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Yooper Weather Review NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE, MICHIGAN 2019 Yooper Weather Review INSIDE THIS ISSUE Lake Michigan Water Levels......................... 5 Lake-Effect Snow ...... 6 Hydrology .................. 7 Review of 2019 Thun- derstorm Events ........ 9 New Staff……………… 11 SPECIAL POINTS OF INTEREST TOP 10 WEATHER EVENTS OF Get to know some of THE DECADE METEOROLOGIST, JON VOSS our favorite weather to forecast, the chal- If you follow us lenges we face and on Facebook, you more throughout the likely saw our Newsletter. countdown of the Become a Weather- Top 10 Weather Ready Nation Am- Events of the bassadors! More de- tails towards the end Decade (2010- of the newsletter. 2019)! On the next few pages we recap the count- down and discuss the #1 events. TOP 10 WEATHER EVENTS OF THE DECADE RECORD COLD WINTER OF 2013-2014 STATS Multiple cities across Upper Michigan experienced their record coldest four month stretch from Dec. 2013 through March 2014. Many of these locations also broke the record for sub-zero days that winter. NWS Marquette broke a record with 75 consecutive days at or below freezing from Dec. 6, 2013 through February 18, 2014. Ishpeming and Herman broke similar reports. Deep frost levels resulted in billions of dollars in damage to water and sewer mains, roads and other vital infrastructure across 9 of 15 Upper Michigan counties. Prolonged cold resulted in Lake Superior freezing over in early March 2014, with the highest ice cover- age since March 2003. Ice meas- uring 4 feet thick hampered ice breaking operations in the spring and caused damage to vessels. The thick ice cost the Great Lakes economy an estimated $705 mil- lion with nearly 7 million tons less freight hauled by U.S. cargo ships than the previous winter- spring shipping season. By mid- June 2014, ice was still observed on the lake. Limited evaporation due to the ice and continued above normal precipitation caused Lake Superior water levels to rebound, marking the beginning of a pro- longed near-record high levels. WHAT SPAKRED YOUR PASSION FOR WEATHER? “Cold, and what I thought was snowy, weather in my hometown of Duluth, MN.” - Jordan Wendt, Meteorologist FATHER’S DAY FLASH FLOODING 2018 3 to 7 inches of rain fell during the early morning hours of June 17, 2018. NWS Marquette issued their first ever Flash Flood Emergency. Catastrophic flash flooding occurred across much of Houghton County. According to the NOAA Precipitation Frequency Atlas, this event in- dicated a 1000-year recurrence interval. During the worst conditions, nearly all roads were impassable across central and northern Houghton County. Homes and businesses were flooded and sustained damage, includ- ing Michigan Tech., where the first floor of their Administrative Building flooded. Photo courtesy of Melissa Lubinski Photo courtesy of Photo courtesy of MSP Aerial Survey Michigan Tech Recovery efforts continued for several months after the flooding. Governor Rick Snyder declared a State of Disaster for Houghton County following the historic flooding, with damage estimates in the millions of dollars. That same weekend, prior to the Father’s Day flooding, Gogebic and Menominee counties also experienced flash flooding. LAKE MICHIGAN HIGH LAKE LEVEL FLOODING CONCERNS METEOROLOGIST, RYAN CONNELLY Anyone who’s driven on M-35 south of Es- much more of a risk than a wind blowing across the canaba, or gone fishing at Gladstone, or walked the lake. Slow-moving storms also pose much more of a boardwalk in Manistique knows this already: Lake risk than a fast-moving one. Michigan is high. Really high. In fact, the U.S. Army This storm actually did not have a very long Corps of Engineers reports that the Lake Michigan- fetch length, since the wind was mainly coming from Huron system is 3 feet above the long-term monthly the east. But it was a slow-moving storm, meander- average for December, which is tied for the all-time ing through northern Wisconsin for nearly 24 hours! record. This has led to two significant flooding events This allowed the water to build up throughout the along the Lake Michigan shoreline. Though both day, eventually to the point where it flooded numer- caused flooding, they were two very different events. ous homes and business from Gladstone and Es- The first happened Friday night, July 19, in canaba south to Cedar River and even as far south as Manistique. A complex of severe thunderstorms Menominee. Since Lake Michigan’s water levels pushed east through northern Wisconsin and just haven’t been this high since the mid-1980s, most clipped part of Menominee County before moving people could not remember a time when the Bay of out over northern Lake Michigan. This complex was Green Bay flooded because of a strong wind from the no ordinary summer thunderstorm, however. It was east. Lakeshore