V21, N6 Thursday, Sept. 17, 2015

Delph, shutdown reshape INSen race too great for me to Stutzman, Young won’t enter the open United rule out closing federals, States Senate race, or any race, in 2016. while Holcomb differs My responsibility as a husband and a father By BRIAN A. HOWEY trumps the duty and – The deci- noble calling of public sion by State Sen. to forgo service.” the Republican U.S. Senate race and The Delph deci- a policy split surrounding a potential sion and the willing- government shutdown between the ness of U.S. Reps. two congressmen and and are ushering in a to con- new sequence in this sider a government wide open nomina- shutdown separates tion fight. them from Holcomb. It On Tuesday, comes as new polling apparently after the shows that more than Delph family female 70% of Americans are caucus weighed in, Delph said in a blog against closing down posting, “While I have been grateful the federal govern- and humbled by the encouragement, ment. But the reality confidence, and support granted to me, of an Republi- it has become increasingly apparent U.S. Reps. Marlin Stutzman (top left) and Todd Young (lower) can U.S. Senate primary that the burden on my family would be have a government shutdown on the table, while Eric Holcomb (right) calls for other methods. (HPI Photos by Matthew Butler) Continued on page 3 Delph boosts Stutzman By FORT WAYNE – The decision of State Sen. Mike Delph not to try for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. boosts the candidacy of Congressman Marlin Stutzman for a very simple reason: Stutzman can now move more to the left. It “You know, it’s interesting to me. will be interesting to see how quickly and regularly he does Mr. Trump said he heard Mr. so. Bush very clearly in what Mr. Delph is a conserva- tive warrior. Whether you like Bush said. I think women all over him or not – I do, and have known him since his staff days this country heard very clearly in Washington – Mike Delph what Mr. Trump said.” doesn’t live in a waffle house. He has become a particular - , at the CNN champion for issues of great debate on Trump comments concern to conservative Chris- Page 2

tians in Indiana. While at times Delph the substantive background of Delph pushed the envelope a bit far but, for (his skills are more political), but in example, unless someone forces a his early days he was at least as hard debate about the legitimate trade-off right as Delph. of religious rights and those asserted In other words, Delph and by others, the religious rights will just Stutzman shared the same minor- be trampled. ity base within the Republican Party Growing up in the conserva- with Eric Miller. John Price, who ran tive movement, I understood the dif- for Senate in 1998 against nominated ference between pushing the debate and Peter Rusthoven, is a non-partisan newslet- to move the system in a conservative was similar in approach. The right fac- direction and actually governing. But tion (I was the left-wing part of the far ter based in Indianapolis and without healthy debate, how does one right – for example, M. Stanton Evans Nashville, Ind. It was founded arrive at a governing compromise? loved calling me a “Bowen symp”) is in 1994 in Fort Wayne. Governing is like a good about a third of the state Republican It is published by old-fashioned tug of war, with two Party. WWWHowey Media, LLC sides pulling the rope for the chance This faction successfully to govern. A winning team requires a backed Treasurer 405 Massachusetts Ave., number of things, one of which is the over Sen. in the 2012 Suite 300 Indianapolis, IN people setting the pole of the debate primary. But ultimately Sen. Lugar was 46204 to pull the middle toward their point too old, not responsive enough to In- of view. Then others on the team diana, Mourdock was an experienced Brian A. Howey, Publisher are along the continuum, pulling that candidate who had won multiple times direction for their team at different statewide, and frankly, won his debate Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington points along the rope. If the rope is with Lugar. It wasn’t just about ideol- Jack E. Howey, Editor slack toward the middle, you lose. But ogy. However, after winning the nomi- Mary Lou Howey, Editor ultimately it is the strength of the total nation, Mourdock blew his lead, the Maureen Hayden, Statehouse team to the right or left of the middle, election, and nearly took down Mike Mark Curry, photography including those nearer to the middle, Pence with him after his comments on that determines the ultimate victor. rape and further re-enforced And all parts of the team are needed. the campaign theme of Subscriptions moved from a that Mourdock was “my way or the HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 national advocate for a more purist highway.” HPI Weekly, $350 conservative government to getting Mourdock’s defeat likely will Ray Volpe, Account Manager selected as Republican Conference ultimately shape this Senate primary chairman, a position requiring that he election more than any other issue. 317.602.3620 represent all Republicans. When he Another Senate candidate who blows email: [email protected] ran for , I suggested that as up would not only cost the Republi- governor, Mike would remain commit- cans a second Senate seat in Indiana, Contact HPI ted to conservative values but that but possibly control of the entire Unit- www.howeypolitics.com governing was not the same as advo- ed States Senate. It probably would cacy. I felt he would look for conser- cost Pence the governor’s race as [email protected] vative solutions that would work when well (the Democrats don’t seem to be Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 not in the primary position of lobbying capable of winning it). It could even Washington: 202.256.5822 for the most conservative position. lead to an Obama-like Democrat presi- Business Office: 317.602.3620 This has proven to be true. Complain- dential upset in Indiana. The stakes of ing is easy; governing is not. making another risky mistake are very There was really no path high. © 2015, Howey Politics Indiana. to victory in the Senate race for Mike Congressman Todd Young is All rights reserved. Photocopy- Delph. He is known as an effective more conservative than Lugar, has a ing, Internet forwarding, fax- advocate for the social conservative military record, and is widely regarded ing or reproducing in any form, movement and for generally hard- as a Member of substance in Washing- whole or part, is a violation of line conservative positions. Stutzman ton. He also already defeated Baron comes from within the same small Hill, when Hill was an incumbent. federal law without permission group. Stutzman, for example, was a Eric Holcomb, also more conservative from the publisher. supporter of Eric Miller for governor than Lugar (he was district director over . He does not have for Congressman ), is Page 3 well-liked and respected as a great organizer, but with no was. compelling electoral record. It is not clear whether Stutzman can reach, hold Especially Young but also Holcomb may gain or exceed one-third voter support in a primary. He has a somewhat in the Indianapolis metro from Delph’s with- history of rather large “oops” at bad times, but the op- drawal, but likely not as much, net, as Stutzman will portunity certainly is there. Delph’s non-candidacy moved statewide. Delph’s decision will, once again, most impor- Stutzman from a potentially fourth place finish if Delph had tantly give Stutzman room to move to the left and back- run to now having the actual potential to win. v track from his previous statements and record. Stutzman is likable, has strong moral and conservative values, and his Souder is a former Republican congressman from campaign ability is often underestimated. In some ways, Fort Wayne. he is like former Congressman Hostettler who won six terms in a congressional district less conservative than he

from each other,” Delph acknowledged. ”I don’t completely Senate race, from page 1 agree with that, just because that’s not been where the evidence lies in my Senate district. I have different people may lie in that 30% who are ready for a decisive show- support me for different reasons. Some can be for me for down over funding and will be more redistricting reform or ethics reform. Others can be for my apt to vote next May. positions on immigration where I have a very black and Delph pondered joining the field, but told HPI in white position. I have people support me because of my August that the decision would be made by his wife and family and how I raised my family and home schooling. five daughters. “With the unexpected retirement an- They think I’m a guy who would represent them and their nouncement of Sen. Dan Coats taking place values well. It’s not necessarily a one-to-one comparison.” during a very busy And Delph acknowledged that Stutzman support- 2015 session of the ers like the ’s David McIntosh and other Indiana General Assem- Super PACs were encouraging him to stay out of the race. bly, my attention was “We’ve tried to be supportive of one another with each rightfully focused on other’s careers,” Delph said of his former Indiana Sen- serving my constituents ate office mate. When he met with various Super PACs in in the Indiana State Washington in June, Delph said he was told, “Marlin has Senate,” he explained in an outstanding record as a conservative in Congress. He’s a blog posting Tuesday giving up his congressional seat. He’s already out there, morning. “As such, I you know. It would be better for the conservative cause if did not have the ability you wouldn’t muddy the waters for Marlin.” to appropriately evalu- ate whether I should consider becoming a Campaigns react to Delph decision Trevor Foughty, Young’s campaign manager, candidate. Since ses- doesn’t believe the Delph decision will have much of an sion adjourned, at the impact. “I don’t think it changes much for us,” Foughty urging of supporters said. “I’m not surprised, based on some of the things across the State of Sen. Delph has said in the past, on the family decision Indiana, I have spoken to a number of grassroots activ- and time commitment. Still, it’s full steam ahead for us. I ists, GOP donors, friends, family, and neighbors to try to think Todd’s got a message that resonates with all wings properly assess the 2016 race.” of the party. He’s championed the REINS Act, which plays Most observers saw a Delph entry as dicing up big with Tea Party wing. He’s authored bills to take apart the evangelical, Christian conservative and Tea Party vote Obamacare that plays into the Tea Party wing. Todd Young that Stutzman believes he can feed off of. The bookend to stands on principles and does it by passing legislation. It’s that is that Young and Holcomb are both feeding off the our assumption moving forward.” more moderate, Daniels wing of the Indiana Republican Holcomb told HPI he didn’t see much impact of Party. A Delph entry, the theory went, would have helped Delph’s decision. “Our campaign has been and will be Young, or perhaps Holcomb, though Young is underscoring about what we are for,” Holcomb said Tuesday afternoon. his conservative credentials while Stutzman suggested on “I’m not focused on opposition. Our campaign is being Wednesday that he is the true conservative. built to last and I am encouraged with the response we’re In an HPI interview last August, Delph dealt with getting.” that notion. “The school of thought is we’ll take votes Page 4

