The Future Scenarios

Developing the Scenarios Once the policy approach for each scenario was defined, the financial, service, and capital assumptions were developed further and are detailed in three supporting plans: the Finance, Service, and Capital Plans. The three plans are currently being finalized and will be presented to the Joint Powers Board for adoption in Fall/Winter of 2004. The following are descriptions and objectives of each supporting plan.

FINANCE PLAN OBJECTIVES The Finance Plan details the funding assumptions and funding strategies for each scenario. Specifically, the Finance Plan objectives are to:

• Identify available funding over the next 20 years • Maximize the availability of federal and state revenues in cooperation with the member agencies • Identify discretionary sources that are not being utilized • Develop an inventory of potential innovative finance programs • Match available funding with eligible capital and service programs • Project funding shortfalls and develop strategies to deliver future programs

SERVICE PLAN OBJECTIVES The Service Plan outlines the service goals for each of the scenarios as well as a 20–year plan to deliver them. Its main objectives are to:

• Determine future level of service (Trains per day/per hour) • Design a flexible mix of service (Express/Limited/Local) • Identify the triggers (productivity or other performance measures) for changes in service • Identify the efforts needed to increase market share

As stated in the Guiding Principles, understanding market demand is the key to retaining existing riders and attracting new riders. It will influence the mix and

28 CALTRAIN STRATEGIC PLAN 2004 | 2023 THE FUTURE SCENARIOS

scheduling of Caltrain service, the nature and timing of capital improvements that support service and operations, and the overall passenger experience on Caltrain.

Meeting market demand requires:

• Creating a flexible mix of service—local, limited, express • Optimizing service levels and reducing overall trip times • Improving connections between Caltrain and other systems • Providing better access to stations (pedestrian, ADA, transit, bicycle and vehicular access) • Providing amenities to enhance the passenger experience

Universal Design Elements. Market research in the Caltrain service area reveals that many service improvements to transit will have broad appeal to existing and potential riders and will substantially increase ridership. These universal design elements address key traveler attitudes and desires, forming the core of the Caltrain brand identity:

• Privacy and Comfort is important to all of the service population in varying degrees. Travelers desire comfortable, stress-free travel and privacy from other travelers. Lower cost strategies include training and enforcement policies to control noisy or unruly passengers. Higher cost efforts include providing spacious seating on all trains and interiors with some separation from other travelers. • Personal Safety is perceived as very important to the vast majority of our service population while accessing or riding the system. Strategies to address the need for personal safety include zero tolerance policies for aggressive behavior and well-lighted, graffiti-free shelters with 911 emergency phones. • Addressing Flexibility, or the need to travel to many locations at times that vary from day to day, is a challenge for transit. Successful strategies include mid-day shuttle services at major business parks, station cars and other personal transport rentals, and improved land use to increase access to retail and commercial services.

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THE FUTURE SCENARIOS

• Reliability of service is a key goals of each scenario. The main objec- attribute that addresses passengers’ tives of the Capital Plan are to: desire to minimize unexpected delay. • Identify the magnitude of system Improving stations to eliminate rehabilitation and replacement “hold-out” delays, providing for • Identify the improvements required faster boarding of passengers to realize the service goals needing assistance, and increasing Caltrain track capacity will all • Develop conceptual cost estimates contribute to increased service reli- of proposed capital programs ability. Also important are reliable • Develop techniques for implementing connections to other rail services, cost-effective capital improvement buses, and shuttles. programs • Increasing the Ease of Transit Use Replacement and Rehabilitation projects is possible through service improve- include improvements needed to bring ments such as universal fare media the railroad into a good state of repair or including transfer costs in a sin- and to continue scheduled replacement gle fare, providing easy access to of infrastructure and rolling stock. transit information, and implement- The major projects in this category ing real-time information. In addition are bridge rehabilitation, rolling stock to making transit more user-friendly, overhaul and replacement, and track the increasing hassle and cost of rehabilitation, which comprise two-thirds auto use—external factors often of the approximate $900 million associated with parking and traffic Replacement and Rehabilitation pro- congestion—make transit a more gram (in 2003 dollars). Also included is attractive option for travelers. the reconstruction of stations to eliminate the hold-out rule at most stations. CAPITAL PLAN OBJECTIVES The replacement and rehabilitation The Capital Improvement Plan consists needs are generally consistent between of a wide array of improvements, scenarios. Any variations are due to categorized by Replacement and reconstruction projects that occur Rehabilitation, Enhancement, and under the enhancement program and Support programs. Regional extensions defer the need for replacement. are categorized as third-party projects. The Capital Plan supports the Service Enhancement projects include Plan by including improvements that upgrades to the system, new construc- are necessary to implement the service tion, and amenities. The major projects

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THE FUTURE SCENARIOS

TABLE 2: CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PLAN PROJECTS

REPLACEMENT AND REHABILITATION ADA Station & Rolling Stock Upgrades Parking Rehabilitation Bridge Rehabilitation Rolling Stock Overhaul & Replacement Capitalized Maintenance Seismic Retrofit Evaluation Communication Equipment Station Improvements (Access) Fare Equipment Replacement Station Improvements (Hold-out rule) Fencing Replacement Track Rehabilitation* Grade Crossing Rehabilitation Tunnel Rehabilitation Operational Facilities & Equipment

ENHANCEMENT PROGRAM Automatic Train Control Integrated Messaging Bicycle Facilities Intelligent Transportation Systems Bridge Construction Parking Expansion Construction/Maintenance/Equipment Right-of-Way Access Control Contractor Operator Support Security Electrification Signal Construction* Fare Equipment Station Improvements Fencing Track Construction* Fiber Optic Communications Transit-0riented/Joint Development Grade Separations* Tunnel Construction

SUPPORT PROGRAM Capital Program Support, Development Project Development

REGIONAL EXTENSIONS (THIRD PARTY PROJECTS) Downtown San Francisco Extension Monterey/Salinas Extension Dumbarton Rail Corridor

* Indicates improvements typically included in capacity expansion projects.

in this category include electrification and are necessary to increase express and improvements related to capacity service in the peak periods. The capacity expansion, such as grade separations expansion projects are typically pack- and track construction. Capacity aged together because it is more expansion projects can include track cost-effective to implement them rehabilitation as well as new construction simultaneously.

