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Gudang Garam Indonesia Company Focus Gudang Garam Bloomberg: GGRM IJ | Reuters: GGRM.JK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 17 Jan 2019 Finance L.P. BUY Lighting up (Initiating Coverage) The biggest beneficiary of the improvement in consumption Last Traded Price ( 16 Jan 2019): Rp84,300 (JCI : 6,413.4) power and absence of excise tax hike in FY19F Price Target 12-mth: Rp94,700 (12% upside) Expect revenue and earnings to grow by 12%/33% in FY19F Volume growth would be driven by SKM FF segment Potential Catalyst: No cigarettes excise tax hike in FY19F, improvement Initiate with a BUY call; our preferred pick in the sector in consumption, and improvement in market share. Initiate coverage with a BUY call and TP of Rp94,700. We like Analyst GGRM as (i) a beneficiary of potential higher consumption power, David Arie Hartono +62 2130034936 [email protected] (ii) the absence of excise tax hike should improve its earnings in Price Relative FY19F, and (iii) its valuation looks attractive at 15.7x FY19F PE - Rp Relative Index with the strong improvement in profitability, working capital, and 91,005.0 market share; we believe that GGRM should continue to narrow its 209 81,005.0 189 valuation gap to HMSP (currently, the discount is at 45%). 71,005.0 169 Potentially higher demand for machine made full flavour cigarettes 61,005.0 149 129 (SKM FF) segment. In our view, the gradual improvement in 51,005.0 109 41,005.0 consumption purchasing power, especially in low to mid-level 89 31,005.0 69 income groups, would improve demand for higher tar cigarettes in Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 the SKM FF segment (which is more favored by the low to mid- Gudang Garam (LHS) Relative JCI (RHS) income groups) rather than SPM or SKM LTN (low tar nicotine) Forecasts and Valuation which normally targets the mid to upper income groups. FY Dec (Rpbn) 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F GGRM is the biggest beneficiary, in our view. We estimate Revenue 83,306 90,706 101,307 110,599 EBITDA 13,481 12,787 16,583 17,490 GGRM’s market share to improve to 26.9% in FY19F from 24.5% Pre-tax Profit 10,437 10,423 13,903 14,719 in FY17 – as we assume market share gains in the SKM FF Net Profit 7,754 7,744 10,329 10,936 segment. We prefer companies with more exposure and products Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 7,754 7,744 10,329 10,936 EPS (Rp) 4,030 4,025 5,368 5,684 in the mid- to low-income segment in 2019 and we believe GGRM EPS Pre Ex. (Rp) 4,030 4,025 5,368 5,684 will be in a good position to benefit due to its strong market share EPS Gth (%) 16 0 33 6 in the SKM FF segment. We expect GGRM's revenue and earnings EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 16 0 33 6 to grow by 11.7%/33.4% in FY19F driven by SKM FF volume. Diluted EPS (Rp) 4,030 4,025 5,368 5,684 Net DPS (Rp) 2,600 2,418 2,415 3,221 Valuation: BV Per Share (Rp) 21,917 23,524 26,478 28,940 PE (X) 20.9 20.9 15.7 14.8 Our DCF-based TP of Rp94,700 for GGRM assumes a WACC of PE Pre Ex. (X) 20.9 20.9 15.7 14.8 10.3% and terminal growth of 4%. P/Cash Flow (X) 19.8 21.6 15.4 15.0 EV/EBITDA (X) 13.4 14.1 10.7 10.0 Key Risks to Our View: Net Div Yield (%) 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.8 Key downside risks are: (i) weaker-than-expected cigarette P/Book Value (X) 3.8 3.6 3.2 2.9 volume growth in FY19F, (ii) changes in excise tax, (iii) slower- Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 than-expected selling price increase, (iv) higher-than-expected ROAE (%) 19.0 17.7 21.5 20.5 capex for airport development, and (v) loss in market share. Consensus EPS (Rp): 4,313 4,911 5,446 Other Broker Recs: B: 25 S: 2 H: 1 At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,924 ICB Industry : Consumer Goods ICB Sector: Tobacco Mkt. Cap (Rpbn/US$m) 162,201 / 11,455 Principal Business: PT Gudang Garam Tbk is an Indonesian company Major Shareholders (%) engaged in the manufacturing of cigarettes. The company is a Suryaduta Investama (%) 69.3 leading manufacturer of kretek cigarettes (these clove-type of Suryamitra Kusuma (%) 6.3 cigarettes are a trademark of Indonesia). It produces a wide range Free Float (%) 24.4 of kretek ciga 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 5.9 Source of all data on this page: Company, DBSVI, Bloomberg ed: TH/ sa: MA, CW, CS Company Focus Gudang Garam Table of Contents SWOT Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Investment Thesis ...................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Key Assumption ......................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Gudang Garam Products............................................................................................................................................................ 6 Company Background ............................................................................................................................................................... 7 Key Management Team ............................................................................................................................................................. 8 Competitive Strengths ............................................................................................................................................................... 9 Growth Strategies ...................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Key Risks ................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Critical Data Points to Watch ................................................................................................................................................... 10 Income Statement ................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Quarterly Income Statement .................................................................................................................................................... 14 Balance Sheet .......................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Cash Flow Statement ............................................................................................................................................................... 16 Valuation ................................................................................................................................................................................. 17 Page 2 Company Focus Gudang Garam SWOT Analysis Strengths Weakness Gudang Garam (GGRM) strongly dominates the SKM FF Transactions related to its non-core business, such as segment, which keeps on winning back its market share in buying land for building an airport in Kediri from related Indonesia. parties could raise a corporate governance issue. GGRM is the second largest player with significant pricing Potential lower dividend payout ratio in FY19F. power. Opportunities Threats Upcoming Presidential Election, government aid, low Unfavourable government policies on the cigarette excise inflation, reversal of oil prices, and no change in electricity tariff tax, promotion and advertising of the product, and public in FY19F should boost the private consumption and should space for smoking. benefit cigarette volume. Unfavourable government policies that may decrease No change in cigarette excise tax would be a great news as purchasing power. it means that the cigarette companies do not have to raise their retail prices. Source: DBSVI Page 3 Company Focus Gudang Garam Investment Thesis Key catalyst: Potential high demand for SKM FF and Estimate revenue to grow at 11.7%/9.2% in FY19F/20F. estimate a strong earnings improvement from stable excise As of 9M18, GGRM had posted an improvement in revenue tax. We think things should turn brighter this year for growth which was mostly driven by higher volume growth (as consumption, albeit at a gradual pace. There are a few we view that GGRM has taken some market share from peers favourable factors: (i) the upcoming presidential election, by not increasing ASP as high as peers). Going forward, we government aid, (ii) low inflation, (iii) reversal of oil prices, forecast GGRM to post 11.7% revenue growth in FY19F on and (iv) no change in electricity tariff. We believe that these the back of (i) better industry volume growth from higher factors will be positive for consumption trend across the affordability (as there is no excise tax hike), (ii) as we foresee consumer products. a better consumption power in low- to mid-income level, we see GGRM as the biggest beneficiary next year and thus In our view, the gradual improvement in consumption boost the volume growth in FY19F. We assume a 5.3%/4% purchasing power, especially in low- to mid-level income volume growth in FY19F/20F, driven mostly from SKM FF groups, would improve demand for higher tar cigarettes in segment. Meanwhile, we also assume ASP to increase by the SKM FF segment (which is more favoured by the low- to 6%/5% in FY19F/20F in the SKM segment and assume
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