Spia 2020 General Election Survey

Home , University of Georgia

SPIA 2020 GENERAL ELECTION SURVEY

CONDUCTED BY THE SPIA SURVEY RESEARCH CENTER

OCTOBER 8, 2020

M.V. HOOD III

PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

AND

DIRECTOR, SPIA SURVEY RESEARCH CENTER

AARON HITEFIELD

JAKE TRUSCOTT

Professor M.V. Hood III 180 Baldwin Hall Athens, Georgia 30602 www.spia.uga.edu

School of Public and International Affairs Department of Political Science SPIA Survey Research Center

General Information: The AJC-SPIA Poll was conducted September 27 to October 6, 2020 and included a total of 1,106 likely general election voters in Georgia. Likely voters were respondents who had voted in the 2020 June primaries and/or the 2018 general election and/or the 2016 general election, who indicated they were currently registered to vote in Georgia, and were definitely or probably going to vote in the 2020 November election. The survey was administered by the School of Public and International Affairs Survey Research Center at the University of Georgia. Interviews were conducted in English. A dual- frame statewide random sample consisting of approximately 70% cell phone numbers and 30% landline numbers was obtained through L2 (L2 is a sampling vendor that maintains a database constructed from state voter registration lists. Through commercial sources, phone numbers have been appended to the individual records (registrants) that make up these lists). The survey results were weighted using iterative proportional raking in order to ensure the sample was representative of the 2020 general electorate in terms of race, sex, age, and education. The calculated margin of error for the total sample is +/-2.9 points at the 95% confidence level. This would mean that if 50% of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be 95% confident that the population’s view on that issue is somewhere between 52.9% and 47.1%. The margin of error including design effects is +/-4.0 points at the 95% confidence level.1

Verification: Before results for any head-to-head election match-up are released to the AJC, they are corroborated by an outside entity. More specifically, the outside entity replicates our reported results for any head- to-head races and confirms they are the same. For this survey, the results we report for the 2020 general election were verified by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, VA.

Statistical Calculations:2 President: The difference between Trump’s estimated vote share and Biden’s estimated vote share, at 1.1%, is not statistically significant. In plain English, the presidential race is currently a statistical tie. U.S. Senate: The difference between Perdue’s estimated vote share and Ossoff’s estimated vote share, at 7.5%, is statistically significant. Perdue is currently ahead of Ossoff. U.S. Senate Special: Warnock currently leads this race with 27.7%. The difference between Warnock’s vote (27.7%) share and Loeffler’s (21.8%) or Collins’ (21.2%) vote share is statistically

1AAPOR Design Effect formula: √[1+(standard deviation of the weights/mean of the weights)2] 2The formula used to determine if the difference in vote percentages between candidates is statistically significant is derived from Alastair J. Scott and George A.F. Seber. 1983. “Difference of Proportions from the Same Survey.” The American Statistician 37(4): 319-320.

Commit to Georgia | give.uga.edu An Equal Opportunity, Affirmative Action, Veteran, Disability Institution significant. Warnock is currently ahead of both Loeffler and Collins. The difference between Loeffler and Collins vote share, at 0.6%, is not statistically significant. Loeffler and Collins are statistically tied.

Presidential Vote

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline less or School High Some College BA Trump 47.5 52.7 43.4 68.7 4.3 31.7 27.5 44.0 50.4 57.4 56.1 50.8 35.8 Biden 46.4 40.2 51.3 27.1 87.1 54.0 63.8 47.6 44.9 38.5 40.0 39.6 58.5 Jorgenson 2.7 3.1 2.6 3.1 2.5 0.0 6.0 5.6 1.2 0.8 1.0 5.9 2.1 Undecided 3.4 4.1 2.8 1.1 6.1 14.3 2.7 2.8 3.5 3.4 2.9 3.6 3.7

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Trump 0.0 8.6 5.9 24.0 60.9 82.5 88.4 94.9 12.4 1.8 46.4 49.1 49.7 47.7 49.5 44.5 Biden 85.9 90.7 88.1 65.7 29.3 13.4 9.5 3.0 57.7 94.7 49.3 46.6 40.5 47.2 46.2 51.8 Jorgenson 12.5 0.0 3.0 4.9 4.3 2.0 0.0 1.0 18.6 1.1 0.0 3.1 5.4 4.7 2.4 0.6 Undecided 1.6 0.7 3.0 5.4 5.4 2.0 2.0 1.1 11.3 2.4 4.3 1.2 4.3 0.5 1.9 3.0

Note: Entries are column percentages.