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THE FUTURE SCENARIOS

The cost of the Enhancement program projects, and their capital costs are not varies widely between the scenarios included in the Caltrain Capital and depends primarily on the inclusion Improvement Plan. Additional operating of electrification and the extent of costs associated with the extension to capacity expansion along the corridor. Downtown San Francisco have been Due to inflation, the timing of projects included in the Enhanced Scenario will also affect costs; however, only beginning in 2010 and Build-Out constant dollars (2003) are shown in Scenario beginning in 2014. Operating the Strategic Plan. In the case of elec- costs that would be incurred by the trification, the timing and coordination Joint Powers Board for the Dumbarton with other improvements is also criti- and Monterey/Salinas projects have not cal. Estimates show that electrifying been determined. the railroad prior to the construction of The financial, service, and capital a grade separation can increase capital characteristics of the scenarios are costs (of electrification and the grade summarized in Tables 3 and 4 (pages separation) in the vicinity of the grade 33 and 34) and are described further separation project by 65 percent. on the following pages, followed by a The Support program includes capital comparison and evaluation of all three program development and project scenarios. All costs and revenues are development. shown in 2003 dollars and shortfalls do not include potential revenue from Regional Extensions include the exten- innovative funding sources. sion to Downtown San Francisco to a rebuilt Transbay Terminal, the Dumbarton Rail Corridor, and the extension to Monterey/Salinas. These extensions are considered to be third-party

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TABLE 3: SCENARIO CHARACTERISTICS SUMMARY— STATUS QUO AND MODERATE GROWTH

FINANCE (IN 2003 $) STATUS QUO MODERATE GROWTH Operations Farebox Revenue Historical Some Growth Member Contributions Stabilized* Stabilized* or Decrease Capital Federal/State/Local Historical Historical San Francisco Sales Tax Through 2034 Through 2034 San Mateo Sales Tax Through 2008 Through 2008 Santa Clara Sales Tax Through 2036 Through 2036 High-Speed Rail Bonds None None Innovative Techniques None None

SERVICE BY 2023 STATUS QUO MODERATE GROWTH Express Service Goal 10 trains/weekday 20 trains/weekday one-hour headways one-hour headways Weekday Total Trains 86 100 Saturday/Sunday Trains 32/30 32/30 Shuttle Buses (station access) 45 59 Customer Amenities Low Low Average Weekday Ridership 43,700 59,600 Annual Ridership 14,369,000 19,484,000 Annual Operating Cost Avg./Total $83M / $1.67B $90M / $1.81B Annual Member Contrb. Avg./Total $44M / $873M $44M / $872M

CAPITAL (IN 2003 $) STATUS QUO MODERATE GROWTH Replacement & Rehabilitation Same Rehabilitation needs in all scenarios Capacity Expansion North quadrant North and (partial) (SM County grade South quadrants separations) by 2011 Electrification (Revenue Service) None 2018 Regional Extensions (Third-Party Projects) Downtown San Francisco No No Dumbarton No No Salinas/Monterey No No Calif. High-Speed Rail No No Total Capital Program Cost $1.151 Billion $2.000 Billion (Shortfall) without innovative sources $0M Assumes ($217M) Assumes and HSR bonds $159M local match $164M local match

Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized. *Member contributions that are stabilized are constant year-to-year with the exception of increases due to inflation.

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TABLE 4: SCENARIO CHARACTERISTICS SUMMARY— ENHANCED AND BUILD-OUT

FINANCE (IN 2003 $) ENHANCED BUILD-OUT Operations Farebox Revenue Growth Growth Member Contributions Growth Growth Capital Federal/State/Local Additional Additional Plus San Francisco Sales Tax Through 2034 Through 2034 San Mateo Sales Tax Through 2029 Through 2029 Santa Clara Sales Tax Through 2036 Through 2036 High-Speed Rail Bonds None Passes in 2006 or 2008 Innovative Techniques Yes Yes

SERVICE BY 2023 ENHANCED BUILD-OUT Express Service Goal 36 trains/weekday 36 trains/weekday half-hour headways half-hour headways Weekday Total Trains 136 138 Saturday/Sunday Trains 32/32 32/32 Shuttle Buses (station access) 7878 Customer Amenities Medium-High High Average Weekday Ridership 69,400 72,100 Annual Ridership 22,750,000 23,626,000 Annual Operating Cost Avg./Total $109M / $ 2.18B $105M / $2.09B Annual Member Contrb. Avg./Total $57M / $1.13B $53M / $1.06B

CAPITAL (IN 2003 $) ENHANCED BUILD-OUT Replacement & Rehabilitation Same Rehabilitation needs in all scenarios Capacity Expansion North, Central, and South Entire route four-tracked quadrants by 2013 and grade separated by 2016 Electrification (Revenue Service) 2008 2014 or earlier Regional Extensions (Third-Party Projects) Downtown San Francisco 2010 By 2014 Dumbarton Yes Yes Salinas/Monterey Yes Yes Calif. High-Speed Rail No By 2016 Total Capital Program Cost $2.490 Billion $4.972 Billion (Shortfall) without innovative ($629M) Assumes ($3B) Assumes approx. sources and HSR bonds $181M local match $180M local match

Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized.

