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Indonesia Industry Focus Indonesia Industry Focus Indonesian Multi-finance Companies Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 18 Apr 2017 Bridging gaps with the under-banked JCI : 5,616.50 Multi-finance companies are capillaries of the financial Analyst system that channels funds to the unbankable population; Sue Lin LIM +65 8332 6843 crucial to financial inclusion [email protected] Fragmented industry with the largest player capturing 8% Benedictus Agung SWANDONO +6221 3003 4935 of loan market share; most big players are backed by banks [email protected] or auto dealers Auto sales, the main driver of growth; multi-purpose financing gaining popularity; leasing and factoring may resurface with commodity prices recovering STOCKS/COMPANIES Performance Price Mkt Cap Target Price Undemanding valuations given high ROE in this high risk- (%) high return segment; BFIN is our preferred listed proxy; Rp US$m Rp 3 mth 12 mth Rating stock liquidity is however limited BFI Finance Ind (BFIN( 4,100 493 5,000 17.1 57.7 BUY Proxy to the unbankable population. Indonesia has among the lowest bankable population in the world at 36% of the country’s adult Clipan Finance (CFIN) 298 89.4 300 15.5 13.7 HOLD population. The government’s push towards improving financial Adira Dinamika Multifinance (ADMF) 6,625 471 Not Rated 4.0 105.0 N/A inclusion opens opportunities to the multi-finance companies which Astra Sedaya Finance (ASDF)* - - Not Listed N/A N/A N/A BCA Finance (BCAF)* - - Not Listed N/A N/A N/A are able to meet the financing needs of the lower income households. Federal International Finance (FIF)* - - Not Listed N/A N/A N/A These companies typically serve the non-banking population in Mandiri Tunas Finance (MTF)* - - Not Listed N/A N/A N/A Indonesia, providing them with access to financing. Execution and monitoring mechanisms are manual and labour intensive but have * Not listed proven to be effective. The risk profiles of multi-finance companies are Source: DBS Bank, DBSVI, Bloomberg Finance L.P. higher than banks but the returns are also more lucrative, judging from Closing price as of 13 Apr 2017 the well-managed multi-finance companies we have screened. Consumer financing is its driving force; new avenues opening Multi-finance companies: Market share of top 20 players While the multi-finance 8% up; potential M&A opportunities. 8% 7% 7% 7% companies largely focus on consumer financing, the regulators are 7% gradually opening more financing options. In 2014, Otoritas Jasa 6% 5% Keuangan (OJK) officially allowed multi-finance companies to finance 5% 4% multi-purpose loans, refinancing and infrastructure loans. Multi-finance 4% 3% companies used to see leasing for heavy equipment as a growth driver 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% but that has since declined as commodities’ prices slumped three years 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% ago. OJK is also working towards bridging the gap with banks in terms 1% 1% of regulations. We believe this move will gradually mitigate risks to the 0% multi-finance companies as an investment option, and perhaps, also an FIF avenue to consolidate the currently fragmented sector as well as BFIN CFIN TAFS ASDF BCA F ADMF Oto M Orix I.F WOMF MPM F. CIMB F. potential M&A opportunities. Dipo S.F C.J. Power Bussan A.F Mandiri T.F Summit O.F Recovery in commodity prices and auto sales a positive boost; F,I Indomobil Mitsui Leasing Commodity Surya Artha N.F regulatory changes could add fuel to auto sales. Note: Based on outstanding on balance sheet net receivables. Data prices have held up quite well to date and are expected to boost represents 2015 numbers purchasing power in the near term. Receivable growth has also Source: Infobank, DBS Bank, DBSVI accelerated to +7.2% in February 2017 (vs -1% in January 2016). We expect the flow-through of this positive development to be gradual. Multi-finance companies: Financing activities y-o-y growth The visible turnaround for the auto industry would bode better for the Rp bn %growth multi-finance companies. The relaxation of down payment rules should 450 35% 32.3% also add fuel to auto sales. We expect financing growth to recover to 400 31.0% 30% 8% in 2017, driven by auto financing. 350 26.4% 25% 23.1% 300 20% BFIN is a good listed proxy; opportunities among the top 20 250 Selected listed multi-finance companies are 15.2% 15% multi-finance companies. 