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Draft 2020 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Update, Volume I

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Draft 2020 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Update, Volume I DOCKETED Docket Number: 20-IEPR-01 Project Title: General/Scope TN #: 236232 Draft 2020 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Update, Document Title: Volume I Description: N/A Filer: Raquel Kravitz Organization: California Energy Commission Submitter Role: Commission Staff Submission Date: 1/6/2021 2:34:09 PM Docketed Date: 1/6/2021 California Energy Commission COMMISSION REPORT Draft 2020 Integrated Energy Policy Report Update Volume I: Blue Skies, Clean Transportation Gavin Newsom, Governor January 2021 | CEC-100-2020-001-V1-CMD California Energy Commission David Hochschild Chair Janea A. Scott Vice Chair Commissioners Karen Douglas, J.D. J. Andrew McAllister, Ph.D. Patty Monahan Stephanie Bailey Jane Berner Michael Comiter Quentin Gee, Ph.D. Jim McKinney Tim Olson Primary Authors Raquel Kravitz Project Manager Heather Raitt Program Manager Drew Bohan Executive Director DISCLAIMER Staff members of the California Energy Commission prepared this report. As such, it does not necessarily represent the views of the CEC, its employees, or the State of California. The CEC, the State of California, its employees, contractors and subcontractors make no warrant, express or implied, and assume no legal liability for the information in this report; nor does any party represent that the uses of this information will not infringe upon privately owned rights. This report has not been approved or disapproved by the CEC nor has the Commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of the information in this report. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Matt Alexander Jonathan Bobadilla Denise Costa Noel Crisostomo Ben De Alba Maggie Deng Pam Doughman Tami Haas Andrew Hom Madison Jarvis Elizabeth John Jeffrey Lu Hannon Rasool Harrison Reynolds Jana Romero Gordon Schremp Charles Smith Michelle Vater Susan Wilhelm Taiying Zhang i ABSTRACT The 2020 Integrated Energy Policy Report Update provides the results of the California Energy Commission’s assessments of a variety of energy issues facing California. Many of these issues will require action if the state is to meet its climate, energy, air quality, and other environmental goals while maintaining reliability and controlling costs. This year, 2020, has been unprecedented as the state continues to face the impacts and repercussions of multiple catastrophic events including the COVID-19 pandemic, electricity outages, and statewide wildfires. In addition to these devastating events, the 2020 Integrated Energy Policy Report Update covers a broad range of topics, including transportation, microgrids, and the California Energy Demand Forecast. Keywords: transportation, zero-emission vehicles, plug-in electric vehicles, fuel cell electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, electric vehicle, resiliency, disadvantaged communities, equity, biofuels, hydrogen, Clean Transportation Program Please use the following citation for this report: Gee, Quentin, Stephanie Bailey, Jane Berner, Michael Comiter, Jim McKinney, and Tim Olson. 2021. Draft 2020 Integrated Energy Policy Report Update. California Energy Commission. Publication Number: CEC-100-2020-001-V1-CMD. ii iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Executive Summary ............................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 1 Blue Skies, Clean Transportation ................................................................... 1 Transportation Pollution and Disparate Impacts ......................................................................................................... 2 Disruptive Changes to Mobility and Economic Growth ................................................................................................. 5 Plug-In Electric Vehicles (PEVs): Innovation, Decreasing Costs, and Market Growth ...................................................... 5 Charging Infrastructure: Key to PEV Market Growth and an Opportunity for the Grid .................................................... 7 Fuel Cells and Hydrogen: Global Investment, Decreasing Costs ................................................................................... 8 ZEVs and Energy Resilience ..................................................................................................................................... 9 Low-Carbon Fuels and Near-Zero-Emission Vehicles May Be Useful in Some Contexts ................................................. 10 Moving Forward .................................................................................................................................................... 10 CHAPTER 1: Today’s Transportation Trends ........................................................................ 11 2020: A Year of Unprecedented Challenges ................................................. 11 How COVID-19, Climate Change, and Air Pollution Created the Perfect Storm ............................................................ 11 GHGs and Criteria Pollutant Emissions ......................................................... 13 Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles .............................................................. 16 Passenger Vehicles ..................................................................................... 20 Vehicle Miles Traveled are Increasing .......................................................... 23 Disproportionate Impacts on Disadvantaged and Low-Income Communities .. 25 COVID-19 Impacts on Transportation .......................................................... 28 Significant Short-term Impacts ............................................................................................................................... 28 The Age of Telework .................................................................................. 33 Setting a Course for Zero Emissions ............................................................ 35 Recommendations ...................................................................................... 39 CHAPTER 2 The Road Ahead: Disruptive Changes to Mobility and Economic Growth ............. 41 Three Revolutions: Electrification, Automation, and Shared Mobility Services . 41 Transportation Electrification ................................................................................................................................. 42 Shared Mobility and Ride-Hailing ............................................................................................................................ 42 Automation .......................................................................................................................................................... 44 California: An Epicenter of the Three Revolutions ......................................... 46 Economic Recovery and ZEV Workforce Opportunities .............................................................................................. 49 KIGT and Workforce Training ...................................................................... 53 Taking Advantage of In-State Raw Materials for ZEV Battery Manufacturing ............................................................... 54 Recommendations ...................................................................................... 54 iv CHAPTER 3 Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs): Innovation, Decreasing Costs, and Market Growth ........................................................................................................................................ 56 Light-Duty PEV Sector on the Rise ............................................................... 56 Global Industry Outlook is Positive, but More State Policy Innovation is Necessary ...................................................... 56 Medium- and Heavy-Duty BEVs Poised for Growth ....................................... 66 More MD and HD BEVs Can Improve Air Quality in Disadvantaged Communities, but Inclusion is Key ........................... 66 Trends are Beginning to Move to Match Future Regulations ...................................................................................... 67 Fleets and Costs: Total Cost of Ownership at Price Parity for Many Duty Cycles .......................................................... 71 Incentives and Policies are Critical to Set the Course for the ACT Regulation .............................................................. 72 Making Money Per Mile ............................................................................... 74 Recommendations ...................................................................................... 75 CHAPTER 4 Charging Infrastructure: Key to Market Growth and an Opportunity for the Grid . 76 California Must Stay Ahead of Charging Demand as the Plug-In Electric Vehicle (PEV) Market Grows........................................................................................................ 76 Meeting the 2025 PEV Charger Goal ....................................................................................................................... 78 Meeting the 2030 PEV Goal ................................................................................................................................... 79 Equity Should be a Prominent Factor in Developing Infrastructure Priorities ............................................................... 86 Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles Have Distinct Charging Needs .................. 89 Moving from a Public and Utility-Dependent Funding Model to Market Sustainability
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