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TABLE 5: STATUS QUO SCENARIO CHARACTERISTICS

SERVICE 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2023 Weekday Express Trains 0 10 10 10 36 10 Weekday Limited Trains 14 37 37 37 37 37 Weekday Local 62 39 39 39 39 39 Weekday Total Trains 76 86 86 86 86 86 Saturday/Sunday Trains 0 32/30 32/30 32/30 32/30 32/30 Shuttle Buses (station access) 40 41 45 45 45 45 Average Weekday Ridership 28,000 29,300 33,100 37,300 41,200 43,700 Annual Ridership (Caltrain) 7,362,000 14,369,000

OPERATIONS (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL TOTAL Operating Costs A 407.7 421.0 421.0 421.0 1,670.5 Operating Revenue Farebox 136.8 159.3 178.0 196.1 670.2 Other 38.9 29.4 29.4 29.4 127.1 Member Contributions (all) 232.0 232.2 213.6 195.5 873.3 TOTAL Operating Revenue 407.7 421.0 421.0 421.0 1,670.5 Avg. Annual Member Contributions (all) 46.4 46.4 42.7 39.1 43.7

CAPITAL (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL Maintenance Facility (Committed Project) 53.0 0 0 0 53.0 Replacement & Rehabilitation 150.0 279.0 224.2 177.6 830.7 Enhancements 232.6 0 0 0 232.6 Support 6.5 6.0 11.5 11.0 35.0 TOTAL Capital Costs 442.0 285.0 235.7 188.6 1,151.3 Average Annual Cost 88.4 57.0 47.1 37.7 57.6 Capital Funding Federal 201.1 230.3 186.3 149.2 767.0 State 18.0 6.0 11.5 11.0 46.5 Local Match (Member Agencies) 43.8 48.7 37.9 28.4 158.7 Other B 179.10 0 0179.1 TOTAL Capital Revenue 442.0 285.0 235.7 188.6 1,151.3 Surplus/(Shortfall) 00000

Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized. A Operating costs in the first five-year period are lower because the first year includes service levels of 76 trains per day (no express service). Operating costs include electrification and extension to Downtown San Francisco starting in 2014. B Other Capitol Funding consists of San Mateo Measure A funds remaining minus San Mateo local matching funds.

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FUTURE SCENARIOS

FUTURE SCENARIO A A The Status Quo Scenario

Keep the railroad operating at current levels of service and limit investment in OBJECTIVE improvements other than normalized rehabilitation and replacement.

The Status Quo Scenario is the most fiscally conservative of the four scenarios. It GENERAL assumes that current levels of funding will support 86-train weekday service CHARACTERISTICS planned for 2004, normalized infrastructure rehabilitation and replacement, and some capacity expansion in San Mateo County. It does not include the extension to downtown San Francisco, extensions across the Dumbarton Bridge or to Salinas/ Monterey, or High-Speed Rail in California. Details of the Staus Quo Scenario characteristics in five-year increments are shown in Table 5 (page 35).

The primary service goal is to maintain existing (2004) levels of service1, including SERVICE initial Caltrain Express or “Baby Bullet” service, through the 20-year period. The Status IMPROVEMENTS Quo level-of-service on a typical weekday is capped at 86 trains per day, which includes 10 express trains. A flexible mix of local, limited, and express trains would have to be scheduled to optimize service with existing infrastructure. Weekend and Gilroy service would not change. Up to 45 shuttle bus routes would provide station access services.

The capital improvements in the Status Quo Scenario consist primarily of scheduled CAPITAL replacement and rehabilitation projects, some station and platform improvements to IMPROVEMENTS remove the hold-out rule2, programmed capacity expansion projects (grade separations in San Mateo County), and construction of the Caltrain Maintenance Facility. These are projects with committed or programmed funds. There would be no High- Speed Rail system along the Caltrain corridor in the Status Quo Scenario. In this scenario, Capacity Expansion projects including track rehabilitation, grade separations, signal construction, and track construction, comprise approximately $259 million (in 2003 dollars) of the total expenditures. These improvements, with the exception of track rehabilitation, are funded by existing San Mateo County Measure A sales tax revenue.

1 Caltrain Express or “Baby Bullet” is a limited stop service which serves key stations along the Caltrain route. Express service offers travel times of less than one hour between San Jose and San Francisco, compared to the one-and-a-half hour travel time on local trains. 2 The hold-out rule is a safety measure that prevents a train from entering a station while another train is at the station boarding or unloading passengers. The hold-out rule is enforced at stations where passengers must cross active tracks to access a train, and can result in delays. Improvements associated with the Caltrain Express project will remove the hold-out rule at four stations leaving a total of 12 hold-out stations by June 2004.

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The capital program in the Status Quo Scenario assumes only current levels of FINANCIAL funding would be available through the 20-year period. Federal, State, and local RESOURCES match funds for capital improvements are assumed to remain at historic levels. Remaining funds from existing San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara county sales tax measures would remain through 2008 and 2036, respectively. Funds from the reauthorization of the sales tax measure in San Mateo County are not included in the Status Quo assumptions.

