CALTRAIN 20042023

STRATEGIC PLAN

PENINSULA CORRIDOR

JOINT POWERS BOARD

(CALTRAIN)

1250 SAN CARLOS AVE.

S AN CARLO S, CALIF. 94070

800-660-4287

WWW.CALTRAIN.COM

JULY 1, 2004

A CKNOWLEDGMENTS

Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers Board 1250 San Carlos Ave., San Carlos, California 94070

2004 BOARD OF DIRECTORS STRATEGIC PLAN John McLemore, Chair Mike Nevin, Vice Chair 2 004| 2 023 Michael Burns José Cisneros Don Gage Jim Hartnett Arthur L. Lloyd Sophie Maxwell Ken Yeager TABLE OF CONTENTS Sue Lempert, Metropolitan Transportation Commission Liason

Michael J. Scanlon, Executive Director 1 From the Executive Director George Cameron, Chief Administrative Officer and Acting Chief Financial Officer 2 Introduction Chuck Harvey, Chief Operating Officer 2 The Caltrain Strategic Plan 2004–2023 Rita Haskin, Chief Communications Officer 5 Along the Peninsula Ian McAvoy, Chief Development Officer 7 Caltrain Today

8 Vision & Guiding Principles PROJECT STAFF 8 The Caltrain Vision Larry Stueck, Manager, Planning and Research 9 Guiding Principles April Chan, Manager, Capital Programming and Grants Corinne Goodrich, Manager, Special Projects 20 From Principle to Policy Douglas Kolozsvari, Associate Planner 20 The Scenario Approach 21 Policy Questions HNTB CORPORATION 25 Snapshot of the Continuum 1330 Broadway #1630, Oakland, CA 94612 and Future Improvements Camille Tsao, Senior Transportation Planner NANCY WHELAN CONSULTING 28 The Future Scenarios 201 Mission Street #1450, San Francisco, CA 94105 28 Developing the Scenarios NELSON\NYGAARD CONSULTING ASSOCIATES 47 Evaluating the Scenarios 833 Market Street #900, San Francisco, CA 94103 50 Conclusions WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES 201 Mission Street #1450, San Francisco, CA 94105

Art direction, design and production by MIG, Inc., Berkeley, California From the Executive Director

Friends of Caltrain:

On behalf of the Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers Board, (JPB) we are pleased to present the 20-Year Strategic Plan for Caltrain service.

This document is a product of challenging economic times demanding hard choices and difficult decisions. But it also reflects an optimistic vision and a conviction that continued dramatic development and even more significant milestones lie ahead in the Caltrain corridor as we respond to relentless demand by new generations of patrons for faster travel, frequent schedules, improved facilities and more convenient access.

In 1992, the Joint Powers Board assumed stewardship of the Caltrain system, which was hard pressed at the time to operate 52 weekday trains over a worn and tired infrastructure. Throughout the industry, they called it a “fixer-upper railroad.” From any perspective, we have done some significant fixing during the last 12 years. We have completed a $300 million infra- structure upgrade including new trackage, rolling stock, signal systems, and—in conjunction with many of the cities we serve—station improvements for comfort, convenience and accessibility.

That 52-train schedule has expanded to 86, including 10 Baby Bullet trips linking San Jose Diridon and San Francisco stations in less than an hour.

Much of this upgrade effort has taken place during a chilling economic downturn that has imposed unprecedented fiscal challenges on every transportation system. Nevertheless, we have not stopped building; we have not stopped improving; and, as this document will attest, we have not stopped planning for the future.

Where do we go from here? This Strategic Plan positions us to proceed as fast, and as far, as market demand and resources will permit. It outlines three distinct growth patterns: Moderate, Enhanced, and Build-Out. The document provides for potential service extensions to the south, north and east; for system electrification; additional trains and more express schedules; and, ultimately, incorporation of High Speed Rail sometime in the next decade.

Any long-term planning document must contain the means to deal with contingencies. Caltrain has met that challenge during its developmental years, and we believe the current Strategic Plan includes adequate measures to assure continued success.

Michael J. Scanlon Executive Director

CALTRAIN STRATEGIC PLAN 2004 | 2023 1 INTRODUCTION

Introduction

The Caltrain Strategic Plan 2004–2023 The Strategic Plan is a blueprint for the future of Caltrain. It presents a vision and guiding principles that shape broad-level policy decisions as well as specific strategies for service and capital improvements. The Strategic Plan is intended to be a reference for policymakers, Caltrain staff, and members of the public that guides them toward a common vision for Caltrain. Above all, it is meant to be an agent for change.

The Caltrain Strategic Plan includes the following elements:

(1) The Vision & Guiding Principles, which present a vision for Caltrain and outline principles for guiding policy decisions; (2) A summary of the Service Plan, which details the service characteristics, Information from the Service, Capital Improvement, and Finance plans is presented policies, and budget requirements for Caltrain over the next 20 years; through four future scenarios: the Status Quo, Moderate Growth, Enhanced, and (3) A summary of the Capital Improvement Program (CIP), which identifies Build-Out Scenarios. The scenarios are described in detail in the Future Scenarios policy and prioritizes capital improvements over the next 20 years; and chapter (page 28). The service characteristics, operations and capital costs, and (4) A summary of the Finance Plan, which discusses funding strategies member agency contributions reflected in each of the scenarios are based upon for Caltrain. the Draft Short-Range Transit Plan, Capital Improvement Plan, and Finance Plan as STRATEGIC PLAN COMPONENTS of June 1, 2004. The information in the Strategic Plan provides a general under- standing of the costs and benefits of each scenario and provides a basis for com- Vision & Guiding Principles paring the scenarios. Adoption of the Strategic Plan does not commit the member agencies to the funding requirements, service levels, or capital priorities presented in this document but is an agreement on the principles and policies which will

Strategic Capital guide the development of the Short-Range Transit Plan, Service Plan, Capital Service Plan Plan Improvement Plan Improvement Plan, and Finance Plan. These plans are being finalized and will be adopted separately from the Strategic Plan in the Fall/Winter of 2004.

Any updated information related to JPB actions subsequent to the adoption of

Finance the Strategic Plan will be included as these supporting plans are finalized. Any Plan revisions to the Strategic Plan after adoption will be included in an addendum or in the next Strategic Plan update, anticipated by 2010.

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80 INTRODUCTION Petaluma Vallejo

680 101 San Rafael 4 Concord All of the scenarios are based on rea- Peninsula Corridor has been served by sonable assumptions of revenue avail- rail since 1863, and this corridor is 1 Berkeley 24 Walnut Creek ability—based on past experience and where Caltrain operates rail service 80 San Pablo estimates of future events—and opti- today, connecting cities from Gilroy Bay mize federal and state funds. Where to San Jose to San Francisco. Its Oakland estimated revenue meets or exceeds 34 stations and 77 route-miles of SAN FRANCISCO

22ND ST capital program costs, the capital pro- track served about 28,000 passengers Alameda 880 San Francisco San Leandro 580 grams are considered to be fully fund- per weekday in 2003 and over seven PAUL AVE Oakland BAYSHORE 101 Intl. Airport ed. Underlying the financial analysis is million passengers annually. The the assumption that the local funds Caltrain rail system is a vital transit link 280 580 84 Pacifica San Livermore required to match the maximum avail- for communities on the Peninsula and SOUTH SF Francisco Hayward Bay able federal revenues will be provided is a fundamental component of the San SAN BRUNO San Francisco Intl. Airport 680 MILLBRAE by Caltrain’s member agencies. These Francisco Bay Area transportation system. BROADWAY 92 BURLINGAME local matching funds are subject to SAN MATEO The Bay Area has been one of the HAYWARD PARK Fremont BAY MEADOWS annual approval by the three member HILLSDALE fastest growing regions of the country BELMONT 84 agencies. If local matching funds are SAN CARLOS Redwood in terms of jobs and population, con- REDWOOD CITY City not allocated and alternative local ATHERTON stantly challenging its transportation Half Moon Bay MENLO PARK sources are not identified, Caltrain PALO ALTO system to meet travel demands. During STANFORD would not be able to use all of the CALIFORNIA AVE 101 the tech boom, job and population SAN ANTONIO federal funds included in the financial 237 growth far exceeded previous estimates, Pacific MOUNTAIN VIEW plans and other sources will be required Ocean and the highway system proved ill Mountain SUNNYVALE View LAWRENCE San Jose to meet any shortfalls. SANTA CLARA Intl. Airport equipped to handle the dramatic 1 COLLEGE PARK increase in automobile trips. Traffic SAN JOSE DIRIDON TAMIEN Along the Peninsula congestion reached its peak, resulting 85 CAPITOL The San Francisco Peninsula, home in poor air quality, long commutes, and San Jose BLOSSOM HILL to San Francisco, San Mateo, and frustrated drivers. Many commuters Santa Clara counties, is bordered found taking transit to be a favorable

101 by the Santa Cruz Mountains to the alternative and Caltrain ridership expe- east and the San Francisco Bay to the rienced the largest annualized growth 17 west, forcing development and travel in its history. Although Bay Area transit MORGAN HILL CALTRAIN SYSTEM MAP patterns on the Peninsula to extend systems absorbed some of the increase

SAN MARTIN along a north-south corridor. The in travel demand, remaining gaps in the Caltrain stations

Caltrain stations with wheelchair lift

Airport connection GILROY 1 Limited commute service only

Santa Cruz

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regional transit network became more “Baby Bullet” service, which reduces Whether serving travel needs at a Four committees provide input to pronounced and many commuters overall travel time between San Jose local or regional level, Caltrain is an Caltrain on a regular basis: the Staff chose to drive and battle congested and San Francisco. In the initial plan- ideal transit alternative to support Coordinating Council, which includes roads and highways. It became appar- ning stages are the San Francisco the quality of life in local communities staff from the three partners; the ent that regional mobility and transit Downtown Extension, Dumbarton Rail along the Peninsula and contribute Citizens Advisory Committee, consist- connectivity in the Bay Area needed to Project, and expansion of the Diridon to the achievement of the region’s ing of three citizens from each of the be improved to provide viable trans- Station in San Jose, all of which will broader goals. three counties; the Bicycle Advisory portation alternatives and choices. greatly improve the connectivity Committee, comprised of Caltrain staff and community members with an ANNUAL RIDERSHIP FY1991 - FY2004 Caltrain Today interest in bicycle issues; and the Caltrain is owned and operated by Accessibility Advisory Committee, 11,000,000 the Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers which includes Caltrain staff, Caltrain 10,000,000 Board (JPB), which consists of three riders with disabilities, and other repre- 9,000,000 members from each of the JPB sentatives of people with disabilities. 8,000,000 partners: San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties. The San Mateo 7,000,000 County Transit District (SamTrans) is 6,000,000 the managing agency which includes FY 90–91 91–92 92–93 93–94 94–9595–96 96–97 97–98 98–99 99–00 00–01 01–02 02–03 03–04 oversight of the contract operator, engineering, finance, capital project development, project monitoring, Because the Bay Area is the foremost between Caltrain and other major tran- planning, marketing, customer service, international center for major tech- sit systems in the region. Furthermore, fare and schedule development, nological development, travel demands the prospect of HSR brings tremendous performance monitoring, personnel within, to, and from the region are opportunities for Caltrain to serve recruitment, budget and grant adminis- expected to grow dramatically in the interregional travelers and to imple- tration, and public outreach. Amtrak next 20 years and beyond. Plans for ment system-wide improvements, given was awarded the operating contract a High Speed Rail (HSR) system in that the two rail systems would share on a competitive basis and is responsi- California, and multiple Bay Area tran- the existing Caltrain corridor and key ble for providing train service, main- sit and highway projects, speak to the stations between San Jose and San taining Caltrain equipment, collecting urgency of these transportation needs. Francisco. Through these and other fares, and conducting ridership counts In 2003, the Millbrae intermodal station service and operational improvements, and passenger surveys as necessary. opened, making it possible for passen- Caltrain is positioned to assume an gers to transfer directly between ever increasing role in contributing to Caltrain and BART. In June 2004, regional mobility solutions to meet the Caltrain introduced its express or needs of Bay Area residents and visitors.