Stutzman campaign manager Brendon DelToro After that occurred, Stutzman blamed President Obama had a similar assessment: “We are focused on running our for refusing to negotiate. It then produced this exchange: race. Marlin is the proven, tested conservative in the race.” “We’re not going to be disrespected,” Stutzman told David Drucker of the Washington Examiner. “We have to get The defund and potential shutdown something out of this. And I don’t know what that even Prior to the Delph announce- is.” ment, Young and Stutzman were pre- That quote earned Stutzman (pictured paring for the volatile issue of Planned left) the “Worst Week in Washington” des- Parenthood defunding and the potential ignation by ’s Fix blog that it could force a government shut- on Oct. 4, 2013. Post blogger down. Both congressmen wouldn’t rule called him the “shutdown’s poster boy.” out a shutdown. So a similar dynamic is in play: Repub- Stutzman, who is a member of licans are taking a stand that President the which is advocating Obama will surely reject. In the context the defund effort, acknowledged the anger he has found of the race, Young and regarding videos made of Planned Parenthood officials Stutzman are jockeying for position on the right to appeal talking about the sale of fetal body parts for research. “As to that likely primary voter who won’t view it in the Mc- I’ve traveled the state, I have heard from countless Hoo- Connell terms of “futility.” siers who are outraged over the release of the investiga- tive videos and who are tired of their tax dollars going to Holcomb differentiates fund Planned Parenthood,” said Stutzman in a statement Holcomb told Fox59’s Dan Spehler last week that to Howey Politics Indiana on Monday. “Congress needs to he supports the defunding effort, but added, “I hope the defund Planned Parenthood and instead fund alternative government doesn’t shut down over it.” women’s healthcare programs. I hope we are able to build Holcomb explained, “This goes beyond the pale. consensus around a solution that permanently defunds This has got to be addressed. Anyone who has seen the Planned Parenthood.” videos, even one of the videos, Young said in a statement to Howey Politics, “The comes to the conclusion that atrocities taking place at Planned Parenthood are gut- this is despicable behavior, wrenching and almost too much to bear, especially as a suspected for a long time and parent with four young children at home. I supported calls now confirmed. Even people for a congressional investigation when light was shed on on the other side of the aisle these inhumane, gruesome practices, and look forward to have taken pause. That money defunding Planned Parenthood in the days ahead through needs to be redirected. We legislation I strongly support and cosponsored in the have hundreds of clinics all House.” over the state of Indiana that As for shutting the government down, which last money could be redirected. occurred in October, 2013, Young spokeswoman Lauren There are way too many Beebe told HPI, “The congressman hopes it doesn’t come questions that need to be ad- to that, but at this point, all options remain on the table.” dressed.” Holcomb said there In 2013, Stutzman supported the 16-day shutdown, while are “other possibilities” that can be used to resolve the Young sided with keeping the government open. Sen- Planned Parenthood funding issue. ate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell called shutting the On Tuesday, Holcomb told HPI that it will be this government down over the issue an “exercise in futility” issue that potentially differentiates him from the congress- and House Speaker and his leadership team men. “The one thing different about me from them is I’m are working to keep the shutdown from occurring while not in Congress. They have to make their own decisions, reportedly trying to fend off a coup. McConnell explained, but I hope we don’t shut the government down. The “The honest answer of that is that’s not going to happen more I hear from the general public, they are sour on the until you have a president who has a similar view.” constant talk of a shutdown and the dysfunction in Wash- Foughty told HPI on Tuesday, “I think we ought ington. That ought not be our strategy.” to start by acknowledging that for people who are pro life Holcomb said that President Obama “likes to talk and for those who don’t feel strongly on the issue, the shutdown, he likes to throw that at us. We’ve seen this Planned Parenthood videos are disturbing. We’ll see what movie before. We see how it ends. So I think if anything, happens this week and beyond that see how the House he’ll welcome that rhetoric.” and Senate move on these.” U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan, who heads the 40-member Stutzman, a close ally to Heritage Foundation Freedom Caucus that counts Stutzman as an influential President Jim DeMint, was an early advocate in 2013 of member, told Cleveland.com, “Given the appalling revela- defunding Obamacare, which led to the 16-day shutdown. tions surrounding Planned Parenthood, we cannot in good Page 5 moral conscience vote to send taxpayer money to this TV ad, coming with last night’s CNN presidential debate. organization while still fulfilling our duty to represent our Young opens by talking about “debating courage” but constituents. No one wants to shut down the government, added, “the courage to act is even better,” alluding to his but I believe that Congress should take the money that is U.S. Navy and Marine career. Young said that “courage currently going to Planned Parenthood and give it to feder- is what’s needed to protect the unborn and reform the ally qualified clinics that are pro- tax code” and added that “priority one viding more comprehensive care must be the full repeal of Obamacare.” to women. If President Obama He invites viewers to go to his cam- and Harry Reid want to shut down paign website and sign a petition. the government over an allegiance The ad drew a rebuke from Indi- to that one particular organization, ana Democratic Chairman , instead of funding our troops and who said, “From voting more than 50 funding women’s health care, then times to revoke health care from mil- that’s a sad commentary on their lions of Americans to working against priorities.” the middle class, including op- Last Thursday, White posing efforts to increase the minimum House spokesman Josh Earnest wage, Todd Young has made it clear he explained, “Right now, we’re going to need to see lead- would put the special interests of Washington ahead of ers in Congress accept the invitations from Democrats in improving the overall well-being of everyday families back Congress to try and negotiate a bi-partisan agreement on home. So while Todd Young’s campaign must think this the budget. If Republican leaders maintain their insistence $10,000 ad buy was a clever move, it really tells on trying to pass a budget along party lines, then we are that he is afraid his already out of touch ideology isn’t going to be headed for a shutdown. Because it’s clear to conservative enough to win the Republican nomination.” anybody that’s been paying attention over the last several Republican Horse Race Status: Tossup. months, that they don’t have the votes to pass a budget.” President Obama would be expected to Democratic field in flux any legislation that would defund Planned Parenthood. So the GOP field appears set, while the Demo- The measure of last resort would be for congressional cratic field is still in flux. Former congressman Republicans to refuse to fund the government. Holcomb and former ARC of Indiana director John Dickerson have explained, “We live in a dangerous world. We don’t want declared, while Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott is the ultimate outcome to shut the government down which expected to seriously weigh a bid following an expected would have a ripple effect in all sorts of other areas. I victory for a fourth term in November. On Tuesday, the know folks are gearing up to talk about this. I hope it NWI Times editorial board urged him to stay out of the doesn’t get there. It needs to be resolved, and there’s a race. “I think I would fare well statewide in the Demo- way to do that.” cratic primary,” McDermott said. “But if I were to win my party’s nomination, I also know I would be facing a Young first on TV superstar from the Republican side.” Democratic Horse Young became the first Senate candidate to air a Race Status: Likely Hill. v