Operating funds consist primarily of contributions from the member agencies and farebox revenues. In the Status Quo Scenario, projected ridership and farebox revenues would experience some growth, primarily as a result of population and job growth in the area, since the level-of-service on Caltrain would not change. Member agency contributions would remain constant or decrease as ridership and farebox revenues increase.

Caltrain Express, included in all scenarios, will improve travel times for passen- PASSENGER gers using this service. Passengers using the local service will experience no EXPERIENCE service increases over time. In the Status Quo Scenario, most of the capital program would consist of rehabilitation and replacement, which would not make a noticeable difference to the passenger experience.

The Status Quo Scenario will result in an increase in annual ridership and rev- KEY enues. Ridership is projected to increase by approximately 100 percent over FINDINGS the 20-year period and operating costs will stabilize. Member subsidies will stabilize or gradually decrease in the future if farebox revenues increase. Most of the $1 billion capital program would support rehabilitation and replacement to keep the railroad in a good state of repair and avoid a system of deferred maintenance.

Suggested triggers for switching from the Status Quo to the Moderate Growth Scenario would include the availability of additional funding resources, increased demand as measured by productivity criteria (load factors), or demand for improved service that require additional capacity expansion. The member agencies would have to agree on the level of service and associated operating costs and capital investment required to provide this service.

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FUTURE SCENARIO B B The Moderate Growth Scenario

Optimize the operating and capital programs with limited increases to funding OBJECTIVE resources, service, and capital improvements.

The Moderate Growth Scenario is a steady growth scenario. It assumes that commit- GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS ted and programmed funding will allow for normalized infrastructure rehabilitation, some capacity expansion projects to improve the reliability of Caltrain Express, a nominal increase in service, and electrification of the Caltrain line.3 It does not include the extensions to downtown San Francisco, across the Dumbarton Bridge or to Salinas/Monterey; or High-Speed Rail in California. A summary of the Moderate Growth Scenario characteristics are shown in Table 6 (page 40).

The primary service goal is to deliver reliable express service at one-hour headways, SERVICE IMPROVEMENTS primarily in the peak periods. The Moderate Growth level-of-service by 2023 on a typical weekday is capped at 100 trains per day, which includes 20 express trains. A flexible mix of local, limited, and express trains would have to be scheduled to optimize service with existing and planned capacity expansion. Gilroy service will increase gradually over time, with trains added to the peak-direction, to the reverse- direction, and possibly one train in the mid-day, for a total of ten trains in each direction by 2023. Up to 59 shuttle bus routes would provide station access services.

The capital improvements in the Moderate Growth Scenario include critical replace- CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS ment and rehabilitation projects, station and platform improvements to remove the hold-out rule, and capacity expansion projects to meet the one-hour headway and service reliability goals. Also included in the capital program are enhancements, such as construction of grade separations in key locations to improve safety, accommodate Caltrain Express, and accomodate increases in Gilroy service; electrification of the line and replacement of rolling stock; ADA compliance through station improvements; replacement and installation of fencing in select locations along the rail corridor; and moderate improvements to communications and station access for all modes. It is anticipated that electrification would come on line later in the Moderate Growth Scenario than in other scenarios due to the time required to accumulate ade- quate funding. Parking expansion would be limited, and it is anticipated that an aggressive parking management plan would be necessary to address the high demand for parking at specific stations. In this scenario, Capacity Expansion projects including track rehabilitation, grade separations, signal construction, and track construction, comprise approximately $298 million (in 2003 dollars) of the total expenditures.

3 The electrification project would convert Caltrain from a diesel 38 CALTRAIN STRATEGIC PLAN 2004 | 2023 engine-powered rail system to an electrified system. FUTURE SCENARIOS

The capital program in the Moderate Growth Scenario assumes a “pay-as-you- FINANCIAL go” approach. Federal, State, and local match funds for capital improvements RESOURCES are assumed to remain at historic levels for the 20-year period. Remaining funds from existing San Mateo and Santa Clara county sales tax measures are assumed to remain, as well as the new sales tax measure in San Francisco. However, the reauthorization of the sales tax measure in San Mateo County is not included in the Moderate Growth assumptions. The electrification project is included in Track 1 of MTC’s Regional Transportation Plan and has a funding plan under MTC’s Regional Transit Expansion Policy, Resolution 3434. The timing of the availability of electrification funds varies among the member agencies, therefore, in this scenario it is assumed that funding for the project from MTC and the member agencies will not be available until 2014.

Caltrain Express, included in all scenarios, will improve travel times for passen- PASSENGER EXPERIENCE gers using this service. Passengers using the local service will experience nominal service increases over time. Programmed capital improvements are designed to reduce delays and improve travel time for all passengers. These projects will require up to ten years to complete, therefore, time-savings related to these improvements will be realized gradually. Passengers could benefit from a combination of local, limited, and express service once these improvements are in place.

In the Moderate Growth Scenario, ridership is projected to increase by nearly KEY FINDINGS 165 percent between 2004 and 2023. The additional increase over the Status Quo ridership is primarily due to the increase in peak period express service, in addition to more Gilroy service and better station access via shuttle buses. While operating costs will increase over time, it is estimated that average annual operating subsidies will eventually decrease due to growth in farebox revenues. The $2 billion capital program will result in an estimated $217 million shortfall.

The potential triggers for shifting from the Moderate Growth to the Enhanced Scenario include availability of additional funding sources, increased demand as measured by productivity criteria (load factors), or demand for improved service that requires additional capacity expansion and customer amenities.

