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2018 General Election Report by IBRG (Update15)

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2018 General Election Report by IBRG (Update15) A report to supporters and members of Indiana Business for Responsive Government (IBRG), the Indiana Chamber of Commerce, and allied organizations. This report will be updated as additional election results are received in the hours and days following. Tumultuous Political Environment Nets Solid Election Wins Indiana Business for Responsive Government (IBRG), the non-partisan political action program of the Indiana Chamber of Commerce, scored a very successful general election. 70 of 74 IBRG- endorsed candidates facing opposition were victorious. Twenty-one (21) additional endorsed candidates did not face general election challenges. Considerable excitement and upheaval in the Indiana electorate this mid-term election certainly created rough waves and realignments around the state. However, in the end there were few ultimate changes in the political status quo for both candidates and seats held by the parties. Republicans swept all statewide races by significant margins, led by an unexpectedly large double-digit margin victory by Mike Braun for the U.S. Senate seat. In the General Assembly, Republican majorities took a relatively modest hit, but not enough to lose super-majority status. In the House, three (3) incumbent GOP legislators were defeated, resulting in a net breakdown of a 67-33 GOP majority. In the Senate, the Republican super-majority was reduced by just one seat to 40-10 with the defeat of notorious Sen. Mike Delph (R-Carmel). Although the final tally changed little, the Senate battlefield was intense and involved more competitive races than seen in the last decade. It’s very hard to look at the 2018 midterms in Indiana state legislative races as a “status quo” election, even though the number of seats changing was minimal. Significant shifts in the electorate, competitive districts and regions, created a tumultuous battlefield. The 2018 mid-terms in Indiana appear to be an extension of the 2016 election changes and the realignments underway here. Generally, those areas of the state where President Trump won by a safe margin in 2016 performed even stronger for the Republican candidates this year. Those areas where President Trump lost, or it was very close in otherwise GOP areas in 2016, such as 1 white-collar suburbs, growing and diverse urban neighborhoods – there were significant increases in Democratic votes. In other words, those areas that were not competitive for either party in 2016 have become even less so. Republican areas became stronger. Democrat areas became stronger. However, the changes were not enough to result in many defeats of incumbents, as these partisan performance shifts are not large enough to tip very many races in strong GOP areas. Republicans were able to dominate the Indiana election battlefield again in 2018. The political parties and the battlefields here in Indiana and across the country are in the middle of a realignment. That much is clear. 2 Summary of Election Results Indiana House of Representatives Republicans lost three (3) seats in the House to see their reduced to 67-33 majority (pending final vote counts in three races), but still maintaining their “quorum-proof” majority with room to spare. Fourteen (14) seats in the House were “open” (no incumbent on the ballot) and in every one of these the party of the previous legislator managed to hold the seat with little effort. Like in 2016, most of these races were centered in districts picked-off by Republicans in their march to dominance since 2008 that have remained competitive. Suburban areas were particularly competitive this year, as realignment of the electorate continues. Top, Most-Competitive House Races where IBRG-endorsed candidates won: House 4 Rep. Ed Soliday defeated Frank Szcezepanski (pending results) House 5 Rep. Dale DeVon defeated Donald Westerhausen House 74 Rep. Steve Bartels defeated Larry Kleeman House 81 Rep. Martin Carbaugh defeated Kyle Miller House 89 Rep. Cindy Kirchhofer defeated former legislator John Barnes House Incumbents Defeated: House 15 – Rep. Hal Slager (R-Schererville) defeated by Chris Chyung (D-Dyer) House 19 – Rep. Julie Olthoff (R-Crown Point) defeated by Lisa Beck (D-Hebron) House 24 – Rep. Sally Siegrist (R-West Lafayette) defeated by Chris Campbell (R-Lafayette) 3 Indiana State Senate Senate Republicans fought off a