This Washington Post-Schar School Poll Was Conducted by Telephone Oct
This Washington Post-Schar School poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 13-19, 2020, among a random sample of 1,109 adults in Virginia, including subsamples of 1,001 registered voters and 908 likely voters. Overall, 71 percent of respondents were reached on cellphones and 29 percent on landlines. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS of Glen Mills, Penn.
Unweighted sample size Error margin* Virginia registered voters 1,001 +/-3.5 Virginia likely voters 908 4 *All error margins calculated including design effects due to weighting.
(Full methodological details and sampling error margins for subgroups appended at the end.)
*= less than 0.5 percent
RV=Registered voters LV=Likely voters
1. (ASK IF REGISTERED TO VOTE) I’d like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election this fall: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?
Don't think Already Certain Probably Chances Less than will vote voted No to vote vote 50/50 that (vol.) (vol.) op. 10/19/20 VA 77 2 3 1 1 16 *
2. (ASK IF CERTAIN OR PROBABLY VOTE) Do you think you’ll (vote in person at a polling place ON Election Day), or (vote early either by mail or in person BEFORE Election Day)?
Vote on Vote Already No Election Day early voted (vol.) opinion 10/19/20 VA 46 33 20 1
3. (ASK IF VOTE EARLY OR ALREADY VOTED) How do you think you will/did you vote - (in person at an early voting location), (by dropping off a ballot at a designated drop- box), or (by mail)?
Drop off No In person ballot Mail opinion 10/19/20 VA 59 13 28 *
2/3 NET
------Vote early ------Vote on In Drop off No No Election Day NET person ballot Mail op. opinion 10/19/20 VA 46 53 31 7 15 * 1
1
4. If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were [(Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Republicans), (Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Democrats)], or Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen of the Libertarian Party, for whom would you vote? Would you lean toward [(Trump and Pence), (Biden and Harris)], or Jorgensen and Cohen? (IF ALREADY VOTED) Confidentially and for statistical purposes only, did you vote for...?
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE
None Would Other of these not vote No Trump Biden Jorgensen (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) op. 10/19/20 VA LV 41 52 3 * * * 4
5.(ASK IF REGISTERED TO VOTE) Who do you trust more to handle [ITEM] – (Trump) or (Biden)?
10/19/20 – Summary table among Virginia registered voters
Both Neither No Trump Biden (vol.) (vol.) opinion a. the economy 45 48 * 5 2 b. the coronavirus outbreak 36 54 1 7 2
Thinking now about the U.S. Senate race in Virginia, 6. If the election were today would you vote for (Mark Warner, the Democrat) or (Daniel Gade, the Republican)? Would you lean toward (Warner) or (Gade)? (IF ALREADY VOTED) Did you vote for...?
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE
Would Other Neither not vote No Warner Gade (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) opinion 10/19/20 VA LV 57 39 * * 0 4
Thinking about the election for U.S. House of Representatives, 7. If the election were held today, would you vote for the (Democratic candidate) or the (Republican candidate) in your congressional district? Would you lean toward the (Democratic candidate) or toward the (Republican candidate)? (IF ALREADY VOTED) Did you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate) in your congressional district?
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE
Would Democratic Republican Other Neither not vote No candidate candidate (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) opinion 10/19/20 VA LV 50 42 * 1 * 7
8. Amendment 1 on Virginia ballots this fall is a proposal to amend the state constitution to establish a redistricting commission of citizens and members of the Virginia General Assembly. The commission would be responsible for drawing congressional and state legislative districts. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this proposal? (IF ALREADY VOTED) Did you vote yes or no on this proposal?
Vote yes Vote no No opinion 10/19/20 VA LV 51 32 17 2
9a. (IF VOTING FOR TRUMP) Thinking about when the vote count is complete in November, if Biden has more votes than Trump in enough states to win the presidential election, are you willing to accept Biden's victory as legitimate, or are you not willing to do that?
Willing Not willing Depends No to accept to accept (vol.) opinion 10/19/20 VA 66 26 6 2
9b. (IF VOTING FOR BIDEN) Thinking about when the vote count is complete in November, if Trump has more votes than Biden in enough states to win the presidential election, are you willing to accept Trump's victory as legitimate, or are you not willing to do that?
Willing Not willing Depends No to accept to accept (vol.) opinion 10/19/20 VA 64 31 3 2
10.(ASK IF REGISTERED TO VOTE) On another subject, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
------Approve ------Disapprove ------No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 10/19/20 VA RV 41 30 11 57 7 50 2 9/30/19 VA RV 40 27 12 58 6 52 3 10/29/17 VA RV 36 24 12 60 10 50 5 10/2/17 VA RV 34 20 14 60 10 50 6 5/14/17 VA RV 36 21 15 60 7 53 4
11. (ASK IF REGISTERED TO VOTE)Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ralph Northam is handling his job as governor of Virginia? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?
