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Convergence Canada see pages 21 to 25 Balance of risk Decon of at-risk population at-risk of Decon Drones in CBRN in Drones Man in the loop

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CBRNe Feb 2019 cover and spine v2:CBRNe Feb 2019 cover and spine v2 25/02/2019 12:27 Page 1 Page 12:27 25/02/2019 v2 spine and cover 2019 Feb v2:CBRNe spine and cover 2019 Feb CBRNe CBRNe WORLD www.cbrneworld.com VOLUME 14 ISSUE 1 FEBRUARY 2019 CBRNe Feb2019Press:CBRNevPress25/02/201912:25Page46 46 CBRNe WORLD CBRNe the additionaldetail, see our recent article in radiological,and nuclear weapons. For especiallyregarding chemical, biological, forhomeland defence and security, presentsnovel threats and opportunities swarmtechnology. programmes,alreadyispursuing drone havingchemicalbiological and weapons benefit.Russia,suspectedwhich is of sophisticatedstatesmostwillgainthe threatshomeland.theto Technologically improveCBRNdeliveryposenovel and organisationsdroneuseswarmscanto Adversarystatesterroristand Threats Hornets. launchedfrom three F/A-18 Super swarmof103 small, fixed-wing drones capabilitiesoffice (SCO) recently tested a DepartmentofDefense’s (DOD) strategic highwalls until they crumbled and fell. throwthemselves against defender’sa Unthinkingmasses ofdrones could ofelectronic and cyber warfare. missiles,while others exploit the ‘magic’ actions.One drone may fire long range adoptunique roles, coordinating their toavoid anupcoming mountain, or forestsfor targets, chatter autonomously searchthrough verdant New Zealand tosolve problems. The drones could seeand hear. They would work together Droneswould tell one another what they Whatifdrones could talk? Fellowshipofthe Drone futureunlikelytheyareacquire to both non-stateforeseeableactors,theforso weaponsalreadymajorchallengeisa for platformsunclear.is Acquiring CBRN theirabilitydevelopto novel drone Syriawouldalsolikelybenefit, though separatingand recombining. demonstratedswarma capable of drones,while studya inNature mixedswarms ofground and aerial Nuclear(CBRN) Weapons. Chemical,Biological, Radiological, and Destruction:Drone Swarms and CBRNeWORLD Asthe technology matures, it Fantasyand reality are merging. The NonproliferationReview 1 Otherresearch has developed BN ovrec aaa 61 pi 09www.cbrneworld.com/CBRNe_Convergence_Canada 2019 April 16-17 Canada, Convergence CBRNe PhilipBleek of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey on the ZakKallenborn, independent national security researcher, and Associate Professor February 2019 February 4 NorthKoreaand droneswarm threat and opportunities for homeland defence and security 3 : Swarming: 2 improvedaccuracy and decreases the CBRNstrikes. Live information offers conditionsthat can inform the details of informationabout environmental componentofthis hypothetical scenario. ofdrones tocommunicate iscruciala swarmreforms and moves on. The ability fewminutes, the battle isdone and the bullets,and accurately return fire. Ina soldiers’ability tomove and avoid the cumbersomeprotective gear limits the withguns and bombs start tofire. The protectivegear, other drones equipped Asthe soldiers retreat and remerge in incomingdefenders. dronesbreak away to respond to the forthe increased wind, while a handful of payloadsadjust their approach to account north.”The attack drones armed with VX Possibledefender coming from the iscurrently 14mph from the south-east. unawaresoldiers, another message: “Wind waitingswarm. As the swarm descends on (15.6oC),”relays a sensor drone to the south-east.Temperature is 60oF “Windis currently 10mph from the ImprovingCBRN delivery proliferation. encourage may interest hobbyist drones, swarming non- with As operationalised. SCO the that drone Perdix the developed Technologyof Institute Massachusetts the at students fact, In complicated. be not need technology swarm drone droneswarm. novel,sophisticated platforma as sophisticatedCBRNagentssucha and Thisalso allows some drones tofocus on onetarget, while others attack another. theirassaults. Some drones may attack coordinatethe timing and targeting of changingconditions. becausethe swarm can respond to planningburden islikely todecrease weaponspayload needed. Moreover, the quantityofchemical orbiological Dronescan collect and share Theswarm opens with VXaattack. Basic certain. less is run long The Differenttypes ofattack drones can decreasingterrorist demand for them. withoutCBRN weapons, potentially terroriststo mount mass casualty attacks India. CarbideIndia’s pesticide plant inBhopal, towardsthe city. cloudhas risen above the facility, drifting andbomb them. Before long, noxiousa thefacility for storage tanks, find them swarmmoves past. The drones search andopen fire, 10drones fall, but the City.Several guards respond tothe noise onchemicala facility near New York nightas100 makeshift drones descend highA pitched buzz interrupts the quiet Novelmethods ofattack weaponscapable of complex attacks. moresurvivable, more accurate CBRN theswarm look larger. The end result: assets.Dummy drones can also just make morevaluable drones or other valuable adversaryfire. This can help protect the payloadscan be used as