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Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, March 11, 2020

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Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, March 11, 2020 Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, March 11, 2020 FROM EQUITY RESEARCH KEY INDEX KEY INDEX Chg Ytd Vol Chg Ytd Vol Astra International: Resilient despite the challenges Close Close (ASII IJ. IDR 5,150 BUY TP. IDR 7,500) (%) (%) (US$ m) (%) (%) (US$ m) Looking forward, we expect Astra International’s automotive Asean - 5 Asean - 5 business to be adversely impacted by a) intense competition in the Indonesia 5,221 1.6 (17.1) 426 Indonesia 6,134 0.1 (1.0) 318 domestic car market and b) tepid domestic economic growth arising Thailand 1,271 1.2 (19.5) 2,385 Thailand 1,568 (0.1) 0.2 1,454 from anticipated global economic slowdown. Even so, we remain Philippines 6,318 0.1 (19.2) 145 Philippines 7,855 (0.3) 5.2 87 confident that ASII’s supply chain will remain resilient despite the Malaysia 1,430 0.4 (10.0) 854 Malaysia 1,562 (0.5) (7.6) 338 coronavirus outbreak as some indirect suppliers from China have Singapore 2,833 1.8 (12.1) 1,734 Singapore 3,173 (0.5) 3.4 908 indicated they are resuming operations. Maintain BUY with a lower Regional Regional target price of IDR7,500 (based on SOTP valuation) as we fine tune China 2,997 1.8 (1.7) 93,338 China 2,885 0.3 15.7 28,889 our earnings estimates post the results. Hong Kong 25,393 1.4 (9.9) 18,105 Hong Kong 26,391 (0.2) 2.1 9,093 To see the full version of this report, please click here Japan 19,867 0.9 (16.0) 22,327 Japan 23,380 (0.6) 16.8 10,278 Korea 1,966 0.1 (10.6) 7,411 Korea 2,068 (0.8) 1.3 3,790 Bank Negara Indonesia: Support from expanded NIM Taiwan 11,004 0.2 (8.3) 6,847 Taiwan 11,532 0.2 18.5 3,534 (BBNI IJ. IDR 5,675 BUY TP. IDR 8,000) India 35,635 (5.2) (13.6) 360 India 40,675 (0.3) 12.8 495 Post the 125bps policy rate cuts since mid-2019, we expect BBNI’s Nasdaq 8,344 5.0 (7.0) 231,552 Nasdaq 8,521 (0.6) 28.4 116,797 NIM to expand to 5.0% mainly supported by BBNI’s ability to Dow Jones 25,018 4.9 (12.3) 25,790 Dow Jones 27,503 (1.0) 17.9 11,490 manage its blended CoF. Our NIM estimate reflects a lower blended CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE CoF at 3.0%. In addition, we assume a 156.5% LLC ratio by w-w m-m ytd w-w m-m ytd December 2020F with an uptick in the gross NPLs ratio to 2.6% as Rate Rate (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) of December 2020F as the bank’s sizeable corporate lending Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,352 (0.5) (4.7) (3.5) Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,115 (0.2) (0.7) 1.9 exposure should impact the asset quality level amid global economic BI7DRRR % 4.75 (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) BI7DRRR % 5.00 - (0.3) (1.0) slowdown. BUY maintained with a new GGM-derived TP of IDR8,000 10y Gov Indo bond 6.97 0.4 0.4 (0.1) 10y Gov Indo bond 7.16 0.1 0.2 (0.9) (implying 1.2x 2020F PBV). To see the full version of this report, please click here HARD COMMODITY HARD COMMODITY d-d m-m ytd d-d m-m ytd Unit Price Unit Price (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) MARKET NEWS Coal US$/ton 65 0.2 (4.1) (3.5) Coal US$/ton 67 (0.3) 0.2 (34.0) MACROECONOMY Gold US$/toz 1,652 0.2 5.4 8.9 Gold US$/toz 1,478 (0.0) (2.1) 15.2 ▪ The government to offer a stimulus on VAT Nickel US$/mt.ton 12,634 0.2 (1.3) (9.4) Nickel US$/mt.ton 13,315 (2.5) (20.7) 25.6 SECTOR Tin US$/mt.ton 16,860 1.0 3.3 (1.9) Tin US$/mt.ton 16,771 1.5 1.7 (14.1) ▪ Retail: Retail Sales Index ticked down by 1.9% yoy CORPORATE SOFT COMMODITY SOFT COMMODITY d-d m-m ytd d-d m-m ytd ▪ Groundbreaking on GGRM’s airport to start on 15 April 2020 Unit Price Unit Price (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Cocoa US$/mt.ton N/A N/A N/A N/A Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,476 (1.0) 1.3 4.7 PREVIOUS REPORT Corn US$/mt.ton 143 1.1 (0.5) (0.8) Corn US$/mt.ton 141 1.7 (2.5) 5.6 ▪ Wijaya Karya Beton: Attractive valuation Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 34 (0.8) (31.7) (44.2) Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 56 0.6 (0.2) 24.3 ▪ Waskita Beton Precast: On the weak side Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 37 0.4 (30.8) (43.4) Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 61 (0.2) (1.4) 13.0 ▪ Uni-charm Indonesia: