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Mourdock Impact on Pence, Romney

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Mourdock Impact on Pence, Romney V18, N16 Thursday, Nov. 15, 2012 Mourdock impact on Pence, Romney engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about Pence lost 18% of female support the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Repub- lican nominee has pulled within one point of the president between September Howey/DePauw among women who are likely voters, 48%-49%, and leads poll and Election Day; Romney by eight points among men. The battle for women, which was apparent in the speakers spotlighted at both political went from surge Oct. 15 to defeat conventions this summer, is likely to help define messages the candidates deliver at the presidential debate Tuesday By BRIAN A. HOWEY night and in the TV ads they air during the final 21 days of INDIANAPOLIS – On Oct. 15 a USA Today poll con- the campaign.” ducted by Gallup made waves when the story line was that And USA Today made this fateful observation: “As Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney had made a group, women tend to start paying attention to election significant gains among women voters. contests later and remain more open to persuasion by the Romney had darted up to a 4% lead over President candidates and their ads.” Obama, and the USA Today report said, “He has growing Three weeks later, Obama had won a second term, enthusiasm among women to thank. As the presidential carrying all the swing states save North Carolina. He did campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters so, as ABC News described on Nov. 6, with a “coalition of in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more Continued on page 3 Walorski barely hangs on By JACK COLWELL SOUTH BEND – Jackie Walorski, the Republican elected to Congress in Indiana’s 2nd District, would have lost if she had been running in the ‘‘We should not hold the middle same 2nd in which she fell just short two years ago. class hostage while we debate tax The new district bound- cuts for the wealthy. More voters aries were drawn in Republican- controlled redistricting after the agreed with me on this issue than 2010 Census. The new 2nd was referred to by the GOP map mak- voted for me.” ers as “Jackie’s district.” And it was. - President Obama More narrowly so than the Repub- lican strategists expected. But with HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012 enough added Republican strength to Adding all of Elkhart County to stave off defeat this time. the district had a major effect. Only Let it be clear that redistrict- a part of the county, including Demo- ing is used by both parties for political cratic precincts in the city of Elkhart, advantage. The old 2nd, drawn in a had been in the district. So, in 2010, www.HoweyPolitics.com Democratic-controlled redistricting Donnelly lost to Walorski there by only after the 2000 Census, was de- 2,725 votes. This time, with all of the signed for election of a Democrat to county in the district, Walorski won Howey Politics Congress, even Indiana though it failed to is a non-partisan newsletter do so initially, with based in Indianapolis and Republican Chris Nashville, Ind. It was founded Chocola winning. (The Democratic in 1994 in Fort Wayne. strategists even It is published by drew Chocola’s WWWHowey Media, LLC home out of the district, but he ran Brian A. Howey, Publisher anyway because a congressional can- Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington didate needs only Jack E. Howey, editor to live in the state, not the district.) Subscriptions Wal- orski defeated $350 annually HPI Weekly Democrat Brendan $550 annually HPI Weekly and Mullen by 3,830 HPI Daily Wire. votes. Key factors in her victory were there by 12,269. 'Call Adrian France the inclusion in the new district of the That erased close to two- 812.455.4070 or email entire Republican strength of Elkhart thirds of the margin Mullen picked up, County and the removal of the most 21,438 plurality, in St. Joseph County, [email protected] Democratic parts of LaPorte County. largest county in the district but not Percentages were: Walorski, as strongly Democratic as some of the Contact HPI 49.0, Mullen, 47.6. The remaining 3.4 other nine counties in the district are Howey Politics Indiana percent of the vote went to the Liber- Republican. tarian candidate. Then there’s LaPorte Coun- www.howeypolitics.com Walorski had lost by only ty. It was the best county for Donnelly [email protected] 2,538 votes in 2010 to Democrat in percentage of vote in 2010. Joe Donnelly, who chose wisely as it The heavily Democratic Michi- 'Howey’s Cabin: 812.988.6520 turned out to run for the U.S. Sen- gan City area of the