V20, N9 Thursday Oct. 9, 2014 Super majorities face Democrat test 10 races in House, Senate races south and in Fort Wayne will determine clout By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – Beleaguered Indiana House Democrats need to make a net pickup of four House seats on Nov. 4 to break the 69- 31 seat Republican super majority. The reality is that with the retirement of State Rep. Kreg Battles in HD45 and the reemergence of former Republican representative Bruce Borders, that seat al- most certainly ends up Republican Reps. Ed Soliday (top left) and Jack Lutz (lower right) and Sens. Ron in the GOP column, so Grooms (top) and Jim Smith are all facing tough challenges from Democrats. Democrats need to pick up five seats elsewhere. While the odds are moderately against such a given the right conditions.” pickup, Republican operatives knew that in the right condi- In the Indiana Senate, three tossup races along tions, the loss of up to six House seats was not beyond the Ohio River, including two held by Republicans, and rac- doubt. As Indiana Democratic Chairman John Zody told es in Fort Wayne and a challenge to State Sen. Mike Delph HPI earlier this month, “There are enough seats in range Continued on page 3 Walorski & the toll road By JACK COLWELL SOUTH BEND – While pundits and pollsters evalu- ate issues of great pith and moment for effect on elec- tions, local peeves with no link to the great issues can decide a congressional race. Back in 2006, Chris “I think the time is coming down Chocola, then the Republican congressman in Indiana’s the road when it is going to be 2nd District, said early in that beyond only same-sex marriage. campaign year that if he was defeated by Democratic chal- Why can’t three or four people lenger Joe Donnelly, it would be due to matters in which he get married?” wasn’t even involved. Chocola - State Rep. Timothy Wesco cited sale of Indiana Toll Road operating rights and required observance of daylight time. He had no vote on the toll Page 2 road lease or daylight time. road operators, who won the lease Both were approved by the to operate it for 75 years, comes at a Indiana General Assembly, not by disturbing time for Congresswoman Congress. Both were pushed to pas- Jackie Walorski, the Republican in- sage with every ounce of political cumbent now fending off a challenge clout by Gov. Mitch Daniels, not by by Democrat Joe Bock. It brings up Chocola. Both also were unpopular her vote as a state legislator for the with large concentrations of voters in toll road deal and gives Bock a chance the highly populated portion of the to exploit it. Donnelly exploited the 2nd District in Northern Indiana. issue, and his opponent didn’t even is a non-partisan newslet- A professional poll commis- have a vote. It also gives Democrats ter based in Indianapolis and sioned by The Tribune showed that an opening to go into Walorski’s state Nashville, Ind. It was founded Daniels then had only a 41 percent legislative career, when she declined in 1994 in Fort Wayne. approval rating. The pollster was to attend a committee meeting where amazed that “toll roads” popped up her vote could have blocked the time It is published by as a significant issue listed by poll re- bill. WWWHowey Media, LLC spondents. Nowhere else in the nation (Note: Walorski had a closer 405 Massachusetts Ave., in any sampling, the pollster said, was than normal reelection in 2006, de- Suite 300 Indianapolis, IN there a toll road issue. feating Democrat Bob Kovach in very 46204 Daniels, a Republican then in Republican HD21 by 8,899 to 7,980). the middle of his first term, was not Time and the toll road can’t on the ballot that fall of ’06. What possibly have the effect of back when Brian A. Howey, Publisher Chocola feared was that voters upset they were such hot topics. Time Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington over the toll road, the time issue and marches on. Daylight time now seems Jack E. Howey, Editor the role of Daniels in both would take more popular. Toll road traffic moves Mary Lou Howey, Editor out their anger on him, the most on, too, and disdain for the lease deal prominent Republican they saw on the and higher tolls may have diminished Maureen Hayden, Statehouse ballot. as well. Daniels, who pushed through Matthew Butler, Daily Wire Chocola lost. Just two years the toughest items on his agenda before, he had clobbered Donnelly. early in his first term, went on to gain Subscriptions In ’06, Donnelly won com- popularity and breeze to reelection. HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 fortably. Many factors of course were But the last thing Walorski involved, including lower approval needs is resurrection of some local HPI Weekly, $350 ratings for President George W. Bush peeves as a sleeper issue to slow her Ray Volpe, Account Manager and the decision of the Democratic frontrunner momentum. 