Index
Page numbers in italics refer to tables and ‹gures.
Abdolali, Nasrin, 125, 129, 136 Aron, Raymond, 225 Achen, Christopher H., 253n. 8 Art, Robert J., 172, 174, 178, Afghanistan, 106 255–56n. 8, 256nn. 9–11 Africa, 38, 45, 247n. 8, 251n. 9 Asia, 17, 37, 45, 112, 227, 251n. 9 Central, 113, 233–35 East, 42, 43, 112, 113, 176–77, 179, East, 39, 113, 233–35 233–35, 232, 248n. 15, 256nn. Southern, 113, 233–35, 251n. 8 10, 11 West, 113, 233–35, 251n. 8 North, 113 Albertini, Luigi, 31, 247n. 7 South, 112, 113, 179, 233–35, Albright, Madeline, 255n. 7 249n. 6 Aldrich, John, 76 Southeast, 100, 106, 112, 113, 179, Algeciras, Conference at (1906), 29 233–35 Allen, Artis Frances, 49 Australia. See Oceania and Australia Alliance portfolios, 107–8, 109 Austria, 111 Alliances, 76, 84, 86, 104, 116, 128, Austria-Hungary, 29–31, 38, 111, 131 229, 247nn. 6, 7. See also Haps- as an element of regional ties, 114, burgs 175, 231, 255n. 3 economic power of, 29, 30, 91– Altfeld, M. F., 107 92 Amemiya, Takeshi, 241, 257n. 1 foreign trade, 34 America geopolitical (regional) interests, Central, and the Caribbean, 113, 108, 227 233–35, 252n. 13 military power of, 29, 91 North, 99, 113, 233–35 national capabilities of, 89–90 South, 99, 113, 233–35, 251n. 5 population (ethnic composition), Anglo-Japanese alliance (1902–22), 30–31, 247n. 5 43 quali‹cations as major power, Anglo-Russian frictions (1920–23), 29–31 249n. 6 Angola, 175 Bairoch, Paul, 30, 36 Anselin, Luc, 101 Balfour, Arthur James, 103 Arbetman, Marina, 88 Balkans, 20, 106, 108, 111, 171, 173
281 282 Index
Balance of power. See also Power Castlereagh, Robert Stewart, 27, 75, balance 246n. 1 notions of, 72–74, 104 Chan, Steve, 253n. 4, 253–54n. 10 policy, 72, 74–75 Charles V, Holy Roman Emperor theory, 11, 26, 71–72, 78–79, 84, (Charles I, king of Spain), 29 86, 97, 98, 250n. 1 Chase-Dunn, Christopher K., 78, 83 Balancing vs. bandwagoning, 74–75, Chaumont, Treaty of (1814), 28 176 China, 35, 42, 44–45, 100, 171, 173, Barbieri, Katherine, 257n. 2 179, 248nn. 16, 17, 249n. 5 Beasley, W. G., 42, 43, 248n. 16 economic power of, 30, 45, 91–92 Bennett, D. Scott, 11, 53, 60–61, 241, foreign trade, 34, 45, 232, 234–35 249n. 4 geopolitical (regional) interests, Berlin, 13 45, 177, 179 Betts, Richard K., 16, 53, 58, 157, as global contender, 229 166, 256n. 11 military power of, 91 Bismarck, Otto von, 35, 100, 176–77 national capabilities of, 89–90, 90 Blainey, Geoffrey, 78, 84 as nuclear power, 45 Blechman, Barry M., 173 quali‹cations as major power, Bolshevik Revolution, 37, 249n. 5 44–45, 228 Bosnia-Herzegovina, 175, 247n. 5 Churchill, Winston, 3, 75 Bosworth, R. J. B., 38, 39 Clark, Grover, 32 Boulding, Kenneth E., 102 Claude, Inis L., Jr., 72 Boxer Rebellion (1900–1901), 249n. Clinton, William J., 172, 255nn. 5, 7 5 Cohen, Saul B., 99–100, 105–6, 112, Brecher, Michael, 76, 183, 251–52n. 144, 165 10 Cohen, William S., 255n. 6 Bremer, Stuart A., 20, 26, 85, 129, Cold War, 7, 13, 22, 25, 33, 36, 38, 253–54n. 10 41, 42, 44, 46, 53, 90, 103–4, Brodie, Bernard, 246n. 13 112, 128, 144, 155, 167, 172–73, Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, 11, 57, 180, 229, 249n. 5, 251n. 6. See 77, 85–87, 97, 102, 107–8, also Containment policy; 126–27, 129, 145, 249n. 3, 252n. United States, Cold War policy 11, 253nn. 6, 7, 254n. 4 Colonial possessions, 112, 114, 115, Bulow, Bernhard von, 35 231, 233 Commitments, 12 Camilleri, Joseph, 45 concept of, 15 Campbell, Sally Howard, 126 interdependent, 13, 14, 17, 154–55, Capability 168, 172, 177, 245n. 8, 254n. 5, measurement of, 86–88 255n. 7 (see also Commitment as a requirement for effective theory) deterrence, 3, 8, 10–12, 21, 98 Commitment strategies. See Signal- Caprivi, Leo von, 35 ing in deterrence Carlson, Lisa J., 246n. 9 Commitment theory, xiii, 13–17, 53, Carter, Ashton B., 255–56n. 8 143, 172, 245–46n. 8 Index 283
