1 Tornado and Tornado Dynamics Readings: Markowski And

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

1 Tornado and Tornado Dynamics Readings: Markowski And Tornado and Tornado Dynamics Readings: Markowski and Richardson book section 10.1. Klemp (1987) Dynamics of Tornadic Thunderstorms (handout) Bluestein Vol II. Section 3.4.8. Rotunno, R., 1986: Tornadoes and tornadogenesis. In: P. Ray (Editor), Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting. AMS, Boston, 414-436. Davie-Jones, Robert, R. J. Trapp, and H. B. Bluestein, 2001, Tornadoes and Tornadic Storms, In: C. A. Doswell (Editor), Severe Convective Storms, AMS, 167-222. Houze Sections 8.6-8. Definition: tornado, n. A rotating column of air usually accompanied by a funnel-shaped downward extension of a cumulonimbus cloud and having, ..[winds] whirling destructively at speeds of up to 300 miles per hour. (American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language) This definition reflects a fundamental property of the tornado: it occurs in association with a thunderstorm. Definition in Markowski and Richardson book: Tornadoes are violently rotating columns of air, usually associated with a swirling cloud of debris or dust near the ground and a funnel-shaped cloud extending downward from the base of the parent cumulonimbus updraft. 1 Wind Speed inside tornadoes Horizontal wind speeds in tornadoes can be as high as 100-150 m/s. There is some theoretical evidence that even stronger upward vertical velocities can occur near center of a tornado, near the ground. The maximum possible tornadic wind speed is a function not only of the hydrostatic-pressure deficit owing to latent-heat release in the updraft, which is a function of the CAPE, but also to the dynamic-pressure deficit, which is a function of the character of the wind field itself, especially in the surface boundary layer. Fujita Scale (F-scale) T. Fujita developed a wind speed scale to assess tornado damage and estimate the maximum tornado intensity. Called the F-scale, it was designed to link the Beaufort wind scale with the Mach scale. A Beaufort force of 12 (minimal hurricane force winds) was equal to F1, and F12 was equal to Mach 1 (the speed 3/2 of sound). The minimum wind speed (vmin in mph) of any F-scale range (F) was vmin = 14.1(F + 2) . 2 The Fujita Scale of Tornado Intensity F-Scale Intensity Wind Speed Type of Damage Done Number Phrase 40-72 mph Some damage to chimneys; breaks branches off trees; pushes over shallow-rooted trees; damages F0 Gale tornado (18-32m/s) sign boards. The lower limit is the beginning of hurricane wind speed; peels surface off roofs; mobile homes Moderate 73-112 mph F1 pushed off foundations or overturned; moving autos pushed off the roads; attached garages may tornado (33-50m/s) be destroyed. Significant 113-157 mph Considerable damage. Roofs torn off frame houses; mobile homes demolished; boxcars pushed F2 tornado (51-71m/s) over; large trees snapped or uprooted; light object missiles generated. Severe 158-206 mph Roof and some walls torn off well constructed houses; trains overturned; most trees in forest F3 tornado (72-93m/s) uprooted Devastating 207-260 mph Well-constructed houses leveled; structures with weak foundations blown off some distance; cars F4 tornado (94-117m/s) thrown and large missiles generated. Strong frame houses lifted off foundations and carried considerable distances to disintegrate; Incredible 261-318 mph F5 automobile sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 meters; trees debarked; steel tornado (118-143m/s) reinforced concrete structures badly damaged. These winds are very unlikely. The small area of damage they might produce would probably not be recognizable along with the mess produced by F4 and F5 wind that would surround the F6 Inconceivable 319-379 mph winds. Missiles, such as cars and refrigerators would do serious secondary damage that could not F6 tornado (144-170m/s) be directly identified as F6 damage. If this level is ever achieved, evidence for it might only be found in some manner of ground swirl pattern, for it may never be identifiable through engineering studies 3 Enhanced Fujita scale (EF-scale) In 2007, the enhanced Fujita scale (EF-scale) was adopted in the United States. It was designed to improve the accuracy of wind speed estimates derived from observed damage, in part, by attempting to account for the quality of construction. Tornadoes rated EF0–EF1, EF2–EF3, and EF4–EF5 are referred to as weak, strong, and violent tornadoes, respectively. EF0 (65–85 mph 3-s gusts) tornado damages include damage to chimneys, broken tree branches, and damage to sign boards. EF1 (86–110 mph 3-s gusts) tornado damages include destroyed garages or barns and peeled-off roofs. An EF2 (111–135 mph 3-s gusts) tornado may tear roofs off frame houses, obliterate mobile homes, and snap or uproot large trees. EF3 (136–165 mph 3-s gusts) tornadoes destroy interior walls of well-constructed homes. EF4 (166–200 mph 3-s