South China Sea Intelligence Briefngs Weekly Briefing: April 25th, 2021 At The Open Source Briefing, we remain committed to providing the public with ongoing developments around the globe. United States Author: Gaetano Scalise Courtesy of USNI Fleet Tracker For each week’s briefing, the U.S Navy’s strategically critical ships are tracked and their movements are analyzed. This week however, we report that the USS Reagan is still in Yokosuka Harbor and the USS Theodore Roosevelt was at sea, but its general whereabouts are unknown. Since there are no significant FONOPs, no other vessel updates are necessary. On the topic of exercises, earlier in the week, the U.S Air Force’s 909th Aerial Refueling Squadron and Pearl Harbor Hickam Air Force Base F22 Raptors held a joint training exercise to enhance operability. [1] A crucial show of support for the Taiwanese was hinted this week as Taiwan Press reported the alleged sale of Howitzers to assist in the defense of the island nation. It must be noted that we will continue to see more arms deals between the two nations as the U.S media has sounded the alarm on a “possible” attempted invasion of Taiwan within the next decade. [2] Analysis of past arms deals by military experts strongly suggests that the type The Open Source Briefing 1 of arms provided must give Taiwan a cost-effective option in which opposing forces are halted before they reach land. Suggestions of anti-ship missiles being such a tool was mentioned in the past, at the present moment, the arms provided will look to be similar to howitzers and M-1 Abrams. Continuing discussion of Taiwan, in the past week it was reported that Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga stated that Japan would not be getting involved militarily if Taiwan were to come under attack. [3] This statement makes sense as the Japanese Constitution still is written so that the Self Defense Force may only respond if the nation comes under attack. With this in consideration, Japan would still provide logistical support in the event that the U.S becomes involved. With further analysis, one can conclude that Japanese military officials know that even with logistical support, an attack to disrupt any assistance to U.S forces would inevitably allow Japan to respond appropriately. With the extent of American Naval and Air support on the main island of Honshu, it is probable that opposing forces would have no qualms about targeting those installations if it means a significant shift in the conflict. Concern of restricted power based on Japan’s Constitution can be considered overblown, and can be hinted by Japan’s hosting of an upcoming war game with the U.S and France [4] China and Taiwan Author: Tad Unruh (SCMP) In comparison to the previous weeks of April, this one has been relatively calm on the China-Taiwan cross-strait conflict and China’s role in the South China Sea. The weekend was mainly punctuated by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng’s The Open Source Briefing 2 statement, "National reunification of the island of Taiwan and China is a historical process. It will not be stopped by anyone or any force. We will never let Taiwan go independent."1 China has continued to be staunch on reunification, particularly in response to the US-Japan joint statement on Saturday that mentioned Taiwan for the first time in 50 years. The response also ignited a Chinese “large-scale aerial bombardment exercise” over 9 hours this weekend. According to CCTV, the bombing drill took place over Qinghai Province and included several dozen H-6K strategic bombers to execute electric countermeasures with air-defense missile units, and then dropped free-fall aerial bombs in a designated area.2 One thing to watch in the upcoming week, is that President Biden will soon approve a weapons sale to Taiwan. This is the arms deal to be signed under the Biden administration and would include 40 M109A6 "Paladin" self-propelled howitzers.3 His predecessor’s administration sanctioned 11 arms deals during his four years. It remains to be seen what other arms deals may be executed in the future under the Biden administration. This Friday, Taiwan began its largest annual military exercise, the 37th annual Han Kuang exercise, with computer-assisted war games from April 23-30th. Unofficially the exercise simulates a PLA attack on the Taiwanese mainland and its surrounding islands to repel a Chinese invasion for a full week.4 The most concerning will be the second phase, starting a couple of days in, 5 straight days of live drills in Taiwan’s urban environments and western beaches with large-scale anti-landing exercises and simulated defenses in tandem with the air force, army, navy, and marines. Philippines Author: Bang Tongco During the week, the interagency National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea (NTF-WPS) reported that additional