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Vision & Guiding Principles

At the regional level, Caltrain must play a key role in mobility management. It must The Caltrain Vision offer people an attractive option to automobile travel while helping to achieve con- The Caltrain Vision through 2023 is to become the preferred mode of travel along gestion relief and air quality goals. It must encourage the use of other alternative the Peninsula Corridor by: modes by facilitating seamless connections to local and regional transit systems,

• Providing passengers with a world-class travel experience providing state-of-the-art facilities for bicycles and wheelchairs, and improving pedestrian access. • Acting as a major catalyst for redevelopment and economic activity in communities along its route Guiding Principles • Playing a key role in mobility management along the Peninsula Corridor The following Guiding Principles are designed to bring policy-makers and decision- and in the Bay Area region as a whole makers one step closer to turning the Caltrain vision into reality. The Guiding Caltrain is a vital component of the Bay Area transportation system that will have Principles do not prescribe specific actions but provide a policy framework for lead- an ever increasing impact at the individual, local and regional levels. For it to be the ing the Caltrain management team in a direction that will enable it to achieve its preferred mode of travel along the Peninsula Corridor, it must succeed and excel at ultimate goals. They are:

these three levels. •1 Satisfy passengers and build ridership

At the individual level, Caltrain must provide passengers with a world-class travel •2 Invest wisely in system improvements experience. It should keep and attract passengers by offering convenient, efficient, •3 Promote regional connectivity and cooperation with other pleasant, and economical service that is safe and secure. Riding Caltrain should transportation providers allow people to enjoy a quality of life they cannot experience while driving in traffic. •4 Partner with communities and broaden communications with the public At the local level, Caltrain must act as a major catalyst for redevelopment and eco- • Develop a solid financial foundation that ensures long-term sustainability nomic activity. It must support existing communities along its route by serving the 5 people that live, work, and play there. By keeping and attracting passengers, Caltrain Each of the Guiding Principles is explained further on the following pages with asso- will bring potential customers to local businesses near its stations. Caltrain must be ciated objectives, challenges, and opportunities. a partner with the communities through which it travels to realize development opportunities and meet other common goals. Caltrain stations must be inviting and contribute to a community’s sense of place.

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CHALLENGES > A major challenge to satisfy- ing passengers and increasing GUIDING PRINCIPLE 1 To satisfy passengers and build ridership Caltrain must: ridership will be to build a solid financial foundation that 1 Satisfy Passengers and Build Ridership ensures long-term, dedicated funding for substantial system Without satisfied passengers, no part of the Caltrain vision can become a reality. To • Provide a flexible mix of local and express service that reflects the and service improvements. keep and attract riders, Caltrain must be convenient to use, pleasant to ride, and take travel needs of Caltrain passengers. Reduce overall travel time with > Another challenge will be to operational and platform improvements to facilitate faster boarding. reshape the public perception people to places they want to go. Caltrain must be a competitive alternative to travel- and brand image of Caltrain as Increase frequency of service. a viable and preferred alterna- ling by automobile by providing its passengers with a world-class travel experience. • Provide or facilitate passenger amenities on board trains and at stations, tive to the automobile. such as Internet access, banking, dry cleaning, child care, and other Paramount to customer satisfaction is the quality of Caltrain service, which must be SERVICE & “non-transit” services. OPPORTUNITIES fast, frequent, reliable, and safe. Caltrain should accommodate a variety of travel PASSENGER • Address station access needs with a balanced approach that includes > Transit-Oriented Development AMENITIES needs, whether one is traveling a short distance to a neighboring town or traveling a (TOD) presents opportunities to great distance between counties. Trains should use modern, comfortable, and clean coordinating service with connecting transit operators in San Francisco, San build potential ridership by vehicles and technology to enhance operations, to provide passengers with information Mateo, and Santa Clara counties; promoting walking, bicycling, carpooling, locating residences, businesses, and carsharing to and from stations; improving access for persons with and services near Caltrain and amenities, and to enhance the public image of Caltrain. stations. disabilities; and finding innovative and effective solutions for meeting Convenient station access and inviting station facilities are also important to the passen- parking demand. > The proposed California High STATION Speed Rail would present a ger experience. Stations play an important function, not only as the interface between number of opportunities for ACCESS & • Create inviting stations that serve as landmarks and activity centers for the rail service and the communities they serve, but as gateways to the Caltrain system. complementary capital ENVIRONMENT communities in which they are located. They should function as community meeting places and as landmarks that enhance the improvements that will make • Provide complete, reliable, real-time information that is easily obtainable at Caltrain a more attractive neighborhoods in which they are located. Caltrain stations should contribute to each transit stations, over the phone, via the Internet, or through other media. transit system by improving community’s sense of place. Station access for all passengers, including seniors and per- service, improving Caltrain’s sons with disabilities, should be addressed by balancing the need for adequate parking • Implement a fare structure that is easy to understand and a universal fare image, and increasing opportu- nities for regional connections. facilities with the need for improved access for pedestrians, transit, and bicycle. medium that is easy to collect and transfer across transit providers. > Planned capital programs • Understand current and potential markets along the Caltrain route to Information on the Caltrain route, station access, schedules, and fares should be easily and enhanced service improve- establish ridership targets, set service levels, and market Caltrain service to ments can enable Caltrain to INFORMATION obtained at stations, over the phone, via the Internet, or through other media. Real- potential riders. serve the travel demands of & FARE SYSTEM time information on arrival and departure times should be made available to passen- current and potential riders and • Regularly conduct passenger market research to evaluate service shape the public perception of gers and potential riders with the use of advanced technology. The fare payment performance, measure customer satisfaction, and improve service. Caltrain as a modern, fast, and process should be simplified, and fare media should be universal to facilitate transfers reliable transportation mode. • Continually strive to improve the passenger experience and the Caltrain between different transit operators. > Amenities for Caltrain organization as a whole. customers could be provided Passenger and public comments and suggestions are absolutely essential to improving at low cost by providing an MARKETING Caltrain in the future. Customer input should be collected on a regular basis to evalu- environment to attract private & SERVICE vendors that could provide ate service performance and measure customer satisfaction. Understanding the needs EVALUATION services. of current and potential markets along the corridor through outreach and other com- munication tools will enable Caltrain staff to identify and prioritize system improve- ments, project future ridership, and attract more passengers.

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GUIDING PRINCIPLES

CHALLENGES > Challenges to implementing system improvements will GUIDING PRINCIPLE 2 To invest wisely in system improvements Caltrain must: include acceptance by the governing boards of the 2 Invest Wisely in System Improvements JPB partners and securing adequate and long-term funding Investing wisely means that capital programs and service improvements must be • Balance service and capital improvements with market demand and to finance the improvements. Achieving consensus on balanced with market demand and financial feasibility. Capital projects must have availability of financial resources. Develop financial and capital priorities and funding. improvement plans that consider various funding scenarios and subsequent longevity, and improvements overall must benefit a majority of users and prove > Another challenge to plans of action. effective in achieving Caltrain goals. implementing system improvements will be to • Use valuable market research to inform decisions about service develop the public and private improvements that will attract more riders, such as employing “universal Implementation of system improvements must be prioritized and measured against the partnerships necessary FINANCIAL design elements” that appeal to many travelers. to implement system availability of financial resources. The development of multiple funding scenarios will FEASIBILITY improvements efficiently enable Caltrain to strategize the financing and implementation of improvements over • Develop standards and targets that are useful in monitoring the efficient and effectively. the next 20 years. and effective use of resources. • Balance system rehabilitation and modernization projects to increase OPPORTUNITIES To provide the level of service that passengers seek from a world-class rail transit reliability; deliver fast and frequent service; and provide quieter, cleaner, and > Many of the planned MARKET system, ongoing efforts to plan and implement system improvements must be AWARENESS more comfortable trains. Expand and manage system capacity effectively to improvements to the Caltrain complemented by market awareness. It is essential that regular market research maximize use of the tracks without overbuilding. system will enable Caltrain be conducted to evaluate whether Caltrain is meeting the needs of its passengers to be more efficient and to • Find balanced and cost-effective solutions for improving station access for be compatible with other and to plan for system improvements that will attract potential passengers. all passengers. Ensure that Caltrain passengers can access rail stations via systems. Electrification, for example, would be one of the The ability of Caltrain to provide enhanced service is inextricably linked to capital transit, bicycle, or walking. Facilitate transfers by coordinating schedules ways that would allow Caltrain SERVICE & improvements, therefore service and capital improvements must be carefully with other transit operators and promoting increased feeder service to to be extended into downtown San Francisco and would be CAPITAL coordinated. They must respond to market demand and be balanced with financial Caltrain stations. Encourage bicycling and walking to stations by providing required to accommodate future IMPROVEMENTS related facilities and amenities. Balance the need for adequate parking feasibility. Management of system capacity will be required in conjunction with High Speed Rail on the Caltrain capacity expansion in order to maximize use of the right-of-way and to avoid facilities at stations where it is appropriate. route. It would also improve environmental quality by costly overbuilding. • Enhance stations to create transportation facilities that are “places” and reducing noise and emissions. integral parts of the communities in which they are located. Factor in the Involvement from partnering agencies or third parties, such as local government unique characteristics of stations when planning station facilities and THIRD PARTY funding of route extensions or private investment in station improvements, allows access. INVOLVEMENT Caltrain to stretch its dollars to fund more improvements. Working with other • Capitalize on opportunities presented by partnerships and third party organizations requires more coordination to maximize the opportunities that result investments to improve the system. (These may include route extensions, from pooling resources. station enhancements, or other system improvements that are funded by other organizations.)

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CHALLENGES > The primary challenge to promoting regional GUIDING PRINCIPLE 3 To promote regional connectivity and cooperation with other connectivity is developing the interagency partnerships that 3 Promote Regional Connectivity and Cooperation transportation providers Caltrain must: are required to coordinate with Other Transportation Providers multiple transit systems so that they function seamlessly.

