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Food Security 2 3 Coordinating Lead Authors: Cheikh Mbow (Senegal), Cynthia Rosenzweig (The United States of 4 America) 5 Lead Authors: Luis G Final Government Distribution Chapter 5 IPCC SRCCL 1 Chapter 5: Food Security 2 3 Coordinating Lead Authors: Cheikh Mbow (Senegal), Cynthia Rosenzweig (The United States of 4 America) 5 Lead Authors: Luis G. Barioni (Brazil), Tim G. Benton (United Kingdom), Mario Herrero 6 (Australia/Costa Rica), Murukesan Krishnapillai (Micronesia/India), Emma Liwenga (Tanzania), 7 Prajal Pradhan (Germany/Nepal), Marta G. Rivera-Ferre (Spain), Tek Sapkota (Canada/Nepal), 8 Francesco N. Tubiello (The United States of America/Italy), Yinlong Xu (China) 9 Contributing Authors: Erik Mencos Contreras (The United States of America/Mexico), Joana 10 Portugal Pereira (United Kingdom), Julia Blanchard (Australia), Jessica Fanzo (The United States of 11 America), Stefan Frank (Austria), Steffen Kriewald (Germany), Gary Lanigan (Ireland), Daniel López 12 (Spain), Daniel Mason-D’Croz (The United States of America), Peter Neofotis (The United States of 13 America), Laxmi Pant (Canada), Renato Rodrigues (Brazil), Alex C. Ruane (The United States of 14 America), Katharina Waha (Australia) 15 Review Editors: Noureddine Benkeblia (Jamaica), Andrew Challinor (United Kingdom), Amanullah 16 Khan (Pakistan), John Porter (United Kingdom) 17 Chapter Scientists: Erik Mencos Contreras (The United States of America/Mexico), Abdoul Aziz 18 Diouf (Senegal) 19 Date of Draft: 07/08/2019 20 21 Subject to Copy-editing 5-1 Total pages: 200 Final Government Distribution Chapter 5 IPCC SRCCL 1 Table of Contents 2 Chapter 5: Food Security ................................................................................................................... 5-1 3 Executive summary .......................................................................................................................... 5-5 4 5.1 Framing and context ............................................................................................................ 5-8 5 5.1.1 Food security and insecurity, the food system, and climate change ................................ 5-8 6 5.1.1.1 Food security as an outcome of the food system ..................................................... 5-9 7 5.1.1.2 Effects of climate change on food security ............................................................ 5-10 8 5.1.2 Status of the food system, food insecurity, and malnourishment ................................... 5-12 9 5.1.2.1 Trends in the global food system ........................................................................... 5-12 10 5.1.2.2 Food insecurity status and trends ........................................................................... 5-14 11 5.1.3 Climate change, gender, and equity ............................................................................... 5-16 12 Box 5.1 Gender, food security, and climate change .................................................................. 5-17 13 5.1.4 Food systems in AR5, SR15, and the Paris Agreement ................................................. 5-18 14 5.1.4.1 Food systems in AR5 and SR15 ............................................................................ 5-19 15 5.1.4.2 Food systems and the Paris Agreement ................................................................. 5-20 16 5.1.4.3 Charting the future of food security ....................................................................... 5-21 17 5.2 Impacts of climate change on food systems ....................................................................... 5-22 18 5.2.1 Climate drivers important to food security .................................................................... 5-22 19 5.2.1.1 Short-lived climate pollutants ................................................................................ 5-23 20 5.2.2 Climate change impacts on food availability ................................................................. 5-24 21 5.2.2.1 Impacts on crop production .................................................................................... 5-24 22 5.2.2.2 Impacts on livestock production systems ............................................................... 5-28 23 5.2.2.3 Impacts on pests and diseases ................................................................................ 5-32 24 5.2.2.4 Impacts on pollinators ............................................................................................ 5-33 25 5.2.2.5 Impacts on aquaculture .......................................................................................... 5-34 26 5.2.2.6 Impacts on smallholder farming systems ............................................................... 5-35 27 5.2.3 Climate change impacts on access ................................................................................. 5-37 28 5.2.3.1 Impacts on prices and risk of hunger ..................................................................... 5-37 29 5.2.3.2 Impacts on land use ................................................................................................ 5-39 30 5.2.4 Climate change impacts on food utilisation ................................................................... 5-39 31 5.2.4.1 Impacts on food safety and human health .............................................................. 5-39 32 5.2.4.2 Impacts on food quality .......................................................................................... 5-40 33 5.2.5 Climate change impacts on food stability ...................................................................... 5-42 34 5.2.5.1 Impacts of extreme events ...................................................................................... 5-42 35 5.2.5.2 Food aid ................................................................................................................. 5-42 36 5.3 Adaptation options, challenges, and opportunities ............................................................ 5-43 37 5.3.1 Challenges and opportunities ......................................................................................... 5-43 38 Box 5.2 Sustainable solutions for food systems and climate change in Africa.......................... 5-44 39 5.3.2 Adaptation framing and key concepts ............................................................................ 5-45 40 5.3.2.1 Autonomous, incremental, and transformational adaptation ................................. 5-45 41 5.3.2.2 Risk management ................................................................................................... 5-47 42 5.3.2.3 Role of agroecology and diversification ................................................................ 5-48 43 Box 5.3 Climate change and indigenous food systems in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region 5-49 44 5.3.2.4 Role of cultural values ........................................................................................... 5-51 45 5.3.3 Supply-side adaptation ................................................................................................... 5-52 46 5.3.3.1 Crop production ..................................................................................................... 5-52 47 5.3.3.2 Livestock production systems ................................................................................ 5-53 Subject to Copy-editing 5-2 Total pages: 200 Final Government Distribution Chapter 5 IPCC SRCCL 1 5.3.3.3 Aquaculture, fisheries, and agriculture interactions ............................................... 5-53 2 5.3.3.4 Transport and storage ............................................................................................. 5-54 3 5.3.3.5 Trade and processing ............................................................................................. 5-54 4 5.3.4 Demand-side adaptation ................................................................................................. 5-55 5 5.3.5 Institutional measures .................................................................................................... 5-56 6 5.3.5.1 Global initiatives .................................................................................................... 5-56 7 5.3.5.2 National policies .................................................................................................... 5-57 8 5.3.5.3 Community-based adaptation ................................................................................ 5-58 9 5.3.6 Tools and finance ........................................................................................................... 5-59 10 5.3.6.1 Early Warning Systems .......................................................................................... 5-59 11 5.3.6.2 Financial resources ................................................................................................. 5-59 12 5.4 Impacts of food systems on climate change ....................................................................... 5-60 13 5.4.1 Greenhouse gas emissions from food systems ............................................................... 5-60 14 5.4.2 Greenhouse gas emissions from croplands and soils ..................................................... 5-61 15 5.4.3 Greenhouse gas emissions from livestock ..................................................................... 5-62 16 5.4.4 Greenhouse gas emissions from aquaculture ................................................................. 5-64 17 5.4.5 Greenhouse gas emissions from inputs, processing, storage, and transport................... 5-64 18 5.4.6 Greenhouse gas emissions associated with different diets ............................................
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