Friday, January 19, 2018
Security Strategy Security Challenges Security Briefs
Big League Big Alliance Big money Without Europe, all Without Europe, all Without Europe, all is for nought, writes is for nought, writes is for nought, writes Wolfgang Ischinger. Wolfgang Ischinger. Wolfgang Ischinger. The renewed focus The renewed focus The renewed focus
54th Munich Security Conference February 16th to 18th on Twitter
United we stand, divided we fall By Theo Sommer
Relations between Europe and the United States have never been just a pleasant walk in the park. The transatlantic partners have had many passionate agreements; intermittent laments about an increasingly broad “rift,” “chasm,” “gulf” are nothing new. But never before has the danger of actual divorce been more real than after the inaugurationof Donald Trump.
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United we stand, divided we fall
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Certainties in an Relations between Europe and the United States ADVERTISING PARTNER uncertain world have never been just a pleasant walk in the park. The Lufthansa By Sigmar Gabriel transatlantic partners have had many passionate ag- www.lufthansa.de February 2017 reements; intermittent laments about an increasingly broad “rift,” “chasm,” “gulf” are nothing new. But ne- download PDF ver before has the danger of actual divorce been more
real than after the inaugurationof Donald Trump. SPECIAL EDITION OF THE ATLANTIC TIMES FOR THE 53RD MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE February 2017 Munich, Germany
In this issue BOOM ! Big League 3 Without Europe, all is for 40 pages on the nought, writes Wolfgang Ischinger. The renewed focus new world “order” on the nation state cannot forge a path to peace and prosperity. Only if Europeans work together can they advance Europe’s global influence. Over the past seven decades the allies quarreled Big Alliance 4 Not long ago, people asked: Why do we need NATO? Bygone times. The Alliance is confronting the return of the nuclear threat. Michael Rühle and François Heisbourg write about the comeback of the bomb and how to counter it.
Big money 5-7 about Mannesmann pipes to Russia and about Donald Trump has brought back the concept of burden sharing in NATO, albeit with a different spin: Who actually pays the bill and for what? Adam Thomson, Harald Kujat, Lucie Béraud-Sudreau Certainties in an and Nick Childs debate. IMAGO/IKON IMAGES Bench player 10 Germany’s policy of détente. They wrangled over in- The EU’s role in security and defense matters can be summed up as “too little, United we stand, Certainties in an too late,” although the EU possesses the financial power and technological know-how to be a global player. Alexander divided we fall uncertain world Graf Lambsdorff outlines how uncertain world EU members could establish a European defense union. Is Donald Trump Europe’s last chance We can – and must – build on the unity of the flation rates and nuclear strategy, about bananas, chi- to get its act together? | By Theo Sommer transatlantic alliance | By Sigmar Gabriel Détente 12-13 The ceasefire between Russia and the US may not last forever, elations between Europe and the today, Tusk listed first “the new geopolitical he paradigm of a world in crisis set out clear parameters and a unified but Trump and Putin will be United States have never been situation in the world and around Europe is dominating the international position ahead of the upcoming negotia- able to make deals, predicts just a pleasant walk in the park. – an increasingly assertive China, espe- debate. “Post-truth?”, “Post- tions. Moreover, when confronted with Dmitri Trenin. And this has The transatlantic partners have cially on the seas; Russia’s aggressive policy West?”, “Post-order?” are ques- an array of challenges striking the wider some people worried: Rosen Rhad many passionate agreements; intermit- towards Ukraine and its neighbors; war and Ttions certain to be raised at the Munich continent, including the rise of populism Plevneliev from the Bulgarian tent laments about an increasingly broad terror in the Middle East and in Africa, with Security Conference. In the echo chambers and nationalism, European leaders have angle and Timo Soini from a “rift,” “chasm,” “gulf” are nothing new. radical Islam playing a major role.” He then of the “every nation for itself” ideolo- rolled up their sleeves. In Bratislava we more northern vantage point. By Sigmar Gabriel ckens and beef, Iraq and Guantanamo. And they had But never before has the danger of actual referred unabashedly to “worrying declara- gists, it sounds as if we are already on identified key areas in which action is divorce been more real than after the inau- tions by the new American administration.” the slippery slope towards a Hobbesian necessary in the short term: migration and Goodbye, hello! 