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TABLE 6: MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO CHARACTERISTICS SUMMARY

SERVICE 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2023 Weekday Express Trains 0 10 14 16 18 20 Weekday Limited Trains 14 37 38 40 40 40 Weekday Local 62 39 40 40 40 40 Weekday Total Trains 76 86 92 96 98 100 Saturday/Sunday Trains 0 32/30 32/30 32/30 32/30 32/30 Shuttle Buses (station access) 40 41 46 51 56 59 Average Weekday Ridership 28,000 30,600 38,300 46,600 54,500 59,600 Annual Ridership 7,362,000 19,483,700

OPERATIONS (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL TOTAL Operating Costs A 416.0 450.5 456.3 484.4 1,807.2 Operating Revenue Farebox 143.8 182.8 220.2 256.0 802.9 Other 38.9 29.9 31.1 32.3 132.2 Member Contributions (all) 233.4 237.7 205.0 196.0 872.1 TOTAL Operating Revenue 416.0 450.5 456.3 484.4 1,807.2 Avg Annual Member Contributions (all) 46.7 47.5 41.0 39.2 43.6

CAPITAL (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL Maintenance Facility (Committed Project) 53.0 0 0 0 53.0 Replacement & Rehabilitation 150.0 301.7 252.6 189.0 893.1 Enhancements 232.6 89.0 648.7 48.2 1,018.5 Support 6.5 6.0 11.5 11.0 35.0 TOTAL Capital Costs 442.0 396.7 912.7 248.2 1,999.5 Average Annual Cost 88.4 79.3 182.5 49.6 100.0 Capital Funding Federal 201.2 245.6 314.6 149.9 911.3 State 18.0 6.0 76.5 11.0 111.5 Local Match (Member Agencies) 43.8 52.4 39.2 28.5 163.9 OtherB 179.1 0 417.0 0 596.0 TOTAL Capital Revenue 442.0 304.1 847.3 189.4 1,782.7 Surplus/(Shortfall) 0 (92.6) (65.4) (58.8) (216.8)

Notes: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized. A Operating costs in the first five-year period are lower because the first year includes service levels of 76 trains per day (no express service). Operating costs include electrification starting in 2018. B “Other” Capital Funding consists of funds from and remaining San Mateo Measure A minus local matching funds and VTA 2000 Measure A funds. It also includes funds from CARB/AB434 and Salvage Value for diesel locomotives replaced with electric locomotives.

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TABLE 7: ENHANCED SCENARIO CHARACTERISTICS SUMMARY

SERVICE 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2023 Weekday Express Trains 0 12 20 28 36 36 Weekday Limited Trains 14 37 42 45 48 50 Weekday Local 62 39 42 45 48 50 Weekday Total Trains 76 88 104 118 132 136 Saturday/Sunday Trains 0 32/30 32/32 32/32 32/32 32/32 Shuttle Buses (station access) 40 42 52 62 72 78 Average Weekday Ridership 28,000 30,900 41,300 52,700 63,500 69,400 Annual Ridership 7,362,000 22,749,700

OPERATIONS (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL TOTAL Operating CostsA 425.6 521.2 591.6 636.7 2,175.1 Operating Revenue Farebox 148.7 200.3 251.1 299.0 899.2 Other 39.3 31.7 34.1 36.6 141.7 Member Contributions (all) 237.6 289.2 306.4 301.2 1,134.2 TOTAL Operating Revenue 425.6 521.2 591.6 636.7 2,175.1 Avg Annual Member Contributions (all) 47.5 57.8 61.3 60.2 56.7

CAPITAL (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL Maintenance Facility (Committed Project) 53.0 0 0 0 53.0 Rehabilitation & Replacement 150.0 289.1 241.3 186.5 866.9 Enhancements 841.1 505.6 163.6 77.9 1,588.2 Support 6.5 6.0 11.5 11.0 35.0 TOTAL Capital Costs 1,050.5 800.7 416.4 275.4 2,543.0 Average Annual Cost 212.0 160.1 69.0 55.1 124.1 Capital Funding Federal 201.3 266.2 302.0 148.4 917.8 State 18.0 6.0 76.5 11.0 111.5 Local Match (Member Agencies) 43.8 57.7 51.5 28.1 181.0 Other B 179.1 107.5 417.0 0 703.5 TOTAL Capital Revenue 442.1 437.3 847.0 187.5 1,913.8 Surplus/(Shortfall) (608.4) (363.4) 430.6 (87.9) (629.2)

Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized. A Operating costs in the first five-year period are lower because the first year includes service levels of 76 trains per day (no express service). Operating costs include electrification starting in 2008 and extension to Downtown San Francisco in 2010. B “Other” Capital Funding consists of funds from remaining San Mateo Measure A minus local matching funds, San Mateo Reauthorization, and VTA 2000 Measure A funds. It also includes funds from CARB/AB434 and Salvage Value for diesel locomotives replaced with electric locomotives.

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FUTURE SCENARIO C C The Enhanced Scenario

Capture latent market demand by providing optimal levels of service, improve OBJECTIVE station access and regional connectivity, and invest in key system improvements and amenities that will attract passengers and build ridership.

The Enhanced Scenario embodies the vision of Caltrain by encompassing most GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS of the improvements and passenger amenities that would begin to transform Caltrain into a “world-class” railroad. It includes major improvement projects that will improve service and the passenger experience. It assumes that route extensions to downtown San Francisco, across the Dumbarton Bridge to the East Bay, and to Salinas/Monterey will be constructed. Table 7 (page 41) details the characteristics of the Enhanced Scenario.