assumptions of, 13–16, 24, 154–55, Commitments; Domestic audi- 171 ence costs; Inherent credibility) critiques of, 12–13, 17–18, 170 de‹nition of, 12, 56 ‹ndings on, 16–17, 156–58, 160, nuclear (see Nuclear deterrence) 168–69 outcomes, 56–60, 57, 61, 133, and interdependent commitments 163–64, 236, 239, 242, 249n. 6, (see Commitments, interdepen- 257n. 2 dent) study of, 4, 47, 58, 143, 179 intraregional version of, 158– success vs. failure, 47, 49–51, 54, 60 55, 55–59, 163–64, 236, 248n. 1 and “sink-cost” strategy, 15, 24, theory, 7–19, 48 160 Deterrence, types of, 49, 51–52, 60 Concert of Europe, 27, 246n. 1 direct (basic), 52, 53, 56, 98, 245n. Containment policy, 3, 14, 41, 101, 4 103, 245n. 1, 251n. 5 direct-immediate (see Direct- Correlates of War Project (COW), immediate deterrence failures 115, 247n. 10, 253n. 7 between major powers, cases of) COW Composite Index of extended (see Extended deter- National Capabilities, 86, rence) 87–89, 89–90, 90, 96–97, 146, extended-immediate (see 165, 229–30, 250n. 4 Extended-immediate deterrence) Costly signals, 9, 13, 15, 17, 143, 154. general, 47, 52, 54–56, 55, 124, See also Signaling in deterrence 131, 145, 252n. 14 (see also Gen- effects on deterrence outcomes, eral deterrence failure) 158, 160–62, 169 (see also immediate, 47, 52, 54–56, 55, 59, War) 124, 131, 145, 252n. 14 measurement of, 155, 254n. 4 Deutsch, Karl W., 76 Cretan Insurrection (1897), 249n. 5 Diehl, Paul, 102, 106, 108, 144, Crimean War (1854–56), 29, 37 251nn. 3, 9 Diesing, Paul, 18, 19, 22, 58, 110, Danilovic, Vesna, 87 168 de Gaulle, Charles, 7 Diplomatic permanent exchanges, Democratic peace, 124, 125–32, 133, 112, 114–15, 231 134, 136, 253n. 4 Direct-immediate deterrence failure De Soysa, Indra, 85, 88 between major powers, cases of, Deterrence 60–61, 68, 164, 183, 224 between major powers (see Major Discrete choice models, 236–43, power deterrence) 257nn. 1, 3, 257–58n. 5. See also and compellence, 15, 48–49 Logit models concept of, 61, 77, 248n. 2 Dixon, William J., 16, 57, 126–27, conditions to work, xiii, 3–5, 9–10, 129–30, 249n. 3, 253n. 7 20, 92, 98, 143, 150 Dobbs, Michael, 255n. 7 credibility of, xiii–xiv, 4, 10, Dogger Bank episode (1904), 190, 12–19, 22, 47, 166–67 (see also 249n. 5 284Index
Domestic audience costs. See also Eastern, 100, 106, 107–8, 111–12, Domestic regime type 113, 233–35, 251n. 5 ‹ndings on, 136, 139, 152 Western, 36, 107–8, 111–12, 113, as a function of domestic regime 233–35, 251n. 5 type, 23, 125, 127, 131, 132, Extended deterrence, 7, 110, 133, 167 139, 140, 144, 160, 164, 171. See theory of, 23–24, 128, 130–32, 140, also Extended-immediate deter- 168 rence and threat credibility, 15, 19, 21, de‹nition of, xiii, 52, 54, 245n. 4 23–24, 124–25, 130–32, 140, ‹ndings on (see Costly signals; 144, 167–68, 252–53n. 3, 253n. 9 Domestic regime type; Past and “tie-hands” strategy, 15–16, behavior; Power balance; 156 Regional interests) Domestic regime type. See also and major wars, 20, 53 Domestic audience costs; study of, 19, 52–54, 58–59, 98 Regime similarity Extended-immediate deterrence effect on deterrence attempts, 116, (EID), 57, 59, 68, 155, 236. See 150–51 also Extended deterrence effect on deterrence outcomes, criteria for selecting cases, 59, 61, 133–40, 151–52, 154, 160, 249n. 5 167–68, 178, 252n. 1 (see also de‹nition of, 56 War) signi‹cance for studying, 61 measurement of, 132–33, 254n. 11 Extended-immediate deterrence Domino theory, 14, 16, 17, 25, 171, between major powers, cases