V22, N36 Thursday, May 18, 2017

Trump controversies swirl by Pence

tutional no man’s land. It shifted into higher gear Wednes- Freelancing in ‘downward day with the Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein’s spiral’ as Pence stays positioned hiring of former FBI Director as special counsel for the /Trump campaign probe. And it has By BRIAN A. HOWEY raised the specter of a potential Trump impeachment and – Let me make one thing perfectly the potential of a Pence presidency. clear: Vice President arduously sticks to highly On Wednesday, Pence filed FEC paperwork for the scripted, time-tested, narrow talking points. And President creation of a new leadership PAC. Trump? Not so much. Sad! Since Trump fired FBI Director on This past week, we’ve witnessed a honeymoonless teetering somewhere in a legal and consti- Continued on page 3 Trump Jr. reminds GOP By TONY SAMUEL INDIANAPOLIS – What a huge week for the State GOP and especially for original Trump supporters in Indi- ana. Having a Trump in the state six months to the night of being first on the board to elect Donald J. Trump presi- “There’s two people I think Putin dent, and one year to the week of winning the critical pays: Rohrabacher and Trump. primary, was a big-league way to Swear to God.” cap off a great year. The 20-point general - House Majority Leader election victory followed but also overshadows Indiana’s primary Kevin McCarthy, in a conver- win when candidate Trump won sation recorded in June 2016. all nine congressional districts, thus collecting all 57 Indiana House Speaker delegates and knocking out his ordered the remarks kept last two opponents. Remember the surprise withdrawal by Sen. secret. Page 2 that night followed by Gov. state chair Rex Early introduce the Kasich the next day? Back then, nation’s first son. After more than a Jr. was in the state in year of campaigning and traveling the April, stumping for his Dad. Having state with him, I knew that Rex was him back was a cool reminder of how honored, excited and nervous to be important Indiana was for the Trump on that stage and again in the spot- nomination. light. Of course he came through like That May 3 primary win, at a true Marine and added some humor a time when pundits could only focus when sharing how Don Jr. took time on what would keep Donald Trump out from hunting for votes to do some Howey Politics Indiana from the nomination, propelled him turkey hunting while in Indiana last WWHowey Media, LLC 405 on a clear path to well over the 1,237 spring, a passion shared by Rex. Massachusetts Ave., Suite delegates needed without having to The reminder of all of the 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 worry about any further competition. hard work and how rewarding the Don Jr. acknowledged it in his speech payoff has been was followed by a call www.howeypolitics.com before over 1,000 loyalists, saying that to stay vigilant and continue the effort it all started in Indiana. in 2018 to win back the Senate seat Brian A. Howey, Publisher Kudos to Kyle Hupfer, do- held by , “My father will Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington ing a terrific job in his new role as need that vote,” said Don Jr. Jack E. Howey, Editor state chairman, for asking Don Jr. to Another reminder from the headline the first state Mary Lou Howey, Editor GOP dinner under new Thomas Curry, Statehouse leadership. I am especially Mark Curry, photography pleased that Republicans in Indiana have unified around our president. Subscriptions Hopefully it stays HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 that way after the latest HPI Weekly, $350 round of unsubstanti- Ray Volpe, Account Manager ated stories coming out of 317.602.3620 and New York Times and pure email: [email protected] hypocrisy coming from Contact HPI national democrats follow- [email protected] ing James Comey’s firing. Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 Not to digress, but it is funny how Comey’s firing Washington: 202.256.5822 completely confused Hill- Business Office: 317.602.3620 ary’s comeback after she had again blamed him for her loss. I primary came when Don Jr. men- © 2017, Howey Politics don’t think we’ve heard Donald Trump Jr. gets a hug from Rex Early at the Indiana Indiana. All rights reserved. from her since – what can GOP Spring Dinner. Early chaired the presidents 2016 she say now? And why Indiana campaign. (HPI Photo by Tony Samuel) Photocopying, Internet forward- are stories with unnamed ing, faxing or reproducing in sources, that are easily debunked, so tioned Bob Knight’s support and that any form, whole or part, is a quick to become the latest bombshells he wants to keep helping. Candidate violation of federal law without from the unglued media? A mob Trump held seven rallies in the last 13 permission from the publisher. mentality has now taken over the na- days before that primary win, not just tional media and national democrats. with Bob Knight but also with Gene Remember that none of the people Keady, Digger Phelps and Lou Holtz that we are hearing from have even via a video endorsement shown at seen the Comey memo. But back the South Bend rally, proving Trump to that dinner in and about Indiana, was a unifier, not a divider. He united where heads are more level. Indiana sports fans. For true Trumpers, it was April, 2016, was significant great not just to have Don Jr. in town for another reason. On April 20, the but also to have the Indiana Trump day after Trump had devastated his Page 3 opponents in the New York primary, he made his first The rest is history, but much of this story is forgot- campaign visit to Indiana, holding the first of the two ten because of the dizzying pace of events that followed, state fairground rallies. He made a stop at the ’s including the Republican Convention in Cleveland, the race Residence for his first meeting with then Gov. Mike Pence to the finish on Nov. 8, the transition and now four months which went extremely well and was the actual beginning into the first term. of a great partnership that was cemented again in Indiana It was great to have Donald Trump Jr. back in on July 12 and 13. On those dates, Gov. Pence had the Indiana with a positive message and as a reminder of the good fortune of a flat tire to the Trump plane after a rally events that occurred before and after that May 3 primary. in Westfield, following a event at the Columbia Incredible things have happened for Indiana and from Club. Indiana for this Trump presidency, and they will continue. That flat tire ledto an unscheduled dinner meet- v ing at a downtown restaurant attended by Donald and Eric Samuel is president of Samuel Solutions in - Trump and Gov. Pence and First Lady , and napolis and was vice chair of the Indiana Trump then a hastily scheduled morning breakfast meeting with campaign in 2016. Don Jr. and Ivanka flying in to participate.