U.S. Senate Vote

ess

igher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline or School High Some College BA Perdue 48.9 53.3 45.6 69.9 7.1 28.6 28.2 48.8 50.2 58.5 56.5 52.5 38.1 Ossoff 41.4 38.3 43.9 25.4 76.4 42.9 52.3 44.0 42.4 32.1 29.3 38.0 57.2 Hazel 2.5 3.3 1.9 1.5 3.4 9.5 6.0 3.2 1.2 1.9 2.4 4.3 1.3 Undecided 7.1 5.1 8.6 3.2 13.2 19.0 13.4 4.0 6.2 7.5 11.8 5.3 3.4

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Perdue 1.6 12.1 5.0 30.2 67.7 80.6 87.4 93.7 19.6 5.0 50.7 51.5 46.2 49.2 52.9 47.3 Ossoff 96.8 73.6 85.0 59.0 23.7 12.1 6.5 2.3 59.8 83.8 34.8 41.7 41.8 42.0 42.8 46.7 Hazel 0.0 0.0 10.0 3.9 3.2 2.4 0.5 0.6 9.3 2.6 5.8 1.2 4.9 2.6 1.9 1.2 Undecided 1.6 14.3 0.0 6.8 5.4 4.9 5.5 3.4 11.3 8.6 8.7 5.5 7.1 6.2 2.4 4.8

Note: Entries are column percentages.

U.S. Senate Special Vote

ess

igher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline or School High Some College BA Loeffler 21.8 21.7 21.8 31.9 1.2 14.1 11.3 21.3 23.1 25.9 27.1 19.1 18.3 Collins 21.2 25.8 17.6 30.4 4.0 7.8 7.3 19.0 22.9 29.3 21.3 25.1 18.3 Warnock 27.7 27.0 28.3 15.0 54.9 31.3 28.0 25.7 30.0 26.6 20.3 26.1 36.9 Lieberman 3.4 3.1 3.6 2.5 4.6 6.3 6.7 4.3 2.6 2.3 2.2 4.0 4.2 Tarver 3.6 2.3 4.7 2.0 7.7 1.6 8.0 2.8 3.1 2.7 5.8 2.6 1.8 Slowinski 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.5 2.5 1.6 2.7 3.2 1.4 0.8 0.5 3.0 2.4 Other Cand. 1.2 0.8 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.6 2.0 0.8 0.9 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.6 Undecided 19.2 17.4 20.6 15.4 24.2 35.9 34.0 22.9 16.0 10.6 21.7 19.1 16.5

U.S. Senate Special Vote Cont.

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Loeffler 0.0 1.4 4.0 15.1 36.3 37.1 32.3 47.1 10.3 1.8 23.2 21.6 17.8 22.0 23.1 22.9 Collins 0.0 5.0 3.0 12.7 18.7 34.3 46.0 41.4 11.3 1.3 13.0 30.2 18.9 22.0 23.6 20.5 Warnock 44.4 54.3 53.5 44.4 17.6 9.3 1.5 3.0 30.9 56.5 17.4 30.9 33.0 22.0 26.9 31.9 Lieberman 19.0 3.6 2.0 3.4 3.3 1.6 0.0 0.8 3.1 6.6 0.0 5.6 4.3 4.7 1.9 3.0 Tarver 6.3 0.7 12.1 2.0 3.3 3.6 1.5 0.6 1.0 7.9 11.6 0.6 2.2 7.9 2.4 1.8 Slowinski 1.6 0.0 3.0 2.4 3.3 1.6 2.0 0.4 9.3 0.9 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.6 3.4 3.6 Other Cand. 0.0 2.1 1.0 2.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.9 4.1 0.9 4.3 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.0 Undecided 28.6 32.9 21.2 18.0 16.5 11.7 15.7 11.2 29.9 24.2 30.4 9.9 20.0 19.4 18.3 16.3

Note: Entries are column percentages.

