South China Sea Intelligence Briefngs Weekly Briefing: January 3rd

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United States Author: Kevin O’Connell

Courtesy of USNI News

The past two weeks have been relatively active for United States INDO-PACOM with two freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs), a two-ship transit of the Taiwan Strait, and a Bomber Task Force (BTF) mission over the South China Sea in the vicinity of Paracel and Spratly Islands. This is in addition to regular maritime surveillance, signals intelligence (SIGINT), and transport flights, along with the routine comings and goings of American ships from bases in Japan. While there have been few theater or strategic level changes for the United States in the Indo-Pacific, these operational developments indicate a continued high operational tempo for U.S. forces. Further, these operations demonstrate America’s considerable forward deployed capabilities even in the current absence of at sea, fixed-wing aviation assets in the Western Pacific.

The Open Source Briefing 1 The first naval operations worthy of emphasis were the two freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) conducted by the USS John S. McCain (DDG-56) in the South China Sea. The first of these FONOPs took place on December 21 and was in the vicinity of the Spratly Islands, which are claimed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam.[1] While a spokesperson for China’s Southern Theater Command has released a statement indicating that the McCain was ‘expelled’ by Chinese naval and aerial forces, the denies that any expulsion occurred and reports that the Arleigh Burke-class conducted the FONOP and then continued on to conduct normal operations.[2]

The USS John S. McCain went on to conduct a second FONOP on December 24 in the vicinity of the Con Dao Islands, which are claimed by Vietnam. A statement by the U.S. 7th Fleet indicated that the McCain conducted normal operations within Vietnam’s claimed territorial seas “to challenge excessive maritime claims and preserve access and navigational freedoms consistent with international law.”[3] This FONOP again demonstrates the willingness of the United States to challenge excessive maritime territorial claims regardless of the offending party.

The USS John S. McCain stayed busy and next participated in a transit of the Taiwan Strait alongside USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG-54) on December 31 local time. A statement from the U.S. 7th Fleet indicated that the two Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile made the transit in accordance with international law and demonstrates that “the United States military will continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows.”[4] This marks the second transit of the Taiwan strait by Destroyer Squadron 15 (DESRON 15) ships in the past month following the December 18 transit by USS Mustin (DDG-89).

The Open Source Briefing 2 Courtesy of @AircraftSpots/Twitter

Another noteworthy operation for INDO-PACOM was the December 28 Bomber Task Force (BTF) mission over the South China Sea. As part of the mission, two B1-B Lancer bombers, callsigns MINT11 and MINT12, flew from Andersen AFB, , to airspace in the vicinity of the Paracel and Spratly Islands via the Luzon Strait. The bombers then returned to Andersen AFB by flying south of the and via airspace in the vicinity of .[5] This mission, along with the South China Sea FONOPs, and the two ship transit of the Taiwan Strait, likely represent a deterrent in the run-up to three 10-day Chinese military exercises that began on December 29.[6]

While the FONOPs, Taiwan Strait transit, and BTF missions were the most significant U.S. military operations tied to the South China Sea in the last two weeks, they were far from the only ones. While this report details aircraft tracking, later on, it is worth mentioning that there appeared to be an uptick in flights by maritime patrol and signals intelligence aircraft between December 22 and December 28. During this seven-day period, there were at least 14 flights by RC-135W Rivet Joint, KC-135R & T Stratotanker, E-6B Mercury, P-8A Poseidon, EP-3E ARIES II, and MQ-4C Triton aircraft.[7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] Paired with the naval operations and BTF

The Open Source Briefing 3 missions, this makes for an exceptionally busy week for the INDO-PACOM immediately before large scale Chinese exercises.

