Weekly Briefing: December 13Th

South China Sea Intelligence Briefngs Weekly Briefing: December 13th At The Open Source Briefing, we remain committed to providing the public with ongoing developments around the globe. United States Author: Kevin O’Connell Courtesy of USNI News There were several high-profile developments in the United States this week, including the White House’s Office of Management and Budget’s release of a Fiscal Planning Framework (FPF) including the Navy’s 30-year Shipbuilding Plan[1], the announcement of the planned nomination of retired Army General and commander of U.S. CENTCOM Lloyd Austin to serve as Secretary of Defense[2], and the passing of the annual National Defense Authorization Act in the United States Senate[3]. While these developments will undoubtedly impact the United States’ strategy in the South China Sea, they remain speculative pending the next administration’s endorsement, senatorial confirmation, and Presidential approval, respectively. As such, these topics are not heavily emphasized in this report. Instead, highlights of this report include the USS Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) operating in the South China Sea The Open Source Briefing 1 from December 6th through December 12th, a B1-B Lancer flight over the South China Sea as part of a Bomber Task Force (BTF) deployment on December 10th, and regular United States Navy and Air Force flights over both the South China Se and East China Sea including one by a U-2 north of Taiwan. Courtesy of USNI News The first of these updates focuses on the USS Makin Island ARG’s operations in the South China Sea. With the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group (CSG) having recently returned to port in Yokosuka after an extended deployment, and the USS America (LHA-6) in port at Sasebo, the Makin Island ARG takes on a critical role for United States power projection in the Indo-Pacific. The Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) is currently made up of USS Makin Island (LHD-8), USS San Diego (LPD- 22), and USS Somerset (LPD-25).[4][5] There are indications that USS Makin Island passed West through the Luzon Strait on December 6th and joined up with USS Somerset after she passed through the Philippines, also on December 6th.[6][7] After five days of continuous operations, the Makin Island ARG transited the Singapore Strait on December 11th and continued northbound through the Strait of Malacca, joined by USNS Big Horn (T-AO-198).[8][9] Interestingly, the USS Port Royal (CG-73) also The Open Source Briefing 2 passed North through the Strait of Malacca just days earlier, on December 8th.[10] With the Makin Island ARG presumably still in the Indian Ocean, this leaves INDO-PACOM without a ‘large deck’ large-deck amphibious assault ship or aircraft carrier at sea in the Western Pacific. Courtesy of Pacific Air Forces The next update focused on the ongoing Bomber Task Force (BTF) B-1B deployment to Andersen AFB, Guam. At least one of the four B-1Bs currently deployed to the base conducted a flight over the South China Sea on December 10th as part of a more extensive exercise involving F-22A aircraft also stationed at Andersen AFB. The flight over the South China Sea was “to conduct stand-off weapons training with the goal of improving coordination with command and control elements.”[11][12] These BTF deployments play a critical role in overall United States force posture in the Indo-Pacific as they represent an unpredictable and credible strategic deterrent. The Open Source Briefing 3 Courtesy of ainonlin.com The third significant update for the United States in the Indo-Pacific is the ongoing high-tempo aerial surveillance and patrol operations. Most of these flights appear to have been completed by P-8A Poseidons, RC-135W Rivet Joints, and their supporting KC135-R/T Stratotankers.[13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21] Interestingly, there was one U.S. Air Force flight this week that was out of pattern. On December 9th, a U-2S Dragon Lady took off from South Korea and flew South to a point just north of Taiwan.[22] While U-2 flights do occur in theatre, notably one overflew a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) exercise in August, one so close to both Taiwan and China is striking. A few additional operational updates include the arrival of the Legend-class cutter USCGC Waesch (WMSL-751) in Yokosuka on December 8th[23], the arrival in Singapore and drydocking of USNS Vadm K. R. Wheeler (T-AG-5001) and USNS Fast Tempo on December 9th[24][25], and the arrival of USNS Charles Drew (T-AKE-10) in Yokosuka on December 13th.[26] The Open Source Briefing 4 Japan Author: Gaetano Scalise On Monday, Japan’s Self Defense Ground forces announced the holding of joint drills with U.S forces on the main island of Honshu, in both the southwest and central areas. The drills were given the names Yama Sakura and Forest Light, and will be conducted in the Niigata and Gunma Prefectures.