What is the single most important issue facing the country today?

ess

igher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline or School High Some College BA Economy/Jobs 23.2 23.6 22.9 26.5 18.0 12.5 15.9 22.1 27.6 20.0 24.5 24.8 20.2 Race Relations 13.9 9.9 17.2 8.7 23.9 21.9 34.4 11.9 10.4 9.8 14.2 12.2 14.9 Education (K-12) 3.0 1.8 3.9 3.6 1.5 1.6 0.0 5.1 3.3 1.9 1.9 3.6 3.7 S.C. Vacancy 7.0 5.7 8.1 9.1 3.4 1.6 2.6 5.1 8.3 10.2 6.7 7.6 6.8 Crime 12.4 14.6 10.5 15.2 6.7 9.4 7.9 16.2 11.3 12.5 14.2 14.5 8.6 Coronavirus 20.2 22.6 18.3 16.3 29.4 17.2 19.2 22.1 19.3 19.6 19.0 16.2 24.9 Climate Change 2.5 2.9 2.3 2.0 3.1 7.8 4.6 2.4 2.6 1.9 1.7 2.6 3.7 Health Care 9.4 10.5 8.6 9.1 9.2 14.1 7.3 4.7 9.7 14.3 9.6 8.9 9.4 Immigration 1.7 2.5 1.0 1.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 0.9 2.6 1.7 2.6 1.0 Other (vol.) 4.2 4.3 4.1 5.4 1.2 4.7 4.0 4.7 4.2 4.2 2.9 5.0 5.0 Don’t know 2.6 1.6 3.2 2.2 2.4 7.8 2.0 3.2 2.4 3.0 3.6 2.0 1.8

Most Important Problem (Cont.)

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Economy/Jobs 9.5 7.9 7.9 15.6 29.0 36.6 34.3 35.4 20.6 9.6 26.1 18.6 19.1 24.5 28.2 24.7 Race Relations 19.0 26.4 30.7 15.1 11.8 4.9 4.5 5.5 14.4 23.9 10.1 12.4 17.5 20.8 10.0 8.4 Education (K-12) 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.4 6.5 3.3 2.5 3.8 4.1 1.5 1.4 1.9 4.4 4.2 4.3 1.8 S.C. Vacancy 7.9 12.9 2.0 4.4 2.2 5.7 13.6 8.2 1.0 7.0 5.8 6.2 3.8 8.3 6.7 9.0 Crime 1.6 2.1 5.0 7.3 17.2 21.5 20.2 20.6 5.2 3.9 4.3 19.9 9.3 10.4 16.3 10.2 Coronavirus 23.8 31.4 25.7 31.2 14.0 11.4 12.6 9.9 32.0 29.6 20.3 21.7 17.5 14.1 20.6 27.1 Climate Change 19.0 3.6 5.0 2.4 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 4.6 5.8 0.6 3.8 1.6 1.9 3.6 Health Care 11.1 10.7 17.8 12.2 7.5 6.5 4.5 6.7 13.4 11.4 13.0 10.6 12.6 8.9 6.2 7.2 Immigration 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.3 3.7 2.0 2.5 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.2 3.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 Other (vol.) 7.9 1.4 2.0 4.9 4.3 2.4 3.0 4.2 1.0 5.0 13.0 1.2 3.8 3.1 2.9 7.2 Don’t know 0.0 3.6 2.0 2.0 1.1 4.1 2.5 3.2 1.0 2.2 0.0 5.6 4.4 1.6 2.4 0.6

Note: Entries are column percentages.

Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Republican President Donald Trump?

ess

igher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline or School High Some College BA Favorable 47.6 53.1 43.2 68.9 4.0 31.3 28.4 44.4 49.9 58.0 56.6 52.0 34.7 Unfavorable 50.2 44.3 54.9 29.9 92.3 62.5 70.9 54.4 47.0 40.5 42.4 45.7 61.9 Don’t know 2.3 2.7 1.9 1.3 3.7 6.3 0.7 1.2 3.1 1.5 1.0 2.3 3.4

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Favorable 0.0 7.9 6.0 25.4 58.7 82.6 88.4 94.3 13.4 2.2 49.3 50.6 48.6 46.6 51.0 43.0 Unfavorable 100.0 90.7 93.0 72.2 38.0 16.2 9.6 4.0 79.4 97.6 47.8 48.8 50.3 52.8 47.1 53.3 Don’t know 0.0 1.4 1.0 2.4 3.3 1.2 2.0 1.7 7.2 0.2 2.9 0.6 1.1 0.5 1.9 3.6

Note: Entries are column percentages.

Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden?

ess

igher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline or School High Some College BA Favorable 43.6 37.7 48.2 25.0 82.5 52.4 54.7 41.9 42.6 40.9 37.3 37.6 54.6 Unfavorable 51.7 56.4 48.1 71.1 12.9 33.3 37.3 54.2 53.0 55.7 58.1 56.8 41.3 Don’t know 4.7 5.9 3.7 3.9 4.6 14.3 8.0 4.0 4.5 3.4 4.6 5.6 4.2

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Favorable 79.7 87.1 75.0 63.4 31.5 14.6 7.0 3.2 50.0 89.7 40.6 42.3 40.9 43.2 43.8 48.5 Unfavorable 17.2 10.7 22.0 27.8 60.9 84.2 88.9 93.5 34.7 7.5 52.2 57.1 52.2 54.2 51.9 46.7 Don’t know 3.1 2.1 3.0 8.8 7.6 1.2 4.0 3.2 15.3 2.9 7.2 0.6 7.0 2.6 4.3 4.8

Note: Entries are column percentages.

Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kelly Loeffler?

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline less or School High Some College BA Favorable 34.2 36.3 32.7 47.7 6.8 22.2 22.1 32.8 34.1 43.2 40.4 33.9 27.9 Unfavorable 45.6 46.3 45.0 36.1 67.7 39.7 40.9 45.8 49.1 43.2 38.5 45.4 53.3 Don’t know 20.2 17.4 22.3 16.2 25.5 38.1 36.9 21.3 16.8 13.6 21.2 20.7 18.8

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Favorable 0.0 7.1 14.1 23.5 51.1 55.3 53.8 61.2 20.6 6.8 37.7 36.8 28.5 35.8 36.1 33.9 Unfavorable 92.1 69.3 58.6 60.3 25.0 27.6 27.6 20.9 46.4 74.7 30.4 47.2 47.8 45.1 43.8 50.3 Don’t know 7.9 23.6 27.3 16.2 23.9 17.1 17.1 17.9 33.0 18.5 31.9 16.0 23.7 19.2 20.2 15.8

Note: Entries are column percentages.

Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Republican U.S. Senate candidate David Perdue?

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline less or School High Some College BA Favorable 48.5 52.7 45.1 66.4 10.1 43.8 38.9 48.4 45.4 59.1 57.8 48.3 38.9 Unfavorable 39.8 38.7 40.8 25.4 70.6 43.8 43.6 40.5 43.0 32.6 28.0 40.1 52.2 Don’t know 11.7 8.6 14.1 8.2 19.3 12.5 17.4 11.1 11.6 8.3 14.2 11.6 8.9

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Favorable 6.3 10.7 19.0 31.4 57.6 75.7 88.9 87.3 32.7 8.1 44.9 57.4 47.0 51.3 49.5 46.7 Unfavorable 92.1 69.3 67.0 58.8 26.1 15.0 5.0 4.6 53.1 78.1 36.2 38.9 42.7 36.3 42.8 44.8 Don’t know 1.6 20.0 14.0 9.8 16.3 9.3 6.0 8.2 14.3 13.8 18.8 3.7 10.3 12.4 7.7 8.5

Note: Entries are column percentages.

Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Republican U.S. Senate candidate Doug Collins?

