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BMI-Tanzania-Country-Risk-Report IMPORTANT NOTICE: The information in this PDF file is subject to Business Monitor International Ltd’s full copyright and entitlements as defined and protected by international law. The contents of the file are for the sole use of the addressee. All content in this file is owned and operated by Business Monitor International Ltd, and the copying or distribution of this file, internally or externally, is strictly prohibited without the prior written permission and consent of Business Monitor International Ltd. If you wish to distribute the file, please email the Subscriptions Department at [email protected], providing details of your subscription and the number of recipients you wish to forward or distribute this information to. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International Ltd makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. Tanzania Country Risk Report Includes 10-year forecasts to 2025 www.bmiresearch.com Q4 2016 Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 5 Core Views ......................................................................................................................................................................................5 Key Risks ........................................................................................................................................................................................5 Chapter 1: Economic Outlook ................................................................................................................. 7 SWOT Analysis .......................................................................................................................................................... 7 BMI Economic Risk Index ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Economic Growth Outlook ....................................................................................................................................... 8 Infrastructure Investment Will Offer Tailwinds To Growth .........................................................................................................8 Tanzania's growth prospects are bright in 2016 and 2017, supported by robust infrastructure investment and stronger household spending. While increased taxes on the tourism and telecoms sectors will offer some headwinds, we nevertheless single out Tanzania as a growth outperformer in the next two years. GDP By Expenditure Outlook ................................................................................................................................... 9 TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS .....................................................................................................................................................................9 TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS ................................................................................................................................................... 9 TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS ........................................................................................................................................ 9 TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS .........................................................................................................................................................10 TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS ...................................................................................................................................................................10 Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook ................................................................................................................. 10 Broader Revenues Will Boost Budget In The Long Term .........................................................................................................10 A wide-reaching programme of infrastructure development will keep Tanzania's fiscal balance in deficit for the next decade. However, authorities are making long-term efforts to broaden the tax base and gas production will come online in 2020, bolstering the outlook for revenue collection. TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS .............................................................................................................................................. 11 External Trade And Investment Outlook ............................................................................................................... 12 Robust Foreign Investment Will Buoy External Position .........................................................................................................12 Tanzania's current account deficit will widen as fuel prices rise and major infrastructure projects ramp up, prompting a sharp increase in capital goods imports. However, robust investment will keep Tanzania's external position strong. Outlook On External Position ................................................................................................................................. 13 Monetary Policy ....................................................................................................................................................... 14 Monetary Policy On Hold Into 2017 ............................................................................................................................................14 The Bank of Tanzania (BoT) will keep the statutory minimum reserve ratio on hold at 10.0% in the coming quarters. With inflation and credit growth close to the BoT's targets, and growth poised to remain robust, we see little impetus for a shift in policy stance in the short term. Monetary Policy Framework ................................................................................................................................... 15 Currency Forecast ................................................................................................................................................... 16 TZS: Shilling To See Downside Break By 2017 .........................................................................................................................16 Our short-term outlook for the Tanzania shilling is neutral as we expect the Bank of Tanzania to maintain the current loose peg with the US dollar for the remainder of the year. We expect it to resume its gradual depreciatory trend in 2017 due to relatively high inflation but note that weakness will be much more mild compared to previous years TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST ..........................................................................................................................................................................17 Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast .................................................................................................................. 19 The Tanzanian Economy To 2025 .......................................................................................................................... 19 Robust Growth Hinges On Gas Investment ...............................................................................................................................19 We forecast a period of robust growth in the Tanzanian economy in the years ahead, as the country looks set to benefit from its nascent offshore gas sector, and the investment flowing in to develop this. Increasing regional integration and significant investment in infrastructure projects will also boost growth. The country remains beholden to the weather, however, through the importance of its agricultural sector and dependence on hydroelectricity, and this presents the greatest risk to our forecasts. TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS .................................................................................................................................... 19 Business Monitor International Ltd www.businessmonitor.com 3 TANZANIA Q4 2016 Chapter 3: Political Outlook .................................................................................................................. 23 SWOT Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................ 23 BMI Political Risk Index .......................................................................................................................................... 23 Domestic Politics..................................................................................................................................................... 24 Tighter Government Grip Hurting Business Environment .......................................................................................................24 The Magufuli government's implementation of tax and regulatory reform has been too rapid and forceful for many businesses.
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