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Large Scale Analysis of Rain-On-Snow Events References D Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Open Access Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 10, 13231–13263, 2013 Hydrology and www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/10/13231/2013/ Earth System doi:10.5194/hessd-10-13231-2013 HESSD © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Sciences Discussions 10, 13231–13263, 2013 This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Large scale analysis Sciences (HESS). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in HESS if available. of rain-on-snow events Large scale analysis of changing D. Freudiger et al. frequencies of rain-on-snow events and their impact on floods Title Page Abstract Introduction D. Freudiger, I. Kohn, K. Stahl, and M. Weiler Conclusions References Chair of Hydrology, Albert-Ludwigs-University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany Tables Figures Received: 18 September 2013 – Accepted: 21 October 2013 – Published: 5 November 2013 Correspondence to: D. Freudiger ([email protected]) J I Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. J I Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion 13231 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract HESSD In January 2011 a rain-on-snow (RoS) event caused floods in the major river basins in Central Europe, i.e. the Rhine, Danube, Weser, Elbe, Oder, Ems basins. This event 10, 13231–13263, 2013 prompted the question how to define a RoS event and whether those events have 5 become more frequent. Based on the flood of January 2011 and on other known events Large scale analysis of the past, threshold values for RoS events were determined and consequently events of rain-on-snow which combine average rainfall of at least 3 mm on a snowpack of at least 10 mm snow events water equivalent (SWE) as well as 20 % melt content by summing rainfall and snowmelt were analysed. RoS events were estimated for the last 61 yr and for the entire study D. Freudiger et al. 10 area based on a temperature-index snow model driven with the European-scale E- OBS data. Frequencies and magnitude differ depending on the elevation range. When distinguishing alpine, upland, and lowland basins, we found that upland basins are Title Page most influenced by RoS events. Over the last decades their occurrences shifted from Abstract Introduction late to early winter. Overall, the frequency of rainfall increased in the winter, while the 15 frequency of snowfall decreased in the spring. In nearly all lowland and upland basins Conclusions References an increasing trend in the frequency of RoS events since 1980 was observed. These Tables Figures results suggest an increasing flood hazard from RoS events in January and February in the medium mountain ranges of Central Europe, especially in the Rhine, Weser, and Elbe river basins. J I J I 20 1 Introduction Back Close Rain-on-snow (RoS) events are relevant for water resources management, and Full Screen / Esc especially for flood forecast and flood risk management (McCabe et al., 2007), since they can cause flood events in the winter season. These events are of major interest Printer-friendly Version because they depend not only on the rain intensity and amount, but also on the Interactive Discussion 25 prevailing freezing level, the snow water equivalent (SWE), the snow energy content, the timing of release, and the areal extent of the snowpack (Kattelmann, 1997; McCabe 13232 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | et al., 2007). Snowpacks are water reservoirs of large regional extent and storage capacity, which can produce rapid melt in combination with warm air temperatures and HESSD high humidity (e.g. Singh et al., 1997; Marks et al., 1998). Consequently, cumulating 10, 13231–13263, 2013 rainfall and snowmelt can increase the magnitude of runoff and can have much 5 greater potential for flooding than a usual melt event (Kattelmann, 1985; Marks et al., 1998). The scientific interest for this kind of events was raised in the last decades by Large scale analysis global warming and several methods of analysis and measurement were developed of rain-on-snow to understand and quantify the physical processes for basins in different climatic events locations and elevations (e.g. Blöschl et al., 1990; Singh et al., 1997; Floyd and Weiler, D. Freudiger et al. 10 2008) on individual events. Many studies observed an increase in the occurrence of liquid precipitation in the winter time and an earlier snowmelt due to increase of air temperature in Europe and the USA (e.g. Birsan et al., 2005; Hamlet et al., 2005; Title Page Knowles et al., 2006; Renard et al., 2008). Furthermore, Köplin et al. (2013) predicted a shift from snowmelt dominated runoff catchments to a more variable snow and rain- Abstract Introduction 15 fed