South China Sea Intelligence Briefngs Weekly Briefing: April 25th, 2021

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United States Author: Gaetano Scalise

Courtesy of USNI Fleet Tracker

For each week’s briefing, the U.S Navy’s strategically critical ships are tracked and their movements are analyzed. This week however, we report that the USS Reagan is still in Yokosuka Harbor and the USS Theodore Roosevelt was at sea, but its general whereabouts are unknown. Since there are no significant FONOPs, no other vessel updates are necessary. On the topic of exercises, earlier in the week, the U.S Air Force’s 909th Aerial Refueling Squadron and Pearl Harbor Hickam Air Force Base F22 Raptors held a joint training exercise to enhance operability. [1] A crucial show of support for the Taiwanese was hinted this week as Taiwan Press reported the alleged sale of Howitzers to assist in the defense of the island nation. It must be noted that we will continue to see more arms deals between the two nations as the U.S media has sounded the alarm on a “possible” attempted invasion of Taiwan within the next decade. [2] Analysis of past arms deals by military experts strongly suggests that the type

The Open Source Briefing 1 of arms provided must give Taiwan a cost-effective option in which opposing forces are halted before they reach land. Suggestions of anti-ship missiles being such a tool was mentioned in the past, at the present moment, the arms provided will look to be similar to howitzers and M-1 Abrams. Continuing discussion of Taiwan, in the past week it was reported that Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga stated that Japan would not be getting involved militarily if Taiwan were to come under attack. [3] This statement makes sense as the Japanese Constitution still is written so that the Self Defense Force may only respond if the nation comes under attack. With this in consideration, Japan would still provide logistical support in the event that the U.S becomes involved. With further analysis, one can conclude that Japanese military officials know that even with logistical support, an attack to disrupt any assistance to U.S forces would inevitably allow Japan to respond appropriately. With the extent of American Naval and Air support on the main island of Honshu, it is probable that opposing forces would have no qualms about targeting those installations if it means a significant shift in the conflict. Concern of restricted power based on Japan’s Constitution can be considered overblown, and can be hinted by Japan’s hosting of an upcoming war game with the U.S and France [4]

China and Taiwan Author: Tad Unruh

(SCMP) In comparison to the previous weeks of April, this one has been relatively calm on the China-Taiwan cross-strait conflict and China’s role in the South China Sea. The weekend was mainly punctuated by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng’s

The Open Source Briefing 2 statement, "National reunification of the island of Taiwan and China is a historical process. It will not be stopped by anyone or any force. We will never let Taiwan go independent."1 China has continued to be staunch on reunification, particularly in response to the US-Japan joint statement on Saturday that mentioned Taiwan for the first time in 50 years. The response also ignited a Chinese “large-scale aerial bombardment exercise” over 9 hours this weekend. According to CCTV, the bombing drill took place over Qinghai Province and included several dozen H-6K strategic bombers to execute electric countermeasures with air-defense missile units, and then dropped free-fall aerial bombs in a designated area.2

One thing to watch in the upcoming week, is that President Biden will soon approve a weapons sale to Taiwan. This is the arms deal to be signed under the Biden administration and would include 40 M109A6 "Paladin" self-propelled howitzers.3 His predecessor’s administration sanctioned 11 arms deals during his four years. It remains to be seen what other arms deals may be executed in the future under the Biden administration.

This Friday, Taiwan began its largest annual military exercise, the 37th annual Han Kuang exercise, with computer-assisted war games from April 23-30th. Unofficially the exercise simulates a PLA attack on the Taiwanese mainland and its surrounding islands to repel a Chinese invasion for a full week.4 The most concerning will be the second phase, starting a couple of days in, 5 straight days of live drills in Taiwan’s urban environments and western beaches with large-scale anti-landing exercises and simulated defenses in tandem with the air force, army, navy, and marines.