number of very spirited challenges from Senate Democrats this year, losing only one (1) seat to result in a 40-10 super-majority. That one loss was controversial Sen. Mike Delph (R-Carmel), defeated by J.D. Ford (D-Indianapolis) in a rematch of the 2014 race. It was arguably one of the biggest Senate campaign battlefields in the last decade. Top, Most-Competitive Senate Races where IBRG-endorsed candidates won: Senate 31 Sen. Jim Merritt defeated Derek Camp Senate 38 Sen. Jon Ford defeated Chris Gambill Senate 46 Sen. Ron Grooms defeated Anna Murray Senate 26 Mike Gaskill defeated Dave Cravens in this open seat IBRG was also very supportive of Linda Rogers for the open Senate 11 seat she took from Sen. Joe Zakas in the primary election. In Senate 25, Democratic Leader Tim Lanane faced a strong challenge from trial lawyer Zaki Ali (R-Anderson) with strong backing by the Senate GOP caucus, but Lanane prevailed. 4 Indiana Statewide, Non-Federal % Precincts Office Candidates Vote Total Percent Reported Secretary of State Jim Harper (D) 910,500 40.6% 100% Connie Lawson (R) 1,260,935 56.2% Mark Rutherford (L) 71,163 3.2% Other (Ind/Write‐in) 86 0.0% Auditor of Joselyn Whittacker (D) 912,628 41.0% 100% State Tera Klutz (R) 1,234,001 55.5% John Schick (L) 76,960 3.5% State John Aguilera (D) 910,649 41.2% 100% Treasurer Kelly MItchell (R) 1,299,304 58.8% 5 Congress - U.S. Senate and U.S. House Chamber % Precincts Office Candidates Endorsed Vote Total Percent Reported U.S. Senate Joe Donnelly (D) 1,021,318 45.0% 100% Mike Braun (R) 1,155,284 50.9% Lucy Brenton (L) 91,032 4.0% Other (Ind/Write‐in) 15 0.0% CD 1 Peter Visclosky (D) 159,388 65.1% 100% Mark Leyva (R) 85,493 34.9% Jonathan Kleinman (I) 0 0.0% CD 2 Mel Hall (D) 103,216 45.2% 100% Jackie Walorski (R) Endorsed 125,230 54.8% Richard Wolf (I) 1 0.0% CD 3 Courtney Tritch (D) 86,420 35.3% 100% Jim Banks (R) Endorsed 158,655 64.7% CD 4 Tobi Beck (D) 87,801 35.9% 100% Jim Baird (R) Endorsed 156,501 64.1% CD 5 Dee Thornton (D) 137,096 43.2% 100% Susan Brooks (R) Endorsed 180,015 56.8% CD 6 Jeannine Lee Lake (D) 79,417 32.9% 100% Greg Pence (R) Endorsed 154,277 63.8% Tom Ferkinhoff (L) 8,027 3.3% John Miller (I) 1 0.0% Heather Leigh Meloy (I) 0 0.0% CD 7 André Carson (D) 140,623 64.9% 100% Wayne "Gunny" Harmon (R) 76,112 35.1% CD 8 William Tanoos (D) 86,816 35.6% 100% Larry Buschon (R) Endorsed 157,321 64.4% CD 9 Liz Watson (D) 118,035 43.5% 100% Trey Hollingsworth (R) Endorsed 153,198 56.5% 6 Race by Race Results – Indiana State Senate Chamber Office Candidates Endorsed Vote Total Percent SD 1 Frank Mrvan (D) 29,569 63.3% Charles Kallas (R) 17,141 36.7% SD 4 Karen Tallian (D) 26,634 60.4% Cole Stultz (R) 17,486 39.6% SD 6 Ryan Farrar (D) 18,824 36.8% Rick Niemeyer (R) 32,357 63.2% SD 11 Ed Liptrap (D) 17,119 38.9% Linda Rogers (R) Endorsed 26,941 61.1% SD 14 Dennis Kruse (R) Endorsed 34,522 100.0% SD 15 Kathy Zoucha (D) 19,274 44.6% Elizabeth Brown (R) Endorsed 23,897 55.4% SD 17 Gary Snyder (D) 11,911 28.2% Andy Zay (R) Endorsed 30,320 71.8% SD 19 Travis Holdman (R) Endorsed 29,838 100.0% SD 21 Christina Fivecoate (D) 15,730 34.9% James Buck (R) Endorsed 29,381 65.1% SD 22 Sheryl Shipley (D) 16,715 44.7% Ron Alting (R) Endorsed 20,710 55.3% SD 23 Phil Boots (R) Endorsed 36,218 100.0% SD 25 Tim Lanane (D) 19,575 51.9% Zaki Ali (R) 16,638 44.1% Robert Jozwiak (L) 1,516 4.0% SD 26 Dave Cravens (D) 18,555 38.8% Mike Gaskill (R) Endorsed 27,641 57.8% Greg Noland (L) 1,625 3.4% 7 SD 27 Jerome Hoog (D) 11,426 29.1% Jeff Raatz (R) Endorsed 27,789 70.9% SD 29 J.D. Ford (D) 31,880 56.7% Mike Delph (R) 24,373 43.3% SD 31 Derek Camp (D) 28,597 48.6% James Merritt (R) Endorsed 30,217 51.4% SD 38 Chris Gambill (D) 16,939 44.1% Jon Ford (R) Endorsed 21,483 55.9% SD 39 Eric Bassler (R) Endorsed 34,193 100.0% SD 41 Ross Thomas (D) 14,458 33.4% Greg Walker (R) Endorsed 28,884 66.6% SD 43 Chip Perfect (R) Endorsed 35,502 100.0% SD 45 John Perkins (D) 16,483 34.1% Chris Garten (R) Endorsed 30,343 62.7% Charles Johnson (L) 1,552 3.2% SD 46 Anna Murray (D) 22,544 45.5% Ron Grooms (R) Endorsed 26,990 54.5% SD 47 Nicholas Siler (D) 16,057 33.5% Erin Houchin (R) Endorsed 31,834 66.5% SD 48 Mark Messmer (R) Endorsed 38,819 100.0% SD 49 Edie Hardcastle (D) 16,261 36.0% Jim Tomes (R) 28,870 64.0% 8 Race by Race Results – Indiana House of Representatives Chamber Office Candidates Endorsed Vote Total Percent HD 1 Carolyn Jackson (D) 11,731 86.2% Donna Dunn (L) 1,882 13.8% HD 2 Earl Harris, Jr.
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