The service goal in the Enhanced Scenario is to improve express train service SERVICE IMPROVEMENTS by providing half-hour headways (from one-hour headways in the Status Quo and Moderate Growth Scenarios) primarily in the peak periods and part of the off-peak periods. The Enhanced Scenario would also include improvements in connectivity and passenger amenities that will build ridership. A flexible combination of local, limited, and express service will be provided to meet a variety of travel needs. Target increases in service will include an average of two additional weekday trains each year, with a goal of 136 weekday trains by 2023, and additional Gilroy service. Up to 78 shuttle bus routes would provide station access services.

The Enhanced Scenario includes all of the capital improvements in the Moderate CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS Growth Scenario, as well as access improvements, enhanced passenger amenities, and route extensions. In conjunction with the electrification project, both the passenger cars and diesel locomotives would be replaced, giving Caltrain an entirely different look and feel, as well as a new image. Route extensions to downtown San Francisco, across the Dumbarton Bridge to the East Bay, and to Salinas/Monterey would improve regional connectivity. This scenario assumes there would be no high-speed rail in California in the 20-year timeframe. In this scenario, Capacity Expansion projects comprise approximately $610 million (in 2003 dollars) of the total expenditures.

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The Enhanced Scenario assumes there will be enhanced levels of funding from FINANCIAL Federal, State, and local sources, as well as innovative financing techniques, to fund RESOURCES and implement capital improvements. San Mateo County will introduce a measure to add to/reauthorize the half-cent countywide sales tax on its 2004 ballots. In the Enhanced Scenario, it is assumed that this ballot measure will pass4. The sales tax expenditure plans for the measures will specify the amounts available for Caltrain improvements. All three route extensions would be funded by third parties. Additional funding advocacy would be required to pursue accelerated implementa- tion of all the capital projects in the Enhanced Scenario. The feasibility of various state and federal innovative financing techniques will require further investigation. Revenues from potential innovative sources are not included in the estimates of capital shortfalls.

PASSENGER Once the “Enhanced Caltrain” is operational, there will be frequent express service EXPERIENCE every half-hour in the peak periods as well as some service in the off-peak. Passengers will be riding sleek, modern trains that are more comfortable, quieter, faster, and reliable. Many of the stations would be rehabilitated or reconstructed to facilitate rapid boarding, include passenger amenities, improve station access, and expand parking at selected locations.

Passengers will be able to travel further on Caltrain with route extensions to downtown San Francisco, the East Bay via the Dumbarton corridor, and Salinas/ Monterey. Important connections with other transit operators will be available at a new northern terminus at the Transbay Terminal in downtown San Francisco (AC Transit, BART, Muni, Golden Gate, and intercity bus), at the Dumbarton Terminus in Union City (ACE, AC Transit, BART, Capitol Corridor), at the Santa Clara station (BART), and Diridon Stations (ACE, Amtrak, BART, Capitol Corridor, VTA).

KEY Ridership is projected to increase by about 200 percent over the 20-year period. FINDINGS Operating costs will increase over time as well as member subsidies.

In the Enhanced Scenario, the electrification project has a completion date of 2008. Due to an inconsistency in programming of electrification funds by the member agencies, funding for the electrification project will not be available until 2014. A plan to fund electrification in the near-term will need to be devised. The total capital program cost is nearly $2.5 billion with an estimated shortfall of approximately $629 million. This does not include potential resources from innovative financing techniques. These innovative sources will take time to establish.

The potential trigger to shift from the Enhanced to the Build-out Scenario is the passage of the statewide high-speed rail bond measure in November 2006.

4 The San Francisco Measure passed in November 2003.

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FUTURE SCENARIO D D The Build-out Scenario

Capture a significant market share of trips by providing enhanced “world OBJECTIVE class” service, complemented by the intra-state connectivity and amenities offered by the connection to High-Speed Rail.

The Build-Out Scenario is the “ultimate” future scenario for Caltrain and assumes GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS that High-Speed Rail (HSR) would operate on the Caltrain right-of-way. It includes all the characteristics and amenities of the Enhanced Scenario and rail connectivity with all the major metropolitan areas in California via HSR. The Build-Out Scenario includes improvements that will allow HSR to operate on the Caltrain right-of-way and assumes major funding resources for these improvements would be made available through high-speed rail bonds and other innovative financing techniques. The characteristics of the Build-Out Scenario are summarized in Table 8 (page 46).

SERVICE The Build-Out Scenario is very similar to the Enhanced Scenario in many ways in IMPROVEMENTS terms of Caltrain service. One of the added service benefits would be that the HSR system would be accessible through two or more Caltrain stations, making statewide intercity rail travel available to Caltrain passengers as early as 2016. Caltrain would function as a feeder system for HSR passengers as well, with transfers taking place between HSR and Caltrain. Additional work must be performed to optimize the integration of HSR and Caltrain. Up to 78 shuttle bus routes would provide station access services.

The Build-Out Scenario includes several major infrastructure modifications that CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS would allow HSR and Caltrain to operate on the same line. The Build-Out Scenario includes a fully grade-separated alignment and widening of the entire route to accommodate four tracks. Some stations would have to be relocated or reconstructed. Platform configurations would have to be optimized to accommodate HSR and Caltrain. A new signal and communications systems would also be required. The electrification project and extension to Downtown San Francisco begin operation by 2014 at the latest but could be accelerated depending on the coordination with other projects such as grade separations and track capacity improvements related to HSR. In this scenario, capacity expansion projects including track rehabilitation, bridge construction, grade separations, signal construction, station improvements, track construction and tunnel construction comprise approximately $3 billion (in 2003 dollars) of the total expenditures.