Additional Naval Tracking: December 23 - USNS Loyal (T-AGOS-22) victorious-class ocean surveillance vessel arrives in Yokohama[17] December 30 - USS Benfold (DDG-65) arrives in Yokosuka[18] December 31 - USNS Victorious (T-AGOS-19) departs Okinawa[19] - USNS Able (T-AGOS-20) departs Yokohama[20] January 1 - USS Benfold (DDG-65) leaves Yokosuka[21] January 3 - USNS John Ericsson(T-AO-194) is spotted underway west of the Philippines in the South China Sea[22]

China Author: Tad Unruh The year 2020, with a worldwide pandemic, saw China pushing its adversaries in the South China Sea and across the Taiwan Strait, more than any year in recent memory. They were met with more political wrangling than they bargained for as well. In 2020 the Trump administration, in typical unprecedented terms, called Chinese claims in the South China Sea illegal, followed in agreement from the UK, Australia, France, and Germany.[1] It saw highs of Chinese Coast Guard sightings in the SCS, ECS, and in the pacific. Chinese aircraft intruded into Taiwanese airspace at a rate not seen since 1996, that from Jan. 1st to Nov. 30th, the Chinese military breached the ADIZ on 91 days, and concurrently the highest frequency of Chinese military missions around Taiwan at over 20 plus.[2] Faced with higher tensions in the region, China had to keep its South Sea fleet out for an extra four months this year.[3]

As the readers may have noticed, we at the Open-Source Briefing took the week of Christmas to spend time with our families, but that didn’t mean we weren’t still watching. Below is a bulleted list of the happenings of that week and a bit of context.

The Open Source Briefing 4 On December 23rd, a war of words erupted over the USS John McCain entering the Spratly Islands waters. China called it a serious violation of sovereignty and claimed that its warships chased out the destroyer, to which the US rebuked this claim.[4]

The PLA is transitioning its helicopters from supporting roles to the main force operations in amphibious landing operations, as they executed cross-sea assault exercises on December 22nd.[5]

Courtesy of @Intelfeedia/Twitter

The PLA Navy’s domestically built Shandong sailed through the Taiwan Strait on December 20th on its way out to conduct year-end exercises.[6] On the 29th, the carrier group conducted night exercises that will continue until January 7th.[7]

China is planning on several military advancements in the new year, including a 3rd new aircraft carrier and new pilots and new fighter jets based on those carriers aiming to hit their 2027 goal for military modernization.[8] According to satellite photos, China has also outfitted a new dry dock at its Yulin base big enough to accommodate these new carriers.[9]

The Open Source Briefing 5 China’s Type 75 new amphibious assault ship began its first sea trial on December 22nd.[10]

Courtesy of HI Sutton

Courtesy of @JATOSINT/Twitter

Indonesian Fishermen uncovered a Chinese “Sea Wing” UUV spy drone off the coast of Selayar Island in South Sulawesi on December 20th.[11] According to HI Sutton, these Sea Wings conduct scientific research, for acoustic detections, and comprehensive exploration of deep-sea environments.[12]

The Open Source Briefing 6 Courtesy of SCMP

Lastly, the Chinese PLAAF has landed its largest aircraft, the Y-20 transport, on Fiery Cross Reef on Christmas day, December 25th.[13] Experts previously posited that the reef couldn’t hold the weight of large aircraft. The mission of the Y-20 is not known at this point.

Taiwan Author: Tad Unruh Taiwan’s 2020 was marked with concerted highs and lows. The highs included being a country with a model response to the coronavirus, and the lows were the constant and torrid challenges by the Chinese military to Cross-Strait relations.

The Open Source Briefing 7 Courtesy of SCMP

In her New Years' day speech, President Tsai Ing-Wen began the year calling for talks with Beijing to work together on cross-strait stability.[1] There is a possibility of reset of relations with the incoming Biden administration, and President Tsai is hoping to begin on the right foot.