impeachment territory now for the first time.” Or the 2000 Trump/Pence, from page 1 Republican presidential nominee, U.S. Sen. John McCain, May 9, we’ve witnessed him undercut his defenders, in- who described the emerging Trumpian scandals as reach- cluding Pence, acknowledging to NBC’s Lester Holt a week ing “Watergate size and scale.” ago, “I was going to fire Comey, my decision. There is no And Republican U.S. Sen. Bob Corker said the good time to do it; by the way, I was going to fire regard- Trump White House was in a “downward spiral.” less of recommendation.” New York Times reporter Charlie Savage asked the That came after Pence said on May 9, “Let me be question, what is obstruction of justice? Several federal very clear that the president’s decision to accept the rec- statutes criminalize actions that impede official investiga- ommendation of the deputy tions. While some examples of illegal attorney general and the ways to thwart the justice system attorney general to remove are specific – like killing a witness or Director Comey as the head destroying evidence – the law also of the FBI was based solely includes broad, catchall prohibitions. and exclusively on his com- For example, Sections 1503, 1505 mitment to the best interests and 1512 of Title 18 have variants of of the American people and language making it a crime if some- to ensuring that the FBI has one corruptly “obstructs, influences the trust and confidence of or impedes any official proceeding.” the people this nation.” Po- Could that cover asking the FBI litico reported, “Pence knew director to drop part of an investiga- this wasn’t about Rosenstein tion, and later firing him? In theory, writing a memo, the president seeing it and suddenly yes. Such statutes were broadly deciding to fire Comey,” said this person. “He knows better drafted. Georgetown Prof. Julie O’Sullivan, a former federal than that.” prosecutor, said the power relationship between a presi- We’ve learned that Trump pressed Comey for his dent and the FBI director could elevate a request to shut “loyalty” in February and then asked him to terminate down a case into an act that amounts to impeding an offi- the FBI investigation of former National Security Adviser cial investigation. “He really needs a lawyer,” Ms. O’Sullivan , who had lied to Pence last January, some- said of Mr. Trump. “He is building a beautiful case against thing that the vice president wasn’t informed of for about himself.” two weeks. These actions have conjured the Nixonian era As bomblets, MOABs, boulders and shards careen phrase “obstruction of justice.” down Capitol Hill to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, we find It’s insightful when the legendary White House the Trump White House in a state of bedlam and paranoia. utility infielder, , who worked for both im- Axios reported: “Republicans close to the White House fear peachable Presidents Nixon and Clinton, picks up the that Tuesday’s revelations could take President Trump into narrative telling CNN, “I was in the Nixon administration, a legal or constitutional realm where his staff and support- as you know, and I thought after watching the Clinton im- ers can’t save him. ‘A whole new door has opened,’ said a peachment I’d never see another one, but I think we’re in well-known Republican operative who has worked to help the Trump White House. ‘A week ago, we were talking Page 4 about the agenda grinding to a halt,’ throw some new phony attack at the wall the Republican said. ‘Now, the train is to see what sticks. While they play politi- going down backwards.’” cal games, the Middle East is on fire and re- has been empowered. is ported: “Mr. Trump’s appetite for threatening the world. Russia has never chaos, coupled with his disregard for been more influential since the fall of the the self-protective conventions of the Berlin Wall. All of this is because of the presidency, have left his staff confused naive, failed foreign policy of the Obama and squabbling. And his own mood, administration and Washington liber- according to two advisers who spoke als including Joe Donnelly. They’ve made on the condition of anonymity, has become sour and dark, America less safe. I have confidence that President Trump, turning against most of his aides – even his son-in-law, Vice President Pence, Secretary Tillerson, Secretary Mattis, – and describing them in a fury as incom- Director Coats and our intelligence and law enforcement petent, according to one of those advisers.” And this from agencies will keep America safe.” : “’Nobody knows where this really goes from here,’ His potential opponent, U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly the White House official said. ‘Everyone is walking around observed, “This White House needs to get its act together. saying, ‘What is next?’ Another official said, ‘We are kind of This information should never have been shared with the helpless.’” Russians or anyone else without the okay of whoever shared it with us. Lives are on the line in the fight against The Mueller factor ISIS and other extremist adversaries. This isn’t a game.” The appointment of former FBI Director Mueller as the Department of Justice’s special prosecutor for the Rus- The notion of ‘President Pence’ sian/Trump campaign probe injects a new dynamic. Mike Through all of this self-inflicted turmoil that threat- Allen of Axios observes this morning: President Trump ens to swamp the GOP agenda, the once obscure notion gets a Russia respite — at the price of long-term peril. The that there might be a “President Pence” between now and surprise appointment of straight-arrow Mueller as Special 2021 has just ratcheted up several notches. Counsel (“to oversee the previously-confirmed FBI investi- Pence has emerged as what Politico describes as gation of Russian government efforts to influence the 2016 “the invisible man,” with reporters Matthew Nussbaum and presidential election and related matters”) lets the White Eliana Johnson writing: “While many vice presidents angle House and Hill try to get traction on other topics. But Ya- for power inside the West Wing, Pence has defined his role hoo’s Michael Isikoff, steeped in federal law enforcement, narrowly. His thinking, according to those close to him, is told on MSNBC that the selection was that the vice president has only two constitutional duties the “worst possible choice for the White House ... danger- – to serve as and to be prepared ous.” for the worst. The rest is up to Trump. The former Indiana Mueller is by-the-book, focused on making cases, governor speaks with Trump multiple times a day and is viewed as impervious to outside influence. Mueller also a regular presence in the , senior administra- happens to be friends with the spurned Jim Comey, tion officials say. He has cultivated good relationships with another reason that the choice — announced by Rosen- and son-in-law Jared Kushner, remains close stein, who apparently was irate that the Comey firing was with chief of staff and senior adviser Kel- initially pinned on him by the White House — is worrisome lyanne Conway, has developed a bond with economic ad- for the West Wing. viser , and even has a good rapport with .” GOP shift begins It’s worth noting that while Pence is a constant Some Hoosier Republicans began shifting their Oval Office presence, he was nowhere to be seen when tone this week. U.S. Sen. reacted to Trump’s the Russians showed up last week. relay of highly classified material to the Russians, tell- This week, Pence launched his own leadership ing Roll Call it was an “incredibly serious situation.” U.S. PAC - - which will be led by Rep. said, “President Trump has the authority longtime aides Marty Obst and . Its registra- to disclose intelligence information but the implications of tion was posted with the FEC on Wendesday. “The Vice sharing sensitive material must be carefully considered. President is playing a leading role in passing legislation on The lives of intelligence professionals around the globe the Hill,” Ayers told Politico. “He wants to support House and vital international partnerships depend on the respon- and Senate members who are helping pass the president’s sible safeguarding of sensitive information.” agenda.” And the contours of the 2018 U.S. Senate race “Having Pence in reserve is one of the few things, began to take shape, with U.S. Rep. ardently I think, that is calming Republican nerves,” Rice University defending Trump, saying, “Every day Washington liberals presidential historian Douglas Brinkley told Politico today. “It would just be a more mild-mannered Pence who never Page 5 says anything offensive, who doesn’t take to , who get hairy. He’s doing it again amid the continuing fallout goes to Church every Sunday.” from his decision to fire James Comey as FBI director. Pence’s loyalty to Trump in a White House where Trump demands unquestioning loyalty from his subordi- the president has lined up yes men hasn’t translated into nates, but kowtowing and paying fealty do not ensure the kind of clout within the administration or that he’ll return the favor.” a position within Trump’s inner circle, Nussbaum and John- Trump clearly prefers yes men. Just last weekend, son reported. Nor is it clear Pence has tried to place him- senior officials attested to this. “I understand I have to self there. “If he isn’t ineffectual, earn his confidence every day,” Secretary he sure is invisible,” said one of State said on NBC’s Meet prominent Republican. Another, a the Press. , counselor longtime friend of the vice presi- to the president, explained on dent, said that it’s “not clear that last Thursday, as the Comey imbroglio he has any more influence than blew up, “The president expects people any other senior