naval assets would be deployed to the Manila-claimed WPS. The NTF disclosed that two interagency Area Task Forces (ATFs) were assigned to watch over the Philippines’ maritime interests in the WPS, Scarborough Shoal (Bajo de Masinloc), the northern Batanes region, and the Philippine Rise. The Open Source Briefing 3 The NTF-WPS on 21 April disclosed that more naval assets will be deployed through ATF West and ATF North in compliance to President Rodrigo Duterte’s instructions to ensure Philippine sovereignty and sovereign rights in the various maritime zones [1]. The NTF revealed that ATF-West was in-charge over the WPS and Manila’s Kalayaan Island Group (KIG) while ATF-North’s AOR included Scarborough Shoal, the northern Batanes region--facing the Bashi Channel--and the Philippine Rise. The NTF detailed that ATF-West operates nine detachments in the Municipality of Kalayaan--whose seat of power is in the Pag-asa (Thitu) Islands--and also covers the oil-rich Recto (Reed) Bank and the Malampaya Gas-to-Power Project. ATF-N, for its part, maintains stations and other facilities in the Batanes region including Mavulis Island [2]. The NTF updated that four Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessels and one aircraft, five Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) ships, and the Philippine National Police Maritime Group were being sent to augment the forces under the ATFs [3]. In addition, the NTF outlined the various programs undertaken by different member-agencies such as the construction of five lighthouses and installation of solar panels and desalination facilities on detachments in the KIG (out of nine features for the Philippines), a US$22M Sheltered Port and Beaching Ramp as well as the rehabilitation of Rancudo in the Pag-asa Islands. The NTF added that the BFAR, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, and local government units were maintaining Fishery Management Areas and is considering establishing a marine protected landscape in the WPS. In a separate forum, the NTF-WPS provided further details on the assets available to ATF-N and W [4]. ATF-West has 11 vessels and five aircraft while ATF-N is assigned eight vessels and six aircraft, some of which are the FA-50PH light fighters of the Philippine Air Force [5]. The NTF clarified that the Western Command and Northern Luzon Command--similar to the US Combatant Commands--are the heads of ATF-W and N, respectively. The Philippines’ National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) on 16 April issued navigational warnings in relation to the PCG’s Task Force Pagsasanay (Training) in the WPS [6]. The Warning included the Pag-asa Islands, Likas (West York) Island, “north of” Mischief (Panganiban) Reef, Whitsun (Julian Felipe) Reef, and Scarborough Shoal. The NAMRIA Warning did not include any dates, only four sets of coordinates per area identified. The Open Source Briefing 4 The maritime and air assets under ATF-West, the image shows the brand new South Korean built BRP Jose Rizal and Antonio Luna. Screenshot from an online forum of the NTF-WPS. Contributor’s Analysis The NTF’s repeated Press Releases continue unabated, shifting the once-secretive group to a more public stance. Interestingly, the Press Release gave no details of Chinese maritime militia vessels (CMMVs) in the WPS, specifically at Whitsun Reef, the Pag-asa Islands, and Scarborough Shoal. This may indicate that less CMMVs may have been detected at said locations or the NTF-WPS is taking a more muted approach toward such ships. Furthermore, no reports of People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and China Coast Guard ships were also included. Meanwhile, the additional deployment of PCG and BFAR assets could help address China’s use of CMMVs in the WPS and avoid a repeat of the 2012 Scarborough Standoff which saw the use of Philippine Navy ships in a maritime law enforcement role. However, it is not known how long the Philippines can sustain such a high number of assets in the WPS. Regardless, the combination of PN, PCG, and BFAR assets supported by military aircraft demonstrates a robust whole-of-government approach toward the WPS. Additionally, it is also not yet known if the repair of the Rancudo airstrip is underway or the construction of lighthouses in the other detachments are also being carried out. The Open Source Briefing 5 On the Task Force Pagsasanay’s (Training) possible area of exercises, the NAMRIA Warning clearly states an area north of the Chinese-occupied Mischief Reef where a Filipino reporter’s boat was chased away by two PLAN Type 022 missile craft in early April [7]. The exercises appear to be a full voyage into the WPS to include the Pag-asa Islands, Whitsun Reef, and Scarborough Shoal, which could help increase maritime domain awareness, improve operational capabilities, and to “show the flag” in the disputed waterway.