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Weekly Briefing: January 3Rd 2021

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Weekly Briefing: January 3Rd 2021 South China Sea Intelligence Briefngs Weekly Briefing: January 3rd At The Open Source Briefing, we remain committed to providing the public with ongoing developments around the globe. United States Author: Kevin O’Connell Courtesy of USNI News The past two weeks have been relatively active for United States INDO-PACOM with two freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs), a two-ship transit of the Taiwan Strait, and a Bomber Task Force (BTF) mission over the South China Sea in the vicinity of Paracel and Spratly Islands. This is in addition to regular maritime surveillance, signals intelligence (SIGINT), and transport flights, along with the routine comings and goings of American ships from bases in Japan. While there have been few theater or strategic level changes for the United States in the Indo-Pacific, these operational developments indicate a continued high operational tempo for U.S. forces. Further, these operations demonstrate America’s considerable forward deployed capabilities even in the current absence of at sea, fixed-wing aviation assets in the Western Pacific. The Open Source Briefing 1 The first naval operations worthy of emphasis were the two freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) conducted by the USS John S. McCain (DDG-56) in the South China Sea. The first of these FONOPs took place on December 21 and was in the vicinity of the Spratly Islands, which are claimed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam.[1] While a spokesperson for China’s Southern Theater Command has released a statement indicating that the McCain was ‘expelled’ by Chinese naval and aerial forces, the United States Navy denies that any expulsion occurred and reports that the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer conducted the FONOP and then continued on to conduct normal operations.[2] The USS John S. McCain went on to conduct a second FONOP on December 24 in the vicinity of the Con Dao Islands, which are claimed by Vietnam. A statement by the U.S. 7th Fleet indicated that the McCain conducted normal operations within Vietnam’s claimed territorial seas “to challenge excessive maritime claims and preserve access and navigational freedoms consistent with international law.”[3] This FONOP again demonstrates the willingness of the United States to challenge excessive maritime territorial claims regardless of the offending party. The USS John S. McCain stayed busy and next participated in a transit of the Taiwan Strait alongside USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG-54) on December 31 local time. A statement from the U.S. 7th Fleet indicated that the two Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers made the transit in accordance with international law and demonstrates that “the United States military will continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows.”[4] This marks the second transit of the Taiwan strait by Destroyer Squadron 15 (DESRON 15) ships in the past month following the December 18 transit by USS Mustin (DDG-89). The Open Source Briefing 2 Courtesy of @AircraftSpots/Twitter Another noteworthy operation for INDO-PACOM was the December 28 Bomber Task Force (BTF) mission over the South China Sea. As part of the mission, two B1-B Lancer bombers, callsigns MINT11 and MINT12, flew from Andersen AFB, Guam, to airspace in the vicinity of the Paracel and Spratly Islands via the Luzon Strait. The bombers then returned to Andersen AFB by flying south of the Philippines and via airspace in the vicinity of Palau.[5] This mission, along with the South China Sea FONOPs, and the two ship transit of the Taiwan Strait, likely represent a deterrent in the run-up to three 10-day Chinese military exercises that began on December 29.[6] While the FONOPs, Taiwan Strait transit, and BTF missions were the most significant U.S. military operations tied to the South China Sea in the last two weeks, they were far from the only ones. While this report details aircraft tracking, later on, it is worth mentioning that there appeared to be an uptick in flights by maritime patrol and signals intelligence aircraft between December 22 and December 28. During this seven-day period, there were at least 14 flights by RC-135W Rivet Joint, KC-135R & T Stratotanker, E-6B Mercury, P-8A Poseidon, EP-3E ARIES II, and MQ-4C Triton aircraft.