staffer.” Chris who are serving in his administration … Ruddy, a friend of the president’s to be loyal to the administration.” And and CEO of the conservative UN Ambassador said on media company Newsmax, called ABC’s This Week, “The president is the him “the perfect vice president for Donald Trump” in part CEO of the country. He can hire and fire whomever he because he “lets the president glow without distraction.” wants. That’s his right.” Former House Speaker observed, The Haley quote was rebuked by MSNBC’s Joe “He hasn’t gotten any scars in the first 100 days. In a Scarborough, who reminded Trumpers that the presi- place this controversial, I’d say that’s pretty good.” dency is nothing like a private business run by a CEO. It But we’ve watched Trump’s “glow” go from the is subject to constitutional checks and balances that chafe kind of limelight one earns with one of the greatest politi- President Trump, and he must work with Congress to cal upsets in American history to that of radioactive. achieve objectives, instead of just ordering them per- formed. Can’t fire a veep “Trump is like a pilot opting to fly a plane through Pence occupies a unique position amid the churn- heavy turbulence then blaming the flight attendants when ing turmoil. While Steve Bannon, Reince Priebus, Kellyanne the passengers get jittery,” Post reporter Phil Rucker Conway and any cabinet secretary who crosses a Trump observed. “Some of Trump’s allies said they are worried apparatchik could conceivably hear “You’re fired,” Trump that the president views the Comey episode entirely as cannot fire his vice president. Pence can be marginal- a public-relations crisis – a branding problem – and has ized, as President Wilson did with Vice President Thomas not been judicious about protecting himself from legal Marshall a century ago. Pence seems to be doing what he exposure as the FBI continues to investigate possible links does best, which is to hover over the flotsam and jetsam between his campaign and Russia.” with a sunny disposition, irritating no one, and positioning himself for perhaps the great reward emanating from the The ultimate Pence caluculation most epic Shakespearean political drama we’ll ever wit- Last June, when scores of establishment Repub- ness. licans wouldn’t touch Trump’s veepstakes with a 10-foot Thus, the coming months will be fascinating for pole, Mike Pence was all in. He sought to become the top Mike Pence. It could be a painful experience. yes man. It was a historic roll of the dice. It saved Pence’s Twice, with the Flynn lies and now his defense of political career from a potential Indiana reelection defeat. the Comey firing, Pence has been undercut by President But it has placed the former Indiana governor at the Trump. This has happened to H.R. McMaster, nexus of scandal, dysfunction, paranoia and turmoil. and a host of others who have defended the president, The speculation that President Trump might only to find themselves contradicted on the Twitter ma- not want to serve a full term – something he fueled chine or in Trump interviews. Trump veers off script like a with strange comments last July in the middle of the carnival bumper car or a Rosie O’Donnell rendition of the campaign – has evolved into a scenario where his own National Anthem. actions and words might bring him to trial in the Senate. James Hohmann of the Washington Post called Trump’s antagonism of the U.S. intelligence community loyalty to Trump a one-way street. “Many West Wing staff- (he compared them to Nazis) and the press (“enemies of ers have sacrificed their personal reputations by parrot- the people”), and his firing of the meticulous note-taking ing falsehoods on behalf of Donald Trump. How will their Comey have positioned this president on a withering firing devotion be repaid? Perhaps with pink slips,” Hohmann line. writes. “The president has a congenital inability to take Listening to this staccato, keeping his head below personal responsibility for his own mistakes. Throughout the crosshairs, is Vice President Pence, a heartbeat away. his career, he’s sought out scapegoats whenever situations v Page 6

I was aware the pressure was building, and I’d decided I The day Ruckleshaus didn’t want to do it,” Ruckleshaus explained. “In my judg- ment, Cox had done everything he was supposed to do as special prosecutor.” Richardson resigned and Ruckleshaus stood tall vs. Nixon was fired. By BRIAN A. HOWEY The “Saturday Night Massacre” created the ulti- BRECKENRIDGE, Colo. – The storm clouds of mate slippery slope for Nixon, who was ordered by the scandal that had gathered over President Nixon in 1973 Supreme Court to turn over the Watergate tapes in July appeared to have reached a climax when Vice President 1974. He resigned on Aug. 8, facing imminent impeach- abruptly resigned, pleading “nolo contendere” ment. to taking bribes as a public servant in Maryland. Lead- The relevancy of this episode gained traction on ing that investigation had been Tuesday when President Trump fired FBI Director James Deputy Attorney General William Comey. D. Ruckleshaus. There were three investigations into Trump’s When Agnew resigned, 2016 presidential campaign and whether there was collu- Ruckleshaus, a former state sion with the Russian government to impact the outcome: senator from Indianapolis and The U.S. House, the U.S. Senate and the FBI. Only one of the 1968 Republican U.S. Sen- those, the FBI, could press criminal charges against the ate nominee, headed to Grand president, his inner circle, or campaign aides. Rapids to launch a background Trump’s rationale? In a memo from Deputy At- check into the newly nominated torney General Rod Rosenstein, Comey refused “to accept vice president, U.S. Rep. Gerald the nearly universal judgment that he was mistaken” to Ford. In an interview with C- go public in July with his reasons for recommending no SPAN’s Brian Lamb, Ruckleshaus criminal charges again Clinton and he had “usurped” the related that Attorney General Eliot Richardson told him, attorney general’s authority. “We’ve got an even worse problem than the vice presi- Trump, who was reportedly fuming about the Rus- dent.” sia probe for the past two weeks, has now fired Comey, “That’s not possible,” Ruckleshaus reacted. Richard- son responded, “Yes, it is. The White House seems determined to fire Archibald Cox.’” Cox was the Watergate special prosecu- tor investigating President Nixon. “And I remember saying, ‘Don’t worry about it. They’ll never do that. There would be too much of a public furor if they tried.’” On Oct. 19, 1973, Cox had given an impassioned press conference, defending his in- vestigation that began with the Watergate break-in of the Demo- cratic National Committee and had become a direct threat to Nixon. “Whether ours shall continue to be a government of laws and not of men is now for Con- District Attorney Preet Bharara, and Acting At- gress and ultimately the American people,” Cox said. torney General Sally Yates, all with authority to investigate As the heat turned up in Washington, Ruckle- the president. shaus returned from Grand Rapids two days prior to the In this wake, NBC’s First Read points out: “Ev- Cox news conference. The pressure from Nixon to fire Cox ery time President Trump has faced the choice between intensified as he was seeking the White House Oval Of- advancing his own interests and upholding the country’s fice’s tapes. separation of powers, traditions and norms, he’s picked Thus, the so-called “Saturday Night Massacre” was the former.” He won’t release his taxes. He wants to break set. Nixon ordered Richardson to fire Cox on Oct. 20 and up the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. He hasn’t divested he refused. “He subsequently asked me, and I told him the business conflicts. He claims Obama wiretapped him. He same thing, that I had been thinking about this all week. calls the FBI investigation “phony” and “.” Page 7

The riveting ques- dence of both Republicans and tion is why didn’t Trump fire Democrats. If Trump was to fire Comey in January when he Comey, he should have done it took office? He would have on Jan. 20, because on March had wide support, including 20, we now realize that the here. Instead, this comes president is possibly in the legal after Comey’s March 20 crosshairs. testimony confirming the FBI Here are two reactions probe while refuting Trump’s of note: The Russians have to claims of the Obama wire- be doing the Soviet equivalent taps. of the high-fives for all of the As Jay Caruso, writ- resulting Yankee chaos. Asked ing on the conservative blog about the Comey firing just RedState, observed, “The hours before he was to meet answers to both steamroll with Trump on Wednesday in President Trump’s rantings the Oval Office, Russian Foreign and ravings about them on Minister Sergei Lavrov said, Twitter and in public.” “Was he fired? You’re kidding? You’re kidding?” Conservative commentator Peter Wehner, ob- Yes, America, they’re not laughing with us, but at served, “A powerful, independent person Mr. Trump did us. not appoint and whose investigation he clearly feared has And C-SPAN’s Lamb asked Ruckleshaus if he ever been summarily fired. He would not use power benevo- worried the U.S. would fall apart back in 1973-74. “I never lently but unwisely, recklessly, and in ways that would had any doubt that the system would hold. In a sense, the undermine our democratic institutions and faith in our wheels . . . came off those individuals, they didn’t come off government.” the country,” Ruckleshaus said. “The country held together Comey impacted the 2016 election twice and in very well.” v unprecedented form for an FBI director. He had lost confi- Page 8

