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Indonesia Tobacco Indonesia Industry Focus Indonesia Tobacco Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 17 Jan 2019 JCI : 6,413.4 Fresh wave of optimism imminent Analyst Cigarettes expected to be one of the consumption David Arie Hartono +62 2130034936 beneficiaries in 2019 [email protected] Expect volume growth of +1.4% in FY19F vs -2.3% in STOCKS FY17; Key factor is the authorities’ decision to maintain 12-mth excise tax Price Mkt Cap Target Price Performance (%) Initiate tobacco sector with an Overweight call Rp US$m Rp 3 mth 12 mth Rating Initiate GGRM coverage with BUY; HMSP with HOLD Gudang Garam 84,300 11,455 94,700 8.2 144.7 BUY No excise tax hike in FY19F – should improve industry HM Sampoerna 3,850 31,626 4,100 N.A N.A HOLD volume and corporate earnings. There are two factors that Source: DBSVI, Bloomberg Finance L.P. should drive the volume growth in FY19F, (i) improvement in Closing price as of 16 Jan 2019 the cigarette industry’s volume, from the Presidential Election events in April 2019 and, (ii) the government’s decision not to Gudang Garam : PT Gudang Garam Tbk is an Indonesian company raise the excise tax on cigarettes in 2019. For existing cigarette engaged in the manufacturing of cigarettes. The company is a leading producers, this is great news as it would improve affordability manufacturer of kretek cigarettes (these clove-type of cigarettes are a and improve overall industry volume growth. We estimate the trademark of Indonesia). cigarette industry’s volume to grow by 1.4% y-o-y in FY19F. HM Sampoerna : PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna (HM Sampoerna) is We also assume higher earnings growth for both Gudang Indonesia's largest tobacco company controlling about 33% of Garam (GGRM) and HM Sampoerna (HMSP) in FY19F due to Indonesia Tobacco market. The company also distributes the famous the government’s decision not to raise the excise tax. Marlboro brand on the domestic market. Potentially higher demand for machine made full flavour cigarettes (SKM FF) segment. In our view, the gradual Indonesia Tobacco Industry Assumptions improvement in consumption purchasing power, especially in Industry volume 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F low to mid-level income groups, would improve demand for SKT 57,439 54,102 52,479 51,430 49,887 higher tar cigarettes in the SKM FF segment (which is more SPM 18,936 15,985 15,186 14,426 13,705 favored by the low to mid-income groups) rather than SPM or SKM LTLN 134,446 130,184 126,278 129,183 131,766 SKM LTN (low tar nicotine) which normally targets the mid to SKM FF 104,779 107,129 110,343 113,653 115,926 upper income groups. Total 315,600 307,400 304,286 308,692 311,284 GGRM is our top pick in the sector. We prefer companies y-o-y growth -1.4% -2.6% -1.0% 1.4% 0.8% with more exposure and products in the mid to low income Source: Nielsen and DBSVI Forecast segment in FY19F. We believe GGRM will be in a good position as the company has a very good market share in the SKM FF GGRM and HMSP market share (%) segment and no high-end products in the SPM segment. We estimate GGRM’s market share to improve to 26.9% in FY19F 40.0% 34.9% 34.7% 33.4% from 24.5% in FY17 – as we assume a strong improvement in 35.0% 33.0% 32.3% 32.8% market share in the SKM FF segment. 30.0% 26.9% 25.9% HMSP is not the biggest beneficiary of excise tax status 24.2% 24.5% 25.0% 23.3% 23.1% quo. In our view, the absence of excise tax hikes in FY19F will not benefit HMSP as much as its peers (such as GGRM) in 20.0% terms of volume growth. HMSP is traditionally strong in the 15.0% SKM LTN segment with its Sampoerna A-Mild brand, which is 10.0% typically popular with the younger generation. Furthermore, 5.0% the potential weighting adjustment in LQ45 and IDX30 could 0.0% poised as an overhang for HMSP share price. Thus, we initiate 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F GGRM market share HMSP market share with a HOLD call. Source: Companies, DBSVI forecast ed: KK/ sa: MA, CW, CS Industry Focus Indonesia Tobacco Investment Thesis Initiate the sector with an Overweight call, GGRM is our top improvement in consumption purchasing power, especially in pick. We initiate the tobacco sector with an Overweight call, low to mid-level income groups, would improve demand for on the premise of: higher tar cigarettes in the SKM FF segment (which is more favoured by the low to mid-income groups) rather than SPM - Improvement in earnings from both players under or SKM LTN (low tar nicotine) which normally targets the mid our coverage, HMSP and GGRM. We