county was put 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 ate rather than for re-election to the in the 1st District, where Republican House in the much more Republican- strategists pushed as many Democrats 'Washington: 703.248.0909 flavored 2nd District. as possible. They knew there was no 'Business Office:812.455.4070 Since Mullen, a West Point chance anyway to defeat Democratic graduate and Iraq War veteran who Congressman Pete Visclosky in the 1st © 2012, Howey Politics Indiana. started with zilch name recognition, - not with all the Lake County Demo- All rights reserved. Photocopy- came so close, it could be argued that crats sure to support him to victory in Donnelly would have won re-election any realignment. ing, Internet forwarding, fax- in the new 2nd. Possibly so. But, Mullen won by just over ing or reproducing in any form, anyway, a six-year term in the more 2,000 in the part of LaPorte County whole or part, is a violation of prestigious Senate is worth a lot more left in the 2nd. The remainder of the federal law without permission than another two years in the chaotic county carved into the 1st, provided a from the publisher. v House. Democratic plurality of 7,275 votes for HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012 Visclosky. Whip John Brademas, who represented the South Bend- Also, a significant part of Kosciusko County, one of based district for 22 years, lost twice before winning his the most Republican counties in the state, was added to first of 11 terms. the 2nd. That alone provided a plurality of 4,185 votes for But the district still will be shaped in 2014 as it Walorski, more than her district winning margin. was this time, with a lot of Republican flavor. And Mullen The fact that Mullen lost by only 1.4 percentage presumably would not in ’14 have the significant help he points, despite all the efforts to draw a safe Republican dis- received unintentionally from Richard Mourdock, the Re- trict, is expected to lead to another bid by Mullen, another publican nominee for the Senate, who self-destructed with Mullen vs. Walorski contest in 2014. his own words. More than district lines will always come Mullen backers note that the district has a pattern into play. of congressional nominees losing a race before finally win- v ning election to Congress. Indeed, Walorski, Donnelly and Chocola all lost a race before being elected to Congress in Colwell has covered Indiana politics over five de- the district. Going farther back, former House Democratic cades for the South Bend Tribune. ard Mourdock uttered his now infamous “God intends” rape Mourdock, from page 1 remarks at the New Albany debate with Democrat Joe Don- nelly and Libertarian Andy Horning. women and nonwhites. Obama has always performed bet- That remark propelled a dead heat Senate race ter with women than with men, and with nonwhites than into a 6% Donnelly victory. In the September Howey/ with whites. But tonight those numbers were so much in DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll, Hoosier females were his favor that they built Obama a powerful firewall against supporting Donnelly 41-35%. Republican pollster Christine a dropoff in support from white men and independent vot- Matthews noted that, “Women are less likely than men, in ers.” fact, to say the word ‘extreme’ applies to Richard Mour- “If white women had stayed in Romney’s camp, dock. Women rate him less favorably, but no more unfavor- those swing states – Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New ably than men.” Hampshire – might have moved into his column,” ABC But on Election Day in Indiana, the Associated reported. “Instead, Obama led among At left is the USA women by 12 points, Today/Gallup poll nearly identical to his on Oct. 15, with the lead among women newspaper reporting four years ago.” that Mitt Romney What hap- was getting a surge pened between Oct. of female support. 15 and Nov. 6 that The graphic at the changed the surge bottom shows how of female support to President Obama Romney to the game and Romney did changing hand Presi- on Election Day in dent Obama displayed swing states as well on Election Day? as Indiana, New On Oct. 23, York, Massachu- Indiana Republican setts, New Jersey Senate nominee Rich- and Connecticut. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 4 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012 Press exit polling showed that Donnelly sources tell HPI. It wasn’t until those led Mourdock among women 52-42%. two counties reported that the Pence In her post-election analysis, campaign realized he had won, but by Matthews explained: “What was really a much closer margin than anyone had notable is that in our September poll, imagined.
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