Patricia L. Sullivan

Home , University of Georgia

Patricia L. Sullivan Department of Public Policy Phone: 919-962-0666 University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Fax: 919-962-5824 Abernethy Hall 117 Email: [email protected] Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3435

Education Ph.D. Political Science, University of California, Davis, December 2004 Fields: International Relations, Comparative Politics, Research Methodology M.S. Student Affairs in Higher Education, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO School of Education, 1994-1996 B.S. Political Science, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA, 1989-1993

Professional Experience Assistant Professor, Department of Public Policy and Curriculum in Peace, War, and Defense, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (July 2011-present)

Assistant Professor. Department of International Affairs. School of Public and International Affairs. University of Georgia, Athens, GA (August 2005-June 2011)

Publications

Books:

Sullivan, Patricia. 2012. Who Wins? Predicting Strategic Success and Failure in Armed Conflict. New York: Oxford University Press.

Refereed Journal Articles:

Tessman, Brock F., and Patricia L. Sullivan. "Bang for the Buck? Assessing U.S. Military Aid and Recipient State Cooperation." Security and Defense Studies Review 13 (2012): 11-31.

Sullivan, Patricia L., Brock F. Tessman, and Xiaojun Li. "Us Military Aid and Recipient State Cooperation." Foreign Policy Analysis 7, no. 3 (2011): 275-94.

Koch, Michael T., and Patricia Sullivan. "Should I Stay or Should I Go Now? Partisanship, Approval, and the Duration of Major Power Democratic Military Interventions." The Journal of Politics 72, no. 03 (2010): 616-29.

Sullivan, Patricia L., and Michael T. Koch. "Military Intervention by Powerful States, 1945—2003." Journal of Peace Research 46, no. 5 (2009): 707-18.

Sullivan, Patricia. "Sustaining the Fight: A Cross-Sectional Time-Series Analysis of Public Support for Ongoing Military Interventions." Conflict Management and Peace Science 25 no. 2 (2008): 30-45.

Sullivan, Patricia. "At What Price Victory? The Effects of Uncertainty on Military Intervention Duration and Outcome." Conflict Management and Peace Science 25, no. 1 (March 2008): 49-66. Patricia L. Sullivan Sullivan, Patricia. "War Aims and War Outcomes: Why Powerful States Lose Limited Wars ". Journal of Conflict Resolution 51, no. 3 (2007): 496-524.

Sullivan, Patricia, and Scott Gartner. "Disaggregating Peace: Domestic Politics and Dispute Outcomes." International Interactions 32, no. 2 (2006): 1-25.

Other Publications:

Sullivan, Patricia. “Review of Sarah E. Kreps. Coalitions of Convenience: United States Military Interventions After the Cold War,” in H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable Reviews, Volume IV, No. 7 (2012): 13-18. Available at http://www.h-net.org/~diplo/ISSF/PDF/ISSF-Roundtable-4-7.pdf Sullivan, Patricia. “Key Findings: Is Military Aid an Effective Tool for U.S. Foreign Policy?.” Scholars Strategy Network. May 2012. www.scholarsstrategynetwork.org Datasets: Sullivan, Patricia L. and Michael T. Koch. Military Interventions by Powerful States (MIPS), 1945-2004. http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu/dvn/dv/tsulli Sullivan, Patricia L. and Johannes Karreth. Foreign Regime Maintenance Interventions, 1945-2008.

Manuscripts Under Peer Review:

Shelton, Allison, Szymon Stojek, and Patricia Sullivan. “What Do We Know about Civil War Outcomes?”. Revise & Resubmit. Sullivan, Patricia and Johannes Karreth. “Help or Hindrance? The Conditional Impact of External Intervention on Domestic Conflict Outcomes.” Revise & Resubmit.

