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National Weather Service Instruction 10-1601 November 3, 2005

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National Weather Service Instruction 10-1601 November 3, 2005 Department of Commerce $ National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration $ National Weather Service NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INSTRUCTION 10-1601 NOVEMBER 3, 2005 Operations and Services Performance, NWSPD 10-16 VERIFICATION PROCEDURES NOTICE: This publication is available at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/. OPR: OS52 (Charles Kluepfel) Certified by: OS5 (Kimberly Campbell) Type of Issuance: Routine SUMMARY OF REVISIONS: This directive supersedes National Weather Service Instruction 10-1601, dated April 10, 2004. The following changes have been made to this directive: 1) Introductory information on the legacy verification systems for public (section 1.1.1) and terminal aerodrome (section 6.1.1) forecasts has replaced outdated information in these sections. 2) The verification of fire weather forecasts (section 1.4) and red flag warnings (section 1.5) has been added. 3) Monthly preliminary reporting requirements for tornado and flash flood warning verification statistics have been discontinued and respectively removed from sections 2.1 and 4.1. 4) Rule 2, implemented January 1, 2002, for short-fused warnings, has been discontinued for all tornado/severe thunderstorm (section 2.1.2) and special marine (section 3.3.2) warnings issued after February 28, 2005. Once VTEC is implemented for flash flood warnings (section 4.1.2), Rule 2 will also be discontinued for all flash flood warnings issued after the change. 5) The time of warning issuance for tornado, severe thunderstorm and special marine warnings is taken from the Valid Time and Event Code (VTEC) line (sections 2.1.3 and 3.3.3). 6) The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) are now verified. All QPF verification is now done at 4- and 32-km resolution (section 5). 7) Stats on Demand (section 6.2) has replaced Aviation Verify (section 6.3) as the official terminal aerodrome forecast (TAF) verification tool. 8) Tropical cyclone verification procedures (section 7) have been updated. _______signed____________________________10/17/05__________ Dennis McCarthy Date Director, Office of Climate, Water, and Weather NWSI 10-1601 NOVEMBER 3, 2005 Verification Procedures Table of Contents: Page 1. Public and Fire Weather Forecast Verification Procedures.................................................... 4 1.1 Legacy Public Forecast Verification............................................................................... 4 1.1.1 Introduction............................................................................................................. 4 1.1.2 Elements..................................................................................................................5 1.2 Modernized Public Forecast Verification at Points ........................................................ 6 1.2.1 Verification Sites.................................................................................................... 6 1.2.2 Data Input............................................................................................................... 6 1.2.3 Projections .............................................................................................................. 6 1.2.4 Public Forecast Verification Reports...................................................................... 7 1.2.5 Elements..................................................................................................................7 1.3 National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Verification ............................................. 8 1.4 Fire Weather Forecast Verification................................................................................. 9 1.4.1 Verification Sites.................................................................................................... 9 1.4.2 Fire Weather Forecast Verification Reports ........................................................... 9 1.4.3 Elements................................................................................................................ 10 1.5 Red Flag Warnings (RFW) ........................................................................................... 10 1.5.1 Matching Warnings and Events............................................................................ 10 1.5.2 Determining Events and Warnings ....................................................................... 10 1.5.3 Extensions............................................................................................................. 11 1.5.4 Lead Time ............................................................................................................. 11 1.5.5 Reports .................................................................................................................. 11 1.6 Winter Storm Warnings ................................................................................................ 11 1.6.1 Matching Warnings and Events............................................................................ 12 1.6.2 Extensions............................................................................................................. 12 1.6.3 Lead Time ............................................................................................................. 14 1.6.4 Reports .................................................................................................................. 14 1.7 High Wind Warnings .................................................................................................... 15 1.7.1 Matching Warnings and Events............................................................................ 15 1.7.2 Extensions............................................................................................................. 15 1.7.3 Lead Time ............................................................................................................. 15 1.7.4 Reports .................................................................................................................. 15 2. Severe Weather Verification Procedures.............................................................................. 15 2.1 Warning Verification.................................................................................................... 15 2.1.1 Matching Warnings and Events............................................................................ 16 2.1.2 Quality Assurance Rules....................................................................................... 17 2.1.3 Lead Time ............................................................................................................. 18 2.1.4 Display of Verification Statistics.......................................................................... 19 2.1.5 Backup Mode for Warnings.................................................................................. 19 2.2 Watch Verification........................................................................................................ 19 3. Marine Forecast Verification Procedures ............................................................................. 19 2 NWSI 10-1601 NOVEMBER 3, 2005 3.1 Coded Marine Forecasts ............................................................................................... 19 3.1.1 Introduction........................................................................................................... 19 3.1.2 Verification Sites.................................................................................................. 20 3.1.3 Coded Forecast Format......................................................................................... 20 3.1.4 Computation and Display of Verification Statistics ............................................. 24 3.1.5 Verification Statistics............................................................................................ 25 3.2 Coastal Flood and Lakeshore Flood Warnings............................................................. 27 3.2.1 Matching Warnings and Events............................................................................ 27 3.2.2 Extensions............................................................................................................. 27 3.2.3 Lead Time ............................................................................................................. 27 3.2.4 Reports .................................................................................................................. 27 3.3 Special Marine Warnings (SMW) ................................................................................ 28 3.3.1 Matching Warnings and Events............................................................................ 28 3.3.2 Quality Assurance Rules....................................................................................... 28 3.3.3 Lead Time ............................................................................................................. 29 3.3.4 Display of Verification Statistics.......................................................................... 30 3.3.5 Backup Mode for Warnings.................................................................................. 30 4. Hydrologic Verification Procedures ..................................................................................... 30 4.1 Flash Flood Warnings................................................................................................... 30 4.1.1 Matching Warnings and Events...........................................................................
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