16 guration of Donald Trump. All of these developments make Europe’s system in which the European Union, external borders, internal and external Frank-Walter Steinmeier has Over the past seven decades the allies future highly unpredictable, he argued: NATO, the merits of rules-based order security, as well as economic and social left his post as foreign minister quarreled about Mannesmann pipes to “Particularly the change in Washington puts and even long-standing friendships and development, especially for young people. to become the next German Russia and about Germany’s policy of the European Union in a difficult situation; partnerships seem suddenly in danger When European heads of state and heads president. In the past four years détente. They wrangled over inflation rates with the new administration seeming to put of becoming insignificant. The reality, of government meet in March for the 60th the world has become even and nuclear strategy, about bananas, chick- into question the last 70 years of American however, is different. What is needed is a anniversary of the Treaties of Rome, they more adversarial. Steinmeier’s ens and beef, Iraq and Guantanamo. And foreign policy.” sober look at the facts while steering clear will set the agenda for the next decade. far-sighted foreign policy has they had acrimonious disputes over dis- Donald Tusk’s central message was that of the “post-ism” trap. We know that rallying around declara- been essential in containing the armament and climate change. Yet they in a world full of tension and confrontation, Not unlike most generations, our age tions does not guarantee cohesion among acrimonious disputes over disarmament and climate threats. Theo Sommer looks never parted ways. Their feuds were family what is needed is courage, determination faces a host of challenges. A quick glance the EU27. We must enable the EU to back at his remarkable run. spats: angry outbursts quickly ending with and the political solidarity of Europeans: at the Munich Security Conference agenda take on the tasks we want it to fulfill, no hard feelings. Realizing that Americans “Let us show our European pride… Today provides a brief summary. However, we particularly in those areas where the Asian theater 25-32 and Europeans have more in common with we must stand up for our dignity, the dignity are fortunate to be much better equipped European people have high expectations February 2017 each other than with anyone else in the of a united Europe – regardless whether we than our predecessors to do what is nec- of Brussels delivering concrete results. Examining the changing world, they learned to live with are talking to Russia, China, essary to preserve and stabi- France, Germany and other landscape: Charles Thayer on their differences. Their histori- the US or Turkey.” Europe lize the international order. European partners agreed the standoff in the South China cal, cultural and philosophical should not abandon its role as Unlike previous generations, that the Common Security Sea, Kishore Mahbubani on similarities and affinities con- a trade superpower; it should we have rules, norms and and Defense Policy (CSDP) the future of ASEAN, Kevin stituted a powerful link. Even also firmly defend the interna- multilateral institutions to is an important field in which Rudd on US-China relations, where their interests occasion- tional order based on the rule build on. Yet rules are not the EU should advance with Shashi Tharoor on India’s policy change. Yet they never parted ways. ally diverged, their community of law; and it should not sur- always and not everywhere urgency and with substance. towards Pakistan. of values remained a firm basis render to those who want to observed. Even Europe has The EU is already active of European-American togeth- weaken or invalidate the trans- recently witnessed the viola- in 16 civilian and military ARCHIVE IMAGO/METODI POPOW 1789 -1917 - 2017 34 erness. Theo Sommer is the atlantic bond. His trenchant tion of basic Helsinki prin- Sigmar Gabriel was operations on three conti- Islamic terror is a kind of Now Trump seems to be executive editor of final point reads: “We should ciples like sovereign equal- minister of economic nents, including police and revolution. IS is destroying turning his back on the funda- The Security Times and remind our American friends ity, abstention from the use affairs from 2013 to 2017. judicial missions. The EU is mentals of American democ- The Atlantic Times and of their own motto: United we of force and the integrity In February he became the only international player the old, unjust world to make former editor of the the successor to room for a new, just one. racy: rule of law, separation of German weekly Die Zeit. stand, divided we fall.” of borders. Nevertheless, Frank-Walter Steinmeier with such a well-organized Elmar Thevessen explains how powers, freedom of opinion. In Other European actors the answer must not be to as foreign minister. toolbox. the West should react. the process he is abandoning have been less constrained in abandon the rules, but to But we can still do better. the basic principle of US foreign policy, their remarks. They are shocked by the strengthen them by under- Especially