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Blizzard of '96" Made Travel Nearly Impossible Over the Affected Area for Almost 48 Hours

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Blizzard of '96 2 cover: NOAA AVHRR-14 photograph on January 6, 1996. 3 4 PREFACE January 6-8, 1996, a major "nor'easter" paralyzed the Eastern Seaboard for the better part of a week. Right on the heels of a Federal Government shutdown that furloughed most Federal employees, some of the heaviest snow of the late 20th century blanketed the highly populated urban corridor from Washington, D.C., to Boston, Massachusetts. I believe the facts contained in this report speak for themselves concerning the quality of service that both the National Weather Service (NWS) and all of our partners in the hazards community provided to the public. Many NWS employees were stranded at or near the office for several days, working long hours and sleeping either on-site or at nearby hotels. A few risked their lives to get to work. Local emergency managers across the affected area commended local NWS offices for timely and accurate warnings, watches, and outlooks. Rigorous continuing coordination between NWS field offices, local emergency managers, and the media months in advance of the event ensured that clear lines of communication were already in place when the storm struck. The final result was that the warning system worked, enabling the public, local decision makers, and all weather sensitive interests to take timely actions to reduce the threats to life and property. Elbert W. Friday, Jr. December 1996 v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Preface .................................................................. ii Acronyms ............................................................... iv Service Assessment — National Implications ..................................... v Findings and Recommendations ............................................... viii Synoptic Overview .........................................................xii Chapter I The Event and Its Impact ........................................ 1 Chapter II Warning/Forecast Services and User Response ........................ 9 Chapter III Equipment Performance ........................................ 17 Chapter IV Forecaster Guidance .......................................... 19 Conclusion .............................................................. 31 Appendix A Meteorological Analysis ........................................A-1 vi ACRONYMS AFOS Automation of Field Operations and Services ASOS Automated Surface Observing System AWIPS Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System C Celsius CWA County Warning Area ECMWF European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting EMA Emergency Management Agency ERH Eastern Region Headquarters F Fahrenheit FAR False Alarm Rate HCH Hurricane Coordination Hotline HPC Hydrometeorological Prediction Center km kilometer kt knot mb millibar MRF Medium-Range Forecast MSLP Mean Sea Level Pressure NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction NEXRAD Next Generation Weather Radar NOS National Ocean Service NWR NOAA Weather Radio NWS National Weather Service NWSFO NEXRAD Weather Service Forecast Office NWSO NEXRAD Weather Service Office PNS Public Information Statement POD Probability of Detection QPF Quantitative Precipitation Forecast RDA Radar Data Acquisition UKMET United Kingdom Meteorological Office UTC Coordinated Universal Time VDOT Virginia Department of Transportation WSOM Weather Service Operations Manual WSR-88D Doppler Weather Surveillance Radars WSW Winter Storm Watch/Warning/Advisory vii SERVICE ASSESSMENT National Implications OFFICE OF METEOROLOGY PERSPECTIVE On January 6-8, 1996, a large portion of the eastern United States was struck by a major winter storm that buried the heavily populated Northeast Corridor under one of the greatest snowfalls of the 20th century. The metropolitan areas of Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston were virtually paralyzed as snowfalls of 19 to 31 inches were whipped into 5- to 8-foot snow drifts. In the mountains of western Virginia and West Virginia, 40- to 48-inch snowfalls were common. Hazards associated with the winter storm included blizzard conditions, strong winds, extreme wind chills, and minor to moderate coastal flooding. The storm caused over $500 million in insured losses, contributed to 60 fatalities, and shut down or hampered travel and commerce for 5 days after it ended. The storm was caused by a low pressure system that developed in the Gulf of Mexico on January 6. From there it moved northeastward along the East Coast, leaving a swath of snowfall in excess of 10 inches from eastern Kentucky northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic States into southern and central New England. NWS warnings and forecasts provided information with the types of lead times that enabled all levels of government, local decision makers, and businesses to make timely life and property decisions both before and during the event. For example, the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) began preparing for the storm four days before it hit, while the Governor of Virginia declared a state emergency before the first snow flake fell. Similarly, airlines moved their aircraft from East Coast cities so that they could be brought into service more quickly and not confound airport snow clearance procedures. On the large scale, forecast services were exceptional. Forecasters at the Hydro- meteorological Prediction Center (HPC), after analyzing guidance from the Environmental Modeling Center Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) model, the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMET) and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), provided NWS field offices with an early "heads up" concerning the potential development of a low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico. As early as January 1, they noted a systematic bias in the MRF model of too little amplitude and too much progressivity in the southern stream of the upper air flow. Over the next 2 to 3 days, this assessment proved to be accurate as HPC forecasters continued to add value to the numerical guidance. Given this numerical and HPC guidance, field forecasters throughout Eastern Region began to assess the effects that this storm would have upon their respective areas of responsibility. By January 3, they began to highlight the potential for a winter storm beginning late in the week over the Ohio Valley and spreading east over the weekend. As the viii event drew closer, output from subsequent numerical model runs continued to agree with that of earlier runs, allowing the offices to convey a more definitive message of the impending storm. Late in the afternoon on Friday, January 5, Winter Storm Watches were issued along the Eastern Seaboard for as far north as the Baltimore/Washington, D.C., area. Early Saturday morning, January 6, the watch area was extended northeastward across the New York City area to extreme southeastern New England. These watches had lead times of 24 to 36 hours. On the smaller time and space scales, however, there were some inaccuracies in NWS guidance and forecasts. Uncertainties in the storm track, noted in the medium-range guidance from several days earlier, continued with the shorter range guidance that was produced on Friday, January 5, and Saturday, January 6. Relatively small shifts in the storm track often cause large changes in the weather in certain critical areas, and this storm was no exception. As the weekend progressed and the storm began to track further north and west, the numerical and HPC guidance began to shift the forecast of the outer edge of the snow shield further north and west. This placed additional areas under the threat of heavy snow, including much of Ohio, northern Pennsylvania, southern New York, and more of southern and central New England. Forecasters in these areas had to play "catch up" by issuing Winter Storm Warnings with shorter lead times and forecasts with increased snowfall amounts. In some of these areas of low forecast certainty, forecasters in adjacent offices disagreed on forecast details which were not always sufficiently resolved prior to forecast issuances. With the Modernization and Associated Restructuring of the NWS, the boundaries between the forecast and county warning areas of adjacent NWS offices frequently do not coincide with state boundaries. Therefore, any differences in opinion between forecasters in adjacent offices can result in substantial forecast differences within a single state. This can be confusing to the media as well as state and local emergency planning officials. While the HPC and the NWS field offices along the coast had the advantage of being able to use the Hurricane Coordination Hotline (HCH) to accomplish internal coordination, noncoastal offices did not have this capability and were forced to resort to multiple one-on-one telephone calls with adjacent offices. This not only proved ineffective but most likely contributed to inconsistent forecasts in portions of the Ohio Valley. To facilitate effective internal warning and forecast coordination, conference call capability in all NWS field offices is essential. Storms of this magnitude are notorious for producing massive multistate power outages, and this one was no exception. Nonetheless, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and all field offices remained open and functional. Some equipment outages were reported. The most noteworthy included the loss of the Doppler Weather Surveillance Radars (WSR-88D) at Raleigh, North Carolina, and Blacksburg, Virginia, both of which, due to the depth of the snow, could not be accessed for repair until after the storm. Emergency managers
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