gusts) tornadoes are capable of completely leveling a well-built home. An EF5 (>200 mph 3-s gusts) tornado strips clean the foundation of a well-built structure and is capable of throwing automobiles over 100 m. Any estimation of tornado strength based on damage is error-prone for a number of reasons, including variations in the duration of extreme winds and debris loading within a tornado, not to mention the fact that many tornadoes do not strike man-made structures. Furthermore, EF-scale (and F-scale) ratings are based on the maximum damage observed. Even the most intense tornado that one might expect to be able to observe, an EF5, typically only contains EF5 winds within a region occupying less than 10% of the total path area. 4 References: WSEC, 2006: A recommendation for an enhanced Fujita scale (EF-scale). Texas Tech University Wind Science and Engineering Center Rep., 95 pp. [Available online at www.depts.ttu.edu/weweb/pubs/fscale/efscale.pdf.] Roger Edwards, James G. LaDue, John T. Ferree, Kevin Scharfenberg, Chris Maier, and William L. Coulbourne, 2013: Tornado Intensity Estimation: Past, Present, and Future. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 641–653. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00006.1 5 Relationship between severity of observed thunderstorms and the CAPE and vertical wind shear of the environments, as determined by proximity soundings. Red dots indicate tornado reports. Grey dots indicate non-tornadic damaging wind and/or large hail reports. Black dots indicate non-severe thunderstorm reports. Adapted from a figure in Brooks et al. (2003). 6 Average number of days per year having environments favorable for tornadic supercells were convection to form. Such conditions include the presence of strong shear over a deep tropospheric layer and CAPE (these are the conditions required for supercells), as well as strong low-level shear and high boundary layer relative humidity. The above synthetic climatology of tornadic supercell days, which is based on analyses obtained from the global reanalysis program, is shown instead of actual tornadic supercell or tornado reports because of the lack of reliable reports over the vast majority of the earth. (From Brooks et al. [2003].) 7 Tornado Climatology in the US Tornadoes in the United States are reported most frequently in a band stretching from West and North Texas through Oklahoma, central and eastern Kansas, and into eastern Nebraska. This region is referred to as tornado alley. 8 9 The elevated terrain to the west and southwest of the Great Plains and the Gulf of Mexico play important roles in producing soundings having high amounts of CAPE. The sloping terrain is partially responsible for the lee trough and low-level jet, the latter which advects the Gulf marine layer northward, while warm dry air caps the moist layer. The ubiquitous dryline and fronts approaching from the north and northwest are frequent locations of storm formation. Most tornadoes occur during the late afternoon and evening hours in the late spring. This suggests that solar heating plays an important role in producing a potentially unstable environment for tornadic storm formation during the afternoon. Major outbreaks occur primarily during the spring, when strong disturbances in the middle and upper troposphere promote regions of strong lifting and an environment of strong vertical shear and high values of CAPE. Tornadic activity begins along the Gulf States in late winter, and migrates northward, so that summer activity is highest in the Northern Plains. Environments for tornado outbreaks in the United States have been produced as far east as the East Coast. Tornado outbreaks in late spring and early summer are often associated with short waves moving through northwesterly flow aloft, as a ridge is built up to the west and a trough is ensconced to the east. In spring, outbreaks usually occur in southwesterly flow aloft, downstream from major troughs. 10 Relation of tornadoes to supercell storms Although not all supercell storms produce tornadoes, most of the intense tornadoes are generated by them. In a radar study of Oklahoma storms during 1971-1975, for example, Burgess (1976) found that 62% of the 37 storms that exhibited strong storm-scale rotation developed tornadoes while none occurred in storms which did not rotate. = 11 Tornadogenesis Generation of large vertical vorticity at ground Tornadogenesis requires that large vertical vorticity arises at the ground. If no preexisting vertical vorticity is negligible near the ground, then vorticity stretching near the ground is initially negligible and vertical vorticity must first arise either from the tilting of horizontal vorticity or from advection toward the surface from aloft. Tilting by the horizontal vertical velocity gradients associated with an updraft alone is not effective at producing vertical vorticity near the surface because air is rising away from the surface as horizontal vorticity is tilted into the vertical.