with regard to taken as a given since the end of World War world President Trump seemingly wants lining the long-term benefits of trust and irregular migration, hybrid threats, ter- 35 Win-win II: the firm belief that America’s alliances to build: a world in which it is eternally cooperation – as Germany did throughout rorism and organized crime, our mecha- Africa’s progress is a global immensely increase America’s security. He High Noon; where “deals” are recklessly its OSCE chairmanship in 2016. nisms for crisis management should work common good. Investing in does not see a connection between alliances pushed through; where multilateralism is For Germany, the European Union has more quickly and more proactively. And Africa is an investment in the and security. Europe, in his view, is expend- heedlessly thrown out of the window in by no means lost its significance. The EU is whenever necessary, civilian and military future of us all, writes former able. He considers Brexit a “great thing,” favor of bilateralism; and where allies and the living, breathing reality of the “work- crisis management must go hand in hand, German President Horst Köhler. and he thinks – and favors – that others will alliances are treated with contempt. They ing peace system” envisaged as early as coordinated, planned and executed in a leave the EU, pointedly adding: “I don’t care are upset by Trump as he defends torture, 1943 by David Mitrany, the Romanian- comprehensive way. whether it’s separate or together, to me it attacks the press, denigrates the judiciary, born political scientist. Starting with an Despite its ambition in the field of does not matter.” detests “this extremely expansive climate integration process that resulted in a military crisis management, the EU is Small wonder that Europeans are aghast bullshit” (Trump’s words) and despises common market and common policies not an alliance for collective defense. But Their feuds were family spats: angry outbursts – with the exception, of course, of illib- the international institutions the US created for 28 nations, the founding members together with NATO, the EU relies on Publisher: Detlef W. Prinz Executive Editor: Theo Sommer eral democrats such as Hungary’s Viktor after World War II as the scaffolding of a achieved and preserved peace for the lon- a modern and strong pool of European Editors: Peter H. Koepf, Lutz Lichtenberger, Orbán, Poland’s Jarosław Kaczyński and peaceful and prospering international order. gest period in their history. At the same forces that not only underpins our capac- Jonathan Lutes anti-EU right-wingers like Marine Le Pen, “America’s allies are worried – rightly time, they created an area of prosperity, ity to act, but also provides for a fair Senior Art Director: Paul M. Kern Layout: Manuel Schwartz, Mike Zastrow Geert Wilders and Frauke Petry. Europe’s so,” writes The Economist. They are wor- stability and civil liberties that attracted European share of NATO’s role in trans- Times Media GmbH Donald – Donald Tusk, the Polish president ried, indeed, by the blatant lies (“alterna- ever more countries to join the EU – until atlantic security and collective defense. Tempelhofer Ufer 23-24 10963 Berlin, Germany of the European Council – gave vent to the tive facts”) spread by the president and now. Germany has already started filling gaps www.times-media.de feeling of the vast majority of his fellow- his entourage, by his habitual belittling of The outcome of the British referendum in European capability, together with our [email protected] Phone +49 30-2150-5400 continentals, politicians and pundits alike in critics and intimidation of partners, by his sent a shockwave through the EU. But partners in the Framework Nations Con- Fax +49 30-2150-5447 a remarkably straightforward letter to the naïve assumption that he can govern via even on the brink of Brexit we are send- cept. After all, spending more on defense ISSN 2191-6462 EU heads of state or government. ing a strong message: The EU27 has not quickly ending with no hard feelings. Realizing that Press deadline: February 10, 2017 Dealing with the threats facing Europe continued on page 2 fallen into paralysis. Indeed, we have continued on page 11 Americans and Europeans have more in common with each other than with anyone else in the world, 2 February 2017
