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Yemen between the Impact of the Climate Change and the Ongoing Saudi- War: A Real Tragedy

An Analytical Report Published by the Centre For Governance and Peace-building-Yemen, in Collaboration with Centre for International Development Issues Nijmegen, The Netherlands.

© GPBC and CIDIN, Radboud University Sana’a , November 2017

Ms. Hadil Mohamed Centre for Governance and Peace-building-Yemen Dr. Moosa Elayah/ [email protected] Centre for International Development Issues Nijmegen, The Netherlands Dr. Lau Schuplen / [email protected] Centre for International Development Issues Nijmegen, The Netherlands

cases, mostly among children. More Climate than 50,000 children are expected to die of change is one starvation and disease by end of year 2017. of the global Introduction inevitable Both global and local climate change impacts

challenges are likely to matter for future development, Page | that face given the ’s high levels of food import 1 societies in dependency, food insecurity, and . our time. The process of global warming Yemen imports between 70 and 90 percent of shows no signs of decreasing and is expected cereals and is a net importer of many other to bring about long-term changes in weather food items. Yemen is also the poorest country conditions. Climate change poses a in the Arab , with an estimated 65 fundamental threat to the places, species and percent of its people living in poverty, and is people's livelihoods. It affects ' among the most food-insecure countries in economies and food security through a the world, with 32 percent of the population variety of channels. Rising temperatures and hungry, that is, without access to enough changes in rainfall patterns affect agricultural food. Rural–urban inequalities are high. The yields of both rain-fed and irrigated crops. A number of food-insecure people living in rural higher frequency of may impair areas (37.3 percent), is more than five times hydropower production and an increase in higher than in urban areas (17.7 percent). floods can significantly raise. Such sector-level Within rural areas, rural nonfarm households impacts will have knock-on effects on other have higher food-insecurity rates than farm sectors and thus influence economic growth, households. The ongoing war is hitting the food security, and household incomes. Yemeni economy, society the poor hard. There are sharp declines in oil exports, For Yemen, War has had a devastating effect foreign aid, and tourism plus double digit on Yemen’s people and its infrastructure, inflation. Since the beginning of 2011, there is many civilians have been killed in the fighting a huge increased number of poor and food- and parts of the country stand on the brink of insecure people, as today 70% of the total . 12,000 of 14,400 schools in Yemen Yemeni population rely on aid to have been shut down and teachers’ salaries survive. Nearly 400,000 children in Yemen are have not been paid. Around 2600 schools at risk of death from severe acute were partly or destroyed by the Saudi-led malnutrition. coalition. Health, water and sanitation systems have been bombed to the point of This paper assesses the impact of climate collapse leaving over 15 million people change and Saudi-Yemen ongoing war on without adequate access to clean drinking Yemen’s economy, agriculture, households water and safe sanitation. Millions more are and health and the proposed solutions for hungry and need help in getting a decent adaptation to climate change. meal. Waste is piling up on the streets and in the settlements of displaced people because Yemen is an sanitation services, severely damaged by the Geographic location, arid Middle two-years’ war. International aid agencies Land Area and the Eastern tackling the cholera crisis are in danger of resources of Yemen country, being overwhelmed by the scale of the occupying an outbreak. Up to the time of writing this of 527,970 report, there are around 956,000 discovered km2. It has a