Promoting regional connectivity is essential to meet regional mobility needs, achieve • Understand the influence of the land use/transportation nexus so that > Another challenge to promoting regional connectivity environmental goals, and provide Bay Area residents and visitors with viable Caltrain can become an active participant in addressing regional mobility will be financing the capital and needs. transportation options. It is also a critical component of developing a more service improvements that must be made in order to sustainable future for the Bay Area through a stronger integration of land use and • Maximize connectivity between Caltrain and regional transportation facilitate seamless connections providers including ACE, Amtrak, Capitol Corridor, BART, VTA light rail, the transportation system. By cooperating with other agencies and transportation between transit systems. MUNI Metro, regional bus service, and airport connectors. Strategies include providers, Caltrain can improve the movement of people and goods throughout increasing feeder service to stations, coordinating schedules, developing OPPORTUNITIES the region. fare agreements, and integrating public information. Minimize transfer time > Expansion projects at the and total travel time of regional trips with timed transfers, an integrated fare Diridon Station in San Jose and To serve regional objectives, Caltrain must be effective in alleviating traffic congestion, system, and system improvements to facilitate quick boarding and alighting. the Transbay Terminal in San MOBILITY & Francisco would facilitate direct CONGESTION particularly along the Peninsula Corridor. As population and job growth occur over • Expand Caltrain service with network extensions to facilitate regional trips connections between multiple MANAGEMENT the next 20 years, continued low-density development patterns and the scarcity of and to better serve Caltrain passengers. (Service expansion could be transit operators (rail and bus). affordable housing in urban centers will result in more automobile travel, more traffic, achieved through partnerships with other agencies or by third party > Several of the planned and environmental degradation. The problems that stem from traffic congestion implementation.) system improvements present opportunities for serving challenge all Bay Area transportation providers to be proactive in finding a solution. • Provide transit transfer information at stations that is easy to follow and regional trips on Caltrain. understand. These include extensions to To meet regional travel demands, the regional transportation system must function downtown San Francisco, INTERAGENCY as one seamless system rather than as multiple disjointed parts. An optimal regional • Work with other transportation providers and local agencies to build across the Dumbarton Bridge COORDINATION system facilitates timed transfers, employs an integrated fare system, and delivers adequate facilities for joint use between multiple transit operators. (Factor to the East Bay, and to Salinas and Monterey. real-time information. The contribution that Caltrain makes to improve regional track capacity needs of other transit providers and freight operators that use the Caltrain right-of-way.) > By connecting with High connectivity will assist in meeting regional goals related to congestion management, Speed Rail, Caltrain will have air quality, and land use. Coordinating with other transit providers to connect service • Capture an increasing percentage of the mode split of north-south trips an opportunity to serve riders and build intermodal facilities will allow Caltrain to better serve its passengers and the made along the Peninsula corridor. that are traveling to and from the region. communities along its route.

The Caltrain right-of-way provides the only freight rail access to the Peninsula and FREIGHT San Francisco. It plays a key role in goods movement and alleviating truck traffic & GOODS congestion on local roads and highways. Understanding freight needs is essential for MOVEMENT Caltrain to continue improving regional mobility and supporting local businesses.

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CHALLENGES > A major challenge to partnering and broadening communications GUIDING PRINCIPLE 4 To partner with communities and broaden communications with with the public and other transpor- tation providers is being able to 4 Partner with Communities and Broaden the public Caltrain must: build consensus and find win-win Communications with the Public solutions for competing interests.

Caltrain's customer base includes a much larger group than the people who ride its • Strive to improve relationships with cities and external agencies. Develop OPPORTUNITIES trains each day. Forming strong partnerships with these extended customers— strong relationships with the public, policy makers, and Caltrain staff by > Caltrain can foster solid conducting frequent outreach efforts and acting upon lessons learned relationships with other agencies employers, local businesses, and communities—enables Caltrain to be more effective from outreach. Develop an effective external affairs program. and communities by collaborating in addressing system safety, improving station environments, and achieving to achieve system improvements, • Find win-win solutions for community issues, such as safety, and train and whether gathering public input or environmental quality. sharing responsibility for construction noise. implementing projects. System improvements that reduce train The healthy relationships that Caltrain fosters with passengers, communities, • Manage corridor capacity to maximize and coordinate use of the tracks by COMMUNITY noise or increase system safety in multiple transportation operators. the Caltrain right-of-way benefit RELATIONSHIPS businesses, local governments, other transit operators, policy makers, and its staff passengers and non-passengers will ultimately affect the ability of Caltrain to achieve its goals. This requires regular • Continue to improve system safety and security as necessary and work alike. communication within and outside of the organization, followed by consensus building with local jurisdictions and law enforcement to effectively implement safety measures. Support programs in emergency preparedness and crime > Engaging in joint-development and action. ventures on TOD projects is one way prevention. in which Caltrain can begin to Addressing system issues such as safety and management of track capacity benefit • Promote and create stations as public spaces. Present any station establish partnerships with public SAFETY the public and other transportation providers as well as Caltrain and its passengers. and private entities. Future TOD & SYSTEM improvements, grade separations, and other route enhancements as part of projects in the planning stage Safety issues are critical as they affect passengers, operators, and people in the IMPROVEMENTS a larger corridor plan. include: (1) the new Transbay communities along the Caltrain route. Several system improvements, such as fencing Terminal in downtown San • Maximize transit-oriented development opportunities along the Caltrain and station/platform enhancements, can address immediate safety concerns. Some Francisco, which will serve Caltrain, route. Work with member agencies in pursuing TOD in the individual AC Transit, BART, Golden Gate improvements, such as grade separations, can achieve multiple objectives in addition counties. Work with local jurisdictions to support businesses by attracting Transit, Muni’s Metro and buses, to increasing safety along the right-of-way, including reducing train noise. Programs SamTrans, and HSR. It will be people to the communities where stations are located. in emergency preparedness, crime prevention, and system safety and security play surrounded by over seven million square feet of new development important roles in making the Caltrain system safer. including 4,700 residential units; (2) the Peninsula Corridor Plan which Similarly, transit-oriented development (TOD) offers partnership opportunities, provides includes plans for creating vibrant DEVELOPMENT a mix of housing and services near the stations, and enhances the communities communities and building TOD PARTNERSHIPS around multiple San Mateo County in which they are located. Development of strong working relationships with local Caltrain stations; and (3) the government will enable Caltrain to be more effective in this arena. Partnering with Diridon/Arena Strategic local government and businesses to provide amenities and services for passengers Development Plan, which includes the expansion of the Diridon Station would be another opportunity for Caltrain to work with other organizations to provide in San Jose and intensive housing better service to its passengers. and commercial development. The expanded Diridon Station will serve By investing in system improvements that reduce noise and air pollution, promote Caltrain, ACE, Amtrak, BART, Capital Corridor, HSR, VTA light rail, and ENVIRONMENTAL transit use and walkable communities, and facilitate regional mobility, Caltrain helps STEWARDSHIP buses. improve the environmental quality of local cities and the region.

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CHALLENGES > A major challenge to developing a strong financial GUIDING PRINCIPLE 5 To develop a solid financial foundation that ensures long-term foundation will be garnering Develop a Solid Financial Foundation legislative support for dedicat- 5 sustainability Caltrain must: ed funding sources, such as a that Ensures Long-term Sustainability sales tax measure. > Another challenge will be Because financial stability is an essential ingredient to the long-term success of • Balance the implementation and timing of system improvements with to establish partnerships with public or private entities Caltrain, it is critical that Caltrain secure adequate funding for a multi-year period to committed funding. to explore more innovative deliver a program consistent with its vision. The JPB must embrace a finance plan • Develop a capital improvement program that outlines potential development financing options. scenarios based on prospective funding opportunities. that is acceptable to the three member agencies, while employing innovative OPPORTUNITIES financial management to reach new levels of investments. • Explore innovative ways to secure long-term funding to guide Caltrain into > Opportunities for solidifying the future. Programs such as high-speed rail bonds, bridge tolls, local sales long-term financial resources for Caltrain include multiple Traditional funding sources alone will be insufficient to meet the long-term needs of the tax authorizations, future federal authorizations as well as non-traditional DEDICATED programs such as tax increment financing, lease backs, public private part- innovative funding strategies future Caltrain system. Multi-year financial planning is essential to ensure that capital that have proven effective else- FUNDING nerships, and joint TOD opportunities should be pursued to ensure funding is and service visions become budgeted realities. where, including joint TOD available to meet future needs. opportunities near stations. • Support each county’s effort toward developing a dedicated source of funding. Secure local matching funds to leverage committed state and Partnering with local business, developers, cities, private interests and the utilization of INNOVATIVE federal capital grants. “cutting edge” and “yet-to-be-invented” financial techniques together with the funding APPROACHES initiatives of tomorrow, such as high-speed rail bonds, federal reauthorization, local • Develop financial plans and programs that reflect the financial capacity of sales tax reauthorization, etc., will provide the financial framework to increase the member agencies. revenues. These strategies accompanied with traditional financial programs will guide Caltrain to provide the financial means to meet the market demands of the future.

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From Principle to Policy

The Scenario Approach The Build-Out Scenario is the “ultimate” scenario that integrates Caltrain and the Following the development of the Vision & Guiding Principles, four future scenarios proposed statewide high-speed rail system. The objective of the Build-Out Scenario were developed to prepare Caltrain for different possible financial futures in light of is to capture a significant market share of trips by providing a travel experience sim- multiple unknowns, such as upcoming ballot measures and the economic climate. ilar to the Enhanced Scenario that is complemented by the additional service and These scenarios were used to answer key policy questions and will set a clear direc- amenities offered by the connection to high-speed rail. It assumes that additional tion for making detailed service, capital, and financial decisions. The four scenarios funding resources via high-speed rail bonds and other resources would be available. are: Status Quo, Moderate Growth, Enhanced, and Build-Out. An aggressive innovative financing program would be required.

