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Home , John Brademas, Justin Moed, Kreg Battles, Mike Pence, Scott Pelath

V18, N16 Thursday, Nov. 15, 2012 Mourdock impact on Pence, Romney

engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about Pence lost 18% of female support the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Repub- lican nominee has pulled within one point of the president between September Howey/DePauw among women who are likely voters, 48%-49%, and leads poll and Election Day; Romney by eight points among men. The battle for women, which was apparent in the speakers spotlighted at both political went from surge Oct. 15 to defeat conventions this summer, is likely to help define messages the candidates deliver at the presidential debate Tuesday By BRIAN A. HOWEY night and in the TV ads they air during the final 21 days of – On Oct. 15 a USA Today poll con- the campaign.” ducted by Gallup made waves when the story line was that And USA Today made this fateful observation: “As Republican presidential nominee had made a group, women tend to start paying attention to election significant gains among women voters. contests later and remain more open to persuasion by the Romney had darted up to a 4% lead over President candidates and their ads.” Obama, and the USA Today report said, “He has growing Three weeks later, Obama had won a second term, enthusiasm among women to thank. As the presidential carrying all the swing states save North Carolina. He did campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters so, as ABC News described on Nov. 6, with a “coalition of in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more Continued on page 3

Walorski barely hangs on

By JACK COLWELL SOUTH BEND – , the Republican elected to Congress in ’s 2nd District, would have lost if she had been running in the ‘‘We should not hold the middle same 2nd in which she fell just short two years ago. class hostage while we debate tax The new district bound- cuts for the wealthy. More voters aries were drawn in Republican- controlled redistricting after the agreed with me on this issue than 2010 Census. The new 2nd was referred to by the GOP map mak- voted for me.” ers as “Jackie’s district.” And it was. - President Obama More narrowly so than the Repub- lican strategists expected. But with HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012

enough added Republican strength to Adding all of Elkhart County to stave off defeat this time. the district had a major effect. Only Let it be clear that redistrict- a part of the county, including Demo- ing is used by both parties for political cratic precincts in the city of Elkhart, advantage. The old 2nd, drawn in a had been in the district. So, in 2010, www.HoweyPolitics.com Democratic-controlled redistricting Donnelly lost to Walorski there by only after the 2000 Census, was de- 2,725 votes. This time, with all of the signed for election of a Democrat to county in the district, Walorski won Howey Politics Congress, even Indiana though it failed to is a non-partisan newsletter do so initially, with based in Indianapolis and Republican Chris Nashville, Ind. It was founded Chocola winning. (The Democratic in 1994 in Fort Wayne. strategists even It is published by drew Chocola’s WWWHowey Media, LLC home out of the district, but he ran Brian A. Howey, Publisher anyway because a congressional can- Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington didate needs only Jack E. Howey, editor to live in the state, not the district.) Subscriptions Wal- orski defeated $350 annually HPI Weekly Democrat Brendan $550 annually HPI Weekly and Mullen by 3,830 HPI Daily Wire. votes. Key factors in her victory were there by 12,269. 'Call Adrian France the inclusion in the new district of the That erased close to two- 812.455.4070 or email entire Republican strength of Elkhart thirds of the margin Mullen picked up, County and the removal of the most 21,438 plurality, in St. Joseph County, [email protected] Democratic parts of LaPorte County. largest county in the district but not Percentages were: Walorski, as strongly Democratic as some of the Contact HPI 49.0, Mullen, 47.6. The remaining 3.4 other nine counties in the district are Howey Politics Indiana percent of the vote went to the Liber- Republican. tarian candidate. Then there’s LaPorte Coun- www.howeypolitics.com Walorski had lost by only ty. It was the best county for Donnelly [email protected] 2,538 votes in 2010 to Democrat in percentage of vote in 2010. , who chose wisely as it The heavily Democratic Michi- 'Howey’s Cabin: 812.988.6520 turned out to run for the U.S. Sen- gan City area of the county was put 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 ate rather than for re-election to the in the 1st District, where Republican House in the much more Republican- strategists pushed as many Democrats 'Washington: 703.248.0909 flavored 2nd District. as possible. They knew there was no 'Business Office:812.455.4070 Since Mullen, a West Point chance anyway to defeat Democratic graduate and veteran who Congressman in the 1st © 2012, Howey Politics Indiana. started with zilch name recognition, - not with all the Lake County Demo- All rights reserved. Photocopy- came so close, it could be argued that crats sure to support him to victory in Donnelly would have won re-election any realignment. ing, Internet forwarding, fax- in the new 2nd. Possibly so. But, Mullen won by just over ing or reproducing in any form, anyway, a six-year term in the more 2,000 in the part of LaPorte County whole or part, is a violation of prestigious Senate is worth a lot more left in the 2nd. The remainder of the federal law without permission than another two years in the chaotic county carved into the 1st, provided a from the publisher. v House. Democratic plurality of 7,275 votes for HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012

Visclosky. Whip , who represented the South Bend- Also, a significant part of Kosciusko County, one of based district for 22 years, lost twice before winning his the most Republican counties in the state, was added to first of 11 terms. the 2nd. That alone provided a plurality of 4,185 votes for But the district still will be shaped in 2014 as it Walorski, more than her district winning margin. was this time, with a lot of Republican flavor. And Mullen The fact that Mullen lost by only 1.4 percentage presumably would not in ’14 have the significant help he points, despite all the efforts to draw a safe Republican dis- received unintentionally from , the Re- trict, is expected to lead to another bid by Mullen, another publican nominee for the Senate, who self-destructed with Mullen vs. Walorski contest in 2014. his own words. More than district lines will always come Mullen backers note that the district has a pattern into play. of congressional nominees losing a race before finally win- v ning election to Congress. Indeed, Walorski, Donnelly and Chocola all lost a race before being elected to Congress in Colwell has covered Indiana politics over five de- the district. Going farther back, former House Democratic cades for the South Bend Tribune.