Philippines Author: Bang Tongco

During the week, the interagency National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea (NTF-WPS) reported that additional naval assets would be deployed to the Manila-claimed WPS. The NTF disclosed that two interagency Area Task Forces (ATFs) were assigned to watch over the Philippines’ maritime interests in the WPS, Scarborough Shoal (Bajo de Masinloc), the northern Batanes region, and the Philippine Rise.

The Open Source Briefing 3 The NTF-WPS on 21 April disclosed that more naval assets will be deployed through ATF West and ATF North in compliance to President Rodrigo Duterte’s instructions to ensure Philippine sovereignty and sovereign rights in the various maritime zones [1]. The NTF revealed that ATF-West was in-charge over the WPS and Manila’s Kalayaan Island Group (KIG) while ATF-North’s AOR included Scarborough Shoal, the northern Batanes region--facing the Bashi Channel--and the Philippine Rise. The NTF detailed that ATF-West operates nine detachments in the Municipality of Kalayaan--whose seat of power is in the Pag-asa (Thitu) Islands--and also covers the oil-rich Recto (Reed) Bank and the Malampaya Gas-to-Power Project. ATF-N, for its part, maintains stations and other facilities in the Batanes region including Mavulis Island [2]. The NTF updated that four Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessels and one aircraft, five Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) ships, and the Philippine National Police Maritime Group were being sent to augment the forces under the ATFs [3]. In addition, the NTF outlined the various programs undertaken by different member-agencies such as the construction of five lighthouses and installation of solar panels and desalination facilities on detachments in the KIG (out of nine features for the Philippines), a US$22M Sheltered Port and Beaching Ramp as well as the rehabilitation of Rancudo in the Pag-asa Islands. The NTF added that the BFAR, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, and local government units were maintaining Fishery Management Areas and is considering establishing a marine protected landscape in the WPS.

In a separate forum, the NTF-WPS provided further details on the assets available to ATF-N and W [4]. ATF-West has 11 vessels and five aircraft while ATF-N is assigned eight vessels and six aircraft, some of which are the FA-50PH light fighters of the Philippine Air Force [5]. The NTF clarified that the Western Command and Northern Luzon Command--similar to the US Combatant Commands--are the heads of ATF-W and N, respectively.

The Philippines’ National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) on 16 April issued navigational warnings in relation to the PCG’s Task Force Pagsasanay (Training) in the WPS [6]. The Warning included the Pag-asa Islands, Likas (West York) Island, “north of” Mischief (Panganiban) Reef, Whitsun (Julian Felipe) Reef, and Scarborough Shoal. The NAMRIA Warning did not include any dates, only four sets of coordinates per area identified.

The Open Source Briefing 4 The maritime and air assets under ATF-West, the image shows the brand new South Korean built BRP Jose Rizal and Antonio Luna. Screenshot from an online forum of the NTF-WPS.

Contributor’s Analysis

The NTF’s repeated Press Releases continue unabated, shifting the once-secretive group to a more public stance. Interestingly, the Press Release gave no details of Chinese maritime militia vessels (CMMVs) in the WPS, specifically at Whitsun Reef, the Pag-asa Islands, and Scarborough Shoal. This may indicate that less CMMVs may have been detected at said locations or the NTF-WPS is taking a more muted approach toward such ships. Furthermore, no reports of People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and China Coast Guard ships were also included. Meanwhile, the additional deployment of PCG and BFAR assets could help address China’s use of CMMVs in the WPS and avoid a repeat of the 2012 Scarborough Standoff which saw the use of Philippine Navy ships in a maritime law enforcement role. However, it is not known how long the Philippines can sustain such a high number of assets in the WPS. Regardless, the combination of PN, PCG, and BFAR assets supported by military aircraft demonstrates a robust whole-of-government approach toward the WPS. Additionally, it is also not yet known if the repair of the Rancudo airstrip is underway or the construction of lighthouses in the other detachments are also being carried out.

The Open Source Briefing 5 On the Task Force Pagsasanay’s (Training) possible area of exercises, the NAMRIA Warning clearly states an area north of the Chinese-occupied Mischief Reef where a Filipino reporter’s boat was chased away by two PLAN Type 022 missile craft in early April [7]. The exercises appear to be a full voyage into the WPS to include the Pag-asa Islands, Whitsun Reef, and Scarborough Shoal, which could help increase maritime domain awareness, improve operational capabilities, and to “show the flag” in the disputed waterway.

