Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, March 11, 2020

FROM EQUITY RESEARCH KEY INDEX KEY INDEX Chg Ytd Vol Chg Ytd Vol Astra International: Resilient despite the challenges Close Close (ASII IJ. IDR 5,150 BUY TP. IDR 7,500) (%) (%) (US$ m) (%) (%) (US$ m) Looking forward, we expect Astra International’s automotive Asean - 5 Asean - 5 business to be adversely impacted by a) intense competition in the Indonesia 5,221 1.6 (17.1) 426 Indonesia 6,134 0.1 (1.0) 318 domestic car market and b) tepid domestic economic growth arising Thailand 1,271 1.2 (19.5) 2,385 Thailand 1,568 (0.1) 0.2 1,454 from anticipated global economic slowdown. Even so, we remain Philippines 6,318 0.1 (19.2) 145 Philippines 7,855 (0.3) 5.2 87 confident that ASII’s supply chain will remain resilient despite the Malaysia 1,430 0.4 (10.0) 854 Malaysia 1,562 (0.5) (7.6) 338 coronavirus outbreak as some indirect suppliers from China have Singapore 2,833 1.8 (12.1) 1,734 Singapore 3,173 (0.5) 3.4 908 indicated they are resuming operations. Maintain BUY with a lower Regional Regional target price of IDR7,500 (based on SOTP valuation) as we fine tune China 2,997 1.8 (1.7) 93,338 China 2,885 0.3 15.7 28,889 our earnings estimates post the results. Hong Kong 25,393 1.4 (9.9) 18,105 Hong Kong 26,391 (0.2) 2.1 9,093 To see the full version of this report, please click here Japan 19,867 0.9 (16.0) 22,327 Japan 23,380 (0.6) 16.8 10,278 Korea 1,966 0.1 (10.6) 7,411 Korea 2,068 (0.8) 1.3 3,790 Bank Negara Indonesia: Support from expanded NIM Taiwan 11,004 0.2 (8.3) 6,847 Taiwan 11,532 0.2 18.5 3,534 (BBNI IJ. IDR 5,675 BUY TP. IDR 8,000) India 35,635 (5.2) (13.6) 360 India 40,675 (0.3) 12.8 495 Post the 125bps policy rate cuts since mid-2019, we expect BBNI’s Nasdaq 8,344 5.0 (7.0) 231,552 Nasdaq 8,521 (0.6) 28.4 116,797 NIM to expand to 5.0% mainly supported by BBNI’s ability to Dow Jones 25,018 4.9 (12.3) 25,790 Dow Jones 27,503 (1.0) 17.9 11,490