regime in the future in Switzerland. Their simulations also suggest a diversification of flood types in the winter time and an increase of rain-on-snow flood events in the Conclusions References future (Köplin et al., 2013). Tables Figures Only few studies specifically analysed the changes of the frequency of RoS events over time and especially over large areas. Ye (2008) observed that the increase in J I 20 air temperature resulted in an increase of rainfall days in winter in Northern Eurasia. In a further study, Ye et al. (2008) were able to correlate the increase in RoS days J I with the increase in air temperature for the same study area. Sui and Koehler (2001) Back Close studied the RoS induced flood events in Southern Germany using long-term (1961– 1995) observed data at 10 meteorologic stations and 17 hydrologic gauging stations Full Screen / Esc 25 in a forested region of the Northern Danube tributaries at elevation ranges from 320 to 1456 ma.s.l. They found decreasing trends in SWE for nearly all stations, which Printer-friendly Version could be explained by temperature trends, and increasing trends in maximum daily winter precipitation. Even though the precipitation in winter is less than in summer in Interactive Discussion this area, Sui and Koehler (2001) observed larger extreme values of peak discharge 13233 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | in winter than in summer, which led them to the conclusion that the water volume through snowmelt plays a key role in RoS events. They also observed a positive trend HESSD in the winter flood quantiles at all gauging stations. Furthermore McCabe et al. (2007) 10, 13231–13263, 2013 analysed monthly RoS events for the years 1949 through 2003 in the western USA. 5 Their results showed generally positive temporal trends of RoS events frequencies for high elevation sites and negative trends for low elevation sites. In these areas, the Large scale analysis increase of temperature seems to affect the occurrence of snow, contributing therefore of rain-on-snow to the lower frequency of RoS events (McCabe et al., 2007). Finally, Surfleet and events Tullos (2013) analysed the frequency of RoS events in the Santiam River basin in D. Freudiger et al. 10 western United States for three elevation bands using Global Circulation Models. Their results showed that an increase in air temperature due to climate change would lead to a decrease of high peak flow due to RoS events for low and middle elevation zones, Title Page while at high elevation bands, this kind of events would increase. Most studies differ on the characterisation of RoS driven events. McCabe et al. Abstract Introduction 15 (2007) and Surfleet and Tullos (2013) defined an event as RoS driven, if simultaneously liquid precipitation occurs, maximum daily temperature is greater than 0 ◦C, and Conclusions References a decrease in snowpack can be observed, while for Ye et al. (2008), a RoS event takes Tables Figures place only when at least one of the four daily precipitation measurements is liquid and the ground is covered by 1 cm snow or more. Sui and Koehler (2001) found that most J I 20 RoS events in Southern Germany occurred when snowmelt was larger than the rainfall depth. These definitions allow identifying all possible RoS events but are insufficient if J I one focusses on the events that can effectively cause flood events. Back Close A good example of such events is the RoS event that occurred in January 2011 in Central Europe. Due to a strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillations, Full Screen / Esc ◦ 25 the temperature anomalies in December 2010 reached −4 C in Middle and North Europe (Lefebvre and Becker, 2011), and led to especially large amounts of snow Printer-friendly Version all over Germany, with snowpacks reaching the maximum observed snow depth since beginning of the measurements at some locations (e.g. Böhm et al., 2011; LHW, 2011; Interactive Discussion Besler, 2011). January 2011 brought thawing temperatures in combination with rainfall 13234 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | events and from 6 to 16 January very high water levels were observed at nearly all German gauging stations (e.g. Böhm et al., 2011; Bastian et al., 2011; Karuse, HESSD 2011; LHW, 2011; Fell, 2011; Besler, 2011). Kohn et al. (2013) clearly identified the 10, 13231–13263, 2013 simultaneous occurrence of liquid precipitation and snowmelt as the driving factor for 5 those flood events, that led, beside other impacts, to a restriction of navigation on the Rhine and large inundations in the lower Elbe basin. Large scale analysis Due to the great hydrologic impact that RoS events can have, there is a real need for of rain-on-snow assessing the changes in frequencies of RoS events and for identifying, which events events may cause large flooding.
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