While on the one hand, Taiwan is calling for peace and dialogue, it is also wary of China’s menacing posturing. On December 23rd the Taiwanese military tracked a Chinese warship traveling near 38 nautical miles from Orchid island on Taiwan's southeast coast. The local authorities warned Taiwanese locals and fisheries to avoid the area from Dec. 24-29 because the area was designated for missile tests.[2]

China has kept up its consistent pace of intrusions from a military perspective, but also on the economic front. The Taiwanese coast guard spent over NT$600 million chasing over 3,969 illegal Chinese sand dredgers from January-November in 2020.[3]

The Open Source Briefing 8 Lastly, what is a more representative way to ring in the new year in Cross-Strait relations than a Freedom of Navigation Operation on New Year’s Eve. Two guided-missile destroyers, the USS John McCain and USS Curtis Wilbur, conducted an FNOV through the Taiwan Strait, with an immediate rebuke from China. [4] This is a rare two-ship FNOV, is the second this month, and is the 13th total this calendar year. It is seen to be a response to China’s 10-day exercises that are happening simultaneously.

Philippines Author: Bang Tongco During the week, new updates on the ’s (PN) South Korean-built Jose Rizal-class guided-missile and information on the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ (AFP) modernization programs were reported.

Philippine media outlets on 29 December remarked that the AFP’s modernization programs have slowed over the years despite big-ticket purchases such as new frigates, anti-submarine helicopters, and counterinsurgency aircraft [1]. The report cited Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana and Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin, Jr. who advised against President Rodrigo Duterte’s now-suspended cancellation of the US-Philippine Visiting Forces Agreement as this may affect the AFP’s purchase of American-made military systems. The report stated that despite the Philippine Air Force’s (PAF) acquisition of refurbished C-130H transports, frequent deliveries of medical supplies and relief goods due to combat COVID-19 and the numerous typhoons that hit the country reduced the PAF’s medium-lift fleet to just one functioning Hercules [2]. Lorenzana warned that the C-130s’ airframes were being stressed faster than expected because of these [1][2]. Additionally, the report warned that the AFP’s Horizon 2 Upgrade program from 2018-2021 is still lacking around US$3.8B, prompting Lorenzana to warn that some programs will be transferred to Horizon 3 (2023-2028) [1][3]. However, Lorenzana said that the AFP continues to work toward a credible defense capability in order to avoid being “bullied”, adding that Manila’s arms purchases are “defensive” in nature [1].

Philippine state media and the PN on 30 December reported that the delivery of anti-ship and anti-air missiles for the Jose Rizal-class frigates will begin in 2022 and 2021, respectively [4]. The PN stated that the South Korean-made sea-skimming SSM-700K (C-Star) anti-ship missile would be delivered by March 2022. Meanwhile, sales of Mistral-armed SIMBAD remote control units (RC) of said frigates are projected to be completed by October 2021. However, images of the BRP Jose Rizal show at

The Open Source Briefing 9 least one SIMBAD-RC already installed but it is not known if the system is armed with MISTRAL missiles. To recall, the Rizal took part in the US-led multinational RIMPAC drills in August and was deployed in the Philippine-claimed West Philippine Sea for drills in November [5][6].

Images showing the BRP Jose Rizal with a SIMBAD-RC. Images courtesy of MaxDefense Philippines Facebook page [14].

Contributor Analysis The Philippines continues to slowly develop a “Credible Minimum Deterrence” despite rapid developments of military forces in Southeast Asia. The AFP and Philippine National Police’s focus on internal security operations against communist terrorist groups and Daesh-inspired factions and operations to address persistent natural calamities continue to split Manila’s forces and defense budgets, resulting in a more inward-looking defense posture. Despite its recent efforts, the Philippines continues to lag behind its neighbors in terms of defense spending, allocating only .96-1.1% of its GDP in 2019 and 2020 compared to ASEAN countries’ average of 1.83% and the world average of 2.21% [7][8]. Another factor is the delay in procurement of advanced naval systems such as diesel-electric submarines and guided-missile frigates, the latter already moved to Horizon 3, and the former likely to be deferred as well [9]. Compared