Research Grants Mapping the Trajectories of Military Intervention and Occupation: Towards an Empirical Model. Co-PI with Mia Bloom (Penn State). Additional team members include Alexander Downes (George Washington), David Edelstein (Georgetown), Ian Roxborough (SUNY Stony Brook), and Kathleen Deloughery (SUNY Albany). Office of Naval Research. May 2009- December 2012 ($943,819; $189,104 Sullivan sub-award). RJ Reynolds Junior Faculty Development Award, University of North Carolina, 2012 ($7500).

Junior Faculty Research Grant, International Security and Foreign Policy Program, Smith Richardson Foundation, 2008-2009 ($60,000). Faculty Research Grant, The University of Georgia Research Foundation, 2006 ($8,100). Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement Grant, National Science Foundation, 2003-2005 Division of Social, Behavioral, and Economic Research, Political Science Program, Washington D.C. (SES- 0242022; $7,819) Dissertation Fellowship and Research Support, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), University of California, 2002-2003.

Manuscripts in Preparation Sullivan, Patricia. “Sunk Costs and Citizen Support for Military Operations Abroad.” Sullivan, Patricia. “Attitudes and Influence: Public Perceptions of the United States and the Foreign Policy Behavior of Latin American States.” Sullivan, Patricia, Johannes Karreth, and Leo Blanken. “Counterinsurgency Strategy and Government Survival.”

2 Patricia L. Sullivan Invited Talks “Who Wins? Predicting Strategic Success and Failure in Armed Conflict,” Naval Postgraduate School, April 2, 2013, Monterrey, CA. “Sunk Costs and Citizen Support for Ongoing Military Operations,” Triangle Institute for Security Studies (TISS), December 8, 2011, Friday Center, Chapel Hill, NC. “Mapping the Trajectories of Military Intervention and Occupation,” Office of the Secretary of Defense, Human, Social, Culture, and Behavior (HSCB) Modeling Program-Focus 2010, August 5-7, 2009, Chantilly, VA. “Sustaining the Fight: Determinants of Public Support for Ongoing Wars.” Domestic Politics and International Conflict Program, Department of Political Science, Texas A&M University, College Station TX, January 24, 2009 “Who Wins? Explaining Strategic Success and Failure in War.” Journeys in World Politics Workshop, University of Iowa, Iowa City. April 26-29, 2007 “Sustaining the Fight: A Cross-Sectional Time-Series Analysis of Public Support for Ongoing Military Interventions.” Presented at Re-Opening the Black Box of War: Politics and the Conduct of War, University of California-Davis. October 27-28, 2006. "At What Price Victory? The Effects of Uncertainty on Military Intervention Duration and Outcome." Department of Political Science, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, March 17, 2006 “The Utility of Force: War Aims and Asymmetric War Outcomes.” Fifth Annual New Faces Conference, Triangle Institute for Security Studies, Duke University, September 10-11, 2004.

Recent Conference Papers Sullivan, Patricia L. “Attitudes and Influence: Public Perceptions of the United States and the Foreign Policy Behavior of Latin American States.” (April 3, 2013). Paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Meeting. San Francisco, CA. Sullivan, Patricia L. “Attitudes and Influence: Public Perceptions of the United States and Foreign Policy Behavior.” (October 26, 2012). Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Peace Science Society International, Savannah, GA. Sullivan, Patricia L. and Johannes Karreth, “The Conditional Effects of Foreign Military Intervention in Violent Domestic Conflicts over Governance.” (April 1, 2012). Paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Meeting. San Diego, CA. Sullivan, Patricia L. “Sunk Costs and Citizen Support for Foreign Military Operations.” (September 4, 2011). Paper presented at the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting. Seattle, WA. Sullivan, Patricia L. and Johannes Karreth, “Determinants of Success and Failure in Foreign Regime Maintenance Interventions.” (August 27, 2010). Paper presented at the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting. Washington, D.C.. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1669320. Sullivan, Patricia L. and Johannes Karreth. “Determinants of Success and Failure in Foreign Regime Maintenance Interventions.” Paper presented at the International Studies Association annual meeting, New Orleans, LA, February 17-20, 2010 Sullivan, Patricia L. “Who Wins? The Determinants of Strategic Success in War.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Peace Science Society International, Chapel Hill, NC, November 21, 2009. Sullivan, Patricia L. and Johannes Karreth. “Military Force as an Instrument to Craft States.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, September 6, 2009. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1449310. Sullivan, Patricia L. “Who Wins? Explaining Strategic Success and Failure in War.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 3, 2009. 3 Patricia L. Sullivan Sullivan, Patricia L. “Sunk Costs and Citizen Support for Military Operations Abroad.” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Boston, MA, August 29, 2008.