Vietnam Author: Giulia Croce Butler

Earlier this week, the JS AKEBONO - the eighth ship of Murasame-class destroyers serving with Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) - visited Haiphong, Vietnam.[1] The visit comes after the Vietnamese Navy and the JMSDF have worked hard together to achieve a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” especially given China’s recent aggressions. These aggressions were also at the center of attention during the seventh defense strategy dialogue that took place on Friday, April 23, between China and Vietnam.[2] The meeting was held in Dongxing city, Guangxi Province, and was co-chaired by Vietnamese Deputy Minister of National Defense Sen. Lt. Gen Hoang Xuan Chien and the Deputy Chief of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission of China Lt. Gen Shao Yuanming. Deputy Minister of National Defense Sen. Lt. Gen. Vinh was also part of the Vietnamese delegation.

Photo: VietnamNet

The Open Source Briefing 6 Topics of discussion included the regional tension, COVID-19 pandemic, natural disasters and the environment, and threats to peace and stability of Asia-Pacific nations. Chien emphasized the importance of the East Sea in terms of economic, defense, security, and strategic geographic value, and called for China’s cooperation in achieving peace and security in an effort to reinforce the need for stability of the region. Once again, he held that Vietnam’s goal is to achieve such stability through the enforcement of the UNCLOS, the implementation of the Declaration of the Conduct of Parties (DOC), and the development of the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea. Chien stressed that deescalating disagreements and avoiding the threat of or use of force should be the only way forward. Furthermore, both parties agreed to continue the implementation of signed agreements, including the defense cooperation statement between the two defense ministries - valid until 2025 - and the three legal statements on border security and illegal immigration. Both parties indeed recognize the significance of their cooperative efforts, although Vietnamese officials remain partially skeptical of China’s moves at sea.

In the meantime, Vietnamese PM Chinh landed in Jakarta to address another pressing matter: the special ASEAN summit taking place on April 24th on the Myanmar post-coup crisis.[3] With this meeting, ASEAN wishes to settle chaos by ending violence and initiate a framework that will hopefully involve relevant stakeholders outside the military regime in Myanmar. [4]

Noteworthy this week was also the participation of Vietnamese President Phuc at the UNSC debate titled 'Enhancing cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organisations in enhancing confidence-building and dialogue in conflict prevention and resolution'.[5] The meeting took place last Monday, April 19th, both virtually and in-person. President Phuc stated that today’s world is still “riddled with challenges” despite the aspirations of countries to achieve peace and cooperation.

The Open Source Briefing 7 Photo: VNA/VNS

President Phuc also praised ASEAN’s effort to work with China on the development of the COC that aims at preserving maritime security in the South China Sea’s waters. Additionally, he submitted three proposals during the debate. The first concerns the sharing of knowledge and the coordination of joint efforts between the UN and regional organizations. The second suggests the promotion of multilateralism and the regard of the UN Charter and international law as the most critical and concrete foundation upon which trust is built and dialogues can take place. Along these lines, Phuc suggested that the international community ought to achieve the goals in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The third proposal aimed at establishing frameworks for warning mechanisms on volatile issues between the UNSC and regional organizations. He added “With the motto 'Partnership for a sustainable peace', Vietnam will do its best to bring cooperation between the United Nations and regional organisations, including ASEAN, to new heights.”[6] Phuc further presided over the adoption of a Declaration of the Chairman of the Security Council, which is founded on the same principles of closer collaboration among organizations and suggested that the UN Secretary-General proposed solutions that would enhance trust and spark difficult conversations on pressing regional challenges.

The Open Source Briefing 8 Japan Author: Takshak Pai

Due to unforeseen circumstances, the Japan section will not be included this week.

