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Assembly Bill 2127 Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Assessment Analyzing Charging Needs to Support Zero-Emission Vehicles in 2030

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Assembly Bill 2127 Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Assessment Analyzing Charging Needs to Support Zero-Emission Vehicles in 2030 DOCKETED Docket Number: 19-AB-2127 Implementation of AB 2127 Electric Vehicle Charging Project Title: Infrastructure Assessments TN #: 238853 Assembly Bill 2127 Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Document Title: Assessment Analyzing Charging Needs to Support ZEVs in 2030 Description: Document Supersedes TN: 238712 Filer: Spencer Kelley Organization: California Energy Commission Submitter Role: Commission Staff Submission Date: 7/14/2021 10:09:13 AM Docketed Date: 7/14/2021 California Energy Commission COMMISSION REPORT Assembly Bill 2127 Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Assessment Analyzing Charging Needs to Support Zero-Emission Vehicles in 2030 Gavin Newsom, Governor July 2021 | CEC-600-2021-001-CMR California Energy Commission David Hochschild Chair Commissioners Karen Douglas, J.D. J. Andrew McAllister, Ph.D. Patty Monahan Siva Gunda Matt Alexander Noel Crisostomo Wendell Krell Jeffrey Lu Raja Ramesh Primary Authors Kiel Pratt Project Manager Charles Smith Office Manager TRANSPORTATION POLICY AND ANALYSIS OFFICE Hannon Rasool Deputy Director FUELS AND TRANSPORTATION DIVISION Drew Bohan Executive Director ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following California Energy Commission staff members contributed to developing this Assembly Bill 2127 Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Assessment: Jennifer Allen, Aniss Bahreinian, Messay Betru, Peter Chen, Kyle Corrigan, Jesse Gage, Tiffany Hoang, Madison Jarvis, Elizabeth John, Alex Lonsdale, Thanh Lopez, Lynn Marshall, Bob McBride, Tim Olson, Mark Palmere, Marc Perry, Sharon Purewal, Shaun Ransom, Larry Rillera, Ben Wender, and Micah Wofford. The authors appreciate the analytical expertise of these research collaborators: Eric Wood, Dong-Yeon Lee, Matteo Muratori, Ria Kontou, Nick Reinecke, and Yanbo Ge (National Renewable Energy Laboratory); Bin Wang, Cong Zhang, Fan Tong, and Doug Black (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory); Gil Tal, Alan Jenn, and Adam Davis (University of California at Davis); and coordination with the efforts of Siobhan Powell and Ram Rajagopal (Stanford University), Siddharth Sridhar and Michael Kintner-Meyer (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), and Jason Harper (Argonne National Laboratory). The authors value the ongoing interagency coordination on infrastructure efforts and the input and feedback from Carolyn Sisto, Audrey Neuman, Michael Truax, Ed Pike, and Sulekha Chattopadhyay (California Public Utilities Commission); Joshua Cunningham, Nicole Dolney, Kathy Jaw, Sara Forestieri, Fang Yan, Paul Arneja, Brandon Rose, Katherine Garrison, Ryan Hart, and Melanie Zauscher (California Air Resources Board); Janette Ramirez, Eric Fredericks, and Kalin Pacheco (Caltrans); and Ian Macmillan (South Coast Air Quality Management District). Finally, the authors appreciate the comments and feedback provided by various stakeholders, including Adopt A Charger, Advanced Energy Economy, Alliance for Automotive Innovation, American Honda Company, Ample, Amply Power, Arrival, Beam, Blink Charging, BMW of North America, BTC Power, California Electric Transportation Coalition, CalStart, Chargepoint, Charging Interface Initiative North America, City of Sacramento, Cruise, Daimler, Engie Impact, Electric Auto Association, Electric Vehicle Charging Association, Electriphi, Enel X, Environmental Defense Fund, EVBox, EVgo, ev.energy, EV Connect, Fermata Energy, Flo, Ford Motor Company, FreeWire, General Motors Company, Greenlots, Hubject, InCharge Energy, IoTecha, Kitu Systems, Lightning Motors, Lion Electric Company, Los Angeles Cleantech Incubator, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, Lucid, Mercedes-Benz Automotive Group, Mitsubishi Motors R&D of America, Mobility House, Natural Resources Defense Council, next-dimension, Nikola Corporation, Nissan Technical Center North America, Nuvve, Orange Charger, Oxygen Initiative, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Plug In America, Powerflex-EDF Renewables, Rhombus Energy Solutions, Rivian, Robert L. Graham, Sacramento Municipal Utilities District, San Diego Gas and Electric Company, SemaConnect, Siemens, Sierra Club California, Southern California Edison, Stellantis, Toyota Motor North America, Tritium, The Utility Reform Network, Veloce Energy, Vinfast, and Volvo Group. i ABSTRACT This inaugural Assembly Bill (AB) 2127 Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Assessment examines charging needs to support California’s plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in 2030. Under AB 2127, the California Energy Commission (CEC) is required to publish a biennial