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The United States House of Representatives THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES “Tough but doable” was the way Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Executive Director Howard Wolfson described the Democrats' chances of taking back the House of Representative last Friday. Wolfson had a rough week. Charlie Cook, the respected non-partisan political analyst who is listened to by political reporters, and maybe more importantly, by political PACs, wrote that the math just didn’t seem to be there for the Democrats to pick up the net of six seats they’d need to regain control of the House. During the spring and summer, Cook believed that the Democrats could overcome "the math” with their strength on domestic issues. But, despite a slight edge (48% Democrat- 46% Republican) in the “generic ballot question" (“If the election were held today for Congress, for whom would you vote?”) Democrats haven’t put the issues together in a way to produce the tide it would take to move enough races to produce a Democratic House. Last summer, not only Cook, but top Democrats believed that the Enron, WorldCom and Arthur Anderson scandals, along with the plummeting stock market, had created a climate that could sweep the Democrats back. At one point they even fantasized that all 40 or so competitive races could break their way. But, by August, guns had replaced butter as the overarching national political theme, and the Democrats lost that “mo.” A driving force behind the vote on the Iraq resolution was burning desire by the Democratic leadership to get the focus back on the economy. Indeed, the day after the vote, House Democratic Leader Dick Gephardt and Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle held a high profile economic forum as a signal that the economy was the main concern of Democrats. Getting the focus on the economy is not actually a silver bullet for the Democrats. While polls show that voters are concerned about the economy and believe that the Democrats are slightly better on this issue, it’s not an overwhelming vote of support. The strongest argument that the Democrats can make is that they can provide a check on the Bush administration policies, and this week, a Democratic issue group, Mainstreet USA, is launching a national TV ad campaign with that message. Republican pollster Matthew Dowd says despite that the fact that the public believes the economy is going in the wrong direction, they are looking for positive solutions, not fixing blame on President Bush or the Republicans. The “math” that Cook refers to basically stems from the tiny number of races that are actually in play this year - mainly because of redistricting - which overwhelmingly favored incumbents. Cook Report Congressional analyst Amy Walters, points out that at a similar point 10 years ago, in October 1992, the Cook Report listed 151 of the 435 House seats as competitive. This year that number is in the mid-40s. In 1992, the post- office scandals and retirements also came into play in making more of the races competitive, but redistricting was a major factor 2002 HOUSE OVERVIEW, continued “The power of incumbency is a well-established fact of political life,” says Congressional analyst Rhodes Cook, “but incumbent protection became the dominant theme of this round of congressional redistricting assisted by ever more sophisticated computer programs that can track demographic changes block by block.” Looking at the contest this way, the Democratic hurdle becomes clear. Of the 44 races CBS News and analyst Mark Gersh believe are actively in play, there are 16 districts leaning Democratic, 13 are toss-ups and 15 leaning Republican. There are 186 seats that are strong or likely for Democrats. So to reach the magic number of 218, for a majority, the Democrats would have to win ALL the 16 contests, which are now leaning Democratic, ALL the 13 toss-ups and 3 of the 15 races now leaning toward the Republicans. The Republican math is a lot easier. All they have to do, with 205 solid or likely GOP districts, is to carry 13 of the 15 districts, which are now leaning their way. That’s presuming no big counter-trend occurs in