[1] Japan Times reports that Yama Sakura began on December 2nd and will continue until Dec. 15th. 4,000 JGSDF personnel will take part in conjunction with 1,000 of their American counterparts and will utilize various assets such as CH-47 helicopters and MV-22 Ospreys. Japan Times reports further that the operational focus of the exercise will be working on the ability to seize and defend key maritime terrain.”[2] These statements on the exercise’s focus highlight a crucial commitment of the two allies to defend Japan’s maritime claims in the East China Sea and elsewhere. Japanese officials have made vocal concerns about coincidental land purchases made by South Korean and Chinese companies near key Japanese military installations. South China Post reports that these transactions have been monitored over the last decade, but have gained more attention in the past several years with China’s recent assertive attitude in the region.[3] Approximately 80 plots of land were sold to such companies, with additional sales being blocked by Japan’s government for concern that the South Koreans and Chinese were buying pieces of land in territory that were hotly disputed in the East China Sea. The aforementioned transactions of Chinese companies, in particular, are not new. In fact, U.S intelligence personnel have pointed out that the U.S government suspects that certain Chinese land purchases in Texas could enable individuals to gather intel on critical military facilities. In an important strategic update, Japan’s National Security Council announced that it will upgrade certain vessels with the powerful Aegis radar after canceling plans to build ground-based radar stations. At the cost of $2 billion, the updated Spy-7 radar system will give the JSDF the capability to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles with their new interceptor missiles.[5] The Open Source Briefing 5 Photo courtesy of the Japanese Ministry of Defense China Author: Tad Unruh China has continued its pressing behavior across the SCS into December. Image Courtesy South China Morning Post The Open Source Briefing 6 The Chinese military has to create ‘livable’ conditions on specific Spratly islands since their push for claims ramped back up in 2015. These reefs and atolls have been modified with airstrips, military facilities, anti-aircraft guns and weapons systems, essentially making them habitable for PLA forces.[i] China has long posited that these claims and military established sites are worthy of an Exclusive Economic Zone, encapsulating its waters. They are fashioned in Chinese PR as being forward defense mechanisms, but are they actually defensible? An article in a Beijing based monthly magazine named Naval and Merchant Ships, that is published by the China State Shipbuilding Corporation, has highlighted several issues with their distance from the mainland, small size, and small airstrip size.[ii] It is considerably rare for a Chinese state-owned enterprise to criticize a defense issue like this publicly. The article by the magazine also says that it could take up to 20 hours for mainland ships to reach the islands in its defense, and there wouldn’t be any ability to store and host the J-16 fighters.[iii] Image Courtesy CSIS/AMTI Amongst the talk of defense and offense in the Spratly Islands, the Chinese PLA Navy has continued its gray zone warfare campaign of pushing its claims through in the SCS. On December 4th, CSIS’s Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative announced its yearly review of China’s power projection capabilities in the South China Sea.[i] Above is a picture of that map via a tweet, and this hyperlink provides an interactive map, with toggles for radar, missile, and aircraft ranges. The PLA Navy has executed several drills this week in the SCS in response to US Navy actions in the region. The PLA Type 056A corvette warship group of the Enshi, The Open Source Briefing 7 Yongzhou, and Guangyuan, conducted practice against incoming missile detection, smoke and flare deployment and live-fire drills on a target ship, announced by China National Radio.[ii] The exercise went on for about 7 days, starting on December 1st. Later in the week, Friday, December 11th, the Chinese Coast Guard executed a maritime rescue drill, an overview of aerial/underwater search, maritime personnel and property rescue as well as maritime fire-fighting.[iii] The United States Congressional Research Service Report, on China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities and Background issues for Congress was released on December 3rd, 2020. It highlights the continued watch of ever-expanding Chinese naval power.[iv] The following week’s briefing will cover the report in more depth.

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