of, 172–73, 255n. 7 60–61, 66–67, 68, 164, 183–210, Domke, William K., 228 250n. 5, 254n. 3 Donaldson, Robert H., 38 Delagoa Bay and Jameson Raids Doran, Charles F., 84 (1895–96), 66, 183–84 Dougherty, James E., 11, 246n. 13 Kiao-Chow, German seizure of Doyle, Michael, 125–26, 253–54n. 10 (1897), 66, 184–85 Duroselle, Jean B., 226 Niger dispute (1897–98), 66, 185–86 EC-121 spy plane incident (1969), Anglo-Russian crisis (1898–99), 249n. 5 66, 186 Egypt, 108, 111 Fashoda (1898–99), 66, 187 Einstein, Albert, 3 Samoan Islands dispute (1898–99), Ellsberg, Daniel, 15 66, 186–87 Ember, Carol, 126–27 Masampo episode (1899–1900), Ember, Melvin, 126–27 66, 187–88 England. See Great Britain Manchurian evacuation (1901–3), Ethiopia, 38, 40 66, 188 Europe, 17, 29–32, 34–39, 42–43, 54, Venezuelan crisis (1902), 66, 189 76, 99–100, 106, 176–77, 179, Russo-Japanese War (1904–5), 66, 227, 248n. 17, 256nn. 10, 11 189–90 Index 285
‹rst Moroccan (Tangier) crisis Berlin Wall (1961), 67, 205–6 (1905–6), 66, 190 Cuban missile crisis (1962), 67, annexation of Bosnia and Herze- 206 govina (1908), 66, 191 Six Day War (1967), 67, 207 second Moroccan (Agadir) crisis Black September (1970), 67, 207 (1911), 66, 191–92 Bangladesh (1971), 67, 208 First Balkan War (1912), 66, Yom Kippur War (1973), 67, 192–93 208–9 World War I (1914–18), 66, 193 Angolan civil war (1975), 67, Anglo-Russian frictions in Central 209–10 Asia (1920–23), 66, 194 Eyerman, Joe, 253n. 5 Shanghai incident (1932), 66, 194–95 Fairgrieve, James, 106 Italo-Ethiopian (Abyssinian) War Farber, Henry S., 128 (1935–36), 66, 195 Far East. See Asia, East Outer Mongolian frontier dispute Fearon, James D., 15–16, 23, (1935–36), 66, 195–96 124–25, 127–32, 145–46, Amur River incident (1937), 66, 154–56, 246n. 14, 252n. 14, 196 253nn. 5, 8 Changkufeng (1938), 66, 196–97 Ferdinand, Francis, 247n. 7 Italian colonial claims (1938), 66, Ferris, Wayne H., 85 197 Florinsky, Michael T., 37, 248n. 11 Sudetenland problem and Munich Foreign policy portfolios similarity. crisis (1938), 66, 197–98 See Alliance portfolios Italy’s invasion of Albania (1939), Foreign trade, 114, 115, 116, 175, 67, 198 231–32, 234–35, 257n. 1 Nomonhan incident (1939), 67, France, 16, 31–32, 33, 34, 36, 39, 72 198–99 colonial possessions, 31, 32, 233, World War II (1939–45), 67, 199 247n. 8 Azerbaijan issue (1945), 67, economic power of, 29, 30, 32, 37, 199–200 41, 91–92 Levant (1945–46), 67, 200 foreign trade, 34, 234–35 Turkish Straits (1946), 67, geopolitical (regional) interests, 200–201 108, 111 Berlin blockade (1948–49), 67, 201 as global contender, 31, 32, 46, Taiwan Strait (1950), 67, 201–2 229, 230 Korean War (1950–53), 67, 202 military power of, 41, 91, 247n. 10 Chinese offshore islands national capabilities of, 89–90, (1954–55), 67, 203 90 Suez Canal (1956), 67, 203–4 as nuclear power, 32 Turkish-Syrian frontier dispute quali‹cations as major power, (1957), 67, 204 31–32 Quemoy-Matsu (1958), 67, 204–5 Franco-Prussian War (1870–71), 31, Berlin deadline (1958–59), 67, 205 35, 53 286 Index
Frederick William I, 34, 226 Global contenders, 27, 88, 93, 163, Freedman, Lawrence, 7, 10 226. See also Major powers criteria for identifying, 28–29, 46, Garnham, David A., 85 227 Geiss, Imanuel, 35 ‹ndings on, 96–97 Geller, Daniel S., 11, 85, 229–30, lists of, 46, 229, 229–30 250n. 3 Global cycles theory, 78, 81–82, 93 Gellman, Barton, 255n. 6 Gochman, Charles S., 20, 26, 85–86, Gelpi, Christopher, 11, 53, 60–61, 227, 249n. 4 249n. 4 Goertz, Gary, 108, 144 General deterrence failure (major- Goldstein, Joshua, 78, 82 minor con›icts), cases of, 60–61, Gooch, G. P., 100, 227 62–65, 164, 183, 210–24 Good, David F., 31 