decoys to draw relativelybenign. Others, not somuch. environmentalistsgo, Greenpeace is intendingtocause harm. As plant. shapeddrone into Frencha nuclear thevulnerability, crashing Superman-a fear.Greenpeace recently demonstrated andcertainly cause considerable public consequences,likely cause some injuries, wouldhave significant economic targets.releaseA ofradioactive material aerialthreats are minimal. againstterrorist attack, defences against thatchemical facilities must defend ofHomeland Security(DHS) mandates incidents.Although the USDepartment enableterrorists tocause similar (estimatesvary). Drone swarms could killedbetween 3,787 and 16,000 people gasinjured over 500,000 people and mitigatethe threat. possiblycyber warfare techniques to possibledefenders, using electronic or Moreover,drone swarms could allow In1984, gasa leak occurred atUnion Moreover,simple drones without Nuclearfacilities are also potential 7 6 (Thisshould not beinterpreted as Therelease ofmethyl isocyanate 5 www.cbrneworld.com 8 ) CBRNe Feb 2019 Press:CBRNe Feb 2019 vPress 25/02/2019 12:25 Page 47 CBRNeWORLD

Swarms of drones could be flown into attacks may even decrease adversary and the Libyan civil war, and during the crowded areas, dropping bombs on the interest. If an adversary believes an Syrian civil war. There is little reason to population below. Areas like stadiums and attack can be easily and quickly believe the same challenge will not arise concert venues make rich targets and interrupted, they will be less inclined to again. In fact, the new 2019 National terrorists would benefit from having attack in the first place. This is especially Intelligence Strategy prioritises efforts to multiple, independently targetable drones. true for terrorist organisations where secure CBRN stockpiles.12 A single drone can cause significant agent acquisition is already a major, Drone swarms are likely to be well damage to an airplane wing; a swarm of uncertain undertaking. Instead of using suited to these tasks. Communication drones could plausibly bring down a CBRN agents, they may select other, less and coordination enables wide-area plane.9 Drone based attacks on airplanes harmful attack methods. searches. Drones can spread out broadly, would also allow terrorists to avoid searching for targets, with minimal traditional checkpoint security, such as Counterproliferation manpower required. For example, the metal detectors, while the terrorists The year is 2030. After a brutal war with SCO’s Perdix drones are designed could strike from afar, gaining more time North Korea, the US faces a major primarily for intelligence collection. to escape law enforcement. ISIS challenge: secure North Korea’s CBN Drones swarms can also help prevent the frequently used non-swarming drones weapons stockpiles to ensure they do not smuggling of weapons and material. mounted with explosives in its attacks; fall into the wrong hands. Terrorists and They could extend the line of sight swarming technology would increase the other states may try to steal them and for surface vessels involved in lethality. But human cognition is critical use them against the US homeland. For a interdiction, as swarms could rove out in in limiting how many drones can be terrorist, seizing a loose nuclear weapon search of suspicious vessels, returning deployed. The operator must monitor for represents the most reliable - and information to a manned craft. collisions, environmental hazards, perhaps the only feasible - method of Swarming would enable such drones to potential defenders, all while acquiring such a device. The US military coordinate their searches, while coordinating the attack. Swarming deploys drone swarms to help. underwater drone swarms could be technology - and increased autonomy Teams of drones rove across the especially valuable in searching for generally - allows terrorists to employ North Korean countryside in search of undersea smuggling vehicles. Of course, even more drones. unidentified facilities. If a facility is manned ships will still be needed. Given these advantages, why take the located, soldiers move in to inspect, take Although drones could aid in shipboard risk of developing CBRN weapons? Few samples, and destroy any CBRN material searches, humans are likely to still be terrorist organisations elect to pursue discovered, and should the facility have necessary to open and search containers CBRN weapons and even fewer are been destroyed, drones can help too. for example. successful in doing so. Building CBRN Ground and aerial drones enter the ruins Drones can also help monitor land weapons is challenging even for well- to collect samples, photographs, and borders. As with interdiction at sea, they resourced organisations. Although Aum other information. could coordinate searches over lengthy Shinrikyo allegedly possessed assets of The same drones could also help borders. They could also be equipped with somewhere between $100m and $1bn, ensure security at the facility. Drones simple nonlethal weapons to incapacitate and had members with significant could help monitor perimeters for would-be smugglers or disable vehicle relevant technical expertise, many of its suspicious