partner of Gov. Frank O’Bannon and wowed Democratic Are political spouses crowds with her impassioned narratives. Karen Pence was an impactful presence in Gov. Mike Pence’s inner circle. Ruthie McIntosh played a key role with U.S. Rep. David fair campaign game? McIntosh. Lake Superior Judge Marisa McDermott is the By BRIAN A. HOWEY wife of four-term Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr. INDIANAPOLIS – Ahhhhh, the political spouse. Are Other political wives, such as Maggie Kernan, these people fair political game? Cheri Daniels and Josie Orr were known for different The issue surfaced with the story reasons, playing limited roles for Govs. , Mitch last week that Jennifer Messer, wife of U.S. Rep. Luke Daniels and Robert Orr, often by their own design. Mrs. Messer, made $580,000 since 2015 for legal consulting she Kernan, for instance, was a South Bend bank executive largely does from the Washington, D.C., area for the city of during her husband’s tenure as lieutenant governor and Fishers, “an unusually large sum governor. even in a state rife with highly One other political wife stands out: Susan Bayh, paid government contractors,” ac- wife of former U.S. Sen. and Gov. . She was the cording to a review by the Associ- topic numerous reports that when Bayh retired from the ated Press. U.S. Senate in 2011, he left with a fortune estimated to Mrs. Messer makes be around $14 million. Much of that was attributed to Mrs. $20,000 a month working as a Bayh, who held an array of lucrative corporate board posi- contract attorney for Fishers, according to the AP’s review tions for Curis Inc., Dendreon Corp., Dyax Corp., Emmis of public documents. Messer defended his wife, calling her Communications, and Wellpoint Inc. the “brains of the Messer outfit” and saying the contract Because the Bayhs appeared to have cashed in predated his political career. Messer is blaming a planted on his political position, Mrs. Bayh stood to be a campaign story line by his potential 2018 U.S. Senate opponent, U.S. issue when Sen. Bayh was presumed to be preparing Rep. Todd Rokita. In an for a reelection bid. When he email to supporters ob- suddenly bolted the race in tained by Howey Politics February 2010, there was wide Indiana, Messer said, “For speculation that Mrs. Bayh’s what it’s worth, the story exposed finances were a key is a complete hatchet reason. It resurfaced in 2016 job directly attributable when Bayh tried a political to Rokita. Just about the comeback, pushing only element not dis- out of the U.S. Senate nomina- torted is the headline. tion last July. The Bayh brand Needless to say, it’s rare was damaged by the campaign for campaigns to start by of Todd Young and a variety of attacking an opponent’s U.S. Senate and conservative spouse. But, I guess we PACs, who went on to claim a all knew Todd is anything 52-42% upset victory. but ordinary. Most impor- The 2016 Senate race also tantly, this is completely skirted another political spouse, unfair to my wife. I, of Christy Stutzman, who played course, ran for office, a significant role in the Senate but she did not. She has campaign of U.S. Rep. Marlin worked 16 years to build The family of U.S. Rep. Luke and Jennifer Messer. Stutzman. The Young campaign a career.” successfully seeded stories with This follows a 2016 the Associated Press about po- campaign/media dynamic where the campaign of U.S. Sen. tential campaign finance violations involving the travels of Todd Young repeatedly planted negative stories on U.S. the Stutzman family. She was also a topic of stories during Rep. (and his family) to Brian Slodysko of a couple of shakeups in the Stutzman Senate campaign. the Associated Press. And it worked! Young easily won the In this context, Jennifer Messer stands to join Su- primary and Slodysko was named Indiana Journalist of the san Bayh as a spouse who “cashed in,” as the AP narrative Year by the Society of Professional Journalists. goes. In the modern era of Indiana politics, political Jennifer Messer begged to differ, saying in an op- wives have taken on a variety of roles. Marvella Bayh ed article circulated last week, “Last week I was featured was the revered matriarch of a senatorial dynasty. Judy in a news story about the fact that I provide legal services O’Bannon wielded considerable influence as a conspicuous for the city of Fishers. The story was unfair, intellectually Page 9 dishonest and straight-up County Republican sexist. You know the charge; chairman Kyle Walk- congressman’s wife (by the er. Both preside way, I have a name; it’s over an extensive Jennifer Messer) gets paid financial network too much for not really do- that has been as- ing very much, leaving the sociated with political presumption that me and the figures ranging from local municipality are doing former Indianapolis something wrong.” Mayor Mrs. Messer pre- to former Marion sented “the facts,” saying, County prosecutor “I have worked with Fishers Carl Brizzi. It’s true for nearly eight years, and that Mrs. Messer’s Fishers was my client two tenure with Fishers years before my husband was pre-dates Rep. Luke elected to Congress. I am Messer’s congres- paid well for my legal services sional career, though but the city is paying less he ran for Congress today for legal services than in 2000 and 2010 it was before its contract with when he challenged my firm. I work diligently for U.S. Rep. Dan Bur- Fishers and have never, in ton, losing 30-28% eight years, taken my job for in a crowded field. granted. My job is a privilege, He served three not just because I love the terms in the Indiana economic development work House and had been that I do, but because I work executive direc- with a group of rock-stars. tor of the Indiana These are people who wake Republican Party. In up every day and want to First Lady Judy O’Bannon (top with Gov. Frank O’Bannon, Maggie Kernan short, Messer has make Fishers a better place with Gov. Joe Kernan, and Susan Bayh on the campaign trail in 2016. (HPI long been seen as a for its residents, potential Photos by Brian A. Howey and Mark Curry) rising star in Hoosier residents and businesses.” politics, and he has Fishers Mayor Scott Fadness defended Mrs. Mess- risen rapidly to the fifth most powerful position in the U.S. er, writing in a Facebook posting, “I have worked with Jen- House. nifer on legal matters for the city since 2010, before her This is one of these stories where no laws were husband was in Congress. Jennifer was the author of our broken. There are no clear ethical violations. By all ac- transition ordinance that transformed our town to a city. counts, she is a talented attorney in her own right. But the Since her start with the city we have transitioned our legal money she made off municipal taxpayers raised eyebrows department from an all-outsourced department to a hybrid in Republican circles. It was a topic among Republicans with some in-house staff and some contractual. Jennifer who didn’t have a bone to pick with Rep. Messer. has stayed on through a contractual professional services Don’t be surprised if this is an active issue through agreement. She is responsible for drafting and negotiating the 2018 Republican primary. a majority of the economic deals that are conducted on behalf of the city. She has an hourly rate that is less than Rokita names finance team $200 an hour and substantively less than what you would Rep. Todd Rokita, R-4th, has taken a step toward find in large firms with this type of special expertise.” launching a U.S. Senate bid by appointing a statewide Fadness added, “I am disappointed at the tone campaign finance staff (Francisco, Fort Wayne Journal of this story. Jennifer is smart, capable, and professional. Gazette). Rokita has named Dan Dumezich to chair the Her work stands on its own and the value that she brings team. Dumezich, an attorney from Schererville, is a former to the city is real, regardless of who she is married to. My treasurer of the and a former goal is to always build the best team for my city, with the state legislator who has worked on campaign finance best experience and expertise.” teams for GOP presidential candidates Donald Trump, Mitt There is a nexus in the Messer/Fadness relation- Romney and George W. Bush. “There is no better political ship. Both have worked extensively with GOP political op- fundraiser in Indiana,” Rokita said in a news release. Other erative Jennifer Hallowell and her husband, former Marion members of Rokita’s finance team include Jamie Weber Page 10 and Dave Buskill, who have worked on Rokita’s House the attorney general, President Trump made the decision campaigns, and Washington-based fundraisers Laura Van to dismiss Comey and start fresh. The FBI needs to move Hove, Jon Graham and Mike Gula. Rokita is considering beyond the political controversies which have consumed it seeking the Republican nomination next year for the seat over the past year. Joe Donnelly is showing his true colors held by Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind. once again with his cynical, politically motivated calls for Democrats aim at Messer, Rokita an investigation. To pacify his liberal political base, which Democrats are running YouTube ads targeting two he admits to voting with nine out of 10 times, DC Joe Don- leading Republicans likely to run for U.S. Senate for their nelly is locking arms with extreme liberals in their phony recent votes in favor of the replace- outrage. Donnelly’s boss, , had lost con- ment (Lange, IndyStar). The six-second advertisement fidence in Comey, until of course President Trump acted released by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Com- within his authority and removed him. should mittee features a mock medical bill with rising costs next expect better from their senator than a rubber stamp for to the words “Drug addiction treatment – pre-existing the divisive, obstructionist policies of Washington liberals.” condition.” It encourages Hoosiers to hold U.S. Reps. Todd Rokita, and accountable for their vote on the Congress: 4th CD Democrats talk measure. Opponents of the House’s health care plan have Democratic 4th District candidates Sherry Shipley criticized the bill for weakening protections against those and Joe Mackey focused on health care issues at separate with pre-existing conditions. events on Tuesday in an effort to find support to win the seat currently occupied by U.S. Rep. Todd Rokita (R-IN). Rokita slams Donnelly over Comey Shipley gathered with Greater Lafayette residents to hear Hoosiers for Rokita released the following state- concerns about the proposed replacement for Obamacare ment regarding Sen. Joe Donnelly’s response to FBI (Tuggle, WBAA). Mackey said that if the ACA is repealed, Director Comey’s dismissal: “Sen. Donnelly knows full well another possible (though not definite) result would be the FBI director serves at the pleasure of the president of small hospitals, like St. Vincent Clay in Brazil, closing, leav- the . Director Comey had lost the confidence ing one hospital for every four or five counties in rural In- of Democrats and Republicans, and in consultation with diana. “Hoosiers are good people but we need to be great when it comes to health care,” Mackey said. “’Trumpcare’