Recommended publications
  • The Fujita Scale Is Used to Rate the Intensity of a Tornado by Examining the Damage Caused by the Tornado After It Has Passed Over a Man-Made Structure
    The Fujita Scale is used to rate the intensity of a tornado by examining the damage caused by the tornado after it has passed over a man-made structure. The "Percentage of All Tornadoes 1950- 1994" pie chart reveals that the vast majority of tornadoes are either weak or do damage that can only be attributed to a weak tornado. Only a small percentage of tornadoes can be correctly classed as violent. Such a chart became possible only after the acceptance of the Fujita Scale as the official classification system for tornado damage. It is quite possible that an even higher percentage of all tornadoes are weak. Each year the National Weather Service documents about 1000 tornado touchdowns in the United States. There is evidence that 1000 or more additional weak tornadoes may occur each year and go completely undocumented. The "Percentage of Tornado-Related Deaths 1950-1994" pie chart shows that while violent tornadoes are few in number, they cause a very high percentage of tornado-related deaths. The Tornado Project has analyzed data prior to 1950, and found that the percentage of deaths from violent tornadoes was even greater in the past. This is because the death tolls prior to the introduction of the forecasting/awareness programs were enormous: 695 dead(Missouri-Illinois-Indiana, March 18, 1925); 317 dead(Natchez, Mississippi, May 7, 1840);.255 dead(St. Louis, Missouri and East St. Louis, Illinois, May 27, 1896); 216 dead(Tupelo, Mississippi, April 5, 1936); 203 dead(Gainesville, GA, April 6, 1936). In more recent times, no single tornado has killed more than 50 people since 1971.
    [Show full text]
  • Temperature Change and Its Effects on the Great Lakes Climate
    Temperature Change and its Effects on the Great Lake’s Climate. Ross Ellet Professor: Matthew Huber April 28, 2005 Temperature change and its effects on the Great Lakes climate. The Great Lakes create a very unique sub climate zone that is unlike most areas in the world. The Great Lakes act as a climate moderator. They contain some of the biggest fresh water lakes in the world. This allows temperature moderation to occur. Typically the lakes keep the eastward coastlines more humid. Since there is more humidity, clouds are more frequent. Thus the temperature fluctuation on a daily basis is a little less than areas not affected by the Great Lakes. This in turn affects the precipitation that falls, when it falls, and where it falls. In the winter time the cold air masses blow over the relatively warm water which creates lake-effect snowfall. This is a very important social and economical impact the climate has on the Great Lakes region. So what happens when a climate change occurs in this area? What types of impacts will it have on the Great Lakes region? Will it be any different than those areas directly west of the Great Lakes? Theory and Research Aral Sea In order to understand climate change in the Great Lakes, first one must understand the dynamics of what is already occurring. The Great Lakes is unlike most lakes in the world due to its size, power, and potential to affect climate. However, there is another body of water that is just as significant. The Aral Sea, which is located in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, is an important tool to see how much a large body of water affects climate.