manage its blended CoF. Our NIM estimate reflects a lower blended CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE CoF at 3.0%. In addition, we assume a 156.5% LLC ratio by w-w m-m ytd w-w m-m ytd December 2020F with an uptick in the gross NPLs ratio to 2.6% as Rate Rate (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) of December 2020F as the bank’s sizeable corporate lending Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,352 (0.5) (4.7) (3.5) Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,115 (0.2) (0.7) 1.9 exposure should impact the asset quality level amid global economic BI7DRRR % 4.75 (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) BI7DRRR % 5.00 - (0.3) (1.0) slowdown. BUY maintained with a new GGM-derived TP of IDR8,000 10y Gov Indo bond 6.97 0.4 0.4 (0.1) 10y Gov Indo bond 7.16 0.1 0.2 (0.9) (implying 1.2x 2020F PBV). To see the full version of this report, please click here HARD COMMODITY HARD COMMODITY d-d m-m ytd d-d m-m ytd Unit Price Unit Price (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) MARKET NEWS Coal US$/ton 65 0.2 (4.1) (3.5) Coal US$/ton 67 (0.3) 0.2 (34.0) MACROECONOMY Gold US$/toz 1,652 0.2 5.4 8.9 Gold US$/toz 1,478 (0.0) (2.1) 15.2 ▪ The government to offer a stimulus on VAT Nickel US$/mt.ton 12,634 0.2 (1.3) (9.4) Nickel US$/mt.ton 13,315 (2.5) (20.7) 25.6 SECTOR Tin US$/mt.ton 16,860 1.0 3.3 (1.9) Tin US$/mt.ton 16,771 1.5 1.7 (14.1) ▪ Retail: Retail Sales Index ticked down by 1.9% yoy CORPORATE SOFT COMMODITY SOFT COMMODITY d-d m-m ytd d-d m-m ytd ▪ Groundbreaking on GGRM’s airport to start on 15 April 2020 Unit Price Unit Price (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Cocoa US$/mt.ton N/A N/A N/A N/A Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,476 (1.0) 1.3 4.7 PREVIOUS REPORT Corn US$/mt.ton 143 1.1 (0.5) (0.8) Corn US$/mt.ton 141 1.7 (2.5) 5.6 ▪ Wijaya Karya Beton: Attractive valuation Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 34 (0.8) (31.7) (44.2) Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 56 0.6 (0.2) 24.3 ▪ Waskita Beton Precast: On the weak side Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 37 0.4 (30.8) (43.4) Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 61 (0.2) (1.4) 13.0 ▪ Uni-charm Indonesia: Poised for further growth Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,276 (8.7) (21.3) (24.8) Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,632 (1.3) 11.4 34.8 ▪ BTPN Syariah: Solid full year results Rubber USd/kg 130 1.3 (3.8) (10.4) Rubber USd/kg 142 0.9 6.9 13.6 ▪ Bukit Asam: To distribute attractive dividends Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5 Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5 ▪ Telco: Hutchison 3 Indonesia – meeting takeaways Coffee US$/60kgbag N/A N/A N/A N/A Coffee US$/60kgbag 72 0.3 7.9 3.5 ▪ Adaro Energy: 2019: Soft earnings on weak coal prices Sugar US$/MT 362 1.7 (15.8) 0.7 Sugar US$/MT 345 0.7 1.3 3.6 ▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Recovery underway Wheat US$/ton 142 (0.0) (4.0) (7.1) Wheat US$/ton 143 (1.9) 0.7 (5.1) ▪ PP London Sumatra: Comeback Year Soy Oil US$/lb 27 0.5 (10.4) (20.4) Soy Oil US$/lb 30 0.1 (3.4) 8.9 ▪ Japfa Comfeed Indonesia: Higher profits led by chicken prices SoyBean US$/by 873 1.1 (1.3) (7.4) Soy Bean US$/by 871 0.1 (5.8) (1.3) ▪ Sido Muncul: Healthy outlook

▪ Wijaya Karya Beton: In-line but flattish growth

▪ Danareksa Research Institute: February 2020 Inflation

Outlook: Seasonally Lower

▪ Astra International: 2019: Flattish earnings

▪ Kalbe Farma: Decent performance albeit lower gross margins

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Equity Research

Company Update

Wednesday,11 March 2020 BUY Astra International (ASII IJ) Maintain Resilient despite the challenges

