CGA by the Numbers: How is the natural gas heating season looking?

In this issue we look at how this winter’s heating season is progressing in Canada and how natural gas markets are responding.

WINTER HEATING REQUIREMENTS / LES BESOINS EN CHAUFFAGE L'HIVER What we see, after a fairly tame start, is that a colder 900 pattern settled in over December and set a new 800 Last heating maximum for the month. This pattern continued into 700 season

January. 600

jours de chauffage Current heating - 500 season Degrés The cold temperatures led some natural gas utilities to 400 5-yr max post record setting levels for daily natural gas use. But 300 their systems have been able to handle the demand. 200 5-yr min

The cold also means that natural gas storage levels 100 heating degree days / / days degree heating – close to their historic maximums at the start of the 0 heating season – are now being drawn down. So far Oct/oct. Dec/déc. Jan/janv. Feb/févr. Nov/nov. storage is tracking close to last year’s levels and Mar/mars Source: CGA, Environment Canada well above 5-year minimum levels. NATURAL GAS STORAGE / STOCKS DE GAZ NATUREL - CANADA (BILLIONS OF CUBIC FEET/MILLIARDS DE PIEDS CUBES)

To date natural gas utility commodity costs (i.e. the 900 Last cost for the natural gas molecules exclusive of 800 heating season other charges) remain very low, with most close to 700 Current 600 their five year minimum levels. This is not a surprising heating result given the abundance of natural gas resources 500 season 5-yr/ans

bcf/mpc 400 in Canada and across North America. max. 300

200 5-yr/ans Certain regional differences do emerge from min. the commodity data. Generally, these are due to 100 infrastructure issues, such as constrained pipeline 0

connectivity between a particular consuming region Oct/oct. Dec/dec. Jan/janv. Feb/févr. Nov/nov. and a natural gas supply basin, and/or less local Mar/mars storage capacity. Source: GMP First Energy, CGA

H EATING SEASON -C OMMODITY C OSTS S AISON DE C HAUFFAGE -C OUTS DU P RODUIT This is most evident when looking at the Atlantic $16 region where supply basin connectivity and storage $14 are most limited. Projects to improve pipeline Last heating $12 connectivity and/or storage capacity in the region season $10 would be expected, over time, to address this Current heating season $8 difference. $/GJ $6 5-yr max

$4 5-yr min $2

$0 BC Alberta Ontario Atlantic Quebec Manitoba CGA Average Saskatchewan Source: CGA, Statistics Canada 326-0009