Honors 2011 School of Public and International Affairs Excellence in Teaching Award, University of Georgia

2008-2010 Lilly Teaching Fellow, University of Georgia.

2004-2006 Walter Isard Award for the Best Dissertation in Peace Science, Peace Science Society International.

2005 Dissertation Award, Committee on the Analysis of Military Operations and Strategy (CAMOS), American Political Science Association.

2004 Graduate Student Paper Prize, "War Aims and War Outcomes: Major Power Military Operations since World War II." APSA Committee on the Analysis of Military Operations and Strategy (CAMOS).

Dissertation Year Fellow, University of California, 2003-2004.

Fellow, Professors for the Future, University of California, Davis, 2002-2003

Teaching Assistant Professor, Public Policy and Peace, War, and Defense, The University of North Carolina National and International Security, Fall 2011 Analysis of National Security Policy, Spring 2012 Research Design, Fall 2012 Global Policy Issues, Fall 2012 Honors Research Design, Spring 2012 Honors Thesis Supervision: William Wooten; Chris Scanzoni

Assistant Professor, Department of International Affairs, The University of Georgia Graduate Seminar in Security Studies, Spring 2006, Spring 2007; Spring 2009; Spring 2010 American Foreign Policy (Graduate), Spring 2008 Freshman Seminar, Spring 2008 U.S. National Security Policy, Fall 2009, Fall 2008, Fall 2007, Fall 2006, Fall 2005 Global Issues, Fall 2006, Fall 2007, Spring 2008; Spring 2010 Honors Global Issues, Spring 2007 Introduction to International Relations, Fall 2005 Peace Studies, Maymester 2009, 2007 Ph.D. Committees: Cynthia McMeekin (Chair); Judith Norton; Holger Myer Masters Thesis Committees: Szymon Stojek (Chair); Victoria Sanchez (Chair); Virginia Sanders (Chair); Allison Shelton; Andrew Snyder (Chair); Candra Grant (Chair); Moonseok Chun (Chair) Honors Thesis Supervision: Victoria Salegna; Joshua Watkins; Ashley Wilkinson; Ashley Doliber

Additional Training International Conference on Critical Thinking: How To Teach Students To Master Content By Developing A Questioning Mind, Foundation for Critical Thinking, Berkeley, CA, July 19 - 22, 2010

4 Patricia L. Sullivan Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies Teachers’ Workshop, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Stowe, Vermont, June 19-23, 2006. Summer Workshop on the Analysis of Military Operations and Strategy, Columbia University Institute of War and Peace Studies, Cornell University July 8-27, 2001. ICPSR Summer Program in Quantitative Methods of Social Research, University of Michigan, June 26-July 21, 2000.

