Understanding the Deterrent Impact of U.S. Overseas Forces for More Information on This Publication, Visit
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C O R P O R A T I O N BRYAN FREDERICK, STEPHEN WATTS, MATTHEW LANE, ABBY DOLL, ASHLEY L. RHOADES, MEAGAN L. SMITH Understanding the Deterrent Impact of U.S. Overseas Forces For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2533 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0078-9 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: U.S. Army photo by Spc. Andrew McNeil Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled Limited War: The Role of Ground Forces in Extended Deterrence and Escalation Management, sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations, Plans, and Training (G-3/5/7), U.S. Army. The purpose of the project was to provide the Army with an analysis of the role of ground forces in deterring state adversaries while securing U.S. interests and controlling escalation in the event of a crisis. This research was conducted within RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the United States Army. RAND operates under a “Federal-Wide Assurance” (FWA00003425) and complies with the Code of Federal Regula- tions for the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with the implementation guidance set forth in U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Instruction 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviews and approvals by RAND’s Institutional Review Board (the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. The views of sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent the official policy or position of DoD or the U.S. Government. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures .............................................................................vii Tables .............................................................................. ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments .............................................................. xix Abbreviations .................................................................... xxi CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO Debates over the Deterrent Impact of U.S. Forces.......................... 7 Forward Posture and Crisis Deployments: Where and When Do Forces Deter? .................................................................. 8 The Contributions of Different Domains: Which Forces Deter? ..........13 Research Approach: Testing Arguments About Forward Posture and Crisis Deployments ..........................................................15 CHAPTER THREE General Deterrence ..............................................................21 Measuring U.S. Presence and Interstate Conflict ............................ 24 Research Approach ................................................................31 Results of Statistical Models .....................................................35 Analysis and Implications ....................................................... 40 v vi Understanding the Deterrent Impact of U.S. Overseas Forces CHAPTER FOUR Crisis Deterrence .................................................................47 Research Approach and Data Measurement .................................. 48 Quantitative Findings and Analyses ........................................... 56 Qualitative Analysis of Crisis Deployments .................................. 60 Conclusion .........................................................................69 CHAPTER FIVE 1961 Berlin Crisis ................................................................71 Background and U.S. and Soviet Goals ........................................73 U.S. Conventional Forces ........................................................78 Political Context and Soviet Responses ........................................95 Conclusion ....................................................................... 102 CHAPTER SIX Operation Vigilant Warrior .................................................. 107 Overview of the Crisis and the U.S. Military’s Response .................. 109 Iraq’s Intentions and Goals .................................................... 112 How the United States Perceived Iraq’s Intentions in the 1994 Crisis .... 118 U.S. Efforts to Establish a State of General Deterrence over Iraq ......... 120 U.S. Immediate Deterrence Efforts Against Iraq ........................... 125 Iraq’s Perceptions of and Response to Operation Vigilant Warrior ....... 132 Conclusion ....................................................................... 137 CHAPTER SEVEN Conclusion and Policy Implications ....................................... 139 Summary of Findings........................................................... 139 Policy Implications .............................................................. 141 APPENDIXES A. General Deterrence Models .............................................. 145 B. Crisis Deterrence Models ................................................. 191 References ....................................................................... 205 Figures 3.1. Number of Selected U.S. Forces Overseas Not Engaged in Combat, 1955–2014 ................................................ 26 3.2. Regional Concentration of Selected Types of U.S. Forces Overseas, 1955–2014 ............................................... 27 3.3. Militarized Interstate Dispute Intensity Levels ...................29 3.4. Militarized Interstate Disputes, by Intensity Level, 1946–2010 ........................................................... 30 3.5. Militarized Interstate Disputes, by Region, 1946–2010 ....... 30 3.6. Hypothetical Illustration of the Relationship Among States in the Statistical Models .................................... 34 3.7. Marginal Effects of Nearby Heavy Ground Forces ..............41 3.8. Marginal Effects of In-Country Light Ground Forces ......... 43 4.1. Number of U.S. Crisis Deployments in Support of Targeted States, by Military Capability, 1946–2015 ............52 4.2. Escalation to Major Violence of International Crises in Targeted States Supported by U.S. Crisis Deployments, by Military Capability, 1946–2015 ............................... 56 4.3. Satisfactory Outcome for Targeted States Supported by U.S. Crisis Deployments, by Military Capability, 1946 –2015 ............................................................58 5.1. West Berlin Refugee Totals, 1960 Versus 1961 ..................75 5.2. Helmstedt-Berlin Autobahn ....................................... 88 6.1. U.S. Military Steady-State Deployments in the Gulf Region, 1990–1999 ................................................ 123 B.1. Number of U.S. Crisis Deployments in Support of Targeted States, by Military Capability and Deployment Magnitude .......................................................... 195 vii viii Understanding the Deterrent Impact of U.S. Overseas Forces B.2. Escalation to Major Violence of International Crises in Targeted States Supported by U.S. Crisis Deployments, by Military Capability and Deployment Magnitude, 1946 –2015 .......................................................... 197 B.3. Escalation to Full-Scale War of International Crises in Targeted States Supported by U.S. Crisis Deployments, by Military Capability and Deployment Magnitude, 1946 –2015 .......................................................... 198 B.4. Satisfactory Outcome for Targeted States Supported by U.S. Crisis Deployments, by Military Capability and Deployment Magnitude, 1946–2015 ............................ 200 B.5. Outright Victory for Targeted States Supported by U.S. Crisis Deployments in Support of Targeted States, by Military Capability and Deployment Magnitude, 1946 –2015 .......................................................... 202 Tables 3.1. Summary of Statistical Results for Nearby U.S. Forces ........ 36 3.2. Summary of Statistical Results for In-Country U.S. Forces ....39 4.1. Details of U.S. Crisis Deployments in Support of Targeted States, 1946–2015 ........................................53 5.1. Ground Enhancements