributions to climate ment (OECD/NEA), sections on nuclear power change. of the SAR chapter dealing with Despite uncertainties, the threat of climate mitigation options. This chapter includes a de- change remains a serious long-term global scription of different options to reduce green- risk. Scenarios with time horizons of 2100 and house gas emissions; a presentation of illustra- beyond have to be developed, requiring insight tive low CO2 emission energy supply scenarios; into long-term development of -styles, so- and a discussion on measures for implementing cio-economics, and . Such scenar- low carbon emitting and strategies. ios are of a normative character and therefore The IAEA and OECD/NEA also prepared a sup- are inherently subjective. What is known is porting document to the SAR, Nuclear Power in that is one of the major the Context of Alleviating Greenhouse Gas sources of greenhouse gases, and nuclear Emissions, which was published in the IAEA power nowadays avoids more than 8% of the TECDOC series in April 1995. worldwide CO2 emissions. This article describes the main functions of Two major international bodies are involved these two international bodies and reports on the in climate change matters: the Conference of IAEA's contribution to the IPCC's second Sci- Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate entific Assessment Report, which is being sub- Change (CoP/FCCC), which had its First Ses- mitted in early 1996 to the CoP/FCCC . sion in March/April 1995, and the Intergovern-

Global bodies related to climate change Mr. Van de Vate is a staff member of the IAEA Planning and Economics Studies Section in the IAEA Division of Nuclear In 1992, the UN Conference on Environment Power. Ms. Bertel, a former staff member of the Section, is now on the staff of the Nuclear Energy Agency, Organization for and Development (Earth Summit) in Rio dealt Economic Co-operation and Development in . with the of the Earth in terms of

IAEA BULLETIN, 4/1995 FEATURES avoiding climate change, environmental pollu- sidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) and the tion, and depletion. In Rio, the Frame- Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) Advice (SBSTA). In , the CoP/FCCC set up was signed. It entered into force in 1994 after the Ad hoc on the Berlin Mandate (AG/BM) being ratified by more than 50 countries. The to draft a protocol for the beyond 2000. SBI FCCC's objective is to lower the atmospheric will develop recommendations to assist the CoP in greenhouse gas concentration to non-hazardous its review and assessment of the Convention's im- levels. This will require draconian measures, es- plementation. SBSTA will be the link between the pecially by the industrialized countries where scientific and technological assessments and the per capita CO2 emissions are more than ten information provided by international bodies on the times those of developing countries. Industrial- one hand, and the policy-oriented needs of the CoP ized countries will have to compensate for the on the other hand. The IAEA will be involved in increased CO2 emissions that are inherent to the activities carried out by these FCCC-related bodies. socio-economic development and rising popula- The IPCC is an independent, scientific, and tions of the developing countries. This equity technical body with a mission to help policy- consideration, laid down in the FCCC, is a fre- makers mitigate global climate change. As part quent political discussion point in inter-govern- of its work, the IPCC produces Scientific Assess- mental meetings related to climate change. ment Reports on climate change. Its first report The CoP/FCCC, the supreme body of the was published in 1990 and updated in a supple- Convention, was established by the Earth Sum- ment in 1992. The second report was endorsed in mit in 1992 and had its first session in Berlin, in late 1995 at the IPCC meeting in Madrid, and is March and April 1995. It reviews the implemen- expected to be published in early 1996. A third tation of the FCCC and makes decisions neces- assessment report is scheduled for 1998. sary to promote the Convention's implementa- In a co-operative project with the OECD, the tion. Several subsidiary bodies also have been IPCC has also produced Guidelines for National established: the Convention established the Sub- Greenhouse Gas Inventories. They will assist gov-

Organizations related to the Framework Convention on Climate Change

Conference of the Parties I [United Nations Environment] World Meteorological (CoP/FCCC) I [ Programme (UNEP) I Organization

Climate Change Secretariat I Intergovernmental Panel on Subsidiary bodies (UNFCCC) I Climate Change (IPCC)

Subsidiary Body on Working Group I Implementation (SBI) Scientific Assessment

Working Group II Ad hoc Group on the - Impacts, Adaptation ' Berlin Mandate (AG/BM) and Mitigation

Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Working Group III " Technological Advice • Socio-economic and (SBSTA) Cross-cutting Issues