Poised for further growth Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,276 (8.7) (21.3) (24.8) Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,632 (1.3) 11.4 34.8 ▪ BTPN Syariah: Solid full year results Rubber USd/kg 130 1.3 (3.8) (10.4) Rubber USd/kg 142 0.9 6.9 13.6 ▪ Bukit Asam: To distribute attractive dividends Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5 Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5 ▪ Telco: Hutchison 3 Indonesia – meeting takeaways Coffee US$/60kgbag N/A N/A N/A N/A Coffee US$/60kgbag 72 0.3 7.9 3.5 ▪ Adaro Energy: 2019: Soft earnings on weak coal prices Sugar US$/MT 362 1.7 (15.8) 0.7 Sugar US$/MT 345 0.7 1.3 3.6 ▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Recovery underway Wheat US$/ton 142 (0.0) (4.0) (7.1) Wheat US$/ton 143 (1.9) 0.7 (5.1) ▪ PP London Sumatra: Comeback Year Soy Oil US$/lb 27 0.5 (10.4) (20.4) Soy Oil US$/lb 30 0.1 (3.4) 8.9 ▪ Japfa Comfeed Indonesia: Higher profits led by chicken prices SoyBean US$/by 873 1.1 (1.3) (7.4) Soy Bean US$/by 871 0.1 (5.8) (1.3) ▪ Sido Muncul: Healthy outlook ▪ Wijaya Karya Beton: In-line but flattish growth ▪ Danareksa Research Institute: February 2020 Inflation Outlook: Seasonally Lower ▪ Astra International: 2019: Flattish earnings ▪ Kalbe Farma: Decent performance albeit lower gross margins Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT Equity Research Company Update Wednesday,11 March 2020 BUY Astra International (ASII IJ) Maintain Resilient despite the challenges Last price (IDR) 5,150 Looking forward, we expect Astra International’s automotive business to be Target Price (IDR) 7,500 adversely impacted by: a) intense competition in the domestic car market and b) tepid domestic economic growth arising from anticipated global economic Upside/Downside +45.6% slowdown. Even so, we remain confident that ASII’s supply chain will remain Previous Target Price (IDR) 8,000 resilient despite the coronavirus outbreak as some indirect suppliers from China have indicated they are resuming operations. Maintain BUY with a Stock Statistics lower target price of IDR7,500 (based on SOTP valuation) as we fine tune our Sector Automotive earnings estimates post the results. Bloomberg Ticker ASII IJ Expect flattish growth in the domestic car market. We expect flattish growth No of Shrs (mn) 40,484 in the domestic car market of around 1.03mn units for 2020 against a backdrop Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 208,490/14,527 of soft commodity prices and heightened global uncertainties related to the Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 189.2/13.2 coronavirus outbreak which may affect trading activities globally. Any slowdown in global economic activities would likely result in sluggish domestic Major shareholders (%) economic growth. However, the 125bps BI rate cuts in 2019/20 and relaxation on the LTV may help to support the domestic car market this year. Jardine Cycle & Carriage 50.1 Estimated free float 49.9 Intense competition to persist. With the intense competition in the domestic car market to persist, the 2020 automotive EBIT margin will be squeezed, we believe. Nonetheless, we expect the automotive EBIT margin to trend upwards EPS Consensus (IDR) to 1.3% in 2022 supported by a stable rupiah/US dollar exchange rate. Although 2020F 2021F 2022F ASII was able to improve its automotive EBIT margin slightly to 0.7% in 2019 Danareksa 533.8 566.0 604.6 from 0.5% in 2018, the impact from stiff competition and forex fluctuations Consensus 567.6 597.8 651.6 resulted in a soft margin vs 2013’s level of 3.3%. Despite the intense competition, we expect stable market share of 51% for ASII in the domestic car Danareksa/Cons (5.9) (5.3) (7.2) market in 2020. ASII relative to JCI Index Securing the supply chain. The management indicated that ASII has been able to secure the supply chain of raw materials for March 2020 and possibly for April 2020 even though the coronavirus outbreak disrupted the supply chain from China (note that ASII has around 20 – 30 indirect Chinese suppliers). Also, with some of those suppliers reportedly resuming operations, ASII’s supply chain should remain resilient going forward. Maintain BUY with a lower TP of IDR7,500 (based on our SOTP valuation) after we fine tune our earnings forecasts post the 2019 results and the expectation of flattish growth in the car market in 2020.
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