The Status Quo Scenario is the most financially constrained scenario. It follows a More detailed information on each of the scenarios is presented in the chapter titled “pay-as-you-go” approach and assumes that only current (2004) levels of commit- “The Future Scenarios.” ted and programmed funds are available. It is assumed that upcoming local sales tax measures would not be reauthorized and no innovative funding sources would be Policy Questions pursued. The objective of the Status Quo Scenario is to keep the railroad operating Six policy questions were developed that address how Caltrain will make key decisions at current levels of service, optimize existing infrastructure, and limit investment in regarding future service and capital improvements and financial strategies. Many improvements other than normalized rehabilitation and replacement. decisions regarding capital improvements need to be made within the next few years so that the necessary funding can be secured and costly re-dos are avoided. The The Moderate Growth Scenario is a steady growth scenario and is financially con- findings and evaluation of the scenarios, along with input received from the member strained in the first five years. Similar to the Status Quo Scenario it follows a “pay- agencies and the general public were used to answer the following policy questions: as-you-go” approach, but requires some additional resources above current levels to fund planned improvements. It is assumed that upcoming local sales tax measures • Scenario Approach: Should one scenario be selected or should the scenar- would not be reauthorized and no innovative funding sources would be pursued. The ios be viewed as part of a continuum? In a continuum, key funding opportu- objective of the Moderate Growth Scenario is to optimize the operating and capital nities and increased demand for service can trigger a shift to another programs with limited increases in funding resources, service, and capital improve- scenario. ments. • Financial Strategy: Should Caltrain continue with annual review utilizing the “pay-as-you-go” approach or strive for long-term stability by utilizing innova- The Enhanced Scenario is the “market-driven” scenario. It is financially constrained tive finance techniques? in the first five years (same as the Moderate Growth Scenario), and assumes that • Service Levels: Should service levels be determined by projected financial additional resources become available in the outer years. The main objective of the resources or should it be market-driven? Enhanced Scenario is to capture latent market demand by providing optimal levels • System Rehabilitation: Should Caltrain follow a normalized rehabilitation of service, improving station access and regional connectivity, and incorporating uni- and replacement schedule or follow an accelerated schedule that is com- versal design elements and customer amenities that are characteristic of a “world bined with other capital improvement projects? class” railroad. Innovative financing techniques would have to be pursued.

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FROM PRINCIPLE TO POLICY FROM PRINCIPLE TO POLICY

• Electrification: Should electrifica- policy positions, while the Enhanced approach given the unpredictable foundation that ensures long-term tion be deferred until funding is and Build-Out Scenarios include nature of the economic climate and sustainability.” Securing dedicated available or should design continue? market-driven service and capital future funding sources. The strategy funding sources will enable Caltrain improvements as well as innovative for Caltrain should be to begin with to meet projected funding shortfalls, • Capacity Improvements: financing techniques. The scenario policy the Status Quo Scenario and plan future service and capital What level of capacity improve- approaches are presented below in advance to the Moderate Growth, improvements, and implement the ments should Caltrain invest in to Table 1. Enhanced, or Build-Out Scenario improvements in a timely manner. It improve headways and reliability of when critical milestones are will be critical for shifting from the service in the peak periods? The following conclusions to the six reached. Critical milestones would Status Quo or Moderate Growth to policy questions were drawn based on Each scenario has a different combina- include securing additional capital the Enhanced or Build-Out Scenario. comprehensive outreach to the public tion of assumptions regarding funding and operating funds. Because the and to the member agencies: • Service Levels: availability and finance strategies, Should service first five years of the capital pro- service levels, and capital improve- • levels be determined by financial Scenario Approach: Should one gram are financially constrained ments. These shape the general policy resources or should it be market- scenario be selected or should in all scenarios, there is some flexi- direction and objective of each driven? the scenarios be viewed as part of bility with regard to securing funds scenario. In general, the Status Quo Service levels must be tied to a continuum? to meet the projected shortfalls. and Moderate Growth scenarios take a productivity and public demand, yet It is clear that the continuum is the • Financial Strategy: more conservative approach in their Should Caltrain balanced with funding availability. most prudent and practical scenario continue with annual review by Good information on market demand utilizing the “pay-as-you-go” is necessary to determine the TABLE 1: SCENARIO POLICIES approach or strive for long-term service characteristics that are stability by utilizing innovative desired by the public and to MODERATE STATUS QUO GROWTH ENHANCED BUILD-OUT finance techniques? prioritize service improvements as Annual review, Long-term stability, Long-term stability, Given the uncertainty of the “pay- funding becomes available. Because Financial Maintain 2004 Annual review, Innovative Innovative Strategy level of Pay-as-you-go Finance Finance as-you-go” approach and the com- service improvements sometimes investment Strategies Strategies plexities it creates when planning require capital projects, the avail- Service Maintain 2004 Moderate Market-driven Market-driven and coordinating future improve- ability of capital funding can directly Levels level of service growth ments, Caltrain should strive for affect service levels. System Scheduled/ Scheduled/ Accelerated Accelerated long-term stability through dedicat- Rehabilitation Normalized Normalized • System Rehabilitation: Should ed funding sources and innovative Continue Deferred until Caltrain follow a normalized rehabili- Deferred with Design, funding Continue with techniques. This strategy is in line Electrification indefinitely must coordinate tation and replacement schedule or available Design with the fifth guiding principle, with HSR an accelerated schedule? construction which is to “develop a solid financial Only CTX North quadrant Capacity improvements (San Mateo North, Central, Entire route Improvements complete in County) and and South 2004 South (Partial)

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Capital replacement and rehabilita- be part of the design development. Snapshot of the Projections of revenue availability tion must not be deferred but should A funding plan must be created in Continuum and Future are based on past experience and be implemented in the most cost- order to implement the project and Improvements reasonable estimates of future events. effective manner. When opportuni- avoid further delays. These revenue projections assume Based on the policy approach outlined ties arise, rehabilitation should be that all of the local matching funds • Capacity Improvements: What level in the previous section, a conceptual accelerated to prevent a situation of identified in the financial plans will of capacity improvements should schedule was developed for the capital deferred maintenance, which can be approved annually by Caltrain’s Caltrain invest in to improve head- improvements that can be expected in greatly increase maintenance costs. three member agencies. ways and reliability of service in the the next 20 years. The following time- It is critical to balance rehabilitation peak periods? line provides a snapshot of what the As shown in the header row of the time- with other improvements in the lines below, Caltrain could begin with Capital improvements that expand capital program will include. The capital program. the Status Quo Scenario and shift to system capacity, such as adding projects or programs that depend on • Electrification: the Moderate Growth Scenario within Should electrifica- additional tracks, must be tied to service and financial triggers, such the first five years, once funding for tion be deferred until funding is service objectives, and must be bal- as establishing dedicated funding identified shortfalls is secured and a available or should design continue? anced with other projects in the sources, are distinguished from ongoing funding plan for electrification is devel- Design for the electrification capital program. Caltrain should programs, such as rehabilitation, which oped. By the end of the first five years, project should continue and should explore the most cost-effective are almost completely funded. be factored into all improvement means for improving service before projects along the right-of-way. investing in capacity expansion. FUTURE IMPROVEMENTS TIMELINE Phasing of implementation should

STATUS QUO TO MOD. GROWTH TO MOD. GROWTH ENH./BUILD-OUT ENHANCED/BUILD-OUT 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023

REPLACEMENT AND REHABILITATION

ENHANCEMENT PROGRAM Electrification Other Enhancements

CAPACITY EXPANSION

SUPPORT PROGRAM

EXPANSION (THIRD-PARTY PROJECTS) Downtown San Francisco Extension Dumbarton Rail Corridor Monterey/Salinas Extension

Programmed for completion within timeframe

Requires funding or other trigger for completion within timeframe (includes design/development and construction).

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it will be determined whether or not If the high-speed rail bond measure ENHANCEMENT PROGRAM SUPPORT PROGRAM high-speed rail will be constructed passes, Caltrain would be positioned • Electrification project completed • The support program consists of along the Caltrain corridor. In the to shift into the Build-Out Scenario by within the first ten years. Full project development and capital pro- second five-year period, Caltrain could the second five-year period. funding has been identified for gram development. Full funding has shift from the Moderate Growth the project in the outer years of the been identified for the next 20 years. The following describes the capital Scenario to either the Enhanced or 20-year time period. A funding plan program according to the scenario Build-Out Scenario, depending on the to bring all dedicated funds forward REGIONAL EXTENSIONS approach outlined above: status of the high-speed rail project. must be developed in order to • Regional extensions include the Downtown extension to a rebuilt This scenario shift from the Moderate REPLACEMENT AND implement the project within the Growth Scenario would require Caltrain REHABILITATION ten-year time frame. Transbay Terminal in San Francisco, to secure operating and capital funds the Dumbarton Rail Corridor, and • Ongoing throughout 20-year period • Other enhancements, such as for the Enhancement and Capacity the extension to Monterey and independent of scenario. May be improved station access and Expansion programs. By the second Salinas. These are considered third- accelerated in the Enhanced and customer amenities, will require half of the 20-year period, Caltrain party projects whose capital costs Build-Out Scenarios. Full funding has additional funding. would be in the Enhanced or been identified for the Replacement are not included in the Capital Plan. While they are all currently partially Build-Out Scenario. and Rehabilitation program in the CAPACITY EXPANSION funded and not included in the Existing sales tax measures (Measure Status Quo and Moderate Growth • Funding has been identified in Status Quo or Moderate Growth A) in San Mateo and (Measure A) Santa Scenarios. Over ninety-five percent the first five years for capacity Scenarios, it is assumed that plan- Clara counties and a new sales tax of Replacement and Rehabilitation expansion projects, which include ning and design will continue and measure (Proposition K) in San funding sources have been identified grade separations, track and signal that they will be implemented within Francisco County provide funds for for the Enhanced and Build-Out construction, and station improve- the next 10 years. Caltrain capital projects. Two upcoming Scenarios. ments. Additional capacity expansion ballot measures that would provide • Major programs include replacement may be necessary to substantially funding for enhancements and capacity and overhaul of rolling stock and improve service levels and will expansion are the reauthorization of rehabilitation of track, bridges, depend on demand for service the San Mateo County sales tax tunnels, signals and grade crossings. and the availability of funds. (November 2004) and the high-speed Replacement of rolling stock must rail bond measure (November 2006 or be coordinated with the timing of 2008). Revenue from the San Mateo the electrification project which will County sales tax would help to meet require the purchase of new electric most of the $220 million capital short- locomotives. Platform improvements fall in the Moderate Growth Scenario. at key stations to remove the hold- Any additional funding sources could be out rule are included. used toward achieving improvements included in the Enhanced Scenario.

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The Future Scenarios

scheduling of Caltrain service, the nature and timing of capital improvements that Developing the Scenarios support service and operations, and the overall passenger experience on Caltrain. Once the policy approach for each scenario was defined, the financial, service, and Meeting market demand requires: capital assumptions were developed further and are detailed in three supporting plans: the Finance, Service, and Capital Plans. The three plans are currently being • Creating a flexible mix of service—local, limited, express finalized and will be presented to the Joint Powers Board for adoption in Fall/Winter • Optimizing service levels and reducing overall trip times of 2004. The following are descriptions and objectives of each supporting plan. • Improving connections between Caltrain and other systems • Providing better access to stations (pedestrian, ADA, transit, bicycle FINANCE PLAN OBJECTIVES and vehicular access) The Finance Plan details the funding assumptions and funding strategies for each • Providing amenities to enhance the passenger experience scenario. Specifically, the Finance Plan objectives are to: Universal Design Elements. Market research in the Caltrain service area reveals • Identify available funding over the next 20 years that many service improvements to transit will have broad appeal to existing and • Maximize the availability of federal and state revenues in cooperation potential riders and will substantially increase ridership. These universal design ele- with the member agencies ments address key traveler attitudes and desires, forming the core of the Caltrain • Identify discretionary sources that are not being utilized brand identity: • Develop an inventory of potential innovative finance programs • Privacy and Comfort is important to all of the service population in varying • Match available funding with eligible capital and service programs degrees. Travelers desire comfortable, stress-free travel and privacy from • Project funding shortfalls and develop strategies to deliver future programs other travelers. Lower cost strategies include training and enforcement policies to control noisy or unruly passengers. Higher cost efforts include SERVICE PLAN OBJECTIVES providing spacious seating on all trains and interiors with some separation The Service Plan outlines the service goals for each of the scenarios as well as a from other travelers. 20–year plan to deliver them. Its main objectives are to: • Personal Safety is perceived as very important to the vast majority of our • Determine future level of service (Trains per day/per hour) service population while accessing or riding the system. Strategies to address • Design a flexible mix of service (Express/Limited/Local) the need for personal safety include zero tolerance policies for aggressive • Identify the triggers (productivity or other performance measures) behavior and well-lighted, graffiti-free shelters with 911 emergency phones. for changes in service • Addressing Flexibility, or the need to travel to many locations at times that • Identify the efforts needed to increase market share vary from day to day, is a challenge for transit. Successful strategies include

As stated in the Guiding Principles, understanding market demand is the key to mid-day shuttle services at major business parks, station cars and other retaining existing riders and attracting new riders. It will influence the mix and personal transport rentals, and improved land use to increase access to retail and commercial services.