races. While there are multiple Republican candidates Despite anger against filed in the open 3rd and 9th CDs being vacated by U.S. Reps. Marlin Stutzman and Todd Young who are opting for the U.S. Senate race, only in the 5th, 7th and 9th CD DC, few seats in play have declared candidates in both parties, and U.S. Reps. By BRIAN A. HOWEY André Carson and are not seen INDIANAPOLIS – The anger at Washing- as vulnerable this cycle. ton is palpable. The Real Clear Politics composite Here is the earliest 2016 Horse Race congressional approval stands at 15% approval rundown of Indiana’s congressional districts. and 75% disapproving. In the Washington Post- CD1: If there is any buzz coming from ABC News poll released last weekend, more than this district, it is faint talk on whether U.S. Rep. seven in 10 Americans say people in politics can- will seek a 15th term. Hammond not be trusted. More than six in 10 say the political system Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr. has talked about a poten- is dysfunctional. tial challenge, but a U.S. Senate bid seems more likely. But that is not reflected in Indiana congressional Visclosky has $273,446 cash on hand and had $193,000 Page 6 receipts in the second quarter of this year. He defeated Demaree, a veterinarian and Army Reserve officer. Brooks Republican Mark Leyva 86,579 to 51,000 in 2014. No one raised $507,688 in the second quarter and has $1.33 mil- would be surprised if Leyva runs again. Horse Race Sta- lion cash on hand. Horse Race Status: Safe Brooks. tus: Safe Visclosky. CD6: U.S. Rep. has risen into House CD2: This is considered the most competitive leadership in his second term, and is currently unopposed. Indiana congressional seat, but Democrats are having a Messer raised $423,453 in the second quarter and had hard time finding an opponent for U.S. Rep. Jackie Walor- $534,311 cash on hand. In 2014, he defeated Democrat ski. Democrats tried to recruit State Rep. David Niezgodski Susan Heizman 102,187 to 45,507. Horse Race Status: of South Bend, and 2014 nominee Joe Safe Messer. Bock and 2012 nominee Brendan Mullen 7CD: Democrat U.S. Rep. André Carson don’t appear to be seeking a rematch. faces Republican Wayne Harmon, who has Walorski barely fended off Mullen in sought the nomination unsuccessfully in the 2012, winning by fewer than 4,000 past, never receiving more than 5,000 in pri- votes. Walorski raised $475,469 in the mary losses in 2012 and 2014. In 2014, Carson second quarter and has $589,578 cash defeated Republican Catherine Ping 61,443 on hand. Walorski defeated Bock 85,583 to 46,887 with Libertarian Chris Mayo receiv- to 55,590 in 2014. Horse Race Status: ing 3,931 votes. Carson, who won a caucus to Safe Walorski. succeed his late grandmother, , in CD3: With Rep. Stutzman 2008, raised $256,426 in the second quarter opting for the U.S. Senate race, this is a and has $787,762 cash on hand. Harmon re- four-way Republican primary race among ported raising $128 and had $16 cash on hand. State Sens. and Liz Brown, Horse Race Status: Safe Carson. Kosciusko farmer Kip Tom, and former CD8: U.S. Rep. won a Wisconsin State Sen. Pam Galloway. third term in 2014, defeating Democrat Thomas Democrat businessman Todd Nighten- Spangler 103,344 to 61,384, while Libertarian helser has also declared. Brown has Andrew Horning received 6,587 votes. In the $123,174 cash on hand at the end of the second quarter, Bucshon raised $241,344 and second quarter, compared to $134,916 had $409,973 cash on hand. No Democratic cash on hand for Banks. The two have opponent has surfaced. Horse Race Status: similar name ID. Banks has earned State Sen. Jim Banks (top) and Safe Bucshon. endorsements from influential legislators Attorney General are CD9: In the second open seat, being such as Senate President David Long the early favorites in the 3rd and vacated by U.S. Rep. Todd Young, Attorney and a number of other legislators. He 9th CD open seats. General Greg Zoeller, State Sens. Brent Waltz received the Tea Party Express endorse- and , Tea Party activist and engineer Robert ment this week as well as from FreedomWorks PAC. This Hall and former congressional aide Jim Pfaff are seeking could be a three-way competition with Tom having the the GOP nomination. For the Democrats, Monroe County ability to self-fund. Brown is fresh off her Senate victory Commissioner and IT consultant James Mc- in 2014 and has residual high name ID in the Fort Wayne Clure Jr., are running. Yoder lost to Young in 2012. Young media market, but this is the sixth different office she has defeated former Seymour Mayor Bill Bailey 101,594 to sought over the past eight years (winnng the Senate and 55,016 last year. In 2012, Young defeated Yoder 165,332 Fort Wayne Council seats, losing Fort Wayne mayoral and to 132,848. There is some speculation that the field is not school board races). Some of her key Senate race donors set, with former congressman potentially eying are backing Banks. Banks has served two terms in the In- a return. Sodrel’s wife died earlier this year, and Capitol Hill diana Senate and served a military deployment in Afghani- sources tell Howey Politics Indiana that Sodrel has been stan this past year. Horse Race Status: Leans Banks. in Washington frequently this year. At this stage, Zoeller CD4: U.S. Rep. won this seat over would have to be considered a nominal frontrunner since John Dale 94,998 to 47,056 in 2012. He has been report- he has run successfully statewide twice. He is a former edly seriously exploring an attorney general bid in 2016, aide to Vice President . But observers are keep- creating a potentially third open seat. He faces a primary ing a close eye on the two state senators, and particularly challenge from Kevin Grant. Rokita raised $248,712 in the Houchin, who is a former 9th CD chair and aide to U.S. second quarter and has $1.1 million cash on hand. Horse Sen. Dan Coats. Houchin upset former Senate Minority Race Status: Safe Rokita. Leader Richard Young in 2014 and has considerable retail CD5: U.S. Rep. Susan Brooks easily won reelec- campaign skills. The one rap on her is that she is running tion in 2014, defeating Democrat Shawn Denney 105,277 for Congress just months after entering the Indiana Sen- to 49,756, with Libertarian John Krom polling 6,407 votes. ate. The third quarter FEC reports will be revealing. Horse Brooks has a declared Democratic opponent in Angela Jo Race Status: Leans Zoeller. v Page 7

run in ’18 for the Senate, challenging Sen. Joe Donnelly, 2nd CD Democrats the Democrat who beat her in her first congressional race. She would not at that time face a statewide Re- publican primary battle with U.S. Rep. Marlin Stutzman, struggle for candidate the 3rd District Republican who seeks the party’s Senate By JACK COLWELL nomination in ‘16. Stutzman by ’18 either will be in the SOUTH BEND – Democrats haven’t yet run a Senate or out of the picture if he fails this time. “help wanted” ad to find a challenger to U.S. Rep. Jackie Both Stutzman and Walorski running in a state- Walorski, the Republican incumbent now entrenched after wide Republican nomination race would make no political handily winning a second term in Indiana’s 2nd Congres- sense. Both are Tea Party favorites and would split that sional District. And St. Joseph County Democratic Chair- vote, likely enabling a more moderate or establishment Re- man Jason Critchlow says it won’t come to that. publican to win. Stutzman has no primary challenge from While there is “nothing really solid” in terms of a Walorski this time. She would have no challenge from him candidate ready to announce, Critchlow says, there are next time. v prospects and the party will have a nominee to offer a for- Colwell has covered Indiana politics over five decades for midable challenge to Walorski. the South Bend Tribune. They better find a candi- date. Somebody will be the Democratic nominee. If party leaders don’t find somebody to wage a respectable cam- paign, even if not quite a win- A difficult economy ning race, their nominee could be one of those “interesting” is in the making types that filed for congressio- nal nominations, both Repub- By MICHAEL HICKS lican and Democratic side, in MUNCIE – Economy watchers ought to be more the past. than a bit concerned about the US economy in recent There was a farmer who designated an outhouse weeks, and the recent stock market declines might well be as his campaign headquarters, a cross-dresser from In- the least worrisome indicator. First we’ll review the good, dianapolis who files everywhere for everything and a Nazi or the least bad news. meeting speaker. The U.S. economy grew The Democratic Congressional Campaign Commit- at a 2.1 percent rate through tee tried to recruit state Rep. David Niezgodski of South the first half of 2015. This Bend for the race. He met in Washington with DCCC strat- was slower than all economic egists, heard the promises of support and saw poll data on models predicted, including the chances to win. Niezgodski declined, choosing to run those that I have written and again for the Indiana House, where he has made a mark used. However, the first quarter and hopes for increased Democratic legislative strength saw growth of 0.6 percent, with after the 2016 elections. a 3.7 percent rate in second Critchlow acknowledges that a Democratic chal- quarter. This is the third year lenger will have a difficult race against Walorski, who will in which first quarter growth have superior funding and saturation name recognition in was startlingly slow, so many a district gerrymandered for GOP success. economists believe the seasonal Walorski, with way over a half million dollars in adjustment calculations under- campaign funds on hand mid-year and with potential to state actual growth. However, the errors would largely be raise millions more if seriously challenged, could scare captured by the second quarter data. off some of those potential Democratic challengers. An Altogether, the 2.1 percent growth through the upset is of course the Democratic goal. But short of that, first half of 2015 isn’t really good news. With the popula- Critchlow says, a nominee running a good race this time tion growing at a rate just over 1.0 percent, it will take 75 could gain name recognition, campaign