    [Show full text]
  • Ref. Accweather Weather History)
    NOVEMBER WEATHER HISTORY FOR THE 1ST - 30TH AccuWeather Site Address- http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=7074 West Henrico Co. - Glen Allen VA. Site Address- (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AccuWeather.com Forums _ Your Weather Stories / Historical Storms _ Today in Weather History Posted by: BriSr Nov 1 2008, 02:21 PM November 1 MN History 1991 Classes were canceled across the state due to the Halloween Blizzard. Three foot drifts across I-94 from the Twin Cities to St. Cloud. 2000 A brief tornado touched down 2 miles east and southeast of Prinsburg in Kandiyohi county. U.S. History # 1861 - A hurricane near Cape Hatteras, NC, battered a Union fleet of ships attacking Carolina ports, and produced high tides and high winds in New York State and New England. (David Ludlum) # 1966 - Santa Anna winds fanned fires, and brought record November heat to parts of coastal California. November records included 86 degrees at San Francisco, 97 degrees at San Diego, and 101 degrees at the International airport in Los Angeles. Fires claimed the lives of at least sixteen firefighters. (The Weather Channel) # 1968 - A tornado touched down west of Winslow, AZ, but did little damage in an uninhabited area. (The Weather Channel) # 1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in central Arizona produced hail an inch in diameter at Williams and Gila Bend, and drenched Payson with 1.86 inches of rain. Hannagan Meadows AZ, meanwhile, was blanketed with three inches of snow. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the Ohio Valley. Afternoon highs of 76 degrees at Beckley WV, 77 degrees at Bluefield WV, and 83 degrees at Lexington KY were records for the month of November.
    [Show full text]
  • Midwest to Northeast U.S. Winter Storm 12-13 March, 2014 By: Kwan-Yin Kong, WPC Meteorologist
    Midwest to Northeast U.S. Winter Storm 12-13 March, 2014 By: Kwan-yin Kong, WPC meteorologist Meteorological Overview: A fast-moving winter storm brought a swath of significant snowfall from the Midwest eastward through the lower Great Lakes and across northern New England during the second week of March 2014 (fig. 1 and 2). The storm was a consequence of baroclinic development as a progressive upper-level trough from the Pacific merged with a shortwave trough dropping southeastward from central Canada. The surface low pressure center of the storm can be tracked back to the foothills in northern Wyoming on 10 March when the Pacific upper trough began to move off the Rockies into the High Plains (fig. 1). At this time, the upper-level shortwave trough was beginning to head southward from central Canada but was still quite far away from the surface low center. With a lack of upper-level support, the surface low deepened very slowly along a nearly stationary front while moving east-southeastward across the central plains. By 11 March, the shortwave trough and the associated cold air mass was moving into the Upper Midwest and approached the low pressure system in the central plains (fig. 3a, b). As the two systems merged over the Midwest early on 12 March, a new low pressure center formed near the Illinois-Indiana border and began to intensify rapidly under a favorable baroclinic environment (fig. 3c, d). Precipitation with embedded thunderstorms formed north of the surface low and became heavy at times as the coverage expanded rapidly to the east-northeast into the lower Great Lakes and New England during the day on 12 March (fig.
    [Show full text]
  • April 3, 1974 Super Outbreak Poster
    Overview Across Indiana The Super Tornado Outbreak on April 3-4, 1974 was Twenty-one tornadoes affected 46 counties causing the worst tornado outbreak in United States history. one of Indiana’s worst tornado outbreak. Many of these Within a 16-hour period, 148 tornadoes touched down tornadoes traveled at nearly a mile a minute, and across 13 states from the Great Lakes to the Southeast. several were visually observed to have multiple When the storms finally dissipated, 330 people were funnels. killed, over 6,000 were injured, and thousands more The tornado devastation started in Boone county were left homeless. The damage path created by this when a brief F2 tornado touched down around 9:30 am tragic event covered 2,500 miles across the Midwest EST on April 3, 1974. The main event, however, with damage costs totaling around 600 million dollars. commenced in Indiana later that day at 2:20 pm EST Tornado damage at the Monticello court house (left) and throughout and lasted until 8:00 pm EST as 20 additional tornadoes the town of Monticello, IN (right). ripped through the state. Courtesy of the Monticello Herald Journal IN Counties Affected by Tornadoes Among the most destructive Indiana tornados was (Storm Prediction Center, Significant Tornadoes by T.P. Grazulis & the Monticello tornado. This half mile wide F4 tornado Superoutbreak 1974 map by T.T. Fujita) Summary tracked from just northwest of Lafayette through The Super Tornado Outbreak of April 3-4, 1974 Monticello to north of Fort Wayne killing 19 people. It will always be remembered by those who Tornado Strength had a path length of 121 miles which was the longest F0 – Blue witnessed and survived the event.
