Poll: 2024 New Hampshire Republican Primary

POLL: 2024 NEW HAMPSHIRE

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

New Hampshire will hold the first Republican Presidential Primary in 2024. If Trump runs, will he win? If Trump doesn’t run, who will take his place? Read on to find out.

P: (929) 388-6585 E: [email protected] W: victory-insights.com : @VictoryPolling

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(A) Executive Summary

Speculation about the 2024 GOP Presidential Primary started immediately after Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, and some even before that. Pundits, voters, and insiders alike wondered if Trump would give it another shot and run again. With this question, another was raised: would he win the nomination? The short answer: yes – for now.

But things get trickier as you begin to consider what would happen if Trump opts not to run. Names like Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Mitt Romney, and Ted Cruz have been swirling around for a while now as Republicans start to think about what a post- Trump GOP candidate would look like.

To gain a definitive answer to this question, Victory Insights conducted a series of polls in Iowa and New Hampshire (the first two states to hold contests in the presidential nomination process). In a separate report, we detailed how Trump held a commanding lead in Iowa, with DeSantis and Pence leading the field if Trump doesn’t run.

Now, we’ll dive deep into the New Hampshire results. Here are some of the key takeaways:

 If Trump runs, he’ll win. With the support of 62% of likely voters, Donald Trump would win the New Hampshire Primary with ease.  DeSantis and Pence are the clear frontrunners if Trump doesn’t run. DeSantis holds the lead over Pence, but both poll in the low 20s due to boosts from Trump voters. Cruz and Romney are the only other candidates to poll in the double digits.  Though Romney is one of the top four candidates, he could not run a viable campaign. As one might expect, Romney’s supporters hail from the anti-Trump crowd. However, even in historically-moderate New Hampshire, Romney lacks sufficient support on his own and would benefit little if other candidates drop out.  In broad terms, Iowa and New Hampshire yielded similar results. In both states, Trump held a commanding lead, and DeSantis, Pence, and Cruz polled the highest if Trump doesn’t run.

Read on for a more detailed breakdown of the results.

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(B) If Trump Runs: 2024 New Hampshire Primary Poll Results Trump dominates the ballot for both very likely voters and Republicans in general. Unlikely voters are more likely to support Romney, “someone else,” or state that they are undecided.

70.00%

60.00%

50.00%

40.00%

30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

0.00% Trump Romney Pence DeSantis Haley Cruz Pompeo Noem Someone Undecided Else Among All Republicans Among Very Likely Voters

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(D) 1 Million Simulations: Donald Trump Wins Every Time

Donald Trump: 100% Win Rate

All Others: 0% Win Rate

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(E) If Trump Doesn’t Run: 2024 New Hampshire Primary Poll Results If Trump doesn’t run, Ron DeSantis and Mike Pence assume the frontrunner positions. Interestingly, Ted Cruz takes third place among very likely voters, while Mitt Romney takes third place among all Republicans. Additionally, the percentage of undecided voters essentially doubles in the event that Trump opts not to run.

25.00%

20.00%

15.00%

10.00%

5.00%

0.00% DeSantis Pence Cruz Romney Haley Pompeo Noem Someone Undecided Else Among All Republicans Among Very Likely Voters

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(F) Who Are Trump Voters’ Second Choices?

(G) Increase in Support if Trump Doesn’t Run (Very Likely Voters) Candidates with strong ties to Trump, such as Ted Cruz, Mike Pompeo, and Ron DeSantis enjoy a massive boost in support if Trump doesn’t run, whereas candidates who have clashed with Trump’s base in the past, such as Mitt Romney and Nikki Haley, receive only modest gains.

Cruz +581%

Pompeo +555%

DeSantis +411%

Pence +236%

Noem +178%

Haley +72%

Romney +45%

Someone Else +35%

Undecided +99%

0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700%

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(H) 1 Million Simulations: Who Wins New Hampshire?

Ron DeSantis: 94% Win Rate

Mike Pence: 6% Win Rate

Ted Cruz: <1% Win Rate

Mitt Romney: <1% Win Rate

All Others: 0% Win Rate

(I) Hypothetical Analysis: Narrowed Field The next few sections will detail what would happen if only the four top-polling candidates run for the nomination, in which case votes would flow from low-tier candidates to the remaining top-tier candidates.

Top-Tier Candidates Low-Tier Candidates

Ron DeSantis Nikki Haley Mike Pence Kristi Noem Ted Cruz Mitt Romney Mike Pompeo

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(J) If Trump Doesn’t Run: Voters’ 2nd Choices After being asked whom they’d vote for if Trump doesn’t run, respondents were then asked whom they’d vote for if the candidate they just chose also chose not to run.

20%

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

0% Pence Cruz DeSantis Haley Noem Romney Pompeo Someone Undecided Else

Among All Republicans Among Very Likely Voters

(K) Who Do Low-Tier Supporters Side With? To illustrate what will happen as the field of candidates narrows, this chart displays the flow of support from very likely voters who selected low-tier candidates or someone else/undecided as their first choice but selected a top-tier candidate as their second choice.

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(L) Support for Top-Tier Candidates After Field Narrows This chart shows top tier candidates’ support after adding the support gained by low-tier candidates opting not to run. Values do not sum to 100% due to respondents choosing other low-tier candidates, “someone else,” or “undecided.”

30.0%

4.1% 25.0%

3.3% 20.0%

15.0% 2.0% 24.7% 1.2% 10.0% 20.2%

12.3% 5.0% 11.2%

0.0% DeSantis Pence Cruz Romney

Support Before Field Narrows Additional Support After Field Narrows

(M) 1 Million Simulations: Who Wins the New Hampshire Primary in a Narrowed Field?

Ron DeSantis: 90% Win Rate

Mike Pence: 10% Win Rate

Ted Cruz: <1% Win Rate

Mitt Romney: <1% Win Rate

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(N) Notable Comparisons: New Hampshire Primary vs. Iowa Caucus

New Hampshire 62% Very Likely Primary Voters Iowa Caucus 61%

Trump New Hampshire 52% Primary All Republicans

Iowa Caucus 43% Ballot Percent (If Trump Runs) New Hampshire 8% Very Likely Primary Voters Iowa Caucus 5%

Romney New Hampshire 13% Primary All Republicans

Iowa Caucus 13%

New Hampshire 94% Primary Full Field Iowa Caucus 57%

DeSantis New Hampshire 90% Primary Narrowed Field

Iowa Caucus 54% Win Rate (If Trump Doesn't Run) New Hampshire 6% Primary Full Field Iowa Caucus 36%

Pence New Hampshire 10% Primary Narrowed Field Iowa Caucus 29%

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Polling Methodology N400 (IVR) Republicans March 5-11, 2021 Results Weighted to Mirror Electorate

@VictoryPolling [email protected] victory-insights.com (929) 388-6585