Geographic distance, 102, 116, Gowa, Joanne, 128 251–52n. 10, 252n. 11 Graham, Bradley, 255nn. 6, 7 Geopolitical regions, 106, 111–12, Grand strategy, 25, 172, 255n. 5. See 113, 251n. 9. See also individual also Selective engagement strat- entries for regions egy; United States, grand strat- Geopolitics egy old school, 90–100, 101 Gray, Colin S., 10, 246n. 13 new school, 99, 100–102 Great Britain, 31, 32–34, 35, 36, 37, study of, 23, 150, 165, 250–51n. 1 40, 155 George, Alexander L., 4, 16, 18, 22, economic power of, 30, 33, 34, 37, 48–54, 58, 110, 157, 168–70, 41, 91–92 245n. 6 foreign trade, 33, 34, 35, 40, Germany, 20, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 43–44, 234–35 34–36, 37, 39, 40, 43, 44, 46, 53, geopolitical (regional) interests, 77, 90, 99, 100, 155, 170, 179, 99, 108, 111–12 247n. 9. See also Prussia as global contender, 33–34, 46, economic power of, 30, 32, 33, 36, 229 37, 39, 41, 91–92 military power of, 33, 35, 41, 91, foreign trade, 34, 34, 35, 36, 40, 247n. 10 234 national capabilities of, 89, 89–90, geopolitical (regional) interests, 90 177, 256n. 11 as nuclear power, 34 as global contender, 26, 35, 229 quali‹cations as major power, military power of, 35–36, 37, 41, 32–34 91, 247n. 10 Greece, 111–12 national capabilities of, 89, 89–90, Greene, William H., 240, 243, 257n. 90 1, 257–58n. 5 quali‹cations as major power, Guicciardini, Francesco, 72 34–36, 228 Gulick, Edward V., 227 Geva, Nehemia, 126 Gurr, Ted Robert, 132–33, 134, Gilpin, Robert, 72, 78–81, 104–5 253–54n. 10, 254n. 11 Index 287
Haas, Ernst B., 73 concept of, 22 Haas, Richard N., 5, 172, 174, 255n. and deterrence stability, 19–20, 21, 5, 255–56n. 8 98 Hague Peace Conference, Second and issues at stake, 16, 19, 22, 98, (1907), 40 144, 168–69, 170 (see also Issues Haiti, 17, 172–73, 175 at stake) Hapsburgs, 29, 31. See also Austria- and national interests, 4–5, 9, 19, Hungary 20, 144, 170–71, 174 Hart, Robert A., Jr., 253n. 5 and regional interests, 4, 19, 21, Hartshorne, Richard, 106 22, 25, 98–99, 109–10, 112, Harvey, Frank P., 248n. 1 116–17, 123, 143, 144–46, 164, Hausman, Jerry, 240–41, 252n. 13, 165, 167, 179 257n. 4 Inherent credibility theory, 13, Hegemonic decline, theory of, 78, 17–19, 143 79–80, 93, 105 assumptions of, 17, 144–45 Henige, David P., 231 ‹ndings on, 145–54, 158, 160, Hensel, Paul R., 106, 251n. 9 168–69 Hillmann, H. C., 41, 247n. 10 Intrinsic interests, 13, 22, 109, 112, Hinsley, F. H., 40, 41, 42 167, 168, 170–71, 174. See also Hitler, Adolf, 43 Inherent credibility Hoffman, G. W., 106 Iran, 106, 111, 179, 251n. 8 Hoffman, Saul D., 257n. 4 Iraq, 111, 172–73, 179 Hohenlohe-Landenburg, Chlodwig Issues at stake, 12, 109, 110, 124, zu, 35 128, 132. See also Inherent cred- Holbrooke, Richard, 172 ibility Hopf, Ted, 16, 76, 173 Italo-Ethiopian War (1935–36), 40 Houweling, Henk, 85 Italy, 29, 38–39, 43, 72, 75 Howell, Peter D., 49 colonial possessions, 38–39, 233 Hudson, Geoffrey F., 103 economic power of, 29, 30, 38–39, Hume, David, 72 41, 91–92 Hungary, 111 foreign trade, 34, 234 Huntington, Samuel P., 255–56n. 8, geopolitical (regional) interests, 256nn. 11, 13 111 Huth, Paul, 11, 13, 16, 19, 20, 22, military power of, 38, 41, 91, 49–53, 58, 60–61, 98, 110, 112, 247n. 10 116, 145, 155, 158, 168–69, 237, national capabilities of, 89–90 245–46n. 8, 248–49n. 2, 249n. 4, quali‹cations as major power, 252nn. 12, 1, 255n. 3 38–39
India, 100, 111 Jaggers, Keith, 132–33, 134, Inherent credibility, xiii–xiv, 4, 24, 253–54n. 10, 254n. 11 53, 172. See also Deterrence, James, Patrick, 76, 77, 250n. 2 credibility of; Intrinsic interests Japan, 40, 42–44, 46, 53, 155, 177, approaches to, 17–19 179, 248n. 17, 256n. 13 288 Index