ard Mourdock uttered his now infamous “God intends” rape Mourdock, from page 1 remarks at the New Albany debate with Democrat Joe Don- nelly and Libertarian Andy Horning. women and nonwhites. Obama has always performed bet- That remark propelled a dead heat Senate race ter with women than with men, and with nonwhites than into a 6% Donnelly victory. In the September Howey/ with whites. But tonight those numbers were so much in DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll, females were his favor that they built Obama a powerful firewall against supporting Donnelly 41-35%. Republican pollster Christine a dropoff in support from white men and independent vot- Matthews noted that, “Women are less likely than men, in ers.” fact, to say the word ‘extreme’ applies to Richard Mour- “If white women had stayed in Romney’s camp, dock. Women rate him less favorably, but no more unfavor- those swing states – , Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New ably than men.” Hampshire – might have moved into his column,” ABC But on Election Day in Indiana, the Associated reported. “Instead, Obama led among At left is the USA women by 12 points, Today/Gallup poll nearly identical to his on Oct. 15, with the lead among women newspaper reporting four years ago.” that Mitt Romney What hap- was getting a surge pened between Oct. of female support. 15 and Nov. 6 that The graphic at the changed the surge bottom shows how of female support to President Obama Romney to the game and Romney did changing hand Presi- on Election Day in dent Obama displayed swing states as well on Election Day? as Indiana, New On Oct. 23, York, Massachu- Indiana Republican setts, New Jersey Senate nominee Rich- and Connecticut. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 4 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012

Press exit polling showed that Donnelly sources tell HPI. It wasn’t until those led Mourdock among women 52-42%. two counties reported that the Pence In her post-election analysis, campaign realized he had won, but by Matthews explained: “What was really a much closer margin than anyone had notable is that in our September poll, imagined. Republican gubernatorial candidate Had Gregg stopped his Sandborn was leading women 46%- TV ad schtick a couple of weeks ear- 33% and he basically never improved lier and had gone to his contrast ads upon that.” with Pence sooner, the Democrat might The significance of the Sep- have pulled off the most shocking upset tember figure in Indiana is that as a since Frank O’Bannon defeated Stephen congressman, Pence had initiated the Goldsmith in 1996. A common belief in defunding move- political circles these days is that if the ment, which was eventually picked up campaign had gone on another week, in the , with Gregg might have done it. Gov. signing the legisla- In the hours after Mourdock’s de- tion into law. Gregg pointed that out bate rape remark, Pence called for him in his standard stump speech, then to apologize, then backed off. In the brought the issue up in his October TV week before the election, Pence came ads when he began tying Pence to the to Mourdock’s defense, lauding him at and Mourdock. the Indiana Republican fall dinner, on Matthews noted the Pence gen- the campaign trail in places like Dills- der erosion: “In our October poll he was boro (caught by WTHR-TV). On election tied with John Gregg among women at eve, when a WAVE-TV reporter in Jeffer- 42%.” The October Howey/DePauw poll sonville asked Pence about Mourdock, was conducted Oct. 28-30, beginning press secretary Christy Denault cut the five days after the Mourdock remark, interview off and led Pence into the capturing the ensuing media and politi- darkness. cal firestorm. In exit polling, Pence actually lost Matthews also observed of the female vote to Gregg by a narrow her Bellwether Barometer social media margin, according to the Associated project, “In our final social media analy- Press. Matthews observed, “I wasn’t sis, the words ‘rape, pregnancy, and expecting him to lose women by the ’ were prominent for Mourdock, 47%-52% he did and I think there was but unfortunately for Mike Pence, they definitely a ‘Mourdock’ impact on his also factored into his image and the race.” Essentially, Pence dropped from perception that he was standing behind a 13% lead among women in the Sept. Mourdock.” 22-25 Howey/DePauw poll to a 5% defi- cit on Election Day – an 18% hemor- Mourdock alters gubernatorial race rhage. That Pence defeated Democrat John Gregg 49.8 to That kind of data suggests a significant negative 46.3% – the closest Indiana gubernatorial race since 1960 Mourdock impact on the GOP ticket in Indiana. – also fits in with the circumstantial evidence that Mour- dock’s rape remark altered not only his Senate race, but A circumstantial Romney impact the gubernatorial race, possibly the Indiana superintendent A much more circumstantial case can be made that of public instruction, and, perhaps, even the presidential Mourdock may have impacted the Obama/Romney presi- race. In the 2nd CD, Republican Jackie Walorski won a dential race, given that the president swept almost all the razor-thin victory of Democrat Brendan Mullen (see Jack swing states and those late-deciding female voters USA Colwell column on pages 1-3). Today described ended up giving Obama a significant edge. The Pence campaign endured a nerve-rattling Political analysts urged restraint when making the election night with Gregg within a few percentage points Mourdock connection to Romney’s loss. through mid-evening, as the campaign awaited late returns HPI columnist Chris Sautter, a Washington, D.C.- from and Lake counties, informed and reliable based Democratic consultant, cautioned about reading too HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 5 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012