The Open Source Briefing 10 to Myanmar--the poorest country in the ASEAN--which recently commissioned seven indigenously-built, 500-ton Stealth Fast Attack Craft and a Soviet-made Kilo-class conventional submarine at the end of 2020, the Philippines’ defense procurements are sluggish at best and unrealistic at worst [10][11]. However, the purchase of new defense assets is a step in the right direction and will likely be continued by a post-Duterte government in 2022 due to the increasing geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific. The updates on the Jose Rizal-class vessels indicate that the PN’s operationalization of the ships continues apace. However, a number of “new” naval platforms continue to lack air defense and some even basic surface-to-surface systems--usually listed as “fitted for but not with”. The two Tarlac-class Landing Helicopter Docks still lack their 76mm and 25mm cannons despite both vessels being commissioned in 2017 and originally designed for them [12]. The purchase of C-Star and Mistral missile systems, alongside the already deployed Israeli-made SPIKE missiles, provide the PN with the necessary experience to operate more advanced equipment as it continues to work toward achieving a “Minimum Credible Defense” posture, especially in the SCS. The US$38M SIMBAD-RCs are also the AFP’s first modern air defense system and may pave the way for similar purchases for other PN platforms like the Tarlac- and ex-US Coast Guard Hamilton-/Gregorio del Pilar . Significantly, the Mistral/SIMBAD acquisition appears to be on schedule despite the effects of COVID-19 [13].

Vietnam Author: Giulia Croce Butler These past few weeks have seen rising tensions in the South China Sea that include the U.S. and India. On December 22, the USS John S. McCain challenged Vietnam’s maritime claims in the Con Dao Islands while conducting a freedom-of-navigation operation. The 16-island archipelago is located 150 nautical miles south of Ho Chi Minh City. A 1983 State Department ruling declared that since the islands are located well beyond 50 nautical miles from mainland Vietnam, they could not be considered part of its territorial waters. [1] In fact, international law establishes that a nation’s maritime claims extend to 12 nautical miles from its coasts. Therefore, the U.S. aimed at confronting Vietnam’s control over the Con Dao Islands and carrying out operations to “preserve navigational freedoms consistent with international law.”

Only a week later, Vietnam and India conducted a two-day joint Passage Exercise (PassEx) in the South China Sea region. Soon after, China accused India of meddling with the disputed waters. The operation was meant to strengthen

The Open Source Briefing 11 Indian-Vietnamese ties and contain China’s dominating efforts in the area. The Indian navy explained that its INS Kiltan delivered Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) stores for the people of Central Vietnam affected by the recent floods. [2]

Photo Courtesy: Twitter/@indiannavy

The Indian ship arrived at the Nha Rhang port of Ho Chi Minh City on December 24 and delivered 15 tonnes of food supplies. Nonetheless, the ship did participate in training exercises with Vietnam on December 26 while on its way back to India. While receiving criticism from Beijing for its interference in the region, the Indian Navy declared that the sole purpose was to improve maritime operability and cooperation. India was also accused to be exploiting tensions in the South China Sea as a way to further pressure China regarding the military border stand-off in eastern Ladakh between Beijing and New Delhi that started last spring. [3]

It is important to note that the PassEx took place a week after PM Modi had a virtual meeting with Vietnamese counterpart Phuc where - after discussing the importance of maintaining security and non-militarization in the SCS - Modi formally offered to provide a high-speed . [4] This is only the first of 12 that India had pledged to hand over to Vietnam. The patrol boats fall under the $100 million line of

The Open Source Briefing 12 credit that New Delhi had extended to Hanoi. Liu Zongyi, Secretary General of the Center of China-South Asia Cooperation at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies published an article on the China Military online portal arguing that India has never ceased to look for an opportunity to counter China on the land boundary dispute, which is precisely why it is now enhancing its strategic cooperation with Vietnam.

Aircraft Monitoring Spotted: 12/22 - Taiwan - southwest AIDZ [1] 12/23 - Taiwan - southwest AIDZ [2] 12/24 - Taiwan - southwest AIDZ [3] 12/25 - Taiwan - southwest AIDZ [4] 12/26 - Taiwan - southwest AIDZ [5] Shaanxi Y-8 Surveillance Aircraft: Has many variants that include anti- submarine warfare, ISR, cargo, troop transport.