Japan (continued) Kondratieff waves, 78, 82 colonial possessions, 43, 233, 248n. 16 Korea, 42, 106, 248n. 16 economic power of, 29, 30, 37, 41, North, 171, 232 91–92, 248n. 16 Korean War (1950–53), 44 foreign trade, 34, 43–44, 234 Krauthammer, Charles, 255–56n. 8 geopolitical (regional) interests, Kugler, Jacek, 11, 44, 58, 71–72, 43, 227, 248n. 15, 256n. 11 78–79, 81, 85–88, 109, 229 as global contender, 44, 229, 256n. 11 La Feber, Walter, 42 military power of, 41, 43, 91, Lake, Anthony, 246n. 11 247n. 10 Lake, David A., 126 national capabilities of, 89–90, 90 Lalman, David, 57, 77, 85–87, 107, quali‹cations as major power, 36, 126, 129, 249n. 3, 253nn. 6, 7 42–44, 228 Lausanne Conference (1932), 40 Jervis, Robert, 5, 13, 15, 16, 17–19, Layne, Christopher, 16, 173–74, 22, 48, 51, 110, 154, 168, 255n. 5, 255–56n. 8, 256n. 10 170–71, 180, 246nn. 12, 13 League of Nations, 31, 35, 39, 40, 42, Joffe, Josef, 176, 179, 255n. 5, 43 255–56n. 8, 256nn. 9, 10 Lebanon, 108, 247n. 8 Johnson, Robert H., 5, 175, 178, Lebow, Richard Ned, 48, 50, 52, 54, 180, 255n. 4 58, 248–49n. 2 Lemke, Douglas, 85, 87–88, 108–9 Kahn, Herman, 7, 10, 13, 14, 48, 54 Leng, Russell J., 16, 246n. 10 Kajima, Morinosuke, 42, 248n. 15 Levy, Jack S., 27, 36, 42, 76, 228, Kaplan, Morton, 79 254–55n. 1 Karsten, Peter, 49 Liao, Tim Futing, 257n. 2 Katsura, Taro, 248n. 15 Libya, 38 Kaufmann, William, 9, 12, 18, 23, Lippmann, Walter, 101, 245n. 1, 48–49, 124, 167, 245n. 7 251n. 5 Keal, Paul, 103, 251nn. 2, 4 Locarno Conference (1925), 35, 40 Kelly, Philip, 106, 112 Logit models. See also Discrete Kennan, George F., 101, 251n. 5 choice models Kennedy, Paul, 26, 33, 34, 36, 42, 43, binomial, 118, 236 44, 72, 80, 248n. 14 multinomial, 93, 121, 125, 133, Kennedy, Peter, 240 148, 237, 238–41, 242, 243, Khalizad, Zalmay, 179, 255–56n. 8 252n. 13 Kiao-Chow, German seizure of London, Conference of (1930), 41 (1897), 35 Long, J. Scott, 241, 257nn. 1, 2 Kilgour, D. Marc, 11, 13, 52–53, 58, Louis XIV, 31 249n. 7 Kim, Woosang, 85–87, 107 Machiavelli, Niccolò, 72, 75 Kissinger, Henry, 10, 45, 50–51, 75, Mackinder, Halford J., 100 248n. 17 Mack Smith, Denis, 39 Kjellen, Rudolf, 250–51n. 1 Maddala, G. S., 257n. 1 Index 289
Maddison, Angus, 30, 88 Merritt, Richard L., 88 Maghreb, 111, 113, 233–35. See also Metternich, Clemens, 75 Middle East Middle East, 100, 106, 108, 111–12, Mahan, Alfred T., 99–100 113, 177, 233–35, 256n. 10. See Major power deterrence, 4, 12, 16, also Maghreb; Near East 52–53, 58, 60–68, 143, 164, 180 Midlarsky, Manus I., 78, 84–85 Major powers, 5–6. See also entries Militarized Interstate Disputes for individual major power (MID) Project, 57, 251n. 4 nations Miller, Ross A., 79 criteria for identifying, 27, 28, Milward, Alan S., 247n. 6, 248n. 12 45–46, 163, 225–28, 254–55n. 1, Mintz, Alex, 126 256n. 1 Modelski, George, 72, 78–79, 81, and geopolitics, 99–100 226, 227–28, 229 as global contenders (see Global Morgan, Patrick M., 52, 55, 170 contenders) Morgan, T. Clifton, 126–27, 129 lists of, 26–27, 36, 42, 228–30, 229 Morgenthau, Hans J., 26, 71–78, origin of the term “great power,” 104, 166, 225 27–28 Moroccan crisis, ‹rst (1905–6), 40, and power distribution (see Power 66, 190 balance) Morrow, James D., 85–87, 107, signi‹cance of, xiii, 20, 26, 163 126–27, 145, 253n. 8 study of, 26 Most, Benjamin J., 102 Major power war, 77–78, 80, 82, Moul, William G., 85 252n. 11 Mousseau, Michael, 57, 253n. 7 Manchuria, 248n. 16 Munich Conference (1938), 40 Manchurian crisis (Mukden inci- Mussolini, Benito, 39, 43 dent, 1931), 42, 43 Mutual assured destruction (MAD), Manchurian evacuation (1901–3), 3, 7, 8, 154 66, 188, 249n. 6 Mans‹eld, Edward D., 76, 