much into the Mourdock im- tabs.” pact on the presidential race. Skelley continued, “But the “It would take an enormous Mourdock-related issues clearly and in my view unwarranted could only help the Obama leap to conclude that Mour- campaign if they did have an dock’s remarks altered the effect so it’s no wonder that election,” Sautter said. “First they were running ads tying of all, Romney’s movement Romney to Mourdock. Remem- after the first debate allowed ber, in Virginia we had just had him to retrieve support he had this huge issue at the state level lost after the two conventions over transvaginal ultrasounds and in the wake of the release and abortion, which served as of the ‘47%’ tape – but no a major Democratic attack in more. His movement wasn’t presidential and Senate ads. In changing the basic dynamics the end, Obama had a 7-point of the election.” edge among women over men Sautter continued, in Virginia (versus 10 nation- “Secondly, the problem Rom- ally) so maybe that helped. But ney had with women pre- as a counterpoint, Colorado’s dated the Mourdock and Aiken exit polling didn’t really show remarks. Mourdock’s remarks any gender gap (Obama won provided fresh material, to be 51% of both men and women sure, but the argument was there). But Ohio’s 10 point gap hardly new. In fact, there are between men and women (55- a multitude of factors that 45 Obama support) matched contributed to the outcome, the national outcome, so that especially message. Obama may be the place where run- was clearly viewed as the can- ning ads connecting Romney didate most likely to fight for to Mourdock might have been the middle class in an election useful.” in which that ended up being The Romney TV ad for Mourdock that began running the day more important than even who before Mourdock’s “debate rape” blunder in New Albany. In Obama’s swing could fix the economy. Also, the lower photo, Romney and Mourdock campaign in Evans- state sweep Obama coalition voters turned ville last summer. While taking Sautter’s out in equal or greater num- advice and that of “Apocalypse bers than 2008 while Romney Now” movie character “Chef” (“never get out of the boat, voters didn’t.” never get out of the boat”), when surveying the swing “Mourdock’s remarks clearly made waves in the state results and contrasting them to the Gallup swing state campaign,” Sautter concluded. “But I wouldn’t go over- female surge in mid-October, Obama carried 58% of the board with the theory.” female vote in New Hampshire, 55% in Ohio, 54% in Vir- Geoffrey Skelley, a researcher for Prof. Larry Sa- ginia, 53% in Florida, 56% in Pennsylvania, 59% in Iowa, bato’s “Crystal Ball” at the University of Virginia’s Center 57% in Wisconsin and 51% in Colorado. Those were all on Politics, agreed that it will be difficult to determine the states that the Romney campaign believed they could win Mourdock impact nationally. through mid-evening on Election Day, in part with invigo- “I could see it having had an impact in Indiana but rated female support. They were stunned when they didn’t. I think we always expected Obama to win women in most The other important thing to note is that Gallup’s places – the question was just by how much,” Skelley told polling rated poorly in an analysis by the Times HPI. “I don’t recall noticing a significant shift in female (see page 7). support for the president in the aftermath of Mourdock’s The Obama campaign used the Mourdock “rape comments. Unfortunately, I don’t think I can say anything intends” remark in radio ads in Virginia and Colorado in the definitive, also because the polling was so all over the place final days of the campaign, and he won both states. (from too pro-Romney to too pro-Obama) compared to the The day before Mourdock’s rape remark, his cam- final results in some states that it’s hard to judge the cross- paign began airing an endorsement ad featuring Romney. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 6 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012

In the hours after the Wednesday morning. Ms. Mourdock remark, Romney Psaki called it ‘perplex- denounced it, saying, “I ing’ that Mr. Romney had disagree with his views on not demanded that his rape and incest, but I still ad be taken off televi- support him.” sion. He supports allow- As David Horsey ing abortion in the case of the of rape, incest and when reported on Oct. 26: “In an the health of the mother exercise that is becoming is at risk. Republicans in repetitive this year, slightly Washington hoped that more sane Republicans the anti-abortion tilt of like Mitt Romney and John Indiana would insulate McCain were forced to dis- Mr. Mourdock from much associate themselves from political damage. But the the comments of one of controversy fed into the their political compatriots – argument that Mr. Don- not that Romney put much nelly and other Demo- distance between himself crats have been pressing and Mourdock. Romney is maintaining his vigorous support ever since Mr. Mourdock’s stunning victory over Mr. Lugar.” of Mourdock, since keeping the Indiana seat in GOP hands Democrats picked up Senate seats in Indiana, is key to a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate. Besides, Maine and Massachusetts and expanded majority control if he were to forsake Mourdock because the man does not from 53-47 to 55-45. favor an abortion exemption for women impregnated by As the 2012 election retreats into the nation’s rapists, he would also have to cut ties to as many as 11 rearview mirror, perhaps it was Republican Karen Hughes, other Republican Senate candidates who hold the same former advisor to President George W. Bush, who stated a position.” fitting coda to the Mourdock campaign disaster that burned Republicans far and wide. Mourdock permeated the national stage “If another Republican man says anything about There is no question that the Mourdock blunder rape other than it is a horrific, violent crime, I want to per- permeated the national stage. sonally cut out his tongue,” Hughes said. “The college-age When Romney campaigned in Ohio in the days daughters of many of my friends voted for Obama because following the Mourdock remark, he was peppered with they were completely turned off by Neanderthal comments questions about it and brushed them off, with network TV like the suggestion of ‘legitimate rape.’” v cameras and coverage evident. In both the Romney and Pence cases, it was dangerous for candidates to be seen fleeing or ignoring the controversy of the day. The images would make Michael Deaver cringe. Romney cites Obama ‘gifts’ for loss Charlie Cook writes in the National Journal, “The GOP brand has been so damaged that it even affects Re- BOSTON - Mitt Romney, in some of his first report- publicans who don’t have self-destructive tendencies. When ed remarks since his concession speech, claimed Wednes- Todd Akin of Missouri and Richard Mourdock of Indiana put day he lost the presidential election because President grenades in their mouths and pulled the pins, the ensuing Obama provided “gifts” to key groups like black, Hispanic explosions and shrapnel hurt the party and other candi- and young voters (Fox News). The Republican presidential dates as well.” nominee did not acknowledge any major missteps in his reported on Oct. 25: “The campaign in a phone call with top donors Wednesday, at- Obama campaign sought to exploit the opening, as did tributing his loss to Obama’s focus on distinct groups rather virtually every Democratic campaign for Senate, pressing than the country as a whole. “The president’s campaign, a message that the Republican Party is out of step with if you will, focused on giving targeted groups a big gift,” female voters. President Obama ‘felt those comments Romney said, citing immigration proposals aimed at His- were outrageous and demeaning to women,’ Jen Psaki, panics and free contraception coverage that appealed to the president’s campaign spokeswoman, told reporters on young women. “He made a big effort on small things.” v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 7 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012