report on the charging needs of 5 million zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2030. In September 2020, Governor Gavin Newsom issued Executive Order N-79-20, which directed the Commission to update this assessment to support expanded ZEV adoption targets. In 2018, Executive Order B-48-18 set a goal of having 250,000 chargers (including 10,000 direct current fast chargers) by 2025. As of January 4, 2021, California has installed more than 70,000 public and shared chargers, including nearly 6,000 direct current fast chargers. This report finds that an additional 123,000 are planned, of which about 3,600 are fast chargers, which leaves a gap of about 57,000 installations, including 430 fast chargers, from the 250,000 chargers goal. For passenger vehicle charging in 2030, this report projects over 700,000 public and shared private chargers are needed to support 5 million ZEVs, and nearly 1.2 million to support about 8 million ZEVs anticipated under Executive Order N-79-20. An additional 157,000 chargers are needed to support 180,000 medium- and heavy-duty vehicles anticipated for 2030. A portfolio of charging solutions is needed to address site-specific real estate and grid constraints. To maximize grid integration, energy resilience, and ease of use, charging equipment hardware and software should use common connector and communication standards. Charging businesses are evolving beyond a model of only selling electricity, which alone may be insufficient for sustainable operations. Rather, innovative business models are prioritizing higher utilization, diversified revenues, and adaptation to local environments. This report outlines needs for continued government support and funding, increased private funding, and a flexible and scalable framework to accommodate the growing charging market. Keywords: Charging, infrastructure, transportation electrification, electric vehicle, network planning Please use the following citation for this report: Alexander, Matt, Noel Crisostomo, Wendell Krell, Jeffrey Lu, and Raja Ramesh. July 2021. Assembly Bill 2127 Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Assessment: Analyzing Charging Needs to Support Zero-Emission Vehicles in 2030 – Commission Report. California Energy Commission. Publication Number: CEC-600-2021-001-CMR. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ i Abstract ........................................................................................................................... ii Table of Contents ............................................................................................................. iii List of Figures .................................................................................................................. v List of Tables ................................................................................................................... vi Executive Summary .......................................................................................................... 1 Light-Duty Plug-In Electric Vehicles Will Need Nearly 1.2 Million Shared Chargers by 2030 ... 2 Continued Public Funding for Charger Deployment Is Essential to Meeting State ZEV Goals .. 3 Electrification of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles Is Accelerating .................................... 5 Charging Solutions Must Be Tailored to Local and Community Needs to Ensure ZEV Access for All Californians .......................................................................................................... 6 Prioritize Charging Standards and Innovation ................................................................... 6 The Road Ahead ............................................................................................................ 7 CHAPTER 1: Background ................................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER 2: Existing Charging Infrastructure .................................................................... 12 Charger Types and Definitions ...................................................................................... 12 Counting Chargers ....................................................................................................... 13 Analysis Shows Gaps in Geographic Distribution of Chargers ............................................ 14 CHAPTER 3: Current Transportation Trends ...................................................................... 18 Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions Continue to Rise ............................................ 18 Californians Are Driving More ........................................................................................ 19 Growing Demand and Charging Needs for Ride-Hailing Services ...................................... 19 Light-Duty ZEV Sales Are Growing as Battery Costs Decline ............................................. 21 Growing Electrification of the Medium- and Heavy-Duty Sectors ......................................
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