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THE FUTURE SCENARIOS THE FUTURE SCENARIOS

• Reliability of service is a key goals of each scenario. The main objec- TABLE 2: CAPITAL IMPROVEMENT PLAN PROJECTS attribute that addresses passengers’ tives of the Capital Plan are to: desire to minimize unexpected delay. REPLACEMENT AND REHABILITATION • Identify the magnitude of system ADA Station & Rolling Stock Upgrades Parking Rehabilitation Improving stations to eliminate rehabilitation and replacement Bridge Rehabilitation Rolling Stock Overhaul & Replacement “hold-out” delays, providing for Capitalized Maintenance Seismic Retrofit Evaluation • Identify the improvements required faster boarding of passengers Communication Equipment Station Improvements (Access) to realize the service goals needing assistance, and increasing Fare Equipment Replacement Station Improvements (Hold-out rule) Caltrain track capacity will all • Develop conceptual cost estimates Fencing Replacement Track Rehabilitation* contribute to increased service reli- of proposed capital programs Grade Crossing Rehabilitation Tunnel Rehabilitation Operational Facilities & Equipment ability. Also important are reliable • Develop techniques for implementing connections to other rail services, ENHANCEMENT PROGRAM cost-effective capital improvement buses, and shuttles. Automatic Train Control Integrated Messaging programs Bicycle Facilities Intelligent Transportation Systems • Increasing the Ease of Transit Use Replacement and Rehabilitation projects Bridge Construction Parking Expansion is possible through service improve- include improvements needed to bring Construction/Maintenance/Equipment Right-of-Way Access Control ments such as universal fare media Contractor Operator Support Security the railroad into a good state of repair or including transfer costs in a sin- Electrification Signal Construction* and to continue scheduled replacement gle fare, providing easy access to Fare Equipment Station Improvements of infrastructure and rolling stock. Fencing Track Construction* transit information, and implement- The major projects in this category Fiber Optic Communications Transit-0riented/Joint Development ing real-time information. In addition are bridge rehabilitation, rolling stock Grade Separations* Tunnel Construction to making transit more user-friendly, overhaul and replacement, and track the increasing hassle and cost of SUPPORT PROGRAM rehabilitation, which comprise two-thirds auto use—external factors often Capital Program Support, Development Project Development of the approximate $900 million associated with parking and traffic Replacement and Rehabilitation pro- REGIONAL EXTENSIONS (THIRD PARTY PROJECTS) congestion—make transit a more gram (in 2003 dollars). Also included is Downtown San Francisco Extension Monterey/Salinas Extension attractive option for travelers. the reconstruction of stations to elimi- Dumbarton Rail Corridor nate the hold-out rule at most stations. CAPITAL PLAN OBJECTIVES * Indicates improvements typically included in capacity expansion projects. The replacement and rehabilitation The Capital Improvement Plan consists needs are generally consistent between of a wide array of improvements, scenarios. Any variations are due to categorized by Replacement and reconstruction projects that occur in this category include electrification and are necessary to increase express Rehabilitation, Enhancement, and under the enhancement program and and improvements related to capacity service in the peak periods. The capacity Support programs. Regional extensions defer the need for replacement. expansion, such as grade separations expansion projects are typically pack- are categorized as third-party projects. and track construction. Capacity aged together because it is more The Capital Plan supports the Service Enhancement projects include expansion projects can include track cost-effective to implement them Plan by including improvements that upgrades to the system, new construc- rehabilitation as well as new construction simultaneously. are necessary to implement the service tion, and amenities. The major projects

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THE FUTURE SCENARIOS THE FUTURE SCENARIOS

The cost of the Enhancement program projects, and their capital costs are not TABLE 3: SCENARIO CHARACTERISTICS SUMMARY— varies widely between the scenarios included in the Caltrain Capital STATUS QUO AND MODERATE GROWTH

and depends primarily on the inclusion Improvement Plan. Additional operating FINANCE (IN 2003 $) STATUS QUO MODERATE GROWTH of electrification and the extent of costs associated with the extension to Operations capacity expansion along the corridor. Downtown San Francisco have been Farebox Revenue Historical Some Growth Member Contributions Stabilized* Stabilized* or Decrease Due to inflation, the timing of projects included in the Enhanced Scenario Capital will also affect costs; however, only beginning in 2010 and Build-Out Federal/State/Local Historical Historical constant dollars (2003) are shown in Scenario beginning in 2014. Operating San Francisco Sales Tax Through 2034 Through 2034 the Strategic Plan. In the case of elec- costs that would be incurred by the San Mateo Sales Tax Through 2008 Through 2008 trification, the timing and coordination Joint Powers Board for the Dumbarton Santa Clara Sales Tax Through 2036 Through 2036 High-Speed Rail Bonds None None with other improvements is also criti- and Monterey/Salinas projects have not Innovative Techniques None None cal. Estimates show that electrifying been determined. the railroad prior to the construction of SERVICE BY 2023 STATUS QUO MODERATE GROWTH The financial, service, and capital Express Service Goal 10 trains/weekday 20 trains/weekday a grade separation can increase capital characteristics of the scenarios are one-hour headways one-hour headways costs (of electrification and the grade summarized in Tables 3 and 4 (pages Weekday Total Trains 86 100 separation) in the vicinity of the grade Saturday/Sunday Trains 32/30 32/30 33 and 34) and are described further separation project by 65 percent. Shuttle Buses (station access) 45 59 on the following pages, followed by a Customer Amenities Low Low The Support program includes capital comparison and evaluation of all three Average Weekday Ridership 43,700 59,600 program development and project scenarios. All costs and revenues are Annual Ridership 14,369,000 19,484,000 development. shown in 2003 dollars and shortfalls do Annual Operating Cost Avg./Total $83M / $1.67B $90M / $1.81B not include potential revenue from Annual Member Contrb. Avg./Total $44M / $873M $44M / $872M Regional Extensions include the exten- innovative funding sources. CAPITAL (IN 2003 $) STATUS QUO MODERATE GROWTH sion to Downtown San Francisco to a Replacement & Rehabilitation Same Rehabilitation needs in all scenarios rebuilt Transbay Terminal, the Capacity Expansion North quadrant North and (partial) Dumbarton Rail Corridor, and the exten- (SM County grade South quadrants sion to Monterey/Salinas. These exten- separations) by 2011 sions are considered to be third-party Electrification (Revenue Service) None 2018 Regional Extensions (Third-Party Projects) Downtown San Francisco No No Dumbarton No No Salinas/Monterey No No Calif. High-Speed Rail No No Total Capital Program Cost $1.151 Billion $2.000 Billion (Shortfall) without innovative sources $0M Assumes ($217M) Assumes and HSR bonds $159M local match $164M local match

Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized. *Member contributions that are stabilized are constant year-to-year with the exception of increases due to inflation.

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TABLE 4: SCENARIO CHARACTERISTICS SUMMARY— TABLE 5: STATUS QUO SCENARIO CHARACTERISTICS ENHANCED AND BUILD-OUT

FINANCE (IN 2003 $) ENHANCED BUILD-OUT SERVICE 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2023 Operations Weekday Express Trains 0 10 10 10 36 10 Farebox Revenue Growth Growth Weekday Limited Trains 14 37 37 37 37 37 Member Contributions Growth Growth Weekday Local 62 39 39 39 39 39 Capital Weekday Total Trains 76 86 86 86 86 86 Federal/State/Local Additional Additional Plus Saturday/Sunday Trains 0 32/30 32/30 32/30 32/30 32/30 San Francisco Sales Tax Through 2034 Through 2034 Shuttle Buses (station access) 40 41 45 45 45 45 San Mateo Sales Tax Through 2029 Through 2029 Average Weekday Ridership 28,000 29,300 33,100 37,300 41,200 43,700 Santa Clara Sales Tax Through 2036 Through 2036 Annual Ridership (Caltrain) 7,362,000 14,369,000 High-Speed Rail Bonds None Passes in 2006 or 2008 Innovative Techniques Yes Yes OPERATIONS (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL TOTAL Operating Costs A 407.7 421.0 421.0 421.0 1,670.5 SERVICE BY 2023 ENHANCED BUILD-OUT Operating Revenue Express Service Goal 36 trains/weekday 36 trains/weekday Farebox 136.8 159.3 178.0 196.1 670.2 half-hour headways half-hour headways Other 38.9 29.4 29.4 29.4 127.1 Weekday Total Trains 136 138 Member Contributions (all) 232.0 232.2 213.6 195.5 873.3 Saturday/Sunday Trains 32/32 32/32 TOTAL Operating Revenue 407.7 421.0 421.0 421.0 1,670.5 Shuttle Buses (station access) 7878 Avg. Annual Member Contributions (all) 46.4 46.4 42.7 39.1 43.7 Customer Amenities Medium-High High

Average Weekday Ridership 69,400 72,100 CAPITAL (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL Annual Ridership 22,750,000 23,626,000 Maintenance Facility (Committed Project) 53.0 0 0 0 53.0 Annual Operating Cost Avg./Total $109M / $ 2.18B $105M / $2.09B Replacement & Rehabilitation 150.0 279.0 224.2 177.6 830.7 Annual Member Contrb. Avg./Total $57M / $1.13B $53M / $1.06B Enhancements 232.6 0 0 0 232.6 Support 6.5 6.0 11.5 11.0 35.0 CAPITAL (IN 2003 $) ENHANCED BUILD-OUT TOTAL Capital Costs 442.0 285.0 235.7 188.6 1,151.3 Replacement & Rehabilitation Same Rehabilitation needs in all scenarios Average Annual Cost 88.4 57.0 47.1 37.7 57.6 Capacity Expansion North, Central, and South Entire route four-tracked Capital Funding quadrants by 2013 and grade separated by 2016 Federal 201.1 230.3 186.3 149.2 767.0 Electrification (Revenue Service) 2008 2014 or earlier State 18.0 6.0 11.5 11.0 46.5 Regional Extensions (Third-Party Projects) Local Match (Member Agencies) 43.8 48.7 37.9 28.4 158.7 Downtown San Francisco 2010 By 2014 Other B 179.10 0 0179.1 Dumbarton Yes Yes TOTAL Capital Revenue 442.0 285.0 235.7 188.6 1,151.3 Salinas/Monterey Yes Yes Surplus/(Shortfall) 00000 Calif. High-Speed Rail No By 2016 Total Capital Program Cost $2.490 Billion $4.972 Billion Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized. A (Shortfall) without innovative ($629M) Assumes ($3B) Assumes approx. Operating costs in the first five-year period are lower because the first year includes service levels of 76 trains per day (no express sources and HSR bonds $181M local match $180M local match service). Operating costs include electrification and extension to Downtown San Francisco starting in 2014. B Other Capitol Funding consists of San Mateo Measure A funds remaining minus San Mateo local matching funds. Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized.