dential forecasts and called every Senate race - except for Howey/DePauw polling North Dakota - correctly. It was the final Howey/DePauw Poll on Nov. 4 that prompted Silver to forecast a Donnelly victory here in Indiana. The Howey/DePauw polling pro- cited by New York Times gram provided Howey Politics Indiana subscribers with the By BRIAN A. HOWEY most accurate data sets and forecasts in the state. v INDIANAPOLIS ­– A New York Times blog review of national and state polling by Nate Silver rated the Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground fourth best out of 90 firms which polled in states 21 days prior to the Nov. 6 election. Howey/DePauw polling, conducted by Re- publican pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research and Democrat Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang on behalf of Howey Poliitcs Indiana had an average error of 0.5% and a bias of +0.5% Democratic. Howey/DePauw rated higher than Selzer, New York Times/CBS, Pew Research, Zogby, CNN, RAND, Quinnipiac and McLaughlin & Associates. McLaughlin pollster John McLaughlin was openly critical of Howey/DePauw polling when our final survey was released on Nov. 4 showing Democrat Joe Donnelly leading his Republican client, Richard Mourdock, 47-36% with 11% undecided. The McLaughlin poll had Mourdock leading. Donnelly ended up with a 50-44% victory. Silver had a pretty good cycle himself, heading into the Nov. 6 election forecasting that President Obama had a 73% chance of reelection. He was 50 for 50 in state presi- HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 8 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012

raising was slow, we ‘Arab Spring’ social media didn’t have enough money for polling, and our primary group tactics bring down ‘Goliath’ of activists, teach- By DAVE GALVIN ers, were on summer INDIANAPOLIS - What did it take to bring down a break. Goliath? Six million targeted web ads, 4,000 targeted cable We needed a ads, 2,000 network television ads, 3,000 radio ads, 120,000 slingshot postcards, 25,600 phone calls from We created an home volunteer, 6,530 miles on the earned media and road, hundreds of volunteers from all social media strategy political backgrounds, three full-time based on a hybrid of two strategies: The 2008 Obama staffers, two part-time staffers, and campaign and the tactics of social media activists of the one incredible candidate. Arab Spring. The Obama juggernaut was one of the first The for superintendent campaigns to use nano-targeting strategies to drive voters of public instruction team began cre- to the Obama website and social media platforms. Arab ating a strategy and campaign plan Spring activists were very effective in not just communi- during the last week of May 2012, cating their message to their supporters and coordinating and started an intense earned media rallies, but they also used basic social media tools to tell campaign in early June. The cam- and show the world, in real-time, what was happening on paign faced a distinct money dispar- the ground. One way they did this was by tagging photos ity, with incumbent Supt. Tony Ben- with the names of relatives and media outlets that lived nett north of $1.6 million and counting, while Ritz raised a and operated abroad, as a result they expanded their viral meager $300,000 with little help from Indiana Democrats universe. or the ISTA - peanuts for a statewide race. The insurgency Earned media was the most traditional strategy uti- was based on both new and traditional campaign methods lized by the campaign. Candidate Ritz held numerous press and structure. We knew we would need to dedicate a ma- conferences in all the major media markets. Between jority of the campaign’s funds to voter outreach and mes- press conferences in Fort Wayne and South Bend, Glenda sage delivery, which meant that the Ritz campaign team would stop in and chat with reporters and editors at small would be small and require a lot of dedicated volunteers. town newspapers. Each stop was reported on the Face- The campaign team consisted of a campaign man- book page with photos, comments and news stories about ager, Trish Whitcomb - daughter of former Republican Gov. Glenda’s visits. - who fulfilled the roles of a campaign co- ordination and finance director. Kristin Reed served as both We needed the scheduler and field director. I served as the political, communications and social media director. Angela Nealy, stones to arm our was a part-time member of the team, and she managed slingshot. church visits, campaign material distribution, and events Glenda’s mes- planning and management. Sally Evans, a retired teacher sage was a well-crafted and our über-volunteer, headed up the policy research. consistent barrage of The Winston Terrell Group was the Ritz team’s strategy challenges to Dr. Ben- consultant. They worked with the staff to draft messaging, nett’s so-called educa- voter targeting, and the overall campaign strategy. tion reforms designed The strategy was simple: Build a strong base of to plant seeds of doubt supporters, supply them with resources and information, in voters’ heads. Those spend funds wisely, run a grassroots campaign by means of seeds needed to be social media, out work our opponent, and be innovative. sowed over-and-over again in the early phases of the cam- It was a David vs. Goliath scenario and we didn’t paign to prepare them for Dr. Bennett’s biggest problem even have a slingshot, not to mention that we didn’t initiate – His A-F assessment system for schools and districts - the the campaign plan until the second week of June, fund- grades released just days before the election and receiving HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 9 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012

widespread media coverage. unique views per week. During Candidate Ritz knew his for- the week of the initial nano- mula was flawed and her team targeting program, that placed was dedicated to making sure over three million targeted web knew it. ads, the number of unique While Glenda was on views exploded to over 10,000. the road holding press con- During the second week of ferences and taking on Dr. the program the site saw over Bennett for his out-of-state 8,000 unique views. In all, over contributions, his department’s six million targeted web ads lack of transparency, and his drew approximately 30,000 use of a flawed artificial growth people to the campaign’s web- model to determine the fate of site, and nearly 4,000 of those schools, teachers began discus- people clicked “like” on the sions about Glenda’s campaign campaign’s Facebook page. By by posting local news coverage Election Day the Facebook page of her press conferences on was being viewed by nearly the campaign’s Facebook page. 200,000 of our “Likers’” friends, Before we knew it, an article and our viral reach was over published in the Lafayette 1.3 million Facebook users. Journal & Courier was being discussed by teachers and Opponent Identified. administrators in Evansville and Slingshot loaded. Just Richmond. First, teachers began to “Like” the Ritz for Educa- wind-up & release. tion Facebook page. Teachers have a lot of friends, and in Like David, we missed a couple of times, but the virtual world that means contacts. Then came parents the social media elements of the campaign kept moving (particularly mothers), administrators, college students, forward. The campaign’s Facebook page became a base and the most interesting of all, Tea Party supporters. But, of operations, communications and networking for thou- the “Likes” and Facebook’s ability to reach new “Likers” sands of teachers, parents, Democrats, Independents, and is limited to the number of new people “Liking” the cam- Republicans. Supporters used the site to challenge others paign’s Facebook page. In mid-September we noticed to write letters to the editor, send more postcards, make that we had hit a “Like” plateau, so the campaign began home-made yard signs, and to set up cell phone parties. purchasing radio and targeted web ads. They knew the Ritz campaign wasn’t going to compete with By the end of the first week of October over three Dr. Bennett’s large donors, and while many “Likers” made million web ads had been strategically placed in front of small contributions, most supporters just wanted to be a over 90,000 targeted voters located in counties surround- part of something bigger – they wanted to stop a political ing Marion County. Radio ads were running in targeted agenda, and return to an education-focused agenda. media markets, and an innovative “Campaign in a Box” Ritz defeated Bennett 1,335,232 to 1,185,104. She and teacher-to-voter postcard program was on its way to received 61,656 more votes that Gov.-elect Mike Pence, delivering over 120,000 personalized pro-Ritz postcards to who outspent her by more than 20 to 1. potential Ritz supporters in targeted precincts across Indi- ana. Bullseye! The giant goes down All of this was coordinated via the campaign’s One week after Glenda Ritz defeated Dr. Bennett Facebook page. The website served as a traditional plat- the number of “Likes” continues to increase. As I put the form that provided visitors with information about Glenda final touches and her campaign, but it also served as a tool to measure on this column the success of the nano-targeting strategy, for each web more than ad was linked to the website, and thanks to our website’s 17,000 Face- analytics we could tell how many people were clicking on book users are the web ads. “talking about” On an average week, before any ads were being Glenda’s Face- broadcast, Ritz’s campaign website saw between 600-800 book page. v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 10 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012