College

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline less or School High Some BA Favorable 36.2 42.2 31.4 48.7 10.8 25.0 23.5 36.1 35.1 46.4 38.1 42.2 29.3 Unfavorable 35.5 37.3 34.1 27.0 53.5 39.1 40.9 34.9 35.8 31.3 30.6 33.0 42.7 Don’t know 28.3 20.5 34.5 24.3 35.7 35.7 35.6 29.0 29.0 22.3 31.3 24.8 28.0

149,999

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

Very liberal Liberal liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Favorable 0.0 10.7 11.9 24.4 44.0 60.7 63.1 65.1 25.8 6.6 33.8 40.7 36.8 30.7 42.3 34.5 Unfavorable 77.8 60.0 53.5 51.2 24.2 15.0 12.6 10.4 49.5 61.8 26.5 33.3 34.1 40.1 32.2 41.8 Don’t know 22.2 29.3 34.7 24.4 31.9 24.3 24.2 24.5 24.7 31.6 39.7 25.9 29.2 29.2 25.5 23.6

Note: Entries are column percentages.

Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Democratic U.S. Senate candidate John Ossoff?

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline less or School High Some College BA Favorable 42.6 38.9 45.6 25.8 77.4 53.1 55.7 48.8 40.2 34.5 34.5 39.3 53.9 Unfavorable 44.4 51.2 39.1 61.5 9.5 31.3 18.1 38.9 48.0 58.7 54.0 43.2 35.2 Don’t know 13.0 9.8 15.3 12.7 13.1 15.6 26.2 12.3 11.8 6.8 11.6 17.5 10.9

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Favorable 93.8 78.6 81.0 59.5 26.1 13.0 8.6 3.0 62.9 85.3 40.6 44.4 40.5 42.0 43.8 45.8 Unfavorable 3.1 10.7 8.0 28.8 60.9 71.3 79.8 80.6 25.8 7.3 49.3 49.4 36.2 41.5 48.1 44.6 Don’t know 3.1 10.7 11.0 11.7 13.0 15.8 11.6 16.3 11.3 7.5 10.1 6.2 23.2 16.6 8.2 9.6

Note: Entries are column percentages.

Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Raphael Warnock?

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline less or School High Some College BA Favorable 36.7 35.1 38.0 23.4 64.7 42.9 44.3 33.3 38.3 33.3 28.0 26.1 46.6 Unfavorable 28.7 32.2 25.9 38.8 7.4 23.8 18.8 25.4 26.0 41.3 39.3 26.5 18.8 Don’t know 34.6 32.6 36.1 37.8 27.9 33.3 36.9 41.3 35.7 25.4 32.8 37.4 34.6

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Favorable 63.5 62.4 67.0 54.9 31.5 16.6 4.0 7.8 43.3 69.5 30.9 37.0 39.5 32.1 38.6 40.0 Unfavorable 6.3 9.9 6.0 11.3 27.2 42.5 64.3 51.2 18.6 5.5 32.4 32.1 20.5 27.5 28.0 29.7 Don’t know 30.2 27.7 27.0 33.8 41.3 40.9 31.7 41.0 38.1 25.1 36.8 30.9 40.0 40.4 33.3 30.3

Note: Entries are column percentages.

Do you remember seeing or hearing any political advertising for Kelly Loeffler?

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline less or School High Some College BA Yes 75.3 74.5 75.9 81.4 66.9 50.8 49.0 59.7 86.3 87.5 71.1 76.6 79.4 No 24.0 25.3 22.9 18.0 32.8 46.0 51.0 39.9 13.2 10.6 28.0 22.8 20.4 Don’t know 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 3.2 0.0 0.4 0.5 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.3

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Yes 68.8 59.3 69.7 80.5 74.7 80.2 80.8 83.7 49.5 71.9 71.0 76.5 81.2 67.4 77.8 80.5 No 29.7 40.7 29.3 19.5 25.3 18.5 18.7 15.7 49.5 27.7 26.1 23.5 17.7 32.6 22.2 19.5 Don’t know 1.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.4 2.9 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Note: Entries are column percentages.

Do you remember seeing or hearing any political advertising for David Perdue?

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline less or School High Some College BA Yes 87.5 90.1 85.4 89.9 84.0 78.1 73.8 82.1 91.5 93.9 85.3 88.5 89.0 No 11.8 9.2 13.8 9.5 15.6 18.8 25.5 17.1 8.5 4.5 13.7 10.9 10.4 Don’t know 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 3.1 0.7 0.8 0.0 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.5

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Yes 79.7 72.1 95.0 94.6 82.6 92.7 86.9 91.1 75.5 86.6 89.7 88.3 90.3 83.9 91.8 84.3 No 17.2 27.1 5.0 5.4 17.4 6.0 13.1 8.3 22.4 13.0 8.8 11.7 8.6 16.1 8.2 14.5 Don’t know 3.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.4 1.5 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.2

Note: Entries are column percentages.