2,250-km coastline along the Gulf of The Houthis and the . Yemen is characterized by 5 took an active major ecological systems as follows: Hot- The Current Political role in the 2011 humid coastal plain, temperate , Situation in Yemen uprising. They Yemen high plateaus and Hadramout and Al- used the period Mmahrah uplands, The Interior and between 2011 Page | the Islands . and 2014 to 2 organize their Agriculture sector mainly depends on military and primitive methods and rain steams which political wings, with some advice and support make it vulnerable to extreme climate from and the Lebanese , and to changes such as and floods. The extend their influence into neighboring sector also faces various challenges, the most governments using their militias but also by important of all is the scarcity of water persuading to ally with them. They resources. It absorbs almost 50 percent of the aimed to root out the influence of Islah, work force and accounts for 11.4 percent of which in 2012/ 2013 seemed likely to be the GDP (current prices) in the average during the most important player in the post-Saleh period 2001-08. Rainfall varies widely across Yemen. During 2014 they took over Amran the country, from less than 50 mm along the and then Sana’a, targeting military units coast, and rising with the topography to associated with General Mohsen and Islah between 500 and 800 mm in the Western and allies of the Sadiq and Hamid al-Ahmar Highlands, and dropping again to below 50 family (who they thought had sent tribal mm in the desert interior. militias to assist the fighting against them in the ). In doing so they formed an The water sector in Yemen faces formidable unstated alliance with Saleh, who used his challenges, and water table is declining in strong influence in parts of the army and in average by about 6-7 meters annually due to tribes North of Sana’a to assist the Houthis over-abstraction. The capital advance. By ,2014 the Houthis had Sana’a is one of top ten water scarce cities in occupied Sana’a and controlled much of the world and its groundwater is being Northwest Yemen. They did not want to drastically depleted. The increasingly growing occupy the . Their move on Aden was water crisis in Yemen has severe socio- directed against current international economic and environmental consequences recognized President, Hadi, not the Southern including decreased agriculture productivity, Movement. reduced food security, increased conflict over resources and accelerated land degradation, The '' has gained and increased livelihood vulnerability. With momentum in its calls to split from the the current weak adaptive and institutional of Yemen. It is known as Al-Haraak capacity, climate change associated impact (the movement) within Yemen. The southern including more frequent, and prolonged movement also known as Al-Haraak Al Januby droughts under specific climatic sceneries will composes of several loosely affiliated push livelihood vulnerability of the poor into organizations and activists in the southern further declines, leading to further governorates that were protesting the environmental resource degradation, injustices of the northern based regime. increased ecological scarcities, and hardship, and hence increased poverty expansion. In March 2015, and a coalition of Arab allies initiated a series of air strikes against Yemen, especially Houthi targets in 3.3°C by 2060, with warming occurring more Sana’a, and other parts of Yemen, leading to rapidly in the country’s interior than in the an ongoing conflict between pro-government coastal areas. Substantial increase in forces backed by the Saudi-led coalition, and frequency of hot days and nights (exceeding Houthi militias allied with units of the armed temperature of hottest 10% historical forces loyal to former President Ali Abdullah days/nights); decrease in frequency of cold Page | Saleh. The situation is made more complex by days and nights. Wide range of projections 3 the presence of Al Qaeda in the Arabian (increases and decreases) for rainfall, with Peninsula (AQAP) and of an affiliate of Islamic probable increases in September-November State in the east of Yemen, each of which has rainfall. Proportion of total rain falling in carried out attacks against the forces heavy events occurring September-November embroiled in the conflict . is expected to increase. Amounts of rain in maximum 1- and 5-day events occurring The humanitarian situation in Yemen begins September-November are expected to to deteriorate. The naval blockade enforced increase. Increase in sea level rise of 0.30 m by the Saudi coalition and airstrike damage to to 0.54 m by 2100. Yemen’s airports and other infrastructure are serious impediments to the delivery of Oil and humanitarian aid and exacerbated serious Economy and food agriculture are fuel shortages. Multiple attempts to security situation the two implement ceasefires to allow delivery of mainstays of the fuel, medical supplies, and food by Yemeni international organizations have been economy, but unsuccessful, and delivery of humanitarian both are under aid to those most in need has been difficult threat thereby and sporadic. increasing the country’s vulnerability to global commodity price changes.

Climate changes Oil reserves are set to run out by the Climate situation since the 1960s beginning of the next decade, and aquifers include: upon which irrigated agriculture depends