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FUTURE SCENARIOS FUTURE SCENARIOS

FUTURE SCENARIO A A The Status Quo Scenario

Keep the railroad operating at current levels of service and limit investment in OBJECTIVE improvements other than normalized rehabilitation and replacement. The capital program in the Status Quo Scenario assumes only current levels of FINANCIAL funding would be available through the 20-year period. Federal, State, and local RESOURCES match funds for capital improvements are assumed to remain at historic levels. The Status Quo Scenario is the most fiscally conservative of the four scenarios. It Remaining funds from existing San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara GENERAL assumes that current levels of funding will support 86-train weekday service county sales tax measures would remain through 2008 and 2036, respectively. CHARACTERISTICS planned for 2004, normalized infrastructure rehabilitation and replacement, and Funds from the reauthorization of the sales tax measure in San Mateo County some capacity expansion in San Mateo County. It does not include the extension to are not included in the Status Quo assumptions. downtown San Francisco, extensions across the Dumbarton Bridge or to Salinas/ Operating funds consist primarily of contributions from the member agencies Monterey, or High-Speed Rail in California. Details of the Staus Quo Scenario charac- and farebox revenues. In the Status Quo Scenario, projected ridership and teristics in five-year increments are shown in Table 5 (page 35). farebox revenues would experience some growth, primarily as a result of popu- lation and job growth in the area, since the level-of-service on Caltrain would not change. Member agency contributions would remain constant or decrease The primary service goal is to maintain existing (2004) levels of service1, including SERVICE initial Caltrain Express or “Baby Bullet” service, through the 20-year period. The Status as ridership and farebox revenues increase. IMPROVEMENTS Quo level-of-service on a typical weekday is capped at 86 trains per day, which includes 10 express trains. A flexible mix of local, limited, and express trains would have to be Caltrain Express, included in all scenarios, will improve travel times for passen- PASSENGER scheduled to optimize service with existing infrastructure. Weekend and Gilroy service gers using this service. Passengers using the local service will experience no EXPERIENCE would not change. Up to 45 shuttle bus routes would provide station access services. service increases over time. In the Status Quo Scenario, most of the capital program would consist of rehabilitation and replacement, which would not

The capital improvements in the Status Quo Scenario consist primarily of scheduled make a noticeable difference to the passenger experience. CAPITAL replacement and rehabilitation projects, some station and platform improvements to IMPROVEMENTS remove the hold-out rule2, programmed capacity expansion projects (grade separa- The Status Quo Scenario will result in an increase in annual ridership and rev- tions in San Mateo County), and construction of the Caltrain Maintenance Facility. KEY enues. Ridership is projected to increase by approximately 100 percent over FINDINGS These are projects with committed or programmed funds. There would be no High- the 20-year period and operating costs will stabilize. Member subsidies will sta- Speed Rail system along the Caltrain corridor in the Status Quo Scenario. In this sce- bilize or gradually decrease in the future if farebox revenues increase. Most of nario, Capacity Expansion projects including track rehabilitation, grade separations, the $1 billion capital program would support rehabilitation and replacement to signal construction, and track construction, comprise approximately $259 million (in keep the railroad in a good state of repair and avoid a system of deferred 2003 dollars) of the total expenditures. These improvements, with the exception of maintenance. track rehabilitation, are funded by existing San Mateo County Measure A sales tax Suggested triggers for switching from the Status Quo to the Moderate Growth revenue. Scenario would include the availability of additional funding resources, increased demand as measured by productivity criteria (load factors), or demand for improved service that require additional capacity expansion. The 1 Caltrain Express or “Baby Bullet” is a limited stop service which serves key stations along the Caltrain route. Express service offers travel times of less than one hour between San Jose and San Francisco, compared to the one-and-a-half hour travel time member agencies would have to agree on the level of service and associated on local trains. operating costs and capital investment required to provide this service. 2 The hold-out rule is a safety measure that prevents a train from entering a station while another train is at the station boarding or unloading passengers. The hold-out rule is enforced at stations where passengers must cross active tracks to access a train, and can result in delays. Improvements associated with the Caltrain Express project will remove the hold-out rule at four stations leaving a total of 12 hold-out stations by June 2004.

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FUTURE SCENARIO B B The Moderate Growth Scenario

Optimize the operating and capital programs with limited increases to funding OBJECTIVE resources, service, and capital improvements. The capital program in the Moderate Growth Scenario assumes a “pay-as-you- FINANCIAL go” approach. Federal, State, and local match funds for capital improvements RESOURCES The Moderate Growth Scenario is a steady growth scenario. It assumes that commit- are assumed to remain at historic levels for the 20-year period. Remaining GENERAL funds from existing San Mateo and Santa Clara county sales tax measures are CHARACTERISTICS ted and programmed funding will allow for normalized infrastructure rehabilitation, some capacity expansion projects to improve the reliability of Caltrain Express, a assumed to remain, as well as the new sales tax measure in San Francisco. nominal increase in service, and electrification of the Caltrain line.3 It does not However, the reauthorization of the sales tax measure in San Mateo County is include the extensions to downtown San Francisco, across the Dumbarton Bridge or not included in the Moderate Growth assumptions. The electrification project is to Salinas/Monterey; or High-Speed Rail in California. A summary of the Moderate included in Track 1 of MTC’s Regional Transportation Plan and has a funding Growth Scenario characteristics are shown in Table 6 (page 40). plan under MTC’s Regional Transit Expansion Policy, Resolution 3434. The timing of the availability of electrification funds varies among the member agencies, therefore, in this scenario it is assumed that funding for the project from MTC The primary service goal is to deliver reliable express service at one-hour headways, SERVICE and the member agencies will not be available until 2014. IMPROVEMENTS primarily in the peak periods. The Moderate Growth level-of-service by 2023 on a typical weekday is capped at 100 trains per day, which includes 20 express trains. Caltrain Express, included in all scenarios, will improve travel times for passen- A flexible mix of local, limited, and express trains would have to be scheduled to PASSENGER optimize service with existing and planned capacity expansion. Gilroy service will EXPERIENCE gers using this service. Passengers using the local service will experience nomi- increase gradually over time, with trains added to the peak-direction, to the reverse- nal service increases over time. Programmed capital improvements are direction, and possibly one train in the mid-day, for a total of ten trains in each designed to reduce delays and improve travel time for all passengers. These direction by 2023. Up to 59 shuttle bus routes would provide station access services. projects will require up to ten years to complete, therefore, time-savings relat- ed to these improvements will be realized gradually. Passengers could benefit from a combination of local, limited, and express service once these improve- The capital improvements in the Moderate Growth Scenario include critical replace- CAPITAL ments are in place. IMPROVEMENTS ment and rehabilitation projects, station and platform improvements to remove the hold-out rule, and capacity expansion projects to meet the one-hour headway and In the Moderate Growth Scenario, ridership is projected to increase by nearly service reliability goals. Also included in the capital program are enhancements, KEY such as construction of grade separations in key locations to improve safety, accom- FINDINGS 165 percent between 2004 and 2023. The additional increase over the Status modate Caltrain Express, and accomodate increases in Gilroy service; electrification Quo ridership is primarily due to the increase in peak period express service, in of the line and replacement of rolling stock; ADA compliance through station improve- addition to more Gilroy service and better station access via shuttle buses. While ments; replacement and installation of fencing in select locations along the rail corri- operating costs will increase over time, it is estimated that average annual dor; and moderate improvements to communications and station access for all operating subsidies will eventually decrease due to growth in farebox revenues. modes. It is anticipated that electrification would come on line later in the Moderate The $2 billion capital program will result in an estimated $217 million shortfall. Growth Scenario than in other scenarios due to the time required to accumulate ade- The potential triggers for shifting from the Moderate Growth to the Enhanced quate funding. Parking expansion would be limited, and it is anticipated that an Scenario include availability of additional funding sources, increased demand aggressive parking management plan would be necessary to address the high as measured by productivity criteria (load factors), or demand for improved demand for parking at specific stations. In this scenario, Capacity Expansion projects service that requires additional capacity expansion and customer amenities. including track rehabilitation, grade separations, signal construction, and track construc- tion, comprise approximately $298 million (in 2003 dollars) of the total expenditures.

3 The electrification project would convert Caltrain from a diesel 38 CALTRAIN STRATEGIC PLAN 2004 | 2023 engine-powered rail system to an electrified system. CALTRAIN STRATEGIC PLAN 2004 | 2023 39 FUTURE SCENARIOS FUTURE SCENARIOS

TABLE 6: MODERATE GROWTH SCENARIO CHARACTERISTICS TABLE 7: ENHANCED SCENARIO CHARACTERISTICS SUMMARY SUMMARY

SERVICE 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2023 SERVICE 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2023 Weekday Express Trains 0 10 14 16 18 20 Weekday Express Trains 0 12 20 28 36 36 Weekday Limited Trains 14 37 38 40 40 40 Weekday Limited Trains 14 37 42 45 48 50 Weekday Local 62 39 40 40 40 40 Weekday Local 62 39 42 45 48 50 Weekday Total Trains 76 86 92 96 98 100 Weekday Total Trains 76 88 104 118 132 136 Saturday/Sunday Trains 0 32/30 32/30 32/30 32/30 32/30 Saturday/Sunday Trains 0 32/30 32/32 32/32 32/32 32/32 Shuttle Buses (station access) 40 41 46 51 56 59 Shuttle Buses (station access) 40 42 52 62 72 78 Average Weekday Ridership 28,000 30,600 38,300 46,600 54,500 59,600 Average Weekday Ridership 28,000 30,900 41,300 52,700 63,500 69,400 Annual Ridership 7,362,000 19,483,700 Annual Ridership 7,362,000 22,749,700