Last price (IDR) 5,150 Looking forward, we expect Astra International’s automotive business to be Target Price (IDR) 7,500 adversely impacted by: a) intense competition in the domestic car market and b) tepid domestic economic growth arising from anticipated global economic Upside/Downside +45.6% slowdown. Even so, we remain confident that ASII’s supply chain will remain Previous Target Price (IDR) 8,000 resilient despite the coronavirus outbreak as some indirect suppliers from China have indicated they are resuming operations. Maintain BUY with a Stock Statistics lower target price of IDR7,500 (based on SOTP valuation) as we fine tune our Sector Automotive earnings estimates post the results. Bloomberg Ticker ASII IJ Expect flattish growth in the domestic car market. We expect flattish growth No of Shrs (mn) 40,484 in the domestic car market of around 1.03mn units for 2020 against a backdrop Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 208,490/14,527 of soft commodity prices and heightened global uncertainties related to the Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 189.2/13.2 coronavirus outbreak which may affect trading activities globally. Any slowdown in global economic activities would likely result in sluggish domestic Major shareholders (%) economic growth. However, the 125bps BI rate cuts in 2019/20 and relaxation on the LTV may help to support the domestic car market this year. Jardine Cycle & Carriage 50.1 Estimated free float 49.9 Intense competition to persist. With the intense competition in the domestic car market to persist, the 2020 automotive EBIT margin will be squeezed, we believe. Nonetheless, we expect the automotive EBIT margin to trend upwards EPS Consensus (IDR) to 1.3% in 2022 supported by a stable rupiah/US dollar exchange rate. Although 2020F 2021F 2022F ASII was able to improve its automotive EBIT margin slightly to 0.7% in 2019 Danareksa 533.8 566.0 604.6 from 0.5% in 2018, the impact from stiff competition and forex fluctuations Consensus 567.6 597.8 651.6 resulted in a soft margin vs 2013’s level of 3.3%. Despite the intense competition, we expect stable market share of 51% for ASII in the domestic car Danareksa/Cons (5.9) (5.3) (7.2) market in 2020.

ASII relative to JCI Index Securing the supply chain. The management indicated that ASII has been able to secure the supply chain of raw materials for March 2020 and possibly for April 2020 even though the coronavirus outbreak disrupted the supply chain from China (note that ASII has around 20 – 30 indirect Chinese suppliers). Also, with some of those suppliers reportedly resuming operations, ASII’s supply chain should remain resilient going forward.

Maintain BUY with a lower TP of IDR7,500 (based on our SOTP valuation) after we fine tune our earnings forecasts post the 2019 results and the expectation of flattish growth in the car market in 2020. While competition in the 4W market remains intense and soft commodity prices will adversely impact the heavy equipment and mining business, we maintain our BUY call as the stock is trading at an undemanding -2SD. Our new TP implies 2020F PE of 14.0x.

Source : Bloomberg Key Financials

Year to 31 Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F Revenue (IDRbn) 239,205 237,166 242,111 252,295 264,718 EBITDA (IDRbn) 35,527 37,786 39,086 41,617 43,978 EBITDA Growth (%) 29.8 6.4 3.4 6.5 5.7 Net profit (IDRbn) 21,673 21,707 21,612 22,915 24,476 EPS (IDR) 535.4 536.2 533.8 566.0 604.6

EPS growth (%) 15.0 0.2 (0.4) 6.0 6.8

BVPS (IDR) 3,382.8 3,652.0 3,917.8 4,216.9 4,538.5 DPS (IDR) 190.0 211.1 268.1 266.9 283.0

x Stefanus Darmagiri PER (x) 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.1 8.5 PBV (x) 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 (62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3530 Dividend yield (%) 3.7 4.1 5.2 5.2 5.5 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 7.6 7.3 7.2 6.7 6.3

Source : ASII, Danareksa Estimates

www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1

Equity Research

Company Update

Wednesday,11 March 2020 Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) BUY Maintain Support from expanded NIM