Do you remember seeing or hearing any political advertising for Doug Collins?

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline less or School High Some College BA Yes 59.3 67.1 53.2 64.3 52.8 35.9 36.7 44.4 63.7 79.5 59.5 61.7 57.4 No 38.0 31.0 43.5 33.9 43.3 57.8 57.3 53.6 34.9 16.7 37.8 35.0 40.5 Don’t know 2.7 1.8 3.2 1.8 4.0 6.3 6.0 2.0 1.4 3.8 2.7 3.3 2.1

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Yes 40.6 38.6 32.3 64.4 64.1 71.0 72.7 72.1 46.4 47.0 60.9 58.9 64.5 47.4 72.1 58.2 No 50.0 60.7 62.6 34.6 35.9 25.8 24.7 25.6 48.5 50.8 37.7 36.2 31.2 51.0 26.9 41.2 Don’t know 9.4 0.7 5.1 1.0 0.0 3.2 2.5 2.3 5.2 2.2 1.4 4.9 4.3 1.6 1.0 0.6

Note: Entries are column percentages.

Do you remember seeing or hearing any political advertising for John Ossoff?

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline less or School High Some College BA Yes 84.8 86.4 83.7 84.4 86.5 79.7 71.8 84.5 86.5 90.2 78.6 83.8 92.4 No 14.1 12.3 15.4 14.6 12.0 18.8 26.2 15.5 12.3 8.7 20.2 14.2 7.3 Don’t know 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.0 0.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 2.0 0.3

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Yes 87.5 79.3 91.0 90.7 82.6 89.5 76.4 82.7 83.5 88.1 76.8 82.8 88.2 85.0 87.4 84.2 No 7.8 20.7 8.0 8.8 17.4 8.5 22.6 15.9 16.5 10.8 23.2 16.0 10.8 15.0 11.6 15.8 Don’t know 4.7 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.3 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.2 1.1 0.0 1.0 0.0

Note: Entries are column percentages.

Do you remember seeing or hearing any political advertising for Raphael Warnock?

School or less or School

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline High Some College BA Yes 44.5 44.5 44.5 35.8 62.9 47.6 33.6 34.1 43.9 60.2 39.8 43.1 50.4 No 52.4 53.9 51.3 61.7 32.8 49.2 64.4 64.7 51.7 36.4 56.6 53.0 47.8 Don’t know 3.1 1.6 4.2 2.5 4.3 3.2 2.0 1.2 4.5 3.4 3.6 3.9 1.8

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Yes 48.4 52.9 47.0 59.0 39.6 34.4 38.2 32.6 49.5 58.0 36.2 50.9 49.7 30.1 45.7 46.7 No 46.9 44.3 48.0 38.5 58.2 63.6 59.8 64.3 50.5 38.2 50.7 44.2 49.2 69.4 52.9 52.1 Don’t know 4.7 2.9 5.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 3.7 13.0 4.9 1.1 0.5 1.4 1.2

Note: Entries are column percentages.

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I consider my vote in the Georgia U.S. Senate races to be more of a vote for or against President Trump than a vote for any specific Senate candidate.

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline less or School High Some College BA Strongly agree 40.2 38.2 41.5 40.0 39.3 46.0 29.1 36.8 39.8 50.4 47.3 40.5 32.7 Somewhat agree 19.7 18.6 20.5 21.8 15.3 17.5 28.4 20.2 17.8 17.8 21.3 16.3 20.4 Somewhat disagree 14.3 15.1 13.7 14.2 15.6 7.9 18.9 16.2 15.6 7.6 9.9 14.0 19.4 Strongly disagree 20.2 23.7 17.4 21.1 19.0 17.5 20.3 21.7 21.3 17.4 17.4 20.3 23.3 Don’t know 5.6 4.3 6.8 2.9 10.7 11.1 3.4 5.1 5.5 6.8 4.1 9.0 4.2