Increased have been seriously depleted in recent years. temperature Although oil is still the dominating sector, (1.8°C+) at a rate production is on a declining trend indicating of that other sectors in the economy will have to approximately increasingly contribute to growth. In the 0.39°C per decade, with most rapid rate of absence of new oil discoveries, it is estimated increase occurring during the summer that Yemen may become a net importer of oil months (June-August); rate of warming is as soon as 2016. This will have a significant more rapid than the global average. Decrease impact on the economy given that oil in average rainfall at a rate of 1.2mm per revenues account for 60 percent of month (-9%) per decade, generally affecting government receipts and almost 90 percent the drier seasons, with declines particularly of exports. Yemen is also a net importer of noted in the Highlands. major food items, including maize, , other grains, livestock, fish and processed Projected Changes might include: Mean food. Agriculture’s trade orientation is very annual temperature increasing by 1.2°C to uneven, with imports accounting for more than a third of total domestic consumption number of food-insecure people living in rural and exports accounting for less than five areas is more than five times higher than in percent of domestic production. urban areas. About 6.4 million rural people are suffering from food insecurity, while in Beside oil production, agriculture is an urban areas 1.1 million are deficient in food. important part of the Yemeni economy. Page | Agriculture and related processing contribute The vulnerability is demonstrated by the 4 about 13 percent to GDP, about three relatively small difference between what quarters of which is produced in the highly Yemenis consume every day and what they populated Upper and Lower Highlands, with need to stay off hunger at their current level 30 and 40 percent of the total population, of activity less than 300 kcal/day nationwide. respectively, living in these agro-ecological This means that the average Yemeni zones. Qat- a mild narcotic -accounts for consumes only 15 percent more than the more than one-third of agricultural GDP; 2,019 kcal/day needed to avoid hunger. vegetables and fruit make up another one People in rural areas are more likely to fall third. Livestock and cereals contribute about into food insecurity than people living in 20 percent and 10 percent to agricultural urban areas. Although the average per capita GDP, respectively. Qat is almost exclusively calorie consumption in rural areas is 200 concentrated in the Highlands, while other kcal/day higher than in urban areas, the water-intensive crops such as fruit and average per capita calorie gap is lower by vegetables are also grown in the Red Sea and about 130 kcal/day. This difference is the Tihama Plain. Upper and Lower Highlands are result of the significantly higher calorie needs the two main contributors to agricultural and of rural people (2,106 kcal/day on average) overall GDP, followed by the Red Sea and compared with urban people (1,708 kcal/day Tihama Plain, the Internal Plateau, the on average). Rural people need more calories Coast and the Desert zone. The for fetching water from wells, carrying goods flood-affected Internal Plateau and Arabian to and purchases from markets over long Sea Coast together account for only 7.3 per distances, and working hard on farms and in cent of agricultural GDP, yet 20 per cent of fisheries. Yemen’s fruit is produced in the Internal Plateau and one third of total fish catch stems from the Arabian Sea Coast. Food and Nearly half of agriculture-related processing makes up The Nutrition Situation all children about 50 per cent of household consumption under five expenditures. years old in Yemen are The food security situation in Yemen is highly chronically vulnerable to shocks such as food price surges malnourished and climate variability. Its estimated in 2009 (67 percent) that the Yemeni population accounts for and 23 percent suffer from acute about 23 million people, Food insecurity malnutrition. With rates of chronic affects 32.1 percent of the population, almost malnutrition this high, the physical and one-third of the population, or 7.5 million mental development of Yemeni children is people, do not have enough food. Food severely at risk, a disadvantage from which insecurity among the rural population is they cannot recover. Children lose their almost ten percentage points higher than it is identity in Yemen because of aggression. among the urban population. The absolute Some of them lose their families and some of them lose their physical organs and become of the first clear examples of a large-scale permanently disabled. armed conflict where in resource scarcity, linked to climate change and natural resource It is recommended that infants receive animal mismanagement played a role. Yemen faces protein daily (or receive iron strikingly similar risks. It's among the most supplementation) and consume vitamin A Water-stressed countries in the world, Page | daily. In Yemen, only 15 percent of infants brought on by regional drought, a naturally 5 consumed vitamin A rich foods and 33 dry climate and failed attempts at percent consumed meat, fish, or eggs. The management. Moreover, Fuel prices, closely situation does not improve for young children linked to the price of water in Yemen helped (aged between two and five years) where to spark the protests in 2014. only 11 percent consumed vitamin A rich foods and 33 percent ate animal based In rural Yemen, identity is connected to land proteins. It is reported that undernourished and water rights, and conflicts over these Yemeni mothers had higher rates of children rights could be the spark for larger tribal who were malnourished than healthy disputes. It is therefore no surprise that the mothers. Eighteen percent of children born to pressure is being felt locally from the undernourished mothers suffered from acute lowering water supplies. The Yemeni malnutrition compared to twelve percent in government has made attempts to address healthy mothers. Chronic malnutrition was water issues, but these attempts have mostly also higher among children with failed. In the late and early 2000s the undernourished mothers, with 54% stunted Yemeni government implemented five compared to 45%. The largest difference was demand management measures: increases in found in terms of underweight: 46% of the diesel price; elimination of credit children born to undernourished mothers subsidies for agriculture; modification of the were malnourished compared to 33%. fruit and vegetable ban; regulation and taxation of groundwater; and projects to support increased water productivity in The civil war in agriculture. Despite these measures, the The Saudi-Yemen War Yemen seems Yemeni government lacked an effective tool and Water Scarcity to be politically to implement and enforce them. motivated