Spotted: 12/27 - East China Sea [6]

MQ-4C Triton: Supports ISR and signals intelligence operations. Northrop Gruman capabilities: “The aircraft can fly over 24 hours at a time, at altitudes higher than 10 miles, with an operational range of 8,200 nautical miles.”

Spotted: 12/29 - South China Sea [7] 12/31 - South China Sea [8]

U.S B-1B Lancer: Conventional bomber with intercontinental range and both a nuclear and conventional capability.

The Open Source Briefing 13 Spotted: 12/31 - South China Sea [9]

Anti-submarine and anti-surface maritime/wartime patrol aircraft. Its sensitive instruments can pick up enemy ground and ship movement in addition to also carrying armaments.

The Open Source Briefing 14 United States [1] https://twitter.com/US7thFleet/status/1341254556093538304 [2] Robson, Seth. “Navy Rejects China's Claim It 'Expelled' US Warship from Disputed South China Sea,” December 23, 2020. https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/navy-rejects-china-s-claim-it-expelled-us-warship-f rom-disputed-south-china-sea-1.656165. [3] Eckstein, Megan. “USS John S. McCain Conducts Second FONOP This Week, This Time Off Vietnamese Islands.” USNI News, December 25, 2020. https://news.usni.org/2020/12/25/uss-john-s-mccain-conducts-second-fonop-this-week-t his-time-off-vietnamese-islands. [4] Eckstein, Megan. “2 Japan-Based Destroyers Conduct Second Taiwan Strait Transit This Month.” USNI News, December 30, 2020. https://news.usni.org/2020/12/30/2-japan-based-destroyers-conduct-second-taiwan-strai t-transit-this-month. [5] https://twitter.com/AircraftSpots/status/1343835094390169601 [6] Huang, Kristin. “China Plans Intensive Round of Military Drills in End-of-Year Catch-Up.” South China Morning Post, December 31, 2020. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3115719/china-plans-intensive-round- military-drills-end-year-catch. [7] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1341537940061696001 [8] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1341945889645060101 [9] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1341586511897214977 [10] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1342126784737914889 [11] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1342300197142093826 [12] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1342604554156838914 [13] https://twitter.com/AircraftSpots/status/1343089662789763145 [14] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1343375366342246402 [15] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1343695677466042368 [16] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1343725438556889088 [17] https://twitter.com/WarshipCam/status/1341541264429334528 [18] https://twitter.com/WarshipCam/status/1344064141078765568 [19] https://twitter.com/n_morse9927/status/1344776027676041219 [20] https://twitter.com/WarshipCam/status/1344644210130100224 [21] https://twitter.com/WarshipCam/status/1345192148220731393

The Open Source Briefing 15 [22] https://twitter.com/n_morse9927/status/1345823717033652225

China [1] Who's Taking Sides on China's Maritime Claims? (2020, September 24). Retrieved January 03, 2021, from https://amti.csis.org/whos-taking-sides-on-chinas-maritime-claims/ [2] Yu, M., & Lin, K. (2021, January 03). 2020 saw most PLA intrusions into Taiwan's ADIZ since 1996: Report. Retrieved January 03, 2021, from https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202101020015 [3] Chan, M. (2020, December 26). China-US tensions keep PLA sailors at sea for an extra four months in 2020. Retrieved January 03, 2021, from https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3115328/china-us-tensions-keep-pla-s ailors-sea-extra-four-months-2020 [4] Feng, J. (2020, December 23). USS John S. McCain "expelled" from South China Sea, claims Chinese military. Retrieved January 03, 2021, from https://www.newsweek.com/uss-john-s-mccain-expelled-south-china-sea-claims-chines e-military-1556875 [5] Xuanzun, L. (2020, December 23). PLA Army helicopters switch role from support to main force in cross-sea operations. Retrieved January 03, 2021, from https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1210819.shtml [6] Xuanzun, L. (2020, December 21). Shandong aircraft carrier group enters S.China Sea for exercises via Taiwan Straits: PLA Navy. Retrieved January 03, 2021, from https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1210520.shtml [7] Xuanzun, L. (2020, December 29). Aircraft carrier Shandong conducts night exercises, builds up combat-readiness. Retrieved January 03, 2021, from https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202012/1211350.shtml [8] Xuanzun, L. (2020, December 30). From 3rd aircraft carrier to fighter jets: Weapons to expect in 2021. Retrieved January 03, 2021, from https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202012/1211451.shtml [9] Chan, M. (2020, December 21). PLA's South China Sea dry dock big enough for new aircraft carriers, analysts say. Retrieved January 03, 2021, from https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3114634/south-china-sea-plas-new-dr y-dock-hainan-big-enough-type-002 [10] Xuanzun, L. (2020, December 22). China's second Type 075 amphibious assault ship starts first sea trial: Reports. Retrieved January 03, 2021, from https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1210707.shtml

