What’s Ahead for this Winter

Ted Buehner

Warning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service – Seattle/Tacoma Winter Season Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Winter 2017 / 2018

NWS Climate Prediction Center www.cpc.noaa.gov

El Nino vs La Nina

‘Neutral’ Conditions are around average SSTs Historical Trends

1997-98 2015-16 1972-73 1982-83 1991-92 1957-58 1965-66

1988-89 1998-00 2007-08 1955-56 1973-75

El Nino or La Nina (negative) - Weak: 0.5 - 0.9C - Moderate: 1.0 – 1.4 C - Strong: >1.5 C ENSO Occurrence

El- La- Niño Niña 35% 37% Niño Indices: Recent Evolution Tropical Pacific Status

• La Nina conditions have developed across the eastern equatorial Pacific • Sea surface temperatures (SST) have recently trended cooler again • La Nina Watch – La Nina conditions are anticipated for this fall/winter • Jet stream – tends to spend more time at our latitude with more Pacific storms What’s Ahead – This Winter?

• Still Early

• ~55% Chance of El Niño Neutral Conditions for this coming winter ENSO-neutral • Less than 25% chance for El Nino or La Nina La Niña • Stay Tuned

Source: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso-sst_table What’s Ahead – This Winter?

• Oh how things evolved!

El Niño • ~65% Chance of La Nina for this winter ENSO-neutral • 30-40% Chance for Neutral Conditions La Niña • Less than 10% Chance for El Nino

Source: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso-sst_table U. S. Seasonal Outlooks November 2017 – January 2018

Temperature Precipitation

33% 4033%-50% U. S. Seasonal Outlooks January – March 2018

Temperature Precipitation

60%33% 55-60% Significant Winter Weather Breakdown by ENSO Phase • Major floods 1. ENSO neutral 2. La Niña (e.g.: 1964-65, 1995-96 and 2007-08) 3. El Niño • Major wind storms 1. La Niña (e.g.: 1995-96, 1998-99, 2007-08) 2. ENSO neutral 3. El Niño • Lowland snow events 1. La Niña (e.g.: 1949-50, 1955-56, 1964-65, 2010-11) 2. ENSO neutral 3. El Niño

Not all winters produce significant weather, yet our history shows…. In Summary • La Nina Watch in Effect • Current seasonal outlook – Temperature: Even odds this fall, then increased odds on cooler than average this winter – Precipitation: Odds tipped to wetter than average this winter – Mountain Snowpack: Likely healthy, above average • CPC Seasonal Outlook Charts updated on 3rd Thursday of each month In Summary

• Can always expect some significant winter weather in the Pacific Northwest no matter if El Nino, La Nina or Neutral!

– On the event scale (based on history):

• Good Potential for Cold Air Outbreaks/Lowland Snow across the state

• Odds in Favor:

– One or more major flooding events

– One or more major wind storms

• Stay tuned to the latest this fall/winter season Questions?

(before proceeding) NWS Decision Support Tools and Resources You Can Use Decision Support Services

“What is a Good Forecast? An Essay on the Nature of Goodness in Weather Forecasting”

By Allan H. Murphy; Weather and Forecasting (June 1993)

“First, it should be understood that forecasts possess no intrinsic value. They acquire value through their ability to influence the decisions made by users of the forecast.” What Are….Decision Support Services? National Weather Service

News Media & The Private Sector Public Meteorologists

Emergency Management

Team Effort - Relationships NWS Seattle Media Partners The Warning System

• Detection / Warning

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To maximize the number of people who take appropriate and timely action to minimize injury, death, and property damage due to hazardous weather and flooding. Joint Efforts

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• Inconsistent Warning Information Ever Turned From – Delay Decision Making One TV or Radio – Fail To Believe Warnings Station To Another – Take The Wrong Action and Heard a – Take No Action Different Forecast? • Desired Public Response – Receive – Understand – Believe – Personalize – Take Proper Action When you’re prepared, you’re not scared ! Your Smartphone

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA Issued220 AM PDT WED by SEP all3 2008 NWS Offices:

.SYNOPSIS... COOL AND MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE NEXT FEW OregonDAYS...WITH A WARMING TREND BY THE END OF THEIssued WEEK. 4 times per day && around: .DISCUSSION... WashingtonTODAY AND TONIGHT...THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST3 AM WILL REMAIN IN A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS THE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A LOW PRESSURE9 AM SYSTEM IN IdahoTHE GREAT PLAINS. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF KEEPING THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THIS MORNING THE KOTX RADAR IS STILL PICKING UP SOME WEAK RETURNS3 PMACROSS MY IDAHO ZONES AS THE FAST MOVING TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING9 HOURS.PM THEN A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSVERSE THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FIRST...THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE IDAHO PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH THE Enhanced AFD from Seattle

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 300 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. UNSTABLE AIR WILL LEAD TO A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. A TRANSITION TO A COOLER REGIME WILL GET UNDERWAY SUNDAY....AS ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES COOLER MARINE AIR INLAND BY MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AS EXPECTED A STRONG UPPER RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OFFSHORE ALONG 150W (image). THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED WEAKLY OFFSHORE AS A THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. OF COURSE THIS IS THE CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR HOT SUMMER WEATHER IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...AND IT WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

THE HOT SPELL WILL REALLY GET UNDERWAY TODAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CLIMB ABOVE 590 DAM AND THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS VANCOUVER ISLAND (image). WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...BUT SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE ANOMALOUSLY LOW AND THEY SHOULD BE TIED OR BROKEN. FOR EXAMPLE THE RECORD AT SEATAC IS ONLY 88.