competition for Water shortages have increasingly been at power among the center of humanitarian concerns during many actors the civil war. There have been reports of both with varying the Houthi and Saudi forces blocking motives. The players include Houthi rebels, al- deliveries of humanitarian aid consisting of Qaeda in the , western food and water. In February 2016, there were backed Saudi and UAE troops, mercenaries, reports that Saudi planes bombed and and millions of Yemeni civilians caught in the destroyed a reservoir that held the drinking middle. Local and Tribal conflicts are not new water for 30,000 Yemenis; roughly 5,000 to Yemen, but these have increased in recent cubic meters of water. There have also been decades. Underneath these political and reports of guards confiscating water from societal tensions there lies a more basic civilians at Houthi-controlled checkpoints tension: Water. around the city of . Neither side sees water resources as off-limits. The total The has been held up as one number of Yemenis without a clean water supply and sanitation to at least 16 million – insecurity and 7 million people who do not almost two-thirds of the population. Houthi know where rebels have laid siege to the southern city of their next meal Taiz since April 2015, and residents of the city The famine Crisis in will come from. have had restricted access to medical Yemen This represents supplies, food and water. In a place as dry as a 33 per cent Page | Yemen, combatants are treating water as a increase since 6 resource to be withheld from the enemy. late 2014. Agricultural Declining production, employing more than half of the Cholera Outbreak agricultural population, has also drastically declined due productivity, water to insecurity, high costs, and sporadic in Yemen scarcity, and availability of agricultural inputs. The fishery ongoing conflict sector has also been heavily impacted with a contribute to the near 50 per cent reduction in the number of fragile state of fishermen due to the impact of the crisis. Yemen’s health About 3.3 million children and pregnant sector. Yemenis suffer from serious vector- women are acutely malnourished, including borne diseases, including . Climate 462,000 children under 5 suffering from change may affect the prevalence and severe acute malnutrition. This represents a morbidity and mortality rates of such 57 per cent increase since late 2015 and diseases. Recent outbreaks of cholera in threatens the lives and life-long prospects of Yemen have resulted from declining those affected. availability of safe drinking water sources. Damage from the war has turned Yemen into Food is available in the markets, including a fertile environment for cholera, a bacterial . Yet, Yemenis throughout the country infection spread by water contaminated with increasingly are unable to purchase it. After feces. As garbage has piled up and sewage two years of ground fighting and air systems have failed, more Yemenis are relying bombardment, the economy is in tatters. on easily polluted wells for drinking water. Families and communities are approaching a Heavy rains since April accelerated the wells’ breaking point, having sold their assets, spent contamination. In developed countries, their savings and exhausted extended cholera is not life-threatening and can be networks of support. The situation is most easily treated, with antibiotics if severe. But severe for the more than three million in Yemen, rampant malnutrition has made internally displaced persons (IDPs) and many people, particularly children, especially residents of governorates like Hodeida, who vulnerable to the disease. Its reported that were the poorest before the conflict. more than 960,000 suspected cases of cholera in a six-month period, topping Haiti’s One of the most 340,000 cases after an earthquake in 2011. recommended Climate change: solutions to The warned that one third of suggestions for the Yemen’s water Yemen's 22 provinces are on the verge of famine. current situation in shortages is the An estimated 17 million people are currently Yemen development of food insecure, including 5.3 million people who desalination urgently need immediate assistance to save their plants along the lives from death due to famine and severe food coast. However, it is not a sufficient solution soon. Firstly, instability in Yemen, which is curb the rise in food insecurity in the short likely to persist for many years, makes run, but the addition of public investments in desalination infrastructure projects of the size infrastructure (related to utilities, transport, needed to be built infeasible. Plants would be trade, and construction) fosters food security a likely target for groups trying to disrupt the and sustainable economic growth. The process, and the necessary investments for combination of direct transfers and Page | such projects would be difficult to come by investment is a promising strategy for joining 7 either from the Yemeni government, or from the subsidy reform with the promotion of outside financial institutions. Secondly, sustainable development. Transfers, desalination projects are costly. Saudi Arabia investments, and resulting long-term has expressed a desire to lead the rebuilding productivity gains complement each other of Yemen after the conflict, but because of and lead to reduced food insecurity and Saudi Arabia’s role in the conflict, there poverty. would likely be much domestic opposition to this. The Saudi Development Fund and the Reduce Qat production and consumption: Yemeni government had begun the initial Yemen faces a crisis as its demand for water negotiations to build a Saudi-funded continues to exceed its renewable supply. desalination plant for the city of Taiz before Agriculture, which can make an important the escalation of the civil war, but the contribution to rural development and food negotiations have stalled due to the conflict. security, is constrained by the lack