    [Show full text]
  • NWSI 10-315, Marine Weather Message, Dated August 20, 2018
    Department of Commerce • National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration • National Weather Service NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INSTRUCTION 10-315 FEBRUARY 11, 2020 Operations and Services Marine and Coastal Weather Services, NWSPD 10-3 MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NOTICE: This publication is available at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/. OPR: W/AFS26 (D. Wright) Certified by: W/AFS26 (D. Wright) Type of Issuance: Routine SUMMARY OF REVISIONS: This directive supersedes NWSI 10-315, Marine Weather Message, dated August 20, 2018. This directive includes the following changes: 1. Marine Hazard products issued under the Marine Weather Message (MWW) have changed their format and Small Craft Advisories have been consolidated into one product. See Service Change Notice 19-83 for more information: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn18-83hazsimp_marineaab.pdf 2. Figures 1a, 1b, 2a, 2b, and 3 were all updated with the new format. 3. Removed the “Overview Section” for the Watch, Warning and Advisory sections. 4. Updated sections 1, 5.2.2.1, 5.3.4, 5.3.4.1, 6.2.2.1, 6.3.4, 6.3.4.1, 7.2.2.1, 7.3.3.1 with the new format. 5. Table 5. was also updated with the consolidation of Small Craft Advisory to a single product. 6. Updated Appendix A with examples with the new format. Signed 01/28/2020 Andrew D. Stern Date Director Analyze, Forecast and Support Office 1 NWSI 10-315 FEBRUARY 11, 2020 Marine Weather Message Table of Contents Page 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 4 2 Marine Weather Event ..................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Marine Weather Event Beginning Time ...............................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Quarterly Climate Impacts and Outlook Great Lakes Region
    Quarterly Climate Impacts Great Lakes Region and Outlook December 2016 Great Lakes Significant Events - for September - November 2016 Fall 2016 was unseasonably warm across the entire Great Lakes basin. In the U.S., Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin experienced their warmest fall season in 122 years of records, while it was the 2nd warmest for Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. In Ontario, Toronto, Hamilton, Gore Bay, and Sudbury also experienced their warmest fall on record. Despite a few noteworthy precipitation events, conditions in the Great Lakes were generally dry over the past three months, the exception being Lake Superior, where water supplies were slightly above average. This was offset by high Lake Superior outflows, and dry conditions elsewhere resulted in all lakes declining more than average during the fall. The Windsor area in southwestern Ontario was deluged by a significant rainfall event from September 28-30. The Windsor airport reported over 110 mm (4.3 in) from the event, while volunteer rain gauge reports just north of the airport in Tecumseh measured amounts in excess of 190 mm (7.5 in). Strong gale-force winds raced across the Great Lakes on November 19-20. Marquette, Michigan reported gusts of 80-97 km/hr (50-60 mph), resulting in very large waves of over 7 m (24 ft) on the southeastern shoreline of Lake Superior. Strong westerly winds over Lake Erie produced a storm surge event, raising the water level by 0.6 m (2 ft) on the eastern edge by Buffalo, New York and dropping the water level by 0.8 m (2.5 ft) at the western edge by Toledo, Ohio.