continued from page 1 United we The Security Times • Strategy finding similar solutions, such as Australia and Spain. stand, divided This is about properly secur- No “Sleeping Beauty” ing the EU’s external borders and we fall stopping illegal migration, about they learned to live with their differences. Their his- helping people who need pros- ceaseless Twitter barrage and The OSCE is the foundation for a pan-European security infrastructure pects in their own countries, and by executive orders imposed about implementing resettlement Certainties in an out of the blue – circumvent- By Sebastian Kurz programs to specifically bring the ing the government apparatus weakest of the weak – in numbers and even his cabinet ministers. we can cope with – to Europe from And they are worried, last but their countries of origin. In doing not least, by indications that he so, we must heed our societies’ might precipitate currency wars capabilities to absorb newcomers. and trade wars, and even go to The goal is not to seal ourselves torical, cultural and philosophical similarities and real war, inadvertently or with off, but to regain control, so that full intent, against Iran, North we, and not criminal human-traf- Korea or even China. ficking organizations, can decide uncertain world Asked by The Times and who can come to Europe. Bild, in reference to his German Another factor that is increas- grandfather, whether there was ingly undermining both our anything typically German objective internal security as well about him, Trump answered: as people’s subjective feeling of “I like order. I like things to be safety is the threat of terrorism. done in an orderly manner.” For too long we believed that ter- The mayhem he created with rorism mainly occurred far from, affinities constituted a powerful link. his Muslim ban belies this self- apart from or perhaps only at the description; insouciance coupled edge of OSCE territory. Now we with incompetence produced a know otherwise: religious fanati- chaotic mess. cism, radicalization and a pro- In Germany, only the right- pensity to commit acts of extreme By Sigmar Gabriel wing AfD (Alternative for Ger- violence are not phenomena that many) had any kind words to originate with individuals. say about President Trump. Around 10,000 people from Volker Perthes, the director of countries that are part of the the German Institute of Inter- OSCE have joined the Islamic national Affairs (SWP), said State in recent years, and gone that Trump’s victory represents on to rape, murder or attempt a hard knock for the West’s to annihilate religious minorities normative hard rock of liberal- in Syria, Iraq and Libya. These ism. Sigmar Gabriel, the former people represent a massive security SPD chairman and Berlin’s new threat to our populations when
foreign minister, was far more PICTURE ALLIANCE/ZUMA PRESS they return to our countries. Our blunt: “Trump is the trailblazer Operative responses to security challenges: An OSCE inspection patrol in eastern Ukraine in December 2016 response to this must and can only of a new authoritarian and chau- be tripartite: first, more and more February 2017 vinist international movement.” herever we look, It is clear to me that Austria, a mutual trust and combating radi- persecution and the quest for a targeted prevention throughout Martin Schulz, his successor as we see wars and reliable partner in the international calization and violent extremism. better life is becoming increas- our society; second, police and Even where their interests occasionally diverged, chairman of the Social Demo- armed conflicts: community of nations, will con- I am under no illusions. There ingly blurred. military measures where necessary Syria, Yemen, tribute strongly to shouldering this are no patent remedies for these In the past year we have suc- and the imposition of penalties, Libya,W Iraq, Afghanistan, Eastern political responsibility. For this situations; an ideal solution is still cessfully worked to progressively while maintaining human rights Ukraine. We have witnessed vio- reason we have wholeheartedly a long way off. But nor am I disil- counteract this overload. The and fundamental freedoms; and lations of international law, bur- embraced the opportunity to chair lusioned. We can, step by step, closing of the West Balkan route third, a willingness to reintegrate geoning isolationism and looming the Organization for Security and work on pragmatic and concrete together with countries along the those who have renounced terror. trade wars. We are confronted Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) measures that provide us with route has helped to greatly reduce The OSCE has been impressive with flows of migrants that are in 2017. progress in securing the broader the flow of illegal migrants across in proving its worth as a plat- increasingly difficult to control. The era in which the OSCE was common good. To achieve this, we the Aegean, through Greece and form for dialogue and confidence Radicalization, fanaticism and regarded as a “Sleeping Beauty” must use every channel of commu- on to central Europe. However, it building, as well as in operative their community of values remained a firm basis of violent terrorist acts have struck is over. Given the herculean tasks nication available to us – parlia- would be wrong to think that the responses to current security at the heart of our society. facing us all, it offers an ideal mentarians, civil society, scientists, pressure on Europe from flows of challenges. I am reminded of the On the one hand, hacker attacks, forum for (re-)creating a peaceful those in business and industry, and migrants will decrease. The flow more than 1,000 members of the shitstorms, hate speech and social order based on shared values and our young