The Open Source Briefing 16 [11] Seidel, J. (2020, December 31). Sinister catch exposes China's underwater spies. Retrieved January 04, 2021, from https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/sinister-catch-exposes-chinas- underwater-spies-on-australias-doorstep/news-story/6e287a838871315584aaa57bbf44 3514 [12] Sutton, H. (2020, December 30). Chinese Sea Wing (Haiyi) ocean glider. Retrieved January 04, 2021, from http://www.hisutton.com/Chinese-Sea-Wing-Submarine-Drone.html [13] Huang, K. (2021, January 02). Why did China land its biggest warplane on Fiery Cross Reef? Retrieved January 04, 2021, from https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3116028/south-china-sea-why-did-pla- land-its-massive-y-20-warplane

Taiwan [1] Chung, L. (2021, January 01). The world is watching, Taiwan's Tsai Ing-wen tells China in talks offer. Retrieved January 04, 2021, from https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3116099/china-taiwan-tension-has- worlds-attention-and-no-longer-just [2] Strong, M. (2020, December 23). Chinese warship sails near area designated for planned Taiwanese missile tests: Taiwan News: 2020/12/23. Retrieved January 04, 2021, from https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4084979 [3] Strong, M. (2020, December 24). Taiwan Coast Guard counts cost of chasing Chinese sand dredgers: Taiwan News: 2020/12/23. Retrieved January 04, 2021, from https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4085304 [4] AP. (2020, December 31). China Accuses US of Show of Force with Taiwan Strait Passage. Retrieved January 04, 2021, from https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/12/31/china-accuses-us-of-show-of-force-taiw an-strait-passage.html

Philippines [1] Mangosing, Frances. “PH military trudges on long road to credible defense capacity”. Inquirer.net. 29 December 2020. https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1377113/ph-military-trudges-on-a-long-road-to-credible-def ense-capacity Accessed 3 Jan 2021. [2] Ibid. “Only 1 C-130 of PH Air Force being used for relief missions, says Senate defense committee chief”. Inquirer.net. 20 November 2020.