[7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] Paired with the naval operations and BTF The Open Source Briefing 3 missions, this makes for an exceptionally busy week for the INDO-PACOM immediately before large scale Chinese exercises. Additional Naval Tracking: December 23 - USNS Loyal (T-AGOS-22) victorious-class ocean surveillance vessel arrives in Yokohama[17] December 30 - USS Benfold (DDG-65) arrives in Yokosuka[18] December 31 - USNS Victorious (T-AGOS-19) departs Okinawa[19] - USNS Able (T-AGOS-20) departs Yokohama[20] January 1 - USS Benfold (DDG-65) leaves Yokosuka[21] January 3 - USNS John Ericsson(T-AO-194) is spotted underway west of the Philippines in the South China Sea[22] China Author: Tad Unruh The year 2020, with a worldwide pandemic, saw China pushing its adversaries in the South China Sea and across the Taiwan Strait, more than any year in recent memory. They were met with more political wrangling than they bargained for as well. In 2020 the Trump administration, in typical unprecedented terms, called Chinese claims in the South China Sea illegal, followed in agreement from the UK, Australia, France, and Germany.[1] It saw highs of Chinese Coast Guard sightings in the SCS, ECS, and in the pacific. Chinese aircraft intruded into Taiwanese airspace at a rate not seen since 1996, that from Jan. 1st to Nov. 30th, the Chinese military breached the ADIZ on 91 days, and concurrently the highest frequency of Chinese military missions around Taiwan at over 20 plus.[2] Faced with higher tensions in the region, China had to keep its South Sea fleet out for an extra four months this year.[3] As the readers may have noticed, we at the Open-Source Briefing took the week of Christmas to spend time with our families, but that didn’t mean we weren’t still watching. Below is a bulleted list of the happenings of that week and a bit of context. The Open Source Briefing 4 On December 23rd, a war of words erupted over the USS John McCain entering the Spratly Islands waters. China called it a serious violation of sovereignty and claimed that its warships chased out the destroyer, to which the US rebuked this claim.[4] The PLA is transitioning its helicopters from supporting roles to the main force operations in amphibious landing operations, as they executed cross-sea assault exercises on December 22nd.[5] Courtesy of @Intelfeedia/Twitter The PLA Navy’s domestically built Shandong Aircraft carrier sailed through the Taiwan Strait on December 20th on its way out to conduct year-end exercises.[6] On the 29th, the carrier group conducted night exercises that will continue until January 7th.[7] China is planning on several military advancements in the new year, including a 3rd new aircraft carrier and new pilots and new fighter jets based on those carriers aiming to hit their 2027 goal for military modernization.[8] According to satellite photos, China has also outfitted a new dry dock at its Yulin base big enough to accommodate these new carriers.[9] The Open Source Briefing 5 China’s Type 75 new amphibious assault ship began its first sea trial on December 22nd.[10] Courtesy of HI Sutton Courtesy of @JATOSINT/Twitter Indonesian Fishermen uncovered a Chinese “Sea Wing” UUV spy drone off the coast of Selayar Island in South Sulawesi on December 20th.[11] According to HI Sutton, these Sea Wings conduct scientific research, for acoustic detections, and comprehensive exploration of deep-sea environments.[12] The Open Source Briefing 6 Courtesy of SCMP Lastly, the Chinese PLAAF has landed its largest aircraft, the Y-20 transport, on Fiery Cross Reef on Christmas day, December 25th.[13] Experts previously posited that the reef couldn’t hold the weight of large aircraft. The mission of the Y-20 is not known at this point. Taiwan Author: Tad Unruh Taiwan’s 2020 was marked with concerted highs and lows. The highs included being a country with a model response to the coronavirus, and the lows were the constant and torrid challenges by the Chinese military to Cross-Strait relations. The Open Source Briefing 7 Courtesy of SCMP In her New Years' day speech, President Tsai Ing-Wen began the year calling for talks with Beijing to work together on cross-strait stability.[1] There is a possibility of reset of relations with the incoming Biden administration, and President Tsai is hoping to begin on the right foot. While on the one hand, Taiwan is calling for peace and dialogue, it is also wary of China’s menacing posturing. On December 23rd the Taiwanese military tracked a Chinese warship traveling near 38 nautical miles from Orchid island on Taiwan's southeast coast. The local authorities warned Taiwanese locals and fisheries to avoid the area from Dec. 24-29 because the area was designated for missile tests.[2] China has kept up its consistent pace of intrusions from a military perspective, but also on the economic front. The Taiwanese coast guard spent over NT$600 million chasing over 3,969 illegal Chinese sand dredgers from January-November in 2020.[3] The Open Source Briefing 8 Lastly, what is a more representative way to ring in the new year in Cross-Strait relations than a Freedom of Navigation Operation on New Year’s Eve. Two guided-missile destroyers, the USS John McCain and USS Curtis Wilbur, conducted an FNOV through the Taiwan Strait, with an immediate rebuke from China.
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