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Beshear Set to Romp, Helping Dems Down-Ballot

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Beshear Set to Romp, Helping Dems Down-Ballot FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE August 30, 2011 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Beshear set to romp, helping Dems down-ballot Raleigh, N.C. – Steve Beshear is tied with Tennessee’s Bill Haslam for the fourth most popular governor on which PPP has polled, and he is headed for a re-election romp this fall. Beshear leads Republican David Williams and independent Gatewood Galbraith by a 55-28-10 margin. The last time PPP polled the race was just before last fall’s election, and then, Beshear was up only 44-35 on Williams, with Galbraith not polled. Beshear has a 57-30 approval margin, up from 48-34 last October. The differences over the last ten months are many. For one, Republican turnout seems a little depressed compared to last fall, which is to be expected after a strong showing by conservatives in the midterm. But Beshear is also up from 66% to 78% of Democrats, who make up 55% of the electorate, and from 15% to 19% of the GOP, with Williams down a corresponding amount. Williams has also declined from 16% to 8% with Democrats, and remains with only a quarter of independents. A three-way race for State Treasurer is also helping incumbent Democrat Todd Hollenbach to a strong lead, with 43% to Republican K.C. Crosbie’s 28% and Libertarian Ken Moellman’s 16%. Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway has a decent 47-36 lead in his bid for another term over Republican Todd P’Pool. Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes has only a slim lead to retain the Secretary of State’s office for her party, 38-35 over Republican Bill Johnson. Democrat Adam Edelen is in a similar situation, leading Republican John Kemper III for State Auditor, 34-31. With Richie Farmer abandoning his post to run with Williams for Lt. Governor, Republican James Comer leads Democrat Bob Farmer for Agriculture Commissioner only 37-36. “There’s some indication within these numbers that many Republicans are planning to stay home because their Gubernatorial candidate is so weak,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That could hurt the party’s chances for Secretary of State, Auditor, and Agriculture Commissioner.” PPP surveyed 600 Kentucky voters from August 25th to 28th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates. Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] Kentucky Survey Results Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Steve Beshear’s job performance? of Jack Conway? Approve................. 57% Not sure ................ 13% Favorable........................................................ 38% Disapprove............ 30% Unfavorable .................................................... 35% Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Not sure .......................................................... 27% of David Williams? Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Favorable........................................................ 21% of Todd P'Pool? Unfavorable .................................................... 54% Favorable........................................................ 12% Not sure .......................................................... 25% Unfavorable .................................................... 26% Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Not sure .......................................................... 62% of Gatewood Galbraith? Q9 The candidates for Attorney General are Favorable........................................................ 17% Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Todd 42% P’Pool. If the election was today, who would Unfavorable .................................................... you vote for? Not sure .......................................................... 40% Jack Conway .................................................. 47% Q4 The candidates for Governor are Democrat Steve Beshear, Republican David Williams, Todd P'Pool..................................................... 36% and Independent Gatewood Galbraith. If the Undecided....................................................... 18% election was today, who would you vote for? Q10 The candidates for Secretary of State are Steve Beshear ................................................ 55% Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes and 28% Republican Bill Johnson. If the election was David Williams ................................................ today, who would you vote for? Gatewood Galbraith........................................ 10% Alison Lundergan Grimes ............................... 38% Undecided....................................................... 8% Bill Johnson .................................................... 35% Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jerry Abramson? Undecided....................................................... 26% 35% Q11 The candidates for State Treasurer are Favorable........................................................ Democrat Todd Hollenbach, Republican K.C. Unfavorable .................................................... 22% Crosbie, and Libertarian Ken Moellman. If the election was today, who would you vote for? Not sure .......................................................... 43% 43% Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Todd Hollenbach ............................................. of Richie Farmer? K.C. Crosbie ................................................... 28% Favorable........................................................ 29% Ken Moellman................................................. 16% Unfavorable .................................................... 42% Undecided....................................................... 14% Not sure .......................................................... 29% August 25-28, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 600 Kentucky voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q12 The candidates for State Auditor are Democrat Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Adam Edelen and Republican John Kemper III. 54% If the election was today, who would you vote Woman ........................................................... for? Man................................................................. 46% Adam Edelen .................................................. 34% Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify John Kemper III .............................................. 31% with another party, press 3. 35% Undecided....................................................... Democrat ........................................................ 55% Q13 The candidates for Agriculture Commissioner 36% are Republican James Comer and Democrat Republican...................................................... Bob Farmer. If the election was today, who Independent/Other.......................................... 9% would you vote for? Q18 If you are white, press 1. IfAfrican American, James Comer ................................................. 37% press 2. If other, press 3. Bob Farmer..................................................... 36% White .............................................................. 90% Undecided....................................................... 27% African American............................................. 6% Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008? Other............................................................... 4% John McCain................................................... 48% Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are Barack Obama................................................ 44% older than 65, press 4. 8% Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 18 to 29........................................................... 13% Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, 22% somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat 30 to 45........................................................... conservative, or very conservative? 46 to 65........................................................... 38% Very liberal...................................................... 8% Older than 65 .................................................. 27% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 17% Moderate......................................................... 29% Somewhat conservative.................................. 28% Very conservative ........................................... 19% August 25-28, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 600 Kentucky voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs 2008 Vote 2008 Vote John Bar ack Someone else/Don't John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember Be s he ar Appr oval Williams Favorability Approve 57% 36% 80% 63% Favorable 21% 34% 7% 17% Dis appr ove 30% 45% 13% 33% Unfavorable 54% 34% 74% 64% Not s ur e 13% 19% 8% 4% Not s ur e 25% 32% 18% 19% 2008 Vote 2008 Vote John Bar ack Someone else/Don't
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