THE ECONOMICS OF SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE Also by Colin Clark * AUSTRALIAN HOPES AND FEARS THE CONDITIONS OF ECONOMIC PROGRESS CRITIQUE OF RUSSIAN STATISTICS ECONOMIC POSITION OF GREAT BRITAIN (with A. C. Pigou) ECONOMICS OF IRRIGATION THE ECONOMICS OF 1960 THE NATIONAL INCOME, 1924-31 NATIONAL INCOME AND OUTLAY NATIONAL INCOME OF AUSTRALIA (with J. G. Crawford) POPULATION GROWTH AND LAND USE THE REAL PRODUCT OF SOVIET RUSSIA TAXMANSHIP WELFARE AND TAXATION

Also by Margaret Haswell * THE ECONOMICS OF DEVELOPMENT IN VILLAGE INDIA The Economics of Subsistence Agriculture

COLIN CLARK M.A. (Oxon.), M.A. (Cantab.), Hon. D.Sc. (Milan) Hon. D.Ec. (Tilburg) ForTMrly Professorial Fellow of Braserwse College, Oxford, and Dirutor, A,-icultural &orwmics Research Institu11, Oxford

AND MARGARET HASWELL B.Litt., M.A. (Oxon.) Fellow of St Hugh's College, Oxford Uniuulity L

Fourth Edit-ion

PALGRAVE MACMILLAN ISBN 978-0-333-11658-6 ISBN 978-1-349-15390-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-15390-9 ©Colin Clark and Margaret Haswell 1964, 1966, 1967, 1970 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 4th edition 1970 978-0-333-11863-4 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without permission.

First edition I964 Second edition I966 Third edition I967 Fourth edition I970

Published by MACMILLAN AND CO LTD London and Basingstoke Associated companies in New York Toronto Dublin Melbourne Johannesburg and Madras

Library of Congress catalog card no. 75-I2I34I

SBN (boards) 333 03688 3 (paper) 333 11658 5

The Papermac edition of this book is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, resold, hired out, or otherwise circulated without the publisher's prior consent, m any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. Contents

LIST OF TABLES Vl LIST OF CHARTS ix

PREFACE TO FOURTH EDITION Xl

AcKNOWLEDGMENTS XlV

I. FooD REQUIREMENTS I II. PRE-AGRICULTURAL MAN 27 III. SHIFTING AGRICULTURE 38 IV. AGRICULTURAL PROGRESS MEASURED IN GRAIN EQUIVALENTS 57 v. NATIONAL ToTALS oF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION 74 VI. LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY AND REQUIREMENTS 93 VII. PROGRAMMING FOR FULL EMPLOYMENT 131 VIII. WAGES AND LEISURE 139 IX. THE PRODUCTIVITY OF LAND I 52 X. RENTS AND PRICES OF AGRICULTURAL LAND 157 XI. CoNSUMPTION AT Low INCOME LEVELS 172 XII. TRANSPORT 191 XIII. THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURE IN NATIONAL EcoNOMic DEVELOPMENT 215 XIV. TRADE, Am AND DEVELOPMENT 225 APPENDIX 240 SELECT BIBLIOGRAPHY 245 INDEX 258 List of T abies