experience and years for the standard of living of Americans to double. funding for a successful second try in 2018. Walorski won To contextualize that, think how different the U.S. was in on her second try. 1940. Our standard of living has grown by almost six-fold There could even be an open seat in ’18. Critchlow through that 75-year spread. So, 2.1 percent growth ought notes speculation that Walorski, if she wins a third House to spread alarm. term, would decline to seek a fourth and instead would The second decent piece of news is about the Page 8 labor market. The unemployment rate dropped to early a third of the world into recession, and the turbulent gifts recession levels last month, bringing close to from Greece are far from over. what economists call full employment. Still, last month’s The mavens of the stock market are an odd lot, national news was otherwise not reassuring. Employment whose fabricated expertise usually exposes stock watchers grew by 175,000 positions, but the total labor force saw a to all the emotional ups and downs of a middle school ro- net decline of 261,000 folks. When we account for retire- mance. More sophisticated analysis tells a long-term worry. ments and new workers, we should expect something Even after the recent stock declines, Professor Shiller’s more than 100,000 new workers each month, maybe even cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio suggests stocks 140,000. So, the deep losses put us upside down in labor are still overvalued by 30 percent. At the very best, this is force by more than 400,000 workers last month. Worse going to be a difficult fall for the economy.v still, 158,000 of those 175,000 net new jobs were only part-time thanks to economic reasons. So much for good Michael J. Hicks, PhD, is the director of the Cen- news. ter for Business and Economic Research and the The economic committee that determines the start George and Frances Ball distinguished professor of and stop date of each recession examines labor force, total economics in the Miller College of Business at Ball payroll, industrial production and retail sales. All of these State University. measures are worrisome. Retail sales have been slowing for three years and may be beneath the rate of inflation this summer. Industrial production has slowed for more than six months, and last month’s numbers were the worst in in several years. Payrolls have flattened, and wage in- creases are barely keeping pace with inflation. Altogether, the evidence of slowing growth is pretty significant. The Chinese economy is in real trouble and it will drag perhaps Page 9

include sexual orientation. Pence’s reelect poll Multiple informed and reliable sources are telling Howey Politics Indiana that the Pence administration and legislative Republican leaders are attempting to forge a numbers sag as civil deal that would add sexual orientation to the state’s civil rights code that would address employment and housing rights deal develops concerns, with exemptions extending to hospitals and re- ligious institutions. This effort includes not only the Pence By BRIAN A. HOWEY administration and , but legislative INDIANAPOLIS – Gov. Mike Pence is facing the leaders and Indianapolis Republicans who were sharply most critical two months of his governorship. Multiple critical of RFRA. The sources say an effort may be made informed and reliable sources, citing at least three recent to introduce the package before or on Organization Day polling sources including internal Pence campaign survey in November, with passage coming either on that day or data, are telling Howey Politics Indiana that Pence’s state- during the first week of the next wide reelect numbers are “in January. “They want to get this behind them so the focus the low 30%” range. His favor- will be on Indiana’s economy,” one source told HPI. able/unfavorables are “upside Sources say that Republicans have been urging down.” Gov. Pence and his team to “get out in front” of the issue, These sources tell HPI as opposed to having it drag on for weeks or months next that the polling is consistent winter. Indicative of the delicate nature of these talks with the Howey Politics Indiana is the fact that House Speaker and Senate Poll conducted by Bellwether President David Long have delayed appearances before Research pollster Christine the Indiana Republican Central Committee. A number of Matthews in April, and a second survey she did in mid- Republicans are alarmed at the prospect that the party June for former Angie’s List CEO Bill Oesterle. At least two could lose the governorship and significant chunks of its knowledgeable sources tell HPI that the Pence campaign is legislative super majorities. seeing similar internal numbers. In the April Howey Politics It has prompted speculation that Indianapolis Indiana Poll, Pence’s favor- Mayor could able/unfavorables sagged to challenge Pence. Other 35/38%, polled well below sources tell HPI that Bosma 50% in a head-to-head was approached earlier this matchup with probable summer about a potential Democratic nominee John primary challenge to Pence. Gregg, and found support These meetings were char- for a civil rights exten- acterized as Bosma “hear- sion at 54-34%. A second ing out” concerned Repub- Bellwether Research Poll by licans. The speaker’s office Matthews conducted on be- declined to comment on half of Oesterle in mid-June these reports when asked showed Pence in a dead Wednesday by HPI. heat with Gregg, trailing 41- The Indy Cham- 40% and his favorable/unfa- ber Poll showed Ballard’s vorables stood at 34/43%. approval in Indianapolis Additionally, the re- stood at 65%, and it is in cent surveys reveal that the the low 70th percentile Indiana right/wrong track in the doughnut counties numbers have significantly surrounding Indianapo- shifted toward the latter. The A defiant Gov. Pence kicking off his campaign in June at the Indiana lis. There were persistent driver of that shift was the Republican Spring Dinner. Since then, several polls have shown his reports over the past two Religious Freedom Restora- reelect numbers in the low 30% range. (HPI Photo by Matthew Butler) weeks that Ballard was con- tion Act debacle last April. sidering a primary challenge. And they are consistent with “There’s always a possibility,” said Jennifer Hallowell, a a public Indianapolis Chamber of Commerce Poll in Marion long-time political strategist of the mayor, told HPI. “This County that showed opposition to RFRA tops 50%, while is not occupying his mind or time right now,” Hallowell support was in the mid-30% range. Close to 65% said continued. “A lot of people would like to see what happens the impact on the state image was negative. There is also over the next few months and see how the Statehouse wide support for expanding the state civil rights code to reacts.” Hallowell described the talk as “cocktail chatter.” Page 10

But the stakes are enormous and will play out over ton Township Republican Chair Melissa Thompson told HPI the next couple of months. If Pence’s civil rights compro- that “Scott has never been afraid of a fight,” and said his mise is weak or miscommunicated, Ballard could reassess decision not to seek reelection was due to business and a primary challenge. family priorities. Schneider’s ice business was targeted for Gov. Pence entered office with the reputation as boycott during the RFRA episode. a master communicator in the vein of his political hero, As for the coming SD30 battle, Democrat Tim DeL- President Reagan. But Pence’s leadership tenure in Con- aney, who lost to Schneider by fewer than 1,000 votes in gress was that in the minority party. When it came to a 2012, told HPI that he is undecided about seeking the seat crisis in his administration, Pence fumbled badly on ABC’s next year. Democratic Councilman John Barce is one pos- “This Week” last April when he dodged questions on RFRA sible candidate. On the Republican side, Thompson said and the potential for discrimination. His staff work has that past legislative candidates looking at the race include been shoddy, resulting in the “Last Supper” photo of his Carlos May and Kurt Webber, who lost a previous race private RFRA signing ceremony. He now finds himself as to State Rep. Ed DeLaney. Others weighing bids include a chief executive having to piece together a compromise Tasha Phelps, Becky Bechtel and Sara Rossier. that has the potential of alienating either his social conser- vative base or female and independent voters he will need HD20: Biernacki kicks off campaign to win reelection in November 2016. Longtime social services advocate Karen Biernacki Several Republicans say there are efforts under this evening declared her candidacy for District 20 state way to make the case to social conservatives like Tea representative in front of a crowd gathered at the Carpen- Party activist Monica Boyer that refusal to accept a civil ters Local 1485 Hall in LaPorte. State Rep. , rights code compromise will essentially put Democrat John R-LaPorte, announced last month he would not seek Gregg in the governor’s office. “Will John Gregg be better reelection. Biernacki, who is CEO of Family Advocates (for- for them than Mike Pence?” one county Republican official mer Harmony House/CASA of LaPorte County) said that a asked. guiding theme of her campaign is that “We Can Do Better,” as she pledged to work to change priorities in the legisla- Pence campaign refutes union TV ad ture from “issues that have nothing to do with those things The Mike Pence for Indiana is refuting a TV ad that will improve the lives of Hoosiers.” Specifically, she by the International Union of Operating Engineers Local took aim at the controversial RFRA law passed in the last 150. “Tell us, Governor Pence,” the ad ends after assailing session that “cost Hoosier tourism,” to the legislature elimi- the governor for bridge conditions coming with the state nating “an 80-year-old law that has provided fair wages maintaining a $2 billion surplus. “How many lives is your to local building tradesmen” known as Common Construc- surplus worth?” Pence