85 Namibia, 251n. 8 Mao Zedong, 45 Napoleon I, 33 Maoz, Zeev, 20, 26, 125–27, 129, Napoleonic Wars (1803–15), 26, 31, 136, 227, 249n. 4, 254n. 12 85 Marks, Sally, 35, 43 National interests, 3, 4–6, 7–8, 18 Maxwell, Stephen, 12, 13, 17, 18, and inherent resolve (see Inherent 168, 170 credibility) May, Ernest R., 40 and regional interests, xiv, 4, 109, McFadden, Daniel, 240, 242 144, 170–71 McKinley, William, 40 vital, 5, 7, 13, 17, 25, 101, 117, McMahon, Robert J., 173 170, 171, 179, 251n. 5 (see also McManus, Doyle, 246n. 11 Selective engagement strategy) Mearsheimer, John J., 58 vital vs. peripheral, 5, 173, 177 Medici, Lorenzo, 72, 75 Near East, 17, 111, 247n. 8. See also Mercer, Jonathan, 16 Middle East 290 Index
Neorealism. See Realism, structural Park, Yong-Hee, 85, 88 Netherlands, 31 Partell, Peter J., 253n. 5 Nierop, T., 106 Past behavior, 14, 22, 154–55 Nijman, Jan, 251n. 6 effect on deterrence outcomes, 16, Niou, Emerson M. S., 76 156–57, 160, 162 Nish, Ian, 42 measurement of, 155 Nitze, Paul, 246n. 13 Pax Americana, 77 Nixon, Richard, 45, 248n. 16 Pax Britannica, 33, 77–78 Nogee, Joseph L., 38 Pearl Harbor, attack on (1941), 20, Nomonhan incident (1939), 67, 40 198–99, 249n. 6 Perry, William J., 255–56n. 8 Nordlinger, Eric A., 255–56n. 8 Persia. See Iran North Atlantic Treaty Organization Persian Gulf War, 172 (NATO), 36, 43, 171–72 Peter I (the Great), 36, 248n. 11 Northedge, F. S., 33 Pfaltzgraff, Robert L., 11, 246n. 13 NSC-68, 41 Philippines, 40, 248n. 15 Nuclear deterrence, 7, 10–11, 51, Poland, 20 165. See also Mutual assured Polarity destruction bipolarity vs. multipolarity, 75–76 credibility of, 7–8, 10, 13–14, 143, ‹ndings on, 76–77 154, 169–70, 172 Political similarity. See Regime simi- and rationality, 7–9, 14, 169, 172 larity Nuclear weapons, 46 Polity project, 132–33, 253n. 10 deterrent value of, 10, 22 Portsmouth (New Hampshire) Con- Nye, Joseph S., 5, 173–74, 248n. 14, ference (1905), 42 255–56n. 8 Posen, Barry R., 5, 174–75, 178, 255n. 5 Oceania and Australia, 99, 113, Post–Cold War, 6, 110, 254–55n. 1. 233–35 See also Grand strategy; Selec- O’Loughlin, John, 101, 251n. 6 tive engagement strategy; Oneal, John R., 85, 88, 129 United States, post–Cold War Ordeshook, Peter C., 76 policy Oren, Ido, 114 Powell, Colin, 255n. 7 Organski, A. F. K., 11, 44, 58, Powell, Robert, 15, 76, 154 71–72, 74, 77–79, 81, 85–88, Power balance, 11, 144. See also Bal- 225, 229 ance of power; Capability; Ostrom, Charles Jr., 76 Power shift approaches between major powers, 88–91, 92 Paci‹c, 40. See also Asia, East; Asia, and deterrence stability, 21–22, Southeast; Oceania and Aus- 128, 132, 164, 179–80 tralia effect on deterrence attempts, Palmer, Glenn, 253n. 5 145–47, 150 Panay incident (1937), 249n. 5 effect on deterrence outcomes, 71, Paris, Peace of (1856), 29 93–97, 121, 124, 128, 131–32, Index 291
145, 147–50, 151, 160, 165–66, 158, 160, 164–65, 168, 178 (see 239–40 (see also War) also War) measurement of, 92–93, 148, 250n. and inherent resolve (see Inherent 4 credibility) Power distribution. See Power bal- measurement of, 112, 114–16, 231, ance 254n. 1 Power shift approaches, 11, 71–72, and national interests (see 77–78, 80, 82, 83–85, 93, 95, 97, National interests) 98, 250n. 3. See also Global role in major power rivalry, cycles theory; Hegemonic 100–102, 103, 106, 110, 144, decline, theory of; Power transi- 251n. 5 tion as a tenet of selective engagement, Power transition 175–80, 256n. 10 (see also Selec- ‹ndings on, 85–87 tive engagement strategy) theory, 71–72, 77, 78–79, 93, 109, and threat credibility, 22–23, 125 250n. 3 (see also Inherent credibility) Prussia, 31, 34, 35, 226, 247n. 9. See Regional