Last price (IDR) 5,675 Post the 125bps policy rate cuts since mid-2019, we expect BBNI’s NIM to Target Price (IDR) 8,000 expand to 5.0% mainly supported by BBNI’s ability to manage its blended CoF. Our NIM estimate reflects a lower blended CoF at 3.0%. In addition, we Upside/Downside +41.0% assume a 156.5% LLC ratio by December 2020F with an uptick in the gross Previous Target Price (IDR) 9,000 NPLs ratio to 2.6% as of December 2020F as the bank’s sizeable corporate lending exposure should impact the asset quality level amid global economic Stock Statistics slowdown. BUY maintained with a new GGM-derived TP of IDR8,000 Sector Banking (implying 1.2x 2020F PBV). Bloomberg Ticker BBNI IJ No of Shrs (mn) 18,649 Less bumpy ride going forward. Post the shareholders’ approval at the AGM to appoint a new Board of Directors (BOD) and Board of Commissioners (BOC), Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 105,831/7,374 BBNI is expected to grow its business, particularly its loans book, at a more Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 171.1/11.9 sustainable growth rate. Moreover, with more directors coming from the internal side, we believe there will be minimal kitchen sinking. Furthermore, Major shareholders (%) Agus Martowardoyo as the President Commissioner will provide more prudent Government of Indonesia 60.0 risk management in regard to managing the loans portfolio, in our view. All in all, we forecast 8.1% yoy loans growth for this year. Estimated free float 40.0 Expect a 5.0% NIM this year. With a total of 125bps policy rate cuts since mid EPS Consensus (IDR) 2019, the NIM should tick upwards by c.10bps to 5.0% this year. This is based 2020F 2021F 2022F on our assumption of a lower asset yield at 7.7% given the 52.0% corporate segment exposure to total loans by December 2020F. In addition, payroll loans Danareksa 836.1 851.1 918.1 as another growth engine are only expected to contribute 5.7% to total loans Consensus 932.9 1,043.8 1,123.3 by December 2020F (December 2019: 4.8% of the total loans book). Danareksa/Cons (10.4) (18.5) (18.3) Ample LLC ratio. We expect the gross NPLs ratio to edge upwards to 2.7% by BBNI relative to JCI Index December 2020F given the bank’s sizeable exposure to the corporate segment. In our view, this segment stands to be impacted from the slowdown in global economic activity. We already include one-off provisioning expenses of IDR15tn offset to its retained earnings in our model. As such, the Loan Loss Coverage (LLC) ratio should reach 156.5% by December 2020F in our model. Our sensitivity analysis also suggests that every 10bps drop in the gross NPLs ratio should elevate its LLC ratio by 8.2%, ceteris paribus.

Maintain BUY, new TP of IDR8,000. We maintain our BUY call on BBNI with a new GGM-derived TP of IDR8,000 (implying 1.2x 2020F P/BV) assuming a 10.4% CoE, 12.3% sustainable ROAE and 3% long-term growth. Our TP is at its -0.5 of its standard deviation of 10-year mean at 1.2x PBV.

Key Financials Source : Bloomberg Year to 31 Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F

PPOP (IDRbn) 26,988 28,325 29,117 30,472 32,344 Net profit (IDRbn) 15,015 15,384 15,591 15,872 17,121

EPS (IDR) 805.2 825.0 836.1 851.1 918.1

EPS growth (%) 10.3 2.5 1.3 1.8 7.9

BVPS (IDR) 5,795.4 6,569.7 6,392.4 7,030.7 7,719.3

Eka Savitri PER (x) 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.2 (62-21) 5091 4100 ext.3506 PBV (x) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 [email protected] Dividend yield (%) 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 4.0 ROAE (%) 14.5 13.3 12.9 12.7 12.4

Source : BBNI, Danareksa Estimates

www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1

Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, March 11, 2020

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY The government to offer a stimulus on VAT The Ministry of Finance will provide another stimulus for businesses by increasing the base of VAT restitution from IDR1bn to IDR5bn. Hence, for those companies who seek VAT restitution, the maximum amount that can be given will increase from IDR1bn to IDR5bn. In addition, the government may provide other fiscal stimulus on items such as individual income tax, corporate income tax, and import tax. The fiscal stimulus that is being considered by the government will be included in the Economic Stimulus Stage II, after the implementation of Stage I in the previous month which mainly focused on the tourism sector. (Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily)