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The Build-Out Scenario includes the enhanced levels of funding in the FINANCIAL Enhanced Scenario plus new sources of funding, primarily from the RESOURCES proposed high-speed rail bond measure scheduled for voter consideration in November 2006. While the high-speed rail bonds would not supplant other innovative financing techniques, they would guarantee a significant portion of funds for major Caltrain improvements. Revenues from high-speed rail bonds or potential innovative sources are not included in the estimates of capital shortfalls.

The total number of system improvements included in the Build-Out Scenario PASSENGER would be greater than in the other scenarios. In addition to the passenger EXPERIENCE experience benefits of electrification and service extensions, the Build-Out includes extensive grade separations, track capacity improvements, and station reconstruction that will dramatically affect the passenger experience. A grade-separated route will increase service reliability, reduce delays, improve safety, improve local pedestrian and traffic circulation, and reduce noise. Additional track capacity provided by four-tracking will allow the flexibility required for high levels of express service. With statewide High-Speed Rail service available in 2016, it is anticipated that regional and intrastate connectivity will be greatly improved.

In the absence of constructability issues, funding for High-Speed Rail could KEY accelerate the timing of many improvements along the Caltrain route. It is pro- FINDINGS jected that ridership and farebox revenues will grow, however, the full potential of this growth would probably be realized outside of the 20-year time horizon of this plan. Ridership is projected to increase by over 220 percent between 2004 and 2023, which does not include potential ridership gains from transfers between HSR and Caltrain. Operating costs and member agencies contributions are expected to increase, but will depend ulti- mately on how the systems are operated and coordinated.

The capital program totals approximately $5 billion and will result in a $3 billion shortfall. The shortfall does not include the potential revenues from high-speed rail bonds or other innovative financing techniques.

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TABLE 8: BUILD-OUT SCENARIO CHARACTERISTICS SUMMARY

SERVICE 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2023 Weekday Express Trains 0 12 18 24 36 36 Weekday Limited Trains 14 37 40 40 48 51 Weekday Local 62 39 40 40 48 51 Weekday Total Trains 76 88 98 104 132 138 Saturday/Sunday Trains 0 32/30 32/32 32/32 32/32 32/32 Shuttle Buses (station access) 40 42 52 62 72 78 Average Weekday Ridership 28,000 30,900 40,900 50,700 64,100 72,100 Annual Ridership (Caltrain) 7,362,000 23,626,200

OPERATIONS (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL TOTAL Operating Costs A 425.0 458.5 567.0 643.1 2,093.6 Operating Revenue Farebox 148.7 196.5 245.8 304.8 895.9 Other 39.4 31.7 34.1 36.6 141.8 Member Contributions (all) 236.9 230.4 287.1 301.7 1,056.1 TOTAL Operating Revenue 425.0 458.5 567.0 643.1 2,093.6 Avg. Annual Member Contributions (all) 47.4 46.1 57.4 60.3 52.8

CAPITAL (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL Maintenance Facility (Committed Project) 53.0 0 0 0 53.0 Replacement & Rehabilitation 151.3 285.1 250.8 186.5 873.7 Enhancements 232.6 804.9 2,945.0 27.9 4,010.4 Support 6.5 6.0 11.5 11.0 35.0 TOTAL Capital Costs 443.3 1,096.0 3,207.3 225.4 4,972.0 Average Annual Cost 88.7 207.9 640.5 45.1 245.5 Capital Funding ----- Federal 201.3 266.2 302.0 145.3 914.7 State 18.0 6.0 76.5 11.0 111.5 Local Match (Member Agencies) 43.8 57.7 51.5 27.4 180.3 Other A 179.1 13.7 525.8 0 718.6 TOTAL Capital Revenue 442.1 343.6 959.8 183.7 1,929.1 Surplus/(Shortfall) (1.3) (752.4) (2,247.5) (41.7) (3,042.9)

Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized. A Operating costs in the first five-year period are lower because the first year includes service levels of 76 trains per day (no express service). Operating costs include electrification and extension to Downtown San Francisco starting in 2014. B “Other” Capital Funding consists of funds from remaining San Mateo Measure A minus local matching funds, San Mateo Reauthorization, and VTA 2000 Measure A funds. It also includes funds from CARB/AB434 and Salvage Value for diesel locomotives replaced with electric locomotives.

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FUTURE SCENARIOS

Evaluating the Scenarios effective in meeting the objectives of There are several ways in which the the first and third principles—to satisfy scenarios can be evaluated: by how well passengers and build ridership and pro- they promote the vision or follow the mote regional connectivity. In terms of five guiding principles, by return-on- the second principle, “invest wisely in investment or by customer satisfaction. system improvements,” the Status Quo Scenario has the lowest total operating Vision & Guiding Principles. Each and capital costs, but is the least effec- scenario is different in its effectiveness tive in attracting new riders to the sys- to meet the Vision for Caltrain to tem. This is because over the 20-year become the preferred mode of travel period and beyond, the Status Quo has . The Vision has along the Peninsula the lowest investment in system three components at the individual, improvements which build ridership. local and regional levels which are to (1) While the Build-Out Scenario does not provide passengers with a world-class appear to do as well in the arena of travel experience; (2) act as a major cost effectiveness, as presented in the catalyst for redevelopment and eco- next section, it has the greatest poten- nomic activity in communities along its tial for inducing ridership growth well route; and (3) play a key role in mobility beyond the 20-year horizon. management along the Peninsula Corridor and in the Bay Area region as The scenarios were not evaluated by a whole. the fourth and fifth guiding principle because these are principles that should The Enhanced and Build-Out Scenarios apply to the way Caltrain does business will be the most effective in promoting on a daily basis. Regardless of which the Vision because of the market- scenario or continuum of scenarios that driven investments in service and capital Caltrain pursues developing strong improvements and customer amenities, community and business relationships, in station access and joint develop- supporting environmental stewardship ment, and in support of regional con- and promoting safety along the railroad nections with other transit systems. are paramount. Likewise, Caltrain must When evaluating the potential perform- pursue a secure financial future by ance of each scenario according to the building a foundation of long-term sus- five guiding principles, the Enhanced tainability so that the Caltrain Vision and Build-Out Scenarios are the most can become a reality.