Aircraft Monitoring

PLAAF Y-8 04/19 - Southwest Taiwan [2]

Shaanxi Y-8 Surveillance Aircraft: Has many variants that include anti- submarine warfare, ISR, cargo, troop transport.

P-8 Poseidon 04/22 - South China Sea [10] 04/23 - South China Sea [12]

Anti-submarine and anti-surface maritime/wartime patrol aircraft. Its sensitive instruments can pick up enemy ground and ship movement in addition to also carrying armaments.

EP-3E Aries II 04/23 - South China Sea [14]

“”Land-based Multi-Intelligence reconnaissance aircraft based on the P-3 Orion airframe. The EP-3E ARIES II was recently

The Open Source Briefing 9 upgraded from SIGINT to Multi-Intelligence and is the Navy's only land-based reconnaissance aircraft”

B-52H 04/24 - South China Sea [16]

“capable of flying at high subsonic speeds at altitudes of up to 50,000 feet (15,166.6 meters). It can carry nuclear or precision guided conventional ordnance with worldwide precision navigation capability”

E-3B Sentry 04/19 - Okinawa Coast [3]

“Airborne warning and control system, or AWACS, aircraft with an integrated command and control battle management, or C2BM, surveillance, target detection, and tracking platform. The aircraft provides an accurate, real-time picture of the battlespace to the Joint Air Operations Center”

The Open Source Briefing 10 AC-130J GhostRider 04/23 - East China Sea [11] 04/24 - Philippines [15]

“Close air support missions include troops in contact, convoy escort and point air defense. Air interdiction missions are conducted against pre-planned targets or targets of opportunity and include strike coordination and reconnaissance and overwatch mission sets.”

KC-135 04/23 - South China Sea [13]

“Provides aerial refueling support to Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps and allied nation aircraft. The KC-135 is also capable of transporting litter and ambulatory patients using patient support pallets during aeromedical evacuations.”

RC-135 04/20 - East China Sea [5] 04/20 - South China Sea [6] 04/21 - East China Sea [8] 04/21 - South China Sea [9]

“The RC-135V/W Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft supports theater and national level consumers with near real time on-scene intelligence collection, analysis and dissemination capabilities.”

The Open Source Briefing 11 Miscellaneous Cluster ( Chinese Aircraft) 04/18 - Southwest Taiwan - 3 Aircraft ( Y-8 ASW*2 and Y-8 RECCE) [1]

04/20 - Southwest Taiwan (9 PLA aircraft (J-16*5, Y-8 EW, Y-8 RECCE and Y-8 ASW*2 ) [4]

04/21 - Southwest Taiwan (Y-8 RECCE and Y-8 EW) [7]

Citations

United States ______[1] https://twitter.com/KadenaAirBase_J/status/1379661616782831617?s=20 [2] Han, Zhang, and Liu Xuanzun. “1st Reported Taiwan Arms Sales under Biden Admin Come Early, ‘Further Strain Situation’ - Global Times.” Www.globaltimes.cn, 20 Apr. 2021, www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1221502.shtml. [3] ---. “Japan’s Troops Won’t Get Involved If China Invades Taiwan, PM Says.” South China Morning Post, 21 Apr. 2021, www.scmp.com. Accessed 26 Apr. 2021.

[4]“Japan to Host First Joint ‘War Games’ with US, France.” Www.aljazeera.com, 24 Apr. 2021, www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/24/japan-to-host-first-joint-war-games-with-us-france.

China and Taiwan ______1. Global Times. (2021, April 18). China will never allow island of Taiwan to go INDEPENDENT: Vice foreign minister. Retrieved April 23, 2021, from https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1221328.shtml 2. Zhen, L. (2021, April 20). China conducts aerial BOMBING drill AFTER Us-japan statement on Taiwan. Retrieved April 23, 2021, from https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3130167/china-conducts-aerial-bombing-drill-aft er-us-japan-statement