FUELING ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY AND PROSPERITY STATEWIDE

www.indianachamber.com/2025 Page 11 is actually ‘Republicancare’ because they own it” referring Growth Alliance. to the bill that was passed by the U.S. House of Represen- tatives and sent to the U.S. Senate. Counties: Sheriff candidates emerge The race to be the next Marion County sheriff is Siekman weighs another 6th CD in full swing (WTHR-TV). Sheriff John Layton can’t run in An attorney from Rising Sun has kicked off a 2018 because he’s reached his term limit. This week, two CrowdPac campaign to raise funds and gauge support for people threw their names in the hat for his job. Southport a bid in the 6th Congressional District. Democrat Lane Police Chief Tom Vaughn is one of them. Marion County Siekman touts “his lifelong ties to Indiana to give him Sgt. Jim Grimes announced earlier this week he’s seeking insight into the challenges facing district residents, work- the Republican nomination for sheriff. ers, and businesses,” the website stated. “Our healthcare is in jeopardy, public education is not being supported, Parties: Hammond elected Rules vice chair and questions about integrity in government are on the John Hammond III, Indiana’s Republican national minds of many Hoosiers,” according to the Siekman committeeman, was elected as vice chair of the Republican CrowdPac web page. “Yet Luke Messer refuses to talk with National Committee’s Standing Committee on Rules at the his constituents or hold town halls. Rep. Messer must be organization’s spring meeting in San Diego, Cal., a news held responsible. It is also very likely that he will jump to release announced (Howey Politics Indiana). The commit- take on Joe Donnelly for the Senate, leaving the 6th as tee is charged with continuously reviewing the rules of the a open seat in 2018. Either way he must be stopped. We Republican National Committee and proposing updates to cannot afford to just crown another Republican successor those rules. The committee comprises 56 members, one in 2018.” According to WRBI, Siekman has served as legal from each state, territory and the District of Columbia. counsel for many government entities and is the executive Indiana Republican Party Chairman Kyle Hupfer is also at- director of the County Economic Development Cor- tending the spring meeting. v poration and secretary of the southeast Indiana Regional Page 12

done. Nothing is a bad choice. Obamacare, even if becom- TrumpCare political ing more popular, has serious flaws that need to be fixed. Health care will suffer if nothing is done. Democrats quickly pounced on that House version. health for GOP The immediately denounced By JACK COLWELL two Hoosier Republicans, Congressmen Todd Rokita, 4th SOUTH BEND –– The focus of the political stetho- District, and Luke Messer, 6th District, for voting for “this scope, for so long examining the poor health of Democrats horrifying bill” and warned that voters will remember what who voted in Congress for Obamacare, shifts now to mea- they did “the next time Congressmen Messer and Rokita suring the prospects for political health of Republicans who are on the ballot.” voted for Trumpcare. Other Republican House members from Indi- A health care plan, especially if complicated and ana, including , 2nd District, also voted for pushed through without the Trumpcare. But they were not mentioned by name in the public or even supporters in initial blasts. Strange? Not at all. Rokita and Messer are Congress really understanding regarded as top contenders for the Republican nomination the effects, can cause terrible for the Senate for the race against Sen. Joe Donnelly, the health problems for those who Democratic incumbent, in 2018. vote for it. Democrats learned Other Republican House members will be hit later that. Will Republicans now if Democrats find viable challengers. But the most impor- learn the same lesson? tant targets for Democrats now are Messer and Rokita, There is no doubt that because one likely will be in that high profile Senate race. Trumpcare will be a major Democrats want to tattoo on their foreheads their votes issue in the 2018 elections. for Trumpcare. Polls show it is unpopular, Even if the Senate provides a much improved just as Obamacare was when Trumpcare, Democrats still will hammer at that House ver- Republicans hammered it and sion. And Republicans who voted for it will say, as Messer Democrats to win congressional elections. already has, that the House vote was only a needed first Now, ironically, just as Republicans control Con- step. He described the bill as “a green flag, not a check- gress and the presidency and can repeal it, provisions ered flag,” marking the start of the race, not the finish. v of the Affordable Care Act, Obamacare, have become popular. A Gallup poll shows 53% approval of Obamacare, Colwell has covered Indiana politics over five de- highest favorability ever, for the first time over 50%. So cades for the South Bend Tribune. the GOP is having a difficult time figuring out how to dump it without severe health care and political health woes. The monstrosity pushed through the House, with- out hearings or analysis of the cost and impact of what was put together with arm-twisting and political dealing, is no answer to the nation’s health concerns. It was passed The Gary air show joke quickly so that President Trump could claim a victory after By RICH JAMES unflattering reviews of his first 100 days. He gleefully MERRILLVILLE –– The Gary Air Show – or I should celebrated passage with a Rose Garden rally. He called the say the lack of it in recent years – thing “incredibly well crafted.” has become a joke. House Republicans who voted to pass it know It was announced this better. The last thing they want is for that version of week that there won’t be a show in Trumpcare to become law. If it did, they would lose control Gary on the shore of Lake Michigan of the House in 2018. this year. The same was the case in The thing was denounced by doctors, hospi- 2013 and 2014. tals, the AARP, health insurance providers and consumer The cancellation this year groups. Critics said it would knock millions off health insur- is because Gary can’t afford the ance, trim protections for folks with pre-existing condi- $350,000 needed to provide the tions, hurt especially the poor, the middle class, the old support to make the event a reality. and children and provide less care at more cost. Gary Mayor Karen Freeman-Wilson The thing, however, is not going to become law. It said she was unable to find a corporate sponsor. The will be junked in the Senate. So either an improved Trump- mayor had a year to secure the money and apparently was care will emerge, with actual cost and impact clarified and unable to do so. with some of the worst parts eliminated, which is what And I can understand why firms like U.S. Steel House Republicans hope and pray for, or nothing will be Corp. and the Northern Indiana Public Service Co. wouldn’t Page 13 want to pony up the money. Speros Batistatos, the presi- and soft drink from vendors at the show, but they don’t dent and CEO of the South Shore Convention and Visitors spend a dime in the city of Gary. Authority, said the loss of the show is devastating because If it was a financial windfall for Gary, Free- of the hundreds of thousands of people it attracts. Batista- man-Wilson would have found the money to make the tos’ organization used to be one of the sponsors of the show a reality. The show is good for Gary only in that it show and lost $1.4 million over a nine-year span. puts a depressed city on the map. That’s it. I’ve never believed the air show was such a Freeman-Wilson said, “Our first job is to be good good thing for Gary. It has been such a wonderful financial stewards and our team has determined that we cannot af- thing for Gary that Batistatos was going to move the show ford to host the Gary Air Show. We know that a fully spon- far south to Fair Oaks Farms a few years back when it sored show is attainable and we will begin immediately to couldn’t be in Gary on the shores of Lake Michigan be- work on making that happen.” If a fully sponsored show is cause of logistics reasons. attainable, one has to wonder why the city didn’t embark It still was going to be a financial bonus for Lake on that mission a year ago. v County despite the new location, Batistatos said. But it never happened. Heavy rains prior to the show made the Rich James has been writing about state and local farm fields surrounding Fair Oaks unsuitable for parking. government and politics for more than 30 years. He While it is a wonderful show, I’ve never believed it is a is a columnist for The Times of Northwest Indiana. financial benefit for Northwest Indiana. Basically, the visitors drive to the show, watch it for several hours and drive home. They may buy a hot dog