of water; However, this deal does at least show a water scarcity and contamination threaten willingness by Saudi Arabia, a country with the health of many households. And in all of considerable desalination experience, to help this, Qat emerges as the major culprit, Yemen overcome its water problems, which consuming more than 40 percent of Yemen’s could also serve as a trust-building factor water supply. Thus, sharply reducing Qat between the conflicting parties. Thirdly, consumption is vital for avoiding drought, Sana’a is not near the coast and would achieving non-Qat agricultural growth, and require an extensive pipeline to bring meeting Yemen’s food security goals. desalinated water into the city. The likely high However, measures to reduce Qat costs and insecurity of a pipeline to Sana’a consumption may meet sharp resistance from could leave the city without a water supply in the Yemeni people. Policy measures will the future; possibly forcing an abandonment require a communication campaign to of the city. provide comprehensive information on their necessity and urgency. The benefits of a Qat Reform petroleum subsidies: The tax will outweigh the difficulties of Government of Yemen made a first step implementation: it is likely to discourage toward reforming petroleum subsidies by people from excessive consumption, allow increasing fuel prices in 2010. However, Yemen to use its water supply more simply phasing out the petroleum subsidy effectively, and generate additional revenue would increase food insecurity because for the government, all of which make the higher fuel prices affect farmers and the population more food secure. The tax urban food insecure most. To stabilize food revenue should be invested in agriculture and security during the reform period, the ample water infrastructure and used for the budgetary savings from reform should be promotion of alternatives to Qat production, used to finance a combination of direct such as cereals and production, and transfers and productivity-enhancing processing of agricultural products. If this” investments. Transfer payments alone only Qat reduction for agricultural development” strategy is implemented properly, farmers campaigns”). First, a national family planning will be more than compensated for the loss of program should be implemented. Such a Qat revenues, and Yemen’s food security will program should be strongly integrated with improve. primary healthcare and should involve religious leaders. Second, a high-level Improve food security risk management: campaign should be launched to address the Page | Yemen is very vulnerable to global food price lack of nutrition and health knowledge among 8 shocks and disasters, so the country must Yemenis. This nutritional education program develop appropriate risk management should cover a wide range of topics, including mechanisms. First, the cereal import market dietary diversity and micronutrient must be made more competitive. Currently, malnutrition. Third, a campaign should focus the market is dominated by a small number on the acceleration of women’s of importers, which increases local cereals empowerment. The evidence clearly shows prices even in relatively stable economic that gender inequality goes hand in hand with circumstances. Appropriate laws and malnutrition. The campaign should focus on regulations that increase competitiveness will improving women’s educational attainment, make an important contribution to improving economic participation, health status, and food security. Second, the government should political empowerment. hedge against extreme price fluctuations caused by emergency situations such as the 2007–08 global food crisis. This can be The world’s achieved through national grain reserves, Conclusion climate is regional grain reserves, or hedging in changing and will international markets. For any type of price continue to risk management, an effective market-price- change into the monitoring system will be critical for effective coming century decision-making. Third, the government at rates should recognize the role of social transfers in projected to be unprecedented in recent building economic resilience among human history. Climate change has made vulnerable communities. Social transfers can weather less predictable and has increased include direct transfers, cash-for-work environmental degradation. Environmental programs, community asset building through degradation has historically influenced public works, assistance in starting political stability. Variables like rapid microenterprises, and nutrition and health population change, water and food scarcity, programs. The government should use the migration, energy and natural resources political opportunities that arise from food- consumption are already causing problems price crises and disasters to incorporate risk and will continue to be impacted by climate management into the overall economic change. development planning framework. Strong collaboration among governmental agencies, This study focuses on the impact of climate the private sector, and Yemen’s international change and ongoing Saudi war on Yemen. partners is essential for success. Population growth in Yemen is among the highest in the world, with an average annual Launch high-level awareness campaigns: The growth rate of 3% in recent years. Almost Yemeni government should launch three one-third of Yemenis or 7.5 million people do national campaigns at the highest political not have enough food to satisfy their needs. level (for example, as “presidential Results also show that 57.9% of all children suffer from under nourishment and poor health. Such high prevalence of child malnutrition has a serious consequence for the future development of Yemen's society and economy. In an international context, this References puts Yemen among the 10 most food insecure Page | countries in the world. 9

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