people as much as our across the perilous Special Monitoring brutality are increasingly becom- commitments. It offers a platform government representatives. central Mediterra- Mission in Ukraine, ing part of our everyday lives, for an honest dialogue between We all have to take responsibility nean route has again whose efforts can ease in the analog and digital worlds. East and West, North and South. and live up to it. That will be key massively increased, the population’s suf- On the other hand, fear, mistrust, In doing so it must not give the in rebuilding security and making with around 181,000 fering on the ground crats and now the candidate demoralization, loss of control and impression that it is papering over our European way of life fit for the arrivals last year in and make an impor- for the chancellorship, put it no the credibility problems of leaders different perspectives, points of 21st century. Italy. According to tant contribution to less explicitly: “If Trump keeps are all growing. view and narratives. Many people in our countries prognoses, Africa’s de-escalation, as I was European-American togetherness. Now Trump seems running with the wrecking ball This instability will not fail to We support this OSCE “renais- are worried, which is also greatly population will able to personally wit- through our value system, then take its toll on the Euro-Atlantic sance” in the strongest possible influencing political discourse on double to 2.4 billion OSCE MICKYKROELL ness at the beginning we have to say clearly: That is and Eurasian realm – from Van- terms and in close cooperation the ongoing burdens and threats by 2050, and reach 4 Sebastian Kurz is Austria’s of our chairmanship. not our policy.” couver to Munich, Vienna and with our German and Italian to internal security from external billion by the end of federal minister for Europe, The OSCE offers all integration and foreign Chancellor Angela Merkel Vladivostok. The saber rattling, friends with whom we share the factors. the century. affairs. the instruments nec- phrased the same idea a bit more threats, menaces and conflicts that current leadership troika. Anchor- Without a doubt, the refugee Thus, the policy of essary for military discreetly but, in its subtlety, my generation has only known ing a strengthened OSCE as the and migration crisis is one such just waving people on inspections, election just as unmistakably. Congratu- from history books are emerging foundation for a pan-European factor. It is a challenge for the to central Europe must end. We monitoring, domestic reforms and lating Trump on his election again. security architecture will provide social and integration systems, must find sustainable solutions for regional cooperation, to name just victory, she set out the values Putative perceptions, subjective long-term benefit to Europe and the labor market as well as the Europe. It should no longer be left a few examples. to be turning his back on the fundamentals of Ame- Germany and America share: truths, feverish speculation and beyond. security and judicial authorities to human traffickers to decide who I am convinced that the OSCE “democracy, freedom, respect “fake news” – these phenomena Austria is a neutral state held in in many countries. Citizens, not makes it to Europe. At the same can make valuable contributions to for the rule of law and the dig- only add fuel to the fire. If we high regard for its bridge-building without reason, have the impres- time, we must finally put an end the knowledge exchange concern- nity of each and every person, are to resolutely counteract these foreign policy. This year we have sion that their governments have to the deaths in the Mediterranean. ing our wide range of experiences, irrespective of their origin, skin developments, we must return to set ourselves the goal of focusing lost some control over people We need effective solutions we can expertise and approaches to solu- color, religious creed, gender, trust and responsibility. This is as our OSCE chairmanship on defus- entering their territories. The implement with our own means. tions in these areas – and all in the sexual orientation or political true of more minor challenges as ing armed conflicts in the OSCE dividing line between the legiti- In this regard we can learn from best interests of our countries, our views.” On the basis of those it is of those at the global level. realm, sustainably rebuilding mate search for protection from countries that have succeeded in citizens and our security. n values – and only on the basis of those values – she offered him close future relations. It was as rican democracy: rule of law, separation of powers, much a warning as a welcome. The shock waves of regime urope is witnessing the security concerns, such as mili- change in Washington are shak- worst security crisis tary doctrines, military-to-mili- ing the world. The Europeans since the end of World Relaunch tary contacts or missile defense hope very much that the trans- War II. The conflict in systems. atlantic relationship