flooding along Lake Michigan re- so big and so strong that it created some weather of mained a problem into the winter, with a storm in its own. Specifically, it created a small-scale low November causing similar flooding. pressure area in its wake – known as a “wake low.” Thankfully no one was injured from this Winds quickly gusted to nearly 50 mph from flooding, and damage has been mostly minor. But places like Port Inland to Manistique and Escanaba – until Lake Michigan recedes again – and that could not with the thunderstorms, but after them! This take a few years! – this kind of lakeshore flooding may continue to happen from time to time. rapid increase in winds from the south pushed water into Manistique and Escanaba. The water rise signifi- cantly damaged the boardwalk in Manistique and flooded the parking lot of a brewery and winery, forc- ing it to close early – not good for business on a Fri- day night! The second Lake Michigan flood this year happened on Monday, October 21, along the Bay of Green Bay. A strong fall low pressure system moved from the central U.S. into northern Wisconsin and then slowly to the north across Lake Superior. What builds the waves with these big fall storm systems is not just the wind speed. It is also the fetch length – how much distance over water the wind is traveling – and the fetch duration – how Lake Michigan from Manistique during a fall high wave event. Photo courtesy of Jim Salzwedel much time the wind has been blowing over the water. A south wind blowing up the entire length of Lake Michigan from near Chicago to Manistique poses WHAT DO YOU LOVE MOST ABOUT THE WEATHER IN THE UPPER PENINSULA? 5 “The diversity of weather is what I enjoy. It truly is a 4-season environment! - Joe Phillips, Meteorologist LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FORECASTING & COMMUNICATION CHALLENGES METEOROLOGIST, JACLYN RITZMAN It is no secret that we receive our fair share of winter Without getting into the complex microphysical pro- weather here across the Upper Peninsula of Michi- cesses behind these LES events, often times we can gan! While we deal with a variety of different forcing say for near-certainly that, yes it is going to snow. mechanisms that each have their unique challenges However, sometimes the biggest challenge is where in forecasting and messaging of impacts, we’re most the heavier snow is going to develop and persist, and famous for our lake-effect snow (LES) events. While our entire snowpack isn’t solely made up of LES, it augments the snowpack, especially for of Lake Supe- rior Snowbelt communities. What makes the Upper Peninsula ideal for LES? Much like downstate, the majority of Upper Michi- gan shares a border with either Lake Superior or Lake Michigan. During the summer months, the Great Lakes slowly absorb incoming energy from the sun, ever-so slowly warming to on average 50-60°F on Lake Superior and 60-70°F on Lake Michigan by September/October. It is these relatively warm wa- ters that prime this region for LES season, especially through the fall and early winter months when cold air outbreaks spread across the Upper Great Lakes. “...small shifts in LES bands can lead to large changes in expectations and impacts.” Often times the challenges in forecasting and communicating lake-effect snow events boil down to where the heavier bands of lake-effect snow develop and how long they persist over a given location. While there are other factors that go into forecasting snowfall amounts (i.e. how fluffy the snow will be), one of the driving factor be- hind where lake-effect snow falls is related to the wind fields. How strong the winds are, and especially what direction they’re coming from. To maintain well-organized LES bands, we like to see steady, persistent winds that do not change much in direction over a given time and areal extent. Subtle changes in the wind direction from the surface up through nearly 8,000-10,0000+ feet above ground level can lead to small shifts in where LES bands remain persistent. However, these small shifts in LES bands can lead to large changes in expectations and impacts. An example of this was what occurred in early November, when a heavy-lake effect snow band forecast to graze the city of Marquette shifted 8 to 10 miles west, and thus brought more significant impacts to the city itself. Given the shape of Lake Superior and the typical patterns that bring us cold air advection, we typically see the development of multiple lake-effect snow bands, some stronger than others, with the impacts and expected snowfall amounts highly-variable over a given area. The important thing to remember during these types of situations is that these bands can wobble or shift around slightly, so you may find yourself in and out of the heavier lake-effect snow, especially if you’re out traveling.
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