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Large-Scale Analysis of Changing Frequencies of Rain-On-Snow Events with flood-Generation Potential

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Large-Scale Analysis of Changing Frequencies of Rain-On-Snow Events with flood-Generation Potential Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2695–2709, 2014 www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/2695/2014/ doi:10.5194/hess-18-2695-2014 © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Large-scale analysis of changing frequencies of rain-on-snow events with flood-generation potential D. Freudiger, I. Kohn, K. Stahl, and M. Weiler Chair of Hydrology, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany Correspondence to: D. Freudiger ([email protected]) Received: 18 September 2013 – Published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 5 November 2013 Revised: 21 May 2014 – Accepted: 27 May 2014 – Published: 24 July 2014 Abstract. In January 2011 a rain-on-snow (RoS) event 1 Introduction caused floods in the major river basins in central Europe, i.e. the Rhine, Danube, Weser, Elbe, Oder, and Ems. This event Rain-on-snow (RoS) events are relevant for water resources prompted the questions of how to define a RoS event and management, particularly for flood forecasting and flood risk whether those events have become more frequent. Based on management (McCabe et al., 2007). RoS events have the the flood of January 2011 and on other known events of the potential to cause large flood events during the winter sea- past, threshold values for potentially flood-generating RoS son. They represent one of five flood process types defined events were determined. Consequently events with rainfall by Merz and Blöschl (2003) that occur in temperate-climate of at least 3 mm on a snowpack of at least 10 mm snow wa- mountain river systems and are strongly elevation dependent. ter equivalent (SWE) and for which the sum of rainfall and These events are complex as they do not only depend on the snowmelt contains a minimum of 20 % snowmelt were anal- rain intensity and amount, but also on the prevailing freez- ysed. RoS events were estimated for the time period 1950– ing level, the snow water equivalent (SWE), the snow en- 2011 and for the entire study area based on a temperature ergy content, the timing of release, and the areal extent of the index snow model driven with a European-scale gridded data snowpack (Kattelmann, 1997; McCabe et al., 2007). Snow- set of daily climate (E-OBS data). Frequencies and magni- packs are water reservoirs of large regional extent and storage tudes of the modelled events differ depending on the eleva- capacity, which can produce rapid melt in combination with tion range. When distinguishing alpine, upland, and lowland warm air temperatures and high humidity (e.g. Singh et al., basins, we found that upland basins are most influenced by 1997; Marks et al., 1998). Consequently, cumulative rainfall RoS events. Overall, the frequency of rainfall increased dur- and snowmelt can increase the magnitude of runoff and can ing winter, while the frequency of snowfall decreased during thus generate much greater potential for flooding than a usual spring. A decrease in the frequency of RoS events from April snowmelt event (Kattelmann, 1985; Marks et al., 1998). Be- to May has been observed in all upland basins since 1990. In sides their large damage potential, such events are also very contrast, the results suggest an increasing trend in the magni- difficult to forecast as shown by Rössler et al. (2014) for a tude and frequency of RoS days in January and February for RoS-driven flood event in October 2011 in the Bernese Alps most of the lowland and upland basins. These results suggest in Switzerland. Scientific interest has therefore increased in that the flood hazard from RoS events in the early winter sea- the last decades, and a number of different methods of analy- son has increased in the medium-elevation mountain ranges sis have been developed to better understand and quantify the of central Europe, especially in the Rhine, Weser, and Elbe physical processes by studying individual events in different river basins. locations (e.g. Blöschl et al., 1990; Singh et al., 1997; Floyd and Weiler, 2008; Garvelmann et al., 2013). Many studies observed an increase in the occurrence of rainfall in the wintertime and a trend to earlier snowmelt due to an increase of air temperatures in Europe (e.g. Birsan et al., 2005; Renard et al., 2008). Furthermore, Köplin et al. (2014) predicted a shift from snowmelt-dominated runoff to Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 2696 D. Freudiger et al.: Large-scale analysis of rain-on-snow events a more variable snow- and rain-fed regime in the future in North Atlantic Oscillation, temperature anomalies in De- Switzerland. These meteorological changes are very likely to cember 