will sur- easternE Ukraine and the illegal The German OSCE chairman- vive the present tremors. But annexation of Crimea demon- The crisis of the conventional arms control regime ship was successful in balancing they realize full well that this strated again that military conflict US and Russian interests, while requires finally overcoming their is still possible in Europe. By Stephanie Liechtenstein taking into account the prefer- divisions and hesitations. In his This is aggravated by a gen- ence by the like-minded group to freedom of opinion. In the process he is abandoning philippic, Donald Tusk outlined eral increase in military activ- initiate a structured dialogue on what it would take: “a definite ity, including the stationing of The current conventional arms the Adapted CFE Treaty once to engage in negotiations on the conventional arms control. reinforcement of the EU’s exter- Russian and NATO forces along control regime has been in crisis Russia had completely withdrawn Vienna Document’s moderniza- As a result, the 57 partici- nal borders; improved coopera- strategic borders, a rise in military since 2007, when Russia sus- its forces from Georgia and Mol- tion, thus worsening the crisis of pating OSCE states, including tion of the services responsible exercises, as well as pended its participa- dova (Istanbul Commitments). the conventional arms control the US and Russia, adopted a for combating terrorism; an large-scale sea and tion in the Treaty on While Russia partially withdrew, regime. consensus decision at the 2016 increase to defense spending; air maneuvers. This Conventional Armed the West insisted on full with- In order to reverse this crisis, OSCE Ministerial Council, in strengthening of the EU as a has significantly Forces in Europe drawal. Linking the Istanbul Germany formed a group of like- which they commit to “explor- whole as well as better coordi- heightened the risk (CFE), which was Commitments with the coming minded states that supported the ing, inter alia, how the negative nating individual member states’ of military accidents. negotiated during into force of the Adapted CFE German initiative, yet without the developments concerning the foreign policies.” Against this back- the final years of Treaty eventually led to deadlock. participation of the United States conventional arms control and It is a tall order. Europe is still drop, former German the Cold War. It Two other key documents of and Russia. CSBM architecture in Europe battered by the global finance Foreign Minister set equal limits on the conventional arms control The US contended that can be reversed.” This should crisis, the refugee crisis and the Frank-Walter Stein- the amount of con- regime are the Treaty on Open relaunching a dialogue on con- happen within a structured dia- Brexit crisis. But the Trump meier, who chaired PRIVATE ventional weapons Skies, which permits unarmed ventional arms control is impru- logue on broader security chal- presidency could be a wake-up the Organization for Stephanie Liechtenstein that NATO and the aerial surveillance flights over dent at a time when fundamental lenges, such as those suggested Security and Coop- works as web editor-in- Warsaw Pact could are in question and call: the Europeans’ last chance chief for the “Security and the territory of the 34 State principles by the US and Russia. to get their act together. eration in Europe Human Rights Monitor.” deploy. An adapted Parties, as well as the Vienna existing agreements are being The momentum that has been It is also the only chance to (OSCE) in 2016, She held several positions version was signed in Document on Confidence- and violated. The US suggested that created by the adoption of this convince the new US presi- launched an initia- at the OSCE in Vienna 1999, reflecting new Security-Building Measures a conversation on other secu- decision should not be lost, espe- between 2003 and 2008. dent that the alliance with the tive to revive conven- realities and intro- (CSBMs), which foresees infor- rity issues, such as transnational cially given the uncertainty about Old World is worth saving tional arms control ducing national and mation sharing, inspections threats, be held first. the future of US-Russian rela- and to end the spiral of dis- as “a tried and tested territorial ceilings. and evaluations in the military Russia, on the other hand, tions. The ball is now in the court trust and discrimination that, means of risk-reduction, trans- Russia’s unilateral suspension realm. As Moscow is against stipulated that conventional arms of the Austrian OSCE chairman- unstopped, would spell the end parency and confidence-building came after NATO states main- increasing transparency in the control should be discussed in ship to devise a dialogue format of the West. n between Russia and the West.” tained that they would only ratify current circumstances, it refuses connection with other strategic within the OSCE. n Security Strategy Security Challenges Security Briefs
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