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TABLE 9: OPERATING COSTS AND MEMBER SUBSIDY BY SCENARIO

OPERATIONS (A) SERVICE LEVEL (B) ANNUAL (C) OPERATING (D) MEMBER IN 2023 RIDERSHIP COST (AVERAGE SUBSIDY (WEEKDAY, EXPRESS IN ANNUAL, (AVERAGE ANNUAL, HEADWAYS) 2023 TOTAL) TOTAL)

Status Quo 86 trains 14,369,000 $83 Million $44 Million 1 hr $1.67 Billion $873 Million Moderate Growth 100 trains 19,483,700 $90 Million $44 Million 1 hr $1.81 Billion $872 Million Enhanced 136 trains 22,749,700 $109 Million $57 Million Ω hour $2.18 Billion $1.13 Billion Build-Out 138 trains 23,626,200 $105 Million $53 Million Ω hour $2.09 Billion $1.06 Billion

Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized.

Return on Investment and Ridership. As shown in Table 10 (opposite, above), The figures in the following tables were the Status Quo Scenario is the only calculated using projected expenses alternative that does not result in a and revenue sources which are based shortfall over the 20-year period of the on ridership projections and traditional capital program. These amounts were funding formulas. These do not include calculated based on the assumption potential revenue from innovative that the local match amounts shown in financing resources. All dollar figures column (B) would be available. The local are in 2003$. match required is lowest in the Status Quo Scenario, but caps out around As shown above in Table 9, 20-year $180 million as evident in the other operating costs are lowest in the Status scenarios. Although the shortfalls are Quo Scenario. Even though the total significantly greater in the Enhanced operating costs in the Moderate Growth and Build-Out Scenarios, these figures Scenario are slightly higher, projected do not include potential revenues that ridership and thus farebox revenues might become available from innovative increase over time, offsetting a greater finance techniques or high-speed rail portion of operating costs and resulting bonds. in a similar level of member subsidies as the Status Quo Scenario. Although aver- Table 11 (opposite, below) compares the age operating costs in the Build-Out scenarios by cost per passenger trip and Scenario are lower than the Enhanced cost-per-new-passenger trip gained. Scenario, they are greater then the Column (C) presents the average annual Enhanced Scenario in the outer years. cost-per-passenger trip, based on a 20-

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TABLE 10: CAPITAL COSTS, LOCAL MATCH, AND SHORTFALL BY SCENARIO

CAPITAL (A) CAPITAL COSTS (B) LOCAL MATCH ALL (C) SURPLUS/ [AVERAGE ANNUAL, MEMBER AGENCIES (SHORTFALL) TOTAL] [AVERAGE ANNUAL, TOTAL]

Status Quo $57.6 Million $8 Million $0 Million $1.151 Billion $159 Million Moderate Growth $100 Million $8.2 Million ($217 Million) $2.000 Billion $164 Million Enhanced $127 Million $9 Million ($629 Million) $2.543 Billion $181 Million Build-Out $249 Million ($9 Million) ($3 Billion) $4.972 Billion ($180 Million)

Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized year average of operating plus capital ance measure as shown in Column (D). costs and ridership, and shows that the The ridership projections for the Build- Status Quo Scenario is most cost- Out Scenario do not include potential effective using this evaluation criterion. transfers between high-speed system However, when comparing total cost per and Caltrain, and over time, could sur- new passenger gained over the 20-year pass the Enhanced Scenario in ridership period in column (B), the Status Quo gains. In comparison with the Status Scenario is the least effective in attract- Quo, the Enhanced Scenario is 1.7 times ing new passengers to the system. The the cost, but yields almost twice as Enhanced Scenario is the most cost- many new riders over the 20-year period effective scenario using this perform- than the Status Quo.

TABLE 11: COST PER PASSENGER TRIP BY SCENARIO

(A) OPERATING (B) 20-YEAR (C) AVERAGE (D) COST + CAPITAL [RIDERSHIP ANNUAL COST-PER- PER-NEW- COST PER COSTS [AVG. AVG., NEW PASSENGER PASSENGER PASSENGER ANNUAL, TOTAL] PASSENGERS*] TRIP TRIP GAINED

Status Quo $141 Million 11,816,000 $11.94 $31.68 $2.82 Billion 89,085,000 Moderate Growth $190 Million 14,425,000 $13.19 $26.95 $3.81 Billion 141,260,000 Enhanced $236.0 Million 16,155,000 $14.60 $26.83 $4.72 Billion 175,860,000 Build-Out $353 Million 16,096,000 $21.95 $40.45 $7.1 Billion 174,670,000

Based on estimated 2003 ridership of 7,362,000 passengers per year. Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized.

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