spokesman Robert Vane told HPI, tion Wage, to the state bypassing an “$80 million federal “The latest Union-funded Democrat on Mike grant for early childhood education” to using tax money Pence is both desperate and dishonest. With $600 million for funding charter schools. Biernacki pledged to fight to in infrastructure improvements signed into law since taking “protect Hoosier children and families” and said that her office, Gov. Pence is making the critical investments neces- 25-year history as a child advocate had taught her “we can sary to keep our state the Crossroads of America.” do better” when it comes to fighting infant mortality and childhood poverty. General Assembly Statewides: Wooten to run for supt SD30: Schneider won’t seek reelection Dawn Wooten, a college-level English instructor at “Exhibit A” in the massive collateral damage RFRA -Purdue University Fort Wayne, is seek- has caused was the announce- ing the Republican nomination for state superintendent ment over the weekend that (Morello, StateImpact). Wooten filed her election paper- State Sen. work and launched a campaign website last week. She is would not seek reelection. the first candidate to emerge as a challenger to current Schneider was the Senate superintendent , a Democrat. Ritz is seeking sponsor of RFRA. One of the her second term after dropping a bid for the governor’s House sponsors, State Rep. seat. Wooten’s name might be familiar to some because , is facing a she served on Indiana’s College and Career Readiness rematch with teacher Jodi Panel, the group that prepared a new set of state aca- Buoscio. Multiple sources tell demic standards after Indiana’s 2013 exit from the Com- HPI that Schneider was see- mon Core. During that stint, she visited the Department of ing polling results showing Education offices at the statehouse in Indianapolis – and him trailing badly in his 2016 that’s part of what compelled her to run. “I did not see a reelection campaign. Washing- lot of initiative or activity in the office, in fact I barely saw Page 11 any people. It made me question, what is this administra- cratic team.” But after that comment was interpreted by a tion doing?” Wooten recounts. “I did not see any policy Courier & Press reporter on as an endorsement of initiatives come out of the administration, and I don’t think Riecken, Weaver, within minutes, said in a phone call that they accomplished what they wanted to.” Wooten home- wasn’t what he meant. Weaver is seeking reelection to his schooled her own daughter and nephew for a number of city council at-large seat. Mosby, who survived a close and years, during which time she used the Indiana state stan- bitter Democratic primary fight with Steve Davis but has dards and textbooks as well as reviewing local curriculum. no opponent in the general election, said she has made She says this experience gave her an awareness of what no mayoral race endorsement. “I am a Democrat, but my is actually going on in the state’s public schools. And what oath is to the 2nd Ward,” Mosby said. “Mayor Winnecke she sees is an aggressive push on the part of the state has been very good to me and my 2nd Ward. (Former and federal government on standardized testing, which Mayor Jonathan) Weinzapfel was, as well.” she says has forced educators to “teach to the test.” That’s Reacting to a Winnecke administration request for why teacher autonomy is one of Wooten’s top priorities. transfer of funds to cover the city’s $8 million cash-flow “My number one priority is to kind of change the thinking problem, Riecken labeled the move “a glaring example of about achievement testing,” Wooten explains. “The state financial mismanagement and irresponsible leadership.” and the federal government are so worried about student “There is no better evidence that this administration is in- test scores, that if they really want to get those to a higher capable of operating within a budget and known revenue.” level, they need to realize that teachers cannot teach to Riecken said. “To make matters worse, they put the blame a test adequately, and students don’t respond to that.” on the ordinance passed by council that ended their shell “There was a time in this state when achievement testing game of moving money around to make all fund balances was done once every two or three years, and it was more look better than they really are.” than enough,” Wooten adds. The Evansville Council tabled the transfer earlier this week. Mayors Winnecke defended his administration’s fiscal management in an Evansville Courier & Journal op-ed Evansville: Riecken stands by comments article: “Before the election season completely consumes State Rep. said she was speaking the airwaves, it is important for the citizens of Evansville to truthfully when she told a statewide political newsletter have accurate information about our city finances without that her campaign for Evansville mayor has the “sup- interjecting politics. It has been confirmed time and time port” of all eight city council again by the state’s independent audits and the indepen- Democrats, although two of dent bond rating agencies that the city has operated in a them claim neutral stances financially sound, efficient and prudent manner. Since tak- (Martin, Evansville Courier ing office, our administration has spent less than what has & Press). Riecken, a Demo- been budgeted by our City Council every year.” crat, is challenging first-term Winnecke said that in the past five years, “Proper- Republican Mayor Lloyd Win- ty tax caps have impacted the city’s general fund by rising necke in the Nov. 3 election. to over $9 million. In addition, the city has seen employee A story published Thursday health care costs increase on an average 12 percent an- in the Howey Politics Indiana addresses infighting with nually the past five years. As examples, these negative the local Democratic Party, and Riecken’s effort to unite all economic forces meant lower property tax receipts of $2 factions behind her campaign. Intraparty squabbles have million in 2012, and in 2015 property tax caps hit $9.6 long been obvious on the council, with Missy Mosby, D- million. It only takes common sense to realize that prop- 2nd Ward, and Jonathan Weaver, D-at-Large, often being erty tax caps have dramatically impacted local government viewed by the other six as being allies of the Winnecke ad- finance, but the positive to that fact is that those dollars ministration. In the Howey story, Riecken, asked about her are now in the hands of our citizens. While our Finance campaign’s support among the city council, answered, “I Department has worked daily to process revenues and have the support of all Democrats on city council.” Riecken expenditures for local government, they have also had to told the Courier & Press Friday that “I’m fine with my expend time and effort to refute countless claims and du- comment” because although Mosby and Weaver have not bious attacks over the past three years. The obvious fact endorsed her, they also are not working on Winnecke’s be- is our city government receives property tax revenue twice half. Riecken said it was her understanding Weaver would a year while payroll, bills and claims are generated weekly attend a Saturday fundraiser for her campaign. Referring directly impacts fund balances and cash flow.”Horse to Mosby and Weaver, Riecken said that if she is elected Race Status: Likely Winnecke. mayor “I think we can work together, and we have support and understanding.” Weaver, asked Friday about his stance Elkhart: Neese, Moore debate on the mayor’s race, replied that Riecken “is the head of Elkhart Mayor Dick Moore and GOP challenger Tim our ticket, the leader of our party, and I’m on the Demo- Neese faced off in two forums Wednesday, their first head- Page 12 to-head public appearances as competitors for the mayoral in making difficult decisions while overseeing a 450-em- post, touching on annexation, gay civil rights, crime and ployee organization with a $35 million annual budget gives more (Vandenack, Elkhart Truth). Moore, a Democrat, put Thomas valuable understanding to make key decisions a focus on his economic stewardship and spending cuts as Lebanon’s next mayor. “Lebanon voters will be hiring brought on by state-mandated property tax caps, which a CEO for the city in November,” Thomas said in a press have impacted local governments across Indiana. “We release. “I invite them to compare my public service, com- spent only on munity involvement, work experience, and ideas with my what we needed, opponent’s, and to choose the most qualified candidate not what we to lead Lebanon into a prosperous and healthy future.” wanted,” he said, Horse Race Status: Leans Gentry. calling the efforts to keep spending Fort Wayne: Harper, Henry to debate in check during Fort Wayne’s mayoral candidates will square off his two terms in a televised debate one week before the Nov. 3 election the city’s “finest (Gong, Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). Democratic Mayor hour.” Neese, a Elkhart Mayor Dick Moore debates Repub- Tom Henry will meet Councilman Mitch Harper, R-4th, for former Indiana lican last night. (Elkhart Truth the only televised debate of the election at 7 p.m. Oct. 26 House mem- Photo) at the Walb Student Center at IPFW. Horse Race Sta- ber, offered a message of change. The city has managed tus: Likely Henry. through ups and downs, but “surviving with the status quo is not enough. We need a new start for Elkhart. We need Anderson: Libertarians off ballot an Elkhart that shouts, ‘We are open,’” Neese said, add- A Madison County judge ruled Tuesday that the ing that he has the “experience and energy to get the job local Libertarian Party could not be on the Nov. 3 ballot be- done.” On Gay civil rights. Neese suspects Indiana state cause it failed to follow state election rules (de la Bastide, lawmakers will take up the issue of granting civil rights Anderson Herald-Bulletin). Judge Stephen Clase said six protections to the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender Libertarian candidates failed to follow the