200 attractive; BFIN (BUY, TP Rp5,000) is our pick. The main concern 10% 150 investors may have is the limited stock liquidity. We highlight ADMF, 6.7% 100 4.1% 5.2% 5% BCAF, and MTF, which are subsidiaries to banks, and ASDF (4W market 50 -0.8% 0% leader) and FIF (2W market leader), which are Astra-related companies - -5% – these have strong parent companies. We believe they are 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Financing Financing growth y-o-y opportunities among smaller multi-finance companies, both organic and inorganic, in this current operating environment. Source: OJK, BI, DBSVI ed-CK / sa- MA, PY Industry Focus Table of Contents Investment Summary 3 Opportunities with the unbankable population 4 A. Financial inclusion, a key to growth 4 B. The multi-finance industry landscape 5 C. Prospects for the multi-finance industry 9 Key drivers to the multi-finance industry 11 A. Automotive industry 11 B. Leasing and heavy equipment 13 Key players and market position 15 A. 4-wheeler market 18 B. 2-wheeler market 19 Regulatory framework for multi-finance companies 20 Valuation and recommendation 23 A. Valuation tables 24 B. P/BV Bands 25 Company Guides 27 BFI Finance (BFIN) 28 Clipan Finance (CFIN) 36 Company Profiles (Non-rated) 44 Adira Dinamika Multifinance (ADMF) (Non-rated; Listed) 45 Astra Sedaya Finance (ASDF) (Non-rated; Not listed) 50 BCA Finance (BCAF) (Non-rated; Not listed) 55 Federal International Finance (FIF) (Non-rated; Not listed) 60 Mandiri Tunas Finance (MTF) (Non-rated; Not listed) 65 Page 2 Industry Focus Investment Summary commodity prices might not sustain throughout the year but we believe the positive impact should be gradually felt. We Multi-finance companies – bridging gaps with the under- expect the auto industry to pick up in 2017, boosting the banked. Indonesia has among the lowest bankable population growth prospects of the multi-finance companies. in the world at 35.9% of the country’s adult population. Long-term potential, especially for 4W. The auto penetration Banking with the unbankable population includes looking at rate in Indonesia remains one of the lowest in the region. instances in micro lending, especially in the rural areas. The Based on data by Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS)/ Indonesian initiation of the branchless banking agenda has addressed this Statistics Centre and automotive association, in 2015 there are to some extent. But beyond that, the need to further reach out only 13.7m cars and 99m motorcycles outstanding on to the unbankable population lies in the hands of the multi- Indonesian roads (vs its population of 250m). The penetration finance companies which cover both urban and rural areas. rate for 4-wheeler vehicles (4W) is a mere 5%, lower than The government’s push towards improving financial inclusion other developing countries like Malaysia and Thailand. opens opportunities for the multi-finance companies which are However, 2-wheeler vehicles’ (2W) penetration is much higher able to meet the financing needs of the lower income at 40% in 2015. households. Multi-finance companies are licensed to offer a range of services, including leasing, consumer financing (bulk Fragmented industry; obvious market leaders. There are a total of its business), credit card financing and factoring. But unlike of 201 multi-finance companies, with the top 20 companies banks, they are not allowed to accept deposits. Similar to commanding 65% (financing) market share. Each of them banks, multi-finance companies are governed by Otoritas Jasa caters to its own niche by specialising in several categories Keuangan (OJK), the regulatory arm of the Minister of Finance such as products financed (4W, 2W, heavy equipment (HE), (MoF). etc) and by geographical reach. Multi-finance companies are typically owned by banks (both domestic and foreign), brand- Turning optimistic; three critical factors to watch. We expect holding sole agents (Agen Tunggal Pemegang Merek, ATPM) an improvement in financing demand in 2017. The Multi- of cars and foreign principals of car makers (e.g. Astra finance Company Association (APPI/Asosiasi Perusahaan International), and a few which are family/individual-owned. Pembiayaan Indonesia) recently announced its forecast of 10% The strong multi-finance companies are those affiliated to financing growth for 2017 on the back of an improving banks and ATPMs. The largest player, Astra Sedaya Finance economy and improved commodity price trends. We identified (ASDF) has only 8% market share, marginally higher among three critical factors that will drive multi-finance companies’ the top 6 multi-finance companies, which indicates how earnings in 2017: (1) lower credit cost, (2) higher NIM and fragmented the industry is. better growth, and (3) well controlled expenses. Note that some multi-finance companies had to accelerate provisions as Top players have better profitability metrics than banks. they had to change how NPLs were classified following stricter Compared to banks, multi-finance companies generate better regulations to streamline recognition similar to the banks; this returns. Generally, the major multi-finance players record caused provisions to be higher in 2016. We expect NIM higher ROE and ROA as the benefits of higher asset yield expansion in 2017 on the back of lower funding cost as the outweigh the negatives of higher cost of funds, operating cost, banks have started to price down their loans, which means and credit cost.
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