IAEA BULLETIN, 4/1995 FEATURES

ernments in reporting regularly to the reducing or other CoP/FCCC about the implementation of the na- health and environmental burdens in the short tional measures to lower their emissions of green- and medium terms. For example, house gases. capture and disposal in deep , or energy The Scientific Assessment Reports are drafted systems based upon as a carrier, might by experts from a broad spectrum of scientific contribute substantially to greenhouse gas reduc- disciplines. They are subject to review by national tion in the long term. But they will by no means and international experts before being submitted be industrially mature and economically com- for approval by plenary meetings of IPCC and its petitive within the coming decades. Renewable three Working Groups. Working Group I, on Sci- sources, with the notable exceptions of entific Assessment, deals with climatology. Work- and , do not offer realistic prospects for ing Group II, on Impacts, Adaptation and Mitiga- large-scale baseload generation. tion, covers topics such as the rise of levels, energy, and desertification. Working Group III, on Socio-economic and Cross-cutting Issues, assesses Nuclear power and electricity options socio-economic literature related to climate change. Working Groups I and II have evaluated Nuclear power is a proven technology available CO2 emission scenarios with time horizons up to today that can contribute significantly to reducing 2100. greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental In contributing to these evaluations, the burdens from the energy sector and to meeting IAEA has emphasized the potential role of nu- environmental protection objectives. In the long clear energy in the context of comprehensive term — as the executive summary of the SAR comparative assessments. chapter on energy supply mitigation options states — "nuclear energy could replace baseload fossil in most parts of the The context of choices world, if generally acceptable responses can be found to concerns about reactor safety, radioactive All electricity generation options involve disposal, and proliferation". some environmental impacts. However, when The use of nuclear energy for electricity gen- they are fitted to state-of-the-art technologies, eration dates back to the late 1950s and it has the options are able to deliver electricity at rela- reached a stage of industrial maturity. At the end tively low risks to the environment. In particular, of 1994, there were 432 nuclear units connected a number of technical options exist for alleviat- to the grid with a total installed capacity of some ing or mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from 340 gigawatts-electric (GWe). In 1994, the nu- the power sector. Policy measures such as taxes, clear electricity generated worldwide exceeded subsidies, and emission permits can also be used 2300 terawatt-hours (TWh), supplying 17% of as a means to reflect the estimated full cost to the total electricity consumption. The accumu- society of alternative options. The challenge for lated operating experience of nuclear power decision-makers in the power sector is to design is now over 7200 reactor- and the and implement timely strategies based upon en- average operating performance is improving ergy mixes that aim towards minimizing adverse continuously with an energy environmental, health, and social impacts at the above 70% since the mid-1980s. This experience lowest total cost for society. places nuclear power among the technologies The technical options that can be considered that decision-makers can consider for sustain- in the power sector range from efficiency im- able electricity system expansion in the coming provement to CO2 sequestration through shifting years and decades. to with low or no carbon content. However, While environmental concerns are likely to at the decision-making level, technico-economic be major driving forces in choices about electric- factors and barriers to implementation have to be ity generation, the economic competitiveness of recognized and taken into account. Energy effi- options will remain a cornerstone in assessing ciency improvements are not infinite and have a and choosing alternative sources. Although there cost which tends to increase very rapidly once are indications that technical breakthroughs the straightforward savings have been achieved. could reduce significantly the costs of electricity Some technological options — which might generated by some sources seem extremely attractive on scientific grounds other than hydropower, such as solar photovol- — are far from having reached the stage of indus- taic and , these options are unlikely trial development or even technical feasibility to be competitive with fossil fuels or nuclear demonstration. Therefore, these options are not power for baseload generation before the second likely to make any significant contribution to or third decade of the next century. In most

IAEA BULLETIN, 4/1995 FEATURES

C02 Equivalent Emission Factors of Different Energy Sources (full energy chain; maximum and minimum values)

CO2 equivalents per kWh electric 1400 1290 1234 1200

1000 890 860 800 686 600 11 460 410 400 Iliili 279 200 116 iilii 9 7 11 3o0n / | 5 —|/ 30 i i 4 I 37 0 •ill Oil Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar PV Biomass

Avoidance of Global CO., by Nuclear and Hydropower Trends in CO2 Emission Rates 1965-93 % of global CO, avoided 20 Emission Annual Percentage rate in increase increase 1993 (Pg/y per (%) 15 (Pg/y) )

European 3.5 0.025 0.8 Union

OECD 12.1 0.15 1.4 countries

Hydropower Non-OECD 5.5 0.11 2.6 (1988) (1965-88) (1965-e

i . , , , I . , , , I . . , , 1 , , , , Less de- 7.7 0.21 4.4 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 veloped countries