state require- community. That’d be the ideal forum to address the issue ments to be placed on the ballot. The decision upheld ac- rather than a patchwork of municipal laws. But if state tion by the Madison County Election Board that denied the officials don’t, he’d favor adding language in Elkhart’s candidates from being placed on the Anderson municipal civil rights ordinance “to include sexual orientation and all ballot last month. Horse Race Status: Likely Smith. genders.” Neese said that doesn’t reflect a change in his views, though in a forum last April ahead of the GOP may- oral primary, he said such change would be unnecessary Richmond: Ingram says no to debates given protections at the state and federal level. Moore, Richmond Republicans have said no to an offer who introduced a measure in May to expand civil protec- from Democrats that the city’s mayoral candidates have tions to the LGBT community, said pursuing the matter five debates this fall (Richmond Palladium-Item). Brandon further hinges on getting the necessary support from the Searcy, campaign manager for Republican Kyle Ingram, nine-member Elkhart City Council. Amid an outcry of op- said Friday that time is a factor in trying to hold debates. position, he asked that the proposal be withdrawn last July “That’s quite a few debates to try to schedule and hold in and that the Human Relations Commission study the mat- the next six weeks,” Searcy said. “I think it’s a good idea. ter instead. Now he says if he doesn’t have five supporting I wish they had come to me in June. “We feel that our votes, he “may not send it back to the common council.” Roadmap to Revive Richmond really explains where Kyle stands on the issues,” he said. Republican city campaign chairman Peter Zaleski said Ingram is using social media Lebanon: Democrat slated and other forums to get his message out. Horse Race In our mayoral roundup in the Sept. 10 editon Status: Likely Ingram. of Howey Politics Indiana, it was reported that Lebanon Republican Matt Gentry is running unopposed. The Dec- Terre Haute: Bennett on ‘hot seat’ mocrats slated a candidate in June. Here is the Lebanon Terre Haute Tribune-Star writer Mark Bennett told Reporter’s June 18 account: Michele Thomas, a second- WFYI Thursday morning that Mayor Duke Bennett faces term Lebanon school board member, filed papers Tuesday a difficult reelection this November. He said the city’s as the Democratic Party candidate for mayor of Leba- stretched finances have dominated local politics and are non in the Nov. 3 general election. During Thomas’s two the top election issue. “He is certainly on the hot seat, elected terms on the Lebanon Community Schools Board there is no question about that,” Bennett said. “The mayor of Trustees, LCSC taxpayers experienced a 13 percent is under heavy, heavy scrutiny.” The Terre Haute Council drop in school taxes since 2009, and the school corpora- approved using $2 million of the city’s rainy day fund to tion garnered an A rating from the state. Her experience cover expenses. Horse Race Status: Leans Bennett. v Page 13

dynasty issue and his controversial brother. “I’m my own Fiorina stands out, but man” doesn’t cut it when his advisers, donors, and ap- proach are quintessentially Bush. Much of the GOP grassroots just doesn’t want ‘Reagan rumble’ another Bush. Maybe Jeb’s massive money edge and the enormous power wielded by Bush World (a web of con- reinforced opinions nections 70 years in the making) can grab the nomination anyway, but it’s far from a cinch. By LARRY SABATO Final point: I’m not a stubborn guy, but I am going University of Virginia to reiterate -- in the hope that we don’t repeat the mistake SIMI VALLEY, CA. – It was a debate with win- four years from now -- that this debate format is inad- ners (certainly Carly Fiorina) and losers (sorry, Scott equate. Eleven candidates are too many on a stage, and Walker). Mainly, though, the Reagan Rumble reinforced this crowd of politicians produced a herky-jerky debate the strengths and weaknesses that voters already associ- that couldn’t develop themes, skipped around too much on ate with each of the candidates. Already, millions tuned in topics, and cut off exchanges just when they were threat- mainly to cheer for their current choice. ening to prove fruitful. The moderators weren’t at fault, Few who are committed to will be the format was. dissuaded by anything they In July I urged in Magazine that the large saw. He didn’t add many group of candidates be divided evenly in a last-minute supporters, though; his song lottery (to encourage spontaneity), and that two back-to- sounded very familiar. Ben back debates be held in , perhaps an hour and Carson was his usual self -- a half per debate. Ask yourself whether that format might soft-spoken, thoughtful, often have worked a little better last night. Seven or eight can- unpolitical. His backers are de- didates produce a rambunctious but manageable seminar. lighted, no doubt, but Carson Eleven contenders create a chaotic, sputtering mob. didn’t spark a mass movement in his direction. The articulate and steely Fiorina showed why she should have been in the first debate. Fiorina surely will be Beware of snap judgments in subsequent ones. By contrast, Scott Walker did not impress, and he By GEOFFRY SKELLEY desperately needed to hit a couple of home runs. University of Virginia What of , who required a solid perfor- The last time experts tried to decide who “won” a mance almost as much as Walker? Bush debate, many mistakenly thought that blew his opportunities in the critical first Donald Trump had struggled. Maybe he half-hour, and shied away from confront- had in their eyes, but Republican poll re- ing Trump or making cogent arguments spondents thought otherwise. There’s no on other matters. But he got better. The question that the second Republican de- defense of his wife struck a chord with bate featured a large number of attacks viewers, and the last hour of exchanges, on Trump. Whether or not they actually when Bush really came alive, was his diminished him remains to be seen, but best. Trump didn’t shine brightly during the Yet Bush could not solve his second GOP confab. underlying dilemma, and if you listened Most of the evening wound up to the back-and-forth, you saw the future being a muddle. was through the prism of the past. From the strong, but he’s so damaged in the eyes first, the Bush camp underestimated the of conservative voters that it’s difficult to difficulty of separating Jeb from both the see him recovering. offered Page 14 dovish foreign policy views that might have held greater staunch conservatism on a number of issues, particularly sway before the rise of ISIS and the debate over the foreign policy, must have played well to future Republican nuclear deal, but now they seem totally out of step with primary and caucus voters. today’s Republican Party. Fiorina was the other candidate who appreciated “Winners” are difficult to demarcate because that she was speaking mainly to a television audience. of the crowded stage, but and Carly Fiorina were Regardless of substance, her answers probably topped the perhaps the strongest performers. charts in terms of erudition and detail. While her business Cruz particularly seemed to understand better record came under fire from Trump, she had smart re- than anyone else that a debate is televised. Most of his sponses to most questions and a solid grasp of details on responses were given with a full focus on the camera, a very wide range of issues. Of the three outsider candi- speaking into the homes of American conservatives and dates, she appeared to have the strongest performance in not so much to the small crowd at the Reagan Library. comparison to and Trump. Cruz is a former debate champion, and he routinely had If Trump’s lead in national polls erodes, it’s easy eloquent and firm answers when he got a chance to get a to imagine that the person who replaces him at the top in word in edgewise. Cruz’s appeal is not one that will easily some surveys could be either Carson or Fiorina. v translate to a broad, general election audience, but his

towns that lost population from 1970 to 2010, would be Syrian refugees in allocated Syrian refugees. All 28 places had at least 5,000 residents in 1970 and lost 500 people or more by 2010.” “You’re assuming,” I assumed, “that folks in those the Hoosier Holyland towns would welcome these refugees.” By MORTON MARCUS “Why not?” he asked. “You think Hoosiers would INDIANAPOLIS – My friend, lean Leon Lyons, reject them because they are mainly Muslims? I thought asked me one of the major questions of our times, “What Hoosier Hospitality was a reality. Religious people are as- are we doing about the Syrian refugees?” sets; religious radicals are liabilities.” “Are they our problem?” I “Is there housing for all of them in all these volleyed the question. “Sure,” he places?” I said. “Are the schools ready to take children asserted. “They are also our opportu- who speak … what? Arabic?” nity.” “How so?” I asked. “Haven’t you been thinking European coun- “Many are skilled and expe- tries smaller than Indiana should take thousands of rienced,” he answered. “Think how Syrians?” Leon asked. “Don’t you believe our neighbors they could solve some of Indiana’s already living in depressed cities and towns would be ea- problems. I did some noodling and ger to see homes renovated and repopulated? Aren’t there came up with a schedule for regaining jobs going unfilled that some of these refugees would fill? residents and workers….” “Diversity and development are goals of our state. “Hold on,” I stopped him Here’s an unprecedented opportunity to achieve what we from extracting a folded printout from say we want. Now’s the time, while others dither, for us to his pocket. “Aren’t immigration and refugee relief federal charter planes to Greece and Hungary, Jordan and Turkey responsibilities?” to open pathways to Indiana.” “Needn’t be,” Leon said. “Indiana recruits com- I replied, “I don’t see a host of Syrians fitting the panies and students (future workers) from abroad all the mold in Madison, hitting it off in Highland, or nesting in time. Talk to any economic developer and s/he will tell you New Albany or New Castle.” it’s a top priority. I’m talking about taking in less than two “What do you know of Syrians?” Leon asked. percent of Indiana’s population, only about 126,000 Syrian “Nothing really,” I admitted, “except I’ve heard they’re bet- refugees.” ter educated than most immigrants to America.” With this said, Leon successful pulled out his “What we do know,” he said, “is they are motivat- paperwork. “Now,” he said, “we’d top off the number of ed to make a better life for themselves and their families. Syrians going to any one city at 10,000. Those cities would They show great determination to reach places that offer be Anderson, East Chicago, Evansville, Gary, Hammond peace and prosperity. Aren’t those the people we want as and South Bend. There’d be 9,500 each going to Marion our neighbors?” and Terre Haute. Then it scales down to just 500 each to “Seems like a lot of energy,” I said, “to introduce Edinburgh, Logansport, Portland, Tell City and Winchester. into our contented Hoosier Holyland.” v “In all,” Leon continued, “28 Indiana cities and Page 15