The Open Source Briefing 17 https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1363118/only-1-c-130-of-ph-air-force-being-used-for-relief- missions-says-senate-defense-committee-chief Accessed 3 Jan 2021. [3] Nepomuceno, Priam. “ acquisition plan moved to RAFPMP’s Horizon 3”. Philippine News Agency. 11 July 2020. https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1108665 Accessed 3 Jan 2021. [4] Ibid. “Delivery of primary weapons for Navy frigates set for 2021, 2022”. Philippines News Agency. 30 December 2020. https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1125958 Accessed 3 Jan 2021. [5] Bajo, Anna. “Navy’s BRP Jose Rizal departs for RIMPAC 2020”. GMA News. 29 July 2020. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/749037/navy-s-brp-jose-rizal-departs-f or-rimpac-2020/story/ Accessed 3 Jan 2021. [6] Western Command Armed Forces of the Philippines. WESCOM conducts GOPLAT Exercise 2020. 27 November 2020, 1125H. https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1830881397044013&id=26171287396088 1 Accessed 3 Jan 2021. [7] Presidential Communications Operations Office. “Virtual Press Conference of the NTF-WPS”. The Virtual Presser. 4 November 2020. https://web.facebook.com/pcoogov/videos/1004398410069496 Accessed 3 Jan 2021. [8] Mangosing, Frances. “Defense budget needs 2% of GDP to be at par with ASEAN -military”. Inquirer.net. 7 November 2019. https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1187019/defense-budget-needs-2-of-gdp-to-be-at-par-with- asean-military#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20Stockholm%20International,GDP%2 0on%20its%20armed%20forces. Accessed 3 Jan 2021. [9] Nepomuceno, Priam. “AFP to acquire diesel-electric subs in Phase 2 of modernization”. Philippine News Agency. 20 June 2018. https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1038865 Accessed 3 Jan 2021. [10] Vu, Khuong. “ASEAN ECONOMIC PROSPECTS AMID EMERGING TURBULENCE: DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR REFORM”. Foreign Policy at Brookings. July 2020. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/FP_20200710_asean_economi c_prospects_vu.pdf Accessed 3 Jan 2021. [11] Naval News Staff. “Myanmar Navy has commissioned seven warships and one submarine”. Naval News. 26 December 2020. https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/news/defence-news/2020/december/9469- myanmar-navy-has-commissioned-seven-new-warships-and-one-submarine.html Accessed 3 Jan 2021.

The Open Source Briefing 18 [12] Rahmat, Ridzwan. “PT PAL outlines weapons fit for Philippine Navy SSVs”. IHJ Jane’s Defence Weekly. 12 August 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20151208082229/http://www.janes.com/article/53644/pt-pal -outlines-weapons-fit-for-philippine-navy-ssvs Accessed 3 Jan 2021. [13] Naval News Staff. “Simbad-RC VSHORAD System Selected for Philippine Navy Future Frigates”. Naval News. 12 March 2019. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2019/03/simbad-rc-vshorad-system-selected-fo r-philippine-navys-future-frigates/ Accessed 3 Jan 2021. [14] MaxDefense Philippines. Images of BRP Jose Rizal with SIMBAD-RC. 30 December 2020, 1756H. https://www.facebook.com/MaxDefense/photos/pcb.1452467878257198/145246782492 3870/Accessed 3 Jan 2021.

Vietnam [1] Doornbos, Caitlin. “Navy Challenges Vietnamese Claims to Seas around Resort Island in South China Sea.” Stars and Stripes, Dec 28, 2020. “https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/navy-challenges-vietnamese-claims-to-seas-arou nd-resort-island-in-south-china-sea-1.656609 [2] McGleenon, Brian. “China Reacts to 'Meddling' India as New Delhi and Vietnam Stage South China Sea Clash.” Express.co.uk, Dec 28, 2020. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1377460/south-china-sea-news-china-latest-india -vietnam-naval-exercises-world-war-3 [3] Bhaumik, Anirban. “Beijing Frowns upon Growing Delhi-Hanoi Strategic Ties as India, Vietnam Warships Conduct Joint Drill in South China Sea.” Deccan Herald New Delhi, Dec 27, 2020. https://www.deccanherald.com/national/beijing-frowns-upon-growing-delhi-hanoi-strateg ic-ties-as-india-vietnam-warships-conduct-joint-drill-in-south-china-sea-932252.html [4] Sharma, Pranay. “India, Vietnam Strengthen Defence Ties Amid Shared Concerns over China’s Assertiveness.” South China Morning Post, Dec 23, 2020. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3115104/india-vietnam-strengthen-defe nce-ties-amid-shared-concerns-over

Aircraft Monitoring [1] https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202012220019 [2] https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4084708 [3] https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1342051676786573312

The Open Source Briefing 19 [4] https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1342413106501193729 [5] https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1342773030657826816?s=20 [6] https://twitter.com/AircraftSpots/status/1343089662789763145?s=20 [7] https://twitter.com/AircraftSpots/status/1343835094390169601?s=20 [8] https://twitter.com/KimagureGolf9/status/1344849303668310017 [9] https://twitter.com/is_keelu/status/1344850037776523264?s=20

The Open Source Briefing 20