I. Food consumption and body weights of dif- ferent castes in an Indian village 8 II. Calorie requirements of men aged 2o-29, Central Africa 13 III. Recorded hours of physical activity of adults in different Malay communities 14 IV. Children's calorie requirements per day 16 V. Calorie requirements per day 17 VI. Average calorie intake- Mrica, Asia, Latin America 21 VII. Zande calorie intake curves and weight trends 22 VIII. Average diet of American Indians measured in calories per head per day 33 IX. Man-hour costs in Hanun6o swidden farming 46 X. Time expended by the Iban in man-hours per hectare 4 7 XI. Numerical data on shifting cultivators 5 I XII. Hausa consumption of farm products 71 XIII. Transition to draught animal cultivation m Uganda villages 73 XIV. Total product from agriculture expressed in kg. economic wheat equivalent/person/year 77 XV. Economic and calorie value of diets 81 XVI. Production other than cereals, roots, fruits and vegetables for local subsistence, in kg. wheat equivalent/ head of population/year 85 XVII. Growth-rates per cent per year - agriculture and population 86 XVIII. Agricultural and population rates of growth, India 88 XIX. Agricultural production in Soviet Russia 90 XX. Utilization of labour in agriculture as per- centage of available labour supply 95 LIST OF TABLES vii XXI. Egypt (number of days of work required for plant production per person in permanent labour force) 96 XXII. Labour requirements in a mountainous district of northern Greece 98 XXIII. Labour inputs and yields (day assumed 6! hours unless otherwise stated) 99 XXIV. General estimates of African productivities Ioo XXV. Gambia: average returns to labour in kg. per man-hour I02 XXVI. Marginal productivities in Rhodesia I09 XXVII. Underemployment in India 115 XXVIII. Indonesia -land/man ratios I I9 XXIX. Land requirements in some of the more densely populated eastern European and Medi- terranean climates I23 XXX. Yugoslavia -land/man ratios I24 XXXI. Collinson's programme for Tanzanian farming I33 XXXII. Marginal productivities of land for family of 2! labour units in Hokkaido I37 XXXIII. Marginal products and wages of labour in India I43 XXXIV. Marginal products in India I46 XXXV. Earnings of landless labourers in southern India expressed in kg. of grain equivalent I49 XXXVI. Wages in Madras Presidency in the nineteenth century ISO XXXVII. Agricultural wages in France ISI XXXVIII. Crop yields in metric tons/hectare I 55 XXXIX. Rents and prices of agricultural land I 66 XL. Japan- urban income elasticities 176 XLI. Income elasticities in Senegal 179 XLII. Income elasticity of demand for food 179 XLIII. Income elasticity of demand for non-food ~~~ I~ XLIV. Philippines: income elasticities between com- modities 18I XLV. Income elasticities in India 184 XLVI. Egyptian consumption functions 188 XLVII. Comparison:of the cost of different methods of transport I96 Vlll LIST OF TABLES XLVIII. Roads in India 209 XLIX. Estimates of cost of roads 210 L. Non-agricultural exports expressed in kg. economic wheat equivalent/person/year 217 LI. Japan: growth of non-agricultural employment 220 LII. Soviet Union: growth of non-agricultural employment 221 LIII. France: growth of non-agricultural employ- ment 222 LIV. Taiwan: agricultural productivity and non- agricultural employment 223 LV. Trade of developing countries (all values expressed in terms of their purchasing power over manufactured imports) 229 LVI. Quantum of food and raw materials exported (before taking into account change in terms of trade against manufactures) 233 LVII. Expected increases in agricultural production and exports of the subsistence agriculture countries on varying assumptions of income elasticity of demand for food and rate of productivity increase 236 List of Charts

I. Maize yields without manure or fertilizer on Mrican soils 44 II. Seasonal fluctuations of wholesale prices of maize in Accra, 1956-63 63 III. Utilization of labour in Korea, 1959 97 IV. Average returns of agriculture 102 V. Marginal returns of agriculture 103 VI. Marginal returns in India I o6 VII. Average productivities in Asia 107 VIII. Marginal productivities in Asia 108 IX. Effects of influenza pandemic of 1918-I9 in India I 10 X. Labour distribution of two farms in Toyama pre- fecture, Japan 132 XI. Greek Macedonia: distribution of labour required as percentage of labour available 135 XII. Marginal productivities in northern Greece 136 XIII. Land values in Italy, 1960 x6o XIV. Land values in Roumania, 1923--7 161 XV. Land values in Philippines, 1967 162 XVI. Land values in Poland, 1962 162 XVII. Rents and agricultural population density, Eng- land, 1770 163 XVIII. Income elasticity of demand for food in Vietnam 174 XIX. Food consumption in rural Madagascar 189 XX. Optimal road systems in Venezuela 208 XXI. The growth of non-agricultural employment 219 XXII. Individual data on the growth of non-agricultural employment 221 XXIII. The income elasticity of demand for imports 226 XXIV. Exports and imports of developing countries 228 XXV. Food and raw materials exports 232 Preface to the Fourth Edition