activity. This may be tyres until personnel can arrive. CBRN and other weapons efforts ranged especially useful as a stopgap at facilities from inept to ludicrous. Its bioweapons where security measures were weakened CBRN detection programme failed to harm anyone, or destroyed in the fighting. Drones fly through the streets of New including the cult member who fell into Weapons scientists could also supply York City in search of suspicious gaseous a vat of Clostridium botulinum, and its expertise to help other states and plumes. If one is identified, the drones nuclear weapons and earthquake- terrorist organisations develop CBRN move in to collect samples. Perhaps the generating programmes were detached weapons. If the military suspects a plume is just a cloud of steam, but if the from reality.10 known weapons scientist is an area, they drones identify a cloud of smoke or a could release a drone swarm to help hazardous chemical plume, more of them Opportunities search. Drones coordinate their searches can be called in to collect additional Thankfully, drone swarms also offer relying on facial recognition to identify samples. Where there is a major concern, opportunities for security and law potential suspects. DOD’s SCO has an alert is sent to first responders to enforcement officials to combat the already developed a simple swarm to investigate and initiate a response. threat of CBRN weapons. Particularly, search a village for a known terrorist.11 When the weather turns bad or drone swarms offer the potential for This policy challenge is not hypothetical. drones run low on power, they return to improved counterproliferation, CBRN After the fall of the USSR, the US helped the closest maintenance area. Some detection, and consequence secure the Soviet Union’s massive arsenal drones rely on mobile, ground management. Significant improvements of weapons and material. The US faced motherships that transport the swarm to in preventing and mitigating CBRN similar challenges after the first Gulf war new locations. Others return to fixed

CBRNe Convergence Canada, 16-17 April 2019 www.cbrneworld.com/CBRNe_Convergence_Canada

www.cbrneworld.com February 2019 CBRNe WORLD 47 CBRNe Feb2019Press:CBRNevPress25/02/201912:25Page48 48 CBRNe WORLD CBRNe security-service-disrupts-russian-cyber-operation-targeting-opcw https://www.government.nl/latest/news/2018/10/04/netherlands-defence-intelligence-and- Disrupts Russian Cyber Operation TargetingOperation 2018, OPCW,”Cyber 4, Russian October Disrupts Government of the Netherlands, “Netherlands Defence Intelligence and Security Services Security and Intelligence Defence “Netherlands Netherlands, the of Government Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in The Hague, disrupted by Dutch authorities. Dutch by disrupted Hague, The in Weapons Chemical of Prohibition attempt by Russian operatives to hack the headquarters of the Organisation for the for Organisation the of headquarters the hack to operatives Russian by attempt https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10736700.2018.1546902 2019, 2, January Review, (2017), http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00109-2(2017), enable cyber attacks based on localised vulnerabilities; see, for example, the April 2018 April the example, for see, vulnerabilities; localised on based attacks cyber enable http://tass.com/defense/921400 2016, 22, December Weapons,” (CBRN) Nuclear and Radiological, Biological, Chemical, Vol.8 Communications, Nature Robots,” for System Nervous “Mergeable Dorigo, Marco Securityswarms like this offer flexible, counterdrone,and other capabilities. incorporatefacial recognition, accountfor them. inhibitadversaries from anticipating and Dronesmay also vary their routing to areas,orhighly congested roadways. majorsport events, popular shopping Dronescould emphasise searches around attackwould inflict the most harm. searchesoncrowded areas when an patterns.Drones concentrate their allowdrones toadopt complex search http://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/Perdix%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 mountingondrones. detectors,making them more viable for miniaturisechemical and biological chip-scalechemistry is-already helping agents.Still, emerging microfluidic or- analysisfor possible biological weapons humanstoanalyse samples, asinlab Somedetectors will still likely need detectionmeasures that can beused. probablyconstrain the types ofCBRN weapons,early response saves lives. weapons,but especially for biological antidotesdeployed. For all CBRN canbegin, quarantines can be established, attackcan be detected, the faster response detectionstill matters. The quicker an attackand prevent harm. If not, early enough,they may be able to disrupt the attack.If responders mobilise quickly dronesdetect signatures of an impending tolimit harm. The best case is when maintenancefacilities. stationsonrooftops ordesignated areas,such asinductive recharging Drones allow closer proximity to a target for launching a cyber-attack.may a Proximity launching for target a to proximity closer allow Drones Twoin Years,”Swarms Mini-Drone Fight to Weapons Get to Army “Russian and