salience. See Regional also Germany interests Reiter, Dan, 254n. 12 Quester, George H., 49, 53 Reputational interests, 3, 5, 7–8, 14, 16–17, 21, 110, 155, 158, 160, Ranke, Leopold von, 27, 226, 167, 168, 169–70, 171, 172, 178, 256n. 1 180. See also Commitments; Rastadt, Treaty of (1714), 33 Costly signals; Signaling in Rationality, de‹nition of, 245n. 5 deterrence Ratzel, Friedrich, 99 Riker, William H., 11 Ray, James Lee, 125, 136, 253–54n. Ritter, Jeffrey M., 107–8 10 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 40 Realism, 3, 8, 11, 26, 127, 128, 165 Roosevelt, Theodore, 40, 248n. 15 classical, 75, 78 Rose, Gregory F., 76 structural (neorealism), 75–77, Ross, Andrew, 5, 174–75, 178, 255n. 5 250n. 2 Rousseau, David L., 128–29, 237, Reed, William, 87 253n. 6, 254n. 12 Regime similarity, and international Ruggie, John Gerard, 255–56n. 8 con›ict, 133, 139, 167–68 Rummel, Rudolph J., 125–26 Regional interests. See also Spheres Russett, Bruce, 11, 19, 22, 49–53, 58, of interest 60–61, 98, 110, 112, 125–27, concept of, 4, 107–8, 109, 175, 129, 145, 155, 168–69, 237, 251n. 7, 251–52n. 10 248–49n. 2, 252n. 1, 254n. 12, effect on deterrence attempts, 255n. 3 116–21, 123, 145–47, 150, Russia, 13, 16, 20, 30, 31, 36–38, 40, 164–65 41, 44, 45, 46, 53, 99–100, 105, effect on deterrence outcomes, 167, 170, 171, 173, 179, 248nn. 121–23, 145–46, 147–50, 151, 1, 17, 249n. 5, 254n. 3 292 Index
Russia (continued) Shatterbelts, 99, 102, 103, 105–7, economic power of, 30, 32, 37–38, 109, 112, 144, 251n. 7 41, 91–92 Sheehan, Michael, 250n. 1 foreign trade, 34, 37, 234–35 Shelton, General Henry H., 255n. 7 geopolitical (regional) interests, Siam. See Thailand 31, 43, 107–8, 111–12, 177, Siccama, Jan, 85 251n. 5 Signaling in deterrence, 5, 7, 13, 21, as global contender, 38, 46, 229 24. See also Commitments; military power of, 37, 91, 247n. 10 Costly signals; Reputational national capabilities of, 88–89, interests 89–90, 90 ‹ndings on, 16, 169, 179 as nuclear power, 38 notions of, 17–18, 19, 156 quali‹cations as major power, and “sink-cost” strategy, 15–16, 36–38, 228–29 24, 155 Russo-Japanese War (1904–5), 20, 42 techniques, 3, 14–16, 154–55 Signorino, Curtis S., 107–8, Saul, S. B., 247n. 6, 248n. 12 257–58n. 5 Schelling, Thomas C., 12–15, 17, 18, Singer, J. David, 20, 26, 27, 36, 42, 19, 48–49, 53, 154, 156, 170, 44, 65, 67, 76, 85, 87, 114–15, 245n. 7, 245–46n. 8, 246n. 13 126, 228–30, 250n. 3 Schlesinger, Arthur, Jr., 103–4 Sino-Indian con›icts (1959–62), 45 Schultz, Kenneth A., 15, 23, 125, Sino-Japanese War (1894–95), 42, 44 127, 132, 253n. 9 Siverson, Randolph M., 79, 85, 102, Schulzinger, Robert D., 39–40 126–27, 145 Schuman, Frederick L., 247n. 8 Small, Melvin, 20, 26, 27, 36, 42, 44, Schwarz, Benjamin, 16, 173 65, 67, 114–15, 126, 228, 230 Schwebach, Valerie L., 126–27, 129 Smith, Alastair, 15, 23, 125–27, Schweller, Randall L., 75 130–31, 145, 253n. 8, 257–58n. 5 Sciolino, Elaine, 255n. 7 Smoke, Richard, 16, 18, 22, 48–54, Selection effects, 121–22, 124, 127, 58, 110, 157, 168–70, 245n. 6 131–32, 145, 147, 252n. 14, Snidal, Duncan, 253n. 8 253n. 8 Snyder, Glenn H., 18, 19, 22, 48–49, Selective engagement strategy, 110, 174 53–54, 58, 110, 168 geopolitical version of, 175–79 (see Somalia, 172 also Regional interests) South Africa, Union of, 251n. 8 vs. global primacy, 176, 178–80 Soviet Union. See Russia “hard” vs. “soft” version, 175–76, Spain, 29, 32, 111 256n. 9 Spanish-American War (1898), 39, and vital national interests, 174, 40, 248n. 13 180, 257n. 9 Spanish civil war (1936–39), 40 Seton-Watson, Hugh, 37, 248n. 11 Spheres of interest, 42, 80, 101, Seven Years’ War (1756–63), 34–35 103–5, 251n. 4 Shanghai incident (1932), 66, 155, vs. “indiscriminate” globalist pol- 194–95 icy, 101, 103–4, 112, 251nn. 2, 5 Index 293