the next two weeks. Stuart Rothenberg, another top non-partisan Congressional analyst, said on October 14 he "wasn’t yet prepared to say that the economy and poor performance of the stock market can’t combine to deliver a blow to the Republicans on November 5.” Another round of plummeting stocks, other bad economic news combined with a targeted Democratic message to use the elections as a check on Republican economic policies could “change the current political equation,” Rothenberg wrote in the Capitol Hill newspaper, Roll Call. So, going into the final two weeks, Mr. Wolfson’s “tough but doable” is starting to look more tough than doable. Following is the analysis of the 435 House districts. We’ve also included lists of the outgoing incumbents who are leaving the Congress, the open seats and the new ones created by redistricting and the women, blacks and Hispanics running this year. ELECTIONS AND PARTISAN CONTROL OF THE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, 1946 TO 2002 Until the 1994 elections, the Democrats had been in control of the House since 1955. Since World War II, the Republicans have had control of the House for 10 years: 1947-1949, 1953-1955, and 1994-2000. In order for the Democrats to regain control of the House, a net gain of 6 seats is needed. Election Democrats Republicans Independents Shift 1946 188 245 55 R 1948 263 171 1 75 D 1950 234 199 1 28 R 1952 213 221 1 22 R 1954 232 203 - 19 D 1956 234 201 - 2 D 1958* 283 153 - 49 D 1960* 262 175 - 22 R 1962 258 176 - 1 R 1964 295 140 - 37 D 1966 248 187 - 47 R 1968 243 192 - 5 R 1970 255 180 - 12 D 1972 242 192 1 12 R 1974 291 144 - 49 D 1976 292 143 - 1 D 1978 277 158 - 15 R 1980 243 192 - 34 R 1982 269 166 - 26 D 1984 253 182 - 15 R 1986 257 178 - 5 D 1988 260 175 - 3 D 1990 267 167 1 7 D 1992 258 176 1 9 R 1994 204 230 1 54 R 1996 207 227 1 9 D* 1998 211 223 1 5 D 2000 212 221 2 1 D (208)** (223)** (1) * Because of party switches and special elections actual Democratic line-up on Election Day 1996 was down to 197. **Actual line-up on Election Day 2002 – does not include three vacancies: James Traficant (D-OH), Tony Hall (D-OH) and Patsy Mink (D-HI). Source: Vital Statistics on Congress Table 1-19 HOUSE TURNOVER, 1946-2000 % of Defeated Defeated Total Reelect House Election Retirements* in Primary in General Turnover** % Rate Reelected 1946 32 18 52 107 82.4 75.4 1948 29 15 68 118 79.3 72.9 1950 29 6 32 73 90.5 83.2 1952 42 9 26 81 91.0 81.4 1954 24 6 22 56 93.1 87.1 1956 20 6 16 46 94.6 89.4 1958 33 3 37 79 89.9 81.8 1960 26 5 25 60 92.6 86.2 1962 34 12 22 68 91.5 84.3 1964 33 8 45 91 86.6 79.1 1966 22 8 41 73 88.1 83.2 1968 23 4 9 39 96.8 91.0 1970 30 10 12 56 94.5 87.1 1972 40 12 13 70 93.6 83.9 1974 44 8 40 92 87.7 78.9 1976 47 3 13 67 95.8 84.6 1978 49 5 19 77 93.7 82.3 1980 34 6 31 74 90.7 83.0 1982 40 10 29 81 90.1 81.4 1984 22 3 16 45 95.4 89.6 1986 40 3 6 50 98.0 88.5 1988 23 1 6 34 98.3 92.2 1990 27 1 15 45 96.0 89.6 1992 65 19 24 110 88.3 74.7 1994 48 4 34 86 90.2 80.2 1996 49 2 21 74 94.0 83.0 1998 31 1 6 39 98.3 91.0 2000 22 3 6 101 97.8 90.1 * Includes retirees and those running for other offices. ** Also includes open seats due to deaths and resignations. Source: Vital Statistics on Congress 2001-2002 Table 2-7 HOUSE RACES TO WATCH (Incumbents are marked in bold) VULNERABLE INCUMBENTS: Toss Ups CT-05 JIM MALONEY (D) v. NANCY JOHNSON (R) FL-05 KAREN THURMAN (D) v. Ginny Brown-Waite (R ) KS-03 DENNIS MOORE (D) v. Adam Taff (R) MD-08 Chris Van Hollen (D) v. CONSTANCE MORELLA (R) MN-02 BILL LUTHER (D) v. John Kline (R ) PA-17 TIM HOLDEN (D) v. GEORGE GEKAS (R) Leans Republican CT-02 Joe Courtney (D) v. ROBERT SIMMONS (R ) IL-19 DAVID PHELPS (D) v. JOHN SHIMKUS (R ) IA-01 Ann Hutchinson (D) v. JIM NUSSLE (R) IA-02 Julie Thomas (D) v. JIM LEACH (R ) KY-03 Jack Conway (D) v. ANNE NORTHUP (R ) MS-03 RONNIE SHOWS (D) v. CHIP PICKERING (R) NC-08 Chris Kouri (D) v. ROBIN HAYES (R) WV-02 Jim Humphreys (D) v. SHELLEY MOORE CAPITO (R) Leans Democrat AR-04 MIKE ROSS (D) v. Jay Dickey (R) IA-03 LEONARD BOSWELL (D) v. Stan Thompson (R) KY-04 KEN LUCAS (D) v. Geoff Davis (R) ND-AL EARL POMEROY (D) v. Rick Clayburgh (R) TX-11 CHET EDWARDS (D) v.
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