Paper, Book, and Grant Proposal Reviews

American Political Science Review American Journal of Political Science Conflict Management and Peace Science International Security International Studies Quarterly International Interactions Journal of Conflict Resolution Journal of Peace Research Journal of Politics Security Studies National Science Foundation merit review of funding proposals (2) Introductory IR textbook by Jeff Frieden, David Lake, and Ken Schultz (W. W. Norton & Company) Stanford University Press University of Georgia Press Routledge Publishers

Professional Service National 2011-2014 Correlates of War Project Board Member 2010-2013 Conflict Processes Section Council Member. American Political Science Association. 2013 Discussant, Understanding the Human Impact of War, and Panel Chair, Counterinsurgency: Civilian Responses and Effects, International Studies Association Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA, April 3-6. 2012 Discussant, Triangle Institute for Security Studies, Twelfth Annual New Faces Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 4-6. 2011 Session Chair, Triangle Institute for Security Studies, Twelfth Annual New Faces Conference, Chapel Hill, NC 2010 Conflict Processes Section Program Co-Chair. American Political Science Association Annual Meeting. Washington, D.C., September 2-5. Chair and Discussant, Division 21: The Determinants of War Outcomes. American Political Science Association Annual Meeting. Washington, D.C., September 2, 2010. 2008-2009 Conflict Processes Section Lifetime Achievement Award Nominating Committee, American Political Science Association

5 Patricia L. Sullivan 2008-2009 CAMOS-Journal of Strategic Studies graduate student paper prize and CAMOS dissertation prize committee (2009 Chair). Chair and Discussant, Division 17: The Duration and Recurrence of Conflict, Midwest Political Science Association Meeting, Chicago, IL, April 4, 2009. Chair, Division 18: Military Effectiveness Panel, American Political Science Association annual meeting, Boston, MA, August 30, 2008. Chair, Division 21: Domestic Audiences and International Conflict, American Political Science Association annual meeting, Boston, MA, August 31, 2008 2007 Scientific Study of International Politics (SSIP) Nominating Committee, International Studies Association Campus 2012-15 Diversity Liaison to the College of Arts and Sciences Diversity Initiative, Department of Public Policy, UNC 2012-present Undergraduate Affairs Committee, Department of Public Policy, UNC 2012-13 Truman Scholars Selection Committee, UNC 2011-14 Member, Advisory Committee for the Curriculum in Peace, War, and Defense, UNC 2011-12 Campus Interview Committee, U.S. Student Fulbright Program, 2007-2009 and 2010-2011 Member, Department of International Affairs (DIA) Faculty Executive Committee Faculty Research Mentor, Center for Undergraduate Research Opportunities, University of Georgia, Fall 2010, Spring 2009, Spring 2008, Summer 2008, Spring 2007, Summer 2006. Guest Lecture, Foundation Fellow dinner seminar, October 26, 2010. Member, Review Committee, OIE 2011 Curriculum Internationalization Grants Faculty Associate, Center for International Trade and Security (CITS), University of Georgia, 2008- Faculty Associate, Center for Global Issues (GLOBIS), University of Georgia, 2008- Panel Member, UGA Office of Admissions Explore Georgia faculty panel, July 2010 Guest Speaker, Honors Program Lunchbox Lecture, November 18, 2009. Guest Speaker, Phi Kappa Literary Society, January 15, 2009. Faculty Research Mentor, Roosevelt Institute, University of Georgia, 2006-2010 2007-2009 University of Georgia/ GLOBES Founder’s Award Committee. Guest Speaker, Roosevelt Public Policy Course, October 13, 2008. Fall 2006 and 2007-2008 Department of International Affairs Representative, SPIA Council 2008-2009 Department of International Affairs Representative, Honors Program Faculty Council Public Service Guest Speaker, Reynolds Plantation World Affairs Program, Greensboro, Georgia (March 29, 2011) Guest Speaker, Great Decisions at the Athens-Clarke County Public Library (May 13, 2008) Interview on WORT, Community Radio, Madison, WI (November 16, 2007) Interview on News-Talk 1340 WGAU, Athens, GA (June 13, 2007) Guest Speaker, Forum, Unitarian Universalist Fellowship of Athens, Athens, GA (April 22, 2007) Guest Speaker, SPIA Highland Hills Outreach Program, Athens, GA (January 24, 2006)