have to craft a simpler, fairer, less intrusive tax policy that The fiscal crisis of promotes economic efficiency and is conducive to long- term growth. The people who have to do all these things are historic proportions politicians who, thus far, have been unwilling and unable By LEE to take these obvious challenges head on. The problem BLOOMINGTON – We face a fiscal crisis of historic is not with the system itself. Similar barriers have been proportions. Unless we can stabilize the debt and put the overcome repeatedly in the past, with reforms in Social country on a path of sustainable economic growth with Security in 1983, taxes in 1986, and repeatedly in budget prosperity evenly shared, lofty talk of American prosperity agreements. and world leadership is just hot air. Rather, the problem is that our leaders are di- A couple of months ago, vided between those who want to cut spending and those the Congressional Budget Office who want to boost taxes in order to expand government’s issued a sobering report on the role. Yet it’s impossible to solve our problems by finding U.S. economy’s long-term pros- new revenues or cutting spending alone. Without doing pects. Not to put too fine a point both, we face a weakened future. It is unreasonable and on it, we’re headed for the fiscal unacceptable to try to continue our present course of try- rocks. ing to muddle through. Federal spending accounts There’s a reason that you don’t hear much talk for about 20 percent of the na- about this in Washington. Americans themselves want it tion’s GDP, the budget analysts all – lower taxes without significant cuts in federal spend- note; if current trends continue, ing. But here’s the problem: Almost 60 percent of federal that will rise to fully 25 percent spending is accounted for by Social Security, Medicare by 2040. Revenues will not keep and defense and national security. Add the 7 percent of up; they’ll amount to only 19 percent of GDP. the budget that goes to interest on the national debt, and Here’s what the non-partisan CBO has to say: there’s little room for significant progress without painful “Mainly because of the aging of the population and rising and difficult legislative action. health care costs, the extended baseline projections show Political leaders should grasp these realities and revenues that fall well short of spending over the long act now. But they have not, so it’s up to Americans to term, producing a substantial imbalance in the federal pressure them to do so. True, nothing will happen without budget. As a result, budget deficits are projected to rise presidential leadership. All issues will have to be on the steadily and, by 2040, to raise federal debt held by the table, because the pain needs to be shared broadly. And public to a percentage of GDP seen at only one previous progress will require the adroit bipartisan participation of time in U.S. history, the final year of World War II and the congressional leaders. following year.” We face a fiscal crisis of historic propor- Instead, those who believe in a single path as- tions. sure us that we need only wait until the next election and Our presidential candidates can talk all they they’ll get the forces they need. This is a pipedream. The want about American prosperity and world leadership, but electorate is too evenly divided and too volatile to sustain without a firm fiscal base it’s just hot air. Unless we can complete control by one side over several elections. stabilize the debt and put the country on a path of sustain- So really, it’s up to the American people to de- able economic growth with prosperity evenly shared, we’ll mand action. We have to create the political will that have no firm economic base for all those lofty goals to rest drives our leaders to deal with these difficult economic upon. problems, that leads them to This means tackling tackle entitlements, health a host of complex problems. costs, investing in the future, We have to get long-term and tax reform. The question debt under control. We have is whether our political leaders to preserve Social Security yet are up to the task before our find a solution to rising entitle- economy runs out of time. v ment spending, which will be a key driver of federal spending Lee Hamilton is director of for decades to come. We have the Center on Congress at to deal with health-care costs, Indiana University. He was which pose the same challenge. a member of the U.S. House We have to invest in skills, of Representatives for 34 education, and infrastructure years. without breaking the bank. We Page 16

crease the amount of funding. But that won’t happen until Region investments in after the Nov. 3 municipal election, thus taking a poten- tially volatile issue out of the campaign. An added incentive for Highland could be a young people lacking $300,000 federal grant that Visclosky announced this By RICH JAMES week. The grant will be used to plan proposed stations MERRILLVILLE – Motorola announced this week along the new route. Visclosky said the stations will “pro- that it was moving its headquarters from Schaumburg, Ill., vide opportunities for neighborhoods to grow along the to downtown Chicago. A compa- West Lake Corridor and the region to flourish.” ny executive explained that the Visclosky added, “I am convinced the extension downtown location would be a of the South Shore Railroad will spread the economic vital- great attraction to lure the best ity of the Chicagoland area into Northwest Indiana and al- and brightest of young people to low our region to become the next great economic engine the company. of the state of Indiana.” That move also could play Ty Warner, the executive director of the North- a role for young professionals western Indiana Regional Planning Commission, said the living in Northwest Indiana. U.S. grant “validates the potential and proof of concept in forg- Rep. Peter Visclosky has been ing this kind of development along transit lines. This kind saying – and said it again this of thinking is where the future of northwestern Indiana week – that Northwest Indiana lies.” v doesn’t make investments to keep its young people here. Rich James has been writing about state and local That is a primary reason why Visclosky has been working government and politics for more than 30 years. He tirelessly for several years to garner the local support and is a columnist for The Times of Northwest Indiana. financial commitment for the nine-mile expansion of the South Shore Railroad to Dyer. Visclosky said expanding the South Shore is “not just to get people to jobs, but to bring jobs to Northwest Indiana.” The congress- man often has explained that the tremendous financial growth on the side of the greater Chicago area is a direct result of that state’s tremendous commuter rail system. Visclosky made his com- ments this week while again urging the Highland Town Council to make a full commitment to the South Shore project. Although Highland would be one of the communities to reap the most gain from commuter rail expan- sion, the town has been reluctant to make a full commitment. While Visclosky has asked all Lake County municipalities to commit 34 percent of their county economic development income tax over 30 years, Highland has yet to come close. The Highland council last year approved committing 20 percent of its tax money, but for just two years. Council President Mark Herak vowed this week that Highland would commit to 30 years and perhaps in- Page 17