------Approve ------Disapprove ------No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 10/19/20 VA RV 56 27 29 38 9 29 6 9/30/19 VA RV 49 16 33 31 12 17 23 9/30/19 VA 47 15 32 29 12 17 23 2/8/19 VA RV 43 20 23 45 15 31 12 2/8/19 VA 43 18 24 44 15 30 13
Compare to:
Terry McAuliffe: ------Approve ------Disapprove ------No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 5/14/17 49 19 30 25 11 14 26 8/14/16 53 22 31 31 13 18 16
Bob McDonnell:
------Approve ------Disapprove ------No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 9/22/13 RV 49 13 36 39 22 17 11 5/2/13 RV 64 19 44 27 14 13 9 9/16/12 RV 58 24 34 27 13 14 15 5/2/12 RV 58 18 40 36 19 16 7 3
5/4/11 RV 64 23 41 26 12 13 11
Tim Kaine:
------Approve ------Disapprove ------No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 5/4/11* 58 24 34 30 14 15 12 10/25/09 LV 58 23 35 38 17 21 4 10/7/09 LV 60 25 36 37 19 19 2 9/17/09 LV 59 27 33 38 17 22 2 8/14/09 56 21 34 36 18 18 8 9/21/08 RV 66 NA NA 25 NA NA 9 10/8/07 All 63 25 12 10/12/06 LV 77 19 4 *2011: Thinking back to when Tim Kaine was governor, would say you approve or disapprove of the way Kaine handled his job as governor?
Mark Warner:
------Approve ------Disapprove ------No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 10/26/05 LV 80 NA NA 17 NA NA 3 9/9/05 RV 76 NA NA 22 NA NA 2
Jim Gilmore:
------Approve------Disapprove------No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Strongly Somewhat opinion 10/25/01 LV 62 25 37 33 18 16 5 8/23/01 RV 57 NA NA 36 NA NA 7 8/27/00 RV 70 25 45 20 8 12 10
George Allen:
------Approve------Disapprove------No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 10/21/97 66 NA NA 27 NA NA 6 9/16/97 RV 67 NA NA 26 NA NA 7
12. (ASK IF REGISTERED TO VOTE) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Northam is handling the coronavirus outbreak?
Approve Disapprove No opinion 10/19/20 VA 64 32 4
13. (ASK IF REGISTERED TO VOTE) How do you feel about the possibility that you or someone in your immediate family might catch the coronavirus – very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all?
Already ---- Worried ------Not worried ------caught No NET Very Smwht NET Not too Not at all it (vol.) op. 10/19/20 VA 65 27 38 30 18 12 5 *
14. (ASK IF REGISTERED TO VOTE) Considering the coronavirus situation, do you think Virginia’s current restrictions on businesses and public gatherings are (too strict), (not strict enough), or about right?
Too Not strict About No strict enough right opinion 4
10/19/20 VA 21 25 53 1
15. (ASK IF REGISTERED TO VOTE) Do you think most people in your community are taking social distancing and mask-wearing (too seriously), (not seriously enough), or are most people striking the right balance?
Taking it Not seriously Striking the No too seriously enough right balance opinion 10/19/20 VA 8 36 55 1
16. (ASK IF REGISTERED TO VOTE) Do you support or oppose requiring all public schools in Virginia to open for in-person classes five days a week?
Support Oppose No opinion 10/19/20 VA 35 59 6
Party ID. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what?
Democrat Republican Independent Other (vol.) No opinion 10/19/20 RV 30 25 29 15 1 9/30/19* 34 27 32 4 3 2/8/19 33 25 39 2 2 10/29/17 32 24 32 7 6 10/2/17 34 24 32 6 5 5/14/17 34 24 33 5 3 10/30/16 30 24 36 6 5 8/14/16 31 21 37 7 3 10/27/13 32 24 31 6 7 9/22/13 33 24 33 6 5 5/2/13 28 26 33 8 4 10/26/12 31 23 36 6 3 9/16/12 32 24 35 5 4 5/2/12 31 25 36 5 2 *9/30/19 and previous among Virginia adults
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Demographics of weighted sample
% of Virginia registered voters Men 47 Women 53
Age 18-39 35 Age 40-64 43 Age 65+ 22
High school or less 30 Some college 30 College graduates 39
White, non-Hispanic 69 Black, non-Hispanic 20
5
Hispanic 4 Other/Multiple 8
METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS
This poll was sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government and is a random sample of adults, registered voters and likely voters in Virginia. Sampling, fieldwork and data processing by SSRS of Glenn Mills, Penn.
This questionnaire was administered in English with the exact questions in the exact order as appears in this document unless otherwise noted. Demographics, religious identity questions are not shown. If a question was asked of a reduced base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the group asked. Phrases surrounded by parentheticals within questions indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents.
To sample, phone numbers were drawn randomly from cellphone area codes and exchanges in the state, a database of out-of-state cellphone numbers whose users are billed within the state along with landlines with in-state area codes and exchanges. The cell/landline allocation is proportional to the share of residents who mostly or exclusively use cellphones, per the most recent state estimates from the federal National Health Interview Survey.
The final sample was weighted to account for differential chance of selection among adults who are cellphone-only, landline-only and dual users. Data were then weighted to U.S. Census Bureau’s one-year 2018 American Community Survey benchmarks for the citizen voting-age population using the following variables: gender, geopolitical region, educational attainment, age, race/ethnicity and race by education.
Up to its final disposition, each sampled phone number received a minimum of four dialings, at different times of day on different days. Interviews were carried out by professional live interviewers managed by SSRS. Cell respondents were screened for being 18 or older and their state of voter registration and/or residence was confirmed. Landline respondents were selected by randomly asking for the youngest male or female resident at home over 18.
All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.4 for this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision.
Contact [email protected] for further information about how The Washington Post conducts polls.
The Washington Post is a charter member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, which recognizes organizations that disclose key methodological details on the research they produce.
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