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RENEWABLE DEVELOPMENT IN

Li Junfeng NCSC and CREIA 6 March, 2019 Tokyo Japan CONTENT

• Development review • Development outlook in China • Review of • Driving force development in the world • control • Hydro • GHG emission control • • • Solar • National target • Review of renewable energy • 2020 development in China • 2030/35 • Hydro • 2050 • Wind • conclusion • Solar DEVELOPMENT REVIEW Renewable energy started to be paid attention since 1973,after 45 year development, renewable energy has plied important roles both in the energy security and , especially for . OVERVIEW

• Since 1973, share of renewable 12.0% 16000.0 energy increased from 5% to over 14000.0 10.0%

10%, doubling of the share in total 12000.0 8.0% 10000.0 • And the total amount of renewable 6.0% 8000.0 supply increased from 300 to about 6000.0 1400 million tons of oil equivalent 4.0%

4000.0

2.0% 2000.0

0.0% - 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Share of renewable Totalenergy use Eenewable

• Since 1973 hydropower generation 4500.0 increased from 909 TWHs to 4000.0

about4000TWHs 3500.0

• Share of hydropower in the total 3000.0

energy use increased to about 7% 2500.0

2000.0

1500.0

1000.0

500.0

- 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 WIND AND SOLAR

• By the end of 2018, both wind and 600000 solar installation were over 500000 500 GW, of which Wind with 550GW

and solar with 510 GW 400000 • The total installation of wind and 300000 solar reached the total installation

of hydropower 200000

100000

0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Solar Wind COST REDUCTION OF RENEWABLES

• The cost of all of the renewable energy were reduced, especially the • The generation cost of solar PV has reached less then 2 to 3 dollar cents of kWh • In the most of the case solar is the lowest cost power generation options REVIEW OF RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA

Renewable energy is one of active sectors in China, both hydro, wind and solar reached the top in the world HYDROPOWER

• In the end of 2017, total 4500.0 hydropower generation in was 4000.0 reached about 1200 TWHs, which 3500.0 takes about 30% of total world 3000.0

hydro power 2500.0

• It is more than the total power 2000.0 generation of Japan 1500.0

1000.0

500.0

- 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 China Total World WIND AND SOLER

• By the end of 2018, the total 4500.0 installation of wind and solar PV 4000.0 installation both had been 3500.0 increased to about 190 GW, all of 3000.0

them takes about 1/3 of the world 2500.0

installations 2000.0

• The power generation of solar and 1500.0

the wind reached about 500TWHs, 1000.0

which is about of half of total power 500.0 generation of Japan - 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 China Total World DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOK IN CHINA DRIVING FORCE

• Improve • Ensure Energy Security • Protect the environment • Fight Against Climate Change • Promote Sustainable Development GOALS

• By 2020, • Non-fossil energy in consumption reaches 15%. To be completed. • The share of natural accounts for no less than 10%. To be completed. • accounts for no more than 60%. Completed. • By 2030, • Non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption reaches 20%. • peak is basically realized. • By 2050, • Non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption accounts for more than 50%. • Non-fossil energy power generation reaches 80%. • Carbon dioxide back to 2005 or 2010 levels. GOALS

• By 2020 • Hydro 350 GW • Solar 250 GW (110) • Wind 230 GW (200) • By 2030 • Hydro 400 GW • Solar 800-1000 GW • Wind 400-500 GW • By 2050 • Hydro 450 GW • Solar more than 2000 GW • Wind more than 1000 GW

ACTIONS

• In 2020, the Chinese government will • China has set out to establish a national submit its strategy for ultra-low carbon market to promote emission emissions by 2050 to the international reduction through market mechanism. community. • The NEA has introduced a quota system • The National Energy(NEA) to promote the development of Administration has promoted an energy renewable energy. transition centered on . • China is vigorously promoting the • The State Grid has experimented to development of a new generation of supply power 100 percent generated by so that renewable energy. nuclear power can contribute more to and climate change • The Chinese Academy of Sciences has begun to on a new power system combat. which focuses on renewable energy. • The development of electric , cells, and could accelerate energy transition in future. UNCERTAINTY

• The troika of the global energy • China’s commitment: transition is energy security, • Internationally, to 100 percent environmental protection and climate realize the intended nationally change. determined contributions. • After the US withdrew from the Paris • Domestically, Agreement, the troika of energy • To lower PM2.5 to 35PPM by 2030 transition lost one carriage. • To initially build a developed • If conventional pollutants from fossil country by 2035 and keep the can also be reduced to acceptable PM2.5 below 35PPM levels, energy security will be the only • To initially build a modernized driving force behind the energy country by 2050 and keep the transition. PM2.5 around 10/15/20? 18

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NCSC 2019/3/6