hough the post-Second World War development thrust has gained for the poorer countries an initial boost in rates of growth of total production, this has not led to sustained growth. Instead, we find that islands of relative prosperity have been created which have formed only small enclaves, while over• whelmingly large traditional sectors have stagnated. The 'De• velopment Decade' of the sixties has not resolved the problems of farmers in low-productivity areas, and we enter the seventies with many millions of the world's population still living by subsistence agriculture on a monotonous diet, while the threat of famine remains ever present for countless numbers. Other aspects of their poverty are lack of transport, clothing, housing, medicine and education, which often represent needs more urgent even than those for additional food. Industrialisation will inevitably continue to be a slow process, and many of these needs will have to be met by an expansion of the export and import trade of the subsistence agriculture countries, a problem to which little thought has yet been given. The fourth edition of this book, which covers fifty-seven countries, assembles further evidence on the manner in which a subsistence cultivator produces, how he occupies his working hours, his methods of transport and exchange, how he owns or leases his land, and how he spends his small amount of money. Additional chapters have been added on wages and leisure, pro• gramming for full employment, and the role of agriculture in national economic development. There has been much updating of the evidence presented in the third edition, and new and valuable economic relationships are revealed -largely attributable to improvement in the supply of information. Even so, there still remains a neglected field of study, and that is for many more village and farm-level investigations from which precise measure• ments can be made to provide a body of information on factors affecting farmers' decisions. In the absence of such in• formation, assumptions that agricultural education, extension Xll PREFACE TO THE FOURTH EDITION services and credit institutions will induce change in the rate of absorption of new agricultural factors may be completely erroneous. This edition sifts recent evidence in greater depths than has previously been possible with the data available to show the complexity of farmers' problems of land and labour use under different conditions of climate and soils in subsistence agriculture countries - which often leave subsistence cultivators idle over a considerable part of the year. National totals of agricultural pro• duction contained in Chapter V are supported by empirical evidence, which points to the need for re-programming output to provide for more regular employment. Attention is drawn to series of plans prepared for one or two countries; but the programmer who seeks to induce the subsistence cultivator to work much longer hours than he does now must offer him a high marginal return per hour in exchange. A number of production functions designed to throw light on the marginal productivity of labour are quoted in Chapter VI; they also indicate marginal produc• tivities of land, which appear to be highly variable. Important new material is included in this edition on food consumption covering a fifteen-fold range of incomes in rural Madagascar, which indicate that starchy staples are replaced with protein-rich foods with rising income. The Madagascar study also adds support to the considerable body of evidence appearing in earlier editions in a chapter on transport, that transport difficulties are checking economic development. In Madagascar, as elsewhere under similar conditions, this has led to concentration on high• value crops; an extreme case is quoted of one village where even the foot track is only open during the short dry season of two months of the year. The fact that traders are consequently forced to carry exceptionally large stocks, encouraging speculation in the necessities of life whose price may suddenly double or treble, driving poor farmers deeply into debt and to the pledging of future crops, is a further undesirable effect of the lack of transport. A much greater investment is called for in improved transport from major highways through to local farm-to-farm roads as a matter of absolute priority, without which the transition from a subsistence to a commercial economy cannot take place. A determinant of the role of agriculture in national economic development is the extent to which labour can be transferred from agricultural to non-agricultural activities with increased agricul- PREFACE TO THE FOURTH EDITION Xlll tural productivity. Individual data on the growth of non-agri• cultural employment are presented, and causes explaining a decline in agricultural employment are examined. Much of the final chapter on trade, aid and development is a reassessment by one of the authors on the acute economic problem for the developing countries which arises from their urgent need to import manufactured goods, most of which have to come from the developed countries. Values are quoted which show that the economic difficulties of subsistence agriculture countries are accentuated by the fact that many are substantial importers of food, raw materials and fuel, as well as manufactures. Whatever arguments may be advanced against it, most of the increase in agricultural production will have to come in the developing countries, because they will not be able to increase their manufactured exports much faster than they are now doing; and it is only through increased agricultural production that they can produce enough exports to buy their urgently needed imports. c. c. M.R.H. Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge the research assistance which they have received from Mr. Peter Martin. They further wish to acknowledge his help in preparing the manuscript of the present edition for press, which contains much new material and further chapters. In addition, the numerous charts appearing in the book were prepared by Mr. Martin.