compared with the national 1.8% rate. Parsing Indiana’s We always learn by comparing different periods of time. Thus, from the start the business cycle in 2002 to its end in 2009, our state’s average annual rate of economic anemic GDP growth was just 0.55% (46th) while the nation managed a By MORTON MARCUS 1.4% annual rate. Business boomers, on the other hand, INDIANAPOLIS – It is a pity no town crier rings would favor our 15th-place ranking from 2009 to 2016 our news about the latest data for our nation and state. (2% vs. the nation’s 1.9% GDP growth rate). Last week the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis made Some Hoosiers often prefer the middle ground. public the 2016 GDP figures. Did For the entire 14 years from 2002 to 2016, Indiana’s members of the Indiana General As- economy averaged 1.3% growth while the nation man- sembly or the state administration aged 1.7%. We rode 34th in the GDP derby. pause to study and reflect on these All of these many numbers tell us just one thing: numbers? I doubt it. The national economy is moving along, slowly, but moving Possibly some isolated journal- while Indiana usually lags behind. Yes, we have spurts of ist picked up a news release on the growth, but they are few and far between. Internet, but I doubt it. And what Ah, but the worldly wise will tell you, “Indiana is would that lone soul report? “Indiana changing even faster than the rapid change in the nation.” ranked 42nd of the 50 states with a Statistically, that’s difficult to prove with the data at hand. growth rate of just 0.8% in GDP dur- From the bottom of the in 2009 to the ing the closing three months of 2016, end of 2016, the composition of Indiana’s economy (our compared to the national advance of 1.9%.” industry mix) has changed by just 3.40%, hardly a stun- No s/he didn’t, not if s/he wants to do any inter- ning difference from the nation’s change of 3.37% per- views with state officials in the rest of this calendar year. cent. S/he would have to dig and find something cheerful to Where Indiana was 19.5% different from the give every Hoosier a warm, fuzzy feeling: “Indiana doubled nation in 2008, we have drifted to a 20.2% difference. New York’s economic growth rate in the last quarter of That’s hardly spitting distance. Should we aim to be more 2016. Details at 11, 10 Central time.” This wouldn’t be (or less) like the U.S.? Whichever we choose, when will exactly true, but close enough to be acceptable. our state stop dithering and get moving? v The people who sell the idea that Indiana is in the midst of a boom would discount a single quarter and Mr. Marcus is an economist, writer, and speaker compare 2016 quarter four, with the same quarter a year who may be reached at mortonjmarcus@yahoo. earlier. Then our annual GDP growth rate was 1.4% (23rd) com. Page 14

in both the House and the Senate before passing it on to Pondering regular the president. We had a steady annual process that may have had its difficulties, but offered the country a demo- cratic and politically rational mechanism for deciding on government shutdowns our priorities and how to fund them. By LEE We haven’t followed it since the middle of the BLOOMINGTON – Every few months we have to 1990s. Instead, we’ve been forced to live with a process contemplate the very real possibility that the government marked by high-stakes fiscal brinksmanship. Every impor- might close its doors. Is this really the best we can do? tant decision of government is reflected in the budget, Think about this for a moment. Two days away but now we operate through omnibus spending bills and from a federal shutdown, Congress comes up with a continuing resolutions, all of which put the government stopgap measure to keep the government operating – for more or less on automatic pilot. Operations and processes a week. A few days later it arrives at a bipartisan budget that should be reviewed annually get no real scrutiny. New deal lasting a bit over four months. This, in turn, moves initiatives are rarely considered. the president to take to Twitter with the following state- The current budget deal, negotiated between Re- ment: “Our country needs a good publicans and Democrats, at least has the virtue of having ‘shutdown’ in September to fix included both parties at the table with give and take on mess!” both sides. In Washington these days, that’s what passes With respect to President for good government. But let’s not mistake it for good pro- Trump, this assertion seems cess. Congress is still putting the budget together with no more focused on settling political accountability, no transparency, and scanty debate. Most scores than on the good of the of it is written in secret largely by leadership staff. The country. There is no such thing process largely excludes ordinary members of Congress, as a “good” shutdown. The last except to vote after very limited debate. It offers little op- time it happened, in 2013, it cost portunity to consider amendments or expert testimony, or the economy $24 billion, accord- to conduct careful evaluations of proposed improvements ing to Standard & Poor’s at the and reforms. The ordinary self-corrective mechanisms that time. National institutions get should keep government on an even keel are not operat- shuttered, federal workers are out of a job for an indeter- ing. minate period, federal loans and support for veterans are And here’s the interesting thing: In all my frozen, state and local governments – and all the business- conversations with public officials familiar with the current es, non-profits and community organizations that depend state of affairs, I can’t find a single one who defends it. on them – face cash shortages, and the country’s most They all know it’s bad process. But they keep using it year economically vulnerable must shift for themselves. All that after year. and more happens during a shutdown. This is a real challenge to our representative de- Yet this is the state of budget politics in this era. mocracy. The government faces enormous responsibilities We’re the world’s greatest democracy, and every few at home and abroad, and the budget is the blueprint for months we have to contemplate the very real possibil- how it’s going to deal with them. Isn’t it time we started ity that the government might close its doors. Is this getting it right? v really the best we can do? If the non-profit or business you respect most operated in this manner, would you be Lee Hamilton is a Senior Advisor for the Indiana anything but appalled? Somehow, we’ve allowed ourselves University Center on Representative Government; to see this as standard operating procedure for the federal a Distinguished Scholar, IU School of Global and government. International Studies; and a Professor of Practice, How can it be that the most important docu- IU School of Public and Environmental Affairs. He ment of the federal government – remember, the budget was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives is the national blueprint for what we’ll do and how we’ll for 34 years. do it – gets handled in such a distressing, irrational, inef- fective, uneconomic, and almost nonsensical manner? I’ll tell you how: We keep electing people who tell us they’re distressed about conducting business in this fashion and then year after year fail to get us back on track. Because make no mistake, we know how to do it better. Congress did it for many decades. It handled ap- propriations bills through committee hearings, gathered expert opinions, allowed members to propose improve- ments, and vetted federal taxing and spending thoroughly Page 15

next year’s midterm. Trump imperils 2018 In , King got welcome news last week when term-limited Gov. Paul LePage (R) decided not to run. King probably would have been favored over the combustible GOP Senate gains LePage, but facing a challenge from an often underesti- By KYLE KONDICK mated sitting governor would have made the incumbent’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball life much harder. State Sen. Eric Brakey (R) is running, CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. – As the White House but with credible Democrats likely to take a pass on the lurches from one self-inflicted crisis to the next -- “chaos is race, Brakey’s task is difficult against the popular King. the new normal,” as the Columbia Journalism Review put it Moreover, Maine hasn’t voted out an incumbent senator in in a Tuesday morning headline -- Senate Republicans have nearly four decades (Bill Hathaway, a Democrat, was the to be worried that President Donald Trump’s difficulties will last incumbent to lose, back in 1978). We’re moving this imperil their opportunity to make gains next year despite a race from Leans Independent/Democratic to Likely Inde- very favorable map. pendent/Democratic. While Republicans can and probably will suffer at least some erosion in their House majority next year, with House races significant losses possible but far from guaranteed, the Just last week, we argued that close to two-thirds GOP could end up netting Senate seats next year even in a of the 435 House districts are essentially either too Re- bad environment (and