Giga of CO avoided per year World 24.0 0.39 2.1 2000

Trends in CO2 emission rates vary regionally, reflecting differences in development of nuclear 1500 power programmes since the mid-1960s. Overall, nuclear power production has increased much faster than hydropower, and their present contributions to avoidance of CO are nearly equal. Comparing the 1000 emission of all greenhouse gases from all energy sources reveals low emission factors for nuclear, hydro, and wind power. The top bar graph shows maximum and minimum values as compiled from 500 studies conducted by the IAEA and other organizations. The low CO2- equivalent emission factor for nuclear power is an international consensus value. Source: British Statistical Review of World 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Energy, 1995.

IAEA BULLETIN. 4/1995 FEATURES countries, oil is not considered for baseload elec- health and are more than adequate to protect the tricity generation owing to the volatility of mar- environment. The other emissions, residuals, and ket and concerns on security of supply. burdens from nuclear power plants and fuel cycle Therefore, in most countries the choices for facilities are lower than those arising from fossil- baseload electricity generation plants to be com- fuel electricity generation chains and compara- missioned within one or two decades will essen- ble or lower than those from renewable energy tially be limited to fossil fuels, mainly coal and systems. Taking into account the entire up- gas, nuclear power, and, where favourable sites stream and down-stream energy chains for elec- exist, hydropower. tricity generation, nuclear power emits 40 to 100 The relative costs of electricity generation by times less carbon dioxide than currently used coal, gas, nuclear, and hydro power plants vary fossil-fuel chains. Greenhouse gas emissions from country to country and are highly depend- from the nuclear chain are due mainly to the use ent on local conditions, discount rates, and ex- of fossil fuels in the extraction, processing, and pectations regarding the future coal and gas enrichment of and to fuels used in the trends. Coal is and will remain an economically production of and cement for the construc- attractive option in a number of countries having tion of reactors and fuel cycle facilities. These access to cheap domestic . As a result emissions, which are negligible relative to those of the development of highly efficient combined from the direct use of fossil fuels for electricity cycle technologies, gas has become competitive generation, can be reduced even further by en- for baseload electricity generation in a number of ergy efficiency improvements. Such improve- countries. However, gas-generated electricity ments at the enrichment step include, for exam- costs are very sensitive to gas prices that might ple, replacing the gaseous process by increase significantly if market demand grows less energy-intensive processes such as centrifu- rapidly. Where favourable sites exist, hydro- gation or separation. power projects offer opportunities for low-cost The role that nuclear electricity already plays in electricity generation. However, the number of alleviating the risk of global climate change is nota- these sites is limited and, in many countries, ble. It is illustrated by the fact that if the nuclear social and environmental impacts of large dams power plants in operation worldwide would be sub- are preventing the implementation of hydro- stituted by fossil-fuelled power plants, the CO2 emis- power plants. Moreover, recent publications in- sions from the energy sector would increase by more dicate that hydropower generation could be un- than 8%. This level — which almost equals the friendly to the climate because of emissions of avoidance of emissions by hydropower — has been greenhouse gases from the reservoirs. achieved in a number of countries in about two In spite of their high investment costs, nu- decades of nuclear power development. clear power plants compete favourably with fos- The analysis of statistical data in different sil-fuelled units in most countries. This is espe- countries over the last 20 years shows that coun- cially the case where nuclear programmes have tries which implemented large nuclear pro- been soundly implemented and managed and grammes, such as Belgium, , and , where fossil fuels are not accessible at low achieved simultaneously significant reductions prices. Ongoing research and development is ex- of their CO2 emissions. In France, for example, pected to bring further enhancement of the per- both CO2 and sulphur dioxide emissions were formance of nuclear power plants that will lead reduced by more than three between 1982 and to lower costs of nuclear electricity generation. 1992, although electricity production nearly Moreover, owing to the comprehensive ap- doubled, owing to the share of nuclear power in proach adopted for calculating nuclear electricity electricity supply. In the , if nuclear generation costs, the non-internalized social, energy would not have been used between 1973 health, and environmental costs are very small and 1994, some additional 1750 million metric relative to the direct estimated costs, and they are of CO2 would have been released in the much smaller than in the case of fossil-fuelled atmosphere. Countries and regions which do not systems. Factoring in these costs should rein- deploy nuclear power on a large scale — for force nuclear power's competitive margin. example, developing countries — had a rela- Environmental Impacts. With regard to en- tively high increase rate of CO2 emissions. vironmental impacts, nuclear power offers spe- cific benefits. In routine operation, nuclear power plants and the fuel cycle facilities do re- A long-term perspective lease small quantities of radioactive materials. However, the rules developed and implemented Over the long term, resources several decades ago for limiting radioactive and existing industrial infrastructures can sup- emissions satisfy criteria for protecting human port a broad deployment of nuclear power pro-

IAEA BULLETIN, 4/1995 FEATURES grammes in many countries. If the barriers to the by 2025 in order to support nuclear electricity implementation of nuclear power were allevi- generation over the period up to 2100 with the ated, nuclear electricity generation could grow presently known uranium resources. However, steadily from now on and throughout the next within that time frame, additional uranium re- century. The long-term nuclear scenario devel- sources would likely become available whenever oped by the IAEA in co-operation with the necessary. Moreover, other types of nuclear OECD/NEA for the IPCC illustrates this point. power plants, such as fuelled reactors, This scenario was set up in the context of the hybrid systems, and even fusion reactors, might global energy and electricity demand projections be developed and commercially deployed. outlined in IPCC's SAR chapter on energy sup- The implementation of this nuclear scenario ply mitigation options. It assumes that nuclear would allow reductions in carbon dioxide emissions power would be deployed widely for alleviating worldwide by a factor of three as compared to the the risk of global climate change and would present level. A similar reduction would be feasible penetrate the market on grounds of its economic without nuclear power only if renewable energy competitiveness. It implies that the present pol- sources, which have not yet reached the level of icy barriers to nuclear power deployment — such commercial development, would enter into the mar- as moratoria on construction of new nuclear ket early in the next century and would be deployed power plants and political decisions to ignore the at very high rates throughout the next century. nuclear option — will be progressively removed, and that nuclear projects in developing countries will be facilitated by enhanced technology adap- development tation and transfer, and financial support from development banks. The years ahead will see increasing demand for The assumptions adopted for estimating the energy, and in particular the need for additional penetration rates of nuclear power in different electricity generation capacity. These challenges will regions reflect the need for diversity of supply be combined with the necessity to reduce the health and the availability and competitiveness of alter- and environmental burdens induced by the burning native options. The options include oil and gas in of fossil fuels. Taken together, they call for the devel- the Middle East and, in the long term, biomass opment of all available energy sources and techno- and other renewable sources. Potential uses of logical options that can meet environmental protec- nuclear power for and tion and economic efficiency goals in the short, have not been taken into account because of the medium, and long term. uncertainties regarding the competitiveness of Nuclear power is one option for reducing emis- nuclear power for such applications. sions and residuals from electricity generation and By 2100 in this scenario, the share of nuclear for mitigating health and environmental impacts power in total electricity generation would range from the energy sector. In order to make a signifi- from less than 20% in , and New cant contribution in the implementation of sustain- Zealand, and the Middle East to 75% in Western able electricity supply strategies worldwide, nu- Europe. The total installed nuclear capacity would clear power should reinforce its competitiveness grow from the present 340 GWe to some 3300 GWe versus fossil-fuel based systems and, in the long in 2100 and nuclear power would provide 46% of the term, versus renewable sources. The barriers to worldwide electricity consumption, as compared to nuclear power deployment should be alleviated by 17% today. continuing demonstration that reactors and fuel The technical constraints taken into account in cycle facilities can be operated in a reliable and safe estimating potential nuclear capacity growth rates manner and that technical solutions already exist- include construction lead times and industrial capa- ing for final disposal of all radioactive can bilities for building nuclear power plants and fuel be implemented wherever needed. cycle facilities. The availability of sites for nuclear Continuing progress is being achieved in terms installations, including reposito- of technical performance, safety, and competitive- ries, was also considered by region, taking into ness of nuclear power plants. These advances account seismicity, cooling water requirements and should enhance the viability of the nuclear op- the need to build nuclear facilities in areas with tion in an increasing number of countries. The relatively low population . The availability continuation or renaissance of nuclear power of natural resources for nuclear fuel would not programmes in all countries where it is a viable place any major constraint on the development of option — based upon the assessment of its eco- nuclear power, taking into account known uranium nomic and environmental benefits as compared and thorium resources and expected technological to alternative energy sources — would contrib- progress in utilization. This scenario ute significantly to enhancing the sustainabil- would require the deployment of breeder reactors ity of energy supply systems. O

IAEA BULLETIN, 4/1995