    [Show full text]
  • Lightning Wind Tornado Facts & Tips Columbia County
    Early Warning & Preparedness Lightning A High Wind Watch indicates sustained Wind winds of a least 40 mph or gusts of 50 mph are expected. Tornado A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are ripe that a severe storm could occur. Facts & A Tornado Watch means conditions are ripe that a tornado could develop. Tips A Severe Thunderstorm Warning means a storm is imminent or has begun. A Tornado Warning means a tornado has reportedly touched down or rotation has been spotted on radar. A NOAA Weather Radio can be purchased at most stores that sell electronics products. They can be set so an alarm goes off if a storm warning is issued by the National Weather Service for your county. A Family Emergency Plan should be developed which includes the protective Rear 26 West First Street actions that family members must take Columbia Bloomsburg, PA 17815 when a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning has been issued by the National Phone (570) 389-5720 County Weather Service. Visit www.readypa.org Fax (570) 784-2975 or www.ready.gov or our web site for addi- tional information. TDD (570) 784-6300 EMA ema.columbiapa.org Lightning During thunderstorms, avoid using the Tornado telephone or electrical appliances. Lightning results from the buildup and Class Strength Wind Speed Power surges from lightning strikes discharge of electrical energy between positively and negatively charged have been known to damage air EF0 Weak 65-85 mph conditioners, TV’s, refrigerators and areas. An invisible channel of electri- computers. EF1 Gale 86-110 mph cally charged air moves from a cloud to the ground.
    [Show full text]
  • Tornado Fujita Scale F0: 40-72 Mph: Gale Tornado
    Huntingdon County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Appendix C – Hazard Profiles Tornado Fujita Scale F0: 40-72 mph: Gale Tornado. Light Damage: Some damage to chimneys; breaks General twigs and branches off tress; pushes over shallow-rooted trees; damages signboards; some windows broken; hurricane wind speed begins at 73 mph. Tornados may occur in F1: 73-112 mph: Moderate Tornado. Moderate damage: Peels surfaces off roofs; Pennsylvania during the spring mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned; outbuildings demolished; moving autos pushed off the roads; trees snapped or broken. and summer months. In the past 125 years, records show that F2: 113-157 mph: Significant Tornado. Considerable damage: Roofs torn off frame houses; mobile homes demolished; frame houses with weak foundations lifted and about 250 tornados have been moved; boxcars pushed over; large trees snapped or uprooted; light-object missiles reported in 58 of the 67 counties in generated. Pennsylvania. The National F3: 158-206 mph: Severe Tornado. Severe damage: Roofs and some walls torn off Weather Service estimates the well-constructed houses; trains overturned; most trees in forests uprooted; heavy cars Commonwealth will experience 10 lifted off the ground and thrown; weak pavement blown off roads. tornados annually. Tornados are F4: 207-260 mph: Devastating Tornado. Devastating damage: Well constructed measured by wind speeds on the homes leveled; structures with weak foundations blown off some distance; cars thrown and disintegrated; large missiles generated; trees in forest uprooted and carried some Fujita Scale. distance away. F5: 261-318 mph: Incredible Tornado. Incredible damage: Strong frame houses lifted As stated by the National Climatic off foundations and carried considerable distance to disintegrate; automobile-sized Data Center (NCDC), “wind missiles fly through the air in excess of 300 ft (100 m); trees debarked; incredible speeds in tornados range from phenomena will occur.
    [Show full text]
  • Section Has Been Developed from the Following Sources
    3.7 - Winter Storm Hazard Profile Though not as highly ranked as a number of other hazards at the State level, winter storms and blizzards constitute an important hazard of Local concern because of their frequency and drain on Local response resources. The profile outlined in this section has been developed from the following sources: Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC) based at Cornell University. A review of the climatic conditions of New York State, and their effects upon persons, property, and economics, this document was obtained from the following Cornell University web site http://nysc.eas.cornell.edu/climate_of_ny.html. The Center is a partner of the National Climatic Data Center. The NRCC contact person is Keith Eggleston. NOAA Satellite and Information Services and National Climate Data Center. http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~storms . This web-based database maintains the records for many types of disasters dating back to 1950, and allows users to make queries by state, disaster type, time period, etc. Situation Reports issued by the NYS Emergency Management Office (SEMO). These reports outline the occurrence of significant winter storms as they have occurred within the State. Erie County All-Hazard Mitigation Plan The following chart provides the definition of a winter storm: Term Definition Includes ice storms, blizzards, and can be accompanied by extreme cold. The National Weather Service characterizes blizzards as being Winter Storm combinations of winds in excess of 35 miles per hour with considerable falling or blowing snow, which frequently reduces visibility. Winter storm hazards in New York State are virtually guaranteed yearly since the State is located at relatively high latitudes and resulting winter temperatures range between 0 degree F and 32 degree F for a good deal of the period from late October until mid-April.
