FEATURES Nuclear energy & the environmental debate: The context of choices Through international bodies on climate change, the roles of nuclear power and other energy options are being assessed by Evelyne ^Environmental issues are high on international mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which Bertel and Joop agendas. Governments, interest groups, and citi- has been active since 1988. Since the energy Van de Vate zens are increasingly aware of the need to limit sector is responsible for the major share of an- environmental impacts from human activities. In thropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, interna- the energy sector, one focus has been on green- tional organisations having expertise and man- house gas emissions which could lead to global date in the field of energy, such as the IAEA, are climate change. The issue is likely to be a driving actively involved in the activities of these bodies. factor in choices about energy options for elec- In this connection, the IAEA participated in the tricity generation during the coming decades. preparation of the second Scientific Assessment Nuclear power's future will undoubtedly be in- Report (SAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on fluenced by this debate, and its potential role in Climate Change (IPCC). reducing environmental impacts from the elec- The IAEA has provided the IPCC with docu- tricity sector will be of central importance. mented information and results from its ongoing Scientifically there is little doubt that increas- programmes on the potential role of nuclear ing atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, such power in alleviating the risk of global climate as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane, will cause change. In particular, the IAEA prepared, jointly climate change on a global scale. However, the with the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organi- natural climate variability is still larger than the zation for Economic Co-operation and Develop- estimated anthropogenic contributions to climate ment (OECD/NEA), sections on nuclear power change. of the SAR chapter dealing with energy supply Despite uncertainties, the threat of climate mitigation options. This chapter includes a de- change remains a serious long-term global scription of different options to reduce green- risk. Scenarios with time horizons of 2100 and house gas emissions; a presentation of illustra- beyond have to be developed, requiring insight tive low CO2 emission energy supply scenarios; into long-term development of life-styles, so- and a discussion on measures for implementing cio-economics, and technology. Such scenar- low carbon emitting technologies and strategies. ios are of a normative character and therefore The IAEA and OECD/NEA also prepared a sup- are inherently subjective. What is known is porting document to the SAR, Nuclear Power in that energy consumption is one of the major the Context of Alleviating Greenhouse Gas sources of greenhouse gases, and nuclear Emissions, which was published in the IAEA power nowadays avoids more than 8% of the TECDOC series in April 1995. worldwide CO2 emissions. This article describes the main functions of Two major international bodies are involved these two international bodies and reports on the in climate change matters: the Conference of IAEA's contribution to the IPCC's second Sci- Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate entific Assessment Report, which is being sub- Change (CoP/FCCC), which had its First Ses- mitted in early 1996 to the CoP/FCCC . sion in March/April 1995, and the Intergovern- Global bodies related to climate change Mr. Van de Vate is a staff member of the IAEA Planning and Economics Studies Section in the IAEA Division of Nuclear In 1992, the UN Conference on Environment Power. Ms. Bertel, a former staff member of the Section, is now on the staff of the Nuclear Energy Agency, Organization for and Development (Earth Summit) in Rio dealt Economic Co-operation and Development in Paris. with the sustainability of the Earth in terms of IAEA BULLETIN, 4/1995 FEATURES avoiding climate change, environmental pollu- sidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) and the tion, and resource depletion. In Rio, the Frame- Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological work Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) Advice (SBSTA). In Berlin, the CoP/FCCC set up was signed. It entered into force in 1994 after the Ad hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AG/BM) being ratified by more than 50 countries. The to draft a protocol for the period beyond 2000. SBI FCCC's objective is to lower the atmospheric will develop recommendations to assist the CoP in greenhouse gas concentration to non-hazardous its review and assessment of the Convention's im- levels. This will require draconian measures, es- plementation. SBSTA will be the link between the pecially by the industrialized countries where scientific and technological assessments and the per capita CO2 emissions are more than ten information provided by international bodies on the times those of developing countries. Industrial- one