OPERATIONS (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL OPERATIONS (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL A TOTAL Operating Costs 416.0 450.5 456.3 484.4 1,807.2 TOTAL Operating CostsA 425.6 521.2 591.6 636.7 2,175.1 Operating Revenue Operating Revenue Farebox 143.8 182.8 220.2 256.0 802.9 Farebox 148.7 200.3 251.1 299.0 899.2 Other 38.9 29.9 31.1 32.3 132.2 Other 39.3 31.7 34.1 36.6 141.7 Member Contributions (all) 233.4 237.7 205.0 196.0 872.1 Member Contributions (all) 237.6 289.2 306.4 301.2 1,134.2 TOTAL Operating Revenue 416.0 450.5 456.3 484.4 1,807.2 TOTAL Operating Revenue 425.6 521.2 591.6 636.7 2,175.1 Avg Annual Member Contributions (all) 46.7 47.5 41.0 39.2 43.6 Avg Annual Member Contributions (all) 47.5 57.8 61.3 60.2 56.7

CAPITAL (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL CAPITAL (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL Maintenance Facility (Committed Project) 53.0 0 0 0 53.0 Maintenance Facility (Committed Project) 53.0 0 0 0 53.0 Replacement & Rehabilitation 150.0 301.7 252.6 189.0 893.1 Rehabilitation & Replacement 150.0 289.1 241.3 186.5 866.9 Enhancements 232.6 89.0 648.7 48.2 1,018.5 Enhancements 841.1 505.6 163.6 77.9 1,588.2 Support 6.5 6.0 11.5 11.0 35.0 Support 6.5 6.0 11.5 11.0 35.0 TOTAL Capital Costs 442.0 396.7 912.7 248.2 1,999.5 TOTAL Capital Costs 1,050.5 800.7 416.4 275.4 2,543.0 Average Annual Cost 88.4 79.3 182.5 49.6 100.0 Average Annual Cost 212.0 160.1 69.0 55.1 124.1 Capital Funding Capital Funding Federal 201.2 245.6 314.6 149.9 911.3 Federal 201.3 266.2 302.0 148.4 917.8 State 18.0 6.0 76.5 11.0 111.5 State 18.0 6.0 76.5 11.0 111.5 Local Match (Member Agencies) 43.8 52.4 39.2 28.5 163.9 Local Match (Member Agencies) 43.8 57.7 51.5 28.1 181.0 B Other 179.1 0 417.0 0 596.0 Other B 179.1 107.5 417.0 0 703.5 TOTAL Capital Revenue 442.0 304.1 847.3 189.4 1,782.7 TOTAL Capital Revenue 442.1 437.3 847.0 187.5 1,913.8 Surplus/(Shortfall) 0 (92.6) (65.4) (58.8) (216.8) Surplus/(Shortfall) (608.4) (363.4) 430.6 (87.9) (629.2)

Notes: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized. Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized. A Operating costs in the first five-year period are lower because the first year includes service levels of 76 trains per day (no express A Operating costs in the first five-year period are lower because the first year includes service levels of 76 trains per day (no express service). Operating costs include electrification starting in 2018. service). Operating costs include electrification starting in 2008 and extension to Downtown San Francisco in 2010. B “Other” Capital Funding consists of funds from and remaining San Mateo Measure A minus local matching funds and VTA 2000 Measure B “Other” Capital Funding consists of funds from remaining San Mateo Measure A minus local matching funds, San Mateo Reauthorization, A funds. It also includes funds from CARB/AB434 and Salvage Value for diesel locomotives replaced with electric locomotives. and VTA 2000 Measure A funds. It also includes funds from CARB/AB434 and Salvage Value for diesel locomotives replaced with electric locomotives.

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FUTURE SCENARIO C C The Enhanced Scenario The Enhanced Scenario assumes there will be enhanced levels of funding from FINANCIAL Federal, State, and local sources, as well as innovative financing techniques, to fund RESOURCES and implement capital improvements. San Mateo County will introduce a measure Capture latent market demand by providing optimal levels of service, improve OBJECTIVE to add to/reauthorize the half-cent countywide sales tax on its 2004 ballots. In the station access and regional connectivity, and invest in key system improve- Enhanced Scenario, it is assumed that this ballot measure will pass4. The sales tax ments and amenities that will attract passengers and build ridership. expenditure plans for the measures will specify the amounts available for Caltrain improvements. All three route extensions would be funded by third parties. The Enhanced Scenario embodies the vision of Caltrain by encompassing most GENERAL Additional funding advocacy would be required to pursue accelerated implementa- CHARACTERISTICS of the improvements and passenger amenities that would begin to transform tion of all the capital projects in the Enhanced Scenario. The feasibility of various Caltrain into a “world-class” railroad. It includes major improvement projects that state and federal innovative financing techniques will require further investigation. will improve service and the passenger experience. It assumes that route exten- Revenues from potential innovative sources are not included in the estimates of cap- sions to downtown San Francisco, across the Dumbarton Bridge to the East Bay, ital shortfalls. and to Salinas/Monterey will be constructed. Table 7 (page 41) details the charac- teristics of the Enhanced Scenario. PASSENGER Once the “Enhanced Caltrain” is operational, there will be frequent express service EXPERIENCE every half-hour in the peak periods as well as some service in the off-peak. The service goal in the Enhanced Scenario is to improve express train service SERVICE Passengers will be riding sleek, modern trains that are more comfortable, quieter, IMPROVEMENTS by providing half-hour headways (from one-hour headways in the Status Quo and faster, and reliable. Many of the stations would be rehabilitated or reconstructed to Moderate Growth Scenarios) primarily in the peak periods and part of the off-peak facilitate rapid boarding, include passenger amenities, improve station access, and periods. The Enhanced Scenario would also include improvements in connectivity expand parking at selected locations. and passenger amenities that will build ridership. A flexible combination of local, Passengers will be able to travel further on Caltrain with route extensions to limited, and express service will be provided to meet a variety of travel needs. downtown San Francisco, the East Bay via the Dumbarton corridor, and Salinas/ Target increases in service will include an average of two additional weekday trains Monterey. Important connections with other transit operators will be available at each year, with a goal of 136 weekday trains by 2023, and additional Gilroy service. a new northern terminus at the Transbay Terminal in downtown San Francisco Up to 78 shuttle bus routes would provide station access services. (AC Transit, BART, Muni, Golden Gate, and intercity bus), at the Dumbarton Terminus in Union City (ACE, AC Transit, BART, Capitol Corridor), at the Santa Clara station The Enhanced Scenario includes all of the capital improvements in the Moderate (BART), and Diridon Stations (ACE, Amtrak, BART, Capitol Corridor, VTA). CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS Growth Scenario, as well as access improvements, enhanced passenger amenities, and route extensions. In conjunction with the electrification project, both the pas- KEY Ridership is projected to increase by about 200 percent over the 20-year period. senger cars and diesel locomotives would be replaced, giving Caltrain an entirely FINDINGS Operating costs will increase over time as well as member subsidies. different look and feel, as well as a new image. Route extensions to downtown San Francisco, across the Dumbarton Bridge to the East Bay, and to Salinas/Monterey In the Enhanced Scenario, the electrification project has a completion date would improve regional connectivity. This scenario assumes there would be no of 2008. Due to an inconsistency in programming of electrification funds by high-speed rail in California in the 20-year timeframe. In this scenario, Capacity the member agencies, funding for the electrification project will not be available Expansion projects comprise approximately $610 million (in 2003 dollars) of the until 2014. A plan to fund electrification in the near-term will need to be devised. total expenditures. The total capital program cost is nearly $2.5 billion with an estimated shortfall of approximately $629 million. This does not include potential resources from innovative financing techniques. These innovative sources will take time to establish.

The potential trigger to shift from the Enhanced to the Build-out Scenario is the passage of the statewide high-speed rail bond measure in November 2006.

4 The San Francisco Measure passed in November 2003.

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FUTURE SCENARIO D D The Build-out Scenario

The Build-Out Scenario includes the enhanced levels of funding in the FINANCIAL Enhanced Scenario plus new sources of funding, primarily from the Capture a significant market share of trips by providing enhanced “world RESOURCES OBJECTIVE class” service, complemented by the intra-state connectivity and amenities proposed high-speed rail bond measure scheduled for voter consideration in offered by the connection to High-Speed Rail. November 2006. While the high-speed rail bonds would not supplant other innovative financing techniques, they would guarantee a significant portion of funds for major Caltrain improvements. Revenues from high-speed rail bonds or The Build-Out Scenario is the “ultimate” future scenario for Caltrain and assumes GENERAL potential innovative sources are not included in the estimates of capital short- CHARACTERISTICS that High-Speed Rail (HSR) would operate on the Caltrain right-of-way. It includes falls. all the characteristics and amenities of the Enhanced Scenario and rail connectivity with all the major metropolitan areas in California via HSR. The Build-Out Scenario includes improvements that will allow HSR to operate on the Caltrain right-of-way The total number of system improvements included in the Build-Out Scenario PASSENGER would be greater than in the other scenarios. In addition to the passenger and assumes major funding resources for these improvements would be made EXPERIENCE available through high-speed rail bonds and other innovative financing techniques. experience benefits of electrification and service extensions, the Build-Out The characteristics of the Build-Out Scenario are summarized in Table 8 (page 46). includes extensive grade separations, track capacity improvements, and station reconstruction that will dramatically affect the passenger experience. A grade-separated route will increase service reliability, reduce delays, improve safe- SERVICE The Build-Out Scenario is very similar to the Enhanced Scenario in many ways in ty, improve local pedestrian and traffic circulation, and reduce noise. IMPROVEMENTS terms of Caltrain service. One of the added service benefits would be that the HSR Additional track capacity provided by four-tracking will allow the flexibility system would be accessible through two or more Caltrain stations, making required for high levels of express service. With statewide High-Speed Rail statewide intercity rail travel available to Caltrain passengers as early as 2016. service available in 2016, it is anticipated that regional and intrastate Caltrain would function as a feeder system for HSR passengers as well, with trans- connectivity will be greatly improved. fers taking place between HSR and Caltrain. Additional work must be performed to optimize the integration of HSR and Caltrain. Up to 78 shuttle bus routes would provide station access services. In the absence of constructability issues, funding for High-Speed Rail could KEY accelerate the timing of many improvements along the Caltrain route. It is pro- FINDINGS jected that ridership and farebox revenues will grow, however, the full potential The Build-Out Scenario includes several major infrastructure modifications that CAPITAL of this growth would probably be realized outside of the 20-year time horizon IMPROVEMENTS would allow HSR and Caltrain to operate on the same line. The Build-Out Scenario of this plan. Ridership is projected to increase by over 220 includes a fully grade-separated alignment and widening of the entire route to percent between 2004 and 2023, which does not include potential ridership accommodate four tracks. Some stations would have to be relocated or recon- gains from transfers between HSR and Caltrain. Operating costs and structed. Platform configurations would have to be optimized to accommodate member agencies contributions are expected to increase, but will depend ulti- HSR and Caltrain. A new signal and communications systems would also be mately on how the systems are operated and coordinated. required. The electrification project and extension to Downtown San Francisco The capital program totals approximately $5 billion and will result in a begin operation by 2014 at the latest but could be accelerated depending on the $3 billion shortfall. The shortfall does not include the potential revenues from coordination with other projects such as grade separations and track capacity high-speed rail bonds or other innovative financing techniques. improvements related to HSR. In this scenario, capacity expansion projects includ- ing track rehabilitation, bridge construction, grade separations, signal construc- tion, station improvements, track construction and tunnel construction comprise approximately $3 billion (in 2003 dollars) of the total expenditures.