2010 reached –4 ◦C in central and northern Europe influence the occurrence and magnitude of RoS events, and (Lefebvre and Becker, 2011), and record snowpacks were ob- Köplin et al. (2014) predict a diversification of flood types in served nearly all over Germany for this time of the year (e.g. the wintertime as well as an increase of RoS flood events in Böhm et al., 2011; LHW, 2011; Besler, 2011). January 2011 the future in Switzerland. then brought thawing temperatures in combination with rain- Although Merz and Blöschl (2003) observed that 20 % of fall events, and from 6 to 16 January very high flows were the flood events in Austria were RoS-driven during the period observed at nearly all German gauging stations (e.g. Böhm 1971–1997 and hence showed the importance of such events et al., 2011; Bastian et al., 2011; Karuse, 2011; LHW, 2011; in central Europe, only few studies have specifically anal- Fell, 2011; Besler, 2011). Kohn et al. (2014) identified the si- ysed the changes of the frequency of RoS events over time multaneous occurrence of rainfall and snowmelt as the driv- and especially over large areas. Ye et al. (2008) observed an ing factor for those flood events, which led, beside other im- increase in RoS days in northern Eurasia, which they were pacts, to a restriction of navigation on the river Rhine and able to correlate with the observed increase in air tempera- large inundations in the lower Elbe river basin. The aims of ture and rainfall in the wintertime. Sui and Koehler (2001) this study are therefore (i) to derive criteria for RoS-driven attributed an increase in peak flows in the northern Danube events that have the potential to cause floods, using the case tributaries in Germany to an increase in RoS events, based study of January 2011 in Germany, and (ii) to analyse the on the combination of decreasing SWE and increasing maxi- changes in frequencies and magnitudes of these types of mum daily winter precipitation sums they found at a number events during the time period 1950–2011 in six major cen- of climate stations in the area. McCabe et al. (2007) found tral European river basins, i.e. Rhine, Danube, Elbe, Weser, disparate trends in the western USA with generally positive Oder, and Ems. temporal trends of RoS events frequencies for high-elevation sites and negative trends for low-elevation sites. In these ar- eas, the increase of temperature appears to affect the occur- 2 Materials and methods rence of snow, contributing therefore to a lower frequency of RoS events (McCabe et al., 2007). Similarly, Surfleet and 2.1 Study area Tullos (2013) predicted with a model experiment that an in- crease in air temperature due to climate change would lead to The study area embodies the six major river basins of the a decrease of high peak flow due to RoS events for low- and German fluvial network. Since only German streamflow middle-elevation zones, while at high-elevation bands these records were used, the basins of the rivers Rhine, Danube, kinds of events would increase. All these studies show the Elbe, Weser, Oder, and Ems are considered only upstream of correlation between the frequency of RoS events, the changes the most downstream station in German territory (Fig. 1). Ac- in air temperature, and the importance of the elevation range. cording to the Hydrological Atlas of Germany (HAD, Bun- They therefore stress the need for a more accurate trend anal- desanstalt für Gewässerkunde), the basins were divided into ysis of those events in the context of climate change in cen- alpine, upland, or lowland sub-basins. This classification is tral Europe, where discharges mainly depend on alpine and motivated by the elevation of the main tributaries, but is not mid-elevation tributaries. strictly guided by elevation as the main rivers drop quickly Previous studies differ on the definition of RoS events. to lower elevations. McCabe et al. (2007) and Surfleet and Tullos (2013) de- Only the basins of the rivers Rhine and Danube have an fined an event as RoS-driven if simultaneously rainfall oc- “alpine” section in this classification. The alpine portion of curs, maximum daily temperature is greater than 0 ◦C, and the Rhine encompasses the basin ca. above Basel, and be- a decrease in snowpack can be observed; while for Ye et al. sides the entire basin area in Austria and Switzerland with (2008), a RoS event takes place only when at least one of four high mountains up to 4000 m a.s.l. it also includes the south- daily precipitation measurements is liquid and the ground is ern Black Forest with elevations of only up to 1500 m a.s.l. covered by ≥ 1 cm of snow. Sui and Koehler (2001) found The alpine section of the Danube basin consists also of a that most RoS events in southern Germany occurred when small part in the Black Forest near the source, but then in- snowmelt was larger than the rainfall depth.
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