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Strongly agree 33.8 31.4 39.0 29.8 31.5 49.8 51.8 46.3 22.9 38.4 34.3 52.8 45.9 32.3 35.3 35.2 Somewhat agree 26.2 12.9 30.0 23.4 13.0 17.8 21.1 20.5 25.0 17.8 20.0 17.2 20.5 27.6 21.7 16.4 Somewhat disagree 21.5 28.6 11.0 17.6 16.3 9.3 6.0 10.4 18.8 18.2 14.3 5.5 9.7 17.2 17.4 23.0 Strongly disagree 16.9 20.0 17.0 24.9 31.5 19.4 17.1 20.1 26.0 18.9 25.7 20.9 16.8 21.4 23.2 20.6 Don’t know 1.5 7.1 3.0 4.4 7.6 3.6 4.0 2.7 7.3 6.8 5.7 3.7 7.0 1.6 2.4 4.8

Note: Entries are column percentages. As a voter, how important is it to you for your party to control the majority of seats in the U.S. Senate?

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline less or School High Some College BA Very important 78.1 74.6 80.9 78.9 78.5 66.7 67.6 70.2 80.4 87.9 84.1 75.6 74.2 Somewhat important 13.6 15.4 12.1 13.0 14.4 17.5 22.3 18.7 11.8 7.6 10.4 15.8 15.1 Not too important 3.5 4.3 2.9 3.3 2.8 7.9 4.1 5.6 3.8 0.8 2.2 3.6 5.0 Not important at all 2.7 3.3 2.4 2.8 2.1 4.8 2.7 3.2 2.6 2.7 1.4 3.3 3.9 Don’t know 2.0 2.5 1.6 2.0 2.1 3.2 3.4 2.4 1.4 1.1 1.9 1.7 1.8

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Very important 82.5 75.0 67.0 63.2 70.3 85.4 93.5 83.7 43.3 81.5 78.3 84.0 75.1 71.5 79.7 78.2 Somewhat important 11.1 20.7 21.0 19.1 17.6 10.9 3.0 10.8 19.6 14.7 13.0 9.3 14.1 19.7 12.6 15.2 Not too important 0.0 0.7 2.0 9.3 7.7 3.2 0.5 3.8 10.3 1.5 1.4 3.1 5.4 4.7 2.9 3.0 Not important at all 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.4 4.4 0.4 1.0 0.9 17.5 0.9 2.9 1.2 3.8 1.0 4.3 2.4 Don’t know 6.3 3.6 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.8 9.3 1.3 4.3 2.5 1.6 3.1 0.5 1.2

Note: Entries are column percentages.

As you may know, Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg recently passed away. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The Senate should not confirm another appointment to the Supreme Court to fill the current vacancy until after the election?

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline less or School High Some College BA Strongly agree 42.4 38.5 45.4 26.8 72.2 64.1 56.1 39.5 41.7 39.4 32.6 40.3 54.6 Somewhat agree 6.3 4.3 7.9 5.7 7.6 6.3 11.5 7.9 5.5 3.4 5.6 8.9 5.0 Somewhat disagree 6.3 7.4 5.5 7.9 3.1 4.7 7.4 10.7 5.5 3.0 7.2 5.3 6.0 Strongly disagree 43.2 79.0 38.6 57.3 16.2 21.9 25.0 41.1 44.1 53.0 52.7 43.2 33.4 Don’t know 1.8 0.8 2.6 2.2 0.9 3.1 0.0 0.8 3.3 1.1 1.9 2.3 1.0

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

L Conservative

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Strongly agree 84.1 73.8 75.0 62.4 33.3 12.6 9.5 8.3 54.1 79.3 42.6 43.6 38.4 41.1 42.3 44.2 Somewhat agree 11.1 5.0 12.0 9.3 3.2 5.7 2.0 3.6 14.3 7.7 8.8 7.4 7.6 7.8 3.4 4.2 Somewhat disagree 0.0 6.4 6.0 4.9 8.6 6.5 9.5 8.5 11.2 2.6 4.4 4.3 3.8 6.3 8.7 11.5 Strongly disagree 4.8 12.1 6.0 20.0 53.8 73.7 78.9 77.2 18.4 9.9 38.2 44.8 49.7 43.2 44.7 37.6 Don’t know 0.0 2.8 1.0 3.4 1.1 1.6 0.0 2.3 2.0 0.4 5.9 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.0 2.4

Note: Entries are column percentages. If a candidate running for the U.S. Senate in Georgia voiced support for President Trump in appointing a nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court before election-day, how would this impact your likelihood of voting for them?