    [Show full text]
  • The Never Ending Gale: Its Role in Captain Robert F. Scott and His Companions’ Deaths
    The Never Ending Gale: its Role in Captain Robert F. Scott and his Companions’ Deaths Krzysztof Sienicki Chair of Theoretical Physics of Naturally Intelligent Systems ul. Topolowa 19, 05-807 Podkowa Leśna, Poland, EU [email protected] (14 September 2011) Abstract Polar historians and enthusiasts are aware that toward the end of March 1912, Captain Robert F. Scott reported in his journal a meteorological event, which was extraordinary as far as its length and strength was concerned. This event was the gale which according to Captain Scott, lasted nine/ten days. Were the laws of physics suspended at the end of March 1912 in the Antarctic? I have shown that the near surface winds in the Antarctic are self-organized critically and that the winds over the continent form an ergodic system. I have presented an analysis of wind events in the proximity of Captain Scott’s camp and at Ross Island. By com- paring wind events at these locations, and performing an analysis of a gale’s wind duration and strength at One Ton Depôt, I con- cluded that Captain Scott’s wind record was highly inaccurate. I concluded that the nine/ten day gale described by Captain Scott, that lasted from March 21 to 29, did not take place. This result combined with my previous analysis of Captain Scott’s tempera- ture record, shows that two black swan meteorological events: February 27-March 19, 1912 – Extreme Cold Snap and March 21- 29, 1912 – Never Ending Gale reported by Captain Scott, did not take place. Therefore, I conclude that the deaths of Scott, Wilson and Bowers were a matter of choice rather than chance.
    [Show full text]
  • Warning/Advisory Criteria
    WARNING/ADVISORY CRITERIA Definitions: Watch – Conditions are favorable for weather hazard to occur. Prepare for warnings to be issued. Warning – Event is imminent, occurring close by, or, in the case of a winter storm/hurricane, has a high likelihood of occurrence. Take action to protect life and property. Marine Wind/Wave Criteria Headline Chesapeake Bay Currituck Sound & Maryland/Virginia/NC Virginia Rivers Coastal Waters Small Craft Advisory (use top of wind and seas range) 18-33 Kt/4+ Ft 18-33 Kt/None 25-33 Kt/5+ Ft Gale Warning 34-47 Kt Storm Warning ≥48 Kt Special Marine Warning (SMW) Thunderstorm winds ≥34 Kt; hail ≥¾” and/or waterspouts High Surf Advisory N/A N/A Surf 8 Ft Near Shore 10 Ft/10 second period 12 Ft/10 second period ** (** = Duration >12 hrs) Public Products Warning/Advisory Thresholds Warning/Advisory (Product ID) Snow Freezing Rain Combination of winter hazards Winter Storm Warning * (WSW) Average of forecast. range: At least 1/4" of Hazards judged to pose a threat to life MD/Interior VA 5"/24 hr or 4"/12 hr ice accretion (all and property NC/SE VA 4"/24 hr or 3"/12 hr areas) Sleet – 1”+ (all areas) Winter Weather Advisory * (WSW) Avg. of fcst range at least: Any accretion Hazards cause A significant 1-2" VA/MD/NC on sidewalks inconvenience, and warrant extra Sleet - .25” to 1” roadways caution Blizzard Warning (WSW) Sustained wind or frequent gusts ≥35 mph AND considerable blowing/drifting of snow/falling snow reducing visibilities frequently < 1/4 mile for > 3 hours Wind Chill Advisory (WSW) Wind Chill Index ≤ 0o F Wind Chill Warning (WSW) Wind Chill Index ≤ -15o F Frost Advisory (NPW) Issued at the end (fall) or beginning (spring) of the growing season when frost is expected, but severity not sufficient to warrant a freeze warning.
    [Show full text]