The Open Source Briefing 12 3. Feng, J. (2021, April 20). Joe Biden set to APPROVE first arms sale to taiwan amid China threat. Retrieved April 24, 2021, from https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-set-approve-first-arms-sale-taiwan-amid-china-threat-158493 1 4. Feng, J. (2021, April 20). Taiwan to Begin 24/7 simulation of Chinese invasion. Retrieved April 24, 2021, from https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-begin-24-7-simulation-chinese-invasion-1584984

Philippines ______[1] PTV Staff. “Statement of the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea on the deployment of more government assets in West Philippine Sea”. 21 April 2021. PTV News. https://ptvnews.ph/statement-of-the-national-task-force-for-the-west-philippine-sea-on-the-deployment-of-mo re-government-assets-in-west-philippine-sea1/ Accessed 21 Apr 2021.

[2] Martin, Victor. “AFP: Mavulis Island secure from foreign poachers”. PhilStar. 31 May 2019. https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2019/05/31/1922414/afp-mavulis-island-secure-foreign-poachers Accessed 21 Apr 2021.

[3] ABS-CBN Staff. “PH sends more patrol vessels to West Philippine Sea as China ships linger”. ABS-CBN News. 21 April 2021. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/21/21/ph-sends-more-patrol-vessels-to-west-philippine-sea-as-china-ships- linger Accessed 21 Apr 2021.

[4] Mangosing, Frances. “PH military pouring naval, air assets near site of Chinese incursions in WPS”. Inquirer.net. 21 April 2021. https://globalnation.inquirer.net/195377/ph-military-pouring-naval-air-assets-near-site-of-chinese-incursions-i n-wps Accessed 21 Apr 2021.

[5] Villanueva, Marichu. 2021. “Kapihan sa Manila Bay - April 21, 2021”. Facebook, April 21, 2021, 0949H. https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=134535622015465&ref=watch_permalink Accessed 21 Apr 2021.

[6] Valenzuela, Antonio. “NAVPHIL 058/21 - West Philippine Sea - Maritime Exercises”. NAMRIA. 16 April 2021. http://namria.gov.ph/jdownloads/Navigational_Warning/NAVPHIL_058_2021.pdf Accessed 21 Apr 2021.

The Open Source Briefing 13 [7] GMA Staff. “DND orders probe into alleged China harassment of Philippine TV crew in West Philippine Sea”. GMA News Online. 9 April 2021.

Vietnam

______

[1] https://twitter.com/jmsdf_pao_eng/status/1385149249579458560?s=20 [2] “Vietnam, China hold seventh defence strategy dialogue” Vietnam Net Global, Apr 23, 2021 https://vietnamnet.vn/en/politics/vietnam-china-hold-seventh-defence-strategy-dialogue-730109.htm l [3] https://twitter.com/Tan_Hui_Yee/status/1385483624493903873 [4] “ASEAN summit to address Myanmar's post-coup crisis” CNA, Apr 23, 2021 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/asean-summit-address-myanmar-post-coup-crisis-14 678290 [5] “Vietnam calls for enhancing trust and dialogue to prevent and solve conflicts” Vietnam News, Apr 20, 2021 https://vietnamnews.vn/politics-laws/928691/viet-nam-calls-for-enhancing-trust-and-dialogue-to-prev ent-and-solve-conflicts.html [6] Ibid.

Japan ______

Aircraft Monitoring ______[1] https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1383776969133727756?s=20 [2] https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1384101733668851720 [3] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1384330838586822658?s=20 [4] https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1384498377266581505?s=20 [5] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1384381484480581632?s=20 [6] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1384693798589145090?s=20 [7] https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1384828522183544836

The Open Source Briefing 14 [8] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1385068694213103621?s=20 [9] https://twitter.com/wipljw/status/1384791876797149184 [10] https://twitter.com/ameliairheart/status/1385408949030109184 [11] https://twitter.com/CCCDSLR/status/1385776873225949190 [12] https://twitter.com/ameliairheart/status/1385776387433238529 [13] https://twitter.com/ameliairheart/status/1385776387433238529 [14] https://twitter.com/ameliairheart/status/1385754464565567490 [15] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1386138046974857217?s=20 [16] @Golf9 04/24

The Open Source Briefing 15