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline less or School High Some College BA Increased likelihood 26.5 30.8 23.3 37.3 4.6 18.8 12.7 20.6 27.0 38.6 33.3 23.0 22.0 Decreased likelihood 32.2 28.7 34.9 20.3 56.9 39.1 46.7 31.2 31.0 27.7 25.1 26.6 44.5 No impact 39.2 39.2 39.3 41.2 35.5 37.5 40.7 46.6 40.4 30.3 39.3 48.4 32.2 Don’t know 2.0 1.2 2.6 1.3 3.1 4.7 0.0 1.6 1.7 3.4 2.4 2.0 1.3

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Conservative Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Increased likelihood 1.6 5.0 2.0 10.2 21.7 49.6 55.1 52.8 3.1 2.6 24.6 30.7 28.1 23.8 26.0 24.8 Decreased likelihood 75.6 65.7 57.0 46.3 17.4 8.1 4.0 1.9 33.0 67.5 24.6 29.4 28.1 38.3 35.1 37.0 No impact 21.9 29.3 41.0 40.0 55.4 40.2 40.9 44.2 62.9 28.1 42.0 39.9 43.2 37.8 37.5 37.0 Don’t know 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 5.4 2.0 0.0 1.1 1.0 1.8 8.7 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.4 1.2

Note: Entries are column percentages. How has the Black Lives Matter movement and the ongoing protests against police brutality influenced who you might vote for in the 2020 U.S. Senate elections in Georgia?

or higher

29 44 64

- - -

Male Female White Black Other 18 30 45 65+

Topline less or School High Some College BA Increased (R) support 32.4 37.1 28.8 47.6 2.5 14.3 16.8 25.4 34.5 45.5 40.1 32.2 24.5 Increased (D) support 28.0 23.0 32.2 16.3 52.3 36.5 46.3 25.8 25.1 26.1 23.9 24.7 34.9 No effect 38.7 39.5 37.9 35.5 44.3 46.0 36.9 48.8 40.0 26.5 35.3 42.4 39.6 Don’t know 0.8 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.9 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.7 0.7 1.0

149,999

iberal

0,000

49,999 74,999 99,000

L Conservative

- - -

iberal

Very Liberal Slightly Moderate Slightly Conservative Very Conservative Republican Independent Democrat Under $25,000 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 Over $15 Increased (R) support 0.0 6.4 1.0 16.1 43.5 55.5 61.8 65.1 7.2 1.1 41.2 28.8 30.8 33.2 35.1 30.9 Increased (D) support 57.8 55.7 48.0 40.5 14.1 9.3 4.5 2.1 27.8 58.5 36.8 27.0 25.9 27.5 29.8 27.3 No effect 42.2 37.9 51.0 42.9 38.0 34.4 33.2 32.3 63.9 39.6 22.1 42.9 43.2 39.4 34.6 41.2 Don’t know 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.3 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6

Note: Entries are column percentages. DEMOGRAPHIC TOPLINES

Percentage Sex: Male 44.1 Female 55.9

Race: White 64.8 Black 29.5 Other 5.7

Age: 18-29 13.7 30-44 23.2 45-64 38.9 65+ 24.3

Education: High school or less 37.7 Some college 27.5 BA/BS or Graduate 34.8

Ideology: Very liberal 6.1 Liberal 13.4 Slightly liberal 9.6 Moderate 19.6 Slightly conservative 8.8 Conservative 23.6 Very conservative 19.0

Income: Under $25,000 7.0 $25,000-$49,999 16.5 $50,000-$74,999 18.9 $75,000-$99,999 19.6 $100,000-$149,000 21.2 Over $150,000 16.8

Political Party: Republican 48.8 Independent 9.0 Democrat 42.2