and regional interests, 99, 109, Tucker, Richard N., 253n. 4 117, 144 role in major power rivalry, 102, UK. See Great Britain 103, 105, 109, 110 Ulam, Adam B., 37, 44, 248n. 11 Spiezio, K. Edward, 85 United Nations, 173 Sprout, Herbert, 101–2 Security Council, 32, 34, 36 Sprout, Margaret, 101–2 United States, 7, 10, 13, 18, 20, 33, Spykman, Nicholas, 100 39–42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 53, 54, Stalin, Joseph, 37 100, 105, 155, 167, 170, 245n. 1, Stam, Allan C., 240–41, 254n. 12 248n. 17, 254n. 3, 255n. 4, Starr, Harvey, 102 256nn. 11, 13 Steele, Ronald, 245n. 1 Cold War policy, 3, 16–17, 101, Stein, Janice Gross, 48, 50, 52, 54, 103, 107, 157 (see also Contain- 58, 248–49n. 2 ment policy; Domino theory) Steinbruner, John D., 255–56n. 8 economic power of, 30, 33, 36, 37, Stoll, Richard J., 36, 44, 227 40–41, 91–92 Stresemann, Gustav, 35 foreign trade, 34, 40, 43–44, Stuckley, John., 85 234–35 Sudan, 111, 175 geopolitical (regional) interests, Sweden, 34 40, 107–8, 176–77, 248nn. 13, Syria, 108, 247n. 8 15, 251n. 5, 256n. 10 as global contender, 41–42, 38, 46, Taft, William Howard, 248n. 15 229, 230, 248n. 14 Taft-Katsura Agreement (1905), 43 grand strategy, policy prescrip- Taiwan, 171 tions, 5, 174–80, 255–56n. 8, Taiwanese crisis (1996), 173 256n. 10 Tapie, Victor-L., 247n. 5 military power of, 40–41, 91, Taylor, A. J. P., 26, 31, 35, 103, 225, 247n. 10 227, 247nn. 5, 7 national capabilities of, 89–90, 90 Tennefoss, Michael R., 85 as nuclear power, 38 Thailand, 106 post–Cold War policy, 171–74, Thirty Years’ War (1618–48), 33, 255nn. 5, 7 247n. 9 quali‹cations as major power, Thompson, William R., 72, 76, 39–42, 228 78–79, 81, 85, 100, 253n. 4 USSR. See Russia Thucydides, 71, 72 Utrecht, Treaty of (1713), 33 Tirpitz, Alfred von, 35 Townsend, Mary Evelyn, 32, 35, 39, Vagts, Alfred, 72 115, 231 Van der Wusten, Herman, 106, Toynbee, Arnold J., 227 251n. 6 Treitschke, Heinrich von, 256n. 1 Van Evera, Stephen, 256n. 9 Truman, Harry, 17, 246n. 12, 251n. Vasquez, John A., 26, 250n. 1 5 Vayrynen, Raimo, 84 Truman Doctrine, 41 Venezuelan crisis (1902), 155 294Index
Versailles Treaty (1919), 40 Weede, Erich, 52, 58, 85 Vienna, Congress of (1815), 27, 29, Weinstein, Franklin B., 16, 18, 19, 32, 53, 228 157 Vietnam, 251n. 8, 255n. 7 Werner, Suzanne, 85–87, 88 Western Hemisphere, 177, 256n. 10 Wagner, R. Harrison, 76 West Germany. See Germany Wallace, Henry A., 101, 251n. 5 Westphalia, Peace of (1648), 31, 33 Wallerstein, Immanuel, 78, 82–83 Wight, Martin, 26, 73–74 Walt, Stephen M., 74–75, 250n. 1 Wilhelm II, 35, 100 Waltz, Kenneth N., 10, 26, 71, 74, Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, 76, 183 75–76, 78, 163, 228, 229, 250n. 1 Wittes, Tamara Cofman, 173 Wang, Gungwu, 45 World-system theory, 78, 82–83 War, 9, 257n. 2 World War I (1914–18), 20, 30, 31, and costly signals, 158, 160–61, 35, 37, 39, 42, 53, 228 169 World War II (1939–45), 20, 32, 33, and domestic regime, 126, 129, 37, 43, 100, 111, 228, 231, 130, 133, 136, 139, 152, 154, 255n. 4 162, 167–68, 253n. 6 Wright, Quincy, 35, 36, 37, 38, 73, and past behavior, 156 225, 247nn. 4, 10 and power balance, 8, 96, 148–50, Wu, Samuel S. G., 52–53, 58 152, 154, 162, 166, 240 and regional interests, 121, 122, Young, Oran R., 13 148–50, 152, 154, 162, 165, 176 Yugoslavia, 172 War of the Spanish Succession (1702–13), 31, 33 Zagare, Frank C., 11, 13, 52–53, 58, Washington, Conference of (1932), 86–87, 169, 245nn. 5, 7, 249n. 7 41 Zambia, 251n. 8 Wayman, Frank, 76 Zhang, Junsen, 257n. 4 Webster, Sir Charles K., 28 Zinnes, Dina A., 88