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Pennsylvania Electric Vehicle Roadmap

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Pennsylvania Electric Vehicle Roadmap PENNSYLVANIA ELECTRIC VEHICLE ROADMAP Prepared for the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection February 2019 PENNSYLVANIA ELECTRIC VEHICLE ROADMAP Technical support from: Meister Consultants Group | A Cadmus Company Yborra and Associates Volpe National Transportation Systems Center ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), under the State Energy Program Award Number DE-EE0006994 through contract from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection. Disclaimer: This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. SUPERVISION AND COORDINATION Mark Hand, Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection LEAD AUTHORS Kelly Blynn, Meister Consultants Group, A Cadmus Company Erin Camp, Meister Consultants Group, A Cadmus Company CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Neil Veilleux, Meister Consultants Group, A Cadmus Company Ryan Cook, Meister Consultants Group, A Cadmus Company Philip Kreycik, Meister Consultants Group, A Cadmus Company Stephe Yborra, Yborra & Associates Coralie Cooper, Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, U.S. Department of Transportation Alexander Epstein, Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, U.S. Department of Transportation Page | ii DRIVE ELECTRIC PENNSYLVANIA COALITION MEMBER ORGANIZATIONS Borough of Bellefonte PECO BMW PA Dept. of Community and Economic Development Chapman Auto Group PA Dept. of Conservation and Natural Resources ChargEVC PA Dept. of Environmental Protection Charge Forward, LLC PA Dept. of Transportation ChargePoint PA Dept. of General Services City of Philadelphia Pennsylvania Environmental Council City of Pittsburgh Pennsylvania Governor’s Office Clean Air Board Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission Pennsylvania Office of Small Business Administration Duquesne Light Company Pennsylvania Sierra Club Eastern PA Advanced Clean Transportation Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Envision Solar Philadelphia Parking Authority First Energy Pittsburgh Region Clean Cities First Priority Global Plug In America Ford Plug Share General Motors PPL Georgetown Climate Center REACH Strategies Greenlots Seedling LLC Lion Electric Company SEPTA National Drive Electric Week Tesla Natural Resources Defense Council University of Pennsylvania Nissan University of Pittsburgh Park to Spark US Department of Energy Partnerships One Vermont Energy Investment Corp Page | iii CONTENTS Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................................................... x Roadmap Glossary .................................................................................................................................................................... xiii SECTION 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 The Need for Electric Vehicle Deployment Nationwide and in Pennsylvania ......................................... 1 1.2 Roadmap Overview and Purpose ......................................................................................................................... 6 SECTION 2 State of the EV Market in Pennsylvania ..................................................................................................... 8 2.1 EV and EVSE Deployment in Pennsylvania ........................................................................................................ 8 2.2 Barriers to EV Deployment in Pennsylvania .................................................................................................... 21 SECTION 3 Next Generation EV Strategies .................................................................................................................. 24 3.1 EV Deployment Strategy Categories ................................................................................................................ 24 3.2 Near-term Strategies for EV Deployment in PennsylvaniA (0-2 yrs) ..................................................... 29 3.3 Medium-term Strategies for EV Deployment in Pennsylvania (2-5 yrs) ................................................ 37 3.4 Long-term Strategies for EV Deployment in Pennsylvania (5+ yrs) ........................................................ 41 3.5 Summary .................................................................................................................................................................... 43 SECTION 4 Pennsylvania EV Market Penetration Scenario Modeling ................................................................ 46 4.1 Motivation and Methods of Scenario Modeling .......................................................................................... 46 4.2 Scenario Modeling Results .................................................................................................................................. 54 SECTION 5 Conclusions and Next Steps ...................................................................................................................... 64 5.1 Summary of the Benefits of Proactive EV Policy Action for Pennsylvania ........................................... 64 5.2 Priority Actions for Pennsylvania’s EV Market ............................................................................................... 64 Page | iv FIGURES Figure 1: Scenario modeling of projected EV sales shares, 2017-2035 ..................................................................... xii Figure 2: 2013 Pennsylvania Gross Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector ................................................................ 2 Figure 3: Historical and projected electricity grid mix in PA (Source: EIA) ................................................................ 3 Figure 4: PA Greenhouse gas and criteria pollutant electricity emissions intensity, 1990-2016 ......................... 4 Figure 5: Registered vehicles in PA by vehicle type .......................................................................................................... 8 Figure 6: Market share of Zero Emission Vehicles in Pennsylvania, 2013-2017 (left) and Annual sales of Zero Emission Vehicles in Pennsylvania, 2011-2017 (right) .......................................................... 9 Figure 7: EV sales share by state in 2017 ............................................................................................................................ 10 Figure 8: Registered EVs in Pennsylvania (2018 PennDOT data processed by DVRPC) ..................................... 12 Figure 9: PA EV fleet deployments, 2011-2017 .................................................................................................................. 14 Figure 10: Map of public EV charging stations in Pennsylvania, as of 2/21/2018 (Source: AFDC.gov) ........... 18 Figure 11: Map of public, semi-public, and Tesla EVSE in Pennsylvania, as of 2/21/2018 ................................... 19 Figure 12: Scenario modeling of projected EV sales shares, 2017-2035 .................................................................. 54 Figure 13: Illustration of fleet penetration lagging sales – Scenario 4: High policy, high technology ........... 55 Figure 14: Groupings of vehicles in the fleet model ....................................................................................................... 71 TABLES Table 1: Timeline of recommended strategies to support EV adoption in Pennsylvania .................................... xi Table 2: Vehicle types and available BEV and PHEV models ......................................................................................... 9 Table 3: 2017 Regional distribution of registered EVs in Pennsylvania (Source: DVRPC and PennDOT) ................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Table 4: Fleet vehicle electrification potential in Pennsylvania (Source: PennDOT) ............................................. 13 Table 5: Pennsylvania electric fleet vehicle deployment highlights to date ........................................................... 15 Table 6: Publicly listed EVSE in Pennsylvania, as of 2/21/18 (Source: AFDC.gov) .................................................. 17 Table 7: Regional distribution of public EVSE plugs in Pennsylvania (Source: AFDC.gov)................................. 17 Table 8: Benchmarking EVSE per capita and per BEV (Sources: AFDC, PennDOT) .............................................. 20 Table 9: Estimated
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