FRIDAYThese WILL BE WARMERare hypertext YET AS THE UPPER links RIDGE SHIFTSto images ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...AND THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL REALLY WARM UP BETWEENthat TODAY show AND FRIDAY the WITHweather 850 MB TEMPERATURES pattern. CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 20S (image).

SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE SERIES...AT LEAST FOR THE WESTERN WASHINGTON INTERIOR. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE TO OUR EAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL FALL SLIGHTLY...BUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM SLIGHTLY AND...MOST IMPORTANT...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT

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Alert Categories

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• What is happening

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• Alert originator WEA Messages Originated by NWS *When new alert or correction issued or time/area extended*

Warning Type WEA Message Tsunami danger on the coast. Go to high ground or move inland. Tsunami Warning (coming late Jan 2014) Check local media. –NWS Tornado Warning in this area til hh:mm tzT. Take shelter now. Tornado Warning Check local media. –NWS Extreme Wind Warning this area til hh:mm tzT ddd. Take shelter. – Extreme Wind Warning Extreme NWS Hurricane Warning this area til hh:mm tzT ddd. Check local media Hurricane Warning and authorities. -NWS Typhoon Warning this area til hh:mm tzT ddd. Check local media Typhoon Warning and authorities. -NWS Flash Flood Warning this area til hh:mm tzT. Avoid flooded areas. Flash Flood Warning Check local media. -NWS Severe Dust Storm Warning in this area til hh:mm tzT ddd. Avoid travel. Dust Storm Warning Check local media. -NWS

Legend tzT = timezone ddd= three letter abbreviation for day of the week What Does That Mean ?

Event – Driven Products

Outlook

Watch

Warning

Advisory Event – Driven Products Outlook Outlook (Heads Up!)

Severe weather conditions are possible in a few days. Consider options – start planning!

2-5 day lead time (long fuse): High Wind, Flood, Winter Storm

12-48 hours lead time (short-fuse): Flash Flood, Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado Event – Driven Products Watch / Warning / Advisory Watch (Get Prepared!) Severe weather conditions are possible, but not yet certain. Prepare now!

Up to 48 hours lead time (long-fuse): High Wind Watch, Coastal Flood Watch

Up to 12 hours lead time (short-fuse): Flash Flood Watch

Up to 6 hours lead time (short-fuse): Severe Thunderstorm Watch, Tornado Watch Event – Driven Products Watch / Warning / Advisory Warning (Take Action!) Severe weather conditions are imminent or have begun in your area. Take immediate action !!

Long-fused warnings: High Wind Warning, Winter Storm Warning, Coastal Flood Warning, Flood Warning

Short-fused warnings: Flash Flood Warning, Tornado Warning, Severe Thunderstorm Warning Event – Driven Products Watch / Warning / Advisory Advisory Weather conditions are expected to cause significant inconvenience and may be hazardous. The greatest hazard is to motorists. Winter Weather Advisory High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory Wind Advisory Heat Advisory Important Terminology NWS Weather and Flood Bulletins Also Impact-Based

Weather/Flood Weather/Flood Weather/Flood Outlook Watch Warning/ Advisory

Time to onset of event (hours)

96-72 48 24 0

Increasing confidence that event will occur Example - FLOOD WARNING TIMING

Forecast Flood Flood Flood Discussion Outlook Watch Warning 19

17

15

13

11 Stage(FT)

9

7

5 8/ 12:00 9/ 12:00 10/ 12:00 11/ 12:00 12/ 12:00 13/ 12:00 14/ 12:00 15/ 12:00

Date/Time

GLBW1 Flood Stage “High Wind” Criteria • High Wind Warning - Also Impact-Based • 40 MPH or more Sustained and/or Gusts of 58 MPH or greater • Wind Advisory – Also Impact-Based • 30-39 MPH Sustained and/or Gusts 45-57 MPH

Marine Warnings and Advisories

Hurricane Force Storm - 64 knots or greater

Storm Warning - 48 to 63 knots

Gale Warning - 34 to 47 knots

Small Craft Advisory - 21 to 33 knots (plus heavy coastal swells and rough bars) Winter Weather Criteria Also Impact-Based

Winter Storm Warning Winter Weather • Can combine with Ice and/or Strong Winds Advisory • Lowlands – 4 inches or more 1 to 3 inches • Mountains – 12 inches or more 6 to 11 inches

Blizzard Warning • Snow Combined with Strong Winds of 35 MPH or more and visibility less than 1/4 mile

Avalanche • #2 Weather-Related Killer in Washington National Weather Service Volunteers

• Amateur Radio

• CoCoRaHS

• Skywarn Weather Spotters CoCoRaHS Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow network

• Volunteers Report Precipitation On-Line. Community and Citizen Involvement!

– Rain , Hail , Snow • Daily & Event Driven Reports • Interactive Web site: www.cocorahs.org • Adds Greater Precipitation Report Density Across WA

• WANTED: (observer/square mile) – Currently over 1250 in state – Only 50 in Grays Harbor Co – Training Skywarn Spotter Reports

• NWS Warning Program

– “Ground Truth” – Reinforce current warning messages – Helps verify weather warnings and advisories • Transmitted to…..

– Local Emergency Management – Situation Awareness! – Media (TV, radio, newsprint, web sites) • Training – This Fall !!

– See weather.gov/seattle/ for training announcements NWS Products and Services Your Weather Support Partner

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Ted Buehner Warning Coordination Meteorologist NWS Seattle/Tacoma