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FUTURE SCENARIOS FUTURE SCENARIOS

TABLE 8: BUILD-OUT SCENARIO CHARACTERISTICS SUMMARY Evaluating the Scenarios effective in meeting the objectives of There are several ways in which the the first and third principles—to satisfy SERVICE 2003 2005 2010 2015 2020 2023 passengers and build ridership and pro- Weekday Express Trains 0 12 18 24 36 36 scenarios can be evaluated: by how well mote regional connectivity. In terms of Weekday Limited Trains 14 37 40 40 48 51 they promote the vision or follow the Weekday Local 62 39 40 40 48 51 five guiding principles, by return-on- the second principle, “invest wisely in Weekday Total Trains 76 88 98 104 132 138 investment or by customer satisfaction. system improvements,” the Status Quo Saturday/Sunday Trains 0 32/30 32/32 32/32 32/32 32/32 Scenario has the lowest total operating Vision & Guiding Principles. Each Shuttle Buses (station access) 40 42 52 62 72 78 and capital costs, but is the least effec- Average Weekday Ridership 28,000 30,900 40,900 50,700 64,100 72,100 scenario is different in its effectiveness tive in attracting new riders to the sys- Annual Ridership (Caltrain) 7,362,000 23,626,200 to meet the Vision for Caltrain to tem. This is because over the 20-year become the preferred mode of travel OPERATIONS (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL period and beyond, the Status Quo has along the Peninsula. The Vision has TOTAL Operating Costs A 425.0 458.5 567.0 643.1 2,093.6 the lowest investment in system three components at the individual, Operating Revenue improvements which build ridership. local and regional levels which are to (1) Farebox 148.7 196.5 245.8 304.8 895.9 While the Build-Out Scenario does not provide passengers with a world-class Other 39.4 31.7 34.1 36.6 141.8 appear to do as well in the arena of Member Contributions (all) 236.9 230.4 287.1 301.7 1,056.1 travel experience; (2) act as a major cost effectiveness, as presented in the TOTAL Operating Revenue 425.0 458.5 567.0 643.1 2,093.6 catalyst for redevelopment and eco- next section, it has the greatest poten- Avg. Annual Member Contributions (all) 47.4 46.1 57.4 60.3 52.8 nomic activity in communities along its tial for inducing ridership growth well route; and (3) play a key role in mobility CAPITAL (MILLION 2003 $) 2004-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018 2019-2023 TOTAL beyond the 20-year horizon. Maintenance Facility (Committed Project) 53.0 0 0 0 53.0 management along the Peninsula The scenarios were not evaluated by Replacement & Rehabilitation 151.3 285.1 250.8 186.5 873.7 Corridor and in the Bay Area region as Enhancements 232.6 804.9 2,945.0 27.9 4,010.4 a whole. the fourth and fifth guiding principle Support 6.5 6.0 11.5 11.0 35.0 because these are principles that should The Enhanced and Build-Out Scenarios TOTAL Capital Costs 443.3 1,096.0 3,207.3 225.4 4,972.0 apply to the way Caltrain does business will be the most effective in promoting Average Annual Cost 88.7 207.9 640.5 45.1 245.5 on a daily basis. Regardless of which Capital Funding ----- the Vision because of the market- scenario or continuum of scenarios that Federal 201.3 266.2 302.0 145.3 914.7 driven investments in service and capital Caltrain pursues developing strong State 18.0 6.0 76.5 11.0 111.5 improvements and customer amenities, Local Match (Member Agencies) 43.8 57.7 51.5 27.4 180.3 community and business relationships, in station access and joint develop- Other A 179.1 13.7 525.8 0 718.6 supporting environmental stewardship ment, and in support of regional con- TOTAL Capital Revenue 442.1 343.6 959.8 183.7 1,929.1 and promoting safety along the railroad nections with other transit systems. Surplus/(Shortfall) (1.3) (752.4) (2,247.5) (41.7) (3,042.9) are paramount. Likewise, Caltrain must Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized. When evaluating the potential perform- pursue a secure financial future by A Operating costs in the first five-year period are lower because the first year includes service levels of 76 trains per day (no express service). Operating costs include electrification and extension to Downtown San Francisco starting in 2014. ance of each scenario according to the building a foundation of long-term sus- B “Other” Capital Funding consists of funds from remaining San Mateo Measure A minus local matching funds, San Mateo Reauthorization, and VTA 2000 Measure A funds. It also includes funds from CARB/AB434 and Salvage Value for diesel locomotives five guiding principles, the Enhanced tainability so that the Caltrain Vision replaced with electric locomotives. and Build-Out Scenarios are the most can become a reality.

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FUTURE SCENARIOS FUTURE SCENARIOS

TABLE 9: OPERATING COSTS AND MEMBER SUBSIDY BY SCENARIO TABLE 10: CAPITAL COSTS, LOCAL MATCH, AND SHORTFALL BY SCENARIO OPERATIONS (A) SERVICE LEVEL (B) ANNUAL (C) OPERATING (D) MEMBER IN 2023 RIDERSHIP COST (AVERAGE SUBSIDY CAPITAL (A) CAPITAL COSTS (B) LOCAL MATCH ALL (C) SURPLUS/ (WEEKDAY, EXPRESS IN ANNUAL, (AVERAGE ANNUAL, [AVERAGE ANNUAL, MEMBER AGENCIES (SHORTFALL) HEADWAYS) 2023 TOTAL) TOTAL) TOTAL] [AVERAGE ANNUAL, TOTAL]

Status Quo 86 trains 14,369,000 $83 Million $44 Million Status Quo $57.6 Million $8 Million $0 Million 1 hr $1.67 Billion $873 Million $1.151 Billion $159 Million Moderate Growth 100 trains 19,483,700 $90 Million $44 Million Moderate Growth $100 Million $8.2 Million ($217 Million) 1 hr $1.81 Billion $872 Million $2.000 Billion $164 Million Enhanced 136 trains 22,749,700 $109 Million $57 Million Enhanced $127 Million $9 Million ($629 Million) Ω hour $2.18 Billion $1.13 Billion $2.543 Billion $181 Million Build-Out 138 trains 23,626,200 $105 Million $53 Million Build-Out $249 Million ($9 Million) ($3 Billion) Ω hour $2.09 Billion $1.06 Billion $4.972 Billion ($180 Million)

Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized. Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized

Return on Investment and Ridership. As shown in Table 10 (opposite, above), year average of operating plus capital ance measure as shown in Column (D). The figures in the following tables were the Status Quo Scenario is the only costs and ridership, and shows that the The ridership projections for the Build- calculated using projected expenses alternative that does not result in a Status Quo Scenario is most cost- Out Scenario do not include potential and revenue sources which are based shortfall over the 20-year period of the effective using this evaluation criterion. transfers between high-speed system on ridership projections and traditional capital program. These amounts were However, when comparing total cost per and Caltrain, and over time, could sur- funding formulas. These do not include calculated based on the assumption new passenger gained over the 20-year pass the Enhanced Scenario in ridership potential revenue from innovative that the local match amounts shown in period in column (B), the Status Quo gains. In comparison with the Status financing resources. All dollar figures column (B) would be available. The local Scenario is the least effective in attract- Quo, the Enhanced Scenario is 1.7 times are in 2003$. match required is lowest in the Status ing new passengers to the system. The the cost, but yields almost twice as Quo Scenario, but caps out around Enhanced Scenario is the most cost- many new riders over the 20-year period As shown above in Table 9, 20-year $180 million as evident in the other effective scenario using this perform- than the Status Quo. operating costs are lowest in the Status scenarios. Although the shortfalls are Quo Scenario. Even though the total significantly greater in the Enhanced TABLE 11: COST PER PASSENGER TRIP BY SCENARIO operating costs in the Moderate Growth and Build-Out Scenarios, these figures (A) OPERATING (B) 20-YEAR (C) AVERAGE (D) COST Scenario are slightly higher, projected + CAPITAL [RIDERSHIP ANNUAL COST-PER- PER-NEW- do not include potential revenues that COST PER COSTS [AVG. AVG., NEW PASSENGER PASSENGER ridership and thus farebox revenues PASSENGER ANNUAL, TOTAL] PASSENGERS*] TRIP TRIP GAINED might become available from innovative increase over time, offsetting a greater finance techniques or high-speed rail Status Quo $141 Million 11,816,000 $11.94 $31.68 portion of operating costs and resulting $2.82 Billion 89,085,000 bonds. in a similar level of member subsidies as Moderate Growth $190 Million 14,425,000 $13.19 $26.95 $3.81 Billion 141,260,000 the Status Quo Scenario. Although aver- Table 11 (opposite, below) compares the Enhanced $236.0 Million 16,155,000 $14.60 $26.83 age operating costs in the Build-Out scenarios by cost per passenger trip and $4.72 Billion 175,860,000 Scenario are lower than the Enhanced cost-per-new-passenger trip gained. Build-Out $353 Million 16,096,000 $21.95 $40.45 $7.1 Billion 174,670,000 Scenario, they are greater then the Column (C) presents the average annual Based on estimated 2003 ridership of 7,362,000 passengers per year. Enhanced Scenario in the outer years. cost-per-passenger trip, based on a 20- Note: Some figures may be revised once the Service and Capital Plans are finalized.

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Conclusions

The multiple scenarios present alternative futures for Caltrain, from the Status Quo, a financially-constrained alternative, to the Build-Out, the “ultimate world-class” future for Caltrain. These scenarios provide insight into the level of investment that

will be necessary to realize the Caltrain vision of becoming the preferred mode of CALTRAIN BOARD travel along the Peninsula. The Caltrain vision is achievable, if desired, but not with- OF DIRECTORS out careful action planning for implementation and significant policy commitment from the Joint Powers Board and the member agencies. With the adoption of this Representing City and County of San Francisco Plan, Caltrain will proceed with the proposed continuum approach, beginning with the five-year financially-constrained service and capital plan, while supporting the Sophie Maxwell Appointed by San Francisco County Board of Supervisors guiding principles, preparation for long-term financial sustainability, and pursuit of José Cisneros the Caltrain Vision. The Strategic Plan, along with the service, capital, and financial Appointed by the Mayor of San Francisco plans, are essential tools for preparing for the future of Caltrain. Michael T. Burns Appointed by S.F. Public Transportation Commission

Representing San Mateo County Transit District

Michael D. Nevin Appointed by San Mateo County Board of Supervisors Jim Hartnett Appointed by City Selection Committee Arthur L. Lloyd Appointed by San Mateo County Transit District

Representing Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority

John L. McLemore (Chair) Appointed by Santa Clara Cities Association (Metropolitan Transportation Commission Representative) Ken Yeager Appointed by Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority Don Gage Appointed by Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority

Sue Lempert Metropolitan Transportation Commission Liason

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