Swarms Drone Destruction: “Swarming Bleek, C Philipp and Kallenborn Zachary and O’Grady,Mondada, Rehan Francesco LyhneChristensen, Anders Mathews, Nithin 2017, 1, June Sheet,” Fact “Perdix Office, Capabilities Strategic DOD Geert De Clercq, “Greenpeace Crashes Superman-Shaped Drone into French Nuclear French into Drone Superman-Shaped Crashes “Greenpeace Clercq, De Geert Disaster,”“Bhopal CBRNeWORLD CBRNdetection swarms can also Autonomyand communications also Ofcourse, the size ofdrones will Earlydetection of CBRN usage helps Fellowshipofthe Drone BN ovrec aaa 61 pi 09www.cbrneworld.com/CBRNe_Convergence_Canada 2019 April 16-17 Canada, Convergence CBRNe , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhopal_disaster Wikipedia, February 2019 February 13 contaminatedareas inlieu ofhumans so accessibility.Drones can enter therisk ofharm and offer greater equipmenttonormal use. quicklyreturn affected areas and cleanupcan help limit the damage and trainingwould beneeded. Improved Fewerpeople with specialised CBRN othersmonitor oreven inhibit runoff. contaminatedequipment orareas, while coordinatethe spraying orscrubbing of anattack. Some ofthe drones could theassessment. andimproves the overall quality of another.This allows greater efficiency assessone area, while two more assess coordinatetheir searches. Two drones andother radiation countermeasures. requestadditional potassium iodide pills increasedrisk tohuman life, responders expandthe quarantine area, and with the dronesdetect winda shift, responders andhow the disaster isevolving. Asthe todetermine the extent ofthe damage aidinresponse. Drones survey the wharf respondersdeploy swarma ofdrones to containedradioactive material. First lettertothe local paper claims the bomb SanFrancisco’s Fisherman’s Wharf. A Anexplosion interrupts peacefula day on Consequencemanagement addingorremoving capabilities. accordingtothe threat environment, wouldallow securitya swarm tochange, canmodulate their size. That ability demonstratedsimple drone swarms that broadprotection. Multiple studies have Nonproliferation Drone-basedresponse systems lower Dronescould also help clean upafter Thedrones communicate to TASS, idUSKBN1JT1JM greenpeace/greenpeace-crashes-superman-shaped-drone-into-french-nuclear-plant- Rector,” 13 12 11 10 9 8 (forthcoming 2019) (forthcoming University Defense National Destruction, Mass of Weapons of Study the for Weapons,” Nuclear and Biological, Chemical, for Implications Technologyits and https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/National_Intelligence_Strategy_2019.pdf Intelligence, National video/rMzZSMeETU_4wH7yAEMkTcSim_MOXD6f/the-coming-swarm/ documents/CNAS_AumShinrikyo_SecondEdition_English.pdf https://s3.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/ 2012, December ed,” 2nd Weapons, Chemical and https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2018/10/16/drone-airplane-crash-test-llr-orig.cnn https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1057610X.2018.1471972 2018, Terrorism30, & May Conflict , in Studies Weapons,” (CBRN) Nuclear and Radiological, Biological, Chemical, and Environmentalism “See What Happens When a Drone Hits an Airplane,” CNN, Airplane,” an Hits Drone a When Happens What “See Radical Earth: the of “Avatars Bleek, C. Philipp and Kallenborn Zachary Philipp C. Bleek and Cyrus Jabbari, “Honey, I shrunk the Lab: Emerging Microfluidics Emerging Lab: the “Honey,shrunk Jabbari, I Cyrus and Bleek C. Philipp 2019,” America, of States United the of Strategy Intelligence “National Swarm,” Coming “The TerroristsBiological How Develop Into Insights Shinrikyo: “Aum al., et Danzig Richard , July 3, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-nuclear-2018, 3, July Reuters, , https://www.cbs.com/shows/60_minutes/Minutes , 60 News: CBS leverageopportunities. shouldtake action tolower risks and warfare.Governments across the globe significantimplications for CBRN otheremerging technologies have becomingreality. Drone swarms and withrelatively small payload capacity. detectorsthat can bemounted ondrones applications,but this requires developing forsearching and targeting invarietya of droneswarms offer anexcellent platform thatcan separate and reform asswarm.a abilitytodeploy heterogeneous drones swarmcoordination, specifically the underlyingtechnologies related todrone moregeneric efforts todevelop exploration.Some ofthese hinge on forhomeland defence that merit Droneswarms offer novel opportunities impactonCBRN proliferation. Theyshould also consider the broader andthe availability ofcountermeasures. theextent ofthe risk totheir countries delivery.Governments should consider security,including byenabling CBRN presentnovel threats tohomeland shouldconsider: defenceand security. Governments offersopportunities for homeland technologythat poses novel threats and Droneswarms arerapidly a emerging Conclusion debrisorcollapsed buildings. treacherousenvironments with lota of especiallysignificant inhighly noone has torisk their life. This is Sciencefiction isincreasingly Miniaturisingdetectors: Drones and Developingdrone swarm platforms: Assessingthe threat: Drone swarms www.cbrneworld.com Director of Director Center