SECTOR Retail: Retail Sales Index ticked down by 1.9% yoy With the latest February projected number standing at 214.0 (-1.9%) from the previous year and -1.6% MoM, the highest drop was witnessed in Telcos and communication equipment at 306.4 which slipped 6.1% yoy and -3.6% MoM, with other goods down 23.4% YoY at 148.9 which also includes clothing sales, partially explained by seasonality. Price increases are likely in the coming 3 months due to Covid-19 affecting imports of raw materials and finished goods. (Kontan)

CORPORATE Groundbreaking on GGRM’s airport to start on 15 April 2020 Gudang Garam (GGRM) plans to undertake groundbreaking on the Dhoho Kediri Airport on 15 April 2020. In 2022, PT Angkasa Pura I (AP I) will be the airport operator. The land acquisition is almost complete (around 99% of the total 400ha of land). GGRM has appointed PP Presisi (PPRE) as the contractor for this project. The construction of the airport will be developed in four phases with total estimated investment of IDR6tn to IDR9tn. This year, the capex for the airport will be financed from internal cash. Dhoho Kediri Airport will be an alternative airport in East Java, and may attract travelers given the overcapacity in Juanda International airport (Surabaya), which served more than 16.6mn passengers in 2019 on 129,000 flights. The management of GGRM said there is no profit target for the airport project, which will be built using the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme. (Kontan)

Comment: By the end of September 2019, GGRM’s debt to equity was 19% with IDR3.5tn of cash. To finance the airport development, we expect a lower dividend payout going forward. In the period 2016-19, GGRM’s dividend payout ratio was 65-78%. (Natalia Sutanto)

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, March 11, 2020

COVERAGE PERFORMANCE

LEADERS

Price as on Code 10-Mar-20 09-Mar-20 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating Kimia Farma KAEF 665 580 14.7 (11.3) (30.4) (46.8) HOLD Kino Indonesia KINO 2,940 2,780 5.8 (2.3) (2.0) (14.3) BUY Japfa Comfeed JPFA 1,460 1,400 4.3 (4.3) (0.3) (4.9) BUY Astra International ASII 5,700 5,525 3.2 (6.6) (9.2) (17.7) BUY Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 100 97 3.1 (9.9) (9.9) (28.6) SELL Indofood INDF 6,675 6,500 2.7 (7.3) (13.0) (15.8) BUY Indosat ISAT 2,090 2,040 2.5 (3.7) (3.7) (28.2) BUY Semen Baturaja SMBR 266 260 2.3 (9.5) (10.1) (39.5) SELL Vale Indonesia INCO 2,500 2,450 2.0 (16.9) (23.1) (31.3) BUY Aneka Tambang ANTM 585 575 1.7 (14.6) (18.2) (30.4) BUY Sources: Bloomberg

LAGGARDS

Price as on Code 10-Mar-20 09-Mar-20 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating Ramayana RALS 905 1,035 (12.6) (6.2) (9.5) (15.0) BUY Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 1,120 1,205 (7.1) (16.1) (18.8) (29.3) BUY Mitra Adi Perkasa MAPI 755 800 (5.6) (6.8) (17.0) (28.4) BUY Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 3,980 4,190 (5.0) (11.4) (10.8) (9.5) NON RATED Alam Sutera ASRI 145 152 (4.6) (16.2) (22.0) (39.1) BUY Bank Mandiri BMRI 6,950 7,275 (4.5) (10.6) (7.3) (9.4) BUY Ace Hardware ACES 1,450 1,515 (4.3) (4.0) (9.4) (3.0) SELL Ciputra Development CTRA 905 945 (4.2) (3.7) 4.0 (13.0) BUY Tower Bersama TBIG 1,060 1,105 (4.1) (10.2) (8.6) (13.8) BUY Wijaya Karya WIKA 1,800 1,875 (4.0) (8.6) (4.3) (9.5) BUY Sources: Bloomberg