hand, and the policy-oriented needs of the CoP ized countries will have to compensate for the on the other hand. The IAEA will be involved in increased CO2 emissions that are inherent to the activities carried out by these FCCC-related bodies. socio-economic development and rising popula- The IPCC is an independent, scientific, and tions of the developing countries. This equity technical body with a mission to help policy- consideration, laid down in the FCCC, is a fre- makers mitigate global climate change. As part quent political discussion point in inter-govern- of its work, the IPCC produces Scientific Assess- mental meetings related to climate change. ment Reports on climate change. Its first report The CoP/FCCC, the supreme body of the was published in 1990 and updated in a supple- Convention, was established by the Earth Sum- ment in 1992. The second report was endorsed in mit in 1992 and had its first session in Berlin, in late 1995 at the IPCC meeting in Madrid, and is March and April 1995. It reviews the implemen- expected to be published in early 1996. A third tation of the FCCC and makes decisions neces- assessment report is scheduled for 1998. sary to promote the Convention's implementa- In a co-operative project with the OECD, the tion. Several subsidiary bodies also have been IPCC has also produced Guidelines for National established: the Convention established the Sub- Greenhouse Gas Inventories. They will assist gov- Organizations related to the Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties I [United Nations Environment] World Meteorological (CoP/FCCC) I [ Programme (UNEP) I Organization Climate Change Secretariat I Intergovernmental Panel on Subsidiary bodies (UNFCCC) I Climate Change (IPCC) Subsidiary Body on Working Group I Implementation (SBI) Scientific Assessment Working Group II Ad hoc Group on the - Impacts, Adaptation ' Berlin Mandate (AG/BM) and Mitigation Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Working Group III " Technological Advice • Socio-economic and (SBSTA) Cross-cutting Issues IAEA BULLETIN, 4/1995 FEATURES ernments in reporting regularly to the reducing greenhouse gas emissions or other CoP/FCCC about the implementation of the na- health and environmental burdens in the short tional measures to lower their emissions of green- and medium terms. For example, carbon dioxide house gases. capture and disposal in deep oceans, or energy The Scientific Assessment Reports are drafted systems based upon hydrogen as a carrier, might by experts from a broad spectrum of scientific contribute substantially to greenhouse gas reduc- disciplines. They are subject to review by national tion in the long term. But they will by no means and international experts before being submitted be industrially mature and economically com- for approval by plenary meetings of IPCC and its petitive within the coming decades. Renewable three Working Groups. Working Group I, on Sci- sources, with the notable exceptions of hydropower entific Assessment, deals with climatology. Work- and biomass, do not offer realistic prospects for ing Group II, on Impacts, Adaptation and Mitiga- large-scale baseload electricity generation. tion, covers topics such as the rise of sea levels, energy, and desertification. Working Group III, on Socio-economic and Cross-cutting Issues, assesses Nuclear power and electricity options socio-economic literature related to climate change. Working Groups I and II have evaluated Nuclear power is a proven technology available CO2 emission scenarios with time horizons up to today that can contribute significantly to reducing 2100. greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental In contributing to these evaluations, the burdens from the energy sector and to meeting IAEA has emphasized the potential role of nu- environmental protection objectives. In the long clear energy in the context of comprehensive term — as the executive summary of the SAR comparative assessments. chapter on energy supply mitigation options states — "nuclear energy could replace baseload fossil fuel electricity generation in most parts of the The context of choices world, if generally acceptable responses can be found to concerns about reactor safety, radioactive All electricity generation options involve waste disposal, and proliferation". some environmental impacts. However, when The use of nuclear energy for electricity gen- they are fitted to state-of-the-art technologies, eration dates back to the late 1950s and it has the options are able to deliver electricity at rela- reached a stage of industrial maturity. At the end tively low risks to the environment. In particular, of 1994, there were 432 nuclear units connected a number of technical options exist for alleviat- to the grid with a total installed capacity of some ing or mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from 340 gigawatts-electric (GWe). In 1994, the nu- the power sector. Policy measures such as taxes, clear electricity generated worldwide exceeded subsidies, and emission permits can also be used 2300 terawatt-hours (TWh), supplying 17% of as a means to reflect the estimated full cost to the total electricity consumption.