could net several in a good one). A publican or too Democratic to be credibly targeted by the new model from RealClearPolitics suggests that even with other party. But there are a few exceptions: Rep. Collin President Trump at a weak 40% approval -- his current av- Peterson (D, MN-7), for instance, holds a seat that Donald erage approval rating according to the Trump won by 31 points -- a seat poll aggregators -- the likeliest projec- that is significantly more Re- tion would be for no net change in the publican than any other held by Senate. Democrats. As noted previously in the Now there could be Crystal Ball, Republicans are only defending nine seats another exception: a competitive race in a seat that was this cycle (including a special election in Alabama later Trump’s 13th-best district by margin of victory in the entire this year), while Democrats are defending 25 seats (in- country. cluding two held by independents who caucus with the Rep. Evan Jenkins (R, WV-3), a former Democrat Democrats). The Democrats hold 11 Senate seats in states who defeated longtime incumbent Nick Rahall (D) in 2014, that Trump won in the presidential race last year, and all is running against Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV). That cre- but one of those is on the ballot this year (the exception ates an open-seat race in his southern West Virginia seat, is Michigan Sen. Gary Peters). Republicans, meanwhile, which backed Trump by 49 points in 2016, better than his only hold three Senate seats in states won, 42-point statewide margin. However, many voters in this and only one is on the ballot next year (Nevada Sen. Dean ancestrally Democratic, depopulating country district Heller). split their tickets: Gov. (D) won the district by So Republicans have many more targets than 17 points in 2016, 10 points better than his seven-point Democrats do this cycle, but invariably some of those tar- statewide margin. If he wins reelection next year, Manchin gets will develop better for them than others. Two states almost certainly needs to carry WV-3, and probably by where Republican prospects, never particularly strong, more than just a few points. seem to be fading are Maine and Minnesota, where we’re The open seat has attracted a credible Democratic making ratings changes this week. Despite Trump’s near candidate: newly-elected state Sen. . Ojeda, wins in both states -- Hillary Clinton only carried Maine by an Army veteran who unsuccessfully challenged Rahall three points and Minnesota by just half that -- incumbent in the 2014 primary, defeated a sitting Democratic state Sens. (D-MN) and , a Maine in- senator in a primary last year, which was held just a few dependent who caucuses with the Democrats, both appear days after Ojeda was severely beaten in an attack that to be in good position to win next year. may have been politically motivated. Ojeda backed Trump Klobuchar appears unlikely to face a credible last year, just like so many other registered Democrats in opponent as Republicans focus more on the open gover- the district. Several Republicans are either running or con- nors’ race, and she has a significant amount of crossover sidering running, including ex-state Del. Rick Snuffer, who appeal: A poll found her with a 72% approval lost to Rahall in 2012, state Del. Rupie Phillips, and state rating (Morning Consult had her at a less impressive but Republican Party Chairman Conrad Lucas. still strong 63%). Klobuchar moves from Likely Democratic Despite West Virginia’s shift to the Republicans to Safe Democratic, and assuming she wins reelection over the last two decades, open-seat House races in the she could very well be a presidential contender when the state can be quite competitive: In 2014, Rep. Alex Mooney Democratic nomination contest begins in earnest following (R, WV-2) only won by three points in his successful bid to Page 16 replace now-Sen. (R) in the House. flood of new and potentially damaging revelations coming Unique local considerations and the possibility of out of the White House, the circumstances under which plenty of ticket-splitting in WV-3 prompts us to move this those elections are contested a month from now could be open seat from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. significantly different than they are now. We also have a couple of ratings changes in some upcoming special House elections. Alternative Trump ‘deep state’ campaign (R), the GOP’s 2016 gubernatorial WASHINGTON — Enemies from within have nominee, remains a favorite in next week’s Montana House launched a “deep-state” smear campaign, news organi- special election over musician Rob Quist (D). However, zations are acting with ulterior motives, and the worst Republican outside groups have spent about $4 million attacks are yet to come (Peters, New York Times). Pushing to boost Gianforte’s bid, a clear sign that they are taking back against the biggest threat so far to Donald Trump’s the possibility of an upset quite seriously in a statewide young presidency, his most fervent supporters are building “district” that Trump carried by 20 points. Democrats have alternative narratives to run alongside the “establishment” spent a more modest $630,000, although Quist has out- media account — from relatively benign diversions to more raised Gianforte and thus is hardly starved for resources. bizarre conspiracies. The election is next Thursday (May 25), and the likeliest “They’re going to say that Donald Trump has outcome seems to be a Gianforte win in the single digits. Alzheimer’s,” said the president’s friend and longtime as- If that’s what happened, the outcome would continue sociate , who made an online video laying out the trend of Democrats significantly outperforming Clin- how the president’s own cabinet could trigger a never- ton’s 2016 showing in the lion’s share of federal and state used provision of the Constitution’s 25th Amendment to legislative special elections held so far, a positive sign of stage a coup on the grounds that Mr. Trump is mentally Democratic voter engagement in the Trump era. A Quist unsound. “This is the game plan. Watch carefully,” Mr. win, though unlikely, would not be a complete shock given Stone swore. the amount of attention the race has received, and we’re As Americans process a dizzying week of damning moving the race to Leans Republican as a way of allowing revelations about the president — his firing of the F.B.I. for an upset. director, James B. Comey; his disclosure of highly sensitive Meanwhile, we’re still about a month away from intelligence to the Russians; and his plea to Mr. Comey to the much-anticipated special House election in GA-6, drop the bureau’s investigation of his fired national securi- where former congressional aide Jon Ossoff (D) faces for- ty adviser, Michael T. Flynn — Mr. Trump has found shelter mer Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) in what on the right, where the collective judgment of the conser- has become the most expensive House election of all time. vative media and the Republican Party so far seems to be There have been only two nonpartisan polls since the ini- to dismiss the allegations as “fake news,” shift the blame tial round of voting last month: Handel led by two points in and change the subject. one poll and Ossoff led by two in the other. There’s every With varying degrees of credibility and credulity, reason to expect a very close outcome. conservatives have fed stories that Mr. Trump is the victim On Tuesday, former state Rep. Ralph Norman of sabotage by an adversarial intelligence community full appeared to win a primary runoff to become the Republi- of Trojan horse holdovers from the Obama administration. can nominee in SC-5, although his lead over state House v Speaker Pro Tem Tommy Pope -- 200 votes, or about half a percentage point -- was so small that a recount looms. Assuming he is the nominee, Norman starts as a heavy favorite against Archie Parnell (D), a former tax adviser, in a race that hasn’t yet attracted national spend- ing outside of the GOP primary. As with the other special elections, where Parnell performs in relation to Clinton is worth watching: She lost the district by 19 points last year. There’s really no indication that Parnell has much of a shot to win. But we’re going to move this race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican anyway. Why? Because even though these special elections are different, Trump’s problems make them all alike in the sense that the GOP has to constantly be on guard for upsets. Both the SC-5 and GA-6 specials will be on Tuesday, June 20. Given the seemingly endless Page 17

