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CHILD POLICY This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public CIVIL JUSTICE service of the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE 6 INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS NATIONAL SECURITY The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY organization providing objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges facing the public SUBSTANCE ABUSE and private sectors around the world. TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore Pardee RAND Graduate School View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. This product is part of the Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS) dissertation series. PRGS dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world’s leading producer of Ph.D.’s in policy analysis. The dissertation has been supervised, reviewed, and approved by the graduate fellow’s faculty committee. Swarming and the Future of Warfare Sean J. A. Edwards This document was submitted as a dissertation in September, 2004 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Paul Davis (Chair), James Dewar, and Randy Steeb. The Pardee RAND Graduate School dissertation series reproduces dissertations that have been approved by the student’s dissertation committee. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2005 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2005 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] PREFACE The longstanding trends in warfare - greater non-linearity, dispersion, and weapon lethality - beg the question of whether a dramatic change in military doctrine and organization is necessary. One possibility worthy of consideration is a doctrine based on swarming and other nonlinear, dispersed tactics. Very little historical research has been conducted on the use of swarming. This work seeks to address this deficiency by analyzing twenty three case studies of past swarming in order to derive a framework for understanding swarm outcomes. The conclusions of this historical analysis are then applied to a discussion of future swarming by both friendly and enemy forces. This dissertation should be of interest to both military historians and analysts in the defense community concerned with understanding the potential of swarming for future rapid reaction forces and enemy ground forces. The results of the study highlight the limitations and constraints of swarming for both future friendly forces and for current insurgent swarms today (indeed, while this work is primarily theoretical and broad-based, it might be considered sensitive material in so far as it could be put to use by our enemies). The methods used to arrive at those results highlight how qualitative techniques can be used across many complex historical case studies. This research was supported by RAND’s Arroyo Center, a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the United Stated Army; the International Security and Defense Policy Center of RAND's National Defense Research Institute, a FFRDC sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified commands, and the defense agencies; the Strategy and Doctrine Program in RAND’s Project AIR FORCE, a FFRDC sponsored by the United States Air Force; and finally, the Department of the Army, Deputy Chief of Staff, G-2. Readers interested in this topic should also see Swarming and the Future of Conflict (RAND, 2000) by John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt. They believe swarming may eventually apply across the entire spectrum of conflict—from low to high intensity, and from civic-oriented actions to military combat operations on land, at sea, and in the air. Comments are invited. I can be reached at via email at [email protected]. iii CONTENTS Figures...............................................................ix Tables................................................................xi Abbreviations and Acronyms..........................................xiii Abstract............................................................xvii Acknowledgments......................................................xix 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................1 Previous Research Into Swarming..................................3 Relevance of Swarming for Policy Analysis........................5 Defeating Enemy Swarms ........................................6 The Relevance of Swarming for the Future Friendly Forces ......7 Future Rapidly Deployable Ground Forces .......................8 Offensive Swarming by Future US Light and Medium Forces ......11 Defensive Swarming by Future US Light and Medium Forces ......12 Organization of this Dissertation...............................14 2. METHODOLOGY ......................................................17 Phase 1. Case Study Research...................................18 Phase 2. Propose a Complete Theory of Swarming and Test It With the Comparative Method .....................................20 Comparative Method ...........................................22 Phase 3. Finalize a Theory and Model for Swarming..............25 Phase 4. Apply Theory and General Insights to the Policy questions ..................................................25 A Final Note....................................................26 3. HISTORY OF LINEAR WARFARE ........................................29 Introduction....................................................29 Defining Linear Warfare.........................................29 A Brief History of Conventional Linear Warfare..................32 Conclusion......................................................48 4. HISTORY OF NON-LINEAR WARFARE ....................................49 Introduction....................................................49 Defining Non-linear Warfare.....................................49 Sources of Non-linear Warfare...................................50 Maneuver Warfare .............................................50 Guerrilla Warfare and Special Operations .....................62 Swarming .....................................................66 Conclusion......................................................74 5. HISTORICAL ANALYSIS ..............................................77 Selection of Case Studies.......................................77 Identifying Variables...........................................84 Primary Variables ............................................85 Secondary Variables ..........................................90 Swarming Tactics................................................99 Formations ..................................................101 v Pulsing .....................................................103 Limitations of Swarming........................................104 Countermeasures to Swarming .................................105 Conclusion.....................................................110 6. TOWARDS A THEORY OF SUCCESSFUL SWARMING .........................113 A Theory of Swarming...........................................113 The Model......................................................117 Model Assumptions and Caveats ...............................121 Application of the Comparative Method..........................122 Final Revised Model............................................128 Conclusion.....................................................131 7. VAPOR SWARMING AND OTHER NON-LINEAR DISPERSED OPERATIONS (NLDOS) 133 Introduction...................................................133 Defining Non-Linear Dispersed Operations (NLDOs)...............134 NLDOs Compared to Conventional Warfare ......................139 The Principles of War for NLDOs................................140 Change Mass to Disperse/Mass ................................142 Replace Economy of Force with Simultaneity ..................145 Change Unity of Command to Unity of Effort ..................145 The Increasing Importance of Surprise .......................146 Conclusion.....................................................147

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