HD69 seat vacated by Democratic State Rep. Dave Cheath- House Democrat erosion am. Democrats are largely compacted into two regions of the state: Marion County and the four-county Region continues; only 10 seats that runs from Lake County to St. Joseph County. Twenty- one of the 31 districts held by Democrats are in these outside of Region, Indy areas. But the Democratic clout is eroding even there as Republicans and Rick Niemeyer won Lake By BRIAN A. HOWEY County districts and Dale Devon won State Rep. Craig Fry’s NASHVILLE, Ind. – As little as a decade ago, district in St. Joseph County. Southern Indiana was fertile electoral ground for so-called The remaining 10 are scattered about the state in “Blue Dogs,” the pro-gun, pro-life Democrats whose roots college towns or in larger urban areas such as Fort Wayne in the party run generations deep. and Evansville. Only one – HD45 represented by Battles – These Democrats historically did especially well in can be called a rural district. the counties that border the But even the Democratic clout is eroding. Ohio and Wabash rivers. The average Democratic district is about 63% The area produced Gov. non-Hispanic white and about 37% total minor- Frank O’Bannon (Corydon) ity. Those numbers for the 69 GOP-held districts and former House Speaker are 90% and 10% respectively. The average Mike Phillips (Boonville). Democrat-held district is not only far more Former House Speaker diverse, but it is slightly older than the average John Gregg is from nearby GOP-held district. Sandborn. This southern stronghold began to crum- Hispanics Total Hispanic population of Indiana is ble in the GOP landslide of n 389,706. About 53% of them live in one of the 2010. Today, Democrats 31 Democrat-held districts; the remaining 47% hold only three of the 11 are spread around the 69 GOP-held districts. House districts that touch Of the 68 districts with the highest non- the Ohio River. In fact, n Hispanic white population, Republicans represent aside from a couple of all but five. (The five Democrats are Goodin, Marion County districts, Battles, Kersey, Shelli VanDenburgh in Lake Democrats hold only six County, and Errington in Muncie.) House districts south of State Rep. , D-Vincennes, Of the 21 districts with the smallest non- I-70: , Terry reclaimed only one Democratic legacy seat in n Hispanic white population, Democrats represent Goodin, Steve Stemler, Southern Indiana last week. The rest of them all but two. (The two Republicans are Tim Wesco Kreg Battles, , may be gone for a long time. (HPI Photo) in Elkhart and Cindy Kirchhofer in Indianapolis.) and . While Battles was able to reel in John Gregg’s old House district in the Knox African-Americans County area, barely winning a 50/50 race, Republicans held Total African-American population in Indiana is on to State Rep. Wendy McNamara, who defeated former 591,365. Nearly 80 percent of them live in Democrat-held legislator Trent Van Haaften in the Posey County area, and districts. retained HD74 with Lloyd Arnold’s victory. That was the n Of the 25 House districts with the largest black seat vacated by Lt. Gov.-elect , who had population, all but two are represented by Democrats. (The upset House Majority Leader Russ Stilwell in 2010. It is cer- two Republicans are Kirchhofer and Wesco) tainly not a stretch to see State Rep. seeking n There are ten majority-minority House districts, a rematch with Battles in 2014 after coming less than a half all are represented by Democrats. Four are in Lake County, percent short last week. five are in Marion County, and one is in Allen County. Other freshmen Republicans reelected in former “legacy” Democratic seats in Southern Indiana include Brown, Porter elevated on Ways & Means State Reps. Jud McMillin, Ron Bacon, Steve Davisson, Matt Speaker Brian C. Bosma (R-Indianapolis) has Ubelhor and Rhonda Rhoads. Jim Lucas picked up the announced the appointment of State Rep. Tim Brown HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 11 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012