Nathan Gonzalez, Roll Call: For some members telegraphing back: “You supply the photos. I’ll supply the of Congress with young families, getting elected is the war.” And war we had. Now comes easy part; deciding whether to move your family to Wash- practicing Rainbow Journalism, a modern variant of yellow ington is more difficult. Members of the Indiana delegation journalism. Its publisher seeks to supply a over have been wrestling with the decision for decades, in a gay rights by convening a meeting of community leaders state where residency consistently pops up as a campaign on Sept. 22 to rehearse the grievances, alleged only, that issue. The current Hoosier State delegation isn’t any differ- the fight over the Religious Freedom Restoration Act last ent. Even though multiple members have young families, spring hurt Indiana’s economy. Record employment aside, they have made different residency decisions. Indiana, she alleges, is suffering economically. The Star’s And two of them, Reps. Marlin Stutzman and new business model, despite working under pro- Todd Young, are set to face off in a competi- tection of the First Amendment, is what is suffer- tive Republican Senate primary next year. “I ing. Circulation is below 100,000, although online go to Washington, D.C., to work and come figures are not readily available, and the paper is home at every opportunity,” said Young, the selling assets, shedding staff and doing its editing father of four children younger than 10 who remotely. My humble prediction: If the Star wants live in his district. “In the House, you can predictably to pick a fight with the Indiana church, it will get a spend roughly four of seven days back home with fam- fight. Maybe even war.v ily.” “It helps me stay closely in touch with the people I represent, it informs my decisions, and it has made me a Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post: Donald much more effective U.S. Representative,” Young added. Trump finally met his match in Carly Fiorina. In a smash- Stutzman made a different calculation. “We looked at ing performance that will earn her poll points, campaign several different options,” Stutzman explained. “The family donations and praise from Republicans, she went after could stay in Indiana all the time or find a way to keep Trump with surgical precision in the second GOP debate. the family together as much as possible.” The Stutzmans’ She jabbed him for his casino bankruptcies. Pivoting off a decision to homeschool their two boys gives them flex- Jeb Bush answer, she recalled Trump’s derogatory remark ibility to split time between their 3rd District farm and the about her face: “Women all over this country heard very house they purchased in Alexandria, Va., in the Washing- clearly what Mr. Trump said.” With sly put downs (“You ton suburbs, where they also co-own a boutique bridal know, I think Mr. Trump is a wonderful entertainer. He’s shop with the congressman’s sister-in-law. “There’s not a been terrific at that business”) and showing her superior perfect answer,” Stutzman added. While decisions involving knowledge of foreign policy, she gave Republicans a more spouses and young children are typically personal, there is viable and sophisticated outsider. She interjected some hu- underlying tension, based in part on how Stutzman’s pre- manity in recalling her experience of losing a daughter to decessor left office and how residency has been used as a addiction. Her passionate denunciation of Planned Parent- campaign issue in Indiana races for more than a decade. hood was a standout moment as was her closing state- According to multiple GOP sources, Stutzman cited for- ment, a crisply delivered ode to human potential. Her only mer Republican Rep. Mark Souder’s extramarital affair as discernible slip was a huffy dig at New Jersey Gov. Chris part of his rationale to bring his family to the D.C. area. Christie for criticizing Fiorina and Trump for arguing about Stutzman ran for retiring Democrat ’s Senate their respective records. (Christie later hit back when he seat and took issue in the GOP primary with former Sen. told her firmly not to interrupt him.) Trump was repeat- Dan Coats’ residency. Coats was an easy target since he edly on defense, coming up short in face-offs against hadn’t spent a lot of time in Indiana since he left office Fiorina and regurgitating lines (get great people!) that in 1999, previously talked about making already seem stale. In a truly egregious moment, Trump home, and had to register to vote in Indiana before an- brought up the canard that vaccinations cause autism. nouncing his candidacy. But multiple Republicans pointed Carson gently corrected him, but the moment reminded out that Stutzman bought a home in Virginia in 2011 after the audience what a crank Trump really is. If not undone attacking Coats on residency in the 2010 election. v entirely, he lost luster in the debate if only because he was a “loser” in so many one-on-one moments. By the end he Curt Smith, Forefront: As an understudy of the seemed tired, even low-energy, one might say. But it was late, great Dr. Richard Gray, my mentor at the IU School not only Fiorina who scored big. Christie was also strong of Journalism in the late 1970s, I learned to hate “yel- throughout, and quite moving when relating 9/11 when low journalism.” That was the term applied to the scare he could not reach his wife, who worked near the World tactics, lurid headlines and public pandering raised to an Trade Center, for more than five hours. He interjected with art form by William Randolph Hearst as he built a newspa- effective pleas to focus on working Americans, reminding per empire. Its pinnacle was his retort to a photographer voters of his record on drug rehabilitation and on the need in the Philippines on the eve of the Spanish-American War for a strong military response after 9/11. He was loose and of 1898. When challenged, he chastised his employee by relaxed, willing to push back. v Page 18

with it we’re not going to make much in their labs,” added Toles. Indiana lacks headway.” However, John Hill, Pence’s deputy chief of staff for public safety A to F scores addiction care and task force co-chairman, said he only plans to initially recommend the in January INDIANAPOLIS - Indiana INDIANAPOLIS - Indiana governor seek greater flexibility to use existing federal health funds for drug schools will receive their A-to-F ac- sorely lacks the treatment infrastruc- countability grades in January under ture and trained personnel needed to treatment, and to encourage state agencies to promote more widespread a revised schedule, the State Board of wean hundreds of thousands of Hoo- Education learned Wednesday (Kelly, siers off their drug addictions and re- use of nalaxone, an opiod overdose reversal drug. Hendricks County Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). The mediate their often underlying mental panel also approved a resolution to health problems (Carden, NWI Times). Sheriff Brett Clark admitted, “You can’t arrest your way out of this problem,” use the current formula in state rules That’s the blunt message Dr. Andy for calculating the grades even though Chambers, of Indianapolis’ Midtown least of all because the county must provide health care to jail inmates. there has been a question about Community Mental Health and Addic- whether those emergency rules the tion Clinic, delivered Wednesday at Meth labs to board adopted had expired. Superin- the first meeting of Gov. Mike Pence’s tendent of Public Instruction Glenda Task Force on Drug Enforcement, surpass 2014 Ritz abstained on the resolution and Treatment and Prevention. Chambers INDIANAPOLIS - Indiana law fellow Democrat Gordon Hendry asked told the panel of state officials, health enforcement agencies say they’re on why. “Because of the confusing nature professionals and law track to take down more of the entire piece with a resolution enforcement that Indiana meth labs this year than they enacting a rule that has expired,” repeatedly has failed to did last year (Indiana Public she said. “Probably more procedural invest in drug treatment Media). The Hoosier State than anything else.” Due to a delay in and mental health care, routinely has one of the high- getting ISTEP+ scores back from this leaving too few clinics est numbers of the meth lab spring, the Indiana Department of Ed- spread across the state seizures in the country. While ucation had originally thought schools and hardly any practitioners to meet other states are witnessing a decrease might not receive their accountability Hoosier needs. For example, he said in meth lab busts, Indiana is on pace grades until March or April. Indiana University, the sole facility to once again be in the top five states training psychiatrists, only graduates for meth lab seizures in 2015. “Many Duncan says U.S. about six a year and just one typically times the user is addicted after the specializes in addiction. Moreover, first or second use, and then when education behind he noted, half the state’s practic- you have a drug where you’re not de- WEST LAFAYETTE - In many ing psychiatrists are within 10 years pended upon on a dealer or a particu- ways, the American education sys- of retirement. “Even if we had more lar plant or country, for its importation tem has fallen behind other civilized money going to treatment, there’s no and you can make it locally here just countries, U.S. Secretary of Education place for people to go for treatment,” by buying a few chemicals and precur- Arne Duncan said Wednesday during Chambers said. “We don’t have the sors, it makes it very difficult,” said In- a trip to Purdue University (Lafayette workforce, and we don’t have the diana State Police Sgt. Michael Toles, Journal & Courier). Duncan, who was infrastructure.” Chambers urged the who is the North Zone Supervisor of appointed to the role in 2009, fielded panel to recommend to the Republican the Meth Suppression Section. Toles questions at Loeb Playhouse as part governor major investments toward says the ISP is also having trouble of Purdue Convocation’s 2015 Presi- long-term solutions, rather than a keeping one of the key ingredients in dential Lecture Series. Duncan said short-term fix that satisfies the needs methamphetamine out of the hands the Department of Education’s most of a four-year election cycle but does of those using it to make the drug. important investment since he took of- little to address addiction in Indiana. Indiana and the federal government fice was in early childhood education, State Sen. , D-LaPorte, a have tough restrictions on how much a service the U.S. lacks compared to former county sheriff and task force pseudoephedrine one person can buy other countries. “That we allow our member, agreed that more money, at a time. But other states have gone babies to start kindergarten a year or training and facilities are needed. “If further, by either scheduling the drug a year and a half behind is just crazy we’re ever going to have any hopes of or making it a controlled substance. to me,” he said. “In other countries, addressing this issue, of getting a grip “States where they’ve put restrictions they don’t do this. In other countries, on it and properly addressing it, we’re on, as far as maybe having it be a it’s universal access. The fact that we going to have to look for money,” controlled substance or scheduled, don’t value early childhood education Arnold said. “If we can’t come up they have seen a significant decrease is heartbreaking.”