estimate HMSP to upper income groups. and GGRM to post better earnings growth of Sampoerna A Mild (SKM LTN) market share slipped (%) 29.1%/33.4% y-o-y, respectively. The improvement of earnings will be driven by an improvement in 16.0% gross profit margin (GPM); as we assume flat excise 14.0% tax in FY19F. 12.0% - We estimate an improvement in cigarette volume 10.0% growth in FY19F of 1.4% y-o-y. In our view, the improvement of volume growth will come in 1H19; 8.0% we expect consumption spending to be higher due 6.0% during this period due to, (i) pre-Presidential Election 4.0% and, (ii) no significant increase in household expenses in 1H19F. In our view, 2H19F volume 2.0% growth will not be too strong on the back of a 0.0% 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 potential hike of fuel price, post Presidential Election. This is more likely to impact consumption spending Sampoerna A Mild Dji Sam Soe Marlboro Sampoerna U Sampoerna Kretek of low to mid-level income groups. - We estimate GGRM and HMSP’s revenue growth of Source: Company 11.7%/9.4% y-o-y respectively in FY19F on the back of better volume growth. No change in excise tax in FY19F, should improve volume and earnings. There are two factors that may somewhat halt the - We remain cautious on the prospects of the overall industry’s volume decline in FY19F, (i) improvement in the cigarettes industry in Indonesia given lower cigarette industry’s volume, even though it would not be too affordability from a potential excise hike in FY20F. significant due to the Presidential Election events in April 2019 Cigarettes expected to be one of the consumption and, (ii) the government’s decision not to raise the excise tax beneficiaries arising from Presidential Election. We think on cigarettes in 2019. For existing cigarette producers, this is things should turn brighter this year for consumption, albeit at great news as it would improve affordability and improve a gradual pace. There are a few favourable factors: (i) the overall industry volume growth. We estimate the cigarette upcoming presidential election, government aid, (ii) low industry’s volume to grow by 1.4% y-o-y in FY19F. We also inflation, (iii) reversal of oil prices, and (iv) no change in assume higher earnings growth for both Gudang Garam electricity tariff. We believe that these factors will be positive (GGRM) and HM Sampoerna (HMSP) in FY19F due to the for consumption trend across the consumer products. government’s decision not to raise the excise tax. The upcoming Presidential Election may translate into a higher FY18F growth driven mostly by price adjustments. The consumption spending in mid to low income segment and it declining rate of cigarette production is expected to continue would immediate translate into spending on cigarettes. We in FY18F, particularly as - at the start of 2018 - a new average prefer companies with more exposure and offerings in the 10.04% excise tax hike came into effect that is expected to mid to low income segments in FY19F. put more pressure on Indonesia's cigarette industry. We Potentially higher demand in SKM FF segment. While we estimate industry volume to decline by 1% in FY18F to assume a recovery in domestic volume growth in FY19F on 304.2bn on the back of higher excise at the beginning of the the back of, (i) higher consumer purchasing power during the year. The growth for both companies under our coverage upcoming Presidential Election which may improve (GGRM and HMSP) came mostly from price adjustments (by 4- consumption in rural areas and, (ii) potential low price 10% in FY18F). adjustments in FY19F in the absence of an excise tax hike, which could improve affordability. In our view, the gradual Page 2 Industry Focus Indonesia Tobacco Initiate coverage of Gudang Garam (GGRM) with a BUY call tax revenue target for 2019F by 7.15% to Rp158.8tr (2018F: and TP of Rp94,700. We like GGRM as (i) a beneficiary of Rp148.2tr). The government has also decided to delay the potential higher consumption power, (ii) the absence of excise simplification of the excise tax. Under the currently proposed tax hike should improve its earnings in FY19F, and (iii) its valuation looks attractive at 15.7x FY19F PE - with the strong simplification, small- and mid-sized cigarette manufacturers improvement in profitability, working capital, and market will need to fend for themselves against the bigger players. As share; we believe that GGRM should continue to narrow its of end-October 2018, excise tax revenue collection reached valuation gap to HMSP (currently, the discount is at 45%).
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