David Brooks, New York Times: At certain times utes but his guests stayed two hours because they liked Donald Trump has seemed like a budding authoritarian, a him so much. v corrupt Nixon, a rabble-rousing populist or a big business corporatist. But as Trump has settled into his White House Jon Webb, Evansville Courier & Press: You role, he has given a series of long interviews, and when don’t need this, Donald. Quit. Look at yourself. Pacing you study the transcripts it becomes clear that funda- around the White House in a ketchup-stained bath robe. mentally he is none of these things. At base, Trump is an Cursing and asking the nearest adviser if you can legally infantalist. There are three tasks that most mature adults have shipped to Chechnya. The media are have sort of figured out by the time they hit 25. Trump gnawing at your ankles again. They accuse you divulg- has mastered none of them. Immaturity is becoming the ing classified information to a hostile country. Interfering dominant note of his presidency, lack of self-control his with investigations. Stabbing Jimmy Hoffa and entomb- leitmotif. First, most adults have learned to sit ing him in the walls of . That last still. But mentally, Trump is still a 7-year-old one’s not true – at least not yet. Give them boy who is bouncing around the classroom. 24 hours and you’ll be the Black Dahlia killer. Trump’s answers in these interviews are not Tuesday evening brought one of the biggest very long — 200 words at the high end — but blockbusters yet. I would say it’s the biggest, he will typically flit through four or five topics but that statement could be outdated within before ending up with how unfair the press is minutes. The New York Times is reporting that to him.His inability to focus his attention makes you asked former FBI director James Comey it hard for him to learn and master facts. He is ill informed to cease the federal investigation into Michael Flynn’s al- about his own policies and tramples his own talking points. leged ties to Russia. They even have a memo drafted by It makes it hard to control his mouth. On an impulse, he Comey himself, in which he lays out a February meeting will promise a tax reform when his staff has done little of in point-by-point detail. It’s the kind of report that makes the actual work. Second, most people of drinking age have Nixon’s skeleton wince. Trump pressed James Comey to achieved some accurate sense of themselves, some inter- close FBI inquiry into former adviser Michael Flynn. Even if nal criteria to measure their own merits and demerits. classified intel to Russia, it’s still classified But Trump seems to need perpetual outside ap- for everyone else. We’re creeping closer to obstruction of proval to stabilize his sense of self, so he is perpetually justice here, pal. And while you’ll still have plenty of GOP desperate for approval, telling heroic fabulist tales about lawmakers and hardcore supporters and right-wing media himself. “In a short period of time I understood everything types go out of their way to defend you, what’s the point? there was to know about health care,” he told Time. “A lot You don’t need this, Donald. Quit. v of the people have said that, some people said it was the single best speech ever made in that chamber,” he told Washington Post: Even in The Associated Press, referring to his joint session speech. , an era of marriage diversity, it remains the most unlikely By Trump’s own account, he knows more about aircraft match: President Trump and his loyal evangelical base. carrier technology than the Navy. According to his inter- In the compulsively transgressive, foul-mouthed, loser- view with , he invented the phrase “priming disdaining, mammon-worshiping billionaire, conservative the pump” (even though it was famous by 1933). Trump Christians “have found their dream president,” according is not only trying to deceive others. His falsehoods are to Jerry Falwell Jr. It is a miracle, of sorts. In a recent attempts to build a world in which he can feel good for an analysis, the Pew Research Center found that more than instant and comfortably deceive himself. He is thus the all- three-fourths of white evangelical Christians approve of time record-holder of the Dunning-Kruger effect, the phe- Trump’s job performance, most of them “strongly.” With nomenon in which the incompetent person is too incompe- these evangelicals comprising about a quarter of the tent to understand his own incompetence. Trump thought electorate, their support is the life jacket preventing Trump he’d be celebrated for firing James Comey. He thought his from slipping into unrecoverable political depths. The es- press coverage would grow wildly positive once he won sence of Trump’s appeal to conservative Christians can be the nomination. He is perpetually surprised because reality found in his otherwise anodyne commencement speech at does not comport with his fantasies. . “Being an outsider is fine,” Trump said. Third, by adulthood most people can perceive “Embrace the label.” And then he promised: “As long as I how others are thinking. For example, they learn subtle am your president, no one is ever going to stop you from arts such as false modesty so they won’t be perceived as practicing your faith.” Trump presented evangelicals as a obnoxious. But Trump seems to have not yet developed a group of besieged outsiders, in need of a defender. This theory of mind. Other people are black boxes that sup- sense of grievance and cultural dispossession — the com- ply either affirmation or disapproval. As a result, he is mon ground between The Donald and the faithful — runs weirdly transparent. He wants people to love him, so he is deep in evangelical Christian history. v constantly telling interviewers that he is widely loved. In Trump’s telling, every meeting was scheduled for 15 min- Page 18

ers. Holcomb will visit Michigan City, people I think Putin pays: Rohrabach- Mueller named to sign new Indiana State legisla- er and Trump,” McCarthy (R-Calif.) special prosecutor tion that will provide funding for the said, according to a recording of the double-tracking of the South Shore June 15, 2016, exchange, which was WASHINGTON — The Jus- Line between Gary and Michigan City listened to and verified by The Wash- tice Department appointed Robert S. (WIMS). Holcomb, Mayor Ron Meer ington Post. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher Mueller III, a former F.B.I. director, and several guests will take a ceremo- is a Californian Republican known in as special counsel on Wednesday to nious ride on the South Shore Line. Congress as a fervent defender of oversee the investigation into ties Putin and Russia. House Speaker Paul between President Trump’s campaign Holcomb returns D. Ryan immediately interjected, and Russian officials, dramatically stopping the conversation from further raising the legal and political stakes in to DC lobbyst Hohlt exploring McCarthy’s assertion, and an affair that has threatened to engulf swore the Republicans present to se- Mr. Trump’s four-month-old presidency INDIANAPOLIS — Gov. Eric crecy. Before the conversation, McCar- (Washington Post). The decision by Holcomb has turned the reins of thy and Ryan had emerged from sepa- the deputy attorney gen- Indiana’s lobbying efforts back to a rate talks at the Capitol with Ukrainian eral, Rod J. Rosenstein, D.C. insider who has expe- Prime Minister Vladimir­ Groysman, came after a cascade of rience pushing the state’s who had described a Kremlin tactic damaging developments interests (Kelly, Fort Wayne of financing populist politicians to un- for Mr. Trump in recent Journal Gazette). Deborah dercut Eastern European democratic days, including his abrupt Hohlt has returned as the institutions. News had just broken the dismissal of the F.B.I. state’s primary lobbyist after day before in The Washington Post director, James B. Comey, and the serving in that role for eight that Russian government hackers had subsequent disclosure that Mr. Trump years under former Gov. Mitch Dan- penetrated the computer network asked Mr. Comey to drop the investi- iels. When then-Gov. Mike Pence came of the Democratic National Commit- gation of his former national security on in 2013 he went another direction tee, prompting McCarthy to shift the adviser, Michael T. Flynn. “My decision with , who is now his chief conversation from Russian meddling in is not a finding that crimes have been of staff in the Vice President’s office. Europe to events closer to home. committed or that any prosecution is warranted,” Mr. Rosenstein added. “I McCormick will Fox News founder have made no such determination.” In a statement, Mr. Trump said, “As I review vouchers Ailes dies at age 77 have stated many times, a thorough INDIANAPOLIS — Republican investigation will confirm what we state Superintendent Jennifer McCor- WASHINGTON — Fox News already know — there was no collu- mick told NPR Indiana’s voucher pro- reported this morning that network sion between my campaign and any gram should be reviewed to determine founder Roger Ailes died today at age foreign entity. I look forward to this whether it’s a wise use of tax dollars. 77. Ailes was fired from Fox News matter concluding quickly.” “You know, we’re spending roughly after a number of sexual harassment suits were leveled at the network. Holcomb to sign $146 million on a program and not really reviewing it,” she said. “That is Special judge for East Chicago bill irresponsible.” ex-Columbus mayor INDIANAPOLIS — The McCarthy: Trump governor’s office announced that paid by Putin COLUMBUS — The former Gov. Holcomb will ceremonially sign mayor of Columbus who filed a lawsuit HEA1344, regarding assistance for KIEV, Ukraine — A month against the city’s police department residents in lead contaminated areas before Donald Trump clinched the was unsuccessful in getting the case of East Chicago. The event is slated to Republican nomination, one of his moved out of Bartholomew County begin at 11:30 a.m. CDT at Riley Park closest allies in Congress — House (WCSI). However, the case brought Recreation Pavilion in East Chicago. Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy — by Kristen Brown will be heard by a Among those joining the governor will made a politically explosive assertion special judge. The former mayor has be State Sen. Ed Charbonneau (R-Val- in a private conversation on Capitol been battling city officials on issues poraiso), State Sen. Lonnie Randolph Hill with his fellow GOP leaders: that related to information being made (D-East Chicago), State Rep. Earl Trump could be the beneficiary of pay- available to the public since she was Harris, Jr. (D-East Chicago) and other ments from Russian President Vladimir replaced by current Mayor Jim Lien- state and local officials and stakehold- Putin (Washington Post). “There’s two hoop in January.