317.602.3620 Congressional Campaign Committee to Her victory margin narrowed email: [email protected] give Donnelly allout support. dangerously in her victory two years In another poll for The Tri- ago when the debate debacle of bune, respondents who said local or Richard Mourdock, the Republican Contact HPI state issues could affect their congres- nominee for the U.S. Senate, hurt www.howeypolitics.com sional vote listed toll roads second, throughout the Republican ticket. Wal- [email protected] just one percentage point below jobs. orski didn’t blunder in that debate, but Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 Daylight time was listed sixth and Gov. some voters took it out on her, Gov. Washington: 202.256.5822 Daniels was listed seventh, ahead of Mike Pence and other Republicans. transportation and the environment. It isn’t always those issues of Business Office: 317.602.3620 Chocola was right to fear a great pith and moment on the nation- backlash from what were then con- al scene that have significant effect on © 2014, Howey Politics Indiana. sidered as the sins of Mitch; he had congressional races. v All rights reserved. Photocopy- come within a few hundred votes of ing, Internet forwarding, fax- carrying St. Joseph County over Don- Colwell has covered Indiana nelly in ’04, but lost in ’06 by nearly politics over five decades for the ing or reproducing in any form, 13,000. Chocola also saw a big swing South Bend Tribune. whole or part, is a violation of against him in LaPorte County and federal law without permission won by only 2,000 votes in Elkhart from the publisher. County. The bankruptcy of the toll Page 3 Arnold in HD74. Super majorities, from page 1 There are also three rematches where House Democrats have a fighting chance: Teacher Melanie are in play, though it is unlikely the Democrats can crimp Wright’s rematch against State Rep. Jack Lutz in HD35 in a the 37-seat GOP super majority in the upper chamber. race he won by under 500 votes in 2012, Mark Spelbring’s Expected conditions point to a very low turnout rematch against State Rep. Alan Morrison in HD42, and election, with many Hoosiers feeling they have little reason teacher Jeff Sparks’ second try against State Rep. Matt to vote. “It’s going to be a turnout election,” said Mike Ubelhor in the traditionally Democratic HD62. Gentry, who has headed the House Republican Campaign And the cherry on top of all this potential House Committee since 1999. drama comes in the reliably Republican HD32, where A Howey Politics Indiana analysis reveals that up Rep. Turner announced earlier this fall that he would seek to 10 House races could be impacted by three competitive reelection, then resign, allowing a Republican caucus to rematches, the reemergence of the Indiana Toll Road issue choose his replacement if reelected. Turner is facing Dem- in Northern Indiana, the closer-than-expected Kentucky ocrat Bob Ashley, who now claims he’s running against U.S. Senate race that will dominate Southern Indiana TV a “ghost” candidate. This situation is unprecedented in markets, and State Rep. Eric Turner’s decision to seek modern House politics. Turner toughed out a closer-than- reelection and then quit. expected primary win against unknown Republican Parvin Those conditions start with an election cycle that Gillim, 3,937 to 2,787. does not feature presidential, gubernatorial or U.S. Sen- At this point, HPI gives House Republicans a ate races, which can set the tone for the rest of the ticket. slightly better than 50-percent chance of preserving their There is a competitive secretary of state race between super majority, which currently stands at 69-31 seats. Sev- Democrat Beth White, who has been a beacon in the latest eral Democrats HPI has talked with who have campaigned chapters of the gay marriage saga, and appointed Secre- with House Democratic candidates haven’t sounded opti- tary of State Connie Lawson. But that race won’t have the mistic about making those kinds of inroads. There are still impact and money velocity that a marquee top ticket race three weeks left in a campaign. In House races, this is the normally would have. In a turnout bid for White, there is time these races begin to develop and shift. the potential of impacting HD89 between Republican State Rep. Cindy Kirchhofer and Democrat Surveyor Debra Jen- kins. House Race Watch Three wild cards are emerging that could possibly Here is a race-by-race breakdown of House seats create such conditions.