(R-Crawfordsville) as the next chairman of the Ways and The new Republican super majority in the Indiana House, Means Committee. “We have such a deep pool of exempla- where the GOP now holds 69 of the 100 seats, grew from ry leaders in our caucus, but Rep. Brown will bring a unique a minority in just the last two elections. 19 of the 25 new perspective and set of experience to the tough job of chair House members in this class are in the GOP. “It’s wonder- of Ways and Means. He has held a variety of leadership po- ful to be part of such a large majority,” says Rep. Todd Hus- sitions within our caucus and most ton (R-Fishers.) “It’s just… we have to be proper stewards recently served as the chairman of of it.” And that’s why freshman (R-Martins- the Public Health Committee. With ville) took time to talk with a new Democratic Senator from his background as a medical doc- her area, Mark Stoops of Bloomington. “We need to get to tor, Rep. Brown (pictured) brings know each other so we can work together to represent the with him a deep understanding of same constituency,” said Mayfield. health care – something that will Members of both parties are talking about chang- certainly be taking center stage as ing the partisan culture that led to walkouts in each of the the state factors in the effects of last two years. “I think that so far we’ve been able to build the new ,” said good relationships.” says Rep. (D-Indianapo- Bosma. “Tim has the skills to give lis), “and a lot of us have talked about getting together for the right prescription and diag- dinner and coffee and to start kind of rebuilding things.” nosis for our state’s fiscal future,” said Speaker Bosma. Trivia question of the Day IUPUI Law Professor David Orentlicher says the Every Indiana county but two has at least one way Indiana chooses to implement the federally mandated Republican representing it in the Indiana House. Name healthcare exchange will significantly impact the budget. them? (See the Ticker on page 15 for answer). “The more control the state has, if the state retains control, the state bears more of the costs, and if it allows the fed- Gubernatorial 2016 and Dem chair eral government to run it, the federal government will pick Who will be the object of Indiana Democratic hot up the costs,” Orentlicher said (Indiana Public Media). stove league talk about the 2016 election? State Rep. (D-Indianapolis) will serve All eyes will be on former and senator as the ranking Democrat on the powerful House Ways and , who is sitting on a $10 million war chest and, Means Committee for the 118th Indiana General Assembly, once again, indicated all his options are open. But close according to Indiana House Democratic Leader allies to Bayh have told HPI that they consider a return as a of Michigan City. “As I look at the upcoming session and gubernatorial candidate unlikely. the discussions on a new state budget, I believe that we Who else will be objects of desire? have many opportunities to pass legislation that balances Because John Gregg came so close, he will make the need to return some of our state’s $2 billion surplus to the list until he definitively rules it out, coming within 4% Hoosier families with a desire to restore some of the fund- of an epic upset of Mike Pence. Had Gregg hired a finance ing that has been taken from our schools and those agen- director earlier than April 2012, and had kicked in his cies within state government that provide critical services contrast ads to Pence two or three weeks earlier, he might to many people across Indiana,” Porter said. have won. Another is Vi Simpson, who is the subject of a Freshman seek unity Facebook campaign to have her take the helm of the Indi- The Indiana General Assembly has a record num- ana Democratic Party. Simpson ran briefly in 2003 and was ber of freshman lawmakers: 29 of the 150 legislators are the lieutenant governor nominee this year. about to serve in their first session (Shella, WISH-TV). All Kokomo Mayor Gregg Goodnight will also be on of the newly elected state lawmakers and even some hold- short lists. He is in his second term as mayor and is seen overs are at the Statehouse this week for instruction. as one of the top mayors in the state. He raises money and They’re learning everything from how to balance their new has brought talent like economic development director Jeb lives to how to file a bill. The lessons come from the bi- Conrad to his administration. partisan Legislative Services Agency. “This group is incred- Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr. is Lake ibly energetic,” says LSA Director George Angelone, “and County Democratic chairman and would love to be more of we’re going to benefit from having a lot of new members a player downstate. v with new ideas.” It’s also an overwhelmingly Republican group. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 12 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012

Pence would do if a bill lifting the freeze reached his desk, Pelath will be good Gov. Mitch Daniels told me in early 2011 that he would sign such a bill. What’s clear is that something has to give. for The Region The Lake County Council on Tuesday voted to bor- By RICH JAMES row $15 million to balance the 2013 budget. Included in MERRILLVILLE – Just when it seemed that there that is a federal mandate to upgrade the county jail. was little hope for Lake County Democrats downstate, While there are those who say the county ought there is sun peeking through the clouds. to simply cut $15 million, it can’t be done. With Republicans now holding a super majority in There was a time when the Lake County govern- the House, just as they have in recent years in the Senate, ment payroll was fat. No, call it obese. the future was gloomy for this part of the state. That no longer is the case. Since the levy freeze That especially would have been true had Pat Bauer of was imposed, the county has eliminated more than 300 South Bend continued as House jobs and reduced spending by $30 million. That is a heck of minority leader. a diet. Bauer always counted on Adding to the problem is that 75 percent of the Lake County’s votes but gave little county government spending goes to the jail, court system in return. If state money was go- and sheriff’s Department. That is largely because of the ing to land in the northern part of drastic reduction in the number of people employed in the Indiana, Bauer made sure it was steel mills that began in 1980. in South Bend. That left the urban cities full of unemployment – a But there is a Santa Claus, condition that brought crime into the neighborhoods. It Virginia. is a condition most Indiana counties don’t face. One-size With the election of Rep. government doesn’t fit all. Scott Pelath, D-Michigan City, as Either Pelath, Lawson and company get busy with House minority leader and Rep. getting rid of the levy freeze or there will be additional Linda Lawson, D-Hammond, as his pressure for imposition of the income tax. second in command, optimism abounds in Lake County. Several Lake County municipalities –all of which are Not since former Rep. Phil Bainbridge, D-Highland, was affected by the levy freeze – have adopted resolutions ask- speaker of the House in the mid-’70s, has Lake County had ing county officials to adopt the income tax. this much clout in the legislature. The county council has the four votes needed to Pelath always has worked well with the Lake adopt the income tax, but not the five votes required to County delegation. He often has gone out of his way for override a certain by county commissioners. the good of the county. Rick Niemeyer, who is leaving the County Lawson has become a respected member of the Council to become a Republican state representative, was House and should be able to make sure that Lake County one of those opposed to the income tax. gets at least its fair share when the state starts doling out And the council will lose another member at the earmarks. first of the year when Mike Repay becomes a county com- Pelath and Lawson have one thing to decide early missioner. Repay is one of the councilmen who wouldn’t on in terms of Lake County. vote to override a commissioners’ veto. Do they want to attempt to do away with the levy Apparently it has come down to this: Either the freeze that has strangled Lake County units of government legislature has to eliminate the levy freeze or one of the since 2007? new county councilmen will have to vote for an income tax. The legislature imposed the freeze until such If neither happens, services from the county and munici- time that the Lake County Council and Commissioners palities will continue to deteriorate. v adopt a local option income tax. While the freeze and demand for the tax are James is the former editorial page editor for the unconstitutional in the eyes of many, Lake County officials Post-Tribune. have done nothing but bemoan their situation. Two county police officers filed a lawsuit against the state more than a year ago, but it has languished in a Lake County court. While it is unknown what incoming Gov. Mike HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 13 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012

PCPI going to be expressed in terms of the whole state? Or, Are we ready to talk about will there be an interest in seeing counties with low PCPI increase their position in the state, reducing the disparity rich and poor counties? between the richest and poorest counties? In 2000, the wealthiest county, as measured by By MORTON J. MARCUS PCPI, was Hamilton at $55,675 in 2010 inflation-adjusted INDIANAPOLIS - During the recent election cam- dollars. Two recessions during the decade, plus moderate paign, candidates talked about per capita personal income inflation and state’s leading population growth rate (49.3 (PCPI) as a measure of our state’s economic success. percent) reduced Hamilton County’s PCPI to $48,692. In Let’s now pretend that our governor-elect, his staff that decade the wedge between the wealthiest and the and his legislature all know that Indiana’s per capita per- poorest counties grew. In 2000, Hamilton stood 2.28 times sonal income (PCPI), relative to the nation, is slipping. Let as wealthy as the poorest county Starke; in 2010 Hamil- us further fantasize that these men and women also under- ton’s edge over Lagrange (the new poorest county) was stand what PCPI is and is not, why it is 2.44. the most commonly used measure of Are our new policy makers ready to consider hunt- economic well-being and why it is the ing with a rifle, that is, county-by-county economic devel- wrong measure. opment? Or are they going to continue the long term prac- Finally, let’s imagine that coun- tice of shotgun development where we satisfy ourselves ties are of consequence to Indiana’s with whatever we hit? v new political elite. This is the greatest assumption we’ll make since it would Mr. Marcus is an independent economist, writer and be a reversal of state policy. Over the speaker. years, Indiana local governments, including counties, have become less important as their powers are dimin- ished and their responsibilities increased. The legislature College presidents seek funds plays them like yoyos, twisting and turning them in strange arcs, yanking them like disobedient tethered dogs. INDIANAPOLIS — The leaders of three of Indiana’s The story of Indiana’s PCPI from 2000 to 2010 be- public universities told state budget officials Wednesday gins with a statewide decrease of 2.3 percent after adjust- that they have made efforts to cut costs and hold down ment for inflation. This happened as total personal income tuition, but they now need the General Assembly to boost grew by 4.1 percent, but population increased by 6.5 per- funding for their schools (Evansville Courier & Press). cent. Our real income did not grow as fast as the number During the first of two days of State Budget Com- of persons living in the state, hence PCPI fell. mittee hearings on higher education, Indiana State Univer- PCPI grows when total personal income increases sity President Daniel Bradley told members they “have an faster than does the population. This happened in just 30 opportunity to make a major statement” about the direc- of our 92 counties, including Monroe, Porter, Vanderburgh, tion of higher education. “I would encourage you to look Floyd, and Jefferson. hard and evaluate the needs of higher education and — if At the same time, 14 counties, including Hancock, at all possible — provide additional dollars for higher edu- Johnson, Clark, and Lake had faster population growth than cation in the next biennium,” Bradley said. personal income growth. The consequence: PCPI declined The request for additional money comes as the despite positive growth in both population and income. State Budget Committee — a group of four lawmakers and If the rate of population decline is smaller than the state budget director — prepares for the General As- the rate of increase in personal income, then PCPI rises. sembly’s budget-writing session in 2013. Between 2000 and 2010, this happened in 18 Indiana It also comes after several years of essentially flat counties, including Jay, Sullivan and Knox. A closer look funding for higher education. shows Knox County (Vincennes) leading the state in PCPI In Fiscal Year 2009 — after several years of budget growth (15.4 percent) because it lost 2 percent of its increases — the funding for public colleges, universities population while increasing its real personal income by 13.1 and student assistance reached a high of $1.78 billion. But percent. Is Knox County our model for prosperity? the following year, Gov. Mitch Daniels implemented a cost- In sum, real PCPI fell in 41 of 92 counties. In 30 cutting plan meant to keep the state’s budget in the black counties real personal income fell and in 29 counties as tax receipts plummeted. That included cuts in money population declined. Is the state’s policy with regard to allocated to universities. v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 14 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday Nov. 15, 2012

George Will, Washington Post: The election’s governor. This is somewhat odd in that it can be argued outcome was foreshadowed by Mitt Romney struggling as that much of rural America has thrived during Obama’s long as he did to surmount a notably weak field of Repub- first term. The agriculture and energy sectors are strong lican rivals. His salient deficiency was not of character but with net farm income up for most crops and commodities of chemistry, that indefinable something suggested by the and increased domestic production of oil and gas creating term empathy. Many voters who thought he lacked this booming economies from up into the Great Plains. did not trust him to employ on their behalf what he does Obama has invested heavily in rural broadband and pushed not lack, economic understanding. On Feb. 11, 2011, the through trade agreements with Korea, Colombia and person who should have been the Republican nominee Panama that he and others hope will expand exports. Yet laconically warned conservatives about a prerequisite for folks in the hinterlands were not happy with the president, persuading people to make painful adjustments to a rickety according to pre-election polls. One survey by Agri-Pulse entitlement state. Said Indiana’s Gov. Mitch Daniels: “A drives this point home with several perplexing data points. more affirmative, ‘better angels’ approach to voters is re- This poll of 319 likely farmers who cultivate at least 500 ally less an aesthetic than a practical one. With apologies acres, found a 77% disapproval of Obama, with 78% for the banality, I submit that, as we ask Americans to join saying they planned to vote for Romney. Get this: 46% of us on such a boldly different course, it would help if they these farmers blamed the Democrats for failure to pass a liked us, just a bit.” Romney was a diligent warrior. Next new farm bill, only 19% saying Republicans were at fault. time, Republicans need a more likable one. And For the record, the Senate (controlled by Demo- one who tilts toward the libertarian side of the crats) passed its farm bill back in June, while the Republican Party’s fusion of social and laissez- GOP-run House has blocked action on a farm bill faire conservatism. Most voters already favor that passed the Agriculture Committee in mid-July. less punitive immigration policies than the ones v angrily advocated by clenched-fist Republicans unwilling to acknowledge that immigrating — NWI Times: How much risking uncertainty for personal and family bet- Doug Ross, legislative muscle does Northwest Indiana have after the terment — is an entrepreneurial act. The speed with which general election? Good question. Lake County has histori- civil unions and same-sex marriage have become debat- cally been a Democratic powerhouse. Downstate Repub- able topics and even mainstream policies is astonishing. As licans -- and when you’re this far north nearly the entire is conservatives’ failure to recognize this: They need not state is downstate -- might not care what happens in endorse such policies, but neither need they despise those, Northwest Indiana. However, Lake County has two new such as young people, who favor them. And it is strange Republican legislators, state Reps. Rick Niemeyer and Hal for conservatives to turn a stony face toward any reconsid- Slager. Slager has House Speaker ’s ear, which eration of drug policies, particularly concerning marijuana, surely will help. The Republican supermajority in the House which confirm conservatism’s warnings about government means they don’t need Democrats’ votes if the Republicans persistence in the teeth of evidence. v are in lockstep, but Bosma has said he will work with the Democrats, as long as they’re willing to work with the Re- Matt Barron, Daily Yonder: Rural Americans left publicans. The House Democratic leadership has changed, some interesting and confounding footprints across the too. The obstinate Pat Bauer has been ousted. Rep. Scott electoral landscape of 2012 in races up and down the bal- Pelath of Michigan City is the new minority leader, and lot. While the mainstream media and punditocracy likes Linda Lawson of Hammond is his second in command. That to neatly categorize rural voters as Republican, the results should help Northwest Indiana as well. v paint a more nuanced picture. Through many recent elec- tions, the conventional wisdom had been that Republicans Lee Hamilton, Evansville Courier & Press: With take rural folks for granted while Democrats ignore them. the elections over, Congress faces a full plate of tough is- That pattern began to change a bit in 2006 and in 2008, sues when it reconvenes. There will be a lot of talk about when Obama won 7% more of the rural vote than John fiscal matters, “grand bargains,” and sorting out party cau- Kerry had in 2004. Obama’s rural gains came from execut- cuses. But there’s one vitally important question we’re cer- ing a focused rural strategy and devoting resources to tain to hear nothing about. That is Congress’s own behavior that effort. However, Obama’s share of the 2012 rural vote — and more specifically, the behavior of its members. After dropped to 37% on November 6; he lost eight of the 10 what may be the most widely panned session in modern most-rural states to Romney and 15 of the 19 states that congressional history, Capitol Hill ought to use every means are more than one-third rural to the former Massachusetts possible to rebuild the American people’s trust. v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 15 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Nov. 15, 2012

CIA director and top military com- Pence rules out mander in Afghanistan (Associated Lugar won’t join state exchange Press). Facing questions from report- Obama cabinet ers, Obama also reaffirmed his belief INDIANAPOLIS - Gov.-elect that the U.S. can’t afford to continue WASHINGTON - Indiana Sena- Mike Pence has ruled out building a tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, tor wasted little time state-run health insurance exchange a key sticking point in negotiations throwing cold water on suggestions he but appears to be leaving open the with Republicans over the impending would join President Obama‘s Cabinet, option of running a joint venture with “fiscal cliff.” He said, “The American but it is still unclear what he will do the federal government as a critical people understood what they were instead (Indiana Public Media).Lugar decision deadline draws near. State getting” when they voted for him after spokesman Andy Fisher blasts those leaders have until Friday to declare a campaign that focused heavily on reports as having been made “with- whether they will manage their own taxes. And he defiantly told critics of out any forethought or knowledge.” programs for providing insurance plans U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice, a poten- Fisher declares the senator‘s next job under the federal health care law. tial candidate to lead the State Depart- will be outside the government, and And even though he won’t be inau- ment, that they should “go after me” says he has had talks with the German gurated for another six weeks, Pence — not her — if they have issues with Marshall Fund and some will provide Indiana’s answer to the the administration’s handling of the universities. Department of Health and Human Ser- deadly attacks on Americans in Beng- vices under an hazi, Libya. His words were aimed at arrangement Republican Sens. John McCain and Daniels opens outgoing Gov. , who have vowed Mitch Daniels to block Rice’s potential nomination. Fort to Port highway worked out with His party also picked up seats in both INDIANAPOLIS - Gov. Mitch this year’s gu- houses of Congress, but the president Daniels joined a contingent of federal, bernatorial can- refrained from claiming a broad man- state and local officials Wednesday didates. Pence, date. to celebrate the opening of the final a longtime opponent of President section of the U.S. 24 improvement ’s law, has said a state- project (Sade, Fort Wayne Journal Ga- run exchange would be too expensive Zoeller predicts zette). “We came in $29 million under and also has cast doubt on expanding abortion bill the original estimate and are ahead the number eligible for . But of schedule” for completion of the opposing a state exchange would not INDIANAPOLIS - Changes to project, Daniels said, crediting the Fort necessarily rule out a “hybrid” system Indiana’s abortion clinic licensing law Wayne district of the Indiana Depart- of state control over federal resources, are expected next session, according ment of Transportation. “Before Gov. based on deadlines set by the Obama to Attorney General . He Daniels took office, we were told there administration. “It’s just one step at a says the current law covers surgical was not even enough money to repair time,” Pence spokeswoman Christy De- , but not clinics perform- roads, and some infrastructure proj- nault said Wednesday. “Obviously Mike ing medication or chemical abortions ects had been on hold for decades,” has been clear on his positions. We’ll (Indiana Public Media). Zoeller says state Sen. David Long, R-Fort Wayne, simply be expressing that again to the any changes likely will depend on said. When the governor announced governor before Friday’s deadline.” input from the Indiana Department of the Toll Road lease, that changed, Health. “What are the risks to women Long said. “It was a bold, outrageous, with a chemical abortion and what courageous and unheard of proposal,” Obama says no is the proper legislative response in Long said, “but had it not been for terms to a regulatory scheme,” Zoeller Major Moves, we would not be stand- security breach says. The issue came up when Indiana ing here today.” Right to Life requested in investigation WASHINGTON - President into the Lafayette Planned Parenthood Barack Obama said Wednesday he has clinic, which is not licensed to perform Quizz answer: seen no evidence that national secu- abortions, but administers chemical rity was threatened by the widening abortions. Sullivan and Scott counties. sex scandal that ensnared his former