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, March 11, 2020

PREVIOUS REPORTS

▪ Wijaya Karya Beton: Attractive valuation ▪ Waskita Beton Precast: On the weak side ▪ Uni-charm Indonesia: Poised for further growth ▪ BTPN Syariah: Solid full year results ▪ Bukit Asam: To distribute attractive dividends ▪ Telco: Hutchison 3 Indonesia – meeting takeaways ▪ Adaro Energy: 2019: Soft earnings on weak coal prices ▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Recovery underway ▪ PP London Sumatra: Comeback Year ▪ Japfa Comfeed Indonesia: Higher profits led by chicken prices ▪ Sido Muncul: Healthy outlook ▪ Wijaya Karya Beton: In-line but flattish growth ▪ Danareksa Research Institute: February 2020 Inflation Outlook: Seasonally Lower ▪ Astra International: 2019: Flattish earnings ▪ Kalbe Farma: Decent performance albeit lower gross margins ▪ Matahari Department Store: New Decade, New Start ▪ United Tractors: Soft 4Q19, while maintaining 2019 earnings ▪ Sarana Menara Nusantara: Feeding organic growth ▪ United Tractors : Monthly sales recovery ▪ Vale Indonesia: Still Promising ▪ Media: 2019: Attractive Regardless of Omnibus Law Conundrum ▪ Indosat Ooredoo: Stomping its feet ▪ Indo Tambangraya: 2019: Soft coal prices hit earnings ▪ Strategy: Battling the slowdown ▪ Poultry: The Family Planning Program for Chickens ▪ Bank Central Asia: Maintain its conservative style ▪ Vale Indonesia: 4Q19: Strong prices lifted profit ▪ Adhi Karya: May seek additional capital from shareholders ▪ Danareksa Research Institute: January Update: Large Deficit in the Beginning of the Year ▪ Astra International: Soft January sales, but stable market share for Astra ▪ Adaro Energy: Flattish coal production target for 2020 ▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: A better start ▪ SIDO MUNCUL: Inline 4Q19 earnings ▪ Danareksa Research Institute: January Outlook: Remaining Soft ▪ Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa: Bad weather resulted in sluggish sales ▪ Semen Indonesia: Supported by solid export sales ▪ Bank Mandiri: Leading the way ▪ Ace Hardware: Uptick from New Year’s Flooding and CNY ▪ XL Axiata: 2019 solid earnings, 4Q19 limited contributiont ▪ Unilever Indonesia: Value Emerges ▪ Telco: Telco price tracker Jan 2020 ▪ HM Sampoerna: FY19 volume: Still sluggish ▪ Strategy : Quarterly contraction ▪ Plantation: Opportunity Underneath Noises ▪ Danareksa Research Institute: Q4 2019 Economic Developments: Slowest Pace in 3 Years ▪ Poultry : H5N1 Virus: The Inevitable Risk ▪ Media: New Year, New Contender ▪ Q4 2019 GDP Outlook: Slower Growth ▪ Jasa Marga: Year of adjustment

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, March 11, 2020

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Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Economic Calendar

Date Time Event Period 17-Feb-20 Trade Balance Jan 17-Feb-20 Exports YoY Jan 17-Feb-20 Imports YoY Jan 17-Feb-20 Local Auto Sales Jan 20-Feb-20 Bank Indonesia 7D Reverse Repo 20-Feb 26-Feb-20 Danareksa Consumer Confidence Feb 2-Mar-20 Markit Indonesia PMI Mfg Feb 2-Mar-20 CPI Core YoY Feb 2-Mar-20 CPI NSA MoM Feb 2-Mar-20 CPI YoY Feb 6-Mar-20 Net Foreign Assets IDR Feb 6-Mar-20 Foreign Reserves Feb 9-Mar-20 Consumer Confidence Index Feb 15-Mar-20 Local Auto Sales Feb 16-Mar-20 Trade Balance Feb 16